Can Hamilton make the HOF?

[Screwball]

While it's obviously very early in Hamilton's career, I still think it's fun to specualte on what kind of great achievements the guy can accomplish. I started thinking about it after I read this part from the Enquirer, or more specifically, Bill Koch:



"He's just a treat to watch out there," Freel said. "He's opening a lot of people's eyes. I'm his biggest fan. I knew he had this ability in him. This guy can play.

"If his timing was where it should have been and he was up here when he should have been up here, I really think he could have been a Hall of Fame player. That's the kind of talent he has."

Maybe Hamilton has started too late to reach that level, but Narron says there are no limits to what he can achieve in his career.


Has Hamilton started out too late to put up HOF numbers? What if he's able to average 35-40 HRs/yr over the next 10-12 years with gold glove defense, .300+ average, and multiple All-Star appearances? Of course he'd actually have to do all that, but if he did I got to think that would be enough to get into the HOF. I'd like to hear some input as to what everyone else thinks.

[Degenerate39]

If he keeps hitting like he has been.

[BCubb2003]

It's the Hall of Fame, not the Hall of Stats.

[44Magnum]

It's possible.

[flyer85]

The answer is the probability is extremely small.

[Degenerate39]

It's the Hall of Fame, not the Hall of Stats.

If that were true he'd already be in there because of his story.

[Edskin]

Hall of Fame? Why stop there?

Maybe he should make a run at the Oval Office?

Let's give him a tad more time folks.....

[RedEye]

I may be wrong, but there must be quite a few players in the HOF who started their careers at around age 25. Sure, Hamilton missed out on a few years because of the addiction, but he's still pretty young in baseball terms. Of course, it's WAY premature to be talking about this stuff. But yeah, if he stays healthy, I see him as having as good a chance as the next extremely-talented 25 year-old OF. You never know what the years ahead will bring, but he seems to be beyond flukedom at this point, right?

[OldXOhio]

Speculation, fun...whatever you call it, I can't believe this discussion is even being had.

[UC_Ken]

Are we seriously discussing wether a player with a month's MLB experience can make the HOF?

As far as can someone who is a rookie at 25 be a HOF player I say yes. I think you need 10 great seasons and he could do that. Griffey was a HOF player after 10 seasons in Seattle although he was a rookie at 19. Scouts have said Hamilton was in Griffey's class as a prospect coming out of HS so I don't see why Hamilton couldn't but the much better question to ask is can Hamilton have a long career without revisiting his deamons.

[Ltlabner]

If he keeps frowning after striking out, he's got my vote!

[Will M]

Speculation, fun...whatever you call it, I can't believe this discussion is even being had.

You are correct. What we really need to be discussing is Can Homer Bailey make the HOF? Hamilton's a lock. :D

[RedsBaron]

It's the Hall of Fame, not the Hall of Stats.

If by that you mean that "fame," not "stats", is the standard by which a candidate's chances for HOF induction are to be judged, then Don Larsen, Johnny Vander Meer, Roger Maris and Bobby Thomson would be in the Hall of Fame.
Hamilton's HOF chances are very slim at this point and it is way, way too premature to really evaluate his chances, but he's only 25 years old. He certainly could still have a HOF worthy career, but it would have to be primarily because of spectacular peak seasons rather than huge career numbers, the hitter equivalent of Sandy Koufax rather than Warren Spahn.
Jackie Robinson made the HOF despite not making the majors until age 28. Yes, Jackie made the HOF in large part to his having broken the color line, but his stats themselves were HOF worthy. Based solely upon his on-field performance, at his peak Jackie Robinson was one the half dozen or so greatest secondbasemen ever. He would have been worthy of the HOF had he merely been another white ballplayer.

[Screwball]

Speculation, fun...whatever you call it, I can't believe this discussion is even being had.

I figured there would be some response like this. Obviously, his one good month+ doesn't mean there should be HOF talk. I just found it curious that Freel said Hamilton started too late, as in he won't ever be able to get in the HOF. I simply wanted some others' opinions as to whether they agreed or not. I thought I had made myself clear in my original post, but apparently not.

[membengal]

The question is valid, from the sense that Freel seems to assume it is too late for Hamilton to hypothetically make it, given the relatively late start to his career.

To put it in perspective, if Hamilton averaged 35 homeruns a year for the next ten years, and 200 hits a season over that time and had 10 all-star appearances, I am pretty sure that 350 homeruns, 2000 hits and the all-star games would not be enough to get him (or the hypothetical anyplayer) in. So Freel's assumption isn't that off-base, on the surface. Fun thing about baseball is that every so often, assumptions get busted.

[RedsBaron]

[QUOTE=membengal;1333908]

To put it in perspective, if Hamilton averaged 35 homeruns a year for the next ten years, and 200 hits a season over that time and had 10 all-star appearances, I am pretty sure that 350 homeruns, 2000 hits and the all-star games would not be enough to get him (or the hypothetical anyplayer) in. QUOTE]

If Hamilton averages 35 HRs and 200 hits for the next ten seasons, and makes the all star team each season, I will guarantee that he will make the HOF.
Forget "hypothetical anyplayer"--try Joe DiMaggio. In his career DiMaggio had 2214 hits and 361 HRs. In his first ten seasons DiMaggio had 1853 hits and 303 HRs, while making the all star team each season.
If a player can average 35 HRs and 200 hits a season for a decade, he has a terrific case for HOF induction, absent some other negative factor such as steroid enhanced performance or betting on the game.

[Rotater Cuff]

Are we seriously discussing wether a player with a month's MLB experience can make the HOF?



Can you seriously question whether we can seriously discuss any matter of the utmost inconsequence?
It is not our right to argue, propose, disagree, rebut, retool or castigate anyone for the offense of unseriousness. We are here, first and foremost, to have fun, and seriousness should never be taken seriously around here.
Seriously

[Cyclone792]

If Hamilton averages 145 games per season for the next 12 seasons, he'd be around 1,750 career games by that point. If any player's rate of production is high enough and includes some solid peak seasons, that's a long enough career to warrant serious Hall of Fame consideration.

So yes, the question is valid in the sense that Hamilton is still young enough to reach 1,750 games played - and possibly 2,000 games played - in order to be a legitimate Hall of Fame candidate, but it will be quite a bit tougher for him now than if he made his major league debut at the age of 22 or so.

Here's a list of Hall of Fame outfielders with less than 2,000 games played ...


Player Games Years

LF Ed Delahanty 1,835 1888-1903
LF Joe Medwick 1,984 1932-1948
LF Ralph Kiner 1,472 1946-1955
LF Joe Kelley 1,842 1891-1908
LF Jim O'Rourke 1,774 1876-1904
LF Chick Hafey 1,283 1924-1937

Player Games Years

CF Joe DiMaggio 1,736 1936-1951
CF Edd Roush 1,967 1913-1931
CF Billy Hamilton 1,591 1888-1901
CF Kirby Puckett 1,783 1984-1995
CF Larry Doby 1,533 1947-1959
CF Earl Averill 1,669 1929-1941
CF Hack Wilson 1,348 1923-1934
CF Hugh Duffy 1,737 1888-1906
CF Earle Combs 1,454 1924-1935
CF Lloyd Waner 1,993 1927-1945

Player Games Years

RF Elmer Flick 1,482 1898-1910
RF King Kelly 1,455 1878-1893
RF Kiki Cuyler 1,879 1921-1938
RF Chuck Klein 1,753 1928-1944
RF Ross Youngs 1,211 1917-1926

Many of the guys in the above list were 19th century players, and they only played seasons that were 130 games (or fewer in some instances if earlier than the 1890s). Other guys such as Chick Hafey and Ross Youngs are among some of the worst Hall of Fame selections in baseball history.

But some names stand out among the crowd ...

Joe DiMaggio - who's never heard of him? - only played in 1,736 games. Granted, he did lose three seasons to WWII, but he's a Hall of Famer regardless of compensating for his war service years.

Kirby Puckett was a fan favorite who recently made the Hall, and he only played 1,783 games before retiring due to glaucoma.

Edd Roush is the greatest center fielder in Reds history, a well-deserving baseball Hall of Famer, and an underrated player IMO ... and he made the Hall while only playing 1,967 games.

Ralph Kiner played only 10 seasons and retired at the age of 32 and only played 1,472 games for his entire career. Some people feel he may not be deserving of a plaque in Cooperstown, but Kiner got in largely because he accomplished a remarkable feat of leading the National League in home runs for seven straight seasons from 1946-1952.

[Carin4Narron]

Did Roy Hobbs make the HOF?

[dfs]

The instant comparable would be Edgar Martinez. The Mariners didn't get Edgar a regular gig till he was 27 a year older than Hamilton. Doubtful that Edgar is going to draw any significant HOF support from the writers, but I never know what they're going to do...so there you go. You've got to be better than Martinez and tremendously consistant. It would probably help to get on the post season stage a couple of times and do something good there.

[RedsBaron]

Did Roy Hobbs make the HOF?

If he had had ten seasons like the one year he had with the Knights he would have.;)

[BRM]

The instant comparable would be Edgar Martinez. The Mariners didn't get Edgar a regular gig till he was 27 a year older than Hamilton. Doubtful that Edgar is going to draw any significant HOF support from the writers, but I never know what they're going to do...so there you go. You've got to be better than Martinez and tremendously consistant. It would probably help to get on the post season stage a couple of times and do something good there.

Edgar has the career DH thing working against him though. Josh has the potential to end up with a few Gold Gloves on his resume as well.

[RedsBaron]

The instant comparable would be Edgar Martinez. The Mariners didn't get Edgar a regular gig till he was 27 a year older than Hamilton. Doubtful that Edgar is going to draw any significant HOF support from the writers, but I never know what they're going to do...so there you go. You've got to be better than Martinez and tremendously consistant. It would probably help to get on the post season stage a couple of times and do something good there.

Martinez is a decent comp, but he didn't average 200 hits and 35 HRs a season while making the all star team each season for ten years, the hypothetical set forth in membengal's post. Martinez only had one season with 30+ HRs (37) and never had a 200 hit season. He made 7 all star teams in his 18 year career.

[WMR]

Reds Hall of Fame would be more probable. :)

[Heath]

I may be wrong, but there must be quite a few players in the HOF who started their careers at around age 25. Sure, Hamilton missed out on a few years because of the addiction, but he's still pretty young in baseball terms. Of course, it's WAY premature to be talking about this stuff. But yeah, if he stays healthy, I see him as having as good a chance as the next extremely-talented 25 year-old OF. You never know what the years ahead will bring, but he seems to be beyond flukedom at this point, right?

Super Joe Charbonneau says :wave:

[KronoRed]

Hamtilon is so great they will give him the Hall Of Hamilton..on Mars, because he will be the first man there.

:D

[terminator]

As a theoretical matter, I think Kirby Puckett's entrance into the HOF clearly makes the answer to the question "yes." Kirby played 12 seasons starting at age 24. He played 9 "full" seasons and 3 mostly full seasons. So, yes, Hamilton is young enough to have sufficient playing time ahead of him to get into the HOF.

[membengal]

[QUOTE=membengal;1333908]

To put it in perspective, if Hamilton averaged 35 homeruns a year for the next ten years, and 200 hits a season over that time and had 10 all-star appearances, I am pretty sure that 350 homeruns, 2000 hits and the all-star games would not be enough to get him (or the hypothetical anyplayer) in. QUOTE]

If Hamilton averages 35 HRs and 200 hits for the next ten seasons, and makes the all star team each season, I will guarantee that he will make the HOF.
Forget "hypothetical anyplayer"--try Joe DiMaggio. In his career DiMaggio had 2214 hits and 361 HRs. In his first ten seasons DiMaggio had 1853 hits and 303 HRs, while making the all star team each season.
If a player can average 35 HRs and 200 hits a season for a decade, he has a terrific case for HOF induction, absent some other negative factor such as steroid enhanced performance or betting on the game.

RedsBaron...perhaps. But, the HoF process has changed a bit since DiMaggio went in. We are in an era of hyper-inflated stats due to live ball or steroids or over-expansion or whatever, and that would, I believe, dim the prospects of our hypothetical anyplayer with the ten years of stats I laid out earlier. For the same reason that I wonder about whether Barry Larkin will ever make the hall, I would think our hypothetical anyplayer would not have enough "counting" stats in today's outsized numbers environment to get there...

[jojo]

How about speculating about what hat he'd wear if inducted?

[membengal]

Oh jojo, ever bitter... and the discussion here is turning to whether 10 years of superlative stats from anyplayer (hitter) is enough to get HoF induction. Think of someone else other than Hamilton if it helps. What say you? I don't think 10 great years from anyone is enough nowadays. Joe D was a long time ago and in a market far, far away...

[jojo]

Oh jojo, ever bitter... and the discussion here is turning to whether 10 years of superlative stats from anyplayer (hitter) is enough to get HoF induction. Think of someone else other than Hamilton if it helps. What say you? I don't think 10 great years from anyone is enough nowadays. Joe D was a long time ago and in a market far, far away...

There's nothing bitter about thinking speculative HOF discussions are best had after 3000 PA, not 100.... that was the point of the hat comment (seems really on target with the thread IMHO).... five years is a long time and alot of things can happen. I try pretty hard to contribute to the community as best I can so please, keep the personal attacks private. :thumbup:

[membengal]

Wasn't trying to attack you, personally or otherwise, jojo, was genuinely curious about your thoughts on the hypothetical anyplayer and whether the inflated numbers era we are in requires more than a ten year period of greatness for entrance to the HoF nowadays. Of course such discussions as it relates to anybody, Hamilton or no, are beyond ridiculous after one month of at-bats. That's pretty obvious. I was interested in the larger queston of how much sustained excellence and over how long a time it would take to get to the HoF nowadays. Seems that Freel's comment as highlighted in the first post in this thread is a nice stepping off point for that discussion. No biggie.

[RedLegsToday]

I'm pretty sure this guy:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/r/ricesa01.shtml

is the only position player to make the Hall of Fame while debuting at age 25.

[BCubb2003]

Johnny Bench was declared a "Hall of Famer for sure" during his first 26 games.

[KronoRed]

How about speculating about what hat he'd wear if inducted?

D-rays.

[Always Red]

Johnny Bench was declared a "Hall of Famer for sure" during his first 26 games.

And Bench was 19 years old at the time.

[BCubb2003]

And Bench was 19 years old at the time.

And batting .163

[Always Red]

And batting .163

But he could hold those 7 baseballs in one hand :D

I wonder if Johnny made the "Baseball's Top 50 Players" of 1967? ;)

[KronoRed]

Johnny Bench was declared a "Hall of Famer for sure" during his first 26 games.

Ted Williams made that declaration I believe