Blow it up, Wayne!

[RedEye]

Okay, folks. Inspired by JD over at Red Reporter, I think it's time to detenate this team. After watching painful game after painful game, I've arrived at rock bottom. The 2007 Reds aren't really different than last year's team, but they left their smoke and mirrors in their dirty gym shorts that they put in the laundry.

I'd like to be optimistic, I really would, but at this time Josh Hamilton is all that keeps me watching these games. I fully expect that our "meaningful" season will be over within the next three to four weeks at the most. So... I have a question and I want to see what you all think of my answer and then how you would answer it as well.

How would you rebuild this roster quickly and decisively to contend in 2009 or 2010?

Here's my sketchy plan:

I'm thinking we have enough promising youngsters in the pipeline to provide a boost within the next two years. I think Bruce, Bailey, Cueto, Votto, Valaika, Watson, Wood, and Stubbs all project as viable major leaguers. Assuming that they all arrive between 2008 and 2010, IMO we should clean house and keep around only our most foundational talent on the Reds (read: relatively young and worth the investment).

Six Players to keep:

Harang (solid #2, veteran model for young pitchers, signed to a LTC)
Hamilton (no brainer)
Phillips (versatile young INF defender, serviceable bet, charismatic leader)
Dunn (at least through 2009 can provide an offensive centerpiece)
Coffey (untradeable right now, should improve later)
Belisle (future swing man)

Bray (see Coffey)

Six Players to trade at deadline:

Griffey (maybe not an option, but this guy needs to go if we can swing it)
Gonzalez (trade him while he's hitting; his D is overrated; sell high)
Encarnacion (good potential but replaceable by Valaika or the like)
Arroyo (signed to reasonable contract; sell high)
Lohse (see Arroyo, Gonzalez)
Freel (see Arroyo, Gonzalez, Lohse)

Seven Players to cut unceremoniously if not traded by the end of this year:

Milton, Stanton, Weathers, Guardado, Majewksi, Hatteberg, Conine

I really think we need to start over, guys. If we try to retain too much of this roster, I have a feeling this team will continue a slow burn. Let's blow it up and start the fables of the reconstruction!

What say you?

[BucksandReds]

Decent post. I keep Hatte and Conine because, they're cheap, they are average MLB players (we don't have that at every position) and you would get nothing in return.

I keep Freel. Again cheap, versatile, great attitude, not much trade value.

Gonzalez will not get much in return, we pay him but 4 Mil and he's actually not bad (even if he reverts to his norm).

Lohse - trade, trade, trade. We can't pay him next year and this will be the best year of his career so maybe we can get a good young bullpen guy from a team making a playoff push that's looking to use him to help them win a few extra games to get in.

Arroyo- he's been consistently good, we need good starters and he wouldn't attract that much trade value.

Griffey - If he'll resign for 2 more years at v cheap I keep him. If he wants max dollar in 09 -10 then I trade his *ss tommorrow just to save money.

EE - lets see what a team will offer

Dunn - I agree. keep him . the more I think about it the more I see that we need his offense and won't get much for him.

[Jefferson24]

I'm in favor of blowing up the pen but I like some of the other position players and I don't want to see them go. I also like 3 of the starters and wish they could all return to be here in a few years when we are actually a better team. I do like the idea of getting some of the younger players up here rather quickly though.

[reds44]

Isn't the point of a fire sale to build for the future? What good is trading a 24 year old 3rd baseman not even at arby yet who had a real good year last year going to do? He's struggling, but according to you it's a rebuilding year anyway. Get him as many ABs as possible.

The fact that Dunn is on your keep this makes it lose credibility IMO. A flawed hitter making alot of money who is a free agent after next year.

Now, nobody is unouchable, but this is who I would like to keep:
Harang
Arroyo
Hamilton
Phillips
Encarnacion
Belisle
Bray

The rest are expendable, at the right price of course.

[roby]

I'm in favor of blowing up the pen but I like some of the other position players and I don't want to see them go. I also like 3 of the starters and wish they could all return to be here in a few years when we are actually a better team. I do like the idea of getting some of the younger players up here rather quickly though.

I agree with Jefferson 24's more moderate approach. I would keep Arroyo and Encarnacion. They are both young enough to contribute in a couple of years while still being more than reasonable expense-wise. I would like to see Votto, Dumatrait, Livingstone, and maybe Cueto at the major league level soon. I would bring Homer up as soon as the experts felt he was ready. i think that you have to probably unload Dunn and Coffey..even if you don't get a lot for them. They are not going to hel-p you win. Jay Bruce and Votto, added to what the Reds already have in Philips, Encarnacion, and Hamilton make things look pretty promising for the near future. The starting rotation is pretty much fixed with Harang, Arroyo, Belisile when you add in Bailey and maybe Dumatrait, Livingstone and/or Cueto. As is obvious, the bullpen is where the problem is...and I am at a total loss as to what to do about it. I do like Salmon and Coutlangus. Other than that, who knows?

[KoryMac5]

I agree with Jefferson I think this team has some workable parts. I am not ready for 4 or 5 more years of rebuilding. You make a move or two to stabilize the pen and go from there.

[SMcGavin]

I'm not so sure it's time to blow it up. The lineup and rotation have been plenty good, the only thing that needs to be blown up is the pen. We are actually +6 in run differential so it's not like this team is getting blown away every night. Now I'm not saying we go and trade young guys for help this year, but I think trading the likes of Arroyo and Encarnacion is a bad idea. With a revamped bullpen and a weak division I don't know why the Reds can't compete in 2008. Now as for Lohse, I am all for dealing him at the deadline.

I'm also all for trying some of the minor leaguers up in the bullpen so we can build a reasonable core of guys going into next year. We need to find 3-4 reliable relievers, even if we have to try 15 players to find them.

[WVPacman]

No way should we trade almost everybody off and rebuild when its mainly our bullpen thats cost us alot of wins.Heres who I would keep!!


Harang
Arroyo
Hamilton
Phillips
Dunn
Sarrloos
Belisle
Coffey
Freel
Gonzalez
Hattiberg
Conine
Coutlangus
Salmon

The players that I want traded

Milton
Stanton
Valentine
Weathers
Griffey
All the bullpen needs to go except for the ones I wrote on top.

The players that im still on the fence about
Lohse

David Ross

[RedsFanWC]

Keep:

Harang
Arroyo
Belisle
Hamilton
Phillips
Coutlangus
Salmon

Ross (great D, bat will come around to the tune of 250 with 15 HRs, hes already back above the mendoza line, just behind EE in avg and ahead in HR)

Dunn (hes only valuable to us right now because his option is voided if he is traded so he is a rental whether we trade him this year or next)

Griffey (too much contract to move, is proving he can still hit, can bridge the gap until Bruce is ready)

Freel (wont get good value on trade market, valuable supersub and provides hustle that is exciting to watch)

Hopper (valuable pinch hitter/runner, great player to have on the bench)

EE (id love to upgrade at 3B but that is going to cost way too much so hes the best option and the reds must hope he snaps out of it and turns into the offensive player they need him to be from the right side)

Gonzalez (reds dont have an inhouse replacement, some range evaluators may say he is overrated but he has shown some flashes and there wont be much in free agency available here either)

Saarloos (debatable and could go either way, i say keep because he i think can provide a relatively consistent arm in the pen)

Coffey (can be effective, needs to stick to his quality pitches and stop experimenting, but still young and can bounce back in either majors or AAA)


Trade at Deadline:

Lohse (eligible for free agency, boras client, gonna lose him anyway so try and get some prospects in return)

Hatteberg and Conine (Hope that Votto can step up and take over 1B next year, these two might bring something small from a contender at the deadline)


Release/Dont Resign:

Weathers, Stanton, Santos (too old, not enough potential, only going to decline)

Castro (as long as EE's defense keeps improving, he loses value as a defensive sub, also declining as he gets older)

Milton (free agent, dont resign him)

Valentin (had a good year last year as a pinch hitter, im skeptical whether that can be repeated, a defensive liability at both catcher and 1B)


Replacements:

Votto replaces Hatteberg

Bailey replaces Lohse

Livingston/Dumatrait replaces Milton

Bray replaces Stanton

McBeth replaces Santos

Keppinger replaces Castro

Trade for/Sign backup catcher to replace Valentin

Trade for/Sign right handed first basemen to backup Votto/replace Conine (if there arent any good options keep Conine for one more year)

Trade for/Sign a closer to replace Weathers

[AmarilloRed]

I would resign Lohse if we can .He could be an integral part of this rotation for years. I dont trade him for prospects until it is clear we cant sign him. I want to add Bailey to Lohse. Too many want to get rid of Lohse,although he has the second best era on the team and hasnt done anything to be traded.

[noskill27]

I think the problem with the entire team is that everyone save the starting pitching (and probably Griffey) has absolutely no idea what their role will be day to day. Will Dunn bat 3rd or 6th? Will Coffey pitch in the 8th of a close game or the 4th of a blowout? Will Hamilton or EE start today? Will Weathers or Stanton close?

I'd like to see what this team could do under a Sweet Lou or Trader Jack before blowing it up. I'm convinced that Narron is the cause of the inconsistancy...

[BucksandReds]

I would resign Lohse if we can .He could be an integral part of this rotation for years. I dont trade him for prospects until it is clear we cant sign him. I want to add Bailey to Lohse. Too many want to get rid of Lohse,although he has the second best era on the team and hasnt done anything to be traded.

At this rate and the current market for pitchers he is going to get about a 4 year 35 Million dollar contract and maybe alot more if he keeps pitching this well. This is his career year and you NEVER sign a free agent after their career year. It bites you in the *ss infinitely more than it works out.

[RedsMan3203]

For what its worth - i'm not calling it a carrer year.

The kid has a great live arm, he can push the gun into the mid 90's and working on a change up.

I believe he is starting to figure out how to pitch... I'll sign him for 2/3 years 7-10 mill a year.

[WVRedsFan]

Okay, folks. Inspired by JD over at Red Reporter, I think it's time to detenate this team. After watching painful game after painful game, I've arrived at rock bottom. The 2007 Reds aren't really different than last year's team, but they left their smoke and mirrors in their dirty gym shorts that they put in the laundry.
It might be a little early for this, but I agree with the idea. This team has not improved much in Wayne's 19-month (or thereabouts) tneure, so it's time to mold that winner the owner was talking about.


I'm thinking we have enough promising youngsters in the pipeline to provide a boost within the next two years. I think Bruce, Bailey, Cueto, Votto, Valaika, Watson, Wood, and Stubbs all project as viable major leaguers. Assuming that they all arrive between 2008 and 2010, IMO we should clean house and keep around only our most foundational talent on the Reds (read: relatively young and worth the investment).
Well, trusting minor leaguers to be viable major leaguers is pretty much the worst kind of crap shoot. Witness Brandon Larson and even Chris Denorfia. And you might add Ryan Wagner to this list also. I don't know...


Six Players to keep:

Harang (solid #2, veteran model for young pitchers, signed to a LTC)
Hamilton (no brainer)
Phillips (versatile young INF defender, serviceable bet, charismatic leader)
Dunn (at least through 2009 can provide an offensive centerpiece)
Coffey (untradeable right now, should improve later)
Belisle (future swing man)

Bray (see Coffey)
I agree with all but Bray. I don't propose trading or DFA-ing Bray, but I just don't see his value. Of course, he's cheap and might develop into something, but I doubt it.


Six Players to trade at deadline:

Griffey (maybe not an option, but this guy needs to go if we can swing it)
Gonzalez (trade him while he's hitting; his D is overrated; sell high)
Encarnacion (good potential but replaceable by Valaika or the like)
Arroyo (signed to reasonable contract; sell high)
Lohse (see Arroyo, Gonzalez)
Freel (see Arroyo, Gonzalez, Lohse)
Griffey - no. he needs to finish out his career here and is probably the most productive bat on the team. I said probably. He's the star that everyone comes to see. NO.

Gonzalez - no. You need a good ss and he is one. He's cheap so keep him
EdE - no. He'll be a star someday when a real manager comes here.
Arroyo - no. why trade your best pitcher just because he's cheap. If we're going young, you need something to stay in games.
Lohse - since he had a one year deal, trade him at the deadline.
Freel - turn him into prospects. Now.


Seven Players to cut unceremoniously if not traded by the end of this year:

Milton, Stanton, Weathers, Guardado, Majewksi, Hatteberg, Conine

I really think we need to start over, guys. If we try to retain too much of this roster, I have a feeling this team will continue a slow burn. Let's blow it up and start the fables of the reconstruction!
Totally agree with Milton, Stanton, Weathers, Majewski, Hatteberg and Conine. I might try to trade Milton and Stanton for prospects and eat the salaries and i might to move Scott and Conine at the deadline, but I agree with your premise. No sense in carrying this payroll to go 14-19 with little hope of recovering. I might add Ross to that list too. I just can't see him recovering to be what he was last year. And add Castro to the mix of DFA's. Why he's here, evn though he's more than likeable, is a mystery.


What say you?

The original "Blow it up" was coined by RFS62 and I agreed with it so much, I used it as my signature for awhile--until it became apparent that we were throwing stuff at the wall hoping it would stick. It is time for a new plan and for the most part, this is well thought out. This plan does require patience and, IMHO, new leadership, though. I don't know is Bob Castillini is patient enough for this and I don't know if Krivskyh could pull this off. I sure as heck don't believe Narron could manage a bunch of youngsters. So the problems are many and the time is short. Not bad, though.

[RedsMan3203]

Magic has options, so i'd LIKE to see him called up to replace Coffey who also has options.

Lets see how he does..

If he does well, and Coffey goes down and gets his head on stright and arm rested up.. Call him back up to replace Stanton...

Stanton, Saarloos, and Santos are all on barrowed time.

Once Bray gets healthly he'll be back up, Same with Burton (Has about 3 weeks left on rehab).

So This is what i'd do, like yesterday.

Call up Magic, Send down Coffey. (Let him REST down there)
Call up McBeth, DFA Santos.
Once Healthly - Call up Coffey/Bray, DFA Stanton
Replace Burton on the roster for Saarloos.

[coachw513]

For what its worth - i'm not calling it a carrer year.

The kid has a great live arm, he can push the gun into the mid 90's and working on a change up.

I believe he is starting to figure out how to pitch... I'll sign him for 2/3 years 7-10 mill a year.

First, IF the Reds decide he's not just in one of those "pitching for a contract" modes and is indeed taking it to a new level of excellence the deal would have to be done before end of season...

And I don't think it happens, with Boras (isn't he??) the agent for Lohse...he'll make sure Lohse goes on the open market and then it's over (IMHO unfortunately)...even though Milton's $$ gets freed up, the price on the open market for a #3 starter is probably still going to be too outrageous for the Reds to compete...

Personally, I hope we seal him "cheap" during the season because I think he has legitimate talent and I'm not one of those "ooooh Livingston, Dumatrait, Ramirez, etc, etc" guys...too much expectation of guys who may just be AAAA allstars...but I await disappointment due to the economic opportunity Lohse will see...

[cincrazy]

I think signing Lohse would be a mistake. We also signed Jimmy Haynes and Paul Wilson after career years, and look at how that turned out. Lohse obviously has more talent than those two by far, but the chances of that guy being worth what he'll be seeking on the open market are slim to none. In today's market, I let a guy like Lohse leave without thinking twice.

[The Snow Chief]

RedEye:

I agree that it needs to be blown up - to an extent. I would, however, keep Harang and Arroyo because I think they can be part of contending Reds teams in 2009-2011 if this restructuring is done right. Now, if someone wants to get silly with what they are offering, then Harang and Arroyo may be on the table. It would have to be quite a steep price however.

Unless things are turned around in a hurry, by the end of June, I would deal Lohse, Gonzalez, and Dunn. I think we can get a good young right handed ourfielder, a good young catcher, and a good young relief pitcher for them.

You also may want to think about moving Freel for a decent prospect.

Get rid of Milton, Weathers, and Stanton - even if you have to eat some salary.

By 2009, this could be the lineup:

SP:
Harang
Arroyo
Bailey
(any two of Belise, Livingston, Dumatrait, Thompson, Cueto)

RP:
trade return from Lohse, Gozo, or Dunn
MacBeth
Coutlangus
Bray
Salmon
Coffey
Medlock
Majewski (if his arm gets back to 100%)

position players:
catcher - return from Lohse, Gonzo, or Dunn
1B - Votto
2B - Phillips or Keppinger
SS - Phillips or Keppinger
3B - EE
RF - Jay Bruce
CF - Josh Hamilton
LF - return from Lohse, Gonzo, or Dunn

[PuffyPig]

Will Weathers or Stanton close?




Stanton has closed zero games this year. Weathers has closed every one of the late save opportunities.

Now that was an easy question.

[PuffyPig]

We are 6th in scoring in the NL.

We are 6th in starting pitching ERA.

We are 15th in relief pitching ERA.

Why blow up the entire team when the hitting and the starting pitchers are achieving contender standards?

The bullpen is all that has prevented us from contending this year.

We've scored more runs than we have given up.

That's not an entire team that you scrap, but a team that you try and fix the problem.

[RFS62]

We are 6th in scoring in the NL.

We are 6th in starting pitching ERA.

We are 15th in relief pitching ERA.

Why blow up the entire team when the hitting and the starting pitchers are achieving contender standards?

The bullpen is all that has prevented us from contending this year.

We've scored more runs than we have given up.

That's not an entire team that you scrap, but a team that you try and fix the problem.



Exactly.

Interesting how we bow to the mighty Pythagorean when it suits our needs to bash the team. But we sure are able to ignore it when it doesn't provide ammo to trash management.

[registerthis]

IToo many want to get rid of Lohse,although he has the second best era on the team and hasnt done anything to be traded.

I want to see him traded because his value right now is as high as it's ever going to be, and his career numbers dictate that sooner or later he's going to start giving up more long balls and putting more guys on base, a disasterous combination.

Lohse most certainly *has* done something to warrant being traded--he has performed well. Ship him out of town at the right price, and let some other team have the misfortune of dealing with the 2001-2006 version of Kyle Lohse.

[Puffy]

What this team needs is a right handed bat for the middle of the lineup and to fix the bullpen. Interestingly enough, the exact same things they needed 8 months ago.

The answer, to me, is simple (at least offensively). Move Dunn to first, get a right handed bat for left field. Alou would have been a good stopgap for a year. Think that type of player. Heck, if Wayne actually fixed the bullpen over the winter a guy like Reggie Sanders would be a great fit for a year.

Either way, in season, you are not going to fix the huge hole in right handed power AND the bullpen all at once. Thats for the offseason.

[membengal]

The problem, puffypig, is that I don't fully trust the starting pitching. The suspicious part of me thinks if the bullpen comes around a bit, that will be the moment the starting pitching goes through a funk. On such vagaries 90 loss seasons are built...

[GSURedsfan]

I think the problem with the entire team is that everyone save the starting pitching (and probably Griffey) has absolutely no idea what their role will be day to day. Will Dunn bat 3rd or 6th? Will Coffey pitch in the 8th of a close game or the 4th of a blowout? Will Hamilton or EE start today? Will Weathers or Stanton close?

I'd like to see what this team could do under a Sweet Lou or Trader Jack before blowing it up. I'm convinced that Narron is the cause of the inconsistancy...

In all honesty, couldn't have said it better myself.

Brent

[durl]

We are 6th in scoring in the NL.

We are 6th in starting pitching ERA.

We are 15th in relief pitching ERA.

Why blow up the entire team when the hitting and the starting pitchers are achieving contender standards?

The bullpen is all that has prevented us from contending this year.

We've scored more runs than we have given up.

That's not an entire team that you scrap, but a team that you try and fix the problem.

+1

This team is scoring runs. Don't dismantle a team that is scoring so many runs. And some here want to trade/dump Griffey?? He's one of the most productive players this team has.

You're exactly right: it's the BULLPEN. After their strong start, they have sent this team to the bottom of the division.

Does anyone have numbers on how many games have been lost because the bullpen couldn't hold the lead? That would be interesting to see.

[durl]

I think the problem with the entire team is that everyone save the starting pitching (and probably Griffey) has absolutely no idea what their role will be day to day. Will Dunn bat 3rd or 6th? Will Coffey pitch in the 8th of a close game or the 4th of a blowout? Will Hamilton or EE start today? Will Weathers or Stanton close?

Is role consistency really the problem here? Pitching is the problem. And for any pitcher who is not a starter or the team's designated closer, they HAVE to know that they may be called in at any time during a game. Whether they're called in for the 3rd inning or the 8th inning, their job is to get people OUT. Your approach changes if you have a huge lead or if you're down by 1, but the job is still to get people OUT, not to worry about what inning it is.

I agree with you that hitting in a consistent spot in the lineup can help. But with a few hitters showing inconsistency at the plate, I can understand moving things around a bit.

[GSURedsfan]

+1


Does anyone have numbers on how many games have been lost because the bullpen couldn't hold the lead? That would be interesting to see.


I went back through some box scores, and counted atleast 6, closer to 9 or 10.

Brent

[Benihana]

I agree more with reds44's approach. While I am all for change, just trading players for the sake of trading makes no sense.

I KEEP

Harang
Arroyo
Hamilton
Phillips
Encarnacion
Belisle
Bray

Harang and Arroyo are the top of the rotation guys the Reds have been desperately trying to find for the better part of the decade. We trade franchise guys like Aaron Boone and Sean Casey HOPING that the return will someday resemble these guys. They are now signed to reasonable contracts for the next three years. Why anyone would want to dump them is beyond me. Hamilton, Phillips, and Encarnacion are the young, cheap, productive building blocks of the future. They bring good attitudes (except for the occaisonal EdE hiccup,) and they too are signed cheaply for years to come (at least until they hit arb). Bray and Belisle are the pitching equivalent of these guys.

I SEE WHAT I CAN GET FOR

Dunn
Griffey
Freel
A.Gonzalez
Conine
Saarloos
Coffey
Majewski

These are guys that I wouldn't be opposed to trading for the right return, but if the right return is not there, I wouldn't be opposed to keeping, either. Dunn is obviously the most interesting name on this list, and I'm more inclined at this point to keep him. However, I would float him out there, and see if I couldn't get a high-OBP minded GM to give up a couple of strong positional prospects. If Bartolo Colon could net Sizemore, Phillips, and Cliff Lee, Dunn should be able to net at least half of that. If not, I keep him, plain and simple. I also wouldn't mind hanging onto Griffey at this point, as he only has a year plus left. However, if he continues to rake the way he has been, we could probably get a decent return from a hitting-starved playoff contender. Freel is signed pretty cheaply for the next couple years, and I do like the fire he brings to the team, so it wouldn't hurt to hang onto him, especially if Dunn or Griffey is moved. However, if you somehow get a better value return for him than Dunn or Griffey, I wouldn't hesitate to pull the trigger. While I really like what AGonz has brought to the table so far this year, I know I'm not in the minority in thinking that he will soon regress to the mean. Additionally, I am still of the belief that Brandon Phillips could be the SS of the future on this team, especially with guys like Valiaka and co. coming up who will all be moved to 2B or 3B. If you can get a nice return on AGonz, he A-Gone. Otherwise, I wouldn't be upset having his glove around for the next couple years. I highly doubt Conine would fetch much of anything in a trade, but I would see if anyone would bite. However I'd rather trade Hatt, given both his higher value and the fact that Votto is a lefty. If no one bites on Conine (and I doubt that they would), he could stick around to man first base for the rest of the year following Hatte's departure. Coffey may bounce back, and his value is low right now, but he may benefit from a change of scenery. If someone is willing to pay up and take a chance on Jorge Julio, Coffey may be no different. Ditto for Saarloos and Majewski, once he is healthy.

I TRADE THIS YEAR FOR THE BEST RETURN

Hatteberg
Lohse
Milton

Hatteberg and Lohse should definitely be moved by the trading deadline. Hatte is a solid veteran hitter that some team could surely use, similar to Joe Randa from 2005. With the lefty hitting Votto coming up next year (hopefully), there's no use for him here. Thanks for the contribution Scotty! Lohse is a FA after the year that will surely be overpaid by some team like Texas or Seattle, so jettison him now while his value should be pretty good. Maybe the Yankees want him- although I'd be wary of their overhyped prospects. I think enough has been said on the Milton front, so I'll save my breath.

I ATTEMPT TO TRADE, BUT WILL CUT IF I CAN'T

Stanton
Coutlangous

These guys are of no use in my opinion, so I'd DFA them and see if they can fetch something in a trade. If not, bye bye anyways. Let the younger bullpen guys get a chance to break their arms in this year, like McBeth, Bray, etc.

That would be my plan, at least, if I'm Wayne.

[IslandRed]

Well, trusting minor leaguers to be viable major leaguers is pretty much the worst kind of crap shoot. Witness Brandon Larson and even Chris Denorfia. And you might add Ryan Wagner to this list also. I don't know...

The Reds -- or any other team that's not in the upper half of revenue/payroll -- have to have a productive farm system or we're not going to sustain any sort of success. We can't afford a good team at market prices. We need kids turning into cheap, productive major leaguers, and we need them for trading chips. If Krivsky doesn't make that happen over time, we're toast no matter what.

But you have a good point in that we can't count on any specific player turning out. We just need the productivity from the whole.

[Ltlabner]

I'd say given the abuse and neglect shown to the scouting and player development departments for years and years is the number one reason why blowing it up is a pipe dream.

There's been some changes to the scouting/player development departments, but let's face it, it takes an orginization a while to change, especially when a culture is ingrained. It's an area that is so large and the influences so myrid that change is a process, not a simple "fire this guy".

If you blow up the team, and then try to count on the same broken system to rebuild it into something good you are serriously misguided.

[BigRedVA]

Maybe we'll try to field a playoff caliber team by the time we move into our next new stadium :bang:

[BuckeyeRedleg]

The problem is that if the bullpen ever becomes respectable you know damn well the offense or starting pitching will tank.

It's called Cincinnati Reds baseball.

Blow it up.

[smith288]

Blow up that area past the outfield fence.

[RedsFanWC]

+1

This team is scoring runs. Don't dismantle a team that is scoring so many runs. And some here want to trade/dump Griffey?? He's one of the most productive players this team has.

You're exactly right: it's the BULLPEN. After their strong start, they have sent this team to the bottom of the division.

Does anyone have numbers on how many games have been lost because the bullpen couldn't hold the lead? That would be interesting to see.

The Reds bullpen has been credited with 8 losses. 3 games they came in with the score tied, 3 games they came in with the lead and 2 games they came in with the reds trailing, the reds came back to tie or take the lead and the bullpen gave it up.

There have been 4 games in which the starter got the loss but if the bullpen had not given up any runs the reds scored enough to come back and win or tie the game.

The Reds bullpen has only been credited with 4 wins: The game against the Cubs in the finale of the opening series, where the reds came back from being down 2-1 when Lohse was pulled in the seventh, to win 5-2. The game at the Cubs in which Harang only went 4 innings, the Reds took a 1 run lead in the top of the fifth, bullpen held the rest of the way. The third game was against Milwaukee when Belisle was pulled in the sixth, trailing 5-4 and the reds came back to win 11-5. The last game was the phillies game on April 20 in which the reds tied it in the ninth and won it in the 10th, after Lohse went 7 and gave up 1 run.

This season the Reds have lost all 3 games in which the bullpen took over and the score was tied. They have lost 5 games in which the bullpen had the lead at some point. They have lost 4 games in which if the bullpen had not given up a run the reds would tied or won the game. The Reds have not come back from a deficit of more than 1 run after the starter has been pulled to win the game.