Livingston to start Sunday

[storrs19]

According to 700 WLW Bobby Livingston gets the start Sunday in Los Angeles.

[jesusfan]

Boo

[rotnoid]

Sounds like you may be on to something. Trent's blog says Narron is saying it's either Livingston or Dumatrait.

[fewfirstchoice]

The reds brass has something against giving young guys a shot at the league.I mean Homer is as ready as hes ever going to be and sending EE down was a horrible mistake.Let your young players come up and play so they can work out their problems here.

[CTA513]

Who will be sent down or cut to make room for him?

[SirFelixCat]

The reds brass has something against giving young guys a shot at the league.I mean Homer is as ready as hes ever going to be and sending EE down was a horrible mistake.Let your young players come up and play so they can work out their problems here.

Could not disagree more on the topic of Homer. The guy still needs to work on his control, and his K numbers have dropped significantly. Why start his clock early when he obviously needs more time to develop?

[Dunner44]

And Livingston isn't exactly OLD...

[reds44]

Dumatrait is pitching for the Bats right now, so that leaves Livingston and Homer.

[reds44]

Who will be sent down or cut to make room for him?
We can only hope Stanton.

[RedsFanWC]

Its also Livingston's turn, so he will be on regular rest, anyone else would have required a pitcher on long or short rest

I think this is a great call, keeps a lefthander in the rotation and a guy who has put up good numbers at AAA and looked good in spring training.

33 Ks to 4 BB is pretty impressive

[RedsFanWC]

Who will be sent down or cut to make room for him?

I think it will be Salmon sent back down or Santos released. Narron will want to keep two lefties, so Coutlangus and Stanton arent going anywhere. Neither is Weathers, Saarloos or Burton. And he came out and publicly backed Coffey after he blew the game the other night, so I doubt hes going down.

Personally between Santos and Salmon I hope we keep Salmon up here.

[TC81190]

I'm still completely boggled by people who are calling for Santos to be released. He's been are best out of the pen, sans Saarloos.

And I'm perfectly alright with leaving Homer down for now, he needs to work a tad on his control, and figure out how to K guys again, I DEFINITELY didn't see that one coming.

[indy_dave00]

People can knock Homer Bailey's supposive lack of control and stikeouts but he's still been pretty unhitable 34.1 innings of work only 20 hits add his 15 walks you have a 1.02 whip. He also has a 3-1 record and a 1.83 era in 6 starts.

Bobby Livingston is 0-3 with a 3.22 era. Yes he has fine control 33 strikeouts and 4 walks in 44.2 innings and 7 starts. But he has been very hitable in 44.2 innings he has allowed 51 basehits and dispite his fine control has a whip of 1.23 which is higher than Homer.

Sorry Homer Bailey may not be striking out as many as we expected but he's still been very unhitable. Knock Homer if you want but seems to me the just turned 21 year old is not exactly struggling to retire AAA hitters.

Update Phil Dumatrait moved to 5-1 with a 1.99 era with tonights 2-1 win Marcus McBeth got his second save with a perfect 9th recording a strikeout he has 1.50 era since joining the Bat 1 run in 6 innings.

[RedsMan3203]

Keep on waiting......

[captainmorgan07]

very good move give homer few more starts in AAA

[StillFunkyB]

People can knock Homer Bailey's supposive lack of control and stikeouts but he's still been pretty unhitable 34.1 innings of work only 20 hits add his 15 walks you have a 1.02 whip. He also has a 3-1 record and a 1.83 era in 6 starts.

Bobby Livingston is 0-3 with a 3.22 era. Yes he has fine control 33 strikeouts and 4 walks in 44.2 innings and 7 starts. But he has been very hitable in 44.2 innings he has allowed 51 basehits and dispite his fine control has a whip of 1.23 which is higher than Homer.

Sorry Homer Bailey may not be striking out as many as we expected but he's still been very unhitable. Knock Homer if you want but seems to me the just turned 21 year old is not exactly struggling to retire AAA hitters.

Update Phil Dumatrait moved to 5-1 with a 1.99 era with tonights 2-1 win Marcus McBeth got his second save with a perfect 9th recording a strikeout he has 1.50 era since joining the Bat 1 run in 6 innings.

Major League hitters are also a whole lot better than AAA hitters.

In AAA you can get by fairly well with a 98 mile an hour heater, and below average secondary pitches. While I have not seen Homer pitch this year I think his walk total proves that his secondary pitches need work. I would think that because Homer Bailey would not be the number one pitching prospect in baseball if he couldn't locate that fastball.

I have a feeling that if Bailey were to be called up at this point he may get lit up after a trip or two through the lineup, once the hitters started sitting on the fastball. I could be wrong, but that's my .02

[Stingray]

Am I correct that Homer's Arb clock doesn't start until next year if he's not up until after June 1st?

[NorrisHopper30]

Am I correct that Homer's Arb clock doesn't start until next year if he's not up until after June 1st?

That's true, but Krivsky and Castellini said that wouldn't affect anything.

Maybe they are saving Homer for a home game? I'd personally rather see Dumatrait than Livingston, but we'll see how it goes.

[jesusfan]

Please let me see Bailey for the Pirates series!

[jesusfan]

Hey, ya think they might throw Bailey out there to face the Nationals and Bowden....

[Blue]

I feel like Livingston is going to get his brains beat in. However, he is replacing Eric Milton, and I bet he can be at least that productive.

[jmac]

The reds brass has something against giving young guys a shot at the league.I mean Homer is as ready as hes ever going to be and sending EE down was a horrible mistake.Let your young players come up and play so they can work out their problems here.

As I said in another thread...Mr C has not stated he wants to win later but rather now.If I was the manager and knew my job was on the line....I wouldnt want to play guys and let them grow on the job. I would want to put the guys out there who gives me the best chance to win.(granted whether JN does that is debatable)

[osuceltic]

I've heard the Reds are a little disappointed with Homer's progress to this poing. He's not controlling the fastball the way they believe he needs to, and still hasn't developed his other pitches. They think he's further away than they hoped he'd be.

Again, this is just what I've heard -- from a fairly reliable source.

[RedsFanWC]

I'm still completely boggled by people who are calling for Santos to be released. He's been are best out of the pen, sans Saarloos.

And I'm perfectly alright with leaving Homer down for now, he needs to work a tad on his control, and figure out how to K guys again, I DEFINITELY didn't see that one coming.

The issue with Santos is that he has a WHIP of 1.60, which is high, he has a low K rate, and does not have a track record of success at the major league level. While he has a decent ERA the rest of his stats suggest that it is only a matter of time until he starts giving up more runs.

[TeamSelig]

Okay i'm basing this off of one inning of watching Salmon ;)

He has HORRIBLE HORRIBLE command. What is his walk rate in the minors? He nearly walked every batter he faced, and some of his strikes were them swinging at balls or borderline strikes.

[Caveman Techie]

If waiting another 20 days before bringing Homer up (if he's ready) buys us another year of him before hitting arbitration, then I am just fine with waiting.

[bigredbunter]

Livingston = Michalak = filler
Even with Dumatrait, you want to make sure he is set up for as much success as possible. No need to rush either Dumatrait or Bailey since it appears that the '07 Reds are not a playoff team....On the other hand, I would be shopping Santos for anyone with a pulse.

[Will M]

The issue with Santos is that he has a WHIP of 1.60, which is high, he has a low K rate, and does not have a track record of success at the major league level. While he has a decent ERA the rest of his stats suggest that it is only a matter of time until he starts giving up more runs.

agree. this is what i have been saying for about a week. Santos's time as a Red is about up.

[Will M]

Livingston = Michalak = filler
Even with Dumatrait, you want to make sure he is set up for as much success as possible. No need to rush either Dumatrait or Bailey since it appears that the '07 Reds are not a playoff team....On the other hand, I would be shopping Santos for anyone with a pulse.

no. Michalak was what - 35 years old.
Livingston is a youngster.

[Will M]

Livinston and/or Dumatrait replace Milton.

Come ~July 1rst the Reds have a decision. If we are out of it and Lohse shows no desire to sign a long term contract ( or we decide not to ) then Lohse is traded for a prospect or two and Homer is called up.

[GSURedsfan]

Livingston = Michalak = filler
Even with Dumatrait, you want to make sure he is set up for as much success as possible. No need to rush either Dumatrait or Bailey since it appears that the '07 Reds are not a playoff team....On the other hand, I would be shopping Santos for anyone with a pulse.


How do you compare Livingston to Michalak? Michalak was the Morgan Shepherd of the Reds....Livingston is atleast a Clint Bowyer type. Won't win many races, but is usually in the the top 10 at the end.

Brent

[Danny Serafini]

Michalak was the Morgan Shepherd of the Reds

Now that's funny! :laugh: Never expected to see that comparison.

[Danny Serafini]

Am I correct that Homer's Arb clock doesn't start until next year if he's not up until after June 1st?

No. Whatever days he spends on the Major League roster go into his arb time, regardless of when he's called up. Also, if he gets sent back down the clock stops. It's late enough in the season now that they likely could call him up for the rest of the year and not have him become arb eligible a year early, though I don't expect it to happen yet.

[BRM]

Fay doesn't like this decision.



I'd bring up Homer; what would you do?

Homer Bailey is always a fairly hot topic of conversation and perhaps my favorite Reds subject. Unless there's a change of plans, he isn't going to start Sunday's game. Bobby Livingston is.

I think the Reds are missing a big opportunity here. Why bring up Bailey?

Jerry Narron said the club wants the guy who's pitching the best. That might be Phil Dumatrait, but it certainly isn't Bobby Livingston. (Dumatrait started Thursday so it isn't going to be him) Livingston's 0-3 with 3.22 ERA. Bailey's 3-1 with a 1.83 ERA. But the big difference in the hits per inning. Bailey's given up 20 in 34 1/3 innings. Livingston's given up 51 hits in 44 2/3 innings. The only argument for Livingston, statistically, is walks. He's walked only four. Bailey's walked 15.

I simply don't buy the age thing. Ken Griffey Jr. had played in the 282 big league games before he turned 21.

To me this the perfect scenario. The start's on the road, thus less pressure, if Bailey struggles you simply send him back to Louisville when Eric Milton comes off the DL.

But the biggest reason to do it Bailey could give a boost to a team that definitely needs one -- not to mention give fans a reason to watch.

So what would you do? Livingston or Bailey? Or go with bullpen day and start Kirk Saarloos or Victor Santos?

[OesterPoster]

Now that's funny! :laugh: Never expected to see that comparison.

Very good, but I'd have gone with Dick Trickle or Dave Marcis instead. :D

[Degenerate39]

Well he can't be any worse than Milton

[ITHIKABAND]

The reds brass has something against giving young guys a shot at the league.I mean Homer is as ready as hes ever going to be and sending EE down was a horrible mistake.Let your young players come up and play so they can work out their problems here.

Homer isnt ready he's walking WAY too many guys and his strike out ratio is down. Until he gets his control precise and has his curveball working we will not see him!

My person opinion is Dumatrait even though he's walk rate is super high as well. I just think he has better stuff than Livingston. I'm sure we'll see Livingston though.. Just my 2 cents..

[Patrick Bateman]

Well he can't be any worse than Milton

Yes he can.

[bucksfan2]

I think Mr. C is lying through his teeth if he says that the June 1st arb date doesn't mean anything. Its not the fact that Homer isn't the best pitcher in the minors, because he is, its when his arb clock starts ticking. Look at some of the contracts that have been given to both average pitchers, above average pitchers, and good pitchers, they are outrageous. If Homer is brough up early this year then he is 1 year closer to making 10-15+ million. If he is called up sunday then he makes what 4 starts before june 1st? So lets assume he would make 2 home starts. If the reds stadium capacity is 42,000 and the reds average 20,000 and lets assume Homer starts and he sells out both home games he pitches before June 1st. He will bring in roughly 44,000 more people that would originally have come. Lets assume that bringing him up now cost the reds $10 million due to the fact that the reds would basically one cheap year of Homer. The reds basically would have to sell each additional ticket for $230 to make up for the cost difference. It just isn't going to happen and as a fan of a team with limited resources I wouldn't want them to make a snap decision that would cost the team significantly in the long run.

[BRM]

Fay is reporting that it's official now.



Reds just announced that Bobby Livingston will get the start Sunday.

[Homer Bailey]

I think Mr. C is lying through his teeth if he says that the June 1st arb date doesn't mean anything. Its not the fact that Homer isn't the best pitcher in the minors, because he is, its when his arb clock starts ticking. Look at some of the contracts that have been given to both average pitchers, above average pitchers, and good pitchers, they are outrageous. If Homer is brough up early this year then he is 1 year closer to making 10-15+ million. If he is called up sunday then he makes what 4 starts before june 1st? So lets assume he would make 2 home starts. If the reds stadium capacity is 42,000 and the reds average 20,000 and lets assume Homer starts and he sells out both home games he pitches before June 1st. He will bring in roughly 44,000 more people that would originally have come. Lets assume that bringing him up now cost the reds $10 million due to the fact that the reds would basically one cheap year of Homer. The reds basically would have to sell each additional ticket for $230 to make up for the cost difference. It just isn't going to happen and as a fan of a team with limited resources I wouldn't want them to make a snap decision that would cost the team significantly in the long run.

PERFECT POST.... I am in support of this rationale as well.

[JLB5]

I think Mr. C is lying through his teeth if he says that the June 1st arb date doesn't mean anything. Its not the fact that Homer isn't the best pitcher in the minors, because he is, its when his arb clock starts ticking. Look at some of the contracts that have been given to both average pitchers, above average pitchers, and good pitchers, they are outrageous. If Homer is brough up early this year then he is 1 year closer to making 10-15+ million. If he is called up sunday then he makes what 4 starts before june 1st? So lets assume he would make 2 home starts. If the reds stadium capacity is 42,000 and the reds average 20,000 and lets assume Homer starts and he sells out both home games he pitches before June 1st. He will bring in roughly 44,000 more people that would originally have come. Lets assume that bringing him up now cost the reds $10 million due to the fact that the reds would basically one cheap year of Homer. The reds basically would have to sell each additional ticket for $230 to make up for the cost difference. It just isn't going to happen and as a fan of a team with limited resources I wouldn't want them to make a snap decision that would cost the team significantly in the long run.


June 1 is not an absolute date, this site lays it out fairly well:

http://www.letsgotribe.com/story/2006/6/23/15557/1077

The relevant part is:


The final catch is the Super Two rule, which is applied to players with more than two years of service time but less than three. Each year, the top 17 percent of these players (in service time) also become arbitration-eligible -- adding millions to their salary, both that year and probably in the future. Because past salary is one of the factors in arbitrated salaries, reaching arbitration a year earlier will also boost a player's salary in all future years.

If Super Two status is to be avoided, generally it's best not to let a prospect accumulate as many as 130 days of service time before the end of the season.

There will be right around 130 days left after Sunday, so it's probably not the main issue.

[WMR]

I think Homer should stay in AAA for the rest of this season.

[DTCromer]

Just because Homer has the best stuff doesn't mean he's the best pitcher. Many people in the Reds organization has said it numerous times: Homer just isn't as polished as they would like him to be. I don't understand why a lot of fans want to rush our prized possession.

A lot of people were calling for Homer to be up in the majors last year so I'm not sure I trust the fact that a lot of people are calling for him this year.

[Kingspoint]

It wasn't about if Livingston would get some starts, but when. That decision can only be made by the coaches that are working with him in AAA. If they think he's ready to at least give it a shot, then he must be ready. Because stat-wise, Dumatrait is the pitcher that's ready. Dumatrait will also get a start in the Majors, and he should also get a start before Bailey does. Bailey, despite the attraction from fans and the media, should not see a Major League game in the next 30 days. He has a lot to learn still according to the quotes from management during Spring Training.

[Hooligan]

Could not disagree more on the topic of Homer. The guy still needs to work on his control, and his K numbers have dropped significantly. Why start his clock early when he obviously needs more time to develop?

Agree Cat, Homer, although good, still has a ways to go before I want him pitching for the Reds. His time will come, most likely this year, but not now.

[Matt700wlw]

Who will be sent down or cut to make room for him?

I'm guessing Coffey will be sent down.

Stanton's got that "veteran presence" :p:

[Hey Meat]

Good move anyways, I thought he should have been called up sooner and Milty on permaDL or 60 or DFA. I still would like to see Homer, give him a little more time though.

[AmarilloRed]

You had to know they would not call Bailey up yet. I dont know much about Livingston, but I hope he will go longer than 5 innings and keep us in games.

[Kingspoint]

How bad Livingston wants to stay in the Majors this time is up to him.

I know he has the ability physically. I hope he's learned something over the winter about what it takes to stick in the Majors.

[RedsManRick]

Re: Bailey as the best pitcher in the minors... Yovani Gallardo says hi.