What to do with Kyle Loshe?

[AmarilloRed]

This subject has somewhat been asked somewhat before in the thread about signing him to an extension. He is a good starting pitcher who will give you 6 inning and 3 ER a game.He is a pitcher who can be inconsistant, but he is a good back-of-the rotation starter who will help any team. The trade deadline is approaching,and if we cannot sign him to an extension, we might have to trade him. I would like to sign him to an extension if it is possible. We will have a lot of salary coming off the payroll at the end of the year,and some of that could be used for Loshe. I think we should try to keep him in our rotation. However, this may not be possible,and in this case we should look at seeing what prospects we could get for him. Would Redzone work to resign him, and/or what prospects would you like to see us get if an extension cannot be reached?

[jimbo]

In my opinion, I think the Reds should trade Lohse by the All-Star break and get whatever they can get for him. I agree in that he has been a pretty decent pitcher so far this season, but his career numbers still scream inconsistancy. With the money that the market will be demanding for him, I just can't see any positives out of signing Loshe to a long-term contract. Just too risky and costly considering the numbers I see on the back of his baseball card.

[LvJ]

I like Lohse. He isn't old, and he can be a solid pitcher at times. Yes, an inconsistent one, but no Cincinnati Red in ... say ... 10 years has been consistently good, right? Right. So, let's not act like we're better than Loshe, cause quiet frankly, we're not. I would like to see him extended, and continue to pitch in a Reds uniform. Let's be honest, he is a typical "back of a rotation" guy, but for the Reds, that equals a top of the rotation guy, amirite? Yeah, I am. At least this year, and years past - and probably a few more years after this season.

If we're offered something outrageous that we should not refuse, then I'm all for striking a deal, but if it's just going to turn into another Majewski, or some "average" minor leaguer, than no - keep him.

[Chi-Town Red]

for whatever reason he looks good some nights and bad others.
His fastball is impressive,but something is missing mentally.
He's had time to show what he has, but i would trade him as
i dont see him as part of the future.

[NorrisHopper30]

I'd like to keep Kyle Lohse, he is still young and if we can get him cheap enough he'd be a nice 4 or 5 starter for a few years to come.

[SMcGavin]

I would deal Lohse for whatever I could get for him. He's a decent pitcher, but his asking price is going to be much more than the $4M he's getting this year. The Reds can't afford to give that to a guy who is just average - especially when the real problem with the pitching staff is the bullpen, not the rotation.

[Mitri]

Hope he goes lights out his next 4 or 5 starts and sell immediately. It will be the easiest decision the FO will make this year.

[Chi-Town Red]

wonder if WK will actually deal him. since he brought him
over from Minnesota. If we can get a descent arm for him
i say do it.He is a FA after this year

[that_guy]

His career has been defined by inconsistency and he's represented by Scott Boras. He'll be demanding market value and then some. Signing him to an extension will likely mean overpaying him. The Reds will be just getting out from under the Milton contract, lets not lock into another bad contract. They fell for career years from Jimmy Haynes and Paul Wilson, resulting in bad contracts, do not let that history repeat itself. Lohse has good stuff, better than either of them, but time after time he's proved himself inconsistent. Only a few weeks ago people were talking about DFA'ing him, now contract extensions are being discussed? Buy Low, Sell High= trade him soon, before his dark side rears it's ugly head again...

[ED44]

I agree, I think you have to trade him before the deadline and get what you can. He needs to pitch the way he has the past few outings and hope a team overpays. He will command much more money next season and I am not sure he is worth that.

If he would sign an extension for around the same price I wouldn't mind keeping him. I have often wondered about him as a closer. He has lights out stuff when he is on, but you just never know what you're going to get out of him.

[AmarilloRed]

He has been quoted as saying he is interested in an extension with the Reds. My heart says sign him to an extension,and my head tell me it will probably be too expensive for the Reds. If we could get a similar deal like the ones we did with Harang and Arroyo, I would work on it. It all depends on how he is pitching
at the trading deadline. With Scott Boras as his agent, if he is doing well he will be trying to cash in. Krisky will sign him to an extension if he has a good year, but he will trade him if his price gets too high.

[eastkyred]

Unfortunately, the Reds don't have as much extra money as you think next year. The money saved from Milton's contract expiring is already spent in raises for current players. I realize the team salary will probably increase a certain percentage to take care of some of this money, but between Arroyo, Harang, Ross, Stanton, Weathers, and Gonzo their salaries increase a combined 9 mil. That wipes out Milton's money. If Dunn is moved, we will have some extra money(and I think this needs to happen). But, I don't think the money should be spent on Lohse. I suspect that K will try first to pick up a young starter in the Dunn trade, if it happens. This would give us Harang, Arroyo, Belisle, Homer, and new guy. The reds are also going to have to pay Phillips, EE, Belisle in the next few years and locking up Lohse long term could hurt this. Without a significant increase in overall salary, the Reds can't afford to pay 7-8 mil (which is what Boras will want) for a #4 or #5 starter.

[HokieRed]

What to do with Lohse may very well depend on the alternatives, which is why I hope we'll get some looks at Livingston, Dumatrait, maybe even Gosling, Elizardo. Will we want to pay say 8 or 9 million for the difference between Lohse and, say, Elizardo next year? Probably not.

[Dracodave]

What to do with Lohse may very well depend on the alternatives, which is why I hope we'll get some looks at Livingston, Dumatrait, maybe even Gosling, Elizardo. Will we want to pay say 8 or 9 million for the difference between Lohse and, say, Elizardo next year? Probably not.


Right now, I'd take my chances with Ez over Loshe. Ez might top out at a number four/five in the roation..but he showed some really good starts last year before his shoulder injury. I'd really like to see him healthy and ready to pitch in the majors again.

[AmarilloRed]

Like I said, it is my heart which wishes we could keep Loshe. We will probably end up trading him for a couple of prospects near the trading deadline.

[reds44]

Loshe is a really nice guy to have as a 4-5 starter in the back end of a rotation for a contender. He's also done much better then many Reds fan predicted when we traded for him.

However, the Reds are not a contender, Loshe is a free agent after this year, and he will probably get a decent amount of money on the market. The Reds will deal him.

[harangatang]

I would trade him at the deadline without hesitation. Lohse is too inconsistent for the money he will demand next year. Scott Boras will milk a team for every dollar possible which would not be a good thing for the "middle market" teams such as Cincinnati. The Reds would be much better off investing the money in one of the major deficienies such as the bullpen or the offense.

[HokieRed]

Sorry to say, I think the time Lohse was tradable is quickly passing, and I hope K has no intention of resigning him beyond this year.

[AmarilloRed]

His start tonight certainly will not help his trade value.

[JLB5]

Man, Brantley does not like him one bit. I was watching on TV last night so I missed his comments but heard them on the way to work this morning. After he left the game...
JB: "Bring on Phil Dumatrait." and "This guy gives up a run or two and just quits." Pretty harsh but he has a point about Lohse and his big innings. Marty also pointed out at the time that Lohse shook off Ross right before the HR pitch. That meatball was his selection. I'm not quite in Brantley's DFA him camp, but I can't think of any reason to pay him beyond this year. Get what you can for him before the trade deadline.

[RedsFanInMD]

Lohse doesn't seem to deal with adversity very well. I've noticed that things really start to fall apart (as they did last night), when the defense behind him has a bad play. He's got great stuff -- but he just may not be mentally tough enough to pitch well every 5th day.

[jimbo]

If Lohse can ring up 3 or 4 good starts before the All-Star break, I think the Reds could get a nice return for him. In my eyes, Lohse is right up there with Dunn as far as being at the top of the list to shop around.

[eastkyred]

I would shop everyone on the team except Harang, Belisle, Homer, Phillips, EE, Hamilton, and probably Arroyo. Dunn, Lohse, Weathers, Stanton, Hatte, and Conine would be the ones I would pursue unloading the hardest. I think if all of these guys were moved, the reds could really load up with young talent and be ready to make a solid run as some of the young talent we already have mature.

[fearofpopvol1]

I hope he does well over the next few weeks and we trade him for whatever we can get. He's been decent but I don't see investing in a new contract a good idea for the Reds.

[GOREDSGO32]

Lohse is the typical Suppan/Weaver type of 4/5 starter that contending teams LOVE and will give up some prospects for. I say trade him - we need to build from within at this point.

[HokieRed]

Don't understand why Belisle and Arroyo would not be on a list to be shopped.

[redsupport]

I would keep Castro, the man can rake

[Chi-Town Red]

Trade Him!...

[cacollinsmba]

I think Lohse is too inconsistent to put together a good string of wins to increase his value.

Worst case scenario, if you can't trade him, decline to offer him arbitration in the off season.

[nate]

I think Lohse is too inconsistent to put together a good string of wins to increase his value.

Worst case scenario, if you can't trade him, decline to offer him arbitration in the off season.

I think you lose the compensatory draft pick if you don't offer arbitration. Not sure, though.

If you can sign someone as good as Harang, let Lohse go. If you can't, you might as well re-sign Kyle because I think he'll be getting market price for a back of the rotation guy; pitching is expensive.

[Redsnake]

At least when he asks the front offices for a contract extension he won't be surprsed by there laughter. Or maybe Lohse would sign a 3 year - $3 million(not 3mil per) extension. :D

[eastkyred]

Don't understand why Belisle and Arroyo would not be on a list to be shopped.

Arroyo, maybe, but only for a something you can't turn down. I think the real Arroyo is closer to what we saw last year and the first 6 weeks of this season. Belisle? What would be the point of trading Belisle? This is his first season as a starter. He has done pretty well, and appears to have really good stuff. On top of that, we only pay him 400k and I think we will have him for that next year too. Why in the world would you trade Belisle?

[spartcock77]

If we think there is a strong possiblilty of signing him at the end of the year i would consider it, but we will probably trade him for next to nothing

[AmarilloRed]

Would the best option be to offer him arbitration at the end of the year like we did with Aurilia, hoping he'll turn it down and sign with another team. If that happened, I believe we would get draft picks for him.

[HokieRed]

There's a difference between setting out to trade a player and having him on the list to be shopped. Belisle's a relatively good option at the back of the rotation now but that's no reason not to shop him to see what he might bring from a team that's really badly in need of rotation help--and will perhaps give you more right now because of the timing than his value. Good teams are always looking to get better not just to find guys who are acceptable in their roles. If you put together a whole team of acceptable players, you'll have mediocrity at best. That's the reason I continue to like Dan O'Brien far better than Krivsky. His choices of Bailey and Bruce may yet turn out to be less significant than they look like they might be, but those two players have a chance to really make us better--not just incrementally but substantially.

[HokieRed]

Might be relevant to what to do about Kyle Lohse: Bobby Livingston went 9 tonight, 4 hits, 0 runs, 0 W's, 4 K's.

[Doro]

You wont get much in return for Kyle Lohse so you might as well keep him.

[AmarilloRed]

One of the contenders might be willing to trade for a pitcher like Lohse as the pennant race heats up. Livingston could soon take his place in the rotation. We can only keep him for this year. He becomes a free agent after this year.

[HokieRed]

Whatever trade value Kyle Lohse had is about gone. Frankly I think the only GM willing to give up a decent prospect in order to pay Kyle Lohse 4+ million is running our Cincinnati Reds.

[winker12]

I'd send him to a shrink or perhaps he needs to put women's longerie on! He seems to have one really bad inning where he loses concentration. He'll probabaly come back tonight and shut the Mariner"s out.

[HokieRed]

Krivsky, Lohse, Castro--the Minnesota connection.

[reds44]

Whatever trade value Kyle Lohse had is about gone. Frankly I think the only GM willing to give up a decent prospect in order to pay Kyle Lohse 4+ million is running our Cincinnati Reds.
You'll get a prospect in return for him. It may not be a highly thought of one, but there will be a GM out there who likes his stuff who is willing to give up something for him. Until then, all you can do is ride it out with him. First of all, there are no better options in the minors right now. I doubt Elizardo is ready to back after only 3 starts in AAA after being out for so long, and Dumatrait and Livingston will be punching bags at this level. There are no better options until EZ is ready. For now, all you can do is ride it out, hope he strings 2 or 3 good outings together, and deal him for whatever you can. He's a free agent at the end of the year, so you might as well deal him. After you deal him, hopefully Elizardo is good to go.

[Chi-Town Red]

after last night i don't think anyone will take him....geez what happened
to him?:confused: maybe the pen? all i know is that if he is not traded, he wont be
back in Cincy next year!!

[HokieRed]

Question: if we weren't paying Kyle Lohse $4million would he be getting starts? If the answer is no, then he's only getting starts so that Krivksy won't look like a complete idiot for deciding to trade Justin Germano for Rheal Cormier while also trading Zach Ward for Kyle Lohse. If that's the case, why on earth would we give any more innings to Kyle Lohse at the expense of the development of people in the organization who may contribute in the future? Reds44, if Dumatrait and Livingston are that bad, then why keep them, why not at least let them get another look and a shot from some other organization?

[Chi-Town Red]

yea WK looks pretty bad right now...although the guy has shown in the past he can be good....as others have said he's a head case

[TexasRed]

I know there is more to it than just "make him the closer"..... But, it seems like grooming him into a late innings guy might at least be a compelling thought to the Reds. It is well documented that he has good stuff. He is totally inconsistent as a starter. We REALLY need some good late inning guys in the pen..... So, why the heck not?!?!

[jimbo]

If he is inconsistant as a starter, then he will most likely be inconsistant as a closer. This season is a wash, I say just ride him until you can trade him or until the end of the season. A few good starts in July could still be enough to get something for him.

[HokieRed]

Lohse keeps fooling people with just enough good performance, and obviously good stuff, to make people think he'll put it all together and be a solid starter. But there's little evidence of anything like this happening. I think it's past time Krivsky admit he made another mistake, DFA Lohse, and bring Dumatrait or Livingston, who might benefit from the innings.

[jimbo]

DFAing Lohse shouldn't even be an option at this point. Teams do desperate things when they are in contention and near the trade deadline. All it's going to take is Lohse to have a few good starts between now and then and some sucker will take a chance on him and the Reds can get something in return.

DFAing a player everytime they go through bad stretches is not always the answer.

[TexasRed]

Inconsistent as a starter = inconsistent in relief??? Maybe, maybe not.... I have to think it's a very different role mentally. I am certainly not saying it's a sure bet that he could step into relief and be successful, but it aint happening now either.

[AmarilloRed]

Lohse is wildly inconsistant. At times, he looks like an ace pitcher and at others like a terrible pitcher. This is why Minnesota traded him to us. It is consistancy which makes a quality starting pitcher. A pitcher with good stuff will only go so far if he is unreliable. At this point, the best we can hope for is to get a couple of prospects from a contender desperate for starting pitching.

[ED44]

Lohse is wildly inconsistant. At times, he looks like an ace pitcher and at others like a terrible pitcher. This is why Minnesota traded him to us. It is consistancy which makes a quality starting pitcher. A pitcher with good stuff will only go so far if he is unreliable. At this point, the best we can hope for is to get a couple of prospects from a contender desperate for starting pitching.

I couldn't agree with you more. If he can pitch like an ace for a few straight starts, the return could be pretty high though. If the Mets will give up Kazmir for Victor Zambrano, then a couple decent starts from Kyle could net us a decent return.

[Cicero]

Maybe we shouls squeeze a few more games out of Arroyo to before DFA/trade him for a bag of balls. It would be no less reactionary than some of the fans here.Not too long ago there was a thread calling him the future ace of the staff.

[Blitz Dorsey]

For a while it was looking like we'd could get something decent for Lohse at the trading deadline. I thought some team needing a No. 5 starter for the pennant race might come after him. But he has pitched his way out of any trade value. No one is going to be willing to even give up a fringe good prospect for him now. I hope I'm wrong. All I was looking for was a young minor league reliever with a good arm but maybe poor mechanics and/or control. But now I don't think we could get anything of value for Lohse.

[AmarilloRed]

I was one of Lohse's biggest boosters, and I posted that he would have a breakout year. He started out the year like a house on fire, and I suggested signing him immediately to an extension. Wiser heads told me to wait, and that he would prove inconsistant. I am man enough to admit when i am wrong, and Lohse will have to make a terrific comeback if anyone will consider him for an extension. I really hate to have to consider trading him for prospects as I thought he was a quality pitcher,but that is the situation he finds himself in now. If you are a terrible pitcher, having Scott Boras as your agent will not help you. Right now, Kyle Lohse would have trouble finding a job in the offseason, and he has no one to blame for that situation except himself.

[AmarilloRed]

2 good starts after a lot of bad ones. This is the problem with Kyle Lohse. He reminds me of that little girl-"When he was good he was very good, but when he was bad he was horrid. Lohse is like Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde from game to game. I am sure him finding the strike zone will raise his trade value; there will be a contender out there who thinks they can turn him around. Krivsky will soon have to decide whether he wants to trade him for prospects while his value is high, or try and re-sign him. He has had an equal number of quality starts and terrible starts, so I don't envy him the decision.

[Screwball]

I was just having a look at Kyle Lohse's stats when I came across the "Most Similar Pitchers" section. Right now at age 27, KL is most like Ricky Bones (another pretty inconsistent pitcher). But pitchers 3-5 are Jeff Suppan, Chris Carpenter, and Jason Jennings, with #7 being Jason Marquis. And at ages 25 and 26, he was most like Chris Carpenter both times. Keep in mind Carpenter wasn't the ace he is now until he went to St. Louis and underwent the tutelage of Dave Duncan. I'd hate to see the Reds trade with St. Louis because of their painfully anemic farm system (Colby Rasmus and then what?), but I could definitely see the Cards picking him up in free agency with DD and the spacious Busch stadium (relative to GABP) turning him into a consistent stud pitcher.

[kaldaniels]

The guy is an enigma wrapped in a riddle. Seemingly the worst pitcher in the bigs at times....yet he is tied with Harang with 10 quality starts. (Meaning 5 wins is a bit low for Lohse, and 3 wins is ludicrous for Arroyo's 11 QS.)

Just watching the games, if you'd ask me, I'd say get rid of him.

But after looking at his numbers he is having a decent year. And after looking at the numbers, Belisle is not having a good year at all. I don't think he is a long term answer. Holding onto Lohse isn't a bad idea if the price is right.

[HokieRed]

A couple more starts like the last two and it may be time to start thinking what we'd pay him over a several year deal. Whether Belisle is going to be able to start over the long haul is certainly problematic right now. Do we open next year with Harang, Arroyo, Bailey, Belisle, and ? or with Harang, Arroyo, Lohse, Bailey, and ? (with Belisle there ready as a 5th if we can't fill that last spot better with somebody else?)

[that_guy]

kaldaniels- Just curious, what numbers are you looking at when you say that Lohse is having a decent year and Belisle is having a poor year? Too me their numbers are very comparable.

ERA- Lohse 4.47, Belisle 4.59. Belisle's BABIP is slightly higher than Lohse's so part of the ERA difference may be due to bad luck. Also, Belisle's opponents average slightly more runs per game than Lohse's.

WHIP- Lohse 1.33, Belisle 1.38
K/BB- Lohse 2.41, Belisle 3.05

Most of their numbers are comparable, I'd say Lohse has been slightly better than Belisle overall, but not enough to consider one having a decent season and the other not having a good season at all. Lohse's good games are better than Belisle's, but his bad games are usually worse. I'd rank both as League Average #4 types, both have been way too inconsistent to rank higher than that.

If I had to choose one or the other, I'd keep Belisle. He's cheaper, this is his first year as a starter so he may improve, and he's pitched very well in games that Javy hasn't caught (ERA with Ross by my calcs is 3.78). Lohse has better stuff, but he's had 6 seasons to prove that he can be consistent and he's only proven that he'll never be consistent. That combined with the fact that he'll always be overpaid (Boras as his agent), convinces me that he should be shipped off as soon as possible, prior to his next implosion hopefully.

[UC_Ken]

Your numbers are off for Belisle. His ERA is well over 5, nearly a run higher than Lohse.

Look at the contracts mediocre pitchers got last offseason. Let someone else waste their money on Lohse's inconsistency. Find a stopgap until Cueto is ready some time next season.

[AmarilloRed]

I suppose it all hinges on how he performs in his starts prior to the trade deadline, and his asking price. If he pitches well,and keeps his asking price to a reasonable level(unlikely with Scott Boras as his agent), Krivsky might sign him to a short-term deal. On the other hand, if he has another couple of bad games or asks too much after a couple of good ones, Krivsky will probably trade him for prospects.

[Degenerate39]

I trade him right now. I doubt he's going to re-sign with the Reds so might as well get rid of him now since he's had two good starts. I'm sure the Reds could get a good prospect for him.

[HokieRed]

From 2002-2005, Kyle Lohse averaged about 190 innings a year. Matt Belisle has never even been anywhere close to that. Lohse is an established starting pitcher--whatever we think of his effectiveness--Belisle is not. Maybe Belisle will be. I doubt it. He's improved his BB's this year and that's a good sign. But his WHIP's are really very consistent over the past several years--whether he's been a L'ville. or Cinti. I wouldn't mind having him as the fifth starter next year. I think going into next year with Bailey as the 3rd and Belisle as the 4th is very shaky.

[Degenerate39]

From 2002-2005, Kyle Lohse averaged about 190 innings a year. Matt Belisle has never even been anywhere close to that.

Matt Belisle use to be a relief pitcher I'm pretty sure this is his first year as a starter but I might be wrong.

[that_guy]

My numbers were wrong on my post a few posts back. Belisle's ERA is higher than what I had posted, after taking the correct ERA into account his numbers aren't as comparable as I had thought. For some reason I can't edit my original thread, so I'm just posting it here.

[HokieRed]

There are simply not that many arms out there that can throw 190 innings per year for 4 years running. That's what makes a starter. Whether Belisle can do that is completely unknown.

[AmarilloRed]

In a previous thread, Kyle Lohse said he was open to an extension with the Reds. I believe Wayne Krivsky should ask him what sort of terms he would sign under. We should see if we can sign him to an extension before we trade him. If we can sign him, we should keep him instead of trading him for prospects.

[topsyt]

Amen

[kaldaniels]

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/7028354?CMP=OTC-K9B140813162&ATT=49

"The rest of the 2007-08 free-agent class is so weak, one scout wonders whether Reds right-hander Kyle Lohse will be this year's version of Royals righty Gil Meche, a talented but inconsistent pitcher who hits the jackpot on the open market.

It could happen.

Lohse, who turns 29 on Dec. 4, has done little to warrant a major long-term investment, but then, neither had Meche at this point a year ago.

Meche, then 28, was 55-44 with a 4.65 career ERA when he became a free agent. Lohse currently is 59-73 with a 4.84 career ERA. His strikeout rate is lower than Meche's was at the end of last season. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is higher. Their walks-and-hits-per-nine-innings ratios are nearly identical.

Lohse is almost certain to be traded to a contender before July 31. His performance in the final two months will help determine how well he fares as a free agent."

[uoduck1017]

Whatever team besides the Reds wants to give Kyle Lohse the jackpot, fine by us. Hopefully he can be traded for a prospect because I really don't see him having a future with the Reds.

[AmarilloRed]

He could have a future with the Reds if he could show some consistancy. Unfortunately he doesn't seem to be able to do it. I wish I could put Livingston's head on Lohse's body. We could have a pitcher with great stuff and lots of mental fortitude.

[Carolina Red]

Get rid of him. Million dollar arm, ten cent brain.

[AmarilloRed]

I am pretty sure he will be dealt by the trade deadline. He has great stuff, but has very little mental fortitude. We probably will not re-sign him unless he offers us a discount, and we can use the prospects we get for him.

[Orenda]

We gave up Zach Ward last year for him and that was obviously Minnesota's best offer. Do you think he could net a better return then Zach Ward this year? You also have to consider that the reds had control of him for another season last July, which would decrease his value this deadline
.