Didn't we learn anything from the trade of Kearns and Lopez?

[Bigredfan#1]

Trade Dunn for 2 middle relief pitchers? Good night, we were playing pretty well last year until the trade
(worst one in recent history IMO) and now we want to trade Dunn for MRPs. I am still at a loss at why we traded away 2 starters for 2 MRPs. Was supposed to help us to contend and it sent us down the drain, haven't been the same since!

[Chi-Town Red]

anything but 2 top prospects will be a disaster

[reds1869]

Trade Dunn for 2 middle relief pitchers? Good night, we were playing pretty well last year until the trade
(worst one in recent history IMO) and now we want to trade Dunn for MRPs. I am still at a loss at why we traded away 2 starters for 2 MRPs. Was supposed to help us to contend and it sent us down the drain, haven't been the same since!

It was a RUMOR on 1530 Homer. I'd hardly say the Reds are set on such a deal.

[durl]

How are the players we gave up doing?

Lopez: .230 BA/.282 OBP/3 HR/29 RBI
Kearns: .256 BA/.327 OBP/5 HR/26 RBI

What's funny to me is that if both these guys were putting up those numbers here in Cincy, everyone would be calling for them to be let go every single night.

What about players that took their spots?

Gonzalez: .265 BA/.306 OBP/12 HR/32 RBI
Hamilton: .261 BA/.342 OBP/9 HR/20 RBI (Up there with Kearns stat-wise and he hasn't played ball in 4 years. And a GREAT arm.)

Perhaps we didn't get everything we hoped for with "The Trade" but the jury's still out on Bray. He could be a very good pickup for a team that desperately needs middle relief. And just because things didn't turn out the way everyone hoped, that's no reason to expect EVERY trade for pitching to be a horrible one.

Our offense is good enough to be competing in any division. Our horrible ERA shows that this team needs pitching to protect the leads handed to them.

[muethibp]

How are the players we gave up doing?

Lopez: .230 BA/.282 OBP/3 HR/29 RBI
Kearns: .256 BA/.327 OBP/5 HR/26 RBI

What's funny to me is that if both these guys were putting up those numbers here in Cincy, everyone would be calling for them to be let go every single night.

What about players that took their spots?

Gonzalez: .265 BA/.306 OBP/12 HR/32 RBI
Hamilton: .261 BA/.342 OBP/9 HR/20 RBI (Up there with Kearns stat-wise and he hasn't played ball in 4 years. And a GREAT arm.)

Perhaps we didn't get everything we hoped for with "The Trade" but the jury's still out on Bray. He could be a very good pickup for a team that desperately needs middle relief. And just because things didn't turn out the way everyone hoped, that's no reason to expect EVERY trade for pitching to be a horrible one.

Our offense is good enough to be competing in any division. Our horrible ERA shows that this team needs pitching to protect the leads handed to them.

Well said. I am as unenamored with the trade last year as the next guy, but it's not like we gave up Ruth and Maris. Those guys each had their own individual red flags (each discussed here ad nauseum) and are not playing well this year. That limited, I am sure, what teams were willing to trade for them last year. In the end, the trade was as much about payroll flexibility this year than acquiring relief pitching.

However, I expect Dunn to continue to be an offense force in the future and see no reason to sell him for $.30 on the dollar.

[The Snow Chief]

Anyone who objectively looks at last year's numbers cannot blame the lack of Kearns and Lopez in the lineup for failing to make the playoffs. I did a breakdown of the batting averages last year from late August (when the Reds had imrpoved on their pre-trade record and were in a dead heat with St. Louis) to the end of the season. Dunn, Griff., Hatte, Phillips, EE, and Ross were all in huge slumps - many batting below .200. Meanwhile, Aurilla (who got most of the SS starts during that period) and Denorfia (who split with Freel for the extra outfield spot) hit better than Kearns and Lopez before the trade.

There is just no evidence to support the position that not having Kearns and Lopez cost us a playoff spot last year. It is one of those fallacies that gets repeated so often, it is taken as truth.

[kaldaniels]

Well said. I am as unenamored with the trade last year as the next guy, but it's not like we gave up Ruth and Maris. Those guys each had their own individual red flags (each discussed here ad nauseum) and are not playing well this year. That limited, I am sure, what teams were willing to trade for them last year. In the end, the trade was as much about payroll flexibility this year than acquiring relief pitching.

However, I expect Dunn to continue to be an offense force in the future and see no reason to sell him for $.30 on the dollar.

Fair enough, that said however...what if as an organazation decision the Reds decided to part ways with Dunn. Would you rather the Reds sell him on the cheap, or go the JimB route ala Soriano. I hope for the best return/decision to be made with Dunn of course, but the fact is, if the Reds decide to part ways, the market will mainly dictate the return on Dunn. Krivsky just has to make the best move with the options at hand.

[muethibp]

Fair enough, that said however...what if as an organazation decision the Reds decided to part ways with Dunn. Would you rather the Reds sell him on the cheap, or go the JimB route ala Soriano. I hope for the best return/decision to be made with Dunn of course, but the fact is, if the Reds decide to part ways, the market will mainly dictate the return on Dunn. Krivsky just has to make the best move with the options at hand.

If the decision is that we don't want him to be a part of the future, then, of course, it's better to trade him than let him walk. That's uncontroversial. On balance I don't think we would make that decision at this point given the enormous hole that would be left in the middle of the lineup.

[kaldaniels]

If the decision is that we don't want him to be a part of the future, then, of course, it's better to trade him than let him walk. That's uncontroversial. On balance I don't think we would make that decision at this point given the enormous hole that would be left in the middle of the lineup.

Whether or not the Reds try to resign Dunn is a valid debate...no doubt. However...Dunn has some pull in this as well...if he wants out he is gone and if the Reds get a signal from him that he is a goner or if they decide to part ways, what people need to realize is this is a situation different from the Kearns/Lopez trade. It could be a situation where the Reds just have to get what they can for Dunn and leave it at that. In that case, it would be unfair to criticize the low return IF in fact that is what happens. Look around all the threads on the board and everyone is putting their stake in that the Reds have to get a good return...it all will depend on how bad Dunn is wanted by the other teams, not so much Wayne Krivsky...but as said before, Krivsky just has to make the best decision with the options availble.

[muethibp]

Whether or not the Reds try to resign Dunn is a valid debate...no doubt. However...Dunn has some pull in this as well...if he wants out he is gone and if the Reds get a signal from him that he is a goner or if they decide to part ways, what people need to realize is this is a situation different from the Kearns/Lopez trade. It could be a situation where the Reds just have to get what they can for Dunn and leave it at that. In that case, it would be unfair to criticize the low return IF in fact that is what happens. Look around all the threads on the board and everyone is putting their stake in that the Reds have to get a good return...it all will depend on how bad Dunn is wanted by the other teams, not so much Wayne Krivsky...but as said before, Krivsky just has to make the best decision with the options availble.

Again, you're right. With Dunn people are guilty, like always, of overvaluing your own player. With Dunn's contract situation, a team either has to resign him to a very big number (and how many teams out there would do that?) or be aware that he can walk at the end of the year. Teams are not in the habit of sacrificing a top level prospect, let alone multiple prospects that people seem to think he could bring for either (1) the right to pay a defensively and conditioning challenged slugger $75 million over 5 years or (2) a 3 month rent-a-player.

[Degenerate39]

How are the players we gave up doing?

Lopez: .230 BA/.282 OBP/3 HR/29 RBI
Kearns: .256 BA/.327 OBP/5 HR/26 RBI

What's funny to me is that if both these guys were putting up those numbers here in Cincy, everyone would be calling for them to be let go every single night.

What about players that took their spots?

Gonzalez: .265 BA/.306 OBP/12 HR/32 RBI
Hamilton: .261 BA/.342 OBP/9 HR/20 RBI (Up there with Kearns stat-wise and he hasn't played ball in 4 years. And a GREAT arm.)

Perhaps we didn't get everything we hoped for with "The Trade" but the jury's still out on Bray. He could be a very good pickup for a team that desperately needs middle relief. And just because things didn't turn out the way everyone hoped, that's no reason to expect EVERY trade for pitching to be a horrible one.

Our offense is good enough to be competing in any division. Our horrible ERA shows that this team needs pitching to protect the leads handed to them.

Look at where Lopez and Kearns are playing. RFK. They did well when Washington came to Cincinnati and I'm sure they'd be doing well right now if they were still here. Lopez couldn't be doing any worse than Gonzo in the field who has what 11 errors. Plus Lopez gave us a solid lead off hitter which we do not have one.

[jimbo]

Lopez couldn't be doing any worse than Gonzo in the field who has what 11 errors.

As has been mentioned before, errors is not the sole basis of judging a player's defense. Even when considering the errors, Lopez is nowhere near the defensive SS that Gonzo is. The left side of the infield is much stronger this season than it has been for several years because of Gonzo.

[Degenerate39]

As has been mentioned before, errors is not the sole basis of judging a player's defense. Even when considering the errors, Lopez is nowhere near the defensive SS that Gonzo is. The left side of the infield is much stronger this season than it has been for several years because of Gonzo.

I agree but Gonzo isn't having a good year in the field. He's made some awesome catches though.

[nate]

Look at where Lopez and Kearns are playing. RFK. They did well when Washington came to Cincinnati and I'm sure they'd be doing well right now if they were still here. Lopez couldn't be doing any worse than Gonzo in the field who has what 11 errors. Plus Lopez gave us a solid lead off hitter which we do not have one.

OPS+ is park adjusted.

AGon OPS+: 98
FeLo OPS+: 67

Getting on base.

AGon OBP: .306
FeLo OBP: .282

note, FeLo OPS is 767 hitting second versus 606 when leading off. AGon hasn't hit lead off for the Reds this year but he's OPSing 1.084 in the two-spot.

Errors at SS.

AGon errors at SS (12) projected to 162 games (played 65): 27
FeLo errors at SS (5) projected to 162 games (played 26): 30

I dunno...Felipe is 6/12 compared to Alex's 0/1 in stolen bases.

I _would_ like to have 2005 Felipe playing second base though!

[jimbo]

I agree but Gonzo isn't having a good year in the field. He's made some awesome catches though.

Well, I just have to continue to disagree. There are a lot of aspects of playing SS and Gonzo is good at all of them. He is above average at turning a double play for example, something some fans don't recognize because all they see is 11 errors. The positives that Gonzo brings to the table at SS far outweigh the 11 errors he's made so far.

[George Anderson]

Well, I just have to continue to disagree. There are a lot of aspects of playing SS and Gonzo is good at all of them. He is above average at turning a double play for example, something some fans don't recognize because all they see is 11 errors. The positives that Gonzo brings to the table at SS far outweigh the 11 errors he's made so far.

I remember fans of Larry Bowa claiming that he was a better shortstop than Concepcion because he made fewer errors. A shortstop who covers alot of ground is more than likely going to have more errors than a shortstop who doesnt cover alot of ground. I think most will take Gonzo and his range albeit 11 errors over a shortstop with little range but few errors.

[Handofdeath]

How are the players we gave up doing?

Lopez: .230 BA/.282 OBP/3 HR/29 RBI
Kearns: .256 BA/.327 OBP/5 HR/26 RBI

What's funny to me is that if both these guys were putting up those numbers here in Cincy, everyone would be calling for them to be let go every single night.

What about players that took their spots?

Gonzalez: .265 BA/.306 OBP/12 HR/32 RBI
Hamilton: .261 BA/.342 OBP/9 HR/20 RBI (Up there with Kearns stat-wise and he hasn't played ball in 4 years. And a GREAT arm.)

Perhaps we didn't get everything we hoped for with "The Trade" but the jury's still out on Bray. He could be a very good pickup for a team that desperately needs middle relief. And just because things didn't turn out the way everyone hoped, that's no reason to expect EVERY trade for pitching to be a horrible one.

Our offense is good enough to be competing in any division. Our horrible ERA shows that this team needs pitching to protect the leads handed to them.

Well said. I would also point out that part of the reason the Reds were willing to part with Kearns and Lopez is that both of them have a well deserved reputation for not trying hard, not concentrating and having a bad attitude. I have yet to hear that about Hamilton or Gonzalez.

[Redsnake]

"Re: Didn't we learn anything from the trade of Kearns and Lopez?"


Didn't we beat this dead horse before? Seriously, I know where your coming from. Lopez/Kearns trade was not a good one and still stings. But are we going to compare the Kearns/Lopez trade to every transaction, miscue, firing or rumor we hear?

What's next Narron get's fired do to not having Kearns/Lopez? Headline: "Gonzo/Hamilton doom Reds rally with 5 combined errors, Kearns/Lopez would have been better." Or maybe Hot dog sales at GABP are down because Kearns/Lopez.

Dunn will net players that none of us probably heard of or we hate. But lets see how it effects the team before we decide if it's Kearns /Lopez all over again.

[AmarilloRed]

It seems to me that those who ignore the past are doomed to repeat it. If we learned nothing from trading two position players for two middle relievers, we will compound and make a worse mistake if we trade Griffey or Dunn.

[nate]

It seems to me that those who ignore the past are doomed to repeat it. If we learned nothing from trading two position players for two middle relievers, we will compound and make a worse mistake if we trade Griffey or Dunn.



Even if we trade Juan Castro for Pat Neshek and Chad Moeller for Rafael Betancourt?

My ridiculous example aside, the point is it depends on the return and how the players perform.

[durl]

It seems to me that those who ignore the past are doomed to repeat it. If we learned nothing from trading two position players for two middle relievers, we will compound and make a worse mistake if we trade Griffey or Dunn.

It depends on the team's need. If, for example, you've got one of the worst bullpens in baseball and you can trade position players without losing offensive output, you'd be well advised to trade for middle relievers.

In this case, the Reds DO have one of the worst bullpens in baseball. After "The Trade" our offense is still producing enough runs (both overall and per game) to be competitive in any division in the NL so we didn't sacrifice anything by giving up Kearns and Lopez.

It's OK to try to figure out what's wrong with this team but the arguments need to be valid.

[jimbo]

It seems to me that those who ignore the past are doomed to repeat it. If we learned nothing from trading two position players for two middle relievers, we will compound and make a worse mistake if we trade Griffey or Dunn.

These days middle relievers are a high commodity, almost every team is looking for them. I still don't see trading a few average position players for middle relievers as a mistake. It may not have worked out yet, but there is still a potenential for it to. The Nationals haven't exactly come out of the trade with flying colors.

If the Reds had a few more good dependable middle relievers in their bullpen, this season may be totally different at this point.

[ChatterRed]

Anyone who objectively looks at last year's numbers cannot blame the lack of Kearns and Lopez in the lineup for failing to make the playoffs. I did a breakdown of the batting averages last year from late August (when the Reds had imrpoved on their pre-trade record and were in a dead heat with St. Louis) to the end of the season. Dunn, Griff., Hatte, Phillips, EE, and Ross were all in huge slumps - many batting below .200. Meanwhile, Aurilla (who got most of the SS starts during that period) and Denorfia (who split with Freel for the extra outfield spot) hit better than Kearns and Lopez before the trade.

There is just no evidence to support the position that not having Kearns and Lopez cost us a playoff spot last year. It is one of those fallacies that gets repeated so often, it is taken as truth.

I, too, get sick of hearing how the Reds blew it after that trade. All I remember is the best part of the lineup all going into huge slumps and Griffey eventually shutting it down the rest of the season.

You are correct that there is NO EVIDENCE to support the position that not having Kearns and Lopez cost us a playoff spot last year.

Based on how bad Kearns and Lopez suck this year, I'm glad they're gone and that we have Hamilton and Gonzalez.

AT it's very worst, the trade was a WASH! A WASH. So all you idiots claiming it cost us the postseason please just be quiet and move on.

:deadhorse

[Doro]

I too am sick of hearing about this trade. You'd thing we traded two stars in that deal. We traded a SS who couldnt field and an outfielder that every team has the quality of.