Primer for Jerry: Proper starter and bullpen management

[mbgrayson]

There are many threads critical of Jerry Narron for mis-managing the pitching staff. Here is my guide to what he SHOULD be doing with each pitcher. It is based on some basic player by player splits from ESPN. (Note that each pitcher name is linked to their split stats).

1. Bronson Arroyo (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?playerId=4416). Never let him get past 105 pitches per game. Opponents are hitting .529 against him after pitch 105. Also far better road pitcher than home...3.88 ERA vs. 7.17.

2, Aaron Harang (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?playerId=5181). Pitching better at home....ERA 3.53 vs. 4.25 road. FAR better night game pitcher than day games....2.88 night vs. 5.19 day ERA.

3. Kyle Lohse (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?playerId=4789). Better day than night pitcher (2.15 vs. 5.88) , better home than away(3.27 vs. 5.61).

4. Matt Belisle (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?playerId=5829). Better road than home (3.91 vs. 5.51), needs to work on first inning. ..where opponents are hitting .333 against him. May need extra rest, since his monthly ERA is steadily climbing each month this season.

5. Homer Bailey (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?playerId=28668). (Small sample size warning). Better on the road so far...better at night.

6. Mike Stanton (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?playerId=2234). Better at night...(3.54 vs. 7.50), far better with 2 or more days rest.

7. Jon Coutlangus (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?playerId=28735). Never pitch on back to back days! On second consecutive day his ERA jumps to 8.71!

8. Todd Coffey (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?playerId=6221). Much better road pitcher (1.69 vs. 6.87), far better in day games (1.93 vs. 6.41). Better against lefties (.263 vs. .321). Best with exactly one day rest. (2.91).

9. Marcus McBeth (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?playerId=28698). (Small sample size warning). Better on zero or one day rest. Better home than away so far.

10. David Weathers (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?playerId=2560). Better on the road...(2.37 vs. 4.50). Better in day games...(1.42 vs. 4.43). Does far better with zero, one or two days rest. Drastic fall off if given 3 to 5 days rest (7.88).

11. Brad Salmon (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?playerId=28752). Much better on road (1.50 vs. 6.23). better at night(3.75 vs. 6.75). Don't pitch on back to back days! (11.57 ERA)

12. Victor Santos (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?playerId=4655). Much better road pitcher (2.46 vs. 6.33). Better night than day (3.76 vs. 7.45). Not good on back to back days, or with more than 6 days rest.

[joshnky]

So all we need is to figure out a way to use Harang and Lohse for all our home games and McBeth as the primary reliever and we'll be set. Since McBeth does pitch better on zero rest this might just work. ;)

All joking aside this is a nice analysis but I think it basically gives credence to the point that our pitchers pitch better on the road which is likely due to the less than favorable pitching conditions of GABP.

[mbgrayson]

I think it basically gives credence to the point that our pitchers pitch better on the road which is likely due to the less than favorable pitching conditions of GABP.

That much is certainly true. However, my point above was more than just that. For example, Coutlangus and Salmon should not pitch back to back days. Shuffle the rotation to get strengths in play. Use relievers properly by each person's strength. Etc.....

[CWRed]

I knew the info about the relievers before seeing the stats. Every time Cout, Coffey, and Stanton start struggling...hmm they have pitched too often!

[AmarilloRed]

You can't pick and choose when to use starters-they will have to pitch in all sort of conditions.

[durl]

That's very interesting info but virtually none of it can be used to modify strategy. It's impossible to pick a starter based upon the time of the game and whether he's home or away.

The only thing Narron can choose is when to use a reliever. He can go with someone who's hot, R/L matchup, or who's rested. When you've got 5 guys to choose from, most with ERAs above 5.00, sometimes you just rely on a pitcher to do what he's paid handsomely to do...even if it means pitching 20 pitches in 2 days. <gasp!!>

"Salmon! You're in!." "Can't, sir. I threw 8 pitches last night."
"Santos! You good?" "No, sir. Same for me. I faced 2 batters yesterday."
"OK. Coutlangus! How about you?" "Sorry, skipper. I pitched last night so that means I'm going to give up a run tonight. No can do."

I realize you can overwork a bullpen. The only other alternative is to leave the starters in for 7-8 innings regardless of pitch count. Then people will complain about Arroyo throwing 120 pitches each outing. You can't have it both ways.

[George Anderson]

Has any indepth analysis been done as to how the above mentioned pitchers performed after eating either chicken or beef at the pre game meal??? :p:

[durl]

Has any indepth analysis been done as to how the above mentioned pitchers performed after eating either chicken or beef at the pre game meal??? :p:

:bowrofl: Hilarious!

[mbgrayson]

That's very interesting info but virtually none of it can be used to modify strategy. .... The only other alternative is to leave the starters in for 7-8 innings regardless of pitch count.

This is nonsense. A manager can do better by using split stats to his advantage.

Jerry often mismanages this pitching staff. Look at the thread on Jon Courtlangas for a more detailed discussion on a particular player.

On a real life game by game level, lets take Wednesday's game as an example. Jerry and his coaching staff go into the game knowing that the night before, Coffey pitched 1/3, Cout 1/3, and Weathers pitched 1 and 1/3. They know the day before that Salmon pitched 1 and 1/3, and Santos 2 innings. They also know Thursday is an off day.

They decide Belisle is done after 6 innings and 104 pitches (I agree with them on this). Who should come in to pitch the 7th to protect a 1 run lead?

The batter is Bobby Crosby, who hits lefties better. We needed a righty, and we have McBeth, Coffey, Salmon, Santos, and Weathers to chose from.

They picked McBeth, who last pitched on the 15th, five days earlier. Crosby singles on a soft ground ball to second base. Next batter is Jason Kendall, who lines the third pitch to Hopper in right for the first out. Now Mark Ellis is up. Jerry leaves McBeth in. There is an 8 pitch battle, finally won by Ellis, who singles on a soft line drive to right.

Jerry brings in Jon Coutlangus to face Mark Kotsay, who has trouble with lefties. A wild pitch and eventually a walk result. Bases loaded, one out, Reds up by one. This may well be the key at bat of the game.

Up comes Nick Swisher, who is a switch hitter. However he hits lefties at a .377/.530/.574 clip, and righties at only a .260/.371/.456 rate. Narron leaves our lefty, Coutlangus, out there. He walks Swisher and ties the game. Now Eric Chavez is up. Cout stays in to face the lefty, and gives up a sac fly to put A's ahead by one.

Narron should have considered bringing in Dave Weathers. Although he pitched the day before, David does WELL in back to back situations ("Better on the road...(2.37 vs. 4.50). Better in day games...(1.42 vs. 4.43). Does far better with zero, one or two days rest."). He also will have the next day off regardless, and does well with bases loaded...opponent's average .286.

If Weathers gets out of it, he can pitch the 8th, and if we are still ahead, we have to get through the 9th....

Instead he brings in Coutlangus, who walks a lot of guys, and who does badly on consecutive days. Cout also had a walk rate twice what Weathers does.

There have been several studies showing that it makes more sense to bring in your closer in late inning situations where the game is truly on the line than to always hold him back for the 9th in 'save' situations. The Reds have had many times where the game was 'lost' in the 7th or 8th, and we never get the ball to Weathers.

Granted Weathers is not Papelbon, Putz, or Franky Rodriguez, but he IS the best we have. It should have been him facing Swisher in the 7th with the game on the line.

That would truly be playing the split stats to our advantage. Lots of teams do it, and succeed. Not always, there will of course be failures. But the Reds seem to continually make the wrong call. The Reds laugh at the Moneyball approach, and say things like "Has any in depth analysis been done as to how the pitchers performed after eating chicken or beef at the pre game meal???"

It is no accident that the teams embracing a statistical approach have a better overall record than the Reds, even though several, like Oakland, function with a small payroll comparable to ours.

As to moving starters around, we just did it. We pushed Arroyo back a day to give hime extra rest. All I am saying is to look at these split stats and make those small adjustments once in a while. Of course Arroyo will still pitch at GABP...he has to. But why not weave a Bobby Livingston into the rotation once in a while and put the others in situations where they can thrive? Or skip Belisle one turn? Or keep Harang in night games by giving his Sunday afternoon start to Lohse or Livingston? It can't always be done, but I think we could win at least a half dozen extra games by better pitching staff usage.

[reds44]

Sweet Jesus opponets are hittin .529 off of Bronson after pitch 105? WOW. That's Majewskiesque.

[durl]

This is nonsense. A manager can do better by using split stats to his advantage...

As to moving starters around, we just did it. We pushed Arroyo back a day to give hime extra rest. All I am saying is to look at these split stats and make those small adjustments once in a while. Of course Arroyo will still pitch at GABP...he has to. But why not weave a Bobby Livingston into the rotation once in a while and put the others in situations where they can thrive? Or skip Belisle one turn? Or keep Harang in night games by giving his Sunday afternoon start to Lohse or Livingston? It can't always be done, but I think we could win at least a half dozen extra games by better pitching staff usage.

Most of the stats provided were in regards to day/night and home/away pitching stats. That's impossible to manage around when it comes to starters and still extremely difficult when it comes to relievers. Most games are played at night so your "day" guys will pitch perhaps twice a week. And if there's a day game on Saturday, a manager would have to figure in the "can't pitch two days in a row" rule to the "day/night" rule.

Arroyo is a great example of tweaking the pitching schedule, but not for picking a rotation based upon day/night and home/away. Arroyo gets extra time to rest but Lohse will still be pitching on his normal 4-day break. It's great that Narron could make it work out that way.

That's some great analysis on the Wednesday night game and very well thought out. Weathers would be a great setup guy...except he's our only closer until Guardado comes back. (Coffey tried closing and did a lousy job.) In this situation, Narron could use our most dependable bullpen guy, Weathers, in the 7th and take a chance on guys with ERAs over 5 to close out the game when they're not used to that pressure. That concerns me.

Using Weathers could have been a good move, I'll give you that. I can't say Narron has been a genuis when it comes to how he handles the bullpen. And neither can I say that I blame him completely for their inability to hold the lead.

[JLB5]

I realize at times Narron is going to have to push guys and they are going to give up runs. That's part of baseball. No team has a BP with an ERA of 0.00. However, some of the things he does are just plain stupid and contribute to players not being able to perform their best when needed. Going back to Coutlangus, the most egregious misuse of this young man came in the final game against Texas. Bronson had gotten bombed and Santos came in as the mop up guy. Fine, perfect situation to let Santos eat some innings as he had not pitched in almost a week. Santos goes all of 1 and 1/3 of an inning and here comes Narron to bring in Coutlangus to face the lefty, pitching on his 3rd day in a row. That is a total waste of a pitcher and the kind of misuse that leads to bad outings down the road. He also ran Coffey out in that game rather than getting some work for a rested and inexperienced McBeth. Don't burn guys in a 11-4 loss!! Burn Santos and let the youngster get an inning, the team will be better for it.

Mbgrayson, Bill James would applaud you for suggesting to bring in Weathers in the 7th, but no mangager will ever bring his "closer" into the game that early in this day in age. Personally, I would have let McBeth work his way out of the jam, a DP ball ends it right there and nobody had hit him hard. If Jerry is going to obsess about LH vs. RH matchups, then he needs 3 lefties in his pen to avoid burning them out.

[mbgrayson]

Most of the stats provided were in regards to day/night and home/away pitching stats.

That is true as far as my comments with each pitcher. I just looked at some obvious things for each.

But click on the links on each pitchers name for more detail. For example, look at the opponent batting average for Todd Coffey depending on count. When he throws a 1st pitch strike, it is .231, first pitch ball it is .343. If Narron sees Coffey throwing 1st pitch balls, give him a short leash. Coffey is BAD when he gets behind, more so than most.

Lots of fun stuff in those ESPN split pages.....

[5DOLLAR-BLEACHERBUM]

This is nonsense. A manager can do better by using split stats to his advantage.

Jerry often mismanages this pitching staff. Look at the thread on Jon Courtlangas for a more detailed discussion on a particular player.

On a real life game by game level, lets take Wednesday's game as an example. Jerry and his coaching staff go into the game knowing that the night before, Coffey pitched 1/3, Cout 1/3, and Weathers pitched 1 and 1/3. They know the day before that Salmon pitched 1 and 1/3, and Santos 2 innings. They also know Thursday is an off day.

They decide Belisle is done after 6 innings and 104 pitches (I agree with them on this). Who should come in to pitch the 7th to protect a 1 run lead?

The batter is Bobby Crosby, who hits lefties better. We needed a righty, and we have McBeth, Coffey, Salmon, Santos, and Weathers to chose from.

They picked McBeth, who last pitched on the 15th, five days earlier. Crosby singles on a soft ground ball to second base. Next batter is Jason Kendall, who lines the third pitch to Hopper in right for the first out. Now Mark Ellis is up. Jerry leaves McBeth in. There is an 8 pitch battle, finally won by Ellis, who singles on a soft line drive to right.

Jerry brings in Jon Coutlangus to face Mark Kotsay, who has trouble with lefties. A wild pitch and eventually a walk result. Bases loaded, one out, Reds up by one. This may well be the key at bat of the game.

Up comes Nick Swisher, who is a switch hitter. However he hits lefties at a .377/.530/.574 clip, and righties at only a .260/.371/.456 rate. Narron leaves our lefty, Coutlangus, out there. He walks Swisher and ties the game. Now Eric Chavez is up. Cout stays in to face the lefty, and gives up a sac fly to put A's ahead by one.

Narron should have considered bringing in Dave Weathers. Although he pitched the day before, David does WELL in back to back situations ("Better on the road...(2.37 vs. 4.50). Better in day games...(1.42 vs. 4.43). Does far better with zero, one or two days rest."). He also will have the next day off regardless, and does well with bases loaded...opponent's average .286.

If Weathers gets out of it, he can pitch the 8th, and if we are still ahead, we have to get through the 9th....

Instead he brings in Coutlangus, who walks a lot of guys, and who does badly on consecutive days. Cout also had a walk rate twice what Weathers does.

There have been several studies showing that it makes more sense to bring in your closer in late inning situations where the game is truly on the line than to always hold him back for the 9th in 'save' situations. The Reds have had many times where the game was 'lost' in the 7th or 8th, and we never get the ball to Weathers.

Granted Weathers is not Papelbon, Putz, or Franky Rodriguez, but he IS the best we have. It should have been him facing Swisher in the 7th with the game on the line.

That would truly be playing the split stats to our advantage. Lots of teams do it, and succeed. Not always, there will of course be failures. But the Reds seem to continually make the wrong call. The Reds laugh at the Moneyball approach, and say things like "Has any in depth analysis been done as to how the pitchers performed after eating chicken or beef at the pre game meal???"

It is no accident that the teams embracing a statistical approach have a better overall record than the Reds, even though several, like Oakland, function with a small payroll comparable to ours.

As to moving starters around, we just did it. We pushed Arroyo back a day to give hime extra rest. All I am saying is to look at these split stats and make those small adjustments once in a while. Of course Arroyo will still pitch at GABP...he has to. But why not weave a Bobby Livingston into the rotation once in a while and put the others in situations where they can thrive? Or skip Belisle one turn? Or keep Harang in night games by giving his Sunday afternoon start to Lohse or Livingston? It can't always be done, but I think we could win at least a half dozen extra games by better pitching staff usage.

Well put, it goes to show you how having a top of the line closer can make all the difference in the world. If you have a guy like weathers in the 7th or 8th and someone like papelbon as a closer you don't need to pitch guys like cout, coffee, and salmon for a whole inning, you can use the match-ups to your advantage. I would love to see the Reds make a move to get-who am I kidding it aint gonna happen.

[durl]

That is true as far as my comments with each pitcher. I just looked at some obvious things for each.

But click on the links on each pitchers name for more detail. For example, look at the opponent batting average for Todd Coffey depending on count. When he throws a 1st pitch strike, it is .231, first pitch ball it is .343. If Narron sees Coffey throwing 1st pitch balls, give him a short leash. Coffey is BAD when he gets behind, more so than most.

Lots of fun stuff in those ESPN split pages.....

Don't we love stats? They're an occupational hazard for me. (Sometimes I think numbers are overrated but don't tell my boss.)

Don't get me wrong, I don't mean to be confrontational here and I hope it's not coming across like that. It just seems that there's too many factors under consideration that would make running a bullpen a completely scientific matter possible. Perhaps this is why I'd never make it as a manager. Things to consider when using a bullpen:

1 - Workload. Consecutive days?
2 - Pitch count.
3 - R/L matchup. (It IS a factor in most cases)
4 - Day or night?
5 - Home or away?
6 - Short leash? (Yanking him means all other factors come back into play for whoever comes in to relieve the reliever.)

When those factors are taken into account and there are only 5 guys in the mix, it's nearly impossible to make the right choice.

[mbgrayson]

I agree it is complicated. But there are 7 guys in the mix; we have been carrying 12 pitchers, 5 of whom are starters.

[JLB5]

I agree with you durl that there are too many factors to just use "splits" and stats to make the majority of decisions about when to pitch guys. Also, should note that the Reds carry 7 relievers (currently: Santos, Gosling, Salmon, McBeth, Coutlangus, Coffey, Weathers).

Jerry likes to R/L switch, so I think he could avoid abusing the pen by having a 3rd lefty (Bray's injury has been killer this year) or not worring so much about the matchups and not riding the "hot hand" so much. Narron has a tendency to ride the same 2 or 3 guys for several days in a row until they pitch themselves into bad outings and then turns to the other guys who have been sitting for 3 or more days getting rusty. And it is usually something pretty simple to keep things more in balance like not pitching Cout/Coffey in the 11-4 loss last
Sunday and getting McBeth and inning in that one.