Red's pitches seen per plate appearance

[mbgrayson]

Did some quick calculations using numbers from Fangraphs, like this page (http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=319&position=OF)on Adam Dunn. I took total pitches seen and divided it by plate appearances.

2007 Reds pitches seen per plate appearance(PPA):

1. David Ross 4.23
2. Adam Dunn 4.14
3. Ken Griffey Jr. 4.03
4. Ryan Freel 4.00
5. Scott Hatteberg 3.91
6. EE 3.83
7. Josh Hamilton 3.75
8. Chad Moeller 3.72
9. Alex Gonzalez 3.60
10. Brandon Phillips 3.54
11. Juan Castro 3.44
12. Javier Valentin 3.42


Your current MLB leader (http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/index.php?view=batting&linesToDisplay=50&orderBy=pPerPa&direction=DESC&qual_filter=1&season_filter%5B%5D=2007&league_filter%5B%5D=All&team_filter%5B%5D=All&pos_filter%5B%5D=All&Submit=Submit)is: Reggie Willits 4.4

"That said, the players in the bottom 20% of P/PA have an average on-base plus slugging (OPS) of 719 while those in the top 20% have an OPS of 797. Since OPS correlates very well with run production, it is therefore a good proxy, and because going deep into counts forces opposing pitchers to throw more pitches and tire sooner, it's safe to say that on average, players who see more pitches end up contributing more to their teams."

Articles on PPA:
1. Hardball Times (http://www.redszone.com/forums/"That said, the players in the bottom 20% of P/PA have an average on-base plus slugging (OPS) of 719 while those in the top 20% have an OPS of 797. Since OPS correlates very well with run production, it is therefore a good proxy, and because going deep into counts forces opposing pitchers to throw more pitches and tire sooner, it's safe to say that on average, players who see more pitches end up contributing more to their teams.")
2. Baseball Prospectus: Lengthening Pitch Counts (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4956)
3. Stats from Hardball Times (http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/index.php?view=batting&linesToDisplay=50&orderBy=pPerPa&direction=DESC&qual_filter=ignore&season_filter%5B%5D=2007&league_filter%5B%5D=2&team_filter%5B%5D=CIN&pos_filter%5B%5D=All&Submit=Submit)

I think there has been a noticeable drop in patience this year for the Reds. This allows the other team to have their starter go an extra inning or two, cuts down on walks, OBP, runs, and wins.

Certainly the bullpen, pitching in general, and poor hitting w/ RISP are part of the Reds decline this year....but lack of plate discipline is another factor.

[Screwball]

Wow, definitely didn't expect to see Ross or Freel at or near the top of that list. I guess that just goes to show that even when watching all (or nearly all) the games, you can still come away with an inaccurate assessment of a certain player. I like to call that Lance McAlister disease.

[Homer Bailey]

Ross is only at the top because he swings and misses so much and his at bats are almost always at least 3 pitches because he strikes out so much. I've seriously never seen a hitter strike out so much as Ross has this year. He may not have the most strikeouts or even the worst ratio, but I swear it seems like he strikes out at least twice every night.

[Screwball]

I've seriously never seen a hitter strike out so much as Ross has this year.

You must be stepping out of the room when Dunn bats. ;)

[mbgrayson]

Ross is only at the top because he swings and misses so much and his at bats are almost always at least 3 pitches because he strikes out so much. I've seriously never seen a hitter strike out so much as Ross has this year. He may not have the most strikeouts or even the worst ratio, but I swear it seems like he strikes out at least twice every night.

Ross has a 34% K rate....very high....Last year it was 30.4%. The bigger difference is in his walk rate. Last year it was 13%, this year it is 7%. Ross's BABIP has dropped from .278 to .225, and of course his batting average has dropped from .255 to .195. His OBP is down from .353 to .249....ouch. Detailed stats are HERE (http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1551&position=C)....

[AtomicDumpling]

Thanks for the stats. Very interesting.

Players that see more pitches are also more likely to strike out or walk because they consistently go deep in the count.

Can you look up the team average as a whole? And compare it to the # of pitches our pitchers throw per plate appearance?

[mbgrayson]

Last August 28th, right before the big fall from 1st, I noted in a thread HERE (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=50720&highlight=patience&page=2)on ORG that the Reds led the National League in pitches per plate appearance with 3.86.

Right now, at the half-way point, they are tied for third in the NL with a team average of 3.78 P/PA. See detailed team stats HERE (http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/teams/).

The other glaring stat on that page is team batting average with runners in scoring position. The Reds are dead, and I do mean dead, LAST, hitting .233. The next worse team is the D-backs, at .238. The league average BA/RISP is .259.

[He got it!]

Actually I think that Ross is at the top of the list because he hits in the 8 hole and pitchers are never giving him any first pitch fastballs or get ahead breaking balls with the pitcher on deck. They essentially try to pitch around Ross but he often ends up chasing bad pitches way out of the strike zone.