Why The Reds Need Adam Dunn

[Degenerate39]

Why The Reds Need Adam Dunn

1. He’s a consistent power hitter.
2. He’s the cheapest 40 home run guy you’ll find.
3. His defense isn’t as bad as everyone says.
4. He draws a 100 walks a season.
5. He gets in the run the last 3 seasons he’s had 102, 101, 92 RBIs.
6. He can steal bases every now and then.
7. He plays almost every day.
8. He stays healthy.

[redsupport]

his "defense" lost the game tonight

[redsfanmia]

Adam Dunn is a nice player on a team where he is the 4th or 5th best player in the line up. He is not a guy to build a team around and he is not worth 13 million a year for the Reds. He hasnt improved as a player in 5+ years and he needs to be traded for this team to make a step up.

[redsfanmia]

his "defense" lost the game tonight

Not the first game his defense has lost us and wont be the last.

[redsupport]

two out no body on, he "tries" for a single turns it into a double, just like Freel on Friday, the Reds have to be the dumbest team ever assembled, they would outdo Vince Young on the wonderlick test

[Degenerate39]

his "defense" lost the game tonight


Not the first game his defense has lost us and wont be the last.

How many games has his offense won us? More than his defense has lost I'll bet

[BearcatShane]

If they pick up Dunn's option we may be able to sign a decent releiver and an ok 4th starter. Here's my list why not to keep Adam Dunn:

1. He's too streaky and can go on 2-4 week slumps
2. His defence is better but still not good enough
3. He does not hit with RISP
4. He does not hit lefties well
5. 32% of his homers come when we are either up or down 5 runs
6. Too many solo Home Runs
7. He refuses to swing at a pitch thats a little outside and knock it the opposite way
8. The Reds need that money to improve in other areas

[redsupport]

9. Been around a losing team so long, the attitude rubs off on all these losers

[Degenerate39]

If they pick up Dunn's option we may be able to sign a decent releiver and an ok 4th starter. Here's my list why not to keep Adam Dunn:

1. He's too streaky and can go on 2-4 week slumps
2. His defence is better but still not good enough
3. He does not hit with RISP
4. He does not hit lefties well
5. 32% of his homers come when we are either up or down 5 runs
6. Too many solo Home Runs
7. He refuses to swing at a pitch thats a little outside and knock it the opposite way
8. The Reds need that money to improve in other areas

First of all is a decent 4th starter and a decent reliever going to hit 40 home runs and drive in 100 runs? No.

3&6. Is it his fault people aren't on base when he homers?
7. Why she he swing at balls?
8. They have money coming off of Milton and others to send on.

[Degenerate39]

9. Been around a losing team so long, the attitude rubs off on all these losers

Yeah, it's Dunn's attitude that makes the Reds lose real insightful.

[BearcatShane]

"First of all is a decent 4th starter and a decent reliever going to hit 40 home runs and drive in 100 runs? No."

No, I'm saying thats about all were gonna get in free agency if he have to pay him 13 mill in 2008.


"7. Why she he swing at balls?"

If the pitch is just a little outside all the really good to great players will take that pitch the other way. If he did that he'd drive in 120 per year.



"8. They have money coming off of Milton and others to send on."



With Milton off the books along with a Lohse, Hatteberg, and maybe a Weathers trade we'll have about 10-15 mill to spend. That will get us a decent releiver and an ok 4th starter, thats not enough. Don't forget, Arroyo and Harang are getting pretty big pay increases next year.

[BucksandReds]

Don't forget, Arroyo and Harang are getting pretty big pay increases next year.

I thought that was going t happen in 2009?

[TC81190]

Adam Dunn is not consistent, even HR wise, those even come in bunches, maybe less sparingly than his other type hits when he's in a slump. And 40 HR isn't beat all, cheap or not.

And I'm tired of hearing about how Dunn "isn't so bad" in LF, his defense is most of the time borderline tolerable, so the defensive metrics can take a hike as far as I'm concerned.

[Degenerate39]

Adam Dunn is not consistent, even HR wise, those even come in bunches, maybe less sparingly than his other type hits when he's in a slump. And 40 HR isn't beat all, cheap or not.

I mean consistent in season totals. Should've mentioned that before.

[captainmorgan07]

how many winning seasons has mr.dunn brought use with all those statistics.Hmm let me check zero im ready for a change.

[Degenerate39]

how many winning seasons has mr.dunn brought use with all those statistics.Hmm let me check zero im ready for a change.

So all the losing seasons are solely Dunn's fault?

[Mutaman]

So all the losing seasons are solely Dunn's fault?


No, they're partly his fault. His performance last September when we actually had a chance at doing something being Exhibit #1. Lets see what we can get for this guy.

[BearcatShane]

I thought that was going t happen in 2009?

You might be right but I think at least Arroyo is due to get a pretty big increase in 2008. But I could be wrong.

[BearcatShane]

This team needs a shakeup. Trading Weathers, Stanton, Lohse, Saarloos, and those types of players is fine but I think a major move needs to be made. This team has a few pieces to build around and in my opinion Adam Dunn is not one of them. I personally can't count on Dunn when it matters. Trade Dunn for the best offer avaliable and use the money you save with him combined with the money from Milton, Lohse, Weathers etc... I'm tired of not winning and if we only have 10-13 million to spend this offseason were not going to be able to improve this team a whole lot. 10 mill doesn't buy what it used to.

[Krawhitham]

First of all is a decent 4th starter and a decent reliever going to hit 40 home runs and drive in 100 runs? No.

3&6. Is it his fault people aren't on base when he homers?
7. Why she he swing at balls?
8. They have money coming off of Milton and others to send on.


He said IF they kept Dunn that is all they could afford

3&6 YES it is because he is up plenty of times with runners on and he does NOTHING with them, when the bases are empty he is more likely to get on base

No one on .266
runner on .248
scoring position .213
and heaven forbid scoring position with 2 outs .189

7. YES if it helps the team by moving a runner over he SHOULD swing. With runners on he fails 50% to at least put the ball in play

[TC81190]

He said IF they kept Dunn that is all they could afford

3&6 YES it is because he is up plenty of times with runners on and he does NOTHING with them, when the bases are empty he is more likely to get on base

No one on .266
runner on .248
scoring position .213
and heaven forbid scoring position with 2 outs .189

7. YES if it helps the team by moving a runner over he SHOULD swing. With runners on he fails 50% to at least put the ball in play

I've debated this many times and come to this conclusion but for some reason haven't been able to put it into words. Good job.

[AtomicDumpling]

Another reason to keep Adam Dunn that hasn't been mentioned yet is that he has led the Reds in runs scored every single year since he became a full-time player.

The guy scores 100+ runs per year.
The guy drives in 100+ RBIs per year. ...

...and all the "fans" want to do is run him out of town.


I am sure Adam Dunn is hoping the Reds don't pick up his option. He will make much more than $13 million on the open market. He can take his excellent production to another team with more knowledgable fans that will appreciate his contributions. Can't blame him for that.


Imagine how good Dunn's numbers would be if he had some good hitters before and after him in the lineup. You are not going to get too many RBIs when you have low-OBP guys like Freel and Phillips hitting in front of you. You are not going to get too many good pitches to hit when you are being "protected" by out machines like Gonzalez, Ross, Encarnacion and Conine. Put him on a team like the Red Sox, Yankees, Tigers, Indians or Phillies and his numbers will skyrocket. Combine that with the fact that he is still only 27 with lots of batting average and power improvement still to come and you will have a very exciting player on your hands.

But because we Reds "fans" hate strikeouts and enjoy small-ball (we aren't too smart) we will just have to watch him hit the big-time in another city.

It just amazes me how many people think Adam Dunn is a part of the problem here. Dunn, Griffey, Phillips and Hatteberg are the good guys. Gonzalez, Ross, Freel, and Conine are the bad guys offensively. Those are the guys you should be whining about, not Dunn.

The Reds are 5th in the league in scoring. So hitting is not the problem. If you take Dunn out of the lineup then you have messed up the only thing the Reds do well --> score runs.

The pitching is the problem for the Reds. The Reds are 13th in the league in pitching. And believe me, spending Dunn's salary on free agent pitching won't help at all. The problem with the Reds' pitching is so deep and pervasive that $13 million would be like putting a Band-aid on a severed head. Ditching Adam Dunn because you are too cheap to pay him will not fix the pitching staff.

[TC81190]

Another reason to keep Adam Dunn that hasn't been mentioned yet is that he has led the Reds in runs scored every single year since he became a full-time player.

The guy scores 100+ runs per year.
The guy drives in 100+ RBIs per year. ...

...and all the "fans" want to do is run him out of town.


I am sure Adam Dunn is hoping the Reds don't pick up his option. He will make much more than $13 million on the open market. He can take his excellent production to another team with more knowledgable fans that will appreciate his contributions. Can't blame him for that.


Imagine how good Dunn's numbers would be if he had some good hitters before and after him in the lineup. You are not going to get too many RBIs when you have low-OBP guys like Freel and Phillips hitting in front of you. You are not going to get too many good pitches to hit when you are being "protected" by out machines like Gonzalez, Ross, Encarnacion and Conine. Put him on a team like the Red Sox, Yankees, Tigers, Indians or Phillies and his numbers will skyrocket. Combine that with the fact that he is still only 27 with lots of batting average and power improvement still to come and you will have a very exciting player on your hands.

But because we Reds "fans" hate strikeouts and enjoy small-ball (we aren't too smart) we will just have to watch him hit the big-time in another city.

It just amazes me how many people think Adam Dunn is a part of the problem here. Dunn, Griffey, Phillips and Hatteberg are the good guys. Gonzalez, Ross, Freel, and Conine are the bad guys offensively. Those are the guys you should be whining about, not Dunn.

The Reds are 5th in the league in scoring. So hitting is not the problem. If you take Dunn out of the lineup then you have messed up the only thing the Reds do well --> score runs.

The pitching is the problem for the Reds. The Reds are 13th in the league in pitching. And believe me, spending Dunn's salary on free agent pitching won't help at all. The problem with the Reds' pitching is so deep and pervasive that $13 million would be like putting a Band-aid on a severed head. Ditching Adam Dunn because you are too cheap to pay him will not fix the pitching staff.


Nobody is proclaiming Conine, Ross, and Honzalez to be the Jesus of Baseball, and there's nothing wrong with that trio save Ross.

[rcb126]

If you want to beat the Reds. Pitch around Griffey and pitch around Dunn and pray that Phillips doesn't hurt you. That explains the walks. When I think of Dunn, I think of Dave Kingman. Some of you older fans might remember him. His occasional moonshots were impressive but he never helped anyone win a pennant.

[AmarilloRed]

Adam Dunn is a player the Reds can build around. I would sign him to a multi-year deal of 13-14 million a year for 2-3 years. Right now he and Griffey are the offensive leaders on the team, and I don't see that changing in the near future. Having a outfield of Freel and Hopper is not the sort of thing I want to see.

[AtomicDumpling]

If you want to beat the Reds. Pitch around Griffey and pitch around Dunn and pray that Phillips doesn't hurt you. That explains the walks. When I think of Dunn, I think of Dave Kingman. Some of you older fans might remember him. His occasional moonshots were impressive but he never helped anyone win a pennant.

Dave Kingman was a one-dimensional player. He hit home runs and that was it. Adam Dunn hits home runs (better than Kingman did) and he scores 100+ runs every year, has a MUCH higher career OPS, walks much more often and is just a far superior all around player than Dave Kingman.

Dave Kingman was a 4-time All Star and was one of the better players of the 1970's. So it is not exactly a slap in the face to compare someone to him.

[nate]

He said IF they kept Dunn that is all they could afford

3&6 YES it is because he is up plenty of times with runners on and he does NOTHING with them, when the bases are empty he is more likely to get on base

No one on .266
runner on .248
scoring position .213
and heaven forbid scoring position with 2 outs .189

7. YES if it helps the team by moving a runner over he SHOULD swing. With runners on he fails 50% to at least put the ball in play

Yeah but how often does he also fail to make an out?

No one on: 266/365/543
runners on: 248/358/547
RISP: 213/347/387
RISP with 2 outs: 189/362/378

Looking at how much great his OBP is than his average, I'd hazard a guess to say that guys aren't giving him much to hit in those situations. It also says to me that the Reds should be hit someone who's a threat behind Dunn all the time.

[Reds Freak]

how many winning seasons has mr.dunn brought use with all those statistics.Hmm let me check zero im ready for a change.

This is what I just don't understand. Dunn (and sometimes Griffey) are the scapegoats for the losing the past 5 years. If you put Pujols and ARod on this team the past 5 years, they wouldn't be any better with Joey Hamilton, Jimmy Haynes, Jimmy Anderson, Dave Williams, Eric Milton, etc. manning the rubber. This team hasn't sucked for so long because of Dunn and Griffey or because they don't jump into the stands after balls, they have sucked because they have had absolutely zero pitching (outside of Harang)...

[nate]

how many winning seasons has mr.dunn brought use with all those statistics.Hmm let me check zero im ready for a change.

How much worse would said seasons have been without him?

I'm ready for a change too, but its not Dunn's fault with Reds aren't successful. Its because they allow more runs than they score and they score a ton of runs.

[nate]

No, they're partly his fault. His performance last September when we actually had a chance at doing something being Exhibit #1. Lets see what we can get for this guy.

I dunno, the prospects seem pretty bleak because of that one month! :rolleyes:

[tbball10]

bearcat shane. you have passed me up for most intelligent poster on here. Great points! dunn should be traded, and we will hopefully spend that $$ on some key pieces to a playoff team.

[JLB5]

Another reason to keep Adam Dunn that hasn't been mentioned yet is that he has led the Reds in runs scored every single year since he became a full-time player.

The guy scores 100+ runs per year.
The guy drives in 100+ RBIs per year. ...

...and all the "fans" want to do is run him out of town.


I see this one a lot. But remember, he hits 40 HRs, so you are counting them in both columns. It's more like he scores 100 and drives in 60. To replace Dunn, you don't need to replace 200 runs, you need to replace 160 actual runs produced. Home runs are sexy, but I'd rather have a guy who hits 25 HRs, scores 90 runs, and drives in 110 which equals 175 actual runs produced. I know, those guys don't grow on trees either.

No matter where Dunn plays, he is going to draw the criticism of fans as long as he strikes out at record pace. There is no mystical fan base who thinks strikeouts are OK. It's not that he strikes out a lot, he strikes out more than anybody else. He has the single season record and flirts with 200 every year. That is going to draw extra attention and extra criticism, justly or not.

[nate]

I see this one a lot. But remember, he hits 40 HRs, so you are counting them in both columns. It's more like he scores 100 and drives in 60. To replace Dunn, you don't need to replace 200 runs, you need to replace 160 actual runs produced. Home runs are sexy, but I'd rather have a guy who hits 25 HRs, scores 90 runs, and drives in 110 which equals 175 actual runs produced. I know, those guys don't grow on trees either.

I think you may see two guys like that next year: Joey Votto and Jay Bruce. I think it would be awesome to have all three, my dammy.



No matter where Dunn plays, he is going to draw the criticism of fans as long as he strikes out at record pace. There is no mystical fan base who thinks strikeouts are OK. It's not that he strikes out a lot, he strikes out more than anybody else. He has the single season record and flirts with 200 every year. That is going to draw extra attention and extra criticism, justly or not.

So? He also manages to not make an out a pretty fair percentage of the time. Would you rather he fouls out more? He's a big guy with a big swing and a big strike zone.

RBIs divorced from home runs are a _team_, not an individual stat. Dunn would get more _team_ RBIs if:

*There were more men in scoring position when he came to bat (currently 75 bats with RISP as opposed to 238 without men in RISP)
*He would have a better hitter behind him or hit higher in the order (before Griffey)
*Improved his batting approach

I'd love for him to hit better with RISP but he needs better protection in the lineup and more opportunities to hit with RISP.

[SMcGavin]

The Reds are 5th in the league in scoring. So hitting is not the problem. If you take Dunn out of the lineup then you have messed up the only thing the Reds do well --> score runs.


Absolutely correct.

[SMcGavin]

No matter where Dunn plays, he is going to draw the criticism of fans as long as he strikes out at record pace. There is no mystical fan base who thinks strikeouts are OK. It's not that he strikes out a lot, he strikes out more than anybody else. He has the single season record and flirts with 200 every year. That is going to draw extra attention and extra criticism, justly or not.

I agree, Dunn will catch flak from the fans wherever he goes. That is not the case with the people actually running the team though. I only hope our front office is smart enough to realize that his strikeouts don't stop him from being a very productive player, because there certainly are other organizations who are smart enough to figure that one out.

[TheWalls]

I see this one a lot. But remember, he hits 40 HRs, so you are counting them in both columns. It's more like he scores 100 and drives in 60. To replace Dunn, you don't need to replace 200 runs, you need to replace 160 actual runs produced. Home runs are sexy, but I'd rather have a guy who hits 25 HRs, scores 90 runs, and drives in 110 which equals 175 actual runs produced. I know, those guys don't grow on trees either.

No matter where Dunn plays, he is going to draw the criticism of fans as long as he strikes out at record pace. There is no mystical fan base who thinks strikeouts are OK. It's not that he strikes out a lot, he strikes out more than anybody else. He has the single season record and flirts with 200 every year. That is going to draw extra attention and extra criticism, justly or not.

This issue of strikeouts is a key one. They are easily the least productive type of at bat - no chance to move runners on, no chance for the defense to make a mistake, totally useless.

SOOO many times he is place in a situation to at a MINIMUM produce a useful out by moving a runner over or hit a sac fly and he is CONSISTENTLY unable to do this. Count me in the SHIP HIM camp.

[TheWalls]

Gee, RISP (BP on 2nd) and nobody out and he whiffs again!:bang:

[Screwball]

They are easily the least productive type of at bat - no chance to move runners on, no chance for the defense to make a mistake, totally useless.


There's also no chance to hit into a double play.

[captainmorgan07]

dunn's defense has not gotten anybetter in fact i think it has gotten worse. Some of the balls the fall infront of him an average left fielder would have gotten to. What drives me nuts about dunn the most though is his inability to drive in runs with men in scoring position and he never moves the man over if he has the chance. If we do trade him we need to get equal or better value for him this may be the trade that makes or break wayne krivsky.

[Lockdwn11]

There's also no chance to hit into a double play.

Although a DP is the least desirable thing that can happen at the plate it can still be productive if your tied up in the bottom of the 9th bases loaded it could win you a game.lol

[Degenerate39]

Although a DP is the least desirable thing that can happen at the plate it can still be productive if your tied up in the bottom of the 9th bases loaded it could win you a game.lol

Unless if you're thrown out at home

[Lockdwn11]

Unless if you're thrown out at home

right but you have 0 chances with a strike out

[Screwball]

right but you have 0 chances with a strike out

That's simply not true. The ball may get away from the catcher and you can advance to 1st. Even though it goes down as a strikeout, it can still score a run. And while it may not happen too often, it does happen more often than 0 out of 100 times.

[nate]

right but you have 0 chances with a strike out

Not true, the team has _at least_ one more chance if you strike out rather than hitting into a DP.

[AmarilloRed]

bearcat shane. you have passed me up for most intelligent poster on here. Great points! dunn should be traded, and we will hopefully spend that $$ on some key pieces to a playoff team.

You are both wrong. I am the most intelligent poster on The Sun Deck; and it is because I would keep Adam Dunn and build the team around him. There are not many outfielders who can score 100 runs, walk 100 times have an OBP of .400, drive in 100 runs, and consistantly hit 40 hrs. I do wish his defense was better and he would hit for a higher average. I also wish he would do better with runners in scoring position, but he has marginally improved as a player this year.
He has a couple flaws as a player, but I would still pick up his option and re-sign him.:laugh:

[Ahhhorsepoo]

Why The Reds Need Adam Dunn

1. He’s a consistent power hitter.
2. He’s the cheapest 40 home run guy you’ll find.
3. His defense isn’t as bad as everyone says.
4. He draws a 100 walks a season.
5. He gets in the run the last 3 seasons he’s had 102, 101, 92 RBIs.
6. He can steal bases every now and then.
7. He plays almost every day.
8. He stays healthy.

1. Consistent and Adam Dunn are never in the same sentence, he is as streaky as they come..
2. Griffey is cheaper and if he stays healthy he is a 40 homer guy, same with B Phill if he keeps improving like he has the past few years..
3. Stephen Hawking thinks his defense is bad..
4. Woo Hoo a hundred walks infront of Edwin, Gonzo, and David Ross.. that always helps the other team turn a dp..
5. sad that almost half of his rbis = his homerun total..
6. Matt Belisle also has stolen a base this year..
7. To play everyday in the national league you have to play defense..
8. Being Healthy and terribe is nothing good to have, unless he is improving... which is not something Dunn does..

I also thought jacoby was brought in to cut the k's.. his k value is on pace to break his own record...

[Degenerate39]

1. Consistent and Adam Dunn are never in the same sentence, he is as streaky as they come..
2. Griffey is cheaper and if he stays healthy he is a 40 homer guy, same with B Phill if he keeps improving like he has the past few years..
3. Stephen Hawking thinks his defense is bad..
4. Woo Hoo a hundred walks infront of Edwin, Gonzo, and David Ross.. that always helps the other team turn a dp..
5. sad that almost half of his rbis = his homerun total..
6. Matt Belisle also has stolen a base this year..
7. To play everyday in the national league you have to play defense..
8. Being Healthy and terribe is nothing good to have, unless he is improving... which is not something Dunn does..

I also thought jacoby was brought in to cut the k's.. his k value is on pace to break his own record...

1. His home run totals over the last few years: 46, 40, 40 and so far this year 25.
2. Griffey is a 37 year old man so how many more years does he have left? 3 or 4? Dunn is 27 and he can play 13 more seasons.
3. Stephen Hawkings is one of the greatest minds in the world.
4. Everyone would be complaining if he didn't take some walks.
6. Dunn 8 for 10 in stolen bases
7. Prince Fielder? Miguel Cabrera? The list can go on with good players that have a ton of errors.
8. How in God's name is Adam Dunn terrible? That's the most ridiculous thing I've EVER heard.

[BearcatShane]

I don't think people realize that if Adam Dunn is infact traded that the Reds will still be a top 5 home run team. It's not totally out of the question that the Reds could lead baseball again in homers in 2008 if Dunn is traded, depending on his replacement. Adam Dunn is a good player but I just feel we could have a better fit out there.

[tbball10]

You are both wrong. I am the most intelligent poster on The Sun Deck; and it is because I would keep Adam Dunn and build the team around him. There are not many outfielders who can score 100 runs, walk 100 times have an OBP of .400, drive in 100 runs, and consistantly hit 40 hrs. I do wish his defense was better and he would hit for a higher average. I also wish he would do better with runners in scoring position, but he has marginally improved as a player this year.
He has a couple flaws as a player, but I would still pick up his option and re-sign him.:laugh:

dunn has had a .400 obp once in his career and it was in 2002. his obp this season is .358. bottom line is, hes just not worth $13 million.

[improbus]

I've never been a numbers guy (so you can probably guess where this is going.) You can throw numbers at me all day, but I need the player to pass the "eye" test. I need to see him, how he plays, how he carries himself, how he reacts to the game, etc... to call him a great player. The Reds have had a bunch of guys who had it, whether they were great players or not. Perez had it, Rose had it, Paul O'Neil had it, Greg Vaughn had it, Larkin had it. They've also had guys who were great players but didn't have it like Eric Davis. Dunn doesn't have it. I've never seen him break a bat after a strikeout, instead he walks back to the dugout like nothing ever happened. Now, I understand that strikeouts are more accepted than they once were but I still want to see something. Nothing about Dunn says "winner."
Now, I fully understand that he can only do so much. He can't improve the pitching staff, he can't save games, etc... But I don't feel remotely confident with him up in a clutch situation. I would rather see Griff, Hatti, Phillips, and maybe even Gonzo in a big at bat. I cringe anytime a ball is hit into left field. Those are not things you should say about someone that is supposedly worth 13 mil.

But, for you numbers guys, check these out.

Career average w/ RISP .218 (Phillips .260) (Griff .290) (Hatti .271)
w/ Bases Empty .250
w/ 2 outs .225
Finally, this is really strange. Dunn gets worse the longer he sees a pitcher
1st AB vs. sp: .257
2nd AB vs. sp: .244
3rd AB vs. sp: .247

Look @ Phillips
1st AB vs. sp: .255
2nd AB vs. sp: .250
3rd AB vs. sp: .282

Junior
1st AB vs. sp: .284
2nd AB vs. sp: .302
3rd AB vs. sp: .312

Hatteberg
1st AB vs. sp: .275
2nd AB vs. sp: .266
3rd AB vs. sp: .306

One final note: Dunn's webpage on baseball-reference is sponsored by the Rob Deer fan club, which might really be all we need to know.

[AmarilloRed]

You show us his career average; how is he doing this year. I believe he has markedly improved this year, and I would like to see some stats on how he is doing this year.

[kyred14]

Reading this thread makes me wonder if some of you people are Reds fans, or people who just hate Adam Dunn. I can understand if you don't like Dunn's game, heck he's my favorite player, and he drives me nuts sometimes. But to call him "terrible" or "not productive" is just idiotic.

When I read threads like this one, I feel embarrassed to be a Reds fan. Thankfully for those "fans" on this thread, it doesn't appear you will have to put up with the big guy much longer So you can finally get Hopper or whoever the heck they replace him with.

Hopefully they will have "it," whatever the hell that means.

[nate]

You show us his career average; how is he doing this year. I believe he has markedly improved this year, and I would like to see some stats on how he is doing this year.

Interesting:

2007: .256/.359/.540
Career: .246/.378/.515

[nate]

Reading this thread makes me wonder if some of you people are Reds fans, or people who just hate Adam Dunn. I can understand if you don't like Dunn's game, heck he's my favorite player, and he drives me nuts sometimes. But to call him "terrible" or "not productive" is just idiotic.

When I read threads like this one, I feel embarrassed to be a Reds fan. Thankfully for those "fans" on this thread, it doesn't appear you will have to put up with the big guy much longer So you can finally get Hopper or whoever the heck they replace him with.

Hopefully they will have "it," whatever the hell that means.

I feel the same way but I'm betting a lot of it is due to frustration with the team's record.

[I(heart)Freel]

It's not about whether Dunn is a good player, or productive, or accounts for this many runs.

It's about whether his $13 mill salary in 2008 is worth it. For this team. Right now.

Were this a fantasy team, well, yea... would be great to have him. But baseball economics are real. The Reds have a real budget. So again, answer the real questions at hand:

Is Dunn - for his power AND his flaws - worth $13 million? Can the team use that money better in 2008 to compete? Do we have options for left field if we traded Dunn that cost a fraction of that and make up some of his production?

I say if we got some young, cheap player via trade that can really help us in 2008-2011 PLUS then had Dunn's salary to spend to address this team's glaring problems, then I say the Reds do not need Dunn.

[TheWalls]

There's also no chance to hit into a double play.

High expectations for the power and RBI guy in your lineup.:bang:

[improbus]

Reading this thread makes me wonder if some of you people are Reds fans, or people who just hate Adam Dunn. I can understand if you don't like Dunn's game, heck he's my favorite player, and he drives me nuts sometimes. But to call him "terrible" or "not productive" is just idiotic.

When I read threads like this one, I feel embarrassed to be a Reds fan. Thankfully for those "fans" on this thread, it doesn't appear you will have to put up with the big guy much longer So you can finally get Hopper or whoever the heck they replace him with.

Hopefully they will have "it," whatever the hell that means.

I'm a huge fan, otherwise I wouldn't have spent almost an hour putting that post together. In the end, here's my point. Dunn is overvalued. I'm not saying he's a bad player, but he is overvalued. If the Reds sign him for $12-13 like Amarillo says, then he will be making the same money as the following players:
Carlos Beltran
Carlos Lee
Magglio Ordonez
Derrek Lee
Andruw Jones
Chipper Jones
Miguel Tejada
David Ortiz
Vlad Guerrero
Albert Pujols
Hideki Matsui
Travis Hafner
Is Dunn as good as any of those players? Is he worth the same amount of money as any of those players? Those are guys who fight for the triple crown, win gold gloves, knock in 140 runs, and win MVP's. I would take any one of those guys over Dunn in a heartbeat.

The Reds will NEVER be competitive if they pay Adam Dunn $12-13 million dollars. Remember, they will need to give Phillips and Hamilton big time raise in the near future, so that will effectively eat up Griffey's or Milton's contract. Also, they will need to overpay for bullpen help, because everyone needs it, not just Cincy. They still need a starter or two, and replacements for all of the aging guys (Hatteberg, Conine, Guardado, Weathers, etc...) Also, I would guess that Gonzalex is not the long term solution at Short. So, I just don't see how the Reds can complete with an one dimensional player making that kind of money. In the end, I really don't think the Reds need Dunn to score runs, especially in GABP. It's like the Home Run numbers in that stadium have warped our minds.

I want the Reds to win worse that anything. But, they're like that dumb uncle you have that is always making the wrong decision. You know the one. The guy that lives in a tiny apartment, but owns a $25,000 motorcycle in Ohio, plays the lottery every day, and doesn't plan financially for any period of time over a month. He shows up to every family gathering with a different and scarier woman everytime, and wears jeans to weddings. That's the Reds. I love them (him) dearly, but they need help.

p.s. my uncle really does those things....:(

[BLEEDS]

10 mill doesn't buy what it used to.

It certainly doesn't. See what you can get for Adam Dunn's salary out in the open market this off-season.

$10M might get you a .275 15 HR/75 RBI OF-er.

Adam Dunn at $13M is a Freakin Bargain!

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[JLB5]

And, improbus, that is the bottom line. Can the Reds afford to tie up 1/5 of their team payroll in one player who is not a frontline starting pitcher or a triple crown threat?

If they trade him, the question becomes how much of his production can they replace and at what cost? And, how much can they improve the defense and pitching to offset that loss in offensive production? They could lose as much as .5 run in production per game. Can they improve team ERA by 1 run a game? That would be a net gain of .5 runs per game. Those are the questions that need to be answered when it comes to trading Dunn.

[SMcGavin]

I can certainly respect the argument that the Reds would be better spending Dunn's money elsewhere. However, after watching the free agent market this past offseason I think there is no way you are going to replace Dunn's value by spending $13M in free agent dollars. Some guys who got close to $13M last season - Juan Pierre, Gary Matthews Jr, Gil Meche. Secondly, look at the free agents who are gonna be out there. The only starter who would be a sure upgrade over what we have is Carlos Zambrano, and I would be shocked if gets a deal for $13M/year or less.

To answer JLB's question: if you trade Dunn, you are likely replacing him with Hopper or Freel. That is a huge drop in production (Dunn's .904 OPS vs. Hopper and Freel in the .650 range). It is my opinion that the money saved from Dunn will not be enough to offset that production loss in another area of the team.

[nate]

I'm a huge fan, otherwise I wouldn't have spent almost an hour putting that post together. In the end, here's my point. Dunn is overvalued. I'm not saying he's a bad player, but he is overvalued. If the Reds sign him for $12-13 like Amarillo says, then he will be making the same money as the following players:
Carlos Beltran
Carlos Lee
Magglio Ordonez
Derrek Lee
Andruw Jones
Chipper Jones
Miguel Tejada
David Ortiz
Vlad Guerrero
Albert Pujols
Hideki Matsui
Travis Hafner
Is Dunn as good as any of those players?

Yes.

Carlos Beltran: Offensively over their entire career, I think Dunn has better numbers. This year, Dunn is better in almost every way. Defensively, Beltran is much better and plays a more important defensive position. I think its harder to call than it looks. Triple crown for Beltran? No...he's hit above .300 twice.

Carlos Lee: I'll take Dunn because he's younger. The numbers are surprisingly similar. Dunn gets his OPS from OBP and SLG where Lee gets his from average. Otherwise, their 2007 OPS+is about the same: 127 for Dunn and 121 for Lee.

Magglio Ordonez: Mags is a better player but he's 6 years older. I dunno if I invest $13mm in that...especially if I'm the Reds.

Derrek Lee: Not quite the power of Dunn but a very good hitter. Of course with Lee it comes down to whether I want him at 1st or Joey Votto (or Votto in LF!) I dunno.

Andruw Jones: Jones is terrible this year. The 2000 model has left the building methinks. Over their career, Jones OPS+ = 116 to Dunn's 127. I take Dunn.

Chipper Jones: Larry is pretty good this year. But he's 35. He's been a very good offensive player over the years and has a career OPS+ of 143. He's not worth $13mm to me if I'm the Reds GM.

Miguel Tejada: He's hitting pretty well but has missed a few games for the first time in a long time. The power numbers have been declining for the past 3 years. Not interested.

David Ortiz: Ortiz is awesome, but he's a glove owner and we play in the NL. Is he worth $13mm based on his offense only? Yeah, and more probably.

Vlad Guerrero: I think Vlad is awesome. Just a great hitter and one of the few guys on this list that might've won a Triple Crown. He's much better than Dunn all-around...he's also 31.

Albert Pujols: Who knows how old Albert really is? He's the closest in age to Dunn of all the guys on this list. He's a better hitter and all-around player. To me, he's worth $13mm (which would be a deal because he's making $14mm this year!)

Hideki Matsui: He's a good hitter and comparable to Dunn in terms of OPS+ (125 to 127) but he's getting older (33) and making...$13mm!

Travis Hafner: Another good hitter but he only plays one half of the inning (although some will argue this about Dunn too) and the most games he's ever played in a season is 140. Offensively better than Dunn because he walks a lot. Also outslugging Dunn on the season. Career OPS+ of 154. He's now 30.


Is he worth the same amount of money as any of those players? Those are guys who fight for the triple crown, win gold gloves, knock in 140 runs, and win MVP's. I would take any one of those guys over Dunn in a heartbeat.

I only see one or two guys who might _seriously_ compete for a Triple crown: Pujols and maybe Vlad or Ortiz. Pujols is the only one on that list who's under 30 though and he's making exactly the kind of jack you're talking about.


The Reds will NEVER be competitive if they pay Adam Dunn $12-13 million dollars. Remember, they will need to give Phillips and Hamilton big time raise in the near future, so that will effectively eat up Griffey's or Milton's contract. Also, they will need to overpay for bullpen help, because everyone needs it, not just Cincy. They still need a starter or two, and replacements for all of the aging guys (Hatteberg, Conine, Guardado, Weathers, etc...) Also, I would guess that Gonzalex is not the long term solution at Short. So, I just don't see how the Reds can complete with an one dimensional player making that kind of money. In the end, I really don't think the Reds need Dunn to score runs, especially in GABP. It's like the Home Run numbers in that stadium have warped our minds.

Well, that's the real argument, if he's the right fit for the Reds. I think that paying that kind of money is right in line with his production and age. Besides, what do they get if they don't extend him? They'll have to offer arbitration to him in order to get draft picks. If he accepts, arbitration could rule that he'd actually get _MORE_ than he'd get if took the extension. That would _REALLY_ suck because now you're paying a guy you essential told "we don't need you" more than you would've had you just extended him.


I want the Reds to win worse that anything. But, they're like that dumb uncle you have that is always making the wrong decision. You know the one. The guy that lives in a tiny apartment, but owns a $25,000 motorcycle in Ohio, plays the lottery every day, and doesn't plan financially for any period of time over a month. He shows up to every family gathering with a different and scarier woman everytime, and wears jeans to weddings. That's the Reds. I love them (him) dearly, but they need help.

Yeah, and I agreed with your analysis that we need bullpen and starter help. We also need a right handed bat and probably a better hitting catcher. But the main thing we have to do is reduce the runs scored to runs allowed deficit. I still maintain that a league average bullpen would have us close to .500 _this_ year. League average pitching would have us close to 1st.

[I(heart)Freel]

I can certainly respect the argument that the Reds would be better spending Dunn's money elsewhere. However, after watching the free agent market this past offseason I think there is no way you are going to replace Dunn's value by spending $13M in free agent dollars. Some guys who got close to $13M last season - Juan Pierre, Gary Matthews Jr, Gil Meche. Secondly, look at the free agents who are gonna be out there. The only starter who would be a sure upgrade over what we have is Carlos Zambrano, and I would be shocked if gets a deal for $13M/year or less.

To answer JLB's question: if you trade Dunn, you are likely replacing him with Hopper or Freel. That is a huge drop in production (Dunn's .904 OPS vs. Hopper and Freel in the .650 range). It is my opinion that the money saved from Dunn will not be enough to offset that production loss in another area of the team.


Ah, now we're getting closer.

Freel/Hopper replace some part of Dunn's production AND upgrade the defense tremendously AND you have that $13 million to spend. Would $13 mill spent on quality bullpen arms and perhaps an upgraded bench be enough to offset the production loss?

I argue yes.

We have a good enough lineup to score runs. That's been proven. Methinks we need to address the other side of the equation: spend that money on preventing runs.

That doesn't mean just blowing it on a dumb signing. Clearly any one pushing for a Dunn trade (as I am) knows that this move only makes sense if you can back it up with some good signings. And I'm sure we'll debate those moves ad nauseum.

But I'd rather risk that than field pretty much the exact same squad in 2008 and expect that we'd be any better in the standings.

[BLEEDS]

If the Reds sign him for $12-13 like Amarillo says, then he will be making the same money as the following players:

You'd better get a better sample size and statistics for THIS YEAR, since ALL of these guys make ~33%+ more than Adamn Dunn THIS YEAR, with the exception of Hafner. AND, many of these guys don't play LF.

Also, stating that ONE of these guys is a 145RBI guy (Ortiz) and ONE of these guys is a Gold Glove OF-er helps your cause. Not ALL of these guys are Gold-Glove, Batting Champ, 45 HR/150 RBI guys. They all have their flaws - and like I said currently make 33%+ more than Dunn.


Carlos Beltran - makes $13.5M THIS YEAR (3.0M more than Dunn) .258/.340/.463 - I'd say Dunners having a better year. What's his 2008 Salary?
Carlos Lee - $11.5M this year, good Bargain for Houston, what's his 2008 Salary? Career stats compare to Dunns
Magglio Ordonez - $13.2M THIS YEAR, what's his 2008 Salary?
Derrek Lee - $13.2M THIS YEAR, and plays 1B
Andruw Jones - $14M THIS YEAR, perrenial All-Star and Gold Glover, having a bad year. What's his 2008 Salary? His career stats - other than the Gold Gloves - compare to Dunns
Chipper Jones - $12.33M THIS YEAR, and he plays 3B
Miguel Tejada - $13.8M, and he's a SS
David Ortiz - $13.25M THIS YEAR, he's an All-World DH, what's his 2008 Salary?
Vlad Guerrero - $14.5M THIS YEAR - ALL WORLD, no argument, what's his 2008 Salary?
Albert Pujols - $13M THIS YEAR and plays 1B
Hideki Matsui - $13M THIS YEAR

Travis Hafner - $14.25M NEXT YEAR - is a DH, and he took a DISCOUNT to stay in Cleveland. Could have got $15M+ easy on the open market.


I'd take Dunn over 1/2 the guys mentioned above, especially at their salary. By a LOT of people's opinions, we can't afford to have ANY of those guys on our roster. Their salaries in the open market would be $15M+ as well.

The Bottom line is: Dunn is a BARGAIN at $10M, in LF, in the NL.
Signing him to an AVERAGE deal of $13M for 4-5 years would be a bargain as well. On the OPEN MARKET he'd get a 5 year $75M deal EASY!!

IFF we could build around him with Bruce and Votto in the next 2-3 years, and moving him up in the order he'd get more Protection and would shine.
Imagine a roster of this:

Hamilton, CF
Bruce, RF
Phillips, 2B
Dunn, LF
EE, 3B
Votto, 1B
Gonzalez, SS
Ross, C

YOUNG Core, especially 1-6. You'll need a replacement for Gonzalez when his contract is up, and a young catcher (I don't know, maybe someone we drafted in the first round this year) to develop into your Franchise Catcher would be nice, but this lineup would be JUST FINE with only one guy making over $10M for the next 5 years or so.

Would leave A LOT of $$ to invest in the pitching staff.

We CAN afford to build around Dunn. He's still young and has PLENTY of potential to improve.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[nate]

And, improbus, that is the bottom line. Can the Reds afford to tie up 1/5 of their team payroll in one player who is not a frontline starting pitcher or a triple crown threat?

If they trade him, the question becomes how much of his production can they replace and at what cost? And, how much can they improve the defense and pitching to offset that loss in offensive production? They could lose as much as .5 run in production per game. Can they improve team ERA by 1 run a game? That would be a net gain of .5 runs per game. Those are the questions that need to be answered when it comes to trading Dunn.

I don't think its even _only_ 1/5ths for a "true" triple crown threat. Something like that, if it ever comes along, would probably cost $25mm and the Reds are simply not tall enough to ride that ride.

[improbus]

You'd better get a better sample size and statistics for THIS YEAR, since ALL of these guys make ~33%+ more than Adamn Dunn THIS YEAR, with the exception of Hafner. AND, many of these guys don't play LF.

Also, stating that ONE of these guys is a 145RBI guy (Ortiz) and ONE of these guys is a Gold Glove OF-er helps your cause. Not ALL of these guys are Gold-Glove, Batting Champ, 45 HR/150 RBI guys. They all have their flaws - and like I said currently make 33%+ more than Dunn



I do understand that Dunn is young, but his numbers haven't changed much at all over the last few years, (and his OBP, the thing that everyone loves about Dunn, has dropped every year, from .400 on '02 to .358 this year). He consistently hovers around the 100 rbi mark, which is good, but in todays game, not outstanding.
Also, I do understand that many of those contracts were signed in the past few years, and that teams are continuously signing new, overvalued, dumb contracts (See: Gary Matthews Jr., J.D. Drew, etc...) But that seems all the more reason to avoid Dunn. He could get upwards of 16 million if things keep up the way they have.

Also, about the players I mentioned above: I do understand that they are older, but players are more productive in their later years than guys used to be, so I really don't think that is as big a deal as people make it out to be. Also, I think the days of a guys position dictating his offensive production are coming to a close. See: A-Rod, B. Phillips, Joe Mauer, etc...

In the end, its all about value. The Reds have a limited payroll, and they need pitchers. To pump 1/5 of your budget into one bat is a bad idea. When you are a small market club and have one of the worst records in baseball and 3 guys make up 1/2 of your budget (Milton, Griff, and Dunn) things need to change.

Finally, you mentioned this possible lineup:
Hamilton, CF
Bruce, RF
Phillips, 2B
Dunn, LF
EE, 3B
Votto, 1B
Gonzalez, SS
Ross, C

I agree that Ross and Gonzo aren't the answer at those positions long term, which probably means that they will need FA's, especially at SS. Also, Phillips is arbitration eligible in '08 and will get a ton of $.

[BLEEDS]

I do understand that Dunn is young, but his numbers haven't changed much at all over the last few years,

Also, about the players I mentioned above: I do understand that they are older, but players are more productive in their later years than guys used to be, so I really don't think that is as big a deal as people make it out to be.

Notice anything inconsistent about those two paragraphs?!?




In the end, its all about value. The Reds have a limited payroll, and they need pitchers. To pump 1/5 of your budget into one bat is a bad idea. When you are a small marekt club and have one of the worst records in baseball and 3 guys make up 1/2 of your budget (Milton, Griff, and Dunn) things need to change.

Things will change - Milton is off the books next year. Griffey's contract is up after 2008 (I think there's an option year for 2009). He'll be replaced by Bruce at some point, MUCH MUCH cheaper.

THEN, the Bottom Line becomes can you get a Power OF-er, with 40/100 and .900 OPS in LF, for $13M or less? The answer is a Resounding NO!!

You've already got $10M to spend on pitching in 2008 from Milton's contract - more if you dump Lohse. Spend that $15M on ONE Great SP or get a $5M Closer and spend $10M on a #3 SP.
You're also dumping Conine and Hatteberg and replacing with Votto, there's another $3.5M saved

Then when Griffey comes off the books - probably in 2009 - you've got another $10-15M or so.

You can buy a HECK of a lot of Pitching the next couple years with $10-15M+ per season in FA.
What you WON'T be able to do is buy a 40/100 .400/.500/.900 Power LF-er.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[improbus]

Notice anything inconsistent about those two paragraphs?!?


What I meant by "players are productive longer" was that they are able to maintain quality numbers into their older years, not that they necessarily get better. Also, I wish people would stop saying Dunn is a .400 OBP guy. He was in 2002, but is more like a .360 guy now.

[Degenerate39]

I'll never understand the big deal about OBP, SLG, and OPS.

[nate]

I do understand that Dunn is young, but his numbers haven't changed much at all over the last few years, (and his OBP, the thing that everyone loves about Dunn, has dropped every year, from .400 on '02 to .358 this year). He consistently hovers around the 100 rbi mark, which is good, but in todays game, not outstanding.

But his average and slugging are up vs. his career numbers this year:

2007: .256/.358/.546
Career: .246/.377/.516


Also, I do understand that many of those contracts were signed in the past few years, and that teams are continuously signing new, overvalued, dumb contracts (See: Gary Matthews Jr., J.D. Drew, etc...) But that seems all the more reason to avoid Dunn. He could get upwards of 16 million if things keep up the way they have.

So $13mm is a deal! And if that's the case, it makes him a much more attractive trade piece.

Also, about the players I mentioned above: I do understand that they are older, but players are more productive in their later years than guys used to be,

Well, the guys you picked are but that's because they're some of the best players out there. We could also put together a list of guys who didn't get better like Bob Hamelin, Willie Greene, Erubiel Durzao et al.


so I really don't think that is as big a deal as people make it out to be. Also, I think the days of a guys position dictating his offensive production are coming to a close. See: A-Rod, B. Phillips, Joe Mauer, etc...

I don't think that's really ever been the case.


In the end, its all about value. The Reds have a limited payroll, and they need pitchers. To pump 1/5 of your budget into one bat is a bad idea. When you are a small market club and have one of the worst records in baseball and 3 guys make up 1/2 of your budget (Milton, Griff, and Dunn) things need to change.

This season, Dunn is responsible for about 14% of all the RBIs and he doesn't miss too many games. This year, he's making $7.5mm. This year, he's a deal. Next year, less of a deal, but compared to the, each of whom would command much more money, he'll still be a deal.

[BLEEDS]

What I meant by "players are productive longer" was that they are able to maintain quality numbers into their older years, not that they necessarily get better. Also, I wish people would stop saying Dunn is a .400 OBP guy. He was in 2002, but is more like a .360 guy now.

His career average is .377

He's also 10 points over his career BA, 30 pts over his career slugging, and 10 pts over his career OPS, you want to beat him up for that too?

When your career OPS is nearly .900, you shouldn't really worry about the minor details... there's ALMOST one guy with an OPS over .900 for each Major League team. We should get rid of BOTH of ours apparently...

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[BLEEDS]

I'll never understand the big deal about OBP, SLG, and OPS.


well, other than having a DIRECT correlation to how much production you bring to an offense, I guess they don't have TOO much meaning...

Getting on Base, and getting lots of bases with your hits. Yeah, that's overrated...

You can excuse yourself from the Big Boy table now...

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[improbus]

Here are the contracts of the guys I listed above, sorry if the post is long

Vlad: Signed five-year, $70 million contract w/2009 option. 2007: $13.5 million, 2008: $14.5 million, 2009: $15 million club option w/$3 million buyout, 2010: Free Agent

Papi: Signed four-year, $52 million extension w/2011 option. 2007: $12.5 million, 2008: $12.5 million, 2009: $12.5 million, 2010: $12.5 million, 2011: $12.5 million club option, 2012: Free Agent

Mags: Signed five-year, $75 million contract w/2009 & '10 options. 2007: $12 million, 2008: $15 million, 2009: $18 million, 2010: $15 million club option w/$3 million buyout, 2011: $15 million club option (both option years guaranteed w/135 starts or 540 PA in '09 or 270 starts or 1,080 PA between '08 and '09, 2010 option increases to $18 million under those circumstances)

Tejada: Signed six-year, $72 million contract. 2007: $12 million, 2008: $13 million, 2009: $13 million, 2010: Free Agent

Matsui: Signed four-year, $52 million contract w/NTC. 2007: $13 million, 2008: $13 million, 2009: $13 million, 2010: Free Agent

Beltran: Signed seven-year, $119 million contract w/NTC. 2007: $14 million, 2008: $18.5 million, 2009: $18.5 million, 2010: $18.5 million, 2011: $18.5 million, 2012: Free Agent

D.Lee: Signed five-year, $65 million contact w/NTC. 2007: $13 million, 2008: $13 million, 2009: $13 million, 2010: $13 million, 2011: Free Agent

C. Lee: Signed six-year, $100 million contract (NTC through 2010). 2007: $11 million, 2008: $12 million, 2009: $18.5 million, 2010: $18.5 million, 2011: $18.5 million, 2012: $18.5 million, 2013: Free agent

C. Jones: Signed three-year, $37 million contract w/2009 option. 2007: $11 million, 2008: $11 million, 2009: $8 million-$11 million club option (vests w/450 PA in 2008), 2010: Free Agent

Pujols: Signed seven-year, $100 million contract w/2011 option. 2007: $15 million, 2008: $16 million, 2009: $16 million, 2010: $16 million, 2011: $16 million team option w/$5 million buyout, 2012: Free Agent

A. Jones: six-year, $75 million contract. 2007: $13.5 million, 2008: Free Agent

A. Dunn: Signed two-year, $18 million contract w/2008 option. 2007: $10.5 million, 2008: $13 million club option w/$500,000 buyout (voidable by player if traded), 2009: Free Agent

T. Hafner: Hafner's salary this year was increased by $2.25 million to $6.3 million, and $3 million was added to raise his 2008 salary to $8.05 million. He will receive $11.5 million in each of the 2009 and 2010 seasons, and $13 million apiece in 2011 and 2012. Also, the Indians will hold a $13 million option with a $2.75 million buyout on Travis Hafner for 2013.

So, Andruw Jones will be a FA this fall. Dunn next fall, and most of the other guys after that. So, the way I see it, if we sign Dunn at $13 million, he will be a bargain in 2011 (when he's 31).

And, if you look at this years stats, this list (not including Dunn) has:
-three of the top ten batters: Mags .358, C. Jones 335, D. Lee .335
-three of the top ten rbi guys: Vlad .78, Mags 75, Carlos Lee 73
-five of the top ten obp guys: Ortiz .439, Mag .437, Chipper .424, D. Lee .420, amd Vlad .414
-finally, aside from Andruw Jones, a strikeout machine, none of them strikeout that much. D. Lee is the second highest behind Andruw in 48th overall w/ 65 k's, and only Beltran and Ortiz are in the top 100. I know that that is partially because of injuries (w/ Tejada and Matsui), but it still astounding.

[BLEEDS]

Mags is having a RIDICULOUS Anamoly of a year. He's good, but not that good.

I'd take Dunn over Matsui, Ordonez (at his 2008 salary) and Carlos Lee (at 18.5M). That's a good comparison seeing how they are all non-CF-ers.

Boston is LUCKY they got Ortiz in that deal, he's WAY underpaid. The Cubs deal for D. Lee looks pretty good too.

SO, at least you agree that Dunn at $13M is a bargain. 5 yr $75M would be the bottom of the ladder in the bidding for his FA services.

He MIGHT take less to play here, but with the moron fans talking all the trash, I'm not sure he'd do it now.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[nate]

well, other than having a DIRECT correlation to how much production you bring to an offense, I guess they don't have TOO much meaning...

Getting on Base, and getting lots of bases with your hits. Yeah, that's overrated...

You can excuse yourself from the Big Boy table now...

PEACE

-BLEEDS

I'm very much in agreement with a lot of what you think about the Reds and baseball but there's no need to be a jackass about it.

PEACE

[improbus]

SO, at least you agree that Dunn at $13M is a bargain. 5 yr $75M would be the bottom of the ladder in the bidding for his FA services.

I'm not too sure that 13 million is a bargain, but players who hit HR's and have high OPS's get more than they sometimes deserve, so in that sense, I guess he would be a bargain in 2011.
Here's what will happen in the end. The Reds won't trade him because he will be a rent-a-player, and will pick up his option next year at $13. Then in 2009 he signs with someone like the Dodgers, Giants, or San Diego who will pay him 16-17 million. If J.D. Drew gets 14 this year, Dunn could get 16 in '09, which definitely puts him out of Cincy's range..

[BLEEDS]

$13M for Dunn next year IS a bargain, compared to the rest of MLB, and especially for top 5/10 LF power-hitters. We'd be smart to sign him long-term at a "Discount" rate, and leave out the NTC.

By the Way, seems Baseball America has our projected 2010 lineup as:
PROJECTED 2010
LINEUP
Catcher Miguel Perez
First Base Joey Votto
Second Base Brandon Phillips
Third Base Edwin Encarnacion
Shortstop Milton Loo
Left Field Adam Dunn
Center Field Drew Stubbs
Right Field Jay Bruce
No. 1 Starter Homer Bailey
No. 2 Starter Aaron Harang
No. 3 Starter Bronson Arroyo
No. 4 Starter Johnny Cueto
No. 5 Starter Travis Wood
Closer Sean Watson

Not too shabby, and at least they are smart enough to project Dunn as the "veteran" of that lineup.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[Degenerate39]

well, other than having a DIRECT correlation to how much production you bring to an offense, I guess they don't have TOO much meaning...

Getting on Base, and getting lots of bases with your hits. Yeah, that's overrated...

You can excuse yourself from the Big Boy table now...

PEACE

-BLEEDS

:laugh::laugh::laugh:

I personally don't look at OBP, Slugging, and what not depending on the player. If he's a power hitter I just look at home run and RBI totals. If he's a singles hitter I look at hits and average. That's just my way of looking at things.

[BLEEDS]

:laugh::laugh::laugh:

I personally don't look at OBP, Slugging, and what not depending on the player. If he's a power hitter I just look at home run and RBI totals. If he's a singles hitter I look at hits and average. That's just my way of looking at things.

Well, you just said you didn't see the "Big Deal" with OBP and SLUGGING, I tried to fill you in.

There's more to Power Hitting than HR's and RBI's. Getting on-base and Total Bases (Slugging) are important factors.

some people think RBIs' are overrated. Just sayin.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[AmarilloRed]

I posted that the Reds should give him a 2-3 year contract at 12-13 million a year; so I will explain my reasons. First, Adam Dunn is a huge part of the Reds offense. You trade him and try to replace him with Hopper or Freel, and there will be a huge drop in production with th Reds. They could lose 1-3 runs a game out of their offense.I also don't see a lot of help coming up from the minor league system. Bruce could replace his production, but he is probably a couple of years away. Joey Votto has some time in left field, but I hear he is worse in left field than Dunn.I don't like the fact that we need to pick up Dunn's option, and sign him to an extension; I just don't see a viable alternative at this point. If we could get a Type A outfield prospect in a trade, I could support trading Dunn. Right now, very few teams are willing to trade their top prospects.

[Degenerate39]

Well, you just said you didn't see the "Big Deal" with OBP and SLUGGING, I tried to fill you in.

There's more to Power Hitting than HR's and RBI's. Getting on-base and Total Bases (Slugging) are important factors.

some people think RBIs' are overrated. Just sayin.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

I said if they're a power hitter I look at home runs and RBIs. Also I know what OBP, SLG, OPS are so you don't have to feel me in.

[Degenerate39]

I posted that the Reds should give him a 2-3 year contract at 12-13 million a year; so I will explain my reasons. First, Adam Dunn is a huge part of the Reds offense. You trade him and try to replace him with Hopper or Freel, and there will be a huge drop in production with th Reds. They could lose 1-3 runs a game out of their offense.I also don't see a lot of help coming up from the minor league system. Bruce could replace his production, but he is probably a couple of years away. Joey Votto has some time in left field, but I hear he is worse in left field than Dunn.

I agree with this. There is no one that can replace Dunn's production right now. Bruce is really a Double A guy so next year I see him spending time in Double A and maybe a Triple A call up after the All-Star Break. And say Griffey gets hurt again next year (Knock on wood that he doesn't) then who is going to hold the offense together? Norris? I don't think so. I'm against Votto playing left field for his first year or two in the majors. I say keep him at first base for a while till he's comfortable.

[BLEEDS]

I said if they're a power hitter I look at home runs and RBIs. Also I know what OBP, SLG, OPS are so you don't have to feel me in.

Funny. I thought your exact quote was "I'll never understand the big deal about OBP, SLG, and OPS".

Whatever dude, school's out, and Junior High doesn't start for another 6-8 weeks, you got a lot of time on your hands I understand. Maybe you should do some research on the "Big Deal" that is OBP and SLG.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[AtomicDumpling]

You improve your team by getting rid of the poor players and replacing them with someone better. You don't get better by getting rid of your good players. Dunn is definitely one of the Reds best players, so it would not be smart to dump him.

What message would it send to potential free agents if we get rid of Dunn? It would tell them the Reds aren't willing to pay them a fair wage for their production. If you were a good player would you want to come to a team that blames their woes on one of their best players?

Adam Dunn is in the prime of his career. He is a very productive hitter. He is the only homegrown player the Reds have. He is not the source of the Reds suckitude.

[BLEEDS]

You improve your team by getting rid of the poor players and replacing them with someone better. You don't get better by getting rid of your good players. Dunn is definitely one of the Reds best players, so it would not be smart to dump him.

What message would it send to potential free agents if we get rid of Dunn? It would tell them the Reds aren't willing to pay them a fair wage for their production. If you were a good player would you want to come to a team that blames their woes on one of their best players?

Adam Dunn is in the prime of his career. He is a very productive hitter. He is the only homegrown player the Reds have. He is not the source of the Reds suckitude.

Your Logic has no place here sir.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[improbus]

I posted that the Reds should give him a 2-3 year contract at 12-13 million a year; so I will explain my reasons. First, Adam Dunn is a huge part of the Reds offense. You trade him and try to replace him with Hopper or Freel, and there will be a huge drop in production with th Reds. They could lose 1-3 runs a game out of their offense.I also don't see a lot of help coming up from the minor league system. Bruce could replace his production, but he is probably a couple of years away. Joey Votto has some time in left field, but I hear he is worse in left field than Dunn.I don't like the fact that we need to pick up Dunn's option, and sign him to an extension; I just don't see a viable alternative at this point. If we could get a Type A outfield prospect in a trade, I could support trading Dunn. Right now, very few teams are willing to trade their top prospects.
Exactly right! Well said Amarillo.

I know that I've spent two weeks bashing Dunn in a number of threads. I don't hate the guy. But, I do hate the idea of hitching my wagon to a one trick pony (even if it is a 460 foot, scoreboard breaking trick!)

[Carolina Red]

Dunn's homers are a lot of fun to watch but his strikeouts and misplays in left field aren't. There seem to be a lot more of the latter.

I think Adam Dunn is much more suited to play in the AL where he can DH. If not then he should be considered for 1st base. He has some experience over there with the Reds.

[Degenerate39]

:laugh::laugh::laugh:

I personally don't look at OBP, Slugging, and what not depending on the player. If he's a power hitter I just look at home run and RBI totals. If he's a singles hitter I look at hits and average. That's just my way of looking at things.


Funny. I thought your exact quote was "I'll never understand the big deal about OBP, SLG, and OPS".

Whatever dude, school's out, and Junior High doesn't start for another 6-8 weeks, you got a lot of time on your hands I understand. Maybe you should do some research on the "Big Deal" that is OBP and SLG.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

First of all it's my personal opinion. I'm not a big numbers guy I just like the more common stats like average, hits, doubles, homers, etc.

FYI, I'm a senior in high school so thanks for the info about junior high.

[SMcGavin]

Ah, now we're getting closer.

Freel/Hopper replace some part of Dunn's production AND upgrade the defense tremendously AND you have that $13 million to spend. Would $13 mill spent on quality bullpen arms and perhaps an upgraded bench be enough to offset the production loss?

I argue yes.

We have a good enough lineup to score runs. That's been proven. Methinks we need to address the other side of the equation: spend that money on preventing runs.

That doesn't mean just blowing it on a dumb signing. Clearly any one pushing for a Dunn trade (as I am) knows that this move only makes sense if you can back it up with some good signings. And I'm sure we'll debate those moves ad nauseum.

But I'd rather risk that than field pretty much the exact same squad in 2008 and expect that we'd be any better in the standings.

First of all, thank you for making a reasonable argument for trading Dunn that didn't involve the word strikeouts.

But - It is all well and good to say we will make some smart signings and fix the bullpen/bench... but is that really possible with $13M? Honestly, who in last season's free agency crop could be considered a solid bargain signing? The only guy this offseason I really want is Linebrink and he would take a good chunk of the $13M to get. I think the free agency market is going to be much worse than most people think.

I think our second point of disagreement is how much the defensive upgrade in LF will help. Sure Freel or Hopper is better out there but they come nowhere near making up the 250 points of OPS difference between them and Dunn.

I have to agree with Amarillo on the plan of attack with Adam Dunn - I'd try to get him locked up at something like 3 years/$40M.

[Degenerate39]

I'd like to venture a question to everyone.

Say we do trade Dunn at the deadline. We get a solid reliever and a decent pitching prospect. Junior Griffey goes down with an injury and is out for the rest of the season (I hope to God he stays healthy though). Where is the offense going to come from? We just lost the two biggest hitters on the club in one fell swoop. Josh Hamilton hasn't stayed healthy the whole year so you really can't count on him to provide solid numbers. Brandon Phillips would be really the only one you could count on. I am not liking this situation.

[improbus]

I'd like to venture a question to everyone.

Say we do trade Dunn at the deadline. We get a solid reliever and a decent pitching prospect. Junior Griffey goes down with an injury and is out for the rest of the season (I hope to God he stays healthy though). Where is the offense going to come from? We just lost the two biggest hitters on the club in one fell swoop. Josh Hamilton hasn't stayed healthy the whole year so you really can't count on him to provide solid numbers. Brandon Phillips would be really the only one you could count on. I am not liking this situation.

If the Reds trade Dunn, it doesn't matter where the production comes from because they have obviously entered rebuilding mode, and we start targeting 2009-2010.

Also, if they trade Dunn they need to trade Griffey to a contender if only so he has a chance to play for a winner. He's only won one playoff series in his entire career, and I don't think he'll ever get to one here, let alone win one. I would love to see Junior hit 600 here, but if we go into full rebuilding mode I don't want to see us hold onto him to put some people in the seats. That's completely contrary to the idea of rebuilding, and unfair to Junior.

[AmarilloRed]

Let's all consider the possibility the Reds don't trade Adam Dunn. I don't think Wayne will get the offer for him he wants. If he makes it past the trading deadline, I would say there is a 80% chance the Reds will pick up Dunn's option. They may still seek to trade him up to next year's deadline; but he can pick 10 teams he wants to be traded to. Under this scenario, there will be a lot of pressure on Krivsky or any GM who follows him to sign him to a short extension. If other teams know Krivsky has to trade Dunn, there is very little possibility(I hope) that our GM will make a bad trade over no trade.

[kaldaniels]

With all this talk about Jocketty...if it is true...I'd say there is no way Bob C. lets Wayne play with his big chips.