Another reason to trade/not re-sign Dunn

[The Snow Chief]

If the Reds' future is Hamilton in CF, Bruce in RF, and Votto at 1B (which I think it is), then they desparately need a right handed bat at a power position (LF). Unless you want to trade Hamilton, Bruce, or Votto (I don't), then I think you let Dunn move on. You must have some right handed power in the line-up or those late inning situational lefties will could give us fits. (And no, I don't think Austin Kearns was the answer).

If you let Dunn walk, combined with the money from Milton's contract, you have $22M with which to sign a #3-4 starter, closer, and right handed bat to play LF. The right handed bat has to be an improvement defensively. Plus, you pick up prospects if it is a trade or top 50 draft picks if FA.

The right handed bat will be cheaper and not put up the offensive stats Dunn does, but the move will offset in the Reds favor by improving defensively, cutting down on strikeouts, freeing up salary for pitching, and increasing the amount of young talent in the farm system.

[Degenerate39]

It's going to be a while before Bruce is even up in the bigs.

[mole44]

YES, lets trade the known for the unknown, That always seems to work out well.

[AmarilloRed]

A number of people have posted that we need a right-handed power bat in the lineup; so let's objectively consider the idea.I am not opposed to the idea; but it makes no sense to dump Dunn unless you have someone to replace his production. If we get a prospect in a trade your idea has some merit; any other comparable righthanded power bat would probably make the same or more likely even more money than Adam Dunn.I have also heard Milton's money is scheduled to go to existing player's pay raises next year.In summary, if we can get a righthanded outfielder with power, make good contact, and play good defense, trade Adam Dunn. It seems a tall order to get a prospect like that though.

[BLEEDS]

If the Reds' future is Hamilton in CF, Bruce in RF, and Votto at 1B (which I think it is), then they desparately need a right handed bat at a power position (LF). Unless you want to trade Hamilton, Bruce, or Votto (I don't), then I think you let Dunn move on. You must have some right handed power in the line-up or those late inning situational lefties will could give us fits.

It's thinking like that that got Jerry Narron FIRED!!

How many games did we lose games in the late innings due to "Match-ups" - hell we pinch-hit for Josh Hamilton with Juan Castro!! VERSUS the 18 Blown Saves our Bullpen had?!?!?

PEACE

[JLB5]

Phillips and Edwin should be solid, RH bats which give stability to the order. I would much rather add a batter of the Cory Hart mold. High OBP and speed. As Hamilton grows, he will be another middle of the order LH bat. If Votto and Bruce develop, I'd much rather have a leadoff bat who can cover CF, you can bookend him with Hamilton and Bruce, once Griffey move on/retires. Solves the lack of a lead off and improves the D. Bring in that type of player and improve the pitching staff, you won't miss Dunn one bit.

[The Snow Chief]

It's thinking like that that got Jerry Narron FIRED!!

How many games did we lose games in the late innings due to "Match-ups" - hell we pinch-hit for Josh Hamilton with Juan Castro!! VERSUS the 18 Blown Saves our Bullpen had?!?!?

PEACE

It's not only late innings. Lefty starters would have a field day. I'm not advocating Castro for Hamilton. I'm saying move one of the power left handers (one who is making high salary) and replace it with a RH bat with less numbers, more defense, and less salary. Spend the difference on improving the bullpen. That has nothing to do with Narron ball - which is all about situational substitutions. This is an every day lineup thing.

[BLEEDS]

It's not only late innings. Lefty starters would have a field day. I'm not advocating Castro for Hamilton. I'm saying move one of the power left handers (one who is making high salary) and replace it with a RH bat with less numbers, more defense, and less salary. Spend the difference on improving the bullpen. That has nothing to do with Narron ball - which is all about situational substitutions. This is an every day lineup thing.

You said "situational lefties". If by "situation" you meant the 1st 6 innings when a lefty STARTS against us, then okay, otherwise you're using the wrong terminology.

I'll go with the guy above who said Phillips and EE should be the middle of the lineup RH bats to even things out. After that, I'd say unless a guy TOTALLY owns one of our starters, your everyday starters should be able to handle most lefties. OR this is a day for the BENCH RH OF-er to play. We don't face lefties enough to base how we shape our EveryDay lineup around.

Just another excuse to dump Dunn IMO.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[The Snow Chief]

You said "situational lefties". If by "situation" you meant the 1st 6 innings when a lefty STARTS against us, then okay, otherwise you're using the wrong terminology.

I'll go with the guy above who said Phillips and EE should be the middle of the lineup RH bats to even things out. After that, I'd say unless a guy TOTALLY owns one of our starters, your everyday starters should be able to handle most lefties. OR this is a day for the BENCH RH OF-er to play. We don't face lefties enough to base how we shape our EveryDay lineup around.

Just another excuse to dump Dunn IMO.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Well, in the initial post, I did say situational lefties. However, in the post you quoted, I expanded on that to address your point and said that the concern also applies to every day lefty starters.

I disagree that Phillips and EE can be our lone RH power weapons in the starting lineup. Maybe I am wrong, but I can't remember a good MLB team taking the field with all four players from the traditional four power positions (3 outfielders and 1B) hitting from the left side. That is a concern for me.

Given that concern and my desire to keep the other 3 lefties because they will be much cheaper relative to their production, I would advocate taking Dunn's salary and spending part of it on a good defensive RH left fielder that will put of fewer numbers than Dunn and spend the rest of it on the bullpen. While there will be a slugging drop off from Dunn and his replacement, I think it can be more than offset by (1) the increased power we will get at 1B with Votto; (2) better LF defense; (3) a better bullpen; and (4) a better RH/LH power balance in the lineup; (5) the prospects we get from Dunn leaving, either through a trade or FA draft picks.

[BLEEDS]

Well, in the initial post, I did say situational lefties. However, in the post you quoted, I expanded on that to address your point and said that the concern also applies to every day lefty starters.

I disagree that Phillips and EE can be our lone RH power weapons in the starting lineup. Maybe I am wrong, but I can't remember a good MLB team taking the field with all four players from the traditional four power positions (3 outfielders and 1B) hitting from the left side. That is a concern for me.

Given that concern and my desire to keep the other 3 lefties because they will be much cheaper relative to their production, I would advocate taking Dunn's salary and spending part of it on a good defensive RH left fielder that will put of fewer numbers than Dunn and spend the rest of it on the bullpen. While there will be a slugging drop off from Dunn and his replacement, I think it can be more than offset by (1) the increased power we will get at 1B with Votto; (2) better LF defense; (3) a better bullpen; and (4) a better RH/LH power balance in the lineup; (5) the prospects we get from Dunn leaving, either through a trade or FA draft picks.

I'll buy that. Great Post! At least you explain, in detail, your reasoning(s).

I agree that Votto should help us gain increased power at 1B.
If we can get a RH LF-er who hits say 20-25 - might increase to 30/35 in GABP - and is better defensively, then maybe we don't lose much.

However, when you consider that Griffey only has a few years left, and his heir apparent Bruce is currently only in AA, it's a stretch to think we won't lose something in that mix. I guess there is also the possibility that Griffey stays on a few more years and even signs an extension to retire a Red. ALTHOUGH I think that unless the Reds are COMPETING for not only a NL Central Pennant, but also have a Legit shot to make it to the WS, he's going to opt to go to a Real Contender to get his shot before retiring.

All told, I can see us increasing our Overall Power, by GRADUALLY moving out some players and moving others in. I just don't think we want to get rid of them too soon. We actually DO have a good offensive CORE, we just need another LEGIT #3/#4 SP and a SOLID Set-Up (Read: 8th innning) and Closer. That's another reason I'm not so Gung-Ho to trade Weathers, the ONLY consistent bullpen arm we have right now. $2.5M per for his services seems like a Bargain right now. No reason we can't keep him for a year (or longer?) while all of these "Potential" Young Bullpen arms mature and develop - and maybe Bray, Eddie and a few others actually get in the lineup.

I just want to see a PLAN for GETTING BETTER through trades, rather than simply trading away maybe the ONLY thing we do well, which is our Offense.

Like I said, at least you have one layed out, so I'll give you your props.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[AmarilloRed]

We have right handed outfielders already in Hopper and Freel. However, if you want a right handed outfielder with both power and good defense,the only way it will be economic is if you get a prospect. We can make a trade, but any outfielder like you want will cost a lot of money, maybe more than Dunn. The odds we can convince a team to give up a prospect like you want are pretty high. I hope we can get a prospect like you want in a trade for Dunn; I just don't see it happening.

[BLEEDS]

We have right handed outfielders already in Hopper and Freel. However, if you want a right handed outfielder with both power and good defense,the only way it will be economic is if you get a prospect. We can make a trade, but any outfielder like you want will cost a lot of money, maybe more than Dunn. The odds we can convince a team to give up a prospect like you want are pretty high. I hope we can get a prospect like you want in a trade for Dunn; I just don't see it happening.

I agree. So, we MAYBE can trade Dunn for a cheap bullpen arm, and MAYBE a PROSPECT SP.

Then, we save the $13M we would have payed Dunn - more like the $10M we have on the Books this year - and spend MIN $10M to sign a LESS POWERFUL LF-er with better BA and Defense.
MAYBE an Eric Byrnes, best case?
Aaron Rowand?
Milton Bradley?

best case, you lose 50 pts of SLG and 100 pts of OPS.

Is that worth a savings of $3-5M Max? Some might say yes.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[Degenerate39]

What if they trade Dunn and next year Griffey is hurt again? Where is the offense going to come from? The left fielder they signed isn't going to homer 40 times and drive in 100 RBIs thats for sure.

[BLEEDS]

Yahoo's ears must have been burning:

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=jp-freeagents071507.doc&prov=yhoo&type=lgns

Top Free Agents, 2008:



5) Adam Dunn, LF/1B, Cincinnati, 28: When Dunn – on this list because he's a free agent if he gets traded, and the Reds would benefit from what he could bring in return – reaches 40 home runs, he will become the eighth player to have four consecutive 40-home seasons in his 20s. The others: Ralph Kiner, Duke Snider, Ernie Banks, Harmon Killebrew, Ken Griffey Jr., Alex Rodriguez and Albert Pujols. Seven Hall of Famers. Not to say Dunn will join them in Cooperstown. Just that his power is rare and more than makes up for his contact and defensive deficiencies.

Projected contract: five years, $75 million


11) Eric Byrnes, OF, Arizona, 31: Byrnes recently said he'd give the Diamondbacks a hometown discount. Problem is, Arizona is so loaded with outfield prospects, it would be bad business to lock him up to the long-term deal he deserves and will receive on the open market. A left fielder who can play center, Byrnes should set career highs this season in home runs, RBIs, runs and walks, and a 30-30 year would cement his spot among this winter's elite.

Projected contract: five years, $55 million

12) Aaron Rowand, CF, Philadelphia, 30: His face fixed following the most amazing catches in years, Rowand has turned into an excellent run producer in the Phillies' loaded lineup. The youngest of the top outfielders, he deserves to get paid, though teams might be scared off slightly by his breakneck play.

Projected contract: four years, $40 million

I'd also look at the following:

one of these two:
17) Francisco Cordero, RP, Milwaukee, 32: Unhittable earlier this season, Cordero has leveled off into simply one of the best closers around. Enough general managers will be wary of Cordero's implosion with Texas that the market will thin out. But reliable closers carry big price tags, and Cordero is primed to cash in one final time.

Projected contract: four years, $36 million

18) Scott Linebrink, RP, San Diego, 31: After five seasons stuck behind Trevor Hoffman, one of the best setup men will finally get his chance to close – should he so desire. Linebrink could pull a Justin Speier, signing with a team that already has an established closer, but with so many elite teams in the market for end-of-game help, he's got options.

Projected contract: four years, $28 million

Is a Closer worth $7 or $9M per year? In Cincinnati - HECK YEAH!!!

one of these two:
10) Jason Jennings, SP, Houston, 28: This year's Gil Meche, only without nearly the stuff but with the advantage of an even thinner starting-pitching class. In 1,006 career innings, Jennings has yielded 1,103 hits, walked 445 and struck out just 672. But he's entering his prime, everyone needs pitching and this is the winter the price of a No. 3 starter jumps to $12 million a year.

GROUND BALL PITCHER ALERT!!!!
We're talking like 6th best in the MLB in Ground-Out/Fly-Out ratio. Might heed him well in GABP. $12M is a BARGAIN for this guy.

22) Freddy Garcia, SP, Philadelphia, 32: Seeing as the Phillies gave Adam Eaton more than $24 million over three years despite his injury woes, and the Cardinals are paying Mark Mulder $13 million as he comes off shoulder surgery, it's easy to envision Garcia – currently out with a bum shoulder – getting something in between.

Cheaper alternative, Career 4.0 ERA, 1.30 WHIP - IN THE AMERICAN LEAGUE!!

or, if you want to go BIG TIME:

2) Carlos Zambrano, SP, Chicago Cubs, 26:
Projected contract: seven years, $140 million

Yeah - I know I'm dreaming, but IFF you are serious about taking a run in the NL Central, you pick this guy up - Zambrano, Harang, Arroyo, Bailey, My Aunt's Cat - become the Top SP lineup in the NL, and maybe the MLB. Dude is 26. In 3 years $20M will look like a Bargain.

Griffey would most likely have to be let go after 2008, but you make a SERIOUS WS run with this lineup:

Hamilton/Freel, CF - <$2.8M total salary

Griffey, RF - $6.5M (?) (some deferred money from his $12.5M salaries)
Phillips, 2B - $407K
Dunn, LF - $15M
EE, 3B - $407K
Votto, 1B - $380K (minimum?)
Gonzo, SS - $3.5M
Ross, C - $1.6M

SP:
Zambrano - $20M
Harang - $6.75M
Arroyo - $3.95M
Bailey - $500K (?)
Aunt's Cat - $500K

Pen:
Closer* - $7M
Weathers - $2.5M
Easy Eddie - $500K
5 guys making minimum - $407K

Bench:
Valentin, C - $1.5M
Keppinger, IF - $380K
Hopper, OF - $380K
Lopez, SS - $380K
Freel/Hamilton

That's less than $75M - on the ACTIVE roster.
Sure we've got some money on other players off the roster (LaRue, Chormeal, etc), and Griffey's Deferred money, etc... but you can't tell me this team can't WIN the NL Central and contend for the Pennant?!?!

Your only problem is - WHO bats second?!?!

in 2009, you replace Griffey's salary with Jay Bruce - if he's ready - and it offsets Harang and Arroyo's Salary increases to $11M and $9.5M respectively - about a $10M increase - and you come out pretty close, although it costs you $4M to buy out Junior.

MAYBE consider that you just made the playoffs/WS the previous year - and you're probably selling out every game - and it's okay to take on $10M - when you can probably drop Weather's $2.5 off the books, maye dump FREEL instead of Junior and save his $2.5M and you've only taken on $5M to put your roster up to $80M.

Of course, I could just be dreaming...

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[JLB5]

If you need any further proof that Lance McCallister can be prone to fits of lunacy, I heard him say yesterday that he would drive his car to Pheonix to pick up Eric Byrnes for $11 million a year, but had no use for Jason Jennings for $12 million per. Wow! Jennings isn't a top of the rotation guy, but he is a solid 3/4 starter with reasonable success pitching in hitters parks. I'd much rather have a league average pitcher at that price than a league average OF.

[ChatterRed]

I think the Aunt's Cat is underpaid.

[AtomicDumpling]

I agree with BLEEDS that Adam Dunn's salary is not a good excuse to dump him. He earns every penny of that salary and more. You don't improve your team by dumping good players just because you don't want to pay them.