7/22/07 - Reds vs. Marlins Game Thread

[Reds Fanatic]

Starting Lineups



Reds (41 - 57)
6th in NL Central
Marlins (47 - 51)
4th in NL East

Reds Starting Lineup

Name AVG HR RBI SB
1. R Freel, CF .241 3 15 15
2. J Keppinger, 3B .238 0 3 0
3. K Griffey Jr., RF .283 24 65 6
4. B Phillips, 2B .284 20 60 18
5. A Dunn, LF .258 26 64 8
6. J Conine, 1B .262 5 26 3
7. P Lopez, SS .207 0 0 0
8. D Ross, C .188 14 32 0
9. B Arroyo, P .098 1 1 0

Marlins Starting Lineup

Name AVG HR RBI SB
1. H Ramirez, SS .336 16 46 27
2. D Uggla, 2B .251 18 58 2
3. M Cabrera, 3B .331 23 69 0
4. M Jacobs, 1B .273 6 20 0
5. J Willingham, LF .256 15 62 4
6. J Hermida, RF .239 9 30 2
7. M Olivo, C .244 9 41 2
8. A Amezaga, CF .279 2 23 11
9. R Vanden Hurk, P .143 0 0 0

Starting Pitcher
Name W L ERA* WHIP K
B Arroyo 4 10 4.51 1.42 87

Starting Pitcher
Name W L ERA* WHIP K
R Vanden Hurk 3 2 7.15 1.71 38

[Big Klu]

I won't be able to watch or listen to the game today. (Prior commitment.) I will be looking forward to reading the game thread when I get home late tonight, though. Thanks in advance to whoever does the play-by-play! :thumbup:

I'm a little surprised that Hatteberg isn't starting against the righty Rick Vanden Hurk. Is something up?

[oneupper]

I won't be able to watch or listen to the game today. (Prior commitment.) I will be looking forward to reading the game thread when I get home late tonight, though. Thanks in advance to whoever does the play-by-play! :thumbup:

I'm a little surprised that Hatteberg isn't starting against the righty Rick Vanden Hurk. Is something up?

I can't help with the PBP today...I'll watch the game on TV and not on my computer.

Perhaps Hatt is packing his bags or perhaps (more likely), Mac just wants Conine to get some PT in front of a crowd that really appreciates him.

Kepp in for EE is interesting. Of course, Mac could have put EE 2nd, too.
EE has been slumping at the bat or maybe HE's involved in a trade [/conspiracy theory]
Freel is slumping, too...but he's leading off. AGAIN. I kinda wish HE were the one traded.

[indy_dave00]

Showcasing Conine vs a right hander. Well 70 homers 180 rbi's in batters 3-5 after 98 is good. The other 5 plus Bronson only 1 of them hitting over .250 . Still if this lineup doesn't score a lot vs a pitcher with a 7.15 era something is dreadfully wrong.

[Reds Fanatic]

Freel leads off with a single to right.

[mbgrayson]

Marlin's TV announcer:

"Freel doing what he does best...getting on base...."

LOL

[Reds Fanatic]

Keppinger homers to left! 2-0 Reds!

[Tom Servo]

Country Kepp!

[Reds Fanatic]

Junior walks.

[BCubb2003]

Keppinger homers to left! 2-0 Reds!

I heard that too. Then I thought, "Well if he doesn't do anything well, it could be what he does best."

But I think we're being a little too hard on him. He's probably just slumping and banged up, like he gets some times.

[mbgrayson]

Why isn't Hatte starting against a righty? Trade brewing? Let Conine have another start in his old home stadium?

[Reds Fanatic]

Phillips lines out to 3rd. 1 out.

[mbgrayson]

Junior doggin' it to third on Dunn double....

[Reds Fanatic]

Dunn doubles to right. 2nd and 3rd.

[edabbs44]

Why isn't Hatte starting against a righty? Trade brewing? Let Conine have another start in his old home stadium?

My guess is a showcase for Conine.

[Reds Fanatic]

Conine fouls out to shallow right. 2 outs.

[mbgrayson]

Why isn't Hatte starting against a righty? Trade brewing? Let Conine have another start in his old home stadium?
Per C. Trent:
"Hatteberg, by the way, has a "twinge" in his hamstring. And it's not like Conine can't hit righties."

[Reds Fanatic]

Lopez pops out to 1st. Missed chance only getting 2 runs that inning. 2-0 Reds mid 1st.

[Tom Servo]

Bronson broke Hanley Ramirez.

[Reds Fanatic]

Looks like Ramirez injured himself on the last swing.

[Reds Fanatic]

Ramirez is coming out of the game. C. Ross in to pinch hit.

[Tom Servo]

Bronson should throw that pitch against all of baseball's biggest stars to take them out of the game.

[Tom Servo]

Atleast Ross didn't get hit in the face.

[Reds Fanatic]

C. Ross is hit by the pitch.

[Reds Fanatic]

Uggla singles to left. 1st and 2nd.

[Reds Fanatic]

Cabrera grounds into a 6-3 DP. Runner on 3rd with 2 outs.

[mbgrayson]

6-3 double play. Two outs, runner on third.

[Reds Fanatic]

Jacobs flies out to center as Freel makes a diving catch. 2-0 Reds after 1.

[Reds Fanatic]

Ross doubles to the wall in left.

[Reds Fanatic]

Arroyo flies out to center. Ross goes to 3rd. 1 out.

[WVRedsFan]

That might get Ross above .200 today and keep him being the first starting catcher since Johnny Edwards to hit below.200 in 46 years (.186).

[Falls City Beer]

Van der Hurk and Jerk looks like an all or nothing type of pitcher?

[Reds Fanatic]

Freel is hit by the pitch. 1st and 3rd.

[Tom Servo]

Damn that Miguel Cabrera

[Reds Fanatic]

Keppinger hit it hard but lines into a 5-3 DP. 2-0 Reds mid 2nd. 2nd straight inning a runner at 3rd with less than 2 outs did not score.

[mbgrayson]

Marty pretty hard on Freel for bad base running. But that line drive by Kepp was stroked hard....I think he was just leaning the wrong way...

[WVRedsFan]

Keppinger hit it hard but lines into a 5-3 DP. 2-0 Reds mid 2nd. 2nd straight inning a runner at 3rd with less than 2 outs did not score.
I don't have TV yet (technical difficulties). Was Freel running on the play?

[PuffyPig]

A bit of bad luck for the Reds that inning.

First, Ross double just misses being a HR by inches.

Then, the lineout DP was smoked by Keppinger.

[Reds Fanatic]

Willingham leads off with a double.

[Reds Fanatic]

I don't have TV yet (technical difficulties). Was Freel running on the play?No he was not running but he got caught too far off the bag.

[Reds Fanatic]

Hermida walks. 1st and 2nd.

[Reds Fanatic]

Olivo strikes out looking on a pitch on the inside corner. 1 out.

[Reds Fanatic]

Amezaga grounds into a 4-6 fielder's choice as Phillips makes a behind the back throw to Lopez. 1st and 3rd with 2 outs.

[BCubb2003]

Brandon Phillips may end up reinventing second base play.

[Reds Fanatic]

Vanden Hurk strikes out swinging. 2-0 Reds after 2.

[Reds Fanatic]

Junior grounds out to 2nd on the first pitch. 1 out.

[Reds Fanatic]

Phillips lines out to 3rd. 2 ABs both with leaping catches on line drives by Cabrera.

[Reds Fanatic]

Dunn grounds out to 2nd as Uggla makes a diving stop. Reds are hitting it hard but Marlins are playing good defense today. 2-0 Reds mid 3rd.

[mbgrayson]

Vanden Hurk had a five pitch inning: Grif 1, Phillips 2, Dunn 2.

Not much patience. But two of the three were hit pretty hard.

[Reds Fanatic]

C. Ross grounds out to 3rd. 1 out.

[Reds Fanatic]

Uggla with an infield hit. Great effort by Phillips almost had him.

[Reds Fanatic]

4 pitch walk to Cabrera. 1st and 2nd.

[mbgrayson]

Migey walks.

[Reds Fanatic]

Jacobs strikes out swinging. 3 Ks for Arroyo.

[Reds Fanatic]

Willingham lines out to left. 2-0 Reds after 3.

[PuffyPig]

Vanden Hurk had a five pitch inning: Grif 1, Phillips 2, Dunn 2.

Not much patience. But two of the three were hit pretty hard.


You can't blame players for poor patience when they swing at strikes and hit them hard. Poor patience is swinging at poor pitches.

[Reds Fanatic]

Conine flies out to center. 1 out.

[Reds Fanatic]

Lopez doubles off the top of the wall in left. Just missed a home run.

[Reds Fanatic]

Intentional walk to Ross. 1st and 2nd.

[Reds Fanatic]

Arroyo attempts a sacrifice but grounds into a 3-5 fielder's choice. 2 outs. 1st and 2nd.

[mbgrayson]

Ross out at home by a mile....ouch.

[Reds Fanatic]

Freel lines a single to left. Ross is thrown out by a mile at home plate. 2-0 Reds mid 4th. Reds should have way more than 2 runs at this point.

[BCubb2003]

Ross should never run more than one base at a time.

[oneupper]

Bad managing/coaching IMO.

1) No way I bunt with Arroyo and 1 out
2) No way Ross scores on that liner to LF.

I won't talk about lineup construction...but dang.

[CTA513]

Ross should have ran over Olivo, but I guess thats not Reds baseball.

[Wheelhouse]

Ross=wimpy, wimpy, wimpy.

[Reds Fanatic]

Hermida singles to center.

[mbgrayson]

Rain delay may be coming. Need to hold onto the lead....

[Reds Fanatic]

Olivo strikes out swinging. 4 Ks for Arroyo. 1 out.

[Reds Fanatic]

Amezaga pops out to short. 2 outs.

[mbgrayson]

Grounds crew massing down 3rd base line.

[Falls City Beer]

Ross=wimpy, wimpy, wimpy.

He'll gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today.

[Reds Fanatic]

Vanden Hurk strikes out swinging. 5 Ks for Arroyo. 2-0 Reds after 4.

[Reds Fanatic]

Keppinger bloops a single to center.

[Reds Fanatic]

Junior strikes out looking. 1 out.

[Reds Fanatic]

Phillips is hit by the pitch. 1st and 2nd.

[Reds Fanatic]

Dunn strikes out looking. 2 outs.

[Reds Fanatic]

Conine pops out to short. 2-0 Reds mid 5th.

So far today:
Reds have left 7 runners on base.
Marlins have left 6 runners on base.

[Reds Fanatic]

C. Ross leads off with a walk.

[Reds Fanatic]

Uggla grounds out to Arroyo. 1 out runner on 2nd.

[Reds Fanatic]

Cabrera strikes out swinging. 6 Ks for Arroyo. 2 outs.

[Reds Fanatic]

Jacobs homers to right. Tie game 2-2.

[CTA513]

Smart walk to C. Ross.

:ughmamoru

[Reds Fanatic]

Willingham singles to right.

[Reds Fanatic]

Hermida flies out to left. 2-2 after 5.

[oneupper]

Arroyo at 93 Pitches.

Rain looming/

[Reds Fanatic]

Lopez goes to 2nd on a 2 base error by Cabrera.

[Reds Fanatic]

Ross strikes out swinging. 1 out.

[oneupper]

Thunderclaps here in Weston.

(Northwest of Dolphin stadium)

[Reds Fanatic]

Passed ball moves the runner to 3rd.

[Reds Fanatic]

I don't get that play. Arroyo bunts right in front of the plate as the runner has to stay at 3rd. 2 outs.

[oneupper]

"Safety Squeeze" Arroyo out at first. Lopez stay at 3rd.

Idiotic if you ask me.

[Reds Fanatic]

Freel out on a soft liner to the pitcher. 2-2 mid 6th. 3rd time today Reds get a runner on 3rd with less than 2 outs and they have failed to score every time.

[mbgrayson]

Again we strand a runner in scoring position.

After lead off double, Ross Ks, Arroyo bunts out, and Freel lines to pitcher.

This team is terrible again today with RISP. TERRIBLE.

[oneupper]

REDS 1 for 10 with RISP.
or 0 for 9, cause Ross isn't in scoring position unless he's rounding third, IMO.

[Reds Fanatic]

Olivo pops out to 1st on the first pitch. 1 out.

[Reds Fanatic]

Amezaga reaches on a bunt single.

[oneupper]

It's pouring here. I'd give it 5-10 min before it gets to the game.

[Reds Fanatic]

Linden pinch hitting for the pitcher.

[Reds Fanatic]

Linden grounds into a 4-6-3 DP. 2-2 after 6.

[Reds Fanatic]

Renyal Pinto in to pitch.

Keppinger with an infield hit.

[Reds Fanatic]

Junior grounds out to 1st. Keppinger goes to 2nd.

[Reds Fanatic]

With the count 3-0 they decide to intentionally walk Phillips. 1st and 2nd.

[VR]

Intentional walk to get to Dunn?

[Reds Fanatic]

Dunn strikes out swinging. 2 outs.

[Reds Fanatic]

4 pitch walk to Conine. Bases loaded.

[Reds Fanatic]

Lopez with a long foul fly to left.

[jojo]

Pedro toying with our emotions.....you brut!!!!!!!!!

[Reds Fanatic]

Lopez grounds into a 6-4 fielder's choice. 2-2 mid 7th.

[mbgrayson]

GRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR....

Three more left on. SOOO frustrating.

[Reds Fanatic]

GRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR....

Three more left on. SOOO frustrating.
11 Reds left on so far today.

[BCubb2003]

GRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR....

Three more left on. SOOO frustrating.

But the on base percentage has been great.

[PuffyPig]

Whatever good luck we seemed to have gotten lately has certainly deserted us today.

We've hit a ton of balls hard today right at people, including two balls that were inches from being HR's but ended up doubles (with the runner not scoring). Now, Lopez just misses a grand slam.

[Reds Fanatic]

Arroyo is starting the inning at 100 pitches.

[mbgrayson]

DANGER ZONE. Arroyo at 102 pitches. He drops fast after 115 or so...

[Reds Fanatic]

4 pitch walk to C. Ross.

[oneupper]

Stanton warming. Arroyo looks gassed.

[CTA513]

Good job Arroyo.

:thumbup:

[Reds Fanatic]

Once again they leave a starter in too long. Uggla homers to left. 4-2 Marlins.

[jojo]

sigh.

[oneupper]

Game Over.

[Reds Fanatic]

Now they bring in Stanton.

[jojo]

Does going 5-6 qualify as a successful road trip?

[flyer85]

Hmm ... Pete afraid to go to the pen so he leaves in a pitcher whose performance tends to drop off around the 100 pitch mark ... welcome to Jerrys world.

[Kc61]

Stanton warming. Arroyo looks gassed.

Pete M just became Jerry Narron. He left Arroyo in too long, even when the signs were there.

Please break up this team. I'd rather watch a bunch of young kids lose than watch these guys.

[PuffyPig]

I note the HR hit the foul pole (fair pole?).

I have no idea why Arroto was left in. Other than if you took him out, it was hard not to use our bullpen.

[flyer85]

Does going 5-6 qualify as a successful road trip?

if you're the Reds, yes.

[Reds Fanatic]

Cabrera lines a double to left.

[Tom Servo]

atleast this losing should enforce that Krivsky should be selling hard and that Petey Mac is not a long term answer.

[mbgrayson]

DANGER ZONE. Arroyo at 102 pitches. He drops fast after 115 or so...

BEFORE today, from the ESPN player splits page on Arroyo:

On pitches 106-120, opponents batting .500/.522/.818 for an OPS of 1.340 off Arroyo.

It is just plain dumb to leave him out there after 100 pitches.

[oneupper]

Mac is only slightly different from Narron. Lineups similar (same "breaking up lefties philosophy", similar "leave in starter until he gets killed" philosophy and same small ball tendencies.

The results aren't going to be that different.

[flyer85]

... so Pete brings in a lefty to face a hitter batting over .400 against lefties, Narronesque.

[Reds Fanatic]

Jacobs grounds out to 2nd. Runner goes to 3rd. 1 out.

[CTA513]

Both 2-run homeruns came after Arroyo walked C. Ross.

Arroyo pitched to Cabrera in 2 out of his 3 at bats against him, but wouldn't challenge C. Ross?

:all_cohol

[oneupper]

Stanton to pitch to Cabrera is stupid. Cabrera has an OPS of 1.370 vs. lefties.

[Reds Fanatic]

Willingham singles to center. 5-2 Marlins.

[jojo]

wow...and we still have to make it thru the 8th....

[flyer85]

there really isn't much with this organizatoin or team that isn't broken

[Reds Fanatic]

Hermida strikes out looking. 2 outs.

[Reds Fanatic]

Burton is coming in to pitch.

[CTA513]

Burton is coming in to pitch.

Just use Stone and save the other guys for another game.

[flyer85]

Burton is coming in to pitch.the pitching decisions made this inning make no sense at all

[Reds Fanatic]

Olivo pops out to 3rd. 5-2 Marlins after 7.

[Reds Fanatic]

Miller in to pitch.

[Reds Fanatic]

Ross fouls out to 1st. 1 out.

[Reds Fanatic]

Hatteberg pinch hits and lines out to right. 2 outs.

[Reds Fanatic]

Freel attempts to bunt and pops out to Miller. 5-2 Marlins mid 8th.

[mbgrayson]

Today and yesterday it seems like the Reds have fallen back to late-Narron form.

[Reds Fanatic]

Saarloos in to pitch.

Amezaga leads off with a triple.

[flyer85]

Today and yesterday it seems like the Reds have fallen back to late-Narron form.I'm shocked. They seem to be in a hurry to get back home.

[flyer85]

Saarloos in to pitch.

Amezaga leads off with a triple.:laugh:

[jojo]

Saarloos is a gem.

[Reds Fanatic]

A hit off Saarloos's glove makes it 6-2 Marlins. Here we go again.

[flyer85]

Saarloos is a germ.fixed :D

[Reds Fanatic]

Now Saarloos pick off attempt is wild and the runner goes to 2nd.

[mbgrayson]

Marlin's announcer:
"The sky is falling on the Reds..." after Sarloos throws one past first...

[jojo]

WOW. Now that's versatility.

[Reds Fanatic]

And another hit makes it 1st and 3rd. Reds are trying to outdo last night's 8th inning.

[VR]

The OPS chasm between the Reds and Fish this series in innings 6-9 might be in the thousands. That's scary.

[mbgrayson]

Boy that Marlin is Da_ Ugl_....

[SteelSD]

Great. Now my mlb.tv has slowed to a crawl. Apparently, MLB doesn't want me to see a Reds 8th inning. And I'm not sure that's a bad thing.

[Reds Fanatic]

Uggla doubles in a run. 7-2. Still no outs. Why is Saarloos on this team???

[flyer85]

come August 1st the only current guys who should still be in the Reds pen are Burton and Saarloos.

[VR]

This is like be playing my 5 year old in wiffle ball.

[jojo]

With the trade deadline coming up everyone is expecting a trade. I'm thinking we're gonna see some personnel moves that will involve some guys going but nothing coming back in return.....

[Reds Fanatic]

Cabrera singles off the wall. 9-2 Marlins. Still no outs.

[mbgrayson]

According to Marlins announcer: Our 8th inning ERA this year is 7.42.....(and rising fast!)

[SteelSD]

Cabrera with a 2-Run single off the LF scoreboard.

I'm amused...yet, not.

[jojo]

Hey. At least Saarloos threw strikes.

[flyer85]

if there was any doubt(never in my mind) the last three days have stamped a huge exclamation point on this teams and it's problems.

[edabbs44]

BEFORE today, from the ESPN player splits page on Arroyo:

On pitches 106-120, opponents batting .500/.522/.818 for an OPS of 1.340 off Arroyo.

It is just plain dumb to leave him out there after 100 pitches.

If Arroyo can't go over 100 pitches, then I really don't want this team paying him as much money as he will be paid over the next 3 years. Save that money for a horse.

[The_jbh]

jesus could the 8th inning be any worse for us

[Reds Fanatic]

Quite an outing for Saarloos: 5 batters, 5 hits, 4 runs and a throwing error.

[edabbs44]

if there was any doubt(never in my mind) the last three days have stamped a huge exclamation point on this teams and it's problems.

http://www.sportech.info/wp-content/upload/wayne_krivsky.jpg

[Reds Fanatic]

Gosling comes in and finally gets an out in this inning.

[flyer85]

only 4 runs today before an out in the 8th, that's a bonus.

[VR]

Outscored 24-1 the last three games after the 6th inning. (so far)

[flyer85]

I would add Gosling, I have seen enough from him to keep him around.

[pedro]

maybe the Reds should petition the league to only play 7 inning games.

[Reds Fanatic]

Gosling actually does his job. Trade him immediately he does not fit in with the rest of the bullpen.

[jojo]

If Arroyo can't go over 100 pitches, then I really don't want this team paying him as much money as he will be paid over the next 3 years. Save that money for a horse.

Well he is on pace to throw 215-220 IP this year.... that would be three straight seasons in a row where he went over 200 IP.

I'm not sure what kind of a horse you want for Arroyo's money.

[Reds Fanatic]

These last 2 games Reds bullpen has given up 12 runs on 13 hits in the 8th inning.

[Reds Fanatic]

Keppinger doubles for his 4th hit of the day.

[edabbs44]

Well he is on pace to throw 215-220 IP this year.... that would be three straight seasons in a row where he went over 200 IP.

I'm not sure what kind of a horse you want for Arroyo's money.

Someone who can be effective after 100 pitches. If he has to come out at the 100 pitch mark, then is he worth that amount of money?

[SteelSD]

This was the fifth time in two games a Reds pitcher stepped to the mound with no Outs in the eighth inning, failed to retire a batter in the inning, and allowed at least one Earned Run. Saarloos was both the first and last pitcher to do so.

[jojo]

I would add Gosling, I have seen enough from him to keep him around.

I think if you're going to carry 12 arms, there probably is room for a LOOGY.

[jojo]

Someone who can be effective after 100 pitches. If he has to come out at the 100 pitch mark, then is he worth that amount of money?

Yes.

There are reasons to question Arroyo's contract but really, a split summarizing 39 PA's this season really isn't one of them.

[edabbs44]

Yes.

OK. About to be 4-11 with a 4.58 ERA. I think you can get more for that money.

[mbgrayson]

If Arroyo can't go over 100 pitches, then I really don't want this team paying him as much money as he will be paid over the next 3 years. Save that money for a horse.

I WISH that he could go 120 pitches before he fell apart. But he can't. That is clear now, after almost 4 months. Of the 24 batters he faced after 105 pitches, the opposition has 12 hits and a walk.

IF we had any kind of a bullpen, and we take Arroyo out today after 6, he has given up only 2 runs and given us a quality start. We should have a chance to win if our starter goes 6 and only gives up 2 runs.

At some point, the Reds management needs to realisitically look at the capabilities of our players. If that means pulling Arroyo when he gets to 100 pitches, so be it.

With our bullpen so BAAAAD, this is academic. Today, once again, the starter pitches fairly well. The bullpen then gives up 5 runs in 2 innings pitched.

[Reds Fanatic]

Dunn doubles in a run. 9-3 Marlins.

[edabbs44]

I WISH that he could go 120 pitches before he fell apart. But he can't. That is clear now, after almost 4 months. Of the 24 batters he faced after 105 pitches, the opposition has 12 hits and a walk.

IF we had any kind of a bullpen, and we take Arroyo out today after 6, he has given up only 2 runs and given us a quality start. We should have a chance to win if our starter goes 6 and only gives up 2 runs.

At some point, the Reds management needs to realisitically look at the capabilities of our players. If that means pulling Arroyo when he gets to 100 pitches, so be it.

With our bullpen so BAAAAD, this is academic. Today, once again, the starter pitches fairly well. The bullpen then gives up 5 runs in 2 innings pitched.

That's the problem...it's almost a guaranteed beating when you bring the bullpen in. So the mgr feels like it's better to have Arroyo out there for one more inning to hold off on the inevitable.

[WVRedsFan]

Well he is on pace to throw 215-220 IP this year.... that would be three straight seasons in a row where he went over 200 IP.

I'm not sure what kind of a horse you want for Arroyo's money.

Yep. Arroyo is the least of this team's problems. In fact, he's cheap. The guys making the decisions are the problem.

[jojo]

OK. About to be 4-11 with a 4.58 ERA. I think you can get more for that money.

W-L records and ERA are lousy metrics to evaluate a pitcher.

[mbgrayson]

That's the problem...it's almost a guaranteed beating when you bring the bullpen in. So the mgr feels like it's better to have Arroyo out there for one more inning to hold off on the inevitable.

It is certainly true that our bullpen quality likely leads the manager to leave the starter in longer.

[edabbs44]

W-L records and ERA are lousy metrics to evaluate a pitcher.

Here we go.

I'm not about to get into a debate about xERA and other stats. No one can tell me that Arroyo has pitched well this season, I don't care what any statistic says about him. Bottom line is that his contract extension wll be Miltonesque by the time it gets here and it is very scary.

[mbgrayson]

On the bright side today:

Jeff Keppinger, who still leads the IL in hitting, went 4 for 5 with a double, a HR, 2 RBIs, and 2 runs scored.

[pedro]

Here we go.

I'm not about to get into a debate about xERA and other stats. No one can tell me that Arroyo has pitched well this season, I don't care what any statistic says about him. Bottom line is that his contract extension wll be Miltonesque by the time it gets here and it is very scary.

:rolleyes:

[edabbs44]

:rolleyes:

You think he'll be worth $25 million in 2009-10?

[CTA513]

On the bright side today:

Jeff Keppinger, who still leads the IL in hitting, went 4 for 5 with a double, a HR, 2 RBIs, and 2 runs scored.

Put him at first base tomorrow against Capuano.

[pedro]

You think he'll be worth $25 million in 2009-10?

Considering the market, yeah I do, but don't let that stop you from your diatribe.

[WVRedsFan]

Here we go.

I'm not about to get into a debate about xERA and other stats. No one can tell me that Arroyo has pitched well this season, I don't care what any statistic says about him. Bottom line is that his contract extension wll be Miltonesque by the time it gets here and it is very scary.

Arroyo's extension (and Harang's for that matter) will be money well spent. Now if you're talking about the Narron, Freel, and Coffey extensions as well as the extended contracts for Stanton and others, then I'll agree. Arroyo will be a good 6-inning starter. For his contract, that's pretty good.

[edabbs44]

Considering the market, yeah I do, but don't let that stop you from your diatribe.

Considering that the two biggest whipping boys of this past offseason's FA feeding frenzy (Meche and Lilly) are having HOF seasons compared to the 2007 version of Arroyo, I can't see it. But since Wayne signed BA to the extension I know why you have a problem with my posts. I'm not sure what it's going to take for you to finally see what has happened to this team, mostly at the hands of the GM.

[edabbs44]

Arroyo's extension (and Harang's for that matter) will be money well spent. Now if you're talking about the Narron, Freel, and Coffey extensions as well as the extended contracts for Stanton and others, then I'll agree. Arroyo will be a good 6-inning starter. For his contract, that's pretty good.

How is $12.5 million per year "good" for a 6 inning starter? I just can't see this team dropping $12.5 million, or roughly 15% of your payroll, on a guy who can't get through the 7th. Especially since you rely on what they rely on to pitch the 7th-9th innings.

[WVRedsFan]

How is $12.5 million per year "good" for a 6 inning starter? I just can't see this team dropping $12.5 million, or roughly 15% of your payroll, on a guy who can't get through the 7th. Especially since you rely on what they rely on to pitch the 7th-9th innings.

I see your point and agree, but looking at what FA pitching costs these days, Arroyo is a bargain.

As for your earlier post, we are on the same page. This GM took a bad team and made it worse. That's why the next week will have me biting my fingernails. Someone said he was guy shy. Better gun shy than foolhardy.

[KronoRed]

Dunn doubles in a run. 9-3 Marlins.

See? only drives in runs when the Reds are down a bunch :devil:

[flyer85]

I see your point and agree, but looking at what FA pitching costs these days, Arroyo is a bargain.in the out years he will not be a bargain. His deal just won't be as bad as a number of free agent contracts that have been thrown at bad pitchers.

[edabbs44]

in the out years he will not be a bargain. His deal just won't be as bad as a number of free agent contracts that have been thrown at bad pitchers.

And his trade value was flushed as soon as the contract was signed. He would still have had a lot of value, even with the current year he is having. Now it would be flat-out scary to take him on for a stretch drive acquisition.

[flyer85]

And his trade value was flushed as soon as the contract was signed. He would still have had a lot of value, even with the current year he is having. Now it would be flat-out scary to take him on for a stretch drive acquisition.... the issue was that it was a needless extension at the time. The Reds had Arroyo under contract thru 2008, why not wait and see how 2007 goes before offering an extension?

[edabbs44]

... the issue was that it was a needless extension at the time. The Reds had Arroyo under contract thru 2008, why not wait and see how 2007 goes before offering an extension?

Uh huh.

[pedro]

Considering that the two biggest whipping boys of this past offseason's FA feeding frenzy (Meche and Lilly) are having HOF seasons compared to the 2007 version of Arroyo, I can't see it. But since Wayne signed BA to the extension I know why you have a problem with my posts. I'm not sure what it's going to take for you to finally see what has happened to this team, mostly at the hands of the GM.

pffft. You mean the Ted Lilly who's averaging 6 innings per start this year, has never thrown 200 innings in his career and only has 4 complete games in his entire career? Yeah, that guys a horse, let's give him 40 million dollars but Arroyo is a waste of money. Or Gil Meche, who's never thrown 200 innings in his career, has a history of arm problems, and a 5.18 ERA this month on his way back down to earth? Let's give him 55 million dollars. Regardless of who the Reds GM is you don't have the first clue what you're talking about but continue to litter the board with utter nonsense, inaccuracies, and constant negativity. That is why I have a problem with your posts.

[jojo]

Considering that the two biggest whipping boys of this past offseason's FA feeding frenzy (Meche and Lilly) are having HOF seasons compared to the 2007 version of Arroyo, I can't see it. But since Wayne signed BA to the extension I know why you have a problem with my posts. I'm not sure what it's going to take for you to finally see what has happened to this team, mostly at the hands of the GM.

Here's the three guys, two of which you've suggested are having HOF-worthy seasons relative to the other one. Without looking it up, which one is Arroyo, Meche, and Lilly?

K/9: 6.58; BB/9: 2.49; FIP: 4.07; GB%: 51%; FB%: 33%; BABIP: .302; LOB: 73%;
K/9: 6.23; BB/9: 2.94; FIP: 4.08; GB%: 37%; FB%: 44%; BABIP: .322; LOB: 68%;
K/9: 7.59; BB/9: 2.08; FIP: 3.73; GB%: 35%; FB%: 44%; BABIP: .270; LOB: 72%;


Here's the answer: Meche is the top, Arroyo is the middle and Lilly is the bottom one.

So first, no, Meche and Lilly aren't having seasons that are dramatically superior to Arroyo's. Second, Arroyo really isn't pitching much different than he did last year-even with a string of several starts where he struggled factored in. Third, both Meche and Lilly have pitched dramatically differently than their careers to this point in several aspects. Lilly has always struck guys out but suddenly he cuts his walk rate in half from his Toronto days? Suddenly Meche is an extreme GB pitcher with a walk rate also almost cut in half from years past? Arroyo is pretting much plugging along and eating innings while the other two seem to be riding some waves, if you get my drift.

I know which one I'd want going forward and which contract I think has the best chance of working out.......

BTW, you'd be hard pressed to call me a Krivsky apologist or a biased Arroyo fan.

[WVRedsFan]

... the issue was that it was a needless extension at the time. The Reds had Arroyo under contract thru 2008, why not wait and see how 2007 goes before offering an extension?

That's very true, but when has Krivsky not done that? You could go down the list beginning with Jerry Narron and see the same thing. I'm not surprised he didn't try to sign Lohse long-term after his scoreless inning streak. He extends Narron with only a couple of months under his belt (and for those who say it was Castellini, it matters not because apparently Castellini and Krivsky were on the same page) and the pattern has been established. Everyone lauded the extensions until they one-by-one fell short of expectations and forgot who the guy was that gave the extensions.

[pedro]

I'm surprised some of you geniuses can get out of bed in the morning without your giant heads snapping your necks.

[jojo]

How is $12.5 million per year "good" for a 6 inning starter? I just can't see this team dropping $12.5 million, or roughly 15% of your payroll, on a guy who can't get through the 7th. Especially since you rely on what they rely on to pitch the 7th-9th innings.

He's a six inning starter because he has a bad split against 22 batters in '07 when throwing pitches 106 through 120????????

C'mon.

Over the last three years, that split looks like this: .221/.268/.413 OPS: .681

Like I said, there are reasons to wonder about his contract but this just isn't one of them.

[flyer85]

I have never really panned the Arroyo extension, just pointed out the the timing was odd. For a team like the Reds and at his current salary Arroyo is a huge bargain.

I don't buy the argument the it makes it untradeable. With the dearth of starting pitching in the Reds system it makes trading Arroyo problematic, especially when a lot of his problems can seemingly be traced back to being overworked by Narron early in the year.

Even if you have a bad bullpen you can't have a manager using up the arms of his starters because he doesn't trust his bullpen.

When you look at TBs starters from this year, pitching can get MUCH worse.

[edabbs44]

pffft. You mean the Ted Lilly who's averaging 6 innings per start this year, has never thrown 200 innings in his career and only has 4 complete games in his entire career? Yeah, that guys a horse, let's give him 40 million dollars but Arroyo is a waste of money. Or Gil Meche, who's never thrown 200 innings in his career, has a history of arm problems, and a 5.18 ERA this month on his way back down to earth? Let's give him 55 million dollars. Regardless of who the Reds GM is you don't have the first clue what you're talking about but continue to litter the board with utter nonsense, inaccuracies, and constant negativity. That is why I have a problem with your posts.

Utter nonsense might be a bit strong. When I joined this board last year I was pretty positive. This team has turned me negative. I have had no reason to be positive. If this is supposed to be the "Look on the bright side" board, I must have missed the memo.

But the bottom line is that the contract extension was both short-sighted and unnecessary. I'm not sure how anyone can dispute that. If the FO was buying out his first FA year or something like that, then it makes sense. But it was a bad move then and looks worse now.

[edabbs44]

Here's the three guys, two of which you've suggested are having HOF-worthy seasons relative to the other one. Without looking it up, which one is Arroyo, Meche, and Lilly?

K/9: 6.58; BB/9: 2.49; FIP: 4.07; GB%: 51%; FB%: 33%; BABIP: .302; LOB: 73%;
K/9: 6.23; BB/9: 2.94; FIP: 4.08; GB%: 37%; FB%: 44%; BABIP: .322; LOB: 68%;
K/9: 7.59; BB/9: 2.08; FIP: 3.73; GB%: 35%; FB%: 44%; BABIP: .270; LOB: 72%;


Here's the answer: Meche is the top, Arroyo is the middle and Lilly is the bottom one.

So first, no, Meche and Lilly aren't having seasons that are dramatically superior to Arroyo's. Second, Arroyo really isn't pitching much different than he did last year-even with a string of several starts where he struggled factored in. Third, both Meche and Lilly have pitched dramatically differently than their careers to this point in several aspects. Lilly has always struck guys out but suddenly he cuts his walk rate in half from his Toronto days? Suddenly Meche is an extreme GB pitcher with a walk rate also almost cut in half from years past? Arroyo is pretting much plugging along and eating innings while the other two seem to be riding some waves, if you get my drift.

I know which one I'd want going forward and which contract I think has the best chance of working out.......

BTW, you'd be hard pressed to call me a Krivsky apologist or a biased Arroyo fan.

Bottom line is that games aren't won and lost on the stats you bring up. I realize that some do have importance over others, don't get me wrong, but I don't think GMs get passes on bad moves because a pitcher's BABIP was very high or their xERA was good.

[jojo]

Bottom line is that games aren't won and lost on the stats you bring up. I realize that some do have importance over others, don't get me wrong, but I don't think GMs get passes on bad moves because a pitcher's BABIP was very high or their xERA was good.

You're begging the question that Arroyo's extension was a bad move. You also seem to have reached a conclusion about Arroyo based upon metrics that he largely has very little control over.

I'm sorry but all too often you seem to have an agenda that gets manifested in some rather contorted stat-based arguments.

[pedro]

If this is supposed to be the "Look on the bright side" board, I must have missed the memo.



Of course not, the Reds are having a crappy year and the bullpen is beyond pathetic. However, this juvenile game everyone is playing acting like it's the end of the world and that every move the Reds make is stupid and they know better is extremely short sighted, born of ignorance, arrogance and immaturity, and doesn't take into account the sorry state this franchise was at the beginning of 2006 or the difficulty in turning such a sorry ship around in such a short time.

[edabbs44]

You're begging the question that Arroyo's extension was a bad move. You also seem to have reached a conclusion about Arroyo based upon metrics that he largely has very little control over.

I'm sorry but all too often you seem to have an agenda that gets manifested in some rather contorted stat-based arguments.

It truly is amazing how there are so many Reds players who perform so well at the "advanced" statistics and so poorly at the "traditional" statistics. I guess this team would be a great strat-o-matic team, since they suck in the traditional sense.

I think the Arroyo extension was a bad move. Much of that is based on the fact that he was locked up through 2008 at a bargain rate. He had a career year last season, after being decent to good in the AL East. Now he is part of the problem with this team in 2007 and we want to start looking at his line drive rates? Come on, let's be serious.

[edabbs44]

Of course not, the Reds are having a crappy year and the bullpen is beyond pathetic. However, this juvenile game everyone is playing acting like it's the end of the world and that every move the Reds make is stupid and they know better is extremely short sighted, born of ignorance, arrogance and immaturity, and doesn't take into account the sorry state this franchise was at the beginning of 2006 or the difficulty in turning such a sorry ship around in such a short time.

This team has gotten worse. Usually that happens when you build for the future. That's probably my biggest issue here.

[SteelSD]

Just an FYI- if we're expecting Arroyo to average 7.0 IP or more every time out, we need to realize that from 2005 to current only Brandon Webb, Chris Carpenter, and Livan Hernandez have posted a single season averaging that many IP. We also might want to note that Arroyo finished fourth in the NL in 2006 IP per Start at 6.86. Even during a somewhat down season for Arroyo, he's in the top half of NL ERA qualifiers in IP per Start (6.25) and is slightly ahead of John Smoltz, Rich Hill, Matt Cain, Chris Young, and Tom Glavine. He's way ahead of Greg Maddux (5.91), Dontrelle Willis (5.76), and Barry Zito (5.71).

Arroyo isn't an ace, he's not as good as his 2006 ERA, but being pretty good at gobbling up Innings each start isn't really an Arroyo weakness when we view his numbers in proper context.

These magical 7+ IP guys don't actually exist in the NL in any kind of number, and they don't post seasonal averages topping 7 or more Innings with any kind of regularity.

[pedro]

This team has gotten worse. Usually that happens when you build for the future. That's probably my biggest issue here.

Just because they aren't doing well in the standings this year doesn't mean they are in worse position to compete in the future and I don't believe you are capable of distinguishing the difference between the two. That is probably my biggest issue here.

[flyer85]

fixing the pen is an imperative. The Indians went about by giving a ton of different guys in the organization a chance. Hopefully the Reds will do that and focus on guys that can miss bats. I would have no problem with Bailey spending some time in the pen. He reminded me an awful lot of Wainwright of St Louis although I think Wainwright has a much better curveball.

[jojo]

It truly is amazing how there are so many Reds players who perform so well at the "advanced" statistics and so poorly at the "traditional" statistics. I guess this team would be a great strat-o-matic team, since they suck in the traditional sense.

I think the Arroyo extension was a bad move. Much of that is based on the fact that he was locked up through 2008 at a bargain rate. He had a career year last season, after being decent to good in the AL East. Now he is part of the problem with this team in 2007 and we want to start looking at his line drive rates? Come on, let's be serious.

How is he part of the problem?

[WVRedsFan]

fixing the pen is an imperative. The Indians went about by giving a ton of different guys in the organization a chance. Hopefully the Reds will do that and focus on guys that can miss bats. I would have no problem with Bailey spending some time in the pen. He reminded me an awful lot of Wainwright of St Louis although I think Wainwright has a much better curveball.

Unfortunately, my knowledge of how good our young pitchers are is limited due to time, so I'm asking. How do some of the minor league gurus see the AAA and AA pitching?

I've maintained, unintelligently, that I'd rather see the kids up here than what we have. How wise is this sentiment?

[jojo]

Just an FYI- if we're expecting Arroyo to average 7.0 IP or more every time out, we need to realize that from 2005 to current only Brandon Webb, Chris Carpenter, and Livan Hernandez have posted a single season averaging that many IP. We also might want to note that Arroyo finished fourth in the NL in 2006 IP per Start at 6.86. Even during a somewhat down season for Arroyo, he's in the top half of NL ERA qualifiers in IP per Start (6.25) and is slightly ahead of John Smoltz, Rich Hill, Matt Cain, Chris Young, and Tom Glavine. He's way ahead of Greg Maddux (5.91), Dontrelle Willis (5.76), and Barry Zito (5.71).

Arroyo isn't an ace, he's not as good as his 2006 ERA, but being pretty good at gobbling up Innings each start isn't really an Arroyo weakness when we view his numbers in proper context.

These magical 7+ IP guys don't actually exist in the NL in any kind of number, and they don't post seasonal averages topping 7 or more Innings with any kind of regularity.

Exactly.

[Falls City Beer]

I'm surprised some of you geniuses can get out of bed in the morning without your giant heads snapping your necks.


http://www.rongoodwin.co.uk/islandearth.jpg

[edabbs44]

Just an FYI- if we're expecting Arroyo to average 7.0 IP or more every time out, we need to realize that from 2005 to current only Brandon Webb, Chris Carpenter, and Livan Hernandez have posted a single season averaging that many IP. We also might want to note that Arroyo finished fourth in the NL in 2006 IP per Start at 6.86. Even during a somewhat down season for Arroyo, he's in the top half of NL ERA qualifiers in IP per Start (6.25) and is slightly ahead of John Smoltz, Rich Hill, Matt Cain, Chris Young, and Tom Glavine. He's way ahead of Greg Maddux (5.91), Dontrelle Willis (5.76), and Barry Zito (5.71).

Arroyo isn't an ace, he's not as good as his 2006 ERA, but being pretty good at gobbling up Innings each start isn't really an Arroyo weakness when we view his numbers in proper context.

These magical 7+ IP guys don't actually exist in the NL in any kind of number, and they don't post seasonal averages topping 7 or more Innings with any kind of regularity.

The feeling on here was that the Reds should start thinking about yanking Arroyo after he hits 100 pitches, regardless of situation.

[Always Red]

The feeling on here was that the Reds should start thinking about yanking Arroyo after he hits 100 pitches, regardless of situation.

That seems about right.

Cyclone did some great research on that back about 6 weeks or so ago, to which I was very resistant at the time.

I think he was right, and I was wrong.

Those 129 pitches, on May16th, in San Diego, put Arroyo off his game for about a month.

Once he recovered, his FB was back up to 90-91 with some movement, which makes his offspeed stuff all the better.

Arroyo knows how to pitch. I was all for trading him last week for Salty, and I'm still up in the air about that (mostly because I feel Saltalamacchia is such a rare talent).

Bottom line is that this team needs more guys like Bronson Arroyo.

[Big Klu]

Well, thanks to all for the play-by-play and commentary. I also recorded the game and watched it this morning. It looked like Arroyo didn't have his good stuff, but gave the Reds a solid effort. I would have pulled him after six innings. The bullpen imploded again (big surprise), though I thought Gosling did OK. The offense blew numerous opportunities that could have changed the tide of game. On a positive note, I thought Keppinger and Dunn looked good at the plate. I would start Keppinger at SS tonight. (Kepp would be the offensive SS, and Lopez would be the defensive replacement.)

[Matt700wlw]

I guess me taking 2 days off didn't make this team any better :)

Too bad they got pounded, not just beat. Glad I missed most of it, and only saw the scores on my cell phone. The frustration wouldn't have mixed well with the alcohol consumption Saturday and the recovery process Sunday :)

[corkedbat]

Dan0 sighting