Adam Dunn is #225 with 225 career home runs...

[AtomicDumpling]

Adam Dunn passed Derrek Lee , Bobby Grich and Alfonso Soriano on the all-time career home run list today. Dunn is #225 on the list with 225 career homers at the age of 27.

#225 with 225. :)

Next up is Johnny Callison with 226.

He will soon pass another strikeout king at 230 ----> Rob Deer. Of course Deer had a career line of only .220/.324/.768 compared to Dunn's excellent line of .247/.378/.894. It took Deer 13 seasons to get 230 HRs, while Dunn will get there in his 7th season. Deer holds the American League strikeout record with 186 in a season while Dunn holds the National League record of 195 in 2004.

Magglio Ordonez, Paul Molitor, Gary Matthews and ex-Red Kevin Mitchell have 234.

[uoduck1017]

I think it's hard to believe there have only been 225 players in the history of baseball to hit 225 homeruns. In the new era of baseball, though, we should see plenty more players reach this plateau and hit many more than 225.

[BLEEDS]

Yeah, and a 10 game hitting streak.

He sucks.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[Degenerate39]

He sucks.

Then the Reds must be the worst team in the history of baseball because only: Griffey, Harang, and possibly Phillips can be considered better.

[AtomicDumpling]

I think it's hard to believe there have only been 225 players in the history of baseball to hit 225 homeruns. In the new era of baseball, though, we should see plenty more players reach this plateau and hit many more than 225.

I agree. Home runs are much more common now than yesteryear. The players are bigger due to improved nutrition as kids, advanced strength training, protein supplements and some would say steroids (although I think roids are very small part of it). What with smaller ballfields, smaller strikezones and a new philosophical emphasis of slugging over defense we see a greatly increased frequency of home runs.

Even taking that into consideration, Adam Dunn's power is still very impressive. There is only one player ahead of Dunn on the list that is younger than he is ----> Albert Pujols. Pujols is two months younger than Dunn. Obviously, Pujols is a once per generation type of talent and barring injury is a lock to make the Hall of Fame. Dunn is hitting home runs at a rate that will put him near the top of the list with 500+ homers by the time he calls it quits. That is impressive in any era, including this one.

Right now Dunn is passing some very good hitters with almost every homer he hits. But it won't be long before he clears a large pack and reaches some rare territory. 280 players have hit 200 homers. Only 177 players have hit 250. Only 114 have hit 300. Only 42 have hit 400. Only 21 have hit 500 (A-Rod will get there next week).


Here are some other active sluggers that Dunn is catching up with:
#Homers
227 Eric Chavez age 29
234 Matt Stairs age 39
234 Maglio Ordonez age 33
240 Carlos Lee age 31
240 Lance Berkman age 31
245 Garret Anderson age 35
247 Miguel Tejada age 31
247 David Ortiz age 31
249 Jose Valentin age 38
252 Jermaine Dye age 33


Jeff Conine is #245 with 213 homers but he is 41 years old.

The next youngest player on the list besides Dunn is Mark Teixeira who is 6 months younger but has only 153 homers (#402).

Adam Dunn has made many Reds fans take the home run for granted. It is still a very difficult accomplishment to hit a small round curving ball going 90+ MPH with a thin round bat over the fence 330-410 feet away.

Of course Ken Griffey Jr. is another story. LOL But we are all more familiar with his impressive career. Dunn's all-around game is not nearly as great as Griffey's, nor will Dunn likely have a shot at the Hall of Fame. But he is a huge asset to the team never the less. It makes me kind of embarrassed that so many Reds fans can't see past the strikeouts to see the 100+ runs that Dunn drives in and the 100+ runs he scores every year. The object of the game is to put runs on the scoreboard -- not make contact or get hits. Dunn puts runs on the scoreboard better than any other Red every year (including Griffey) and yet so many fans want to run him out of town. I think its shameful.

[Chi-Town Red]

It will be a shame if he is traded...have followed him since he was in the minors...sluggers like him only come around once a decade...i hope he stays

[Chi-Town Red]

Don't forget another reason for the home run surge, is the moving in of the fences in the new ball parks.

[BLEEDS]

Then the Reds must be the worst team in the history of baseball because only: Griffey, Harang, and possibly Phillips can be considered better.

You don't recognize sarcasm when you read it do ya.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[DTCromer]

Yeah, and a 10 game hitting streak.

He sucks.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Well crap, why don't we just keep Adam Dunn then? :rolleyes

[BLEEDS]

Well crap, why don't we just keep Adam Dunn then? :rolleyes

okay :tounge-stick-out

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[Krawhitham]

Yeah, and a 10 game hitting streak.

He sucks.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

He makes that catch last night we win

[Ludwig Reds Fan]

He makes that catch last night we win

Dunn also hit a HR though...




:evil:

[BLEEDS]

He makes that catch last night we win

That's a bit of a stretch... He also hit a 2 run Homer in the 8th, to get us within a run.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[Degenerate39]

You don't recognize sarcasm when you read it do ya.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

:rolleyes: I knew you were joking I was just saying


He makes that catch last night we win

Norris Hopper wouldn't have made that catch either.

[uoduck1017]

I agree. Home runs are much more common now than yesteryear. The players are bigger due to improved nutrition as kids, advanced strength training, protein supplements and some would say steroids (although I think roids are very small part of it). What with smaller ballfields, smaller strikezones and a new philosophical emphasis of slugging over defense we see a greatly increased frequency of home runs.

Even taking that into consideration, Adam Dunn's power is still very impressive. There is only one player ahead of Dunn on the list that is younger than he is ----> Albert Pujols. Pujols is two months younger than Dunn. Obviously, Pujols is a once per generation type of talent and barring injury is a lock to make the Hall of Fame. Dunn is hitting home runs at a rate that will put him near the top of the list with 500+ homers by the time he calls it quits. That is impressive in any era, including this one.

Right now Dunn is passing some very good hitters with almost every homer he hits. But it won't be long before he clears a large pack and reaches some rare territory. 280 players have hit 200 homers. Only 177 players have hit 250. Only 114 have hit 300. Only 42 have hit 400. Only 21 have hit 500 (A-Rod will get there next week).


Here are some other active sluggers that Dunn is catching up with:
#Homers
227 Eric Chavez age 29
234 Matt Stairs age 39
234 Maglio Ordonez age 33
240 Carlos Lee age 31
240 Lance Berkman age 31
245 Garret Anderson age 35
247 Miguel Tejada age 31
247 David Ortiz age 31
249 Jose Valentin age 38
252 Jermaine Dye age 33


Jeff Conine is #245 with 213 homers but he is 41 years old.

The next youngest player on the list besides Dunn is Mark Teixeira who is 6 months younger but has only 153 homers (#402).

Adam Dunn has made many Reds fans take the home run for granted. It is still a very difficult accomplishment to hit a small round curving ball going 90+ MPH with a thin round bat over the fence 330-410 feet away.

Of course Ken Griffey Jr. is another story. LOL But we are all more familiar with his impressive career. Dunn's all-around game is not nearly as great as Griffey's, nor will Dunn likely have a shot at the Hall of Fame. But he is a huge asset to the team never the less. It makes me kind of embarrassed that so many Reds fans can't see past the strikeouts to see the 100+ runs that Dunn drives in and the 100+ runs he scores every year. The object of the game is to put runs on the scoreboard -- not make contact or get hits. Dunn puts runs on the scoreboard better than any other Red every year (including Griffey) and yet so many fans want to run him out of town. I think its shameful.

Great post. Barring any significant setback or injury, there is no reason why Adam Dunn shouldn't hit 500 homers for his career. It would be great to see him do that in a Reds uniform, unfortunately, he might be elsewhere.

[Muggerd]

Sweet hes #225 lets sign him to a 10 year deal worth 20 million a year. Hell id much rather have him than a pitcher. If you ask me who would you rather have Zambrano or Adam Dunn. :laugh:

[Chi-Town Red]

We need alot more than a pitcher to right this ship... again for the millionth time, you need to score runs in GABP...you need someone like DUNN !!

[AtomicDumpling]

Sweet hes #225 lets sign him to a 10 year deal worth 20 million a year. Hell id much rather have him than a pitcher. If you ask me who would you rather have Zambrano or Adam Dunn. :laugh:

I would take both.

Zambrano could get a $100 million contract this offseason (unless he takes less to stay with the Cubs). Dunn will get about $60 million after this season or after next if the Reds pick up his option. So its not really a "take your pick" scenario.

Generally, signing young hitters to a long-term contract is a much safer bet than signing pitchers to a long-term contract. With a pitcher his next pitch could be his last. Hitters are much less likely to have an injury that puts them out of action for months or years.

The Reds strategy needs to be to outscore the number of runs our pitchers allow. We know our pitching staff is going to allow a ton of runs, so we better have an offense that scores more than a ton of runs.

Signing one stud starting pitcher helps us in about 10% of the team's innings and leaves us helpless in 90%. Signing Dunn (or another stud left fielder) helps us in every one of our games. Bringing in a Zambrano will only improve this team a little. We need to upgrade about eight or nine of our 12 pitchers before this staff will be competitive.

Right now the only thing this team does well is score runs. We can't afford to mess that up in a weak effort to patch up our pitching staff. Ditching Dunn in order to spend his salary on pitching will serve merely to cripple our offense while only slightly improving our pitching.

[Muggerd]

I would take both.

Zambrano could get a $100 million contract this offseason (unless he takes less to stay with the Cubs). Dunn will get about $60 million after this season or after next if the Reds pick up his option. So its not really a "take your pick" scenario.

Generally, signing young hitters to a long-term contract is a much safer bet than signing pitchers to a long-term contract. With a pitcher his next pitch could be his last. Hitters are much less likely to have an injury that puts them out of action for months or years.

The Reds strategy needs to be to outscore the number of runs our pitchers allow. We know our pitching staff is going to allow a ton of runs, so we better have an offense that scores more than a ton of runs.

Signing one stud starting pitcher helps us in about 10% of the team's innings and leaves us helpless in 90%. Signing Dunn (or another stud left fielder) helps us in every one of our games. Bringing in a Zambrano will only improve this team a little. We need to upgrade about eight or nine of our 12 pitchers before this staff will be competitive.

Right now the only thing this team does well is score runs. We can't afford to mess that up in a weak effort to patch up our pitching staff. Ditching Dunn in order to spend his salary on pitching will serve merely to cripple our offense while only slightly improving our pitching.

Home Runs = wins :bang:
Some how Aaron Harang has won 10 games with this ___ bullpen. Its pretty clear that good pitching can pitch in GABP its just the ___ ones get rocked.

Reds have problems scoring runs consistently. I blame that on strike outs and a low BA. The out scoring how many runs our pitching gives up hasnt worked ever, and im pretty sure its never worked for any other team either.

[Muggerd]

.

[Muggerd]

We need alot more than a pitcher to right this ship... again for the millionth time, you need to score runs in GABP...you need someone like DUNN !!

you mean a guy that bats .220 with RISP? I think you mean someone like a Brandon Phillips, Hatteberg, Encarnacion,and Griffey who all better stats with RISP. Call me crazy but Dunn sucking with RISP is more of a problem for this reds team scoring runs than anything.

[AtomicDumpling]

you mean a guy that bats .220 with RISP? I think you mean someone like a Brandon Phillips, Hatteberg, Encarnacion,and Griffey who all better stats with RISP. Call me crazy but Dunn sucking with RISP is more of a problem for this reds team scoring runs than anything.

This has been covered to death on these boards before. Sigh.

Dunn leads the Reds in runs scored every year. He leads the Reds in RBI every year.

You can't change that fact.

Despite the low average with RISP. Despite the strikeouts. He puts runs on the scoreboard. No matter what you say you can't change it. Neither Phillips, Hatteberg, EE nor Griffey produces runs better than Griffey. That is a fact.

[Chi-Town Red]

This has been covered to death on these boards before. Sigh.

Dunn leads the Reds in runs scored every year. He leads the Reds in RBI every year.

You can't change that fact.

Despite the low average with RISP. Despite the strikeouts. He puts runs on the scoreboard. No matter what you say you can't change it. Neither Phillips, Hatteberg, EE nor Griffey produces runs better than Griffey. That is a fact.
some people will never get it...until he's gone....then we will get the i wish we had Dunn back threads....geez :rolleyes:

[Muggerd]

This has been covered to death on these boards before. Sigh.

Dunn leads the Reds in runs scored every year. He leads the Reds in RBI every year.

You can't change that fact.

Despite the low average with RISP. Despite the strikeouts. He puts runs on the scoreboard. No matter what you say you can't change it. Neither Phillips, Hatteberg, EE nor Griffey produces runs better than Griffey. That is a fact.
I cant change the fact that hes awful when it matters.

[Muggerd]

some people will never get it...until he's gone....then we will get the i wish we had Dunn back threads....geez :rolleyes:

Look around the league and find me a guy thats worse than dunn with RISP and has comparable stats. There isnt any guys. He leaves more runners on base than anyone on this team.

[Chi-Town Red]

and it's his fault no one is one base when he hits HR'S?

[Muggerd]

You know what I think Frank Thomas is actually worse.

[Muggerd]

and it's his fault no one is one base when he hits HR'S?

Its his fault he cant hit homers with anyone on base yes. Have you compared his stats with other players?

[AtomicDumpling]

Since Dunn only scores 100 runs per year he sucks because he doesn't score 125?

Since Dunn only drives in 100 runs per year he sucks because he doesn't drive in 125?

Sure his numbers would be better if his batting average with RISP were better, but even with the low average he still produces 200+ runs per year.

Would you rather have a guy that hits .400 with RISP but only produces 75 runs scored and 75 RBI per year?

The runs scored and RBI are what we need, not gaudy ratios. It doesn't matter how you produce the runs. It only matters that you produce them -- any way you can.

Dunn doesn't require having RISP in order to produce runs. His power produces runs even when there aren't runners in scoring position.

Too many people just look at the average with RISP without looking at his total production. Most people aren't even aware that Dunn is the team's best run scorer, not just an RBI man.

[Muggerd]

Since Dunn only scores 100 runs per year he sucks because he doesn't score 125?

Since Dunn only drives in 100 runs per year he sucks because he doesn't drive in 125?

Sure his numbers would be better if his batting average with RISP were better, but even with the low average he still produces 200+ runs per year.

Would you rather have a guy that hits .400 with RISP but only produces 75 runs scored and 75 RBI per year?

The runs scored and RBI are what we need, not gaudy ratios. It doesn't matter how you produce the runs. It only matters that you produce them -- any way you can.

Dunn doesn't require having RISP in order to produce runs. His power produces runs even when there aren't runners in scoring position.

Too many people just look at the average with RISP without looking at his total production. Most people aren't even aware that Dunn is the team's best run scorer, not just an RBI man.


Dunn walks more than he hits with RISP thats great production. Dunn leaves so many RBIS on the field that other options would get in on a regular basis. I dont think Dunn is bad but you ask me 13 million in the off season or not having 13 million id much rather have the 13 million. I simply feel that Dunns production is replaceable. You also forget to mention that Dunn by getting out more with RISP also lowers the amount of runs the reds can actually score. There is more to scoring runs than just the totals at the end of year.

[Degenerate39]

Dunn walks more than he hits with RISP thats great production. Dunn leaves so many RBIS on the field that other options would get in on a regular basis.

So it's Dunn's fault he gets no protection?

[Muggerd]

So it's Dunn's fault he gets no protection?
I would listen to the no protection arguement if he didnt strike out so much and the batters after him in the lineup were worse with RISP than him. Whats to be afraid of if a guy strikes out 33% of the time with RISP anyways.

Batting 3rd his numbers are actually much worse anyways.

[AtomicDumpling]

Dunn leaves so many RBIS on the field that other options would get in on a regular basis.

I would like to see some data to support that claim. I would bet Dunn's ratio of RBI to runners left in scoring position is very good.

Since he gets himself in scoring position so often, it would be interesting to see how often he is driven in percentage-wise. How often is he "left on the field".

[Fil3232]

Dunn walks more than he hits with RISP thats great production. Dunn leaves so many RBIS on the field that other options would get in on a regular basis. I dont think Dunn is bad but you ask me 13 million in the off season or not having 13 million id much rather have the 13 million. I simply feel that Dunns production is replaceable. You also forget to mention that Dunn by getting out more with RISP also lowers the amount of runs the reds can actually score. There is more to scoring runs than just the totals at the end of year.


I would be really interested to hear how you think Dunn's production can be easily replaced. Also, what F.A. pitchers are going to be worth bloated contracts this offseason?

If there are easy answers to those questions than I must be looking at all the wrong available info.

[Blue]

Guys who hit well only when there are RISP are pissing away the vast majority of their at-bats. They also aren't creating RISP opportunities for their teammates.

[Fil3232]

I would like to see some data to support that claim. I would bet Dunn's ratio of RBI to runners left in scoring position is very good.

Since he gets himself in scoring position so often, it would be interesting to see how often he is driven in percentage-wise. How often is he "left on the field".


Dude, don't you know everything in baseball revolves around RISP? Frankly, I'm suprised runs that come from out of scoring position are even tallied. They seem like such a waste of time.

[Muggerd]

Guys who hit well only when there are RISP are pissing away the vast majority of their at-bats. They also aren't creating RISP opportunities for their teammates.

You do know we are talking about dunn here right? We arent talking about a leadoff guy whos job is to get on base. We are talking about Adam Dunn whos job is to hit with guys on base not get bases empty doubles while striking out when there are guys on base to drive in.

I could give a **** less if Dunn batted .000 with no one on base if he batted .500 with people on base.

[Muggerd]

Dude, don't you know everything in baseball revolves around RISP? Frankly, I'm suprised runs that come from out of scoring position are even tallied. They seem like such a waste of time.

Sarcasm overload. You are right getting those guys from 2nd on a more consitant basis is less important than hoping for a 2 run homer or a gap shot and hoping that Phillips or Freel are standing on 1st to score.

[Fil3232]

You do know we are talking about dunn here right? We arent talking about a leadoff guy whos job is to get on base. We are talking about Adam Dunn whos job is to hit with guys on base not get bases empty doubles while striking out when there are guys on base to drive in.

I could give a **** less if Dunn batted .000 with no one on base if he batted .500 with people on base.

Do you know Dunn is 7th in the NL in RBI? What are your expectaions for Dunn? A-Rod type numbers? By your arguments, you would think Dunn would have like 30 RBI or something? Maybe you need to adjust your expectations for the man.

[AtomicDumpling]

The out scoring how many runs our pitching gives up hasnt worked ever, and im pretty sure its never worked for any other team either.

I'm pretty sure that is how it has worked for every team in the history of baseball.

If you score more runs than you allow then you win.

[Degenerate39]

I would listen to the no protection arguement if he didnt strike out so much

If he had good protection he'd get better pitches to hit and strike out less.

[Fil3232]

Sarcasm overload. You are right getting those guys from 2nd on a more consitant basis is less important than hoping for a 2 run homer or a gap shot and hoping that Phillips or Freel are standing on 1st to score.

What I think is important is producing runs. Which Dunn does, in boatloads for this team. What you think is important is a stat that may or may not even present itself in a given game. You tell me what is more logical.

[Muggerd]

Do you know Dunn is 7th in the NL in RBI? What are your expectaions for Dunn? A-Rod type numbers? By your arguments, you would think Dunn would have like 30 RBI or something? Maybe you need to adjust your expectations for the man.

Im not talking about my expectations im talking about 13 million dollars being better spent elsewhere than a guy that relies on the home run so much. Its not like the reds are starved for runs as it is. The runs just arent going to disappear. They will still be on base and with someone that acutally hits with RISP we will not be so needy of that 2 run blast every night. For anyone misunderstanding me i want this team to score runs every night not 15 one night and 2 the next. consistency is lacking out of this team. Dunn is just the easiest option for this team to improve. Not because he wouldnt be in the lineup but because the money can help improve our weakness. Look at the numbers last year Adam Dunn had just as many at bats as league leaders in RBIs and he was 24th.

[Muggerd]

If he had good protection he'd get better pitches to hit and strike out less.

You cant have it both ways here man. Good protection would mean he walks more, its not the case with good protection he actually strikes out more.

[Blue]

You do know we are talking about dunn here right? We arent talking about a leadoff guy whos job is to get on base. We are talking about Adam Dunn whos job is to hit with guys on base not get bases empty doubles while striking out when there are guys on base to drive in.

I could give a **** less if Dunn batted .000 with no one on base if he batted .500 with people on base.

Actually, like every other hitter in the history of the live ball era, Dunn's job is to get on base and slug. He does both, and does both well. Why you fault the man for creating his own rallies when no one is on base and not making outs when they are is a mystery to me.

[Degenerate39]

You cant have it both ways here man. Good protection would mean he walks more

Are you serious? That means they'll pitch to him to hopefully get an out so they won't have to pitch to Griffey.

[Muggerd]

What I think is important is producing runs. Which Dunn does, in boatloads for this team. What you think is important is a stat that may or may not even present itself in a given game. You tell me what is more logical.

Look at the other top run producers in the league and get back to me. They all are better with people on base. Dunn gets worse. That isnt good no matter how you want to spin it. He scores runs because he has home run power while other players score runs because they have home run power and hit better when given the chance for an RBI.

Look at lance Berkman he batted around .200 last year with no one on, and in the .320s with someone on base and he had almost 40 rbis more. And Houston scored no where near the amount of runs the reds did.

[Muggerd]

Are you serious? That means they'll pitch to him to hopefully get an out so they won't have to pitch to Griffey.
They pitch to him and guess what? He strikes out even more, and bats even worse with runners on base. You must not be understanding something here.

[Muggerd]

Actually, like every other hitter in the history of the live ball era, Dunn's job is to get on base and slug. He does both, and does both well. Why you fault the man for creating his own rallies when no one is on base and not making outs when they are is a mystery to me.

Because he kills rallies by getting out at a ridiculous rate... You guys all want to look at numbers but you never seem to want to compare them with anything. Building a team of Adam Dunns will not win you games.

[Muggerd]

With protection Dunn walks less and strikes out more. I think id rather have him with no protection why glorify his faults by putting him in that position?

[AtomicDumpling]

Sarcasm overload. You are right getting those guys from 2nd on a more consitant basis is less important than hoping for a 2 run homer or a gap shot and hoping that Phillips or Freel are standing on 1st to score.

Does driving in a runner from 2nd base count for more than one run?

Do you get extra credit for driving in a run depending on the circumstances?

Does a solo homer count for one run just like a single with a man on third?

Does batting average with RISP give the batter credit for a sac fly or a grounder to the right side? Both of those can drive in the run but don't improve the BA w/RISP.

Which is better, a home run or a single?

Does batting average w/RISP give you the same credit for a single and a home run?

Did you know Adam Dunn's batting average with runners on base this season is better than with the bases empty? (.265 vs .262) Or is that not the propaganda you want to believe?

Did you know Adam Dunn's career OPS is better with RISP than with the bases empty? Or is that also not the propaganda you want to believe?

If you were a pitcher would you give Adam Dunn a nice pitch to hit with RISP? Or would you pitch around him to face Alex Gonzalez or Edwin Encarnacion?

Even if you could find a way to prove Dunn isn't an RBI producer (which you can't since he gets 100+ every year), then how would you plan to denigrate his 100+ runs scored per year? Who else on the Reds scores 100 runs per year? Freel? Griffey? Hatteberg? Phillips? Nope, nope, nope and nope.

[Blue]

Look at the other top run producers in the league and get back to me. They all are better with people on base. Dunn gets worse. That isnt good no matter how you want to spin it. He scores runs because he has home run power while other players score runs because they have home run power and hit better when given the chance for an RBI.

Look at lance Berkman he batted around .200 last year with no one on, and in the .320s with someone on base and he had almost 40 rbis more. And Houston scored no where near the amount of runs the reds did.

Its already been pointed out to you that Dunn is 7th in RBI. He does it differently. It works for him. Why screw around with it?

[Blue]

Because he kills rallies by getting out at a ridiculous rate... You guys all want to look at numbers but you never seem to want to compare them with anything. Building a team of Adam Dunns will not win you games.

NO. NO HE DOES NOT. That is absolute garbage. He doesn't make an out 37.5% of the time with RISP. That's good.

[Muggerd]

Does driving in a runner from 2nd base count for more than one run?

Do you get extra credit for driving in a run depending on the circumstances?

Does a solo homer count for one run just like a single with a man on third?

Does batting average with RISP give the batter credit for a sac fly or a grounder to the right side? Both of those can drive in the run but don't improve the BA w/RISP.

Which is better, a home run or a single?

Does batting average w/RISP give you the same credit for a single and a home run?

Did you know Adam Dunn's batting average with runners on base this season is better than with the bases empty? (.265 vs .262) Or is that not the propaganda you want to believe?

Did you know Adam Dunn's career OPS is better with RISP than with the bases empty? Or is that also not the propaganda you want to believe?

If you were a pitcher would you give Adam Dunn a nice pitch to hit with RISP? Or would you pitch around him to face Alex Gonzalez or Edwin Encarnacion?

Even if you could find a way to prove Dunn isn't an RBI producer (which you can't since he gets 100+ every year), then how would you plan to denigrate his 100+ runs scored per year? Who else on the Reds scores 100 runs per year? Freel? Griffey? Hatteberg? Phillips? Nope, nope, nope and nope.

If only Dunn could get a sac fly he might get some more RBIs. Dunns OPS is higher because he would rather take a walk than hit with someone on base.

If i was a Pitcher and the reds were down by 1 run and a guy was on 3rd and 2nd i would rather pitch to Dunn than Edwin yes. Sure Dunn could hit that 3 run homer but you know what hes also much more likely to get out.

[Fil3232]

The only comparison I have read thus far is that Adam Dunn isn't Lance Berkman. Guess what? A very precious few in the game are. The heart of the Dunn criticism stems from exaggerrated hype and expectaions rather than actual production and evidence.

EDIT:

I guess it is conveniently left out that Dunn is out-pacing Berkman THIS YEAR in AVG., SLG., OPS, R, HR, RBI, and SB. But yeah, Dunn didn't have a good of year last year as one of the best hitters in baseball. Shame on him.

[Muggerd]

NO. NO HE DOES NOT. That is absolute garbage. He doesn't make an out 37.5% of the time with RISP. That's good.

He strikes out 33% of the time with someone on base, thats bad

He never gets a sac fly, thats bad.

He gets out more than any other top RBI in the majors with guys on base, thats bad.

[Degenerate39]

With protection Dunn walks less and strikes out more. I think id rather have him with no protection why glorify his faults by putting him in that position?

So is he going to be better with Juan Castro batting behind him or Ken Griffey Jr.?

They'll walk him intentionally to get to Castro. With Junior behind him he has a good chance of getting a homer.

[Muggerd]

The only comparison I have read thus far is that Adam Dunn isn't Lance Berkman. Guess what? A very precious few in the game are. The heart of the Dunn criticism stems from exaggerrated hype and expectaions rather than actual production and evidence.

Exaggerated hype that you guys seem to want to push. Show me another 40 home run guy that is bad as dunn in situations with someone on base? You dont think the solo homers are replaceable with someone who is much more likely to get a runner in from 2nd? If the game only counted home runs then Dunn would be key but sadly for the Reds they also count runs that score off singles doubles and triples.

Its not just Lance Berkman either, Look at other players who are these top RBI guys. Dunn is the worst of them all. Yet we are ready to pay more money than other guys that are better than him?

[AtomicDumpling]

Because he kills rallies by getting out at a ridiculous rate... You guys all want to look at numbers but you never seem to want to compare them with anything. Building a team of Adam Dunns will not win you games.

Since you are new to the board you may not know that we actually check facts here.

Dunn is one of the least likely of the Reds to make an out. Only Hatteberg and Griffey are less likely than Dunn to make an out. Dunn's on-base % proves that he is 3rd-most likely on the team to get on base (same as avoiding an out).

How is that "getting out at a ridiculous rate"?

OB%
.406 Hatteberg
.385 Griffey
.365 Dunn
.334 Encarnacion
.327 Phillips
.304 Freel
.297 Gonzalez
.247 Ross

Hatteberg's is so high because he only plays against right-handed pitchers:
.418 vs RH
.280 vs LH


Dunn's OB% actually improves with RISP:
.360 w/ bases empty
.371 w/ runners on base
.368 w/ RISP
.415 w/ RISP and 2 outs
.333 w/ bases loaded

That is pretty darn good. Turns out Dunn does quite well in those RBI situations doesn't it?

[Muggerd]

The only comparison I have read thus far is that Adam Dunn isn't Lance Berkman. Guess what? A very precious few in the game are. The heart of the Dunn criticism stems from exaggerrated hype and expectaions rather than actual production and evidence.

EDIT:

I guess it is conveniently left out that Dunn is out-pacing Berkman THIS YEAR in AVG., SLG., OPS, R, HR, RBI, and SB. But yeah, Dunn didn't have a good of year last year as one of the best hitters in baseball. Shame on him.

Dunn is having his best year yes, i wont dispute that.

[Muggerd]

Dunn OBP means nothing to me if there are guys on 2nd and/or 3rd. Considering he walks so much.

[AtomicDumpling]

Dunns OPS is higher because he would rather take a walk than hit with someone on base.

Dunn's OPS is higher because the pitcher would rather walk him than give him a pitch to hit with someone on base.

[Fil3232]

I can't belive this needs to be argued any more, but...

(stats are before tonight's 3-3, BB performance)

Dunn with NOBODY on base:

.262 .360 .533 .893

Dunn with RUNNERS on base:

.265 .371 .581 .952

Dunn is a better hitter with runners on base this year. And because of his ability to slug, it really is moot if runners happen to be in scoring position.

[Blue]

He strikes out 33% of the time with someone on base, thats bad

He never gets a sac fly, thats bad.

He gets out more than any other top RBI in the majors with guys on base, thats bad.

What a joke. I think somehow, because baseball's first pro team was in Cincinnati, some of our fans think the game hasn't changed. Well, guess what? The ball has more consistency than a bean bag nowadays and you can hit line drives and home runs to increase the number of RBIs you have. (Such as, say, Adam Dunn, who, if you didn't know, is 7th in the league in RBIs.) He still manages to be 7th in the league in RBIs.

Adam Dunn.

Is.

Seventh (7th) in the league in RBIs.

In spite of the fact that he doesn't hit well with RISP, doesn't hit sac flies, and "strikes out too much". That pretty much destroys your entire argument.

[Muggerd]

Dunn's OPS is higher because the pitcher would rather walk him than give him a pitch to hit with someone on base.

Dunn walks at the same rate with someone on base as he does with no one on base. What the pitcher would rather do has nothing to do with it. Dunn should be looking for a pitch to hit instead of just taking the walk. The best RBI guys in the league find a way to hit with people on base why is it so hard for Dunn?

[Blue]

Dunn walks at the same rate with someone on base as he does with no one on base. What the pitcher would rather do has nothing to do with it. Dunn should be looking for a pitch to hit instead of just taking the walk. The best RBI guys in the league find a way to hit with people on base why is it so hard for Dunn?

but but but....

Dunn IS one of the best RBI guys in the league. (Someone should have pointed this out sooner.)

[Blue]

I can't belive this needs to be argued any more, but...

(stats are before tonight's 3-3, BB performance)

Dunn with NOBODY on base:

.262 .360 .533 .893

Dunn with RUNNERS on base:

.265 .371 .581 .952

Dunn is a better hitter with runners on base this year. And because of his ability to slug, it really is moot if runners happen to be in scoring position.

:laugh: nice catch.

[AtomicDumpling]

Dunn walks at the same rate with someone on base as he does with no one on base. What the pitcher would rather do has nothing to do with it. Dunn should be looking for a pitch to hit instead of just taking the walk. The best RBI guys in the league find a way to hit with people on base why is it so hard for Dunn?

Dunn is one of the best RBI guys in the league. That is why he is 7th in the league in RBIs.

Dunn is looking for a pitch to hit and when he doesn't get one he walks.

You don't get base hits by swinging at balls. That is how you make outs.

[Fil3232]

Exaggerated hype that you guys seem to want to push. Show me another 40 home run guy that is bad as dunn in situations with someone on base? You dont think the solo homers are replaceable with someone who is much more likely to get a runner in from 2nd? If the game only counted home runs then Dunn would be key but sadly for the Reds they also count runs that score off singles doubles and triples.

Its not just Lance Berkman either, Look at other players who are these top RBI guys. Dunn is the worst of them all. Yet we are ready to pay more money than other guys that are better than him?

No, the burden of proof appears to be on you. YOU show ME any evidence that backs up your claim. First, I want to see how Dunn's "solo HRs are replaceable with someone who is much more likely to get a runner in from 2nd" and also how Dunn is the "worst of all" the top RBI men (which seems akin to being the worst Brazilian on the national soccer team, or the worst Quarterback in Hawaii at the Pro Bowl).

[Muggerd]

What a joke. I think somehow, because baseball's first pro team was in Cincinnati, some of our fans think the game hasn't changed. Well, guess what? The ball has more consistency than a bean bag nowadays and you can hit line drives and home runs to increase the number of RBIs you have. (Such as, say, Adam Dunn, who, if you didn't know, is 7th in the league in RBIs.) He still manages to be 7th in the league in RBIs.

Adam Dunn.

Is.

Seventh (7th) in the league in RBIs.

In spite of the fact that he doesn't hit well with RISP, doesn't hit sac flies, and "strikes out too much". That pretty much destroys your entire argument.

My arguement is that even with those bad numbers he is still 7th that acutally supports my case that the RBIs can be replaced. Maybe not all of them but not enough to hurt this teams chances of winning. Better Bullpen = less runs you need to score. Its quite obvious this teams problem is the bullpen. My whole thing is Id rather spend the Dunn money on the reds weaknesses not spend more money on the reds strengths. Scoring more and more runs while your bullpen is giving up more and more doesnt do much for your win loss column. The reds score plenty of runs to win and losing maybe 20 runs over the course of a season isnt goin to hurt them as much as you guys think.

[Muggerd]

Dunn is one of the best RBI guys in the league. That is why he is 7th in the league in RBIs.

Dunn is looking for a pitch to hit and when he doesn't get one he walks.

You don't get base hits by swinging at balls. That is how you make outs.

Some how Aramis Ramirez finds balls to hit. Some how Ryan Howard finds balls to hit. Some how Berkman finds balls to hit. Some how Carlos Lee finds balls to hit. Dunn needs to learn how to hit the pitches hes thrown not wait for his pitch. Pitchers are not going to give Dunn his pitch, just like pitchers dont give the other guys pitches they can hit out of the park.

[Muggerd]

but but but....

Dunn IS one of the best RBI guys in the league. (Someone should have pointed this out sooner.)

This year yes dunn is one of the best RBI guys in the league. How was he in 2006, 2005, 2004?

[Muggerd]

No, the burden of proof appears to be on you. YOU show ME any evidence that backs up your claim. First, I want to see how Dunn's "solo HRs are replaceable with someone who is much more likely to get a runner in from 2nd" and also how Dunn is the "worst of all" the top RBI men (which seems akin to being the worst Brazilian on the national soccer team, or the worst Quarterback in Hawaii at the Pro Bowl).

Its not my fault you cant look up the stats for yourself. Oh wow you copy and pasted OBP. Great in depth researching there. Take some time. I dont feel like posting pages of stats so you guys can just say "but he scores 100 runs"

[Fil3232]

My arguement is that even with those bad numbers he is still 7th that acutally supports my case that the RBIs can be replaced. Maybe not all of them but not enough to hurt this teams chances of winning. Better Bullpen = less runs you need to score. Its quite obvious this teams problem is the bullpen. My whole thing is Id rather spend the Dunn money on the reds weaknesses not spend more money on the reds strengths. Scoring more and more runs while your bullpen is giving up more and more doesnt do much for your win loss column. The reds score plenty of runs to win and losing maybe 20 runs over the course of a season isnt goin to hurt them as much as you guys think.

If the conversation is only about the bullpen needing to improve, along with the rest of the pitching, I'm completely on board. That can be argued without trying to convince others that Dunn isn't a run producer.

Can the Reds re-allocate Dunn's money elsewhere and improve the club? Maybe. But what I suspect will happen will be that the Reds find replacing Dunn a whole heck of a lot harder than they thought and therefore, 10-13 million a year for a player of Dunn's ilk really is the right market value. What I think the Reds would be wise to do would involve unloading Jr.'s contract and finding pay flex from that. Also, additional play flex could be gained from moving Hatteberg, Conine, Stanton, and Weathers.

[AtomicDumpling]

My arguement is that even with those bad numbers he is still 7th that acutally supports my case that the RBIs can be replaced. Maybe not all of them but not enough to hurt this teams chances of winning. Better Bullpen = less runs you need to score. Its quite obvious this teams problem is the bullpen. My whole thing is Id rather spend the Dunn money on the reds weaknesses not spend more money on the reds strengths. Scoring more and more runs while your bullpen is giving up more and more doesnt do much for your win loss column. The reds score plenty of runs to win and losing maybe 20 runs over the course of a season isnt goin to hurt them as much as you guys think.

If you want to spend more money on the bullpen all you have to do is spend more money on the bullpen. The cheapskate Lindner years are over. You find a good deal on a pitcher you take it. Dunn doesn't have anything to do with the bullpen.

If you want to be a cheapskate and cut payroll, then you cut the players that are not earning their salaries. You keep the good players. You don't get better by getting rid of your good players. It really is as simple as that.

The Reds are not going to fix the bullpen by spending a bunch of money on free agent relievers. It will not work. What good free agents will be available this offseason and how much will they cost? Until that question is answered I won't buy the argument we should ditch Dunn to spend his salary on the bullpen. It is not feasible and is not going to be successful.

[Fil3232]

Its not my fault you cant look up the stats for yourself. Oh wow you copy and pasted OBP. Great in depth researching there. Take some time. I dont feel like posting pages of stats so you guys can just say "but he scores 100 runs"


Oh, I can look up stats. In fact I have presented stats showing Dunn is a better hitter with runners on than with nobody on. Yet, you keep wanting to harp on Batting Avg. with RISP, a stat that has been shown to be so completely useless in the grand scheme of things that it's silly even still having this debate. I think you are the one who needs to do some "great in-depth researching."

[Muggerd]

If the conversation is only about the bullpen needing to improve, along with the rest of the pitching, I'm completely on board. That can be argued without trying to convince others that Dunn isn't a run producer.

Can the Reds re-allocate Dunn's money elsewhere and improve the club? Maybe. But what I suspect will happen will be that the Reds find replacing Dunn a whole heck of a lot harder than they thought and therefore, 10-13 million a year for a player of Dunn's ilk really is the right market value. What I think the Reds would be wise to do would involve unloading Jr.'s contract and finding pay flex from that. Also, additional play flex could be gained from moving Hatteberg, Conine, Stanton, and Weathers.

I havent said Dunn isnt a run producer. Im simply saying hes not the run producer you all are making him out to be. The Reds would be better over the course of a season with Dunns money spent on bullpen. Sure if they spent more money Dunn would be fine to keep. Im saying the RBIs are there to be taken no matter whos at bat. The guys that Dunn drives in dont just stop getting on base they are still going to be there. Sure we might score less runs but will the 13 million stop the other team from scoring more? This isnt a team that has problems scoring runs. We are normally near the top every year. Just like we are normally near the bottom in team ERA.

If we could spend 20 million more in the off season great keep dunn and fill the holes but do you really see this teams management doing that?

[Muggerd]

Oh, I can look up stats. In fact I have presented stats showing Dunn is a better hitter with runners on than with nobody on. Yet, you keep wanting to harp on Batting Avg. with RISP, a stat that has been shown to be so completely useless in the grand scheme of things that it's silly even still having this debate. I think you are the one who needs to do some "great in-depth researching."

Hes not a better hitter with runners on. Hes worse. His OBP is better but he strikes out more, and his BA is worse. He just takes the walks and is happy.

[Muggerd]

If you want to spend more money on the bullpen all you have to do is spend more money on the bullpen. The cheapskate Lindner years are over. You find a good deal on a pitcher you take it. Dunn doesn't have anything to do with the bullpen.

If you want to be a cheapskate and cut payroll, then you cut the players that are not earning their salaries. You keep the good players. You don't get better by getting rid of your good players. It really is as simple as that.

The Reds are not going to fix the bullpen by spending a bunch of money on free agent relievers. It will not work. What good free agents will be available this offseason and how much will they cost? Until that question is answered I won't buy the argument we should ditch Dunn to spend his salary on the bullpen. It is not feasible and is not going to be successful.

If you base Dunns yearly stats over the last few years with other players making as much money as him to be the big RBI we are getting completely ripped off.

[AtomicDumpling]

Its not my fault you cant look up the stats for yourself. Oh wow you copy and pasted OBP. Great in depth researching there. Take some time. I dont feel like posting pages of stats so you guys can just say "but he scores 100 runs"

If you continue making outlandish claims then you should show some data to support them. Otherwise it is just spouting off.

If the data supports your claims then we have a basis to continue the discussion. It seems to me that all the data in this thread refutes your assertions.

The facts are that Dunn is near the top of the league in RBI and runs scored every year since he became a full time player. If you disagree then prove us wrong. Data speaks louder than words.

His production is very good with or without runners on base or RISP. If you disagree than prove us wrong.

[Muggerd]

If you continue making outlandish claims then you should show some data to support them. Otherwise it is just spouting off.

If the data supports your claims then we have a basis to continue the discussion. It seems to me that all the data in this thread refutes your assertions.

The facts are that Dunn is near the top of the league in RBI and runs scored every year since he became a full time player. If you disagree then prove us wrong. Data speaks louder than words.

His production is very good with or without runners on base or RISP. If you disagree than prove us wrong.
What do you consider near the top? being 15th isnt amazing. Sure its nice but is the difference of 20 RBIs most of the time.

[Muggerd]

Alright guys its been a good night of argueing here. My whole arguement is comming down to money and what we get in return for his salary. I just dont feel like its as much as hes worth when you consider the other players in the league and the major flaws in this reds team.

[Degenerate39]

Alright guys its been a good night of argueing here. My whole arguement is comming down to money and what we get in return for his salary. I just dont feel like its as much as hes worth when you consider the other players in the league and the major flaws in this reds team.

13 million dollars for a 40 home run guy is cheap.

[AtomicDumpling]

If you base Dunns yearly stats over the last few years with other players making as much money as him to be the big RBI we are getting completely ripped off.

Got some data to back that up?

Dunn is not being paid to be the big RBI guy. He is being paid to be a complete ball player. There is more to his value than RBIs. He scores runs too. Who is the guy scoring the run when the other Reds drive in a run? Adam Dunn usually. Not only does he get 100 RBIs he also gets 100 runs scored. Doesn't that have value?

He has a good OBP, which means he gets on base to create or extend rallies and give the other players a chance to hit and bring in runs. He sees a lot of pitches per plate appearance, which means the opposing pitcher tires faster and gives the Reds a better chance to succeed. He is a good baserunner that doesn't get thrown out on the basepaths very often (like Freel does). He does an acceptable job in left field, which is a more valuable position than 1B or DH. He plays every day and doesn't get hurt.

If the Reds don't pick up his option year, Dunn will make much more money on the free agent market. That means he is a bargain at his current contract's salary. What other free agent slugger with similar production could we obtain for a lower salary? Until you can answer that question you won't convince anyone that Dunn isn't worth his salary.

[Muggerd]

13 million dollars for a 40 home run guy is cheap.

Home Runs mean squat.

[AtomicDumpling]

Home Runs mean squat.

Right. That is why home run hitters are so cheap on the free agent market. :help:

[Degenerate39]

Home Runs mean squat.

Then BA with RISP mean squat.

[Muggerd]

Got some data to back that up?

Dunn is not being paid to be the big RBI guy. He is being paid to be a complete ball player. There is more to his value than RBIs. He scores runs too. Who is the guy scoring the run when the other Reds drive in a run? Adam Dunn usually. Not only does he get 100 RBIs he also gets 100 runs scored. Doesn't that have value?

He has a good OBP, which means he gets on base to create or extend rallies and give the other players a chance to hit and bring in runs. He sees a lot of pitches per plate appearance, which means the opposing pitcher tires faster and gives the Reds a better chance to succeed. He is a good baserunner that doesn't get thrown out on the basepaths very often (like Freel does). He does an acceptable job in left field, which is a more valuable position than 1B or DH. He plays every day and doesn't get hurt.

If the Reds don't pick up his option year, Dunn will make much more money on the free agent market. That means he is a bargain at his current contract's salary. What other free agent slugger with similar production could we obtain for a lower salary? Until you can answer that question you won't convince anyone that Dunn isn't worth his salary.

Listen i dont feel like copy and pasting all the top RBI guys salaries but you can click and look for yourself.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting?sort=RBIs&split=0&league=nl&season=2006&seasonType=2&type=reg&ageMin=17&ageMax=51&minpa=0&hand=a&pos=all
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting?sort=RBIs&split=0&league=nl&season=2005&seasonType=2&type=reg&ageMin=17&ageMax=51&minpa=0&hand=a&pos=all

thats the 2005 and 2006 seasons if you feel like looking for yourself.

[Muggerd]

Right. That is why home run hitters are so cheap on the free agent market. :help:

No home run hitters arent cheap beacuse they get RBIs the home run total really has no effect on thier market value. Its the RBIs.

[Muggerd]

Then BA with RISP mean squat.

I dont see how you can connect those 2 but ok.

[Degenerate39]

I dont see how you can connect those 2 but ok.

Because home runs can score the runners that are on the bases...

[AmarilloRed]

It always comes down to this question: Who else can you find to give you 40 hrs, 90-1oo rbi , 100 runs for less than 13 million? I am not a huge fan of Dunn, but I am a reasonable fellow. Give me someone else who can get 30 hr and 80 rbis in Dunn's place, and I will gladly trade him. Unfortunately, we have no outfield prospects coming for at least several years and anyone in free agency will be more expensive. Dunn is our only option for now. Go ahead and pick up the 13 million option.

[AtomicDumpling]

Listen i dont feel like copy and pasting all the top RBI guys salaries but you can click and look for yourself.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting?sort=RBIs&split=0&league=nl&season=2006&seasonType=2&type=reg&ageMin=17&ageMax=51&minpa=0&hand=a&pos=all
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting?sort=RBIs&split=0&league=nl&season=2005&seasonType=2&type=reg&ageMin=17&ageMax=51&minpa=0&hand=a&pos=all

thats the 2005 and 2006 seasons if you feel like looking for yourself.

That shows me that Dunn's salary is lower than almost all of them for those years. The only ones that were cheaper were the guys in their first couple of seasons that haven't qualified for arbitration yet.

Notice how very few of them also matched Dunn in the runs scored category?

This shows that Dunn has been quite a bargain so far in his career. His salary next year will also be far below market rate for a player of his caliber.

If you put Dunn on the Philllies, Marlins, Brewers, Rockies etc. he would have much better hitters before and after him. Therefore he would have more RBI opportunities (hence more RBI) and would also be driven in more often by the players hitting behind him (hence more runs scored).

[Degenerate39]

It always comes down to this question: Who else can you find to give you 40 hrs, 90-1oo rbi , 100 runs for less than 13 million? I am not a huge fan of Dunn, but I am a reasonable fellow. Give me someone else who can get 30 hr and 80 rbis in Dunn's place, and I will gladly trade him. Unfortunately, we have no outfield prospects coming for at least several years and anyone in free agency will be more expensive. Dunn is our only option for now. Go ahead and pick up the 13 million option.

Bruce will be up I'd say late 08 or opening day of 09. I'm sure he'll be replacing Griffey in 09. Griff should be 40 if I'm correct. We still don't know if Hamilton is going to pan out so he's a big question mark. I'm guessing Drew Stubbs will be around in the majors in 2009 or 2010 but I don't know a how lot about Stubbs so don't hold me to that. So you are right Dunn is the only option for now. When Stubbs, Hamilton, and Bruce are ready I'd be willing to trade Dunn but until then keep him.

[AtomicDumpling]

Stubbs has been terrible in the minors so far. I would say right now he is at least 4 years away and unless he really starts to improve he may never make the majors.

I agree that Bruce will become worthy of a starting position on the Reds in 2009 or late 2008. We may see Bruce in Cincy this September. My guess is the 2009 outfield will be Dunn, Hamilton and Bruce. Dunn or Griffey could be moved to first base by then though. It all depends on how Votto performs this year and next for the Reds. If he does well then the Reds might trade Dunn or Griffey next year.

[Degenerate39]

Stubbs has been terrible in the minors so far. I would say right now he is at least 4 years away and unless he really starts to improve he may never make the majors.

Again I don't know much about Stubbs nor do I follow him but he's probably one of the biggest names in the farm system. Sure he's no Votto, Bailey, Bruce but from the little I've read he's a good fielder and his bat just hasn't came around yet. I know in college he was good at stealing bases so he could possibly be a good leadoff hitter who plays center.


My guess is the 2009 outfield will be Dunn, Hamilton and Bruce. Dunn or Griffey could be moved to first base by then though. It all depends on how Votto performs this year and next for the Reds. If he does well then the Reds might trade Dunn or Griffey next year.

If Votto isn't what everyone expects then I would def. like to see Griffey play some first base. So the Reds could still have 4 good power hitters.

[AtomicDumpling]

I hope you are right about Stubbs. We can't afford a 1st round pick to be a flop.

I agree that Griffey is likely to see some time at 1B in the next few years.

[Chi-Town Red]

Stubbs is really improved as of late...he is finally coming around after an injury.

[Screwball]

Home Runs mean squat.

:rolleyes:


No home run hitters arent cheap beacuse they get RBIs the home run total really has no effect on thier market value. Its the RBIs.

This may be the most ridiculous line of thinking I've heard in a while. It's analogous to saying "The sun doesn't mean squat. It's the light and the warmth we get from the sun that has value."

While yes, RBIs are an important stat, a big source of those RBIs are home runs. This is very important because the player hitting the home runs doesn't need to rely on so many extraneous factors to score himself and other teammates (i.e. - runners actually getting on in front of him, being in position to score, being fast enough to score when the ball is in play, no base running blunders, great defense, etc.).

Home runs (or a player's power) are very important in baseball. That's why slugging % is so highly correlated to runs scored. Denying that is simply denying the facts.

[Muggerd]

That shows me that Dunn's salary is lower than almost all of them for those years. The only ones that were cheaper were the guys in their first couple of seasons that haven't qualified for arbitration yet.

Notice how very few of them also matched Dunn in the runs scored category?

This shows that Dunn has been quite a bargain so far in his career. His salary next year will also be far below market rate for a player of his caliber.

If you put Dunn on the Philllies, Marlins, Brewers, Rockies etc. he would have much better hitters before and after him. Therefore he would have more RBI opportunities (hence more RBI) and would also be driven in more often by the players hitting behind him (hence more runs scored).
look at his ABs with runners on compared to those other players. The amount of ABs are nearly the same. Dont give me the the other guys get more chances stuff.

My point is look at what dunn is giving us compared to what other guys with comparable stats are giving their team. If Dunn was making 9 million or less id keep him but why do we have to be the team that ends up giving him that contract? I dont really feel comfortable giving a guy that strikes out 1/3 of his times at the plate 13+ for years, and if we can improve the bullpen with that money sign me up.

This teams problem isnt scoring runs. I really doubt it ever will be in GABP. To me its simple, we need a leadoff guy, some bullpen and some starting pitching.

Dunn simply needs to be a better hitter. Taking a walk with someone in scoring position is almost worthless. Show some ability to make some contact and hit the pitches you are given. He needs to hit those base runners in not just get on and let the next guy do it. Thats where the BA comes into play.

[Muggerd]

:rolleyes:



This may be the most ridiculous line of thinking I've heard in a while. It's analogous to saying "The sun doesn't mean squat. It's the light and the warmth we get from the sun that has value."

While yes, RBIs are an important stat, a big source of those RBIs are home runs. This is very important because the player hitting the home runs doesn't need to rely on so many extraneous factors to score himself and other teammates (i.e. - runners actually getting on in front of him, being in position to score, being fast enough to score when the ball is in play, no base running blunders, great defense, etc.).

Home runs (or a player's power) are very important in baseball. That's why slugging % is so highly correlated to runs scored. Denying that is simply denying the facts.

You misunderstood me. A home run doesnt mean much in the long run of things. A guy could hit 40 solo homers is he worth a lot? No its the guy that ends up getting more RBIS at the end of the year that will make more money. Power numbers of course matter but just because a player can hit 40 home runs doesnt mean he should make a bunch of money.

[improbus]

My biggest problem with Dunn is his inconsistency. When he goes into one of his funks, the Reds lose and lose big time. Nobody quite goes into a funk like Adam Dunn. Last year, the Reds were fighting for a playoff spot, and in August he hit .181 w/ an OPS of .700 and in Sept./Oct. he it .161 w/ and OPS of .594. When he goes bad, he's the worst player on the team. He's hit .200 or lower over 8 different months during his career (not including the time he was hurt in '03). Junior has had two such months in his entire career, one his rookie year, and last July (the two others contained less than 6 games due to injury). Even the uber-streaky Andruw Jones has only had 6 months at .200 or lower (in seven more years of playing). That is a HUGE problem.
So, I know that Dunn's numbers always even themselves out in the end, but baseball is a game of grinding and a game of consistency. NOT all numbers are the same. There is definitely a reason the Reds have had good halves and terrible halves (aside from the pitching)

[Muggerd]

My biggest problem with Dunn is his inconsistency. When he goes into one of his funks, the Reds lose and lose big time. Nobody quite goes into a funk like Adam Dunn. Last year, the Reds were fighting for a playoff spot, and in August he hit .181 w/ an OPS of .700 and in Sept./Oct. he it .161 w/ and OPS of .594. When he goes bad, he's the worst player on the team. He's hit .200 or lower over 8 different months during his career (not including the time he was hurt in '03). Junior has had two such months in his entire career, one his rookie year, and last July (the two others contained less than 6 games due to injury). Even the uber-streaky Andruw Jones has only had 6 months at .200 or lower (in seven more years of playing). That is a HUGE problem.
So, I know that Dunn's numbers always even themselves out in the end, but baseball is a game of grinding and a game of consistency. NOT all numbers are the same. There is definitely a reason the Reds have had good halves and terrible halves (aside from the pitching)

I totally agree with you. I have been trying to say this the whole time but in just different words. For as how many games Dunn might win you i think he loses you even more through his inconstancy. Do we need Dunn getting 10 rbis in a week and then 0 for the next week? Give me a team of constistant players and ill show you a good ball team.

[BLEEDS]

Dunn is one of the best RBI guys in the league. That is why he is 7th in the league in RBIs.

Dunn is looking for a pitch to hit and when he doesn't get one he walks.

You don't get base hits by swinging at balls. That is how you make outs.

DING DING DING!!! WE have a Winner!

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[AtomicDumpling]

Many people want to tell us Adam Dunn chokes in the clutch. The only problem with that is it is not true. I think they listen to the poofy-haired fancy boy whine too much. Marty is a Dunn-hater and doesn't let the facts get in the way of his opinion.

Here are the facts:

.269 BA w/bases empty
.269 BA w/runners on base

.909 OPS w/bases empty
.961 OPS w/runners on base

Seen any evidence of choking yet? Seems pretty good in the clutch to me.

.256 BA w/bases empty and 0 outs
.283 BA w/runners on and 2 outs
.333 BA w/runner on 3rd and less than 2 outs

.794 OPS w/bases empty and 0 outs
1.093 OPS w/runners on and 2 outs
.883 OPS w/runner on 3rd and less than 2 outs

Again, Dunn's stats get better in clutch situations.

[Muggerd]

You know what? Getting a 2 out walk does nothing for scoring guys unless the bases are loaded. We arent talking about being clutch we are talking about being a consistant ball player. You keep looking at Dunns stats but you dont look at the other guys that are tops in the league with RBIs stats in the situations. No one in this thread has said Dunn isnt having a good year. Look at his career numbers they are weak in comparison to the other players you would expect him to be with.

For as quick as you guys want to keep saying THIS year stats you say how Dunn had an off year the year before. Look at some other stats instead of the ones that just work the best for you.

[AtomicDumpling]

You know what? Getting a 2 out walk does nothing for scoring guys unless the bases are loaded. We arent talking about being clutch we are talking about being a consistant ball player. You keep looking at Dunns stats but you dont look at the other guys that are tops in the league with RBIs stats in the situations. No one in this thread has said Dunn isnt having a good year. Look at his career numbers they are weak in comparison to the other players you would expect him to be with.

For as quick as you guys want to keep saying THIS year stats you say how Dunn had an off year the year before. Look at some other stats instead of the ones that just work the best for you.

LOL

As we have shown over and over, Dunn has very good stats in clutch situations. He has very good stats in non-clutch situations. He is near the top of the league in runs scored and RBI every year.

It doesn't matter what season you look at. Dunn's career OPS values are .850+ in every situational scenario. You can't argue with the facts guy. The Dunn haters claim he chokes in the clutch. The numbers prove them wrong.

Nobody is saying Dunn is the best player in the league. He is not A-Rod or Pujols. He will not make the Hall of Fame. He isn't going to win the MVP award. But he has been the Reds' most productive player every single season since he arrived. This is true despite the strikeouts. He is one of the most productive players in the league every year.

[Muggerd]

LOL

As we have shown over and over, Dunn has very good stats in clutch situations. He has very good stats in non-clutch situations. He is near the top of the league in runs scored and RBI every year.

It doesn't matter what season you look at. Dunn's career OPS values are .850+ in every situational scenario. You can't argue with the facts guy. The Dunn haters claim he chokes in the clutch. The numbers prove them wrong.

Nobody is saying Dunn is the best player in the league. He is not A-Rod or Pujols. He will not make the Hall of Fame. He isn't going to win the MVP award. But he has been the Reds' most productive player every single season since he arrived. This is true despite the strikeouts. He is one of the most productive players in the league every year.

Sweet hes not Pujols, Berkman or Lee but you want to pay him those type of players money?

[AtomicDumpling]

Sweet hes not Pujols, Berkman or Lee but you want to pay him those type of players money?

He will get a contract similar to that of Lee and Berkman because he is the same level of player as them, only younger with more upside. Pujols got $100 million from the Cards when they bought out his arbitration years.

Players of Dunn's caliber are not cheap. The Reds have to pay players the market rate. If they don't they will end up perennial losers like the Devil Rays. The cheapskate Lindner days are over. The Reds can afford several star players like they have in the past. In the past though their star players with big salaries did not perform like stars. Milton sucked. Griffey was hurt. Their salaries are coming off the books. We will have millions more from the expiring contracts of Cormier, LaRue (still paying them), Hatteberg, Conine, Castro and whomever gets traded. Dumping Dunn because you don't want to pay Dunn the market rate is foolish.

[Muggerd]

He will get a contract similar to that of Lee and Berkman because he is the same level of player as them, only younger with more upside. Pujols got $100 million from the Cards when they bought out his arbitration years.

Players of Dunn's caliber are not cheap. The Reds have to pay players the market rate. If they don't they will end up perennial losers like the Devil Rays. The cheapskate Lindner days are over. The Reds can afford several star players like they have in the past. In the past though their star players with big salaries did not perform like stars. Milton sucked. Griffey was hurt. Their salaries are coming off the books. We will have millions more from the expiring contracts of Cormier, LaRue (still paying them), Hatteberg, Conine, Castro and whomever gets traded. Dumping Dunn because you don't want to pay Dunn the market rate is foolish.

I want to dump dunn beacause paying him a long term deal handcuffs the reds when it comes to fixing their problems. He doesnt have as much upside if you ask me. Hes had worse stats than all those guys every year. Hes comparable but hes not better or has shown no major improvement.

Its simple if keeping dunn stops us from getting pitching then i will not be happy. I dont see this team increasing payroll that much and keeping dunn and improving. Dunn might very well be the best guy on this team in runs but we have to do something to improve this team and that is not giving our strengths more money and not fixing our problems by ignoring them.

Id be happy with keeping dunn if we can afford it but i still say he will get overpaid and im not too sure if i like that just to keep him around. Some times you have to try other things because leading the league in homers scoring a bunch of runs and having a bad pitching staff isnt working for us.

[AtomicDumpling]

As has been shown before, getting rid of Adam Dunn does not improve the pitching staff. You don't improve your team by getting rid of your best player.

What free agent pitchers will we be able to acquire using Dunn's salary?

$13 million won't fix the pitching. There aren't going to be any quality free agent pitchers this winter except possibly for Carlos Zambrano, and he will command a huge salary far in excess of Adam Dunn's. The Reds will not be able to fix the pitching by throwing money at it this offseason.

[Muggerd]

As has been shown before, getting rid of Adam Dunn does not improve the pitching staff. You don't improve your team by getting rid of your best player.

What free agent pitchers will we be able to acquire using Dunn's salary?

$13 million won't fix the pitching. There aren't going to be any quality free agent pitchers this winter except possibly for Carlos Zambrano, and he will command a huge salary far in excess of Adam Dunn's. The Reds will not be able to fix the pitching by throwing money at it this offseason.

Im not saying getting rid of adam dunn improves the pitching staff, im not even sure on how you even get to thinking that. Im not the GM its not my job to find pitching. If Wayne cant improve this pitching staff with 25-30 million this off season he needs to be let go also. The reds arent the redsox we cant afford to keep dunn and then sign more pitching on top of him.

We are talking about a reds team who scores enough runs as it is. Why cant we give up a few runs for a better pitching staff. Maybe im just crazy but id rather have too much pitching and try to find a bat than have too much hitting and then try to find an arm.

[AtomicDumpling]

Sweet hes not Pujols, Berkman or Lee but you want to pay him those type of players money?


G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS

94 334 52 86 11 1 15 61 62 80 5 3 .257 .379 .431 .810 Berkman
100 353 63 95 18 2 27 67 56 120 8 2 .269 .371 .561 .932


Berkman
334 AB
52 runs
15 homers
61 RBI
.257 BA
.379 OBP
.431 SLG
.810 OPS


Dunn
353 AB
63 runs
27 homers
67 RBI
.269 BA
.371 OBP
.561 SLG
.932 OPS

Dunn is clearly performing much better than Berkman.

You didn't say which Lee you were referring too. Dunn's numbers are better than both Carlos and Derrek in terms of runs scored, homers, and OPS. Dunn has many more RBI than Derek and fewer than Carlos. So Dunn is clearly in the range of both Lees and Berkman in terms of production, talent and value. Dunn is much younger with more long-term upside. So it makes sense that he will earn at least a similar salary on the open market of about $15+ million (without even accounting for salary inflation, which they always do). His salary for next year is only $13 million, so it is a bargain that the Reds should pick up.

[Muggerd]

G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS

94 334 52 86 11 1 15 61 62 80 5 3 .257 .379 .431 .810 Berkman
100 353 63 95 18 2 27 67 56 120 8 2 .269 .371 .561 .932


Berkman
334 AB
52 runs
15 homers
61 RBI
.257 BA
.379 OBP
.431 SLG
.810 OPS


Dunn
353 AB
63 runs
27 homers
67 RBI
.269 BA
.371 OBP
.561 SLG
.932 OPS

Dunn is clearly performing much better than Berkman.

You didn't say which Lee you were referring too. Dunn's numbers are better than both Carlos and Derrek in terms of runs scored, homers, and OPS. Dunn has many more RBI than Derek and fewer than Carlos. So Dunn is clearly in the range of both Lees and Berkman in terms of production, talent and value. Dunn is much younger with more long-term upside. So it makes sense that he will earn at least a similar salary on the open market of about $15+ million (without even accounting for salary inflation, which they always do). His salary for next year is only $13 million, so it is a bargain that the Reds should pick up.

Stop only looking at this years stats please for once. Look at years past please also.

[BLEEDS]

Im not saying getting rid of adam dunn improves the pitching staff, im not even sure on how you even get to thinking that. Im not the GM its not my job to find pitching. If Wayne cant improve this pitching staff with 25-30 million this off season he needs to be let go also. The reds arent the redsox we cant afford to keep dunn and then sign more pitching on top of him.



It is pure Hogwash that the Reds can't keep Dunn AND spend $25-30M on pitching.

Replacing Dunn's production at the plate - is IMPOSSIBLE - for the same or less money. You will have to spend THE SAME AMOUNT OF MONEY that you are spending on Dunn this year, $10M, or more, to get LESS Production - Eric Byrnes, Aaron Roward.

Regardless, you will have the $$ to sign pitching. I've outlined it MANY times in previous posts. The payroll might increase to $80M, that's only ~$10M more than right now. $10M will get you a Central title, and competing for a Pennant. Period.

Milton's $10M, Conine/Hatte $3M savings (Their combined $3.5M - Votto's $500K), Stanton $2M, Lohse $4.2M, Saarloos $1.2M - these are salaries COMING OFF THE BOOKS. That's $20.3M savings right there. WITHOUT cutting Dunn.

You can spend all of that on C Zambrano, or get a Jason Jennings/Freddy Garcia for $10/12M or so, and spend the rest on a Closer (7-9M).
YOU HAVEN"T SPENT A DIME OF INCREASED PAYROLL YET.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[AtomicDumpling]

The Reds are not going to have a good pitching staff in the next few years. Since we know they are not going to have good pitching (see below) it only makes sense to try to score more runs than our poor pitching will allow. Getting rid of Dunn won't improve the pitching, but will certainly harm our ability to score runs.

The only good pitcher on the market this winter will be Carlos Zambrano, providing he doesn't re-sign with the Cubs during the season. Zambrano will command a very high price of $60-100 million, probably $20 million per year if he hits the open market. The Reds are not going to sign him, agreed?

Who else is going to be available?

Teams don't allow good pitcher to hit the open market anymore. The few that do are able to get huge salaries far in excess of their value (see Gil Meche $55 million, career ERA 4.52).

The Reds will not fix their pitching staff by spending Dunn's salary on the free agent market. Not going to happen.

The Reds will have to do what other teams have done -- draft well, trade for good prospects, and develop them. That takes time. Until then they will have to put tons of runs on the scoreboard if they want to win games.

[BLEEDS]

AND - another WORTHLESS hit without RISP Dunn had in the 10th eh? Nobody was on base, so his RISP goes down.

Add another Run to his stats though. The Winning Run in this case...

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[Degenerate39]

Its simple if keeping dunn stops us from getting pitching then i will not be happy. I dont see this team increasing payroll that much and keeping dunn and improving. Dunn might very well be the best guy on this team in runs but we have to do something to improve this team and that is not giving our strengths more money and not fixing our problems by ignoring them.

If you get rid of Dunn then you have another problem. Norris Hopper and Ryan Freel are NOT going to replace Dunn's production. You're not going to get someone who can replace Dunn's production for less than 13 million dollars. Josh Hamilton isn't a sure thing. With Griffey's track record he could get hurt at any time he's not a sure thing. Norris Horris isn't even in the same league as Adam Dunn. Same thing applies to Ryan Freel.

[Degenerate39]

Nobody was on base, so his RISP goes down.

I'm pretty sure it doesn't affect BA with RISP if there's no one on base.

[Muggerd]

The Reds are not going to have a good pitching staff in the next few years. Since we know they are not going to have good pitching (see below) it only makes sense to try to score more runs than our poor pitching will allow. Getting rid of Dunn won't improve the pitching, but will certainly harm our ability to score runs.

The only good pitcher on the market this winter will be Carlos Zambrano, providing he doesn't re-sign with the Cubs during the season. Zambrano will command a very high price of $60-100 million, probably $20 million per year if he hits the open market. The Reds are not going to sign him, agreed?

Who else is going to be available?

Teams don't allow good pitcher to hit the open market anymore. The few that do are able to get huge salaries far in excess of their value (see Gil Meche $55 million, career ERA 4.52).

The Reds will not fix their pitching staff by spending Dunn's salary on the free agent market. Not going to happen.

The Reds will have to do what other teams have done -- draft well, trade for good prospects, and develop them. That takes time. Until then they will have to put tons of runs on the scoreboard if they want to win games.

How do you know we cant improve this staff? If wayne cant improve this staff with 30 million Wayne needs to be fired.

The idea of keeping dunn is moot then if the pitching staff isnt going to be good for years. Trade Dunn save the money get prospects and have them when we are ready to be a winning team then.

[Muggerd]

AND - another WORTHLESS hit without RISP Dunn had in the 10th eh? Nobody was on base, so his RISP goes down.

Add another Run to his stats though. The Winning Run in this case...

PEACE

-BLEEDS

You are amazing


PEACE

- MUGGERD

[Muggerd]

If you get rid of Dunn then you have another problem. Norris Hopper and Ryan Freel are NOT going to replace Dunn's production. You're not going to get someone who can replace Dunn's production for less than 13 million dollars. Josh Hamilton isn't a sure thing. With Griffey's track record he could get hurt at any time he's not a sure thing. Norris Horris isn't even in the same league as Adam Dunn. Same thing applies to Ryan Freel.

Id take an outfield of Hamilton, Griffey and Rowand or Byrnes if it means our pitching staff isnt the worst in the league AGAIN some how.

The reds have a lot of problems but scoring runs isnt one of them. Relying on the home run too much is a bit of a problem because it hurts our consistency but other than that, we should be able to give up some runs if that means we can get a better staff that isnt making us hold our breaths every night.

[Muggerd]

Also im not saying we can replace Dunns runs and rbi 1 for 1 but we still have a strong line up with out him.

[AtomicDumpling]

It is pure Hogwash that the Reds can't keep Dunn AND spend $25-30M on pitching.

Replacing Dunn's production at the plate - is IMPOSSIBLE - for the same or less money. You will have to spend THE SAME AMOUNT OF MONEY that you are spending on Dunn this year, $10M, or more, to get LESS Production - Eric Byrnes, Aaron Roward.

Regardless, you will have the $$ to sign pitching. I've outlined it MANY times in previous posts. The payroll might increase to $80M, that's only ~$10M more than right now. $10M will get you a Central title, and competing for a Pennant. Period.

Milton's $10M, Conine/Hatte $3M savings (Their combined $3.5M - Votto's $500K), Stanton $2M, Lohse $4.2M, Saarloos $1.2M - these are salaries COMING OFF THE BOOKS. That's $20.3M savings right there. WITHOUT cutting Dunn.

You can spend all of that on C Zambrano, or get a Jason Jennings/Freddy Garcia for $10/12M or so, and spend the rest on a Closer (7-9M).
YOU HAVEN"T SPENT A DIME OF INCREASED PAYROLL YET.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Great post that sums things up very nicely. Good job.

I believe you can add in the money coming off the books from Jason LaRue's contract and Rheal Cormier's contract too since we are still paying both of them this season. I assume also that we won't have Juan Castro's money on the team next year either. How much more does that give us to spend without increasing the payroll?

We need to draft a short sweet summary of your post that we can drop into any thread where someone plays the "we can't afford to keep Dunn" card.

The key to this whole scenario is not just how much money you have to spend, but whom you spend it on. Last year the money went to long term deals for Harang and Arroyo -- good job there. The Weathers re-signing has turned out well too. But Krivsky also spent many millions on pitchers like Lohse, Saarloos, Stanton, Cormier and Coffey -- those were all bad deals that cost the team dearly this season.

[BLEEDS]

You are amazing


PEACE

- MUGGERD

Also, don't forget his "looking to walk" at bat with runners on 1st and 2nd with two outs today. Went a little something like this:

Ball, Strike (foul), Strike (foul), Foul, Foul, Ball, Ball, Foul, Ball

He walks, putting TWO people in scoring position. Keppinger hits a single and drives in two. 4-2 Reds.



Do I have to mention his two 2 run HR's with a guy standing on 1st base in the last week? Two more "NON-SCORING RUNNERS IN POSITION" RBI's, 4 total....


You're right, this guy does NOTHING but hurt our offense.

12 game hitting streak too.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[Muggerd]

If you are going to quote these salaries at least make sure you get them all correct.

[Muggerd]

Also, don't forget his "looking to walk" at bat with runners on 1st and 2nd with two outs today. Went a little something like this:

Ball, Strike (foul), Strike (foul), Foul, Foul, Ball, Ball, Foul, Ball

He walks, putting TWO people in scoring position. Keppinger hits a single and drives in two. 4-2 Reds.

Do I have to mention his two 2 run HR's with a guy standing on 1st base? Two more "NON-SCORING RUNNERS IN POSITION" RBI's, 4 total....


You're right, this guy does NOTHING but hurt our offense.

12 game hitting streak too.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

He can look to walk all he wants if kepp is batting behind him because i trust Kepp to get a hit with someone on base more than i do dunn getting one.

[AtomicDumpling]

You missed the point. The point is if Dunn hadn't walked there then Keppinger's single would only have driven in one run instead of two. Dunn created an extra run for the team but won't earn a run scored or RBI for it. Many of the good things Dunn does don't show up in the stats.

[Muggerd]

You missed the point. The point is if Dunn hadn't walked there then Keppinger's single would only have driven in one run instead of two. Dunn created an extra run for the team but won't earn a run scored or RBI for it. Many of the good things Dunn does don't show up in the stats.
Yea i have no problem with Dunn taking a walk every time he bats. I was actually praying he walked because if he doesn't walk odds are hes going to strike out.

[AtomicDumpling]

Yea i have no problem with Dunn taking a walk every time he bats. I was actually praying he walked because if he doesn't walk odds are hes going to strike out.

I guess you aren't willing to have an intelligent conversation on the matter.

We have shown you that Dunn performs quite well in those situations. He hits better with runners on base than without in terms of average, on-base % and slugging %.

[BLEEDS]

I believe you can add in the money coming off the books from Jason LaRue's contract and Rheal Cormier's contract too since we are still paying both of them this season. I assume also that we won't have Juan Castro's money on the team next year either. How much more does that give us to spend without increasing the payroll?

We need to draft a short sweet summary of your post that we can drop into any thread where someone plays the "we can't afford to keep Dunn" card.



Here you go, just drop this link in:
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1415269&postcount=14

the lower half includes MY projected lineup for 2008.
I didn't include any of the "Dead Money" on players like Cormier or LaRue.
Actually my salaries were a litte off on that post - Valentin is due $1.3M in 2008 - but can be bought out for $75K. Ross is due $2.5M. I think Weathers is due more than $2.5M in 2008, Gonzalez is due $4.6M in 2008, etc.. but it's pretty darn close. $80M max and you can have all that, and a bag of chips.

Castro's due $1.1M next year, but can be bought out for $100K.

Like you said, it's not HOW MUCH, but WHERE it's spent. We actually have the LUXURY of having some AWESOME prospects come up to the Bigs and UPGRADE our team for <$500K. Bailey and/or Dumatrait. Bray/Maj, and the only 3 guys worth anything in the current bullpen - Burton, Couter, and Gosling - all CHEAP!!! Votto in 2008, and Bruce in 2009 to replace Griffey, also when Arroyo and Harang's bigger salaries kick in. It's all by Design.

The Reds will have MONEY and have a PLAN to keep their payroll intact.

SO, if we WANT to sign 2/3/4 BIG NAME Free Agents we can. I propose DUNN be one of them. Why spend $11M - to save $2M versus Dunn in 2008 - to get a Byrnes or Rowand? $2M savings for A HUGE LOSS in production. Makes no sense. IFF we were to get a Cordero or other SOLID, cheap Closer in return - and IFF we were committed to getting a SOLID FA LF-er, THEN I would trade Dunn. Otherwise, we build around him. It can be done. Without breaking the bank.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[BLEEDS]

If you are going to quote these salaries at least make sure you get them all correct.


which ones are you referrring to? All those salaries are their current year salaries. They AREN"T SIGNED for 2008. Hence, they are savings.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[Muggerd]

which ones are you referrring to? All those salaries are their current year salaries. They AREN"T SIGNED for 2008. Hence, they are savings.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Stanton is signed for next year at 3 million (1 mill raise), Harang is goign to be making 2.5 million more, Phillips will be getting a pretty substantial raise in pay, ross is gaining 900k or so in pay, Freel could earn a million in payroll (i didnt really look at the stipulations), and arroyo can also earn more money with performance. Castro has another year on his contract for 950k, gonzo is gaining about 1.2 million next year as well.

Thats probably 8 or so million (not included in what ever phillips ends up getting) we are going to also have to end up paying. You forgot to figure those into your little break down.

We also owe money to Chormier still. **edit nvm his money was an option for next year**

PEACE

-MUGGERD

[Muggerd]

I guess you aren't willing to have an intelligent conversation on the matter.

We have shown you that Dunn performs quite well in those situations. He hits better with runners on base than without in terms of average, on-base % and slugging %.

His average with RISP isnt good is OBP and slugging is decent but he still needs to learn how to take what the pitcher gives him. Taking a walk never gives you an RBI unless the bases are full. Dunn needs to raise his RISP BA and ill be fine with him. He has shown no true improvement in that category.

I want dunn to swing the bat and get rbis plain and simple i dont want to pay Dunn 13 million then probably 17+ for years after that.

If we can fit Dunn into this payroll fine keep him and pay him stud RBI guy money but if its Dunn or a better pitching staff im taking the pitching staff every day of the week.

[improbus]

Still, no one has addressed my problem, that when Dunn is bad he is horrible. Remember, entering last August the Reds were 3.5 games behind the Cards, above five-hundred, and had just bolstered the bullpen. The team had improved it's ERA from 5.21 in July to around 4.20 for the rest of the year. The Reds should have been better, alot better. But, when the chips were down, Dunn choked, BIG TIME. In August/Sept./Oct. he hit around .170 for the last two months, struck out 76 times, knocked in 21 runs (only 5 in Sept./Oct.). His Slugging Percentage was around .330, OPS around .650, and hit 9 home runs. Now, I'm not saying Dunn was the only one who chokes (I'm looking at you Brandon Phillips), but they could have made the playoffs. They SHOULD have made the playoffs. They're ERA was BETTER than the Cardinals down the stretch, and yet they didn't win. The more I look back on it, the more mad I get.

BTW, let's look at some other players who I've seen Dunn compared to over the same stretch.

August/Sept./Oct. Stats
Dunn .170, 9, 21, .650 OPS, 76 K's, 24 runs
Berkman .300, 17, 43, 1.085 OPS, 41 K's, 39 runs
Carlos Lee .310, 9, 34, .880 OPS, 26 K's, 39 runs
Andruw Jones .235, 18, 38, .930 OPS, 36 K's, 44 runs

and just for fun....
Ryan Howard .365, 23, 62, 1.260 OPS, 62 K's, 46 runs

You replace Dunn with Berkman, Lee, or Jones, you are talking a MINIMUM 15 run swing. That is huge over two months.

I guess what I'm saying is, we don't like Dunn much because we don't trust him.

[AtomicDumpling]

Still, no one has addressed my problem, that when Dunn is bad he is horrible. Remember, entering last August the Reds were 3.5 games behind the Cards, above five-hundred, and had just bolstered the bullpen. The team had improved it's ERA from 5.21 in July to around 4.20 for the rest of the year. The Reds should have been better, alot better. But, when the chips were down, Dunn choked, BIG TIME. In August/Sept./Oct. he hit around .170 for the last two months, struck out 76 times, knocked in 21 runs (only 5 in Sept./Oct.). His Slugging Percentage was around .330, OPS around .650, and hit 9 home runs. Now, I'm not saying Dunn was the only one who chokes (I'm looking at you Brandon Phillips), but they could have made the playoffs. They SHOULD have made the playoffs. They're ERA was BETTER than the Cardinals down the stretch, and yet they didn't win. The more I look back on it, the more mad I get.

BTW, let's look at some other players who I've seen Dunn compared to over the same stretch.

August/Sept./Oct. Stats
Dunn .170, 9, 21, .650 OPS, 76 K's, 24 runs
Berkman .300, 17, 43, 1.085 OPS, 41 K's, 39 runs
Carlos Lee .310, 9, 34, .880 OPS, 26 K's, 39 runs
Andruw Jones .235, 18, 38, .930 OPS, 36 K's, 44 runs

and just for fun....
Ryan Howard .365, 23, 62, 1.260 OPS, 62 K's, 46 runs

You replace Dunn with Berkman, Lee, or Jones, you are talking a MINIMUM 15 run swing. That is huge over two months.

I guess what I'm saying is, we don't like Dunn much because we don't trust him.

Last year the whole team went south late. They basically quit on Narron. Find some players that weren't horrible during that time.

You want to compare a tiny segment of Dunn's career when he was in a slump and extrapolate that to mean he sucks?

Dunn's numbers speak for themselves. He produces 100 runs scored and 100 RBIs every year. That is the epitome of consistency. You can't argue with the facts.

You can find a slump in everybody's history. Pujols was terrible early this year. Does that mean he sucks? Dunn was much better than Pujols this April, does that mean Dunn is better than Pujols? Of course not. Almost every hitter in the league was better than Pujols in April. You can dig up all their April stats and lay them out, but we still know Pujols is the best hitter in the NL. You can find all sorts of weird stuff if you take small sample sizes.

Surely the haters can do better than that...

[improbus]

Last year the whole team went south late. They basically quit on Narron. Find some players that weren't horrible during that time.

You want to compare a tiny segment of Dunn's career when he was in a slump and extrapolate that to mean he sucks?

Dunn's numbers speak for themselves. He produces 100 runs scored and 100 RBIs every year. That is the epitome of consistency. You can't argue with the facts.

You can find a slump in everybody's history. Pujols was terrible early this year. Does that mean he sucks? Dunn was much better than Pujols this April, does that mean Dunn is better than Pujols? Of course not. Almost every hitter in the league was better than Pujols in April. You can dig up all their April stats and lay them out, but we still know Pujols is the best hitter in the NL. You can find all sorts of weird stuff if you take small sample sizes.

Surely the haters can do better than that...

Pujols still had a .843 OPS in April, hit .250, and knocked in 15 runs, that's bad for him, but its not .170. And, not too many players have slumps that last for 2 months. 2 weeks, maybe even a month, but 2 months?

Imagine if Dunn played in NY and put up those clunkers. He would have been public enemy number one. But, he gets away with it because he plays in quiet Cincy. That was Dunn's big chance to come through, and he failed miserably.

Also, I've heard alot of people say that Dunn's plate discipline and his patient approach is one of his strengths as a hitter. Well, if you mean walks, then yes, you're right. His walk rate is tremendous. But as the pitches mount, he becomes a terrible hitter. He might be one the worst two strike sluggers I've ever seen.
after 0-2 count .129, .449 OPS
after 1-2 count .134, .504 OPS
after 2-2 count .164, .650 OPS
Full Count .193, .880 OPS

Now, I understand hitters averages drop when get 2 strikes, but not that dramatically.

Berkman
after 0-2 count .189, .614 OPS
after 1-2 count .179, .609 OPS
after 2-2 count .204, .706 OPS
Full Count .249, 1.021 OPS

Carlos Lee
after 0-2 count .187, .514 OPS
after 1-2 count .207, .543 OPS
after 2-2 count .229, .705 OPS
Full Count .233, .874 OPS

Andruw Jones = a little closer...
after 0-2 count .150, .454 OPS
after 1-2 count .167, .504 OPS
after 2-2 count .182, .592 OPS
Full Count .226, .922 OPS

[mound_patrol]

Can't believe I've read this whole thing. Sounds like its the Sundeck vs Muggerd.
Which by the way when did marty get an account on here and why did he chose the name Muggerd.

From what I get out of Muggerd is he thinks Dunn walks to much and K's too much. Last time I checked those two statistics where part of what makes up OPS.

As for his salary I personally feel 13 million is going to be a bargain after we see what Tex signs for. Just saw today Boras is going for 15 to 20 per year. Personally i'd take Dunn any day of the year over Texiera.

Another thing, his career avg w/ RISP is low but if I remember correctly his OPS is right around 900 still

[I(heart)Freel]

Whew.

Miss a day, miss a lot on RedZone.

I'm still catching up. But a couple quick points.

1) Whoever keeps saying the cheap Lindner years are over doesn't understand economics. Just because we have a new and emotionally invested owner doesn't mean we should reasonably expect that he's going to spend more than the team brings in. Really. That's just common sense. So understand that we're not suddenly going to bump up the payroll over (or even to) $80 million. Ain't happening.

2) Why would we have to spend the Dunn money on starting pitching. Seems to me we COULD go out and get a closer. And yes, there are a number of options on the free agent market this winter for that need. Imagine a real closer on this year's club, slotting Weathers as the 8th inning man and then everyone else down an inning from there. Wow, I think. Wow.

More to come. But that was killing me.

[AtomicDumpling]

Can't believe I've read this whole thing. Sounds like its the Sundeck vs Muggerd.
Which by the way when did marty get an account on here and why did he chose the name Muggerd.

From what I get out of Muggerd is he thinks Dunn walks to much and K's too much. Last time I checked those two statistics where part of what makes up OPS.

As for his salary I personally feel 13 million is going to be a bargain after we see what Tex signs for. Just saw today Boras is going for 15 to 20 per year. Personally i'd take Dunn any day of the year over Texiera.

Another thing, his career avg w/ RISP is low but if I remember correctly his OPS is right around 900 still

LOL

Marty could very well be Muggerd.

There aren't too many Dunn-bashers on here anymore. They tend to disappear when the facts come out.

[mound_patrol]

LOL

Marty could very well be Muggerd.

There aren't too many Dunn-bashers on here anymore. They tend to disappear when the facts come out.

Facts don't lie. But people SEE that Dunn isnt any good.

[improbus]

All I can say is this, when the team needs a hit, not a walk, but an actual meeting of bat and baseball, I want to see the following hitters at the plate, (in this order)

1) Junior
2) Phillips
3) Hatteberg
4) Conine
5) Dunn

Where would Berkman or Lee fit on the Astros? Teixera on the Rangers? Certainly not 5th behind a couple platoon players.

[boognish]

Berkman is having a bad season...but Dunn "fails miserably" over a seven-week stretch and you would prefer Conine over Dunn.

I am thankful that who you "want to see" has no bearing on how the Reds make personnel decisions.

What is wrong with the walk? It is not as good as a hit in many situations, but it fullfills the batter's primary goal in ALL situations: do not make an out.

[Muggerd]

All I can say is this, when the team needs a hit, not a walk, but an actual meeting of bat and baseball, I want to see the following hitters at the plate, (in this order)

1) Junior
2) Phillips
3) Hatteberg
4) Conine
5) Dunn

Where would Berkman or Lee fit on the Astros? Teixera on the Rangers? Certainly not 5th behind a couple platoon players.

Ive stated this over and over but id put edwin over dunn even.

[mound_patrol]

All I can say is this, when the team needs a hit, not a walk, but an actual meeting of bat and baseball, I want to see the following hitters at the plate, (in this order)

1) Junior
2) Phillips
3) Hatteberg
4) Conine
5) Dunn

Where would Berkman or Lee fit on the Astros? Teixera on the Rangers? Certainly not 5th behind a couple platoon players.

Thats your opinion. When is a walk not as good as a hit. Every time Dunn comes up to the plate he has the chance to go deep or he'll walk. The stats show this guy does well when it matters.

[Muggerd]

Berkman is having a bad season...but Dunn "fails miserably" over a seven-week stretch and you would prefer Conine over Dunn.

I am thankful that who you "want to see" has no bearing on how the Reds make personnel decisions.

What is wrong with the walk? It is not as good as a hit in many situations, but it fullfills the batter's primary goal in ALL situations: do not make an out.

If Dunn is a lead off hitter id take a walk every time. If someone is on base i dont want our power guy not swinging the bat.

[Muggerd]

Thats your opinion. When is a walk not as good as a hit. Every time Dunn comes up to the plate he has the chance to go deep or he'll walk. The stats show this guy does well when it matters.

So instead of us scoring runs when people get on base consistently we would rather take our chances and wait for that 3 run homer?

[mound_patrol]

So instead of us scoring runs when people get on base consistently we would rather take our chances and wait for that 3 run homer?

I want to avoid making outs. If Dunn doesnt get a pitch to drive I'd rather he walk then swing at bad pitches.

[Muggerd]

LOL

Marty could very well be Muggerd.

There aren't too many Dunn-bashers on here anymore. They tend to disappear when the facts come out.

His OPS is high you know why? because he walks. Walking with runners on base does nothing. Why the heck are you ok with your power RBI guy being happy with walks? Do you think cardinal and astro fans are happy when thier RBI guys walk? Hell no they want them to get the bat on the ball and drive those runners in.

[Muggerd]

I want to avoid making outs. If Dunn doesnt get a pitch to drive I'd rather he walk then swing at bad pitches.

When he gets pitches to drive he ends up either missing them or fouling them off anyways. There is a reason dunn strikes out 200 times it cant be just because the pitcher is throwing un hittable pitches.

[improbus]

Berkman is having a bad season...but Dunn "fails miserably" over a seven-week stretch and you would prefer Conine over Dunn.

I am thankful that who you "want to see" has no bearing on how the Reds make personnel decisions.

What is wrong with the walk? It is not as good as a hit in many situations, but it fullfills the batter's primary goal in ALL situations: do not make an out.

I hate to say this, but Berkman's "terrible season" looks alot like Dunn's season, w/ a few less home runs.

Berkman now: .257, 15, 61, OBP .379, OPS .810, 62 bb, 80 k's
Dunn now: .269, 27, 63, OBP .371, OPS .922, 56 bb, 120 k's.

The difference isn't that much, w/ Dunn having a career year and Berkman having the worst of his career.

[Muggerd]

I hate to say this, but Berkman's "terrible season" looks alot like Dunn's season, w/ a few less home runs.

Berkman now: .257, 15, 61, OBP .379, OPS .810, 62 bb, 80 k's
Dunn now: .269, 27, 63, OBP .371, OPS .922, 56 bb, 120 k's.

The difference isn't that much, w/ Dunn having a career year and Berkman having the worst of his career.

Now someone will ignore your point and say you arent using stats to support any claims you make.

[Fil3232]

I hate to say this, but Berkman's "terrible season" looks alot like Dunn's season, w/ a few less home runs.

Berkman now: .257, 15, 61, OBP .379, OPS .810, 62 bb, 80 k's
Dunn now: .269, 27, 63, OBP .371, OPS .922, 56 bb, 120 k's.

The difference isn't that much, w/ Dunn having a career year and Berkman having the worst of his career.

First, this isn't Dunn career year. See 2004 for that.

Second, Berkman is an upper echelon hitter. His "terrible" season will always look decent, all things considered, because he is too talented to have a Castro-esqe terrible season.

Thirdly, Muggerd, you see Berkman's high OBP? Looks to me like he is taking a lot of walks. I'm sure tha Astro fans are real upset though.

[boognish]

His OPS is high you know why? because he walks. Walking with runners on base does nothing. Why the heck are you ok with your power RBI guy being happy with walks? Do you think cardinal and astro fans are happy when thier RBI guys walk? Hell no they want them to get the bat on the ball and drive those runners in.

Whether they are your preferred method or no, walks are a vital part of successful offense. A player who walks a lot would optimally be utilized in such a fashion that his high OBP is advantageous, not hitting in front of Gonzo, Castro, Moeller, and Ross.

Also, just because Carlos Lee happens to fit your archetype of a middle of the order hitter because of' his low walk rate does not make him the gold standard "RBI guy." Jim Thome, Travis Hafner, Manny Ramirez, Bob Abreu, Barry Bonds, Frank Thomas, Todd Helton, Carlos Beltran, and Jason Giambi are all "RBI men" who walk a lot. Dunn, deployed correctly, is an asset to any lineup. Not passing your presupposed requirements does not render him a non-productive player.

[Degenerate39]

His OPS is high you know why? because he walks. Walking with runners on base does nothing. Why the heck are you ok with your power RBI guy being happy with walks? Do you think cardinal and astro fans are happy when thier RBI guys walk? Hell no they want them to get the bat on the ball and drive those runners in.

So his home runs have nothing to do with his OPS? I'm okay with anyone taking a walk for two reasons.

1- The pitcher throws more pitches than he would if the player popped up on the first pitch.

2- Another guy on base and it can move one man into scoring position or two men into scoring position.

[BLEEDS]

This guy is like talking to a brick wall. He is MAD because Adam Dunn receives walks instead of swinging at pitcher's pitches (read: NOT hitters pitches).

The reason pitchers pitch AROUND Dunn - you ever heard of the "Unintentional Intentional Walk"? - is because they DON'T want him hitting the ball. Odd concept I know.

OPS creates runs. Swinging at pitchers pitches - TO AVOID A WALK - is MORONIC and CREATES OUTS. Simple concept. Unfortunately Muggerd is not able to grasp that.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[improbus]

Now someone will ignore your point and say you arent using stats to support any claims you make.

I hope they do because I've always got more.

[boognish]

I hate to say this, but Berkman's "terrible season" looks alot like Dunn's season, w/ a few less home runs.

Berkman now: .257, 15, 61, OBP .379, OPS .810, 62 bb, 80 k's
Dunn now: .269, 27, 63, OBP .371, OPS .922, 56 bb, 120 k's.

The difference isn't that much, w/ Dunn having a career year and Berkman having the worst of his career.

Hmmm...looks like Berkman's OPS is more driven by walking than is Mr. Dunn's. I suppose Dunn's OPS is over 100 points higher because of all of the meaningless home runs he hits...

[Fil3232]

I hope they do because I've always got more.


More of what? More stats that try to claim Dunn isn't a run-producer? That's like saying you have unicorns on your farm.

[boognish]

More of what? More stats that try to claim Dunn isn't a run-producer? That's like saying you have unicorns on your farm.

Given that this argument has been hashed out hundreds of times on this forum, I highly anticipate the heretofore never explored evidence improbus has to offer to make his argument.

[Muggerd]

Hmmm...looks like Berkman's OPS is more driven by walking than is Mr. Dunn's. I suppose Dunn's OPS is over 100 points higher because of all of the meaningless home runs he hits...

No one is saying his home runs are meaningless

[mound_patrol]

No one is saying his home runs are meaningless


No you are just saying his walks are meaningless and that he should start hacking like soriano.

[Muggerd]

This guy is like talking to a brick wall. He is MAD because Adam Dunn receives walks instead of swinging at pitcher's pitches (read: NOT hitters pitches).

The reason pitchers pitch AROUND Dunn - you ever heard of the "Unintentional Intentional Walk"? - is because they DON'T want him hitting the ball. Odd concept I know.

OPS creates runs. Swinging at pitchers pitches - TO AVOID A WALK - is MORONIC and CREATES OUTS. Simple concept. Unfortunately Muggerd is not able to grasp that.

PEACE

-BLEEDS
Im upset that for some reason Dunn is the only RBI guy in the majors that acutally hits worse with RISP. That means when he doesnt walk he ends up getting out more then he does when no one is on base. My arguement is Dunn needs to learn to be able to hit pitches that are close not just take them as strikes. a .220 average is not good to me. I dont mind him walking but he flat out gets out too much when he doesnt walk.

[mound_patrol]

Im upset that for some reason Dunn is the only RBI guy in the majors that acutally hits worse with RISP. That means when he doesnt walk he ends up getting out more then he does when no one is on base. My arguement is Dunn needs to learn to be able to hit pitches that are close not just take them as strikes. a .220 average is not good to me. I dont mind him walking but he flat out gets out too much when he doesnt walk.

now you don't mind him taking a walk. Pick a stance and stay with it. You're changing your mind more than a five year old

[improbus]

First, this isn't Dunn career year. See 2004 for that.

Second, Berkman is an upper echelon hitter. His "terrible" season will always look decent, all things considered, because he is too talented to have a Castro-esqe terrible season.

Thirdly, Muggerd, you see Berkman's high OBP? Looks to me like he is taking a lot of walks. I'm sure tha Astro fans are real upset though.

You just said the one thing I wanted to hear.

1) you said that Berkman is an upper echelon hitter, which seems to mean that you don't think Dunn is.

Even though it may look like it, I'm not trying to say that Dunn isn't a good player and a valuable player. I just wish we could see a few things about him. BTW, Dunn is having a year very similar to 2004 (his career year)


But, here is what we do know about Adam Dunn:

1) He is not a leader
2) He is not a hitter, he is an OPS guy. And because of that:
3) He has never really found the right spot in the lineup. He has over 390 at bats in 5 different spots, which shows that he has never really fit nicely into the lineup
4) He doesn't play defense well

[mound_patrol]

Im upset that for some reason Dunn is the only RBI guy in the majors that acutally hits worse with RISP. That means when he doesnt walk he ends up getting out more then he does when no one is on base. My arguement is Dunn needs to learn to be able to hit pitches that are close not just take them as strikes. a .220 average is not good to me. I dont mind him walking but he flat out gets out too much when he doesnt walk.

His avg may not be high but his OBP is.

[Muggerd]

now you don't mind him taking a walk. Pick a stance and stay with it. You're changing your mind more than a five year old

He can walk all day long as long as a good batter is behind him. I have more faith in Keppinger getting hits than i do of dunn. You guys like the OBP i like consistent RBIs. Im tired of this team getting the bases loaded and not getting runs. Im tired of losing 1 run games because we couldnt get the runner in from 2nd. I want more consistancy and a the RISP BA matters to me.

[Muggerd]

His avg may not be high but his OBP is.

Walks = RBIs?

[mound_patrol]

He can walk all day long as long as a good batter is behind him. I have more faith in Keppinger getting hits than i do of dunn. You guys like the OBP i like consistent RBIs. Im tired of this team getting the bases loaded and not getting runs. Im tired of losing 1 run games because we couldnt get the runner in from 2nd. I want more consistancy and a the RISP BA matters to me.

Dont get overly excited with Keppinger yet. He's only had a really small sample size. Theres a reason hes bounced around from team to team.

[mound_patrol]

Walks = RBIs?

Walks equal not making an out.

[boognish]

No one is saying his home runs are meaningless

I claimed Berkman was having a bad season. Perhaps I should have been less vague so that a more in-depth look was warranted. Dunn has as many homeruns, 27, as Berkman has extra base hits, hence the disparity in OPS. Berkman is only slugging .431, a mark Dunn has never finished below, even in his sub-par 2003 (.465) and his disappointing 2006 (.490). Were Dunn to have such a 100-odd game stretch, with 62 walks and 27 XBH, Cincinnati would be screaming bloody murder.

The point is that preconceived notions of what an "RBI man" entails were being thrown around as synonymous with "production."

[Degenerate39]

Walks = RBIs?

Let's just put an end to the whole walks discussion with this question:

Would you rather Dunn possibly strike out, pop out, ground into a double play or take the safe bet and get on base?

[Muggerd]

Dont get overly excited with Keppinger yet. He's only had a really small sample size. Theres a reason hes bounced around from team to team.

Im fine saying Keppinger isnt going to produce but id much rather have a guy that is able to get that base knock when guys on base than the guy that has a higher OBP. You need to score runs when they are there for you to score them not wait for a home run. Close games are won by getting hits with RISP. I want Dunn to become a better hitter plain and simple. I want a guy that isnt afraid to choke up a little and try to just make contact with guys on base. Thats why his BA is so low with RISP he doesn't change his approach at the plate, hes still swinging for the fence.

[improbus]

The point is that preconceived notions of what an "RBI man" entails were being thrown around as synonymous with "production."

Now that I whole heartedly agree with. But, that means you have to have an "RBI man", and if Dunn starts getting $13-15 (or more) million a year, good luck finding one when Junior is gone and the team has spent what it needs to to restock the bully.

Another thing about RBI's. There was a time when 100 was the magic number, like 1000 yards rushing was in football. Now, it's more like 115-120 to be an "RBI man", like its around 1400-1500 yards to be a top rusher in the NFL. So, that's why I'm not overly impressed by 100 rbi's.

[Muggerd]

Let's just put an end to the whole walks discussion with this question:

Would you rather Dunn possibly strike out, pop out, ground into a double play or take the safe bet and get on base?

Id like him to get on base sure. I just dont agree with how he gets on base though.

[mound_patrol]

I cant believe we are argueing over how a guy gets on base.

The point of the matter is he GETS ON BASE

[Muggerd]

I cant believe we are argueing over how a guy gets on base.

The point of the matter is he GETS ON BASE

We are talking about RBIs here. I dont care how he gets on base if no on is on base. I care about how he gets on base if there are other runners on. Its just like i could careless if he strikes out with no one on base but i dont want him striking out with men on base. When the situation changes so does your approach to hitting.

[mound_patrol]

We are talking about RBIs here. I dont care how he gets on base if no on is on base. I care about how he gets on base if there are other runners on. Its just like i could careless if he strikes out with no one on base but i dont want him striking out with men on base. When the situation changes so does your approach to hitting.

But you don't want guys to swing at something that isnt there.

[Degenerate39]

Id like him to get on base sure. I just dont agree with how he gets on base though.

What is the man suppose to do? He's not Ichiro or Pete Rose.

[Muggerd]

But you don't want guys to swing at something that isnt there.

Of course not but im pretty sure Dunn gets the same pitches a guy like Pujols and Berkman gets, yet they find ways to hit better with guys on base.

Im not saying OBP is worthless im simply saying with a runners on the bases you have to find ways to score them. Taking the walk and hoping the next guy can slap a single isnt what i want in our power RBI guys.

[Muggerd]

What is the man suppose to do? He's not Ichiro or Pete Rose.

Other guys we are comparing Dunn to find ways to hit for higher avg with guys on base why is it so much harder for dunn?

[mound_patrol]

Of course not but im pretty sure Dunn gets the same pitches a guy like Pujols and Berkman gets, yet they find ways to hit better with guys on base.

Im not saying OBP is worthless im simply saying with a runners on the bases you have to find ways to score them. Taking the walk and hoping the next guy can slap a single isnt what i want in our power RBI guys.

Pujols and Berkman are both better than Dunn. You started this arguement saying he wasnt an RBI guy. And I'm pretty sure no one is saying he's the best of the best. But hey, he is 7th in the NL this year.

[Degenerate39]

Of course not but im pretty sure Dunn gets the same pitches a guy like Pujols and Berkman gets

That's a bold statement. I'd like to see some stats to back that up.

[Muggerd]

Pujols and Berkman are both better than Dunn. You started this arguement saying he wasnt an RBI guy. And I'm pretty sure no one is saying he's the best of the best. But hey, he is 7th in the NL this year.

You guys want to pay him like hes the best though. Im not about over paying guys to be 7th in his best season. Id over pay for a guy thats top 5 every year i just dont want to over pay for a guy thats more likely to be 10-15 in RBIs. For Dunn having a solid and great year hes still probably not going to be our top RBI guy at the end of the season. Id take my bets that Phillips and Griffey both pass him barring injuries.

[Muggerd]

That's a bold statement. I'd like to see some stats to back that up.

you have got to be kidding...

[mound_patrol]

Talking to the Marty, oops I mean Muggerd, about Dunn is like trying to talk Poe to a 2nd grader.

[Degenerate39]

Other guys we are comparing Dunn to find ways to hit for higher avg with guys on base why is it so much harder for dunn?

Dunn is not those other players. Dunn seems to be his own man he's not Pujols or Berkman.

[improbus]

I know that I'll never convince Sabermatricians that Dunn isn't a winner with numbers. It's like going into a shootout with a knife. But, this is what I FEEL when I watch Dunn. I feel like he plays in a vacuum. He plays with no regard to time, situation, inning, really anything. On a certain level, that is admirable. The fact that you always have the same approach is good. But, baseball is a situational game. It changes all the time. Walks are good, but I'd rather see Dunn try to push the Reds ahead than to leave it to Keppinger, Ross, Lopez, EE, Gonzalez or any of the other guys at the bottom of the lineup (when they hit Dunn 5th). What good does a walk do with EE following?

I feel that Dunn is good, but he could really be great, and its disappointing.

[Degenerate39]

you have got to be kidding...

You've got to be kidding by saying Dunn is getting similar pitches in those situations. There's no way to find that out unless you watch every At-Bat of every game for all three of those players.

[Muggerd]

You've got to be kidding by saying Dunn is getting similar pitches in those situations. There's no way to find that out unless you watch every At-Bat of every game for all three of those players.

Pitchers dont just throw Dunn balls and then go and throw Berkman and Pujols strikes. Why would a pitcher do that?

[mound_patrol]

I know that I'll never convince Sabermatricians that Dunn isn't a winner with numbers. It's like going into a shootout with a knife. But, this is what I FEEL when I watch Dunn. I feel like he plays in a vacuum. He plays with no regard to time, situation, inning, really anything. On a certain level, that is admirable. The fact that you always have the same approach is good. But, baseball is a situational game. It changes all the time. Walks are good, but I'd rather see Dunn try to push the Reds ahead than to leave it to Keppinger, Ross, Lopez, EE, Gonzalez or any of the other guys at the bottom of the lineup (when they hit Dunn 5th). What good does a walk do with EE following?

I feel that Dunn is good, but he could really be great, and its disappointing.

I'm sorry that his personality doesnt please you. I'd rather have Dunn that knows situations then someone like Freel who just plays reckless.
Don't say Dunn doesnt know situations. Just the other day Welsch said he had a conversation about bunting to avoid the switch, and Dunn talked about what situations he see fit to bunt and when to swing away. Dunn also picks good times to steal. Don't know what he does to make you think hes clueless out there.

[Muggerd]

I know that I'll never convince Sabermatricians that Dunn isn't a winner with numbers. It's like going into a shootout with a knife. But, this is what I FEEL when I watch Dunn. I feel like he plays in a vacuum. He plays with no regard to time, situation, inning, really anything. On a certain level, that is admirable. The fact that you always have the same approach is good. But, baseball is a situational game. It changes all the time. Walks are good, but I'd rather see Dunn try to push the Reds ahead than to leave it to Keppinger, Ross, Lopez, EE, Gonzalez or any of the other guys at the bottom of the lineup (when they hit Dunn 5th). What good does a walk do with EE following?

I feel that Dunn is good, but he could really be great, and its disappointing.

Well im happy that atleast someone else on this board i can agree with.

[Muggerd]

I'm sorry that his personality doesnt please you. I'd rather have Dunn that knows situations then someone like Freel who just plays reckless.
Don't say Dunn doesnt know situations. Just the other day Welsch said he had a conversation about bunting to avoid the switch, and Dunn talked about what situations he see fit to bunt and when to swing away. Dunn also picks good times to steal. Don't know what he does to make you think hes clueless out there.

Then he tried to bunt with the shift on and fouled it off. Next pitch he instead of bunting for the free single he grounded out to the 1st baseman.

[Degenerate39]

Pitchers dont just throw Dunn balls and then go and throw Berkman and Pujols strikes. Why would a pitcher do that?

That is not my point. Pitchers don't throw the same exact pitch to all three of those guys in the same exact situations.

[boognish]

Now that I whole heartedly agree with. But, that means you have to have an "RBI man", and if Dunn starts getting $13-15 (or more) million a year, good luck finding one when Junior is gone and the team has spent what it needs to to restock the bully.

Dunn's price tag will likely soon outstrip his production; he will be making full market value on his next contract, and there is virutally no history on the career paths of players his size roaming the OF when on defense. His defense will likely get worse as his knees and back take more wear.

I think 13 million for Dunn's production is palatable, even for the Reds. When he begins earning more than that it becomes money spent less than efficiently (but still palatable if he continues to play 150 games every year). The Reds need Dunn to be a four-win bat over the life of the contract if they long-term him, and as with any long-term contract, it is a gamble. Dunn will never knock in 115-120 runs per annum--I reconciled myself with thinking of Dunn as a prime years Jim Thome minus 20 singles (about a hit per week) a couple of years ago and feel better for it. There are many dollars allocated in a problematic manner up and down this roster, and, RBI totals be damned, I do not believe those given Dunn fall into that category.

[Degenerate39]

Then he tried to bunt with the shift on and fouled it off. Next pitch he instead of bunting for the free single he grounded out to the 1st baseman.

I believe I heard or read a manager (I think Sparky Anderson) say he wouldn't tell a guy like Cecil Fielder to bunt because that's not the type of player he is. Dunn is the same way.

[Muggerd]

That is not my point. Pitchers don't throw the same exact pitch to all three of those guys in the same exact situations.

Yes pitchers do in fact try to pitch around pujols and berkman and make them make mistakes. The thing is those guys are better hitters and can take the pitchers pitch and turn it into a hit.

[Degenerate39]

Yes pitchers do in fact try to pitch around pujols and berkman and make them make mistakes. The thing is those guys are better hitters and can take the pitchers pitch and turn it into a hit.

Dunn is not Pujols or Berkman it's that simple. You can't compare Dunn to them. Dunn's strengths are his power and his ability to draw walks. If Pujols can hit a ball outside of the zone good for him. But I'd rather not see Dunn possibly strike out or ground into a double play etc.

[improbus]

I'm sorry that his personality doesnt please you. I'd rather have Dunn that knows situations then someone like Freel who just plays reckless.
Don't say Dunn doesnt know situations. Just the other day Welsch said he had a conversation about bunting to avoid the switch, and Dunn talked about what situations he see fit to bunt and when to swing away. Dunn also picks good times to steal. Don't know what he does to make you think hes clueless out there.

I'm not saying he's an idiot, and I agree that Freel overextends himself trying to push the envelope. Sometimes, you have to find that happy medium.

Listen, I'm just some yahoo sitting at his computer at 11:30 on a weeknight complaining about a guy who is so good at what he does that he gets paid $10 million dollars. But I do know some baseball. It's kind of the family business (1 former big leaguer, 2 former minor leaguers, 2 D-1 college players, 1 college coach, etc...) I know the game is more than numbers. It's more than "Moneyball" and OPS. Remember, the only "Moneyball" team to win the series was the 2004 Red Sox, and the most important play of their run was the least "Moneyball" play of them all, the Dave Roberts stolen base.

[boognish]

Yes pitchers do in fact try to pitch around pujols and berkman and make them make mistakes. The thing is those guys are better hitters and can take the pitchers pitch and turn it into a hit.

If you are arguing that Dunn is not Pujols you won't get an argument from anybody. Everyone knows he is not the best hitter in the NL. Why do you seem to expect him to be? He is not making money commensurate with "best in NL," so you cannot use that argument to compare him to the Pujols standard.

Berkman had a superhuman year last year and seems to get a pass from you though Dunn is outstripping him in 2007 in every category of statistical measurement save, ironically, walks. What is your success criteria? The problem in the Dunn debate is that certain people are never able to get over their perception of what he should be, which is a greater hitter than he is. I feel you are one taking that stance, a difficult one to maintain.

[Muggerd]

Dunn is not Pujols or Berkman it's that simple. You can't compare Dunn to them. Dunn's strengths are his power and his ability to draw walks. If Pujols can hit a ball outside of the zone good for him. But I'd rather not see Dunn possibly strike out or ground into a double play etc.

If Dunn isnt Pujols or Berkman why are you guys wanting to pay him the same type of money?

[improbus]

Dunn's price tag will likely soon outstrip his production; he will be making full market value on his next contract, and there is virutally no history on the career paths of players his size roaming the OF when on defense. His defense will likely get worse as his knees and back take more wear.

I think 13 million for Dunn's production is palatable, even for the Reds. When he begins earning more than that it becomes money spent less than efficiently (but still palatable if he continues to play 150 games every year). The Reds need Dunn to be a four-win bat over the life of the contract if they long-term him, and as with any long-term contract, it is a gamble. Dunn will never knock in 115-120 runs per annum--I reconciled myself with thinking of Dunn as a prime years Jim Thome minus 20 singles (about a hit per week) a couple of years ago and feel better for it. There are many dollars allocated in a problematic manner up and down this roster, and, RBI totals be damned, I do not believe those given Dunn fall into that category.

You hit it right on the head. All I hope is that the Reds don't get involved in a bidding war. They've got big problems, and Dunn isn't necessarily one of them.

[Muggerd]

If you are arguing that Dunn is not Pujols you won't get an argument from anybody. Everyone knows he is not the best hitter in the NL. Why do you seem to expect him to be? He is not making money commensurate with "best in NL," so you cannot use that argument to compare him to the Pujols standard.

Berkman had a superhuman year last year and seems to get a pass from you though Dunn is outstripping him in 2007 in every category of statistical measurement save, ironically, walks. What is your success criteria? The problem in the Dunn debate is that certain people are never able to get over their perception of what he should be, which is a greater hitter than he is. I feel you are one taking that stance, a difficult one to maintain.

Why do we want to spend more money on Dunn than those players make when we all agree hes worse than all of them?

[Degenerate39]

If Dunn isnt Pujols or Berkman why are you guys wanting to pay him the same type of money?

Because 13 million dollars is cheap for a guy that can hit 40 home runs.

Also do you know what Pujols and Berkman's contracts are? I can't find that info out anywhere on Yahoo search.

[improbus]

Since Dunn's contract came up, I'm gonna paste a post I did in another thread with some other contracts to compare with Dunn.

Vlad: Signed five-year, $70 million contract w/2009 option. 2007: $13.5 million, 2008: $14.5 million, 2009: $15 million club option w/$3 million buyout, 2010: Free Agent

Papi: Signed four-year, $52 million extension w/2011 option. 2007: $12.5 million, 2008: $12.5 million, 2009: $12.5 million, 2010: $12.5 million, 2011: $12.5 million club option, 2012: Free Agent

Mags: Signed five-year, $75 million contract w/2009 & '10 options. 2007: $12 million, 2008: $15 million, 2009: $18 million, 2010: $15 million club option w/$3 million buyout, 2011: $15 million club option (both option years guaranteed w/135 starts or 540 PA in '09 or 270 starts or 1,080 PA between '08 and '09, 2010 option increases to $18 million under those circumstances)

Tejada: Signed six-year, $72 million contract. 2007: $12 million, 2008: $13 million, 2009: $13 million, 2010: Free Agent

Matsui: Signed four-year, $52 million contract w/NTC. 2007: $13 million, 2008: $13 million, 2009: $13 million, 2010: Free Agent

Beltran: Signed seven-year, $119 million contract w/NTC. 2007: $14 million, 2008: $18.5 million, 2009: $18.5 million, 2010: $18.5 million, 2011: $18.5 million, 2012: Free Agent

D.Lee: Signed five-year, $65 million contact w/NTC. 2007: $13 million, 2008: $13 million, 2009: $13 million, 2010: $13 million, 2011: Free Agent

C. Lee: Signed six-year, $100 million contract (NTC through 2010). 2007: $11 million, 2008: $12 million, 2009: $18.5 million, 2010: $18.5 million, 2011: $18.5 million, 2012: $18.5 million, 2013: Free agent

C. Jones: Signed three-year, $37 million contract w/2009 option. 2007: $11 million, 2008: $11 million, 2009: $8 million-$11 million club option (vests w/450 PA in 2008), 2010: Free Agent

Pujols: Signed seven-year, $100 million contract w/2011 option. 2007: $15 million, 2008: $16 million, 2009: $16 million, 2010: $16 million, 2011: $16 million team option w/$5 million buyout, 2012: Free Agent

A. Jones: six-year, $75 million contract. 2007: $13.5 million, 2008: Free Agent

A. Dunn: Signed two-year, $18 million contract w/2008 option. 2007: $10.5 million, 2008: $13 million club option w/$500,000 buyout (voidable by player if traded), 2009: Free Agent

T. Hafner: Hafner's salary this year was increased by $2.25 million to $6.3 million, and $3 million was added to raise his 2008 salary to $8.05 million. He will receive $11.5 million in each of the 2009 and 2010 seasons, and $13 million apiece in 2011 and 2012. Also, the Indians will hold a $13 million option with a $2.75 million buyout on Travis Hafner for 2013.

[boognish]

If Dunn isnt Pujols or Berkman why are you guys wanting to pay him the same type of money?

This seems to be a misconception about the 8-figure salary threshold. Berkman is currently making 14.5MM base, 45&#37; more than Dunn. Pujols is making 16MM, 60% more than Dunn. Dunn's production is commensurate with his salary; try picking on the many people in the Reds' dugout who aren't measuring up.

EDIT: Well-researched, improbus.

[Muggerd]

This seems to be a misconception about the 8-figure salary threshold. Berkman is currently making 14.5MM base, 45% more than Dunn. Pujols is making 16MM, 60% more than Dunn. Dunn's production is commensurate with his salary; try picking on the many people in the Reds' dugout who aren't measuring up.

EDIT: Well-researched, improbus.
Dunn is going to be making 13 million next year and im sure hes going to be getting another few million in raises the year after.

[boognish]

Dunn is going to be making 13 million next year and im sure hes going to be getting another few million in raises the year after.

Dunn is not signed for the year after next. Why worry about what he is being paid then? His salary will still be below that of the men to which you compare him.

[improbus]

I'm just not sure I'm ready to live in a world where Adam Dunn makes more money than Vlad Guerrero and David Ortiz....

[Muggerd]

Dunn is not signed for the year after next. Why worry about what he is being paid then?

Because you guys seem like you want to keep him and resign him. Why are we even fighting then if none of you want him after next year. Get what you can for Dunn, save the money and put it somewhere else.

[Degenerate39]

Because you guys seem like you want to keep him and resign him. Why are we even fighting then if none of you want him after next year. Get what you can for Dunn, save the money and put it somewhere else.

Did I ever say I didn't want him long term? No I didn't. If I was management I'd lock him up for 3 or 4 years with an option for a 5th year.

[boognish]

I'm just not sure I'm ready to live in a world where Adam Dunn makes more money than Vlad Guerrero and David Ortiz....

Don't forget Mike Hampton, Barry Zito, or Jason Giambi.

[Muggerd]

Did I ever say I didn't want him long term? No I didn't. If I was management I'd lock him up for 3 or 4 years with an option for a 5th year.

Him signing that contract isnt going to make his salary any less.

[Degenerate39]

Don't forget Mike Hampton, Barry Zito, or Jason Giambi.

Speaking of Mike Hampton whatever happened to him?

[Muggerd]

Speaking of Mike Hampton whatever happened to him?

hes been injured and had tommy john last season

[improbus]

A few more contracts:

Lance Berkman: Signed six-year, $85 million contract w/2011 option. 2007: $14.5 million, 2008: $14.5 million, 2009: $14.5 million, 2010: $14.5 million, 2011: $15 million club option w/$2 million buyout, 2012: Free Agent

Teixiera: Signed two-year, $15.4 million contract. 2007: $9.4 million, 2008: Arb. Eligible, 2009: Free Agent

Konerko: Signed five-year, $60 million contract. 2007: $12 million, 2008: $12 million, 2009: $12 million, 2010: $12 million, 2011: Free Agent

Thome: Signed six-year, $85 million contract w/2009 option. 2007: $14 million, 2008: $14 million, 2009: $13 million club option w/$3 million buyout), 2010: Free Agent

Sheffield: Signed two-year, $28 million extension. 2007: $13 million, 2008: $14 million, 2009: $14 million, 2010: Free Agent

Torii Hunter: Signed four-year, $32 million contract w/2007 option. 2007: $12 million club option (exercised), 2008: Free Agent

Beltre: Signed five-year, $64 million contract. 2007: $11.5 million, 2008: $11.5 million, 2009: $11.5 million, 2010: Free Agent

SOME GOOD CONTRACTS, SOME HORRIBLE CONTRACTS...

[Degenerate39]

Him signing that contract isnt going to make his salary any less.

Again I never said it would make him cheaper. Nor did I ever think of it. Where is the offense going to come from if Dunn is traded this season or they don't pick up his contract? What if Griffey doesn't stay healthy? What if Hamilton gets back on all the drugs or he doesn't stay healthy either? Norris Hopper and Ryan Freel are not going to replace what Dunn can do.

[improbus]

Again I never said it would make him cheaper. Nor did I ever think of it. Where is the offense going to come from if Dunn is traded this season or they don't pick up his contract? What if Griffey doesn't stay healthy? What if Hamilton gets back on all the drugs or he doesn't stay healthy either? Norris Hopper and Ryan Freel are not going to replace what Dunn can do.

Does it matter if they still can't pitch?

[Muggerd]

Again I never said it would make him cheaper. Nor did I ever think of it. Where is the offense going to come from if Dunn is traded this season or they don't pick up his contract? What if Griffey doesn't stay healthy? What if Hamilton gets back on all the drugs or he doesn't stay healthy either? Norris Hopper and Ryan Freel are not going to replace what Dunn can do.

Those RBIs might not be replaceable 1 for 1 but they are still going to be there somewhere. Offense is hardly ever going to be a problem for the reds. I mean people were worried about our offense when we traded Kearns and lopez and we recovered pretty well didnt we? If you must find a guy to replace Dunn get a Byrnes or a Rowand for 9 or 10 million. I have dont think replacing dunn isnt going to be that big of a problem anyways :p

[Degenerate39]

Does it matter if they still can't pitch?

Does it matter if Wayne spends that money on over the hill relief pitchers?

[Muggerd]

Does it matter if Wayne spends that money on over the hill relief pitchers?

If Wayne cant improve this this teams bullpen and staff with the 30 million or so we might have if we get rid of dunn, then Wayne has no business being a GM.

[improbus]

Does it matter if Wayne spends that money on over the hill relief pitchers?
You have to admit, it did work for a while last year, and if the Majek-man, Bray, and Guardado were healthy...

[mound_patrol]

I'm just not sure I'm ready to live in a world where Adam Dunn makes more money than Vlad Guerrero and David Ortiz....

I think the only reason Dunn is going to get a bigger contract then these two players is because of when they signed their contracts. If Dunn was in the same market at the same time as Vlad and Ortiz I gaurantee those two would sign a bigger contract.

I don't have a problem with people saying they don't want to sign Dunn to a long term contract because of his cost. If you don't think he's worth the 15 million he'll demand thats fine. We're the Reds and we have to maximize our money(something I dont trust Wayne to do). I personally think Dunn would be worth signing a 3 year extension. Atleast we know what to expect from Dunn, day in and day out.

I do have a problem when people go out and attack Dunn like he's a Norris Hopper who is supposed to be as good as Pujols. This man gets on base, scores, and drives others in. And he's very good at all three of those things.

[Muggerd]

I think the only reason Dunn is going to get a bigger contract then these two players is because of when they signed their contracts. If Dunn was in the same market at the same time as Vlad and Ortiz I gaurantee those two would sign a bigger contract.

I don't have a problem with people saying they don't want to sign Dunn to a long term contract because of his cost. If you don't think he's worth the 15 million he'll demand thats fine. We're the Reds and we have to maximize our money(something I dont trust Wayne to do). I personally think Dunn would be worth signing a 3 year extension. Atleast we know what to expect from Dunn, day in and day out.

I do have a problem when people go out and attack Dunn like he's a Norris Hopper who is supposed to be as good as Pujols. This man gets on base, scores, and drives others in. And he's very good at all three of those things.

Id like you to find me a 3/4/5 hitter that isnt close to 100 runs/rbis a year. If Adam Dunn wasnt going to make 13million then 15 or what ever million after that then i wouldnt be so down on him, but for that type of money he needs to be as good as the players that make the same amount of money as him.

I wouldnt pay Willis the same money as Zambrano(maybe if it took that much for Willis to be a red), why would you pay Adam Dunn the same money as Puhols?

[mound_patrol]

Id like you to find me a 3/4/5 hitter that isnt close to 100 runs/rbis a year. If Adam Dunn wasnt going to make 13million then 15 or what ever million after that then i wouldnt be so down on him, but for that type of money he needs to be as good as the players that make the same amount of money as him.

I wouldnt pay Arroyo the same money as Zambrano, why would you pay Adam Dunn the same money as Puhols?

You can't compare what Dunn will make in Free Agency next year to what Pujols Signed for last year. If Pujols and Dunn were Free Agents this season then we'd see Pujols make atleast 5 million more than Dunn.

[Muggerd]

You can't compare what Dunn will make in Free Agency next year to what Pujols Signed for last year. If Pujols and Dunn were Free Agents this season then we'd see Pujols make atleast 5 million more than Dunn.

Why cant i compare it? Maybe we should wait for a good player and pay for him instead of just settling on another player. Getting the most out of our money matters to me more than us just paying what the FA market says we have to pay. I do not want to be on the hook for Adam Dunn if it means we might miss out on someone else next year or the year after.

I dont want to handcuff this team with a player i dont think is worth the money thats all. Id rather go after some other guys that worry about resigning Dunn.

[mound_patrol]

Why cant i compare it? Maybe we should wait for a good player and pay for him instead of just settling on another player. Getting the most out of our money matters to me more than us just paying what the FA market says we have to pay. I do not want to be on the hook for Adam Dunn if it means we might miss out on someone else next year or the year after.

I dont want to handcuff this team with a player i dont think is worth the money thats all. Id rather go after some other guys that worry about resigning Dunn.

Dunn is a very good player. What makes you think a great player like Pujols, Vlad, or Arod would want to come to Cincinnati. They've been flocking here in the past havent they?

[Muggerd]

Dunn is a very good player. What makes you think a great player like Pujols, Vlad, or Arod would want to come to Cincinnati. They've been flocking here in the past havent they?
I dont want to pay Dunn MVP money. Plain and simple.

[mound_patrol]

I dont want to pay Dunn MVP money. Plain and simple.

Dunn wont command over 20 million like your "MVP" type players will get when they enter Free Agency. Instead you'll be paying a contract like what Travis Hafner got.

I think you see the facts but just have a deep hatred for Dunn. Did he turn you down for an autograph. Did he snub you somehow. Or did your grandpa Marty brainwash you? Either way you are unwilling to see the obvious facts that numerous people have presented which makes me think its more than what Dunn does on the field that bothers you.

[Muggerd]

Dunn wont command over 20 million like your "MVP" type players will get when they enter Free Agency. Instead you'll be paying a contract like what Travis Hafner got.

I think you see the facts but just have a deep hatred for Dunn. Did he turn you down for an autograph. Did he snub you somehow. Or did your grandpa Marty brainwash you? Either way you are unwilling to see the obvious facts that numerous people have presented which makes me think its more than what Dunn does on the field that bothers you.

How do you like anything Dunn does on the field really.. if he was this teams DH i might be able to handle him but he isnt a good hitter, he doesnt ever change his apporach to the plate and is god awful at moving. This team is full of mashers id be happy to get rid of the one with the least skill.

[mound_patrol]

How do you like anything Dunn does on the field really.. if he was this teams DH i might be able to handle him but he isnt a good hitter, he doesnt ever change his apporach to the plate and is god awful at moving. This team is full of mashers id be happy to get rid of the one with the least skill.

HAHAHA...now I know you bonkers. By "Mashers" do you mean Dunn and Griffey. No one else could be considered a "Masher". Whats a good hitter to you. Albert Pujols. Okay fine since Dunn isnt as good as Pujols he isnt a good hitter, but either is anyone else not including Arod.
How about the fact that Dunn has 8 stolen bases this year. What an unmovable slug.

[Muggerd]

HAHAHA...now I know you bonkers. By "Mashers" do you mean Dunn and Griffey. No one else could be considered a "Masher". Whats a good hitter to you. Albert Pujols. Okay fine since Dunn isnt as good as Pujols he isnt a good hitter, but either is anyone else not including Arod.
How about the fact that Dunn has 8 stolen bases this year. What an unmovable slug.

You really are going to make the arguement that Dunn stealing 8 bases is a hard thing to accomplish? Dunn can steal 8 bases because really who expects him to run?

Mashers i mean players swinging for the fence. Why does this team need more guys hitting home runs seriously. Hitting the most home runs in the league will never win us a game if we cant pitch.

Dunn isnt a good hitter. Not because hes not as good as pujols, its because he bats .250. If dunn could hit with RISP (not just get walks) and bat around .290 great sign him up he has show improvement. Dunn hasnt gotten any better for years yet we keep on wanting to pay him more and more...

[BLEEDS]

Why not try OBJECTIVELY thinking about it this way:

$13M/$15M will get you MORE in the hitting Department than it will in the Pitching Department.

You might get you a middle-of-the road SP, maybe a #3. While it will get you a top 10 OPS Slugger.

Once you replace Dunn's salary with that of a Byrnes or Rowand, you MIGHT get a savings of $3/4M - what is that going to get you? MAYBE a pre-arbitration Closer. NOTHING in FA. You'll give up 15-20 HR's, 20-30 RBI, 20-30+ Runs, and probably a good 50 to 100 pts of OPS.

To me, that's worth $4M per year, ESPECIALLY when you consider what you can get - dollar for dollar - in pitching.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[Muggerd]

Why not try OBJECTIVELY thinking about it this way:

$13M/$15M will get you MORE in the hitting Department than it will in the Pitching Department.

You might get you a middle-of-the road SP, maybe a #3. While it will get you a top 10 OPS Slugger.

Once you replace Dunn's salary with that of a Byrnes or Rowand, you MIGHT get a savings of $3/4M - what is that going to get you? MAYBE a pre-arbitration Closer. NOTHING in FA. You'll give up 15-20 HR's, 20-30 RBI, 20-30+ Runs, and probably a good 50 to 100 pts of OPS.

To me, that's worth $4M per year, ESPECIALLY when you consider what you can get - dollar for dollar - in pitching.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

You typing in caps pretty much makes it impossible for me to care what you type.

Ill post anyways though. I dont care about his OPS. There is more to building a line up that just having OPS. In a line up of people that swing for the fence we need some guys hit the ball. Dunn isnt our only problem with this line up. I dont want a team of Adam Dunns. Just like i dont want a team of lead off men. I want a well balanced team that is consistent and not prone to month long slumps and then start getting hot streaks. I want players that have a little more ability than just walking and hitting the ball out of the park.

Am i wrong for wanting a consistent line up and consistent pitching? I dont want our season to be on the line beause the whole team goes into a slump a the same time. We missed the playoffs last year because of that mainly because Dunn started batting like ryan freel. Just like we lost a bunch of games this year because no one in the bullpen could get anyone out. Consistency is what i ask for and Dunn brings none of that durring the year. His numbers might consistently be 100 rbis 100 runs and a decent OPS but hes slumps and streaks like no other player in the league.

[mound_patrol]

You typing in caps pretty much makes it impossible for me to care what you type.

Ill post anyways though. I dont care about his OPS. There is more to building a line up that just having OPS. In a line up of people that swing for the fence we need some guys hit the ball. Dunn isnt our only problem with this line up. I dont want a team of Adam Dunns. Just like i dont want a team of lead off men. I want a well balanced team that is consistent and not prone to month long slumps and then start getting hot streaks. I want players that have a little more ability than just walking and hitting the ball out of the park.

Am i wrong for wanting a consistent line up and consistent pitching? I dont want our season to be on the line beause the whole team goes into a slump a the same time. We missed the playoffs last year because of that mainly because Dunn started batting like ryan freel. Just like we lost a bunch of games this year because no one in the bullpen could get anyone out. Consistency is what i ask for and Dunn brings none of that durring the year. His numbers might consistently be 100 rbis 100 runs and a decent OPS but hes slumps and streaks like no other player in the league.

Every player has slumps, but one thing that doesnt slump is walks. You say you want a good lineup, then you need a mixture of guys. There is no one like adam dunn.
Wasnt Pujols in a long slump? How about Berkman? Arod slumped last season? Griffey was hitting below .200 the past 15 games. Hows big Papi doing this year? Vlad is in his longest homerless drought. Bonds slumped. I can go on and on about slumps. So what is your point Marty?

You ignoring facts is humerous to me. Just shows you are ignorant. You havent given anything to disprove anythign anyone has said. Why dont you cut your losses.

[Muggerd]

Every player has slumps, but one thing that doesnt slump is walks. You say you want a good lineup, then you need a mixture of guys. There is no one like adam dunn.
Wasnt Pujols in a long slump? How about Berkman? Arod slumped last season? Griffey was hitting below .200 the past 15 games. Hows big Papi doing this year? Vlad is in his longest homerless drought. Bonds slumped. I can go on and on about slumps. So what is your point Marty?

You ignoring facts is humerous to me. Just shows you are ignorant. You havent given anything to disprove anythign anyone has said. Why dont you cut your losses.
Its not that players slump its how bad and how long they slump.


My biggest problem with Dunn is his inconsistency. When he goes into one of his funks, the Reds lose and lose big time. Nobody quite goes into a funk like Adam Dunn. Last year, the Reds were fighting for a playoff spot, and in August he hit .181 w/ an OPS of .700 and in Sept./Oct. he it .161 w/ and OPS of .594. When he goes bad, he's the worst player on the team. He's hit .200 or lower over 8 different months during his career (not including the time he was hurt in '03). Junior has had two such months in his entire career, one his rookie year, and last July (the two others contained less than 6 games due to injury). Even the uber-streaky Andruw Jones has only had 6 months at .200 or lower (in seven more years of playing). That is a HUGE problem.
So, I know that Dunn's numbers always even themselves out in the end, but baseball is a game of grinding and a game of consistency. NOT all numbers are the same. There is definitely a reason the Reds have had good halves and terrible halves (aside from the pitching)

You must have missed that post.

Being in a homerless slump is one thing, being in a everything slump is another.

[mound_patrol]

Its not that players slump its how bad and how long they slump.



You must have missed that post.

Being in a homerless slump is one thing, being in a everything slump is another.

He was still getting on base.

[jimbo]

Dunn isnt a good hitter. Not because hes not as good as pujols, its because he bats .250. If dunn could hit with RISP (not just get walks) and bat around .290 great sign him up he has show improvement. Dunn hasnt gotten any better for years yet we keep on wanting to pay him more and more...

Man, you're getting owned in this thread by making comments like this. Time and time again the numbers have been shown that demonstrate Dunn's value as a hitter. You have to look at the overall picture, and Dunn's overall stats do not lie.

Now, I don't disagree with everything you are saying. I'm all for trading Dunn if the return is right, but I'm not for trading Dunn just to trade him. For those who think that his freed up $13+ million isn't enough to help improve the pitching, I disagree. In this division, no team is far off from competing. $13 million could go a long way to picking up a couple of relievers or a good starter.

I think Muggerd simplys feels that pitching is what wins championships, without it no amount of offense will be enough to compete on a consistant basis.......and I agree. Having said that though, do not give Dunn away. If you can't get a good return, keep him and go a different route. But in the end, without improving the pitching the Reds will continue their losing ways.

[mound_patrol]

Man, you're getting owned in this thread by making comments like this. Time and time again the numbers have been shown that demonstrate Dunn's value as a hitter. You have to look at the overall picture, and Dunn's overall stats do not lie.

Now, I don't disagree with everything you are saying. I'm all for trading Dunn if the return is right, but I'm not for trading Dunn just to trade him. For those who think that his freed up $13+ million isn't enough to help improve the pitching, I disagree. In this division, no team is far off from competing. $13 million could go a long way to picking up a couple of relievers or a good starter.

I think Muggerd simplys feels that pitching is what wins championships, without it no amount of offense will be enough to compete on a consistant basis.......and I agree. Having said that though, do not give Dunn away. If you can't get a good return, keep him and go a different route. But in the end, without improving the pitching the Reds will continue their losing ways.

I agree with you that pitching wins. And this Reds teams has a ton of holes. But getting rid of Dunn creates another one. A smart organization would move forward with Dunn. The offense could easily be in contention if the bullpen money had been used better. Lets not dismantle the offense to try to fix something else. Keep the offense and fix the pitching.

[jimbo]

$13M/$15M will get you MORE in the hitting Department than it will in the Pitching Department.


I don't think that's accurate. Looking through last year's free agent signings, I only saw 3 pitchers who signed for more than $13 million a year......Zito, Schmidt, and Pettite. I don't think those are the type of pitchers the Reds should go after anyways. They need to stay away from free agent pitchers who demand that kind of money and a long-term commitment.

But if you do your homework, you can find some nice pitchers who fall under that range. Then take into account the kind of money that hitters like Drew ($14 million a year for 5 years) and Juan Pierre ($9 million a year for 5 years) are getting and Dunn looks like a bargain.

[jimbo]

I agree with you that pitching wins. And this Reds teams has a ton of holes. But getting rid of Dunn creates another one. A smart organization would move forward with Dunn. The offense could easily be in contention if the bullpen money had been used better. Lets not dismantle the offense to try to fix something else. Keep the offense and fix the pitching.

That's a good solution if you work under the type of payroll that the Yankees and Red Sox do. In order for the Reds to maintain status quo and improve the pitching, payroll will need to be increased substantially and I simply cannot see that happening.

It has been proven since the Griffey signing, that this team cannot compete when the vast majority of their payroll is committed to a few players. I like Dunn and understand how valuable he is to the offense, but improving pitching is top priority and freeing up the large contracts is really the most viable way of doing so.

The core needs to be blown up.

[mound_patrol]

That's a good solution if you work under the type of payroll that the Yankees and Red Sox do. In order for the Reds to maintain status quo and improve the pitching, payroll will need to be increased substantially and I simply cannot see that happening.

It has been proven since the Griffey signing, that this team cannot compete when the vast majority of their payroll is committed to a few players. I like Dunn and understand how valuable he is to the offense, but improving pitching is top priority and freeing up the large contracts is really the most viable way of doing so.

The core needs to be blown up.

You blow the core up if you think we aren't close to competing. We have a good group of estrablished players(Harang, Arroyo, Dunn, Phillips)and guys with a lot of upside(Hamilton,Votto, Bailey, Cuerto, Bruce, and Encarnacion) and a few vets still playing well(Jr, Weathers, and Hatteberg). We should be adding to this group not dismanteling it. If you want to blow anything up blow the bullpen up and actually get guys who can come in and miss bats.

I would be content next season with a rotation of Harang, Arroyo, Bailey, Dumatrait, and Livingston. If we added an arm great. Cuerto could be an addition by midseason next year if there are no setbacks.

A lineup next year of votto, phillips, gonzo, ee, dunn, hamilton, and jr looks pretty good as well. Eventually you'd have Bruce replacing Jr when his contract is up or traded.

The bullpen is definitly the problem. We might find a few guys this year from within our organization who can do the job and then spend some real cash and get some real arms.

If that was done this team could easily compete.

I think all that could be done at around 80 million.

[jimbo]

We should be adding to this group not dismanteling it.

If you are going to add, then you have to add to the payroll, and considerably. I just can't see that happening.


I would be content next season with a rotation of Harang, Arroyo, Bailey, Dumatrait, and Livingston.

You are relying on 3 big "ifs" if you are counting on that rotation. Out of Bailey, Dumatrait, and Livingston, I would only count on one of those three to make it into the rotation and actually be effective over the course of an entire season.


A lineup next year of votto, phillips, gonzo, ee, dunn, hamilton, and jr looks pretty good as well.

Yeah, it looks good this year too but it isn't working.


The bullpen is definitly the problem. We might find a few guys this year from within our organization who can do the job and then spend some real cash and get some real arms.

We "might" be able to find a lot of things, but you can't count on it. And in order to spend some "real cash," some real cash will need to be freed up.


think all that could be done at around 80 million.

I just can't see how. That is only a little over $10 million more than this season. Granted, Milton's contract comes off the books, but you also have to consider the raises that a handfull of the players will be getting. That doesn't leave much left over to do what is need, IMO.

[mound_patrol]

Lets say we only have 10 million to spend. If you got two bullpen arms at 5 million a year to go with Bray, Weathers, Coutlangus, and maybe someone like Burton if he keeps improving. We would finally have a pretty solid bullpen to go with the Offense.

I think Livingston has showed he can be a number 5 starter. We know what Harang and Arroyo can do, and you know Bailey will be in the Rotation.

I'm just not in belief of blowing the team up and I know the Reds organization isn't either or they wouldn't have given Harang and Arroyo extensions. The reds chances to win are before those contracts run out.

[jimbo]

Lets say we only have 10 million to spend. If you got two bullpen arms at 5 million a year to go with Bray, Weathers, Coutlangus, and maybe someone like Burton if he keeps improving. We would finally have a pretty solid bullpen to go with the Offense.

I think Livingston has showed he can be a number 5 starter. We know what Harang and Arroyo can do, and you know Bailey will be in the Rotation.

I'm just not in belief of blowing the team up and I know the Reds organization isn't either or they wouldn't have given Harang and Arroyo extensions. The reds chances to win are before those contracts run out.


Bray is a big question mark, Weathers at his age is a question mark, Burton is still a question mark. Just too many if's there, IMO, to count on them. I like them, but I want to find relievers that are established to compliment them.

Too small of a sample size to consider Livingston as a viable option at this point. Let's see what his numbers are at the end of the season.

I don't want to blow up the whole team, only the core, and that starts with Dunn. Again though, I'm not for giving him away, only if you get a good return.

[Muggerd]

Dunn is good at getting on base, great. Now we solved our lead off hitter problems.

[Screwball]

Dunn is good at getting on base, great. Now we solved our lead off hitter problems.

Do we have a Bob Boone sighting? :help:

[Muggerd]

Do we have a Bob Boone sighting? :help:

:help:

[AtomicDumpling]

Jimbo,

I am guessing you haven't read the whole thread. It has been shown conclusively in this thread that the Reds will have about $25 million to spend this offseason even if they keep both Dunn and Griffey. This accounts for all the salary raises of current players. They will have that $25 million to spend without raising the payroll at all.

The only decent starting pitchers that will be free agents this winter are Carlos Zambrano, Jason Jennings and Freddy Garcia. Zambrano will probably get $20 million per year, so the Reds are unlikely to go after him. Garcia is frequently injured and just not that good to begin with. Jennings could be an attractive option -- for us and every other team, so he will be expensive too. Hopefully we can get one of those guys.

Good relief pitchers are going to be very scarce (and expensive) this winter too. It is unrealistic to expect the Reds to improve the pitching much at all this winter by hiring free agents. It just is not going to happen no matter how much the Reds have to spend. You can't buy something that isn't there.

The Reds are going to have to fix the pitching the hard way -- draft, trade for and develop quality young pitchers. This is going to take years. In the meantime the Reds will have to outscore our pitching staff. Ditching a huge portion of our offense by getting rid of Adam Dunn will doom the Reds to more losing seasons.

[Muggerd]

Jimbo,

I am guessing you haven't read the whole thread. It has been shown conclusively in this thread that the Reds will have about $25 million to spend this offseason even if they keep both Dunn and Griffey. This accounts for all the salary raises of current players. They will have that $25 million to spend without raising the payroll at all.

The only decent starting pitchers that will be free agents this winter are Carlos Zambrano, Jason Jennings and Freddy Garcia. Zambrano will probably get $20 million per year, so the Reds are unlikely to go after him. Garcia is frequently injured and just not that good to begin with. Jennings could be an attractive option -- for us and every other team, so he will be expensive too. Hopefully we can get one of those guys.

Good relief pitchers are going to be very scarce (and expensive) this winter too. It is unrealistic to expect the Reds to improve the pitching much at all this winter by hiring free agents. It just is not going to happen no matter how much the Reds have to spend. You can't buy something that isn't there.

The Reds are going to have to fix the pitching the hard way -- draft, trade for and develop quality young pitchers. This is going to take years. In the meantime the Reds will have to outscore our pitching staff. Ditching a huge portion of our offense by getting rid of Adam Dunn will doom the Reds to more losing seasons.
I know we have been arguing about this but do you think those runs dunn drives in are just never going to get scored or drove in. We will need to find a little bit of a replacement of course but those runs will still be there. The Runs he scores will be a little harder to replace of course though.