We WILL win the division THIS YEAR!!!

[PMand JM]

Gotta Believe :)

[zacharync]

I sure could go for a Cubs loss tonight

[durl]

Best record in the NL since July 3rd...pretty amazing.

In this division, who knows what can happen? But zacharync is right, we need Chicago to go through a little slide.

[Muggerd]

Best record in the NL since July 3rd...pretty amazing.

In this division, who knows what can happen? But zacharync is right, we need Chicago to go through a little slide.

Hopefully we can sweep them out

[jmac]

If people are gonna talk about the Braves/Phils/Yanks, then we are getting in the same range.
Cubs down 2-0 BTW.:D

[Cicero]

Cubs and Brewers losing right now. I wouldn't count on winning the division, but things could get interesting.

[Degenerate39]

Cards beat the Braves today. This could be the first time I've ever wanted the Braves to win.

[AmarilloRed]

I would like to believe it, but our rotation is up in the air and our bullpen is logging too many innings.

[NeilHamburger]

Cubs lose. Only 7 1/2 out! Just think if Pete had been named manager about 2 weeks earlier, I bet we would be within 4 of the lead.

[Degenerate39]

The Brew Crew lost too

[Fullboat]

We got plenty of games with the Cubs,Brewers and Cards so.......

[Screwball]

This is nothing short of absurd. By all rights the Reds should be about 20 games back, pondering who they should take with their top 5 pick next year. Yet here they are, just 7.5 back, gaining ground just about every single night. It's a bit much to expect them to continue this torrid pace, but honestly, at this point, I expect them to win every time they take the field.

[Degenerate39]

We got plenty of games with the Cubs,Brewers and Cards so.......

6 games with the Cubs
6 games with the Brewers
6 games with the Cards
4 games with the Pirates
3 games with the Astros

[gedred69]

This is nothing short of absurd. By all rights the Reds should be about 20 games back, pondering who they should take with their top 5 pick next year. Yet here they are, just 7.5 back, gaining ground just about every single night. It's a bit much to expect them to continue this torrid pace, but honestly, at his point, I expect them to win every time they take the field.

You've said it all. It IS absurd. But I sure get the sense that they really expect to find a way to win everytime they take the field. To over-use a cliche, that was how the '70's team was. If this a team of the willpower to become a team of "destiny", they will get their chance to prove it. As others have pointed out, look at the schedule. They will go toe to toe with the teams they have to get past. (I'm starting to not hate myself for buying a partial season ticket).

[jnwohio]

The way the Brewers are still falling like a rock, if the Reds play .500 from here out they will probably get 3rd unless the Pirates stay hot and get by them. Wouldn't it be something if the Reds and Pirates both end up getting by the Brewers?

2nd (over I am assunming the Cards) seems a bit dicey but not outlandish for the Reds. 1.5 games of the difference between the Reds and Cards right now are games in hand to the Cards. That factor could cut either way and is of course totally out of the Reds control. Cardinals also have a fairly tough out of division schedule left with, at the Dbacks and Phillies in StLouis; but the Reds have Metz for 3 in Cincy and the dreaded annual trip to Frisco for 4 on next to last weekend of the season.

Unless they tank, I think the Cubs will win the division. Not because they are playing the best right now but because the math is just too steep for the Reds and Pirates even if they stay as unlikely hot as they have been for the last 2-3 weeks, while the Brewers are self destructing, and the Cubs showed last week they still can handle the Cards head up. Also Cubbie out of division schedule after tomorrow looks the softest to me (Dodgers at Wirgley and Marlins in Miami)

[Carolina Red]

I think it's a real possibility. I just worry that the pen is going to cost us some more games down the stretch. We've been winning a lot of games lately but most of them we've had to score 8 or 10 runs to win. Maybe in September we will see Homer back and maybe some more help from Louisville.

[Ludwig Reds Fan]

they dont have to win out, but if they can win or split each series from now on...the division is theres.

This is just like last year. Nobody up to wants it. We'll take it. :)

[AmarilloRed]

If we can get any stability in the rotation, we have a chance.

[jmac]

If we can get any stability in the rotation, we have a chance.

That's a big "if" .

[AmarilloRed]

I realize that. It is not like the Brewers or Cubs are dominating the division, however.

[Hey Meat]

Look at who we finish the year with in September on the schedule. With the Pirates coming up and with Soriano hurt for the Cubs, there is a strong chance. The Brewers are awful right now and the Cardinals are not that good either.

[Billy Bates]

At some point the rotation has to contribute (besides Harang and Arroyo that is). This offense will not continue to put up 8+ every time Belisle, Lizard, Shearn, (insert retread here) is on the mound.

[Screwball]

Not trying to rain on anybody's parade here, but according to Baseball Prospectus (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php), the Reds have a 0.50587% chance of making the playoffs.

*takes rain cloud elsewhere*

[stevekun]

Who cares what prospectus says anyways...we believe.

[The Snow Chief]

Not trying to rain on anybody's parade here, but according to Baseball Prospectus (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php), the Reds have a 0.50587% chance of making the playoffs.

*takes rain cloud elsewhere*

So your saying there's a chance

[Screwball]

So your saying there's a chance

Haha, "What was all that 1 in a million talk?"

[Boston Red]

With the win today, the Reds' chances have to be closer to .55% now. Things are really looking up!

[AmarilloRed]

Let's hope the Cubs, Brewers, and Cardinals all lose today. The Cardinals are winning 4-1 in the 6th now though.

[Muggerd]

Its really silly how happy I am right now.

[AmarilloRed]

One thing to remember about this streak is that the offense is carrying it. I saw a graphic where it said the Reds were hitting .314 during this streak(before today), and averaging 7.4 runs a game. With that level of run support, the odds are increased that you will win most games

[Muggerd]

:jump:

[reds44]

http://img251.imageshack.us/img251/3535/july3oh4.png
http://img409.imageshack.us/img409/3936/nowcn3.png

[jmac]

http://img251.imageshack.us/img251/3535/july3oh4.png
http://img409.imageshack.us/img409/3936/nowcn3.png

That is an incredible turnaround.
Things like saturday and today are very important,wining when Harang and Arroyo arent starting. Yeah I would like to win the division but if not, let's at least make the baseball world take notice !

[reds44]

That is an incredible turnaround.
Things like saturday and today are very important,wining when Harang and Arroyo arent starting. Yeah I would like to win the division but if not, let's at least make the baseball world take notice !
Tuesday could be a huge day. Possibily a game and a half swing depending on how things go.

The Reds could be 5 games out by the time we go to bed on Tuesday. Or they could also be 9 out.

[jmac]

Love this quote from Jr after the game:
"The Little Red Wagon is doing all right," Ken Griffey Jr. said, playing off the Big Red Machine teams of the '70s.

[jmac]

We are closer to first than the Yanks and Braves right now !

[Degenerate39]

The Brewers lost today

[Chi-Town Red]

this is pretty unreal....if we can get it under 5 its a good chance to stay in it all the way...

[Chi-Town Red]

anybody know what the odds were in vegas to win the division 2 months ago? must have been at least 100-1

[ChatterRed]

It seems like this team matches up well with the Central.

[Cicero]

Cubs lose! Cubs Lose!

[Degenerate39]

The Cards won
The Cubs and Brewers lose

6 and a half out!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[GoGoWhiteSox]

Whoa boy, this could get interesting...on one hand, I want to see the Reds do well, and I really, truly believe that they can in that weak division. On the other hand, I'm waiting for them to implode...we'll see how things fare out, and I wish them the best. I want to see GABP full in September!:)

[Degenerate39]

Whoa boy, this could get interesting...on one hand, I want to see the Reds do well, and I really, truly believe that they can in that weak division. On the other hand, I'm waiting for them to implode...we'll see how things fare out, and I wish them the best. I want to see GABP full in September!:)

I hope you mean October

[GoGoWhiteSox]

I hope you mean October
If things work out well, then yes.:):thumbup:

[Muggerd]

Its going to be hard to jump 3 teams thats for sure though.

[Degenerate39]

Brewers vs Cubs Tuesday

[Muggerd]

Brewers vs Cubs Tuesday
There is no doubt in my mind we are better than the Brewers so heres to the brewers winning that series.

[reds44]

CENTRAL W L PCT GB HOME ROAD STRK L10
Chicago Cubs 66 63 .512 -.- 33-31 33-32 L2 6-4
Milwaukee 65 65 .500 1.5 40-25 25-40 L4 3-7
St. Louis 63 64 .496 2.0 34-29 29-35 W2 6-4
Cincinnati 60 70 .462 6.5 33-33 27-37 W6 8-2
Houston 58 73 .443 9.0 34-32 24-41 W1 4-6
Pittsburgh 57 72 .442 9.0 29-36 28-36 L1 7-3

[GoReds33]

We can do it. I hope that Livingston can put up some quality starts when he gets back and are 1-2 combo in the pen keeps producing outs. Go Reds!!!

[Muggerd]

We can do it. I hope that Livingston can put up some quality starts when he gets back and are 1-2 combo in the pen keeps producing outs. Go Reds!!!

Livingston is done for the year and probably most of next if its bad.

[GoReds33]

Livingston is done for the year and probably most of next if its bad.Seriously??? I the way I understood it he would be back by the end of next month. That sucks. I guess its time to take it EZ then.:D

[Muggerd]

Seriously??? I the way I understood it he would be back by the end of next month. That sucks. I guess its time to take it EZ then.:D

His injury is a pretty big deal.

[GoReds33]

His injury is a pretty big deal.My bad. I guess I didn't get the memo. Thanks.:)

[Redlegs]

If my math is right, the Reds can end the season with a record of 82-80 if they win every series the rest of the way. To even be mentioning it is nothing short of a phenominal second half.

[GoReds33]

I love the positive attitude of the board lately.

[Redlegs]

I love the positive attitude of the board lately.
It's the only way to be. Glass is half full, brother.

[AmarilloRed]

The board is positive when the Reds play well. It is negative when they don't.

[GoReds33]

It's the only way to be. Glass is half full, brother.
I wish it was the only way to be. Slowly the people that I talk to about the Reds are beginning to come back around. I just wish we could have gotten more people at the park today. With this winning streak people should be fighting over tickets.:beerme:

[Degenerate39]

Here's who the Reds will be playing for the rest of the season:

Pirates 4 games
Cards 3 games
Mets 3 games
Brewers 3 games
Cards 3 games
Brewers 3 games
Cubs 3 games
Giants 4 games
Astros 3 games
Cubs 3 games

Red is home games.

[GoReds33]

Here's who the Reds will be playing for the rest of the season:

Pirates 4 games
Cards 3 games
Mets 3 games
Brewers 3 games
Cards 3 games
Brewers 3 games
Cubs 3 games
Giants 4 games
Astros 3 games
Cubs 3 games

Red is home games.Does anybody else think we will sweep the Pirates? I have got a good feeling about this.:)

[Degenerate39]

Does anybody else think we will sweep the Pirates? I have got a good feeling about this.:)

Harang and Arroyo are both pitching in that series. Lizard is opening it and Belisle is some where in the mix. I think they can

[ChatterRed]

Woo-hoo!

But this is getting fun.

[GoReds33]

Right you are. I'm as excited now as I was this time last year.

[Redlegs]

Does anybody else think we will sweep the Pirates? I have got a good feeling about this.:)The only thing that worries me is the fact the Reds face two left handers in the double header and the fact they play a double header. They seem to be hard to sweep, however, the Reds are playing better than anyone in the NL right now. I'd love to see them take 3 of 4 in Pitt.

[AmarilloRed]

At least we won't have many games against the NL West this year. They pretty much eliminated us last year.

[GoReds33]

The only thing that worries me is the fact the Reds face two left handers in the double header and the fact they play a double header. They seem to be hard to sweep, however, the Reds are playing better than anyone in the NL right now. I'd love to see them take 3 of 4 in Pitt.Four of four would be better. I would love to keep the streak alive through Pitt. Does anybody know what the longest win streak of the year in the NL was? I would like to see the Reds win 25 in a row. Thats thinking positive. I think .500 for the year is no where near out of the question. Go Reds!!!:)

[ChatterRed]

Woo-hooo!!!! :thumbup:

[keeganbrick]

We control our own destiny in Sept. Since we have the best 3-4-5 pitchers in the NL i think we can win it all.

[Vada Pinson Fan]

C'mon. Reality check time. Do you see the Cardinals NOW just 2 games behind? Please, no revisit of this Card's team making it to the playoffs. We all know what happened last year when St.Louis got into the playoffs. The Brewers and Cubs are choking BIG TIME!

Please don't let the Cardinals win this division again this year.

[mound_patrol]

C'mon. Reality check time. Do you see the Cardinals NOW just 2 games behind? Please, no revisit of this Card's team making it to the playoffs. We all know what happened last year when St.Louis got into the playoffs. The Brewers and Cubs are choking BIG TIME!

Please don't let the Cardinals win this division again this year.

Is it really choking when you aren't that good. This division doesn't have a good team in it. They all have a ton of flaws. It's going to come down to who finishes the season hot.

[stevekun]

The reds are in the chase now baby!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Muggerd]

Is it really choking when you aren't that good. This division doesn't have a good team in it. They all have a ton of flaws. It's going to come down to who finishes the season hot.

I agree but the Cubs still scare me a little and I really cant count out the cards.

[scounts22]

This is seriously exciting!!! If they keep playing the way they are now, it's going to be an exciting September. How many of us actually thought this would be possible after all of the melt downs of the bullpen? I really believe they have a chance. I attended the entire series this weekend against the Marlins and it was so fun to have the crowd into the game down to the very last out. Seeing everyone stand up and make noise in the bottom of the
9th with 2 outs was awesome. The team is playing great!!!

[Maldez]

I think it's just incredible what Pete MacKanin has done with this team. These guys are out there every day having fun again and believing they're as good as any team in the league, after Jerry Narron had all but signed their death certificates.

It's great to be a Reds fan again!

[Boston Red]

All the ridiculous losses to Leatherpants' squad are going to come back and haunt this team.

[Screwball]

All the ridiculous losses to Leatherpants' squad are going to come back and haunt this team.

Ain't that the truth.

[CincinnatiKid]

a lot of the losses are gonna haunt us.

[tbball10]

a lot of the losses are gonna haunt us.

u can always say a few games got u, but we took 6 of 7 from the braves so it evens out i guess.

[Natty Redlocks]

I can't believe those idiots traded Kyle Lohse. No faith in their own team whatsoever, now they're doomed.

Just kidding. But I can't see a two man starting rotation winning even this division.

[Blue]

Bailey, Cueto, and Maloney. 2 of those 3 should be up and either learning how to pitch or helping this team get to the playoffs. They couldn't be much worse than the current 3, 4, 5.

[BigREDSfaninKY]

I find what's even better, is that even 6 1/2 games back, the 4 letter network won't acknowledge the Reds are in the race. Saying that St Louis has the bottom 3 teams in the division coming up on their schedule. I guess they fail to realize that even the 'Stros and Pirates are only 9 back. This division is that bad.

Come on Reds!!! I BELIEVE!!!!

[mroby85]

The board is positive when the Reds play well. It is negative when they don't.


exactly, and that is what you would expect!
the reds have great fans, they just need to give them a reason to be happy.

[Marge'sMullet]

IF they sweep the Pirates then instead of 6.5 out they could be 3. Now that would be interesting.

[TheWalls]

IF they sweep the Pirates then instead of 6.5 out they could be 3. Now that would be interesting.

Nope. If the Cubs lose the series to the Brewers and we sweep the Bucs, we'd be 5 back of the Brewers. This is the problem with being behind three teams that are all playing one another the rest of the way out - one of the teams wins every time they play one another.

[durl]

Back when the Reds were 20 games under .500 I figured "salvaging" a positive for the year would be finishing better than 10 games under. I thought it was a very lofty goal, yet here we are on the verge.

We may not win the division, but being the best team in the majors for this long stretch sure makes it feel good to be a Reds fan.

[ThirdBaseCoach]

Bailey, Cueto, and Maloney. 2 of those 3 should be up and either learning how to pitch or helping this team get to the playoffs. They couldn't be much worse than the current 3, 4, 5.
Keep an eye on Cueto, we may see him sooner than later. The other two have to learn how to pitch in the minors first.

[ThirdBaseCoach]

The board is positive when the Reds play well. It is negative when they don't.

The secret to serenity is to even out the highs and lows. Stay calm and limit the mental peaks and valleys.

Remember that this is entertainment, not life or death. When the entertainment is good, enjoy it. If not so good, find something else to do, don't complain about it.

[goreds2]

From another website:

"On a national sports radio show this morning, I heard ESPN baseball writer Buster Olney actually say that the Reds have a shot at the NL Central title."

This is at least getting interesting. For the first time since April, I checked to see what the other teams in the division did last night. :thumbup:

[goreds2]

From the Enquirer: (Not the National Enquier since all this seems kind of crazy :) )

The Reds are as close to first place as they've been since they were seven games back after April 30.

Under Pete Mackanin, they are 29-19, the best record in the major leagues in that time. Here's where they stood the day before Mackanin's first game, and today:

NL CENTRAL
(AFTER GAMES OF JULY 2)

Team W-L Pct. GB
Brewers 48-34 .585 -
Cubs 41-40 .506 61/2
Cardinals 37-42 .468 91/2
Astros 36-47 .434 121/2
Pirates 35-47 .427 13
Reds 31-51 .378 17

NL CENTRAL
(BEGINNING JULY 3)

Team W-L Pct.
Reds 29-19 .604
Cardinals 26-22 .542
Cubs 25-23 .521
Pirates 22-25 .468
Astros 22-26 .458
Brewers 17-31 .354


NL CENTRAL
(TODAY)

Team W-L Pct. GB
Cubs 66-63 .512 -
Brewers 65-65 .500 11/2
Cardinals 63-64 .496 2
Reds 60-70 .462 61/2
Astros 58 -73 .443 9
Pirates 57-72 .442 9

Central showdowns The Reds have six games left with all three teams ahead of them:

CUBS
at Chicago, Sept. 17, 18, 19
vs. Chicago, Sept. 28, 29, 30

BREWERS
vs. Milwaukee, Sept. 7, 8, 9
at Milwaukee, Sept. 14, 15, 16

CARDINALS
at St. Louis, Aug. 31
at St. Louis, Sept. 1, 2
vs. St. Louis, 11, 12, 13

A pipe dream? The Reds' chances of winning the Central are complicated by the fact they trail three teams. If the Reds went 22-10 to get to 82-80, the Cubs would have to go 16-17 for the Reds to tie - and that's not counting whatever the Brewers and Cardinals do.

The week ahead After today's off day, the Reds will play seven games in six days:

Tuesday: at Pittsburgh (DH), 5:05 p.m.

Wednesday: at Pitt., 7:05 p.m.

Thursday: at Pittsburgh, 7:05 p.m.

Friday: at St. Louis, 8:10 p.m.

Saturday: at St. Louis, 7:15 p.m.

Sunday: at St. Louis, 2:15 p.m.

[Muggerd]

Its only a matter of time before we are swept in the playoffs by the mets.

[reds44]

Its only a matter of time before we are swept in the playoffs by the mets.
Honestly, I would be thrilled if we got in and got swept.

Just get in.

[Muggerd]

Honestly, I would be thrilled if we got in and got swept.

Just get in.

exactly

[FlightRick]

This is the problem with being behind three teams that are all playing one another the rest of the way out - one of the teams wins every time they play one another.

Well, then we just have to make sure that none of those teams ever wins when they play US.

Of all the Kooky Talk on this thread, perhaps the kookiest observation one could make is that if we go into this weekend's series with the Cards 6 games out or less, we could, in a sense, be said to "control our own destiny." Three teams ahead of us or no.

Of course, the "we" in this case still only includes two Actual Major League Starting Pitchers, so I'm still trying to keep from getting ahead of myself for the time being....

[mound_patrol]

Its only a matter of time before we are swept in the playoffs by the mets.

nah, we'd beat maine and el duque...we'd just be beat by glavin and perez each time.

[GoReds33]

This morning on espn they finally showed how many games back they are on the ticker at the bottom. You have to be in contention to be on that. Go Reds!!!

[Screwball]

Of course, the "we" in this case still only includes two Actual Major League Starting Pitchers, so I'm still trying to keep from getting ahead of myself for the time being....

Yeah, when Matt Belisle is your #3 - and is head and shoulders above any other option the Reds have - you have to question just how long the Reds can keep up this insanely hot streak.

[CincinnatiKid]

My only major concern at the moment is how this off-day will affect the Reds' bats. Their lumber has been what's keeping this streak alive for the most part. Will a day off hurt their rythm, like it's done in the past when the Reds have shown signs of life?

[Stingray]

To keep things in perspective - the Reds would have to go 21-11 in order to finish .500 and .500 probably won't win it since at least one of the three teams ahead of them will undoubtedly finish above .500.

Not an impossibility - but extremely unlikely. To finish four games above .500, for example, the Reds would have to go 23-9 and even that probably wouldn't be enough to win the central.

I certianly wouldn't sacrifice 08 and 09's prospects on those odds.

We can still enjoy the ride however.

[Hey Meat]

This is totally unexpected and awesome. Pete should get the job in my book. I wish Narron would have gotten the axe a month earlier. The Reds would be in first in the Central if Narron was fired after Memorial Day.

[goreds2]

I certianly wouldn't sacrifice 08 and 09's prospects on those odds.

We can still enjoy the ride however.

The "kids" are out there having fun being in the Majors. Just do not tell them what's at stake. ;)

This is just cool to be somewhat in contention. We just cannot be swept in this double header against the Pirates. (I know, I jinxed us. :eek:)

[improbus]

The "kids" are out there having fun being in the Majors. Just do not tell them what's at stake. ;)

This is just cool to be somewhat in contention. We just cannot be swept in this double header against the Pirates. (I know, I jinxed us. :eek:)

Yes, you did...

[uoduck1017]

The "kids" are out there having fun being in the Majors. Just do not tell them what's at stake. ;)

This is just cool to be somewhat in contention. We just cannot be swept in this double header against the Pirates. (I know, I jinxed us. :eek:)

Yikes, poor kid. That was a serious jinx. It looks like other teams sure are having fun against our pitching. I saw a stat in tonight's game thread that read: 32 IP, 32 ER. That's our pitching staff's line for the month of September. :eek:

[AmarilloRed]

I previously mentioned we did not have the starting pitching to contend, and I was proved correct. We were sustained by our offense and our bullpen during the streak, and they have come back to Earth

[The Cowboy]

What brought us down to earth was Ross and Gonzo coming back taking away at bats from hot hitters. Even though Gonzo hasnt done bad since coming back I just cant stand seeing Kep sitting for a strikeout waiting to happen in Alex Gonzalez... This and the fact we have Shearn and Dumatrait starting against a team managed by Tony LaRussa..