From ORG: The State Of The Reds

[757690]

JoJo posted this on the Old Red Guard, and I thought it deserved some attention by us deemed not worthy enough.

"Hey all. This was posted by Lance McAllister on his blog today:

Quote:
Originally Posted by lance"the counting stats guy"
This Reds job is now more attractive to potential managers than it was two months ago. I was told at the time of Narron's firing that two unemployed "potential" candidates would not touch this situation during the 2007 season because of how big a mess it was. That mess isn't as messy now.
I've enjoyed every second of the Pete Mackanin era so far but I don't think '08 is any brighter now than it was for the team before PM took the helm. I'd argue that the Reds situation today hasn't changed at all from what it was 2 months ago with the exception that now their W-L record is in line with their pythag record. It's the same personnel, same farm, same FO, same prevailing philosophy and MO.

In general we as fans make way too much of results in relatively small time frames. This team after July 3rd is no more fixed/turning a corner this year than the roster that was 12 games over .500 during the first half of the '06 season had turned a corner last season. In essence we're seeing that happy side of random. (BTW, RMR authored a great post on true skill level and randomness here)

I'd submit that any managerial candidate that now would consider the job when he wouldn't have 2 months ago should automatically be crossed off of the list of potential candidates because to have that view necessitates an approach to player evaluation that would make them closer to part of the problem than part of the solution.

So what do you think?"

[uoduck1017]

It's tough because part of me says hire Pete for a one-year deal because the team seems to be showing signs of life. However, it's hard to ignore the Reds interim manager merry-go-round that leaves the fans not so merry.

[ChatterRed]

You win some, you lose some when it comes to personnel and managers.

They just flat out had a lousy team when they hired Miley. I was against hiring Narron based on his previous record as a manager.

I am for hiring Mackanin. I like what he has done.

I disagree that 40 games is a short time frame to see a different team. I can only wonder what this team might have done had Narron not been the manager or fired sooner.

[Chi-Town Red]

give Mack a one year deal...and go from there

[Orenda]

give Mack a one year deal...and go from there

Give him september, and go from there.

[Redhook]

Give him september, and go from there.

Yes. If he has a successful September, then look into giving him a 1 year contract, assuming there are no better candidates.

However, if he miraculously gets this team to the playoffs, then give him the contract he wants.

[Moosie52]

If the Reds had gone .500 in May,they would be in first place now. Heck, if they'd only been 5 games under .500 in May, they would be sitting pretty. I'd expect Pete to get a one year deal to manage the team.

[ThirdBaseCoach]

Pete will have more opportunities after the season. He may not want to come back to the Reds. He could be looking to go with a "proven winner."

[steig]

If we sign Pete then we are repeating history and bound for the same results in the long term. Not just because we hired a bargain basement manager but because management would have again sold us, the fans, on hope without really addressing the problems of the team. If we stand for this again then we are the fools. I want to see the team go after a big time manager as a sign that they are willing to rebuild this team as needed in order to truly compete for a world series.

[ThirdBaseCoach]

If we sign Pete then we are repeating history and bound for the same results in the long term. Not just because we hired a bargain basement manager but because management would have again sold us, the fans, on hope without really addressing the problems of the team. If we stand for this again then we are the fools. I want to see the team go after a big time manager as a sign that they are willing to rebuild this team as needed in order to truly compete for a world series.

Who are your three choices for "big time" manager?

[AmarilloRed]

It is all going to depend on what Pete does in September.

[Jim]

This feels like Miley all over again. Pete finishes off the season and, if he does well, is added to a list of experienced managers to interview. I'm impressed with him so far, but I want to see some level of evidence that whomever we hire will bring the right short term and long term strategy to the club.

[Muggerd]

Give him september, and go from there.

winner

[757690]

I was hoping this thread would be about the state of the Reds, and not Pete's job. Are they really a changed team from the beginning of the season, or the same and we are just seeing them at a different point in their win/lose arc?
And what does it say about a potential manager that he didn't want to manage the team in June, but now wants to?
I think they are a changed team. They have a lot of new talent...Bray Majewski, Burton, Keppinger, Hopper. And have lost some deadwood...Moeller, Coffey, Castro, Lohse, Cormier.
But more importantly, they now seem to be more of a team. Players know their role better, and everyone seems to be happy to play for Pete.

[ThirdBaseCoach]

This feels like Miley all over again. Pete finishes off the season and, if he does well, is added to a list of experienced managers to interview. I'm impressed with him so far, but I want to see some level of evidence that whomever we hire will bring the right short term and long term strategy to the club.

Who is on your list of experienced managers? What have you not seen about Pete's strategies for running the team?

[NoColonBoy]

Pete's done a great job, and I love the fact that he makes unconventional decisions ("goes against the book") even when it doesn't work out.

I wouldn't extend him this minute, but he's earned top candidate status.

I hope that fans don't overreact to the Reds' recent surge, though. The rotation is still a mess--even if the bullpen has come together recently. The question on the manager in 2008 and beyond depends a little on the direction of the team. I'm not a big fan of the Jocketty/LaRussa rumors (even if true, I'm not sold on them coming to Cincy), but if the Reds determine to go a route like that--by hiring a new GM, for example--the new GM ought to have the ability to hire his own manager. You can't tie a GM's hands by sticking him with a manager he hasn't selected--you're already probably giving him a short leash to improve the team.

[Dracodave]

The problem with giving Pete the contract he wants is; You're still going to attract the same crappy players we have now. If Stanton retires, we'll just go get someone, whos just as bad, to replace him. It doesn't matter if the state of the Reds goes up or not.

The manager in this case should be the LAST of our worries. Run out a legit starting rotation and a decent batting order..with a minor league system to plug up any holes. THEN talk about the manager.

[ThirdBaseCoach]

The problem with giving Pete the contract he wants is; You're still going to attract the same crappy players we have now. If Stanton retires, we'll just go get someone, whos just as bad, to replace him. It doesn't matter if the state of the Reds goes up or not.

The manager in this case should be the LAST of our worries. Run out a legit starting rotation and a decent batting order..with a minor league system to plug up any holes. THEN talk about the manager.

You have some valid ideas in there somewhere, Dave. It's just that you have discombobulated them.

First, who says Pete wants this job anyway? He may have a chance to go to Houston, since they just let Garner go. I am certain Pete will have other opportunities. Furthermore, players go where they can get the best deal. Most do not have the luxury to choose a team because they like the manager.

You sound upset about pitching; you should trust WK to improve the rotation and the pen. I really mean it.

Improvement will come through a synergistic approach to the problem by working many angles together. Improved pitching, defense, and the right manager are three components of that approach.

[steig]

Who are your three choices for "big time" manager?

I really like the rumored idea of Girardi and Oniel. While I'm not a big fan of Larussa, he is a winner and that will make me accept him should the Reds look at him. And I would like the Reds to possibly talk to Leo Mazzoni. I know he is a pitching coach and under contract with the O's. However, he went there to work with his childhood friend who has been fired...he might entertain the idea of managing. He certainly has been around a winning organization in his past and developed plenty of young pitching.

[SMcGavin]

I was hoping this thread would be about the state of the Reds, and not Pete's job. Are they really a changed team from the beginning of the season, or the same and we are just seeing them at a different point in their win/lose arc?
And what does it say about a potential manager that he didn't want to manage the team in June, but now wants to?
I think they are a changed team. They have a lot of new talent...Bray Majewski, Burton, Keppinger, Hopper. And have lost some deadwood...Moeller, Coffey, Castro, Lohse, Cormier.
But more importantly, they now seem to be more of a team. Players know their role better, and everyone seems to be happy to play for Pete.

I think we are different, just not as different as the record would indicate. Our biggest problem all season was the bullpen. At the beginning of this year we had one reliable guy out there and now we have three in Weathers, Burton, and Bray. As you've mentioned we also dropped some of the junk - Keppinger for Castro is a ridiculous upgrade, Hopper has outperformed Freel, etc. The only downgrade (believe it or not) is the loss of Kyle Lohse - with him this team might be even closer than 6.5 back because Dumatrait never would have made it up here. Our offense isn't that much better than it was before (except the addition of Keppinger), just everyone is on a hot streak at the same time.

I agree completely with what one poster said in ORG - right now I am enjoying this team's success in a micro sense while realizing it may not continue in a macro sense. That said I think there has been an improvement in this team's talent and it's mostly because of Burton and Bray.

[ThirdBaseCoach]

I really like the rumored idea of Girardi and Oniel. While I'm not a big fan of Larussa, he is a winner and that will make me accept him should the Reds look at him. And I would like the Reds to possibly talk to Leo Mazzoni. I know he is a pitching coach and under contract with the O's. However, he went there to work with his childhood friend who has been fired...he might entertain the idea of managing. He certainly has been around a winning organization in his past and developed plenty of young pitching.

O'Neill - although he had an excellent playing career, he has no managing or coaching experience. Not a good choice to go to the Big Leagues for your first job. Perhaps he could benefit by doing some work in the minors, ala Ryne Sandberg - who may be the next surprise candidate for a lot of teams.

Girardi - only one year of managing experience at any level. Joe is an "it's all about me" type of guy. Not suited to working closely with ownership. is not a "proven" entity for whom everyone seems to be yearning.

Tony - perhaps he will go to the ChiSox after Ozzie jumps from the Sears Tower.

Leo "the Rocker" - perhaps as pitching coach but not manager.

[redlegncolorado]

whats with this red guard crap, I'm new to this site & just wannna talk reds baseball. I did'nt know I had to be a "secret society" reds fan to do so! I feel a little underpriveleged & underappreciated here!What's the deal??? Anyways, that was my WTF is this "smug better than you fan" approach rant.

For Pete Mack he is doing a really good job. I'm not against a 1 year ext.

Miley got lucky as an interm,coming off the B.Boone fiasco. I was for Miley,at first but his gameplan was to minor league influenced, Narron went 45-45 as an interm, and for what ever reason he got a ext. the next year. I was totally against Narron's extension(Both exts.),for one main reason his track record. I never liked Narron as a Manager in the MLB. Could'nt even understand his southern mumble jumble. Pete Mack comes in like a Miley situation, "no where to go but up" situation. Boone & Narron were both horrible, with Miley right behind them. Mack has me convinced that he won't fall into the trap that Miley fell into, trying to mold players. Miley's gameplan was to develop players,Mack is letting em' play ball. Pole seems to be improving the pitching situation. I think if he falters by season end NO WAY! I would use Mack as a plan B if I were uppermanagement. Try to get some big name manager who has had big results or use Mack as the plan B. If he gets the team into the playoffs, no doubt he should be rewarded with a ext.The players are responding to him & giving credit were credit is due.

The only thing that really hurts Pete Mack is history itself!

[redlegncolorado]

This is who I want as the next reds manager:

1.Orel Hershiser(One nasty pitcher in MLB & brings credibility, Has a little exp. as a pitching caoch in MLB, & see's all the teams working for ESPN,giving him insider info.If not manager,then a great pitching coach candidate)

2.Dave Duncan(Very good pitching coach while Working under Larussa over the Past years.Knows baseball. Has turned around some careers of some pitchers. He was a catcher in MLB,a pitching coach for some very good pitching staffs, his son C.Duncan has became a solid young player,(therefore a fruit of his fathers labor) he knows the N.L Central pitching,etc.., and with all that exposure to Larussa he has had to be there in the mix.Larussa may be out of baseball next season)

3.Paul O'neil(Brings Fire,credibility,(as a champion baseball player)Knows the game, and could be the spark plug this franchise needs. People have to start somewhere.He lives in Cincy too.)


4.Joe Giradi(Good Choice, but not sure. I like his fire,his baseball mind, he apprenticed under J.Torre, MLB N.L manger of the year in 06', & he's working in media, which keeps him up to date with the league)

5.Ron Oester(Ronny O was a mediocore ballplayer, but so were some of the great mangers. I think he deseves a chance to be considered. I here he is real firey.)

Overall I think the reds real problems are in the pitching.The hitting is always there.A manager with a pitching mind,could just be the saviour of this team.

[jnwohio]

About potential managers......

If Mackanen continues to the end of the season as well as he has done to date, that performance pretty well trumps what Girardi accomplished in his one year as a manager. Just like there is a false perception that Miley had a winning record in his interim, it gets lost that Girardi also had a losing record in his year with Marlins.

After 4 or 5 former catchers in a row (starting with McKeon thru Narron), Orel H. might be an interesting choice; but again like Pete would be, he would be an unproven one.

Dave Duncan has also crossed my mind; but he and LaRussa have been together forever. Even if LaRussa leaves StLouis, Duncan might well go with him; or the Cards might just latch onto him if the two part company.

[ThirdBaseCoach]

About potential managers......

If Mackanen continues to the end of the season as well as he has done to date, that performance pretty well trumps what Girardi accomplished in his one year as a manager. .......After 4 or 5 former catchers in a row (starting with McKeon thru Narron), Orel H. might be an interesting choice; but again like Pete would be, he would be an unproven one.

Pete Mackanin has a winning record after managing close to 2,000 games across all levels of the minors, has been named Minor League Manager of the Year, has managed many seasons of winter ball in Venezuela, Puerto Rico, The Dominican Republic, etc., and won the Caribbean World Series. He is not "unproven" - he knows how to manage not only the game (the easy part) but the players as well - much more difficult.

Pete speaks fluent Spanish, a big advantage when dealing with the Latin players. His Resume is extensive and overshadows most of the other contenders for the Reds' job.

[redlegncolorado]

Pete Mackanin has a winning record after managing close to 2,000 games across all levels of the minors, has been named Minor League Manager of the Year, has managed many seasons of winter ball in Venezuela, Puerto Rico, The Dominican Republic, etc., and won the Caribbean World Series. He is not "unproven" - he knows how to manage not only the game (the easy part) but the players as well - much more difficult.

Pete speaks fluent Spanish, a big advantage when dealing with the Latin players. His Resume is extensive and overshadows most of the other contenders for the Reds' job.

Great post Thirdbasecoach, I didn't know Pete Mack spoke Spanish,that's a huge plus. Plus his resume' aint to shabby. I knew he had some experience in the minors but those #'s you posted were pretty solid.

[Barney]

Anyone who lives in Columbus should recall the lively arguments during the search for Cooper's replacement for the Ohio State football coach's position. The media and "talking heads" all seemed to want a candidate who enjoyed the "Big Name", and major college experience. There were a lot of folks who were very unhappy when the announcement was made that Jim Tressel was to be the new head coach. Of course it was pointed out that Tressel was a division two coach, which wasn't adequate experience for such a glorious program of Ohio State. Tressel's national championship in his second season seems to have erased many of those doubts.
It seems to me that Pete Mackanin is pretty much in the same position. He has a tremendous background in baseball, but everyone wants the flashier, better known, candidate.
Put me in Pete's corner. All the chit-chat about how the Reds just have to improve in other areas ignores the obvious. In the admittedly short period that Mackanin has been the manager, (interim or not), his results have been remarkable. As a matter of fact, the results have been so good that it would be silly to bet the house on them continuing for the rest of the season. Never the less, that's what we are all hoping for. Not only has Mackanin seemingly found the formula to change the attitude of the players, but he has succeeded in also changing the attitude of many of the Red Zoners.
When Sparky Anderson was hired, the headlines read "Sparky Who?" I'm quite certain that when Pete Mackanin was placed in the interim position the guys in Boston, New York, and at Sports Illustrated, and ESPN, were each asking, "Pete Who?"