The Tom Shearn Thread , or "Is 30 too Young?"

[AmarilloRed]

I realize my thread title is a little silly, but let's give Tom Shearn some love. He is 2-0 in 3 starts, 14 hits allowed in 17 1/3 IP, 6 runs , 6 earned, 7 walks, 8 strikeouts, and a sparkling era of 3.12. I am not saying Tom Shearn is a long term answer in the rotation, but certainly he is good enough to hold down of the 3-5 rotation slots next year. I concede it is a small sample size, and I will be watching how he does the rest of September. For right now, however, Tom Shearn is doing just fine.

[BEETTLEBUG]

I Agree It Is Called Maturity.

[UK Reds Fan]

Unfortunately....there is hardly any competition for the 3-5 spots.

1. Belisle's plus 5 ERA
2. Ramirez off major arm problems
3. Livingston just having career dooming labrum
4. Bailey...nobody knows what happened to him after July
5. Cueto....appears to need another 1/2 year in minors before we know for sure
6. Phil Dumtrait....terrible looking in handful of starts and not all that impressive in minors to begin with.
7. Do the Reds have any money to sign even a cheapie starter off the re-tread pile or elsewhere?

Shearn is probably pitching himself into rotation as we speak by default almost. Sad state of affairs in Red's rotation.

[Redhook]

but certainly he is good enough to hold down of the 3-5 rotation slots next year.

He is? He might be one of the top 5 currently, but if the Reds are planning on him being one of the 5 starters next year then they're in big trouble. Hopefully, Shearn will only make a spot start or two next year.


For right now, however, Tom Shearn is doing just fine.

He is doing fine and it's nice to see someone do well after waiting so long to reach the majors. I hope he finishes the season well. I just don't see him being one of the starters next year.

[Orenda]

Im glad he pitched well, but lets not pencil him into next year's rotation after 3 starts. You might remember Chris Michalak initally pitched well before the league caught up to him.

[texasdave]

:clap: Tom Shearn :clap: For a job well-done yesterday.

[AmarilloRed]

He is? He might be one of the top 5 currently, but if the Reds are planning on him being one of the 5 starters next year then they're in big trouble. Hopefully, Shearn will only make a spot start or two next year.



He is doing fine and it's nice to see someone do well after waiting so long to reach the majors. I hope he finishes the season well. I just don't see him being one of the starters next year.

Who else is there? We can not count on Bailey or Cueto being ready by next year. EZ has not been impressive and Dumatrait is not even in the discussion. Belisle is good enough to have one of the spots until someone else shows up, and Livingston will not be ready because of injury. Maloney is a possibility, and we do not know if the Reds will pick up any SP in free agency. I did say it was a small sample size, and that I wanted to see how he didin the month of September. I really hope Cueto, Bailey or Maloney can make the rotation in spring training. Otherwise , we might all see Shearn in the starting rotation next year.

[Dunner44]

Tom has a NASTY 12-6 drop on his curve and spots his other balls decently. I like him, lets see what he does. He might want to work on his game planning if he's going to keep pitching in the bigs, however. Sounds like he was completely reliant on Javy to call the game. Not bad, since thats a catcher's job, but he needs to know his opponents as well.

[bounty37h]

I like what he has done, and his approach. I am all for cheering the man on and seeing what else he can do!

[SMcGavin]

Interestingly enough Shearn came up through the organization as a reliever. As recent as last year over half of his appearances were in relief. I'm rooting for the guy but as Redhook said, if the Reds are counting on him to be in the rotation next year we have a serious problem. Shearn had an ERA over 4 in Louisville and has been pretty lucky up here thus far (8:7 K:BB ratio). But you have to give him credit for a great job thus far and he has earned some more starts this September.

[GoReds33]

Maturity can make a big difference. Thats what makes the difference between Harang and Lohse. I think this guy could be a contributer out of the pen. If he is in our long term plans we have a major problem. What would that say about the direction of this franchise?

[jnwohio]

Shearn seems to have his head on straight and feet on the ground. He was quoted in the Dayton Daily as hoping to work his way into the picture for next season as the long man/ spot starter. From what we have seen so far, he sure beats Victor Santos/ Mike Gosling all to heck for that job.

I have read and heard it said that aside from the sure fire prospects on their way up, AAA is largely populated by guys like Shearn. Just who gets the shots at the big show and who never really does can often be decided almost as much by whims, luck, and organizational politics as by distinction in performace. I think Shearn was categorized as at his ceiling and they kept passing over him at AAA becasue they had guys they felt had higher ceilings.

However, I don't think he would necessarily be a disaster as a #5. He looks like he can eat innings and keep them close. What more can a team ask from a #5? That is cerrtainly more than the Reds have gotten with consistency from their 3 and 4 spots (and at spells even Arroyo) this year.


As for next year a lot probably depends on how the Reds see themselves positioned. If they feel like they are legit contenders in the NL Central, they will probably go with a vet like Shearn in the #5 slot and hold one of the kids down at AAA for more development (to be brought up later if need be). If they see themselves a year away from contention, they will probably use the kids at the big club to fill out as on the job training.

[jhiller21]

I hate to rain on the proverbial parade, but a pitcher like Shern won't usually last longer than 3-5 starts in the bigs. There's an old poem my grandpa used to tell me...

In the minors through 20? your arm must feel funny

Not there by 25? Stop throwing ball five

A rookie at 30? My glove is sure dirty

Big leagues at 40, Jesus I'm old...

[Will M]

I'm rooting for the guy but as Redhook said, if the Reds are counting on him to be in the rotation next year we have a serious problem. Shearn had an ERA over 4 in Louisville and has been pretty lucky up here thus far (8:7 K:BB ratio).

Agree.

The sad thing is that the Reds have no one younger with some upside to gets major league experience in September.
Livingston was showing some promise. Now with him down we are looking at EZ, Belisle, & Bailey as candidates for spots 3-5 in 2008.
IMO the Reds need TWO decent starters ( along with Harang and Arroyo ) if they want to win in 2008. One could be gotten via free agency ( ie Silva or Schilling on a 1-2 year deal ) and the other gotten via a trade of Griffey ( with Bruce taking over in RF ).

[scounts22]

I will say that I was at his debut, sitting right by the bullpen. Before the game, he took his time coming out. He looked around, seemingly taking it all in. He appeared calm and confident, went through his warm up, and went about his business on the mound. I was impressed with him. I wish him continued success!

[AmarilloRed]

He has had a good start. Let's see if he can improve on it the rest of September. I would very much like us to pick up 2 quality free agent SP in the off-season, but I realize the FA market is weak. I also wonder if we would get a quality SP for Griffey at his age. Shearn would not be my first choice as a starter next year, but I am not sure what other options we have.

[steig]

Shearn has done a good job so far, but let's not forget that Belisle has had good stretches before and even Milton was able to put together a couple of good starts in the past. Shearn is not the answer for this team, if the Reds were to really consider him a strong candidate for next years rotation then we might as well write off the season now. I would much rather have Bailey or Cueto in there and to have them get big league learning experience.

[AmarilloRed]

2 IP, 4 hits, 3 runs, 3 earned, 1 walks, 1 strikeout, and his ERA rose to 4.19. He did not fare so well today , and after all the nice things I said about him:) . He may have been affected by pitching on short rest though

[jnwohio]

2 IP, 4 hits, 3 runs, 3 earned, 1 walks, 1 strikeout, and his ERA rose to 4.19. He did not fare so well today , and after all the nice things I said about him:) . He may have been affected by pitching on short rest though

But this was probably an important (and poor) outing for him if he is to be considered as a long man next year.

[UPRedsFan]

Wow. I used to think long relief man at best or AAA insurance in case of injuries. But he's starting to make me think he's a legitimate #5 candidate next year. Impressive start tonight. He seems to have the confidence of a veteran. I guess being 30 will do that for a guy.

He reminds me of Rick Mahler somewhat. Could he be a reliable #5 starter with that big curve and change of speeds and put up an ERA in the high 4's? Obviously Wayne still needs to get a solid #3 in the off season

[Maldez]

What Shearn has done the last few games just baffles me. It almost looks like he's soft-tossing the ball for HR Derby but guys are swinging right through his 88 mph fastball.

Obviously, he's gotten very good at changing speeds and locating his ball. He makes pitching look easy.

[Will M]

Reds 2008 rotation:

1. Harang
2. Arroyo
3. ???
4. ???
5. Belisle, Shearns, or EZ (whoever wins the job in spring training)
Bailey & Cueto start in AAA

Pencilling in a 30 year old rookie for any spot other than #5 is foolhardy.

[Jefferson24]

Pencilling in a 30 year old rookie for any spot other than #5 is foolhardy.

Considering how poor as the pitching was this year, we shouldn't frown on anybody that has shown some hint of success. We are going to have to fill that rotation out from our organization. The FA market is not affordable and I doubt we want to trade away our talent. Until he shows he that he cant succeed we should consider Shearn for the 3 or 4 spot. He has pitched better than anyone else we have tried in the 3,4 or 5 spots so far this year.

[texasdave]

No matter what happens from here on out, you have to be happy for Tom Shearn. He has perservered, and is now acquitting himself admirably in the Show. :beerme:

[durl]

No matter what happens from here on out, you have to be happy for Tom Shearn. He has perservered, and is now acquitting himself admirably in the Show. :beerme:

+1.

He's been a lot of fun to watch. He's not overpowering, but he's got pretty good movement and location and those are the 2 biggies when it comes to pitching. I believe we'll see him in the starting rotation next season.

[AmarilloRed]

6 2/3 IP, 4 hits, 3 runs all earned, 1 walk and 4 strikeouts. He is definitely making a case to stay in the rotation next year. He is now 3-0 ,4. 15 ERA, 5 games 4 starts, 26 IP, 22 hits, 12 runs, 12 earned, 4 hrs, 9 walks, and 13 strikeouts. I worry about him giving up 4 hrs in only 26 IP, but the rest has been pretty impressive.

[jnwohio]

At times it seems like Shearn is walking a tight rope. Becasue his stuff is marginal, he really cannot afford any mistakes. Friday night he had only 3 clear mistakes (the Weeks double, the Fielder homer and the Hart double); and they cost him 3 runs. It has probably been like that for him all along the way for the 10 or 12 years; and, that is why he had trouble gettting an oppurtunity at the Bigs.

However he seems to have developed the mentality to cope and the physical ability to limit the mistakes. It would be nice if some of the teams were facing him more than one to see if he can stay a step ahead of the hitters in his approach. I'd give him a chance. For instance, we only saw that lollipop curve in a hittable zone a couple of times all Friday night. Once Weeks hit the one, the rest of them were low and/ or in the dirt or off the plate. But he was also successfully throwing a tighter breaking pitch I don't recall seeing much of previously to compensate.

Obviously pending how Shearn does in his remaining 3 or 4 starts and offseason moves, I think you pencil him in at #4 or #5 for 2008 and make the in house suspects (Belisle, Ramirez, SaarLoos, Dumatrait) and prospects (Bailey, Cueto, Maloney) beat him out.

[HalMorrisRules]

I have enjoyed seeing Shearn pitch and was at his start against the Mets where he was wonderful. But I just cant see the front office going into spring training with anything more than the opportunity to win a spot and he would have to outperform everyone by a large margin. He will not be penciled into any spot as I dont think anyone after Harang and Arroyo are guaranteed anything. It will be a free for all for the other three spots.

[jnwohio]

I have enjoyed seeing Shearn pitch and was at his start against the Mets where he was wonderful. But I just cant see the front office going into spring training with anything more than the opportunity to win a spot and he would have to outperform everyone by a large margin. He will not be penciled into any spot as I dont think anyone after Harang and Arroyo are guaranteed anything. It will be a free for all for the other three spots.


I don't disagree with this; however, there is always a pecking order going into spring no matter what they say.

What I was meaning to infer was that based on what we have seen at the major league level this year, at the start of spring, Shearn belongs at the top of the pecking order of the guys I listed who have done much less than he with oppurtunies at the big league level this year. The guys who are prospects also need to show they can do more at a higher level before they are moved by Shearn.

There are also going to be (hopefully) one or two guys acquired via trade or free agency who will be considered in the rotation almost solidly as Harang and Arroyo figure to be. Behind this group come our other in house guys. Based on what he is doing right now, Shearn should top that list until somebody moves by him (unlike this year when he was last to get a shot). That is what I meant by "pencilled in".

Mr. Fay of the Enquirer is trying to get a little bit of a Homer Bailey boomlet going (again). Now if Homer has a good "simulated start" start in Sarasota and they bring him up and he has a good start or two in the majors before the season ends, then I think it would be reasonable to put Homer at the top of the field of contenders.

[onefortheroad]

I looked up a little about Tom Shearn:
1. His fastball usually sits between 89-92mph. He touched 91 against the Brewers. (I would bet that his speed is down to to the amount of innings he has thrown, he threw 99 innings last year w/Bats mar-sept06, 74 innings in Mexico for Winter ball from Oct. to mid Dec2006, went to big league camp Feb 14,07, threw 144 innings this year w/Bats, and is now at 26 innings for the Reds). That is 343 innings with 3 months off since March 2006. This would put wear and tear on anyones arm, astronomical for anyone. I have also noticed that the last 3 starts Harang has made he hasn't been clocked over 89mph. It doesn't matter how hard you throw. Look at Coffey and Homer.

2. Look at his career stats. He only allowed 9 homers in 144 innings for the BATS. Great American is a little field. Look at how many HR's Arroyo and Harang have given up.
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/S/Tom-Shearn.shtml

3. No matter his age he still is a MLB rookie. He also is the only starter to record a win against the Mets or Brewers in the last 2 series. And comparing his big league stats to anyone that made their debut this year is like night and day.

4. Compare his career milb numbers to Arroyo. I know ages are different but if you recall Bronson was DFA and released by the Pirates and he didn't have a starting job with the Red Sox when he was traded. Now is having success with the Reds.
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/A/Bronson-Arroyo.shtml

5. The reason Shearn wasn't called up earlier looks like his walks or command was shaky. He walked too many and didn't have the command he has demonstrated the last 3 months.

I'm not ready to make Shearn the Cy Young or rotation savior for the Reds but I wanted to make an informed decision before I talked good or bad about him. One thing I know is that he shows no fear on the mound. Hopefully he keeps it up and competes for a job in the spring. Based on numbers he looks at little more polished and ready to hold a big league job then Bailey, Dumatrait, Gosling, Coffey, Sarloos, and anyone else that hasn't stepped up this year when given the chance.

[AmarilloRed]

Outstanding first post. One thing though, he has given up 4 HRs at GABP in only 26 innings. He may have given up only 9 HRs in 144 innings in Louisville, but GABP is a different stadium. He may be able to live with that HR number, if they are all solo HRs. I would expect Shearn to be the main candidate for 5th starter spot out of spring training.

[lenmccart]

quick slighly related question: How much does a guy like Tom Shearn make in AAA, and then how much does he get since he has been called up to the big squad? I imagine it is quite a pay raise even though it's only for two months.

thanks in advance,
AFW

[texasdave]

quick slighly related question: How much does a guy like Tom Shearn make in AAA, and then how much does he get since he has been called up to the big squad? I imagine it is quite a pay raise even though it's only for two months.

thanks in advance,
AFW

Googled this:The article was from 2005.



The Major League Baseball office handles minor league contracts. It states:

"First contract season: $850/month maximum. After that, open to negotiation

Alien Salary Rates: Different for aliens on visas--mandated by INS (Immigration).

Triple-A--First year: $2,150/month, after first year no less than $2,150/month

Class AA-First year: $1,500/month, after first year no less than $1,500/month

Class A (full season)--First year: $1,050/month, after first year no
less than $1,050/month

Class A (short-season)--First year: $850/month, after first year no
less than $850/month

Dominican & Venezuelan Summer Leagues--no lower than $300/month

Meal Money: $20 per day at all levels, while on the road.