Thoughts on next season - 2008

[ChatterRed]

Well, rather than be all negative, I'm going to take a positive approach and say that depending on what I saw the second half and what I think/hope will happen in the offseason, I see the Reds being the surprise team in the Central next season and here's why:

1. Adam Dunn. They will pick up Dunn's option and he will have a career year. He is in his prime and will be showcasing himself for free agency. The Reds may bite and try and sign him longterm, but he will still have a career year. Also, the lineup around him will be one of the best since he came up which will also help protect him and make him that much better. Plus, my gut feeling is that Adam is maturing and trying to become a better fielder and hitter based on his second half.

2. Griffey's last season. The move to RF helped his health for the most part. I think he will have a solid season being his last season. The big question will be - will he retire at the end of the season or will he move on to another team? Will he try and prove he can stay healthy 2 seasons in a row and still produce - putting up good numbers or will he decline with age and be ready to call it a career? Also, we will have decent enough backups to spot him once or twice a week if the new manager dares to sit Junior here and there to keep him fresh. Personally, I'd play him 3 games, then sit him, 3 more games, then sit him, to keep him fresh. That means he plays approximately 120 games.

3. Josh Hamilton. He has a year under his belt. Should he come back healthy, I think he has 30 HR 100 RBI potential. I think if he can stay healthy, he will have a huge impact next year, if he's not traded for starting pitching. Still wouldn't surprise me to see Josh traded for a quality starting pitcher and Norris Hopper inserted in CF to become our leadoff hitter. If Junior or Dunn goes down with injury, they bring up Bruce.

4. Brandon Phillips. Showed he can be our RH power hitter between Griffey and Dunn. Showed at a young age that he has a promising future and appears to have the right attitude.

5. Edwin Encarnacion. Showed offensively in the second half that he is the real deal. He's still young, and still around. His defense has improved drastically, and I look for a breakout season from him next year. He will hit 20 plus HR's.

6. Alex Gonzalez. Was solid. It was a shame he was injured and had the problems with his son. But what we saw of him was about what we expected or more. He could probably hit 20-25 HRs in a full season of play.

7. Jeff Keppinger. Proved he is more than a utility player, but probably will be a oft-played utility player next year. And a solid one at that. Good hitter. Solid fielder. A guy that paid his dues and appears to be not looking back at the minors for once in his life. If anyone gets injured, nobody on this board will be complaining having to play Keppinger at any infield spot for anytime unless he hits some major slump, which appears unlikely. Good player to have. Versatile. Glad WK found him. It was a good season to find this guy and know what we have for next season. Gives us the option to save money by releasing guys like Castro and trading maybe Freel.

8. Joey Votto. Well it's a small sample to project big things for him, but I look back at the mediocrity that Denorfia showed and have seen a much better indication that Joey Votto can be a solid major league player. My gut feeling says he is here to stay and will be solid next year, which gives us options with Hatteberg to possible save money considering Keppinger is basically the same player that Hatte is except for being a righthander.

9. David Ross. Not sure what to think about this guy. If he could hit .250 along with 20 HR's, I would take that because of his ability to throw out runners. But I'm not sure he has it in him. I think they give him another season to prove himself as a better hitter. Otherwise, it may be his last with the Reds as they try and upgrade.

10. Aaron Harang. No reason to think he won't keep up his career numbers since they've all been accomplished at GABP. #1 starter.

11. Bronson Arroyo. It's been pointed out that if you eliminate two early bad outings for Bronson that his e.r.a. decreases into the 3.70 area. He suffered from a lack of run production, thus his poor win-loss record. I have confidence in him and noticed that when they don't overpitch him, he has seemed to do better. A good bullpen would help his won-loss record, for sure.

12. Homer Bailey. All indications are that they plan on him being part of the starting rotation next year. Alot of my positive attitude will hinge on this guy being a solid #3 starter. If he fails, so might the Reds. If he can give them 5-6 solid innings, that's all we need. An era under 5.00 would be a good start considering GABP and he's still a rookie.

13. Johnny Cueto. I heard Mo and Greg talking about him and saying that some in the Reds organization say he's ready for the big leagues now. Based on those comments, I am going to be positive and believe he is also a huge factor in the Reds season next year if he gets it done.

14. Tom Shearn. He finally had a bad outing, but I still think between Livingston/Shearn/Belisle or possibly a trade, the 5th starter will be determined. Especially if they would trade Josh Hamilton for a starter.

15. Bullpen. Burton, Bray, Weathers are a good place to start. I'm not sure about the others. I'm hoping they delve into free agency and spend some money in this area. This team needs starting and relief pitching and it will contend. I have faith that WK will do this is the offseason with money saved from Milton and releasing/trading other high priced backups.

I just think this team is on the rise and due to surprise. Look! I made a rhyme!

[Screwball]

14. Tom Shearn. He finally had a bad outing, but I still think between Livingston/Shearn/Belisle or possibly a trade, the 5th starter will be determined. Especially if they would trade Ken Griffey for a starter.


Fixed it for ya.:thumbup:

Overall though, good post. The Reds definitely have a lot of the pieces of the foundation in place. Now they just need to keep filling in the rest.

[GoReds33]

Why if we traded Hamilton would we start Hopper, and not Bruce? I heard he can play center.

[EddieMilner]

If the Reds keep both Griffey and Dunn, there is one question I keep on asking: Who would benefit more from a year at AAA, Bruce or Hamilton?
I keep thinking that the better option would be to give Bruce the year in CF and send Hamilton down to Louisville to get consistent practice on Lefty batting.

[GoReds33]

If the Reds keep both Griffey and Dunn, there is one question I keep on asking: Who would benefit more from a year at AAA, Bruce or Hamilton?
I keep thinking that the better option would be to give Bruce the year in CF and send Hamilton down to Louisville to get consistent practice on Lefty batting.
Hamilton would kill AAA. I would love to see him mash some AAA pitchers, but I would much rather him up here then in the minors.:)

[EddieMilner]

Hamilton would kill AAA. I would love to see him mash some AAA pitchers, but I would much rather him up here then in the minors.:)

Who do you feel would gain more from a year in AAA though? Bruce, who has been there done that, or Hamilton?

I think for their careers, Hamilton.

[RedsMightWin]

Bruce

[EddieMilner]

What truly worries me about the 2008 season is the lack of a true leadoff hitter in the lineup:
C - Ross/JA
1B - Votto
2B - Phillips
3B - EE
SS - Gonzalez
RF - Griffey
CF - Hamilton
LF - Dunn

The Reds need to get a legitimate lead off hitter to get on base consistently. Without a lead off batter, I think its going to be the same results as this year.

[GoReds33]

Who do you feel would gain more from a year in AAA though? Bruce, who has been there done that, or Hamilton?

I think for their careers, Hamilton.I have no clue. Hamilton was pretty good this year, though I would love to see him more against lefties. Bruce is a masher, period. If I had to pick it would be Bruce. No offense to him, but he needs to be the best he can when he comes up. People say he has 30 homer potential, so he needs to develop that potential before he comes up. I don't want him in AAA though.:)

[EddieMilner]

Bruce

would you like to expand on that?

[EddieMilner]

I have no clue. Hamilton was pretty good this year, though I would love to see him more against lefties. Bruce is a masher, period. If I had to pick it would be Bruce. No offense to him, but he needs to be the best he can when he comes up. People say he has 30 homer potential, so he needs to develop that potential before he comes up. I don't want him in AAA though.:)

I can agree with that. I just don't want to have another situation with him sitting against lefties. It seems like the coaching staff felt like that was a week part of his game. Louisville seems like a great place to work that out.

[RedsMightWin]

would you like to expand on that?

Bruce still has a few things to work on according to the AAA manager.

[AmarilloRed]

Bruce did not spend a full year at AAA; it couldn't hurt to refine his game.

[will5979]

I know my thoughts on the 2008 season, I'm cheering for the Yankees. The Reds organization obviously does not care about its fans so why should I waste my time cheering for the one thing I thought Cincy would never become...a modern day Pirates organization.

At least the Yankees give back to their fans...post season every SINGLE year!

[Screwball]

I know my thoughts on the 2008 season, I'm cheering for the Yankees. The Reds organization obviously does not care about its fans so why should I waste my time cheering for the one thing I thought Cincy would never become...a modern day Pirates organization.

At least the Yankees give back to their fans...post season every SINGLE year!

Don't hurt your ankle jumping off the bandwagon...

[will5979]

Don't hurt your ankle jumping off the bandwagon...

In the words of our greatest General George S. Patton...Americans love a winner and will not tolerate a loser...2000 since a winning season, I'm fed up!

[ChatterRed]

I know my thoughts on the 2008 season, I'm cheering for the Yankees. The Reds organization obviously does not care about its fans so why should I waste my time cheering for the one thing I thought Cincy would never become...a modern day Pirates organization.

At least the Yankees give back to their fans...post season every SINGLE year!

Well, I'm sure if you donate $100+ million to the Reds Organization they can add it to their $60-$70 million dollar payroll and purchase you a winner like the Yanks.

Not so sure that the Yanks run of postseasons is all that impressive when you consider their payroll is 2-3-4 times the amount of most MLB clubs.

Give me $200 million and I think I could do a whole lot better than Steinbrenner does. I'm actually shocked they come in second to Boston and don't dominate the World Series every year all things considering.

In fact, they almost seem like a global failure by not winning the whole thing all year considering how much they spend.

[will5979]

I'm actually shocked they come in second to Boston and don't dominate the World Series every year all things considering.

In fact, they almost seem like a global failure by not winning the whole thing all year considering how much they spend.

You have a very valid respectable point...I just respect the fact that George is at least trying to win...I haven't witnessed a Reds organization doing that this entire decade.

I have never in my lifetime seen even 4 consecutive losing seasons...this lack of trying to put a winner on the field by the front office is ruining the great history of the Reds franchise, and it sickens me.

[AmarilloRed]

All teams go through periods of losing seasons. Even the Yankees went through a bad period between the early 60's and the mid 70's. The Reds are going through a bad stretch now, but all of us should see a lot of hope for the near future.

[ChatterRed]

You have a very valid respectable point...I just respect the fact that George is at least trying to win...I haven't witnessed a Reds organization doing that this entire decade.

I have never in my lifetime seen even 4 consecutive losing seasons...this lack of trying to put a winner on the field by the front office is ruining the great history of the Reds franchise, and it sickens me.


I still don't understand equating the Reds with the Yankees. Feel free to explain.

[jnwohio]

ChatterRed, I am about 99% in your corner in this thread but one thing that has happened in last month nags me and I think maybe points a little bit toward perhaps the kind of attitude the other guy is referring to. That would be the Jay Bruce situation.

OK, They did not bring him up at the end of the AAA season because supposedly they were not going to have playing time for him. As it turns out, with 2 and half weeks he probably would have been a starter. I don't agree but still I am OK because hindsight is always 20/20.

However when the situation continues to deteriorate to where with 2 weeks left in the season Buck Coats and Jason Ellison are regulars, might that not be the time to sunmmons forth Bruce?

Then a week later when it is even more desparate they activate a guy who can only pinch run and another guy who was off playing golf instead of Jay Bruce?!?

The possible implications on the managerial situation aside, this last week has gone a long way toward washing away the good feelings about the team heading into next year. I'm guessing if Bruce had been up and playing the last week, between his glove and bat, at least 3 of the 6 (as I write) consecutive losses might have been W's instead.

I don't think winning attitude is something that can be turned off and on at will. In the last 3 weeks it just looks to me like the front office has shut it down and said basically the outcome doesn't matter. And for me that is not OK (especially when they talked of putting their best team on the field versus contenders).

[jmac]

Josh Hamilton:
I really like Josh and I think he is a great story. However, I have my doubts whether he can be counted on for a full season. I posted something similar earlier in the year regarding his Tampa years and so many injuries he came up with. I am just saying that he may be the kind who will play around 100-120 games with several stints on DL.

Adam Dunn:
Pick up option and hopefully re-sign.

Edwin Encarnacion:
For how the season started, he really came around and I believe could be a good RH bat to compliment our lefties.

Brandon Phillips :
I really wanted to see if last year was a fluke.It wasnt.

Votto :
I think he can be something special.

Burton :
Wow what a surprise. Great find !

Shearn/Belisle:
If one of these guys are in the rotation, okay I guess.If both are then apparently the reds will not have improved themselves.

Coffey/Mcbeth/Salmon/Bray/Coutlangous:
Bray didnt do like I was hoping he would so I dont know about him.Coffey really flopped though I thought he was over-rated by some on here. Marcu,Brad , and Jon, maybe a little more experience helps them.

Hopper/Kepp :
If these guys are our bench players in 08 , then we will have a pretty good bench.Toss in Hatteberg and a very good bench.

Freel :
What does everyone think will happen to him in 08 as for as role ?

Harang /Arroyo :
Harang continues to improve and Bronson had a better year than Marty gives him credit for. Before last night, his ERA was 4.22 which should warrant a better record than 9-14.

Bailey:
I really think this kid can have a good 08 and like Harang, continue to improve.

Ross:
Big dissappointment. Couldnt hit but would occasionally catch up with one.

Stanton/Majewski :
If the reds keep them around :lastyear: Stanton doesnt have it and I am wondering if Majewski ever did.

Just some observations. I think many will be saying this off-season the same thing as last , the reds couldnt win the AL east in 08 but with the right moves could make it interesting in the NL central.

[AmarilloRed]

Josh Hamilton:
I really like Josh and I think he is a great story. However, I have my doubts whether he can be counted on for a full season. I posted something similar earlier in the year regarding his Tampa years and so many injuries he came up with. I am just saying that he may be the kind who will play around 100-120 games with several stints on DL.

Adam Dunn:
Pick up option and hopefully re-sign.

Edwin Encarnacion:
For how the season started, he really came around and I believe could be a good RH bat to compliment our lefties.

Brandon Phillips :
I really wanted to see if last year was a fluke.It wasnt.

Votto :
I think he can be something special.

Burton :
Wow what a surprise. Great find !

Shearn/Belisle:
If one of these guys are in the rotation, okay I guess.If both are then apparently the reds will not have improved themselves.

Coffey/Mcbeth/Salmon/Bray/Coutlangous:
Bray didnt do like I was hoping he would so I dont know about him.Coffey really flopped though I thought he was over-rated by some on here. Marcu,Brad , and Jon, maybe a little more experience helps them.

Hopper/Kepp :
If these guys are our bench players in 08 , then we will have a pretty good bench.Toss in Hatteberg and a very good bench.

Freel :
What does everyone think will happen to him in 08 as for as role ?

Harang /Arroyo :
Harang continues to improve and Bronson had a better year than Marty gives him credit for. Before last night, his ERA was 4.22 which should warrant a better record than 9-14.

Bailey:
I really think this kid can have a good 08 and like Harang, continue to improve.

Ross:
Big dissappointment. Couldnt hit but would occasionally catch up with one.

Stanton/Majewski :
If the reds keep them around :lastyear: Stanton doesnt have it and I am wondering if Majewski ever did.

Just some observations. I think many will be saying this off-season the same thing as last , the reds couldnt win the AL east in 08 but with the right moves could make it interesting in the NL central.

You made a lot of good points, and I felt it was important to discuss some of them.

Shearn/Belisle- If the Reds pick up another starting pitcher we will not see both of them. It is doubtful we will see Cueto before mid-season, so you might have to grit your teeth and bear it.

Coffey/McBeth/Bray/Salmon/Coutlangas- A lot to get to. Salmon will be on the roster, McBeth and Coutlangas will if they learn some control, Bray and Coffey need to show a lot in Spring Training.

Freel- If the Reds don't trade Freel for pithing in the off-season, he will be a reserve outfielder for the Reds. They signed him to an extension this year so a trade might be difficult.

Stanton/ Majewski- We might see Stanton for another year because of his contract. Majewski is another story. He is eligible for arbitration and the Reds might decline to offer it. I am never sure with Wayne, though

[jnwohio]

I think one of the biggest ways Stanton is hurting the Reds now is that his (guarenteed) contract for '08 makes it really hard for them to roll the dice on Guardado's option for around the same money.

Given what we have seen in the last month, Easy Eddie is probably a 75% to 80% certainty to be recovered and mowing them down next year as well as he did before the injury. However if the Reds don't exercise that option it is probably going to be with another team. On the other hand if the Reds exercise the option and he comes up snake eyes, that is around $7 million they are down the drain on those two guys.

I think this may be one of the toughest and more important decisions they will make (I am assuming that the Dunn option at this point is a no brainer yes). It is like someone said on the broadcast Friday nite, all the starting pitching in the world only buys them even more of the grief they lived through this year if they can't get the ball and the lead to Burton and Weathers.

[BLEEDS]

Guardado - NO WAY do we pay him $3.5M, we decline the option. We SHOULD try to sign him to a minor league contract - he owes us that for paying him to rehab 80% of the year... $500K with incentives

Stanton - due $3M, worst thing is, if he gets 140 games between 2007 and 2008 - his 2009 Option is VESTED for $2.5M. He's got 68 appearances, with a 6.+ ERA, a 1.64 WHIP and folks batting over .300 against him. WHY IN THE WORLD we keep trotting him out there is beyond me. The best thing we can hope for is that he RETIRES!!!

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[ChatterRed]

Just say no to Guardado.

[stevekun]

I know my thoughts on the 2008 season, I'm cheering for the Yankees. The Reds organization obviously does not care about its fans so why should I waste my time cheering for the one thing I thought Cincy would never become...a modern day Pirates organization.

At least the Yankees give back to their fans...post season every SINGLE year!

The ironic part is that the Yankees don't care about their fans;;;its all about George

[will5979]

I still don't understand equating the Reds with the Yankees. Feel free to explain.

I love an organization with a rich heritage, i.e. the Reds. But when current/previous ownership has ruined that heritage it just bothers me. Steinbrenner basically came in and said we are going to win at any cost, making the playoffs wasn't good enough, making the Series isn't good enough, winning the ring is what it is all about. Even though its all about George, I'd love to have a Reds owner that would be all about himself if it meant a winning team year after year after year...

[AmarilloRed]

It has taken 30 years for the Reds organization to reach this point. Marge Schott and the way she destroyed our scouting organizations while she was owner ("All they do is watch baseball games") set our team back a long time. I believe we now have an owner and a GM who are committed to winning and will do their best to make it happen. Our organization did not reach this point overnight, but the management is working to make things better.

[ChatterRed]

I love an organization with a rich heritage, i.e. the Reds. But when current/previous ownership has ruined that heritage it just bothers me. Steinbrenner basically came in and said we are going to win at any cost, making the playoffs wasn't good enough, making the Series isn't good enough, winning the ring is what it is all about. Even though its all about George, I'd love to have a Reds owner that would be all about himself if it meant a winning team year after year after year...


Dude,

The Yankees are spending a ton of money and still making a profit. Don't fool yourself into thinking they are putting all their money into the organization and not making anything. George S. is smarter than that. They got the whole state of New York to support them. And they are New York's team, not the Mets. The Mets are secondary.

The Reds are light years away financially from the Yankees. No comparison.

You sound like you're saying you like an organization who buys a pennant or championship.

[will5979]

You sound like you're saying you like an organization who buys a pennant or championship.

Excatamundo! I want the Reds back in the fall classic at ANY cost! 12 years, 12 years without a postseason is TOO long. People are bashing Marge Schott...why? They did win the World Series while she was owner...I'm not the biggest Schott fan in the world but I give her credit for helping to assemble that club, especially the addition of Pinella and Myers.

I can't say too much for her for firing Davey Johnson, we haven't had a manager since!

[mound_patrol]

Excatamundo! I want the Reds back in the fall classic at ANY cost! 12 years, 12 years without a postseason is TOO long. People are bashing Marge Schott...why? They did win the World Series while she was owner...I'm not the biggest Schott fan in the world but I give her credit for helping to assemble that club, especially the addition of Pinella and Myers.

I can't say too much for her for firing Davey Johnson, we haven't had a manager since!

People Bash Marge because she tore up the organization. We went from having a good scouting team to it being in shambles. We are just now starting to recover from her organizational dismanteling.

[mound_patrol]

ChatterRed, I am about 99% in your corner in this thread but one thing that has happened in last month nags me and I think maybe points a little bit toward perhaps the kind of attitude the other guy is referring to. That would be the Jay Bruce situation.

OK, They did not bring him up at the end of the AAA season because supposedly they were not going to have playing time for him. As it turns out, with 2 and half weeks he probably would have been a starter. I don't agree but still I am OK because hindsight is always 20/20.

However when the situation continues to deteriorate to where with 2 weeks left in the season Buck Coats and Jason Ellison are regulars, might that not be the time to sunmmons forth Bruce?

Then a week later when it is even more desparate they activate a guy who can only pinch run and another guy who was off playing golf instead of Jay Bruce?!?

The possible implications on the managerial situation aside, this last week has gone a long way toward washing away the good feelings about the team heading into next year. I'm guessing if Bruce had been up and playing the last week, between his glove and bat, at least 3 of the 6 (as I write) consecutive losses might have been W's instead.

I don't think winning attitude is something that can be turned off and on at will. In the last 3 weeks it just looks to me like the front office has shut it down and said basically the outcome doesn't matter. And for me that is not OK (especially when they talked of putting their best team on the field versus contenders).

I think the reason we didn't see Bruce up was because of management issues. Bringing him up would do two things. It would start his arbitration clock. And it would mean he would have to be added to the 40 man roster for a meaningless 8 games. Now by waiting we have one less person to deal with before the rule V draft.

[jnwohio]

I think the reason we didn't see Bruce up was because of management issues. Bringing him up would do two things. It would start his arbitration clock. And it would mean he would have to be added to the 40 man roster for a meaningless 8 games. Now by waiting we have one less person to deal with before the rule V draft.

I think you are probably right, particularly in regard to the spot on the 40 man. They went thru lots of guys this year and have several out on the 60 day DL that need to be brought back. Plus I am sure they probably have guys aging out that they will need to add to keep protected.

I understand it but I still don't like it.

[will5979]

We went from having a good scouting team to it being in shambles. We are just now starting to recover from her organizational dismanteling.

I appreciate what you are saying, but it just sounds to me like that people are scapegoating Marge for this mess...Free Agents are always available and the Reds just never want to sign them.

[texasdave]

Will the Reds contend in 2008? Is it as easy as adding a SP and an arm or two for the bullpen? Is Cincinnati actually that close? Exactly what separates playoff teams from the also-rans? While watching the Indians pound the Yankees last night I went on to Baseball-Reference.com in search of some answers. I wanted to see how the 2007 Reds' team stacked up against the typical playoff team. I picked three simple statistics - one each for offense, pitching and defense. The three stats are OPS+, ERA+ and DER. Teams that made the playoffs from 2000 on were looked at - 64 teams in all. Here is what the numbers revealed.



TMOPS+ FREQ. TMERA+ FREQ. TMDER FREQ.
>120 4 >120 6 >.720 1
116-119 6 116-119 9 .711-.720 5
111-115 9 111-115 13 .701-.710 17
106-110 12 106-110 13 .691-.700 18
101-105 21 101-105 13 .681-.690 20
96-100 9 96-100 8 <.680 3
91-95 2 91-95 2
<90 1 <90 0

STAT REDS-07 WT TW BT TWOBT&#37;
OPS+ 98+ 55 2 7 14.1%
ERA+ 96+ 59 3 2 7.8%
DER 0.676 63 0 1 1.6%


The top line of the chart are the 64 playoff teams organized by OPS+, ERA+ and DER. It shows how many times the teams reached certain levels.

The bottom line of the chart is how the 2007 Reds fared in comparison. WT-worse than. TW-tied with. BT-Better than. TWOBT%-tied with or better than percentage.

Offense - (98+) This came as a surprise to me. I thought the Reds had one of the better offenses in the 2007, but an OPS+ of 98 suggests that wasn't necessarily the case. It seems GAPB created a sort of mirage with regards to the Reds offense. The Reds finished 7th in the league in total Runs Scored. However, the average NL team scored 386 runs on the road. The Reds scored 377 - below the average. It seems as though the Reds strength is not really a strength at all. The Reds offense will have to improve in 2008 just to operate at the league-average pace. Putting the Reds' offense into the context of all the teams that have made the playoffs since 2000 works out this way. Using OPS+ as the measuring stick, the Reds' offense performed worse than 55 of the 64 playoff teams looked at. They tied with 2 teams and outperformed 7 others. The percentage of teams the offense was equal to or better than OPS-wise worked out to 14.1% This is roughly 1 out of every 7 teams. Not so good.

Pitching - (96+) This was a little better than I would have guessed, but it still is a poor performance. Using ERA+ as a standard 59 out of 64 playoff teams outdid the 2007 Reds' pitching staff. Reds' hurlers out-pitched just 2 of the playoff teams, while tying 3 others. This works out to a 7.8% - or roughly one out of every 14 playoff entrants. Again not so good. For those looking for a silver pitching lining, FIPS would suggest that the Reds' staff in 2007 was not as bad as traditional numbers would suggest. Better, but still not up to league average.

Defense - (.676) This is the area of greatest concern. If we trust DER numbers at all, then the 2007 Reds' defense was horrible. Their .676 DER would have beat out only 1 of the 64 playoff teams, while tying none - a stomach-turning 1.6%. Everyone knows that defensive metrics are not as reliable as the metrics for offense or pitching, but I don't see how anyone could mistake this year's defense for a good one. And if the Reds' bring back the same offense, the same defense comes along for the ride.

These numbers would lead one to believe that for the Reds to reach the playoffs in 2008 is not going to be an easy task. This team, IMO, is not as close to contending as many have stated. If this team is brought back basically intact, a lot of things will have to fall into place for them. And that is not likely to happen.

[Screwball]

I appreciate what you are saying, but it just sounds to me like that people are scapegoating Marge for this mess...Free Agents are always available and the Reds just never want to sign them.

Let's be clear here. Assessing blame where it rightfully belongs is NOT scapegoating. To dismantle a farm system for a small market team like the Reds is organizational suicide. To think the Reds could simply go out and get Free Agents when competing with the likes of the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, New York Mets, Chicago Cubs/White Sox, et. al. is very narrow-sighted, IMO. Those teams have budgets that dwarf those of the Reds. And what if the Reds do go out and get that one big name free agent and he flops (Milton)? Well, then the Reds are handcuffed for years.

The Reds are just now beginning to see light at the end of the tunnel, and the reason is because of our prospects. We have 4 excellent players we can add at a minimal cost, something that had been unheard of around here for years. If we were still under Marge's "Why pay scouts? All they do is get paid to watch ballgames" method, we'd still be spinning our wheels wondering if we're ever going to get out of this mess.




BTW, texasdave, excellent post.

[ChatterRed]

Let's be clear here. Assessing blame where it rightfully belongs is NOT scapegoating. To dismantle a farm system for a small market team like the Reds is organizational suicide. To think the Reds could simply go out and get Free Agents when competing with the likes of the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, New York Mets, Chicago Cubs/White Sox, et. al. is very narrow-sighted, IMO. Those teams have budgets that dwarf those of the Reds. And what if the Reds do go out and get that one big name free agent and he flops (Milton)? Well, then the Reds are handcuffed for years.

The Reds are just now beginning to see light at the end of the tunnel, and the reason is because of our prospects. We have 4 excellent players we can add at a minimal cost, something that had been unheard of around here for years. If we were still under Marge's "Why pay scouts? All they do is get paid to watch ballgames" method, we'd still be spinning our wheels wondering if we're ever going to get out of this mess.




BTW, texasdave, excellent post.


There are players that were drafted under the previous regime (Dunn, Votto, Bruce), but WK has managed to add other talented young players through trades & rule 5 (Hamilton, Phillips, Keppinger, Burton)............soon this lineup could be made up of major league minimum + arbitration only eligible players for the most part (1B Votto, 2B Phillips, 3B Encarnacion, OF Hamilton, OF Bruce). Gonzalez and Dunn would be our only real negotiated contracts since Phillips is only arbitration eligible. I guess Ross would be in that category. But still you see the point. And if they trade with Seattle for their young catcher Clemente, that would be another youthful player in the lineup that comes at a cheap price. Wayne has a plan, but coming from the ashes, it is taking time, but I really think the second half of this past season you could really see it taking shape. Now it's time to strengthen the pitching staff.

[BLEEDS]

I picked three simple statistics - one each for offense, pitching and defense. The three stats are OPS+, ERA+ and DER. Teams that made the playoffs from 2000 on were looked at - 64 teams in all.

You think those "three simple statistics" correlate to winning games percentage and making the playoffs? You must be the same guy who thinks the amount of rainfall in Paducah, Wisconsin has an effect on the Stock Market just because they align perfectly for the last 25 years...

One of the ONLY reasons that the Reds "are close" to the playoffs, is because we probably only play 2 or 3 of the 64 teams you researched to any great extent. WE PLAY IN THE NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL where 89 wins lets you rest your starters the last week of the season...

You're telling me we don't have the same OPS+ as the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Anaheim Angels, etc?!? Guys who bat Jason Giambi, Big Poppy, Garret Anderson instead of a Pitcher? You're kidding me!? I think that is a SILLY argument for trying to correlate playoff teams.


We were a #2/#3 SP and a solid/proven/consisten RP or two away from winning the NL Central THIS YEAR. So it only makes sense we are about the same away next year.

Can we spend <$10M on a #3 SP in FA this year? No.
Can Homer Bailey be that #3 SP next year? Maybe.
Can we get a solid Bullpen from Weathers, Burton, Bray, Couter, Gosling, MacBeth versus Rheal Cormier, Gas-Can Coffey, Stanton, Easy(tohitwhilerehabbing)Eddie G, et al this year? Maybe.

Can we improve our offense by replacing Hatteberg with Votto? YES.
Can our OF be solidified by taking Dunn's option, a healthy Hamilton, healthy Junior with Jay Bruce on the horizon? YES.
Can we improve our offense on off-days with a Keppinger/Hopper utility/4thIF/OF versus Ryan Freel, Juan Castro, etc? YES.

Are we still a solid #4/#5 SP from REALLY pushing for a playoff spot in 2008? YES!!
IMO, We need Bailey AND another SP to cover the #3/#4 spots in order to make a push. Will we get one in the off-season? Maybe. The FA pool sucks - unless you take a flier on a Freddy Garcia - so more than likey we have to trade for a viable #3/#4. Who do we let go in order to get that?!?

Votto/EE solidified themselves late in the season, so I don't think they are fodder anymore. Giving up a Votto for a #4 SP, and keeping Hatteberg in your lineup - is a break-even at best in terms of bottom line WinsVLosses. We need to keep our young core, and maybe give up some prospects for a SP in trade if we want to compete for the Playoffs.

I don't envy our FO this off-season.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[texasdave]

You think those "three simple statistics" correlate to winning games percentage and making the playoffs?

Yes I do think that those "three simple statistics' correlate to winning games percentage and making the playoffs. OPS+ and ERA+ definitely do. DER is still up in the air, IMO. It is not a perfect correlation, but it gives a person a pretty good idea. 52 out of 64 playoff teams had an OPS+ of over 100 (81.3%). 54 out of 64 playoff teams had an ERA+ of over 100 (84.4%).

One of the ONLY reasons that the Reds "are close" to the playoffs, is because we probably only play 2 or 3 of the 64 teams you researched to any great extent. WE PLAY IN THE NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL where 89 wins lets you rest your starters the last week of the season...

It is true that for the past two years the NL Central has been a weaker division. I don't think that will automatically be the case in 2008. I believe both the Cubs and the Brewers will be better teams next year.

You're telling me we don't have the same OPS+ as the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Anaheim Angels, etc?!? Guys who bat Jason Giambi, Big Poppy, Garret Anderson instead of a Pitcher? You're kidding me!? I think that is a SILLY argument for trying to correlate playoff teams.

If I read the glossary correctly in baseball-reference.com, then teams are compared only to teams in their own leagues. NL teams aren't compared to AL teams. This would make your argument about comparing teams with the designated hitters to teams which bat the pitcher pointless.



We were a #2/#3 SP and a solid/proven/consisten RP or two away from winning the NL Central THIS YEAR. So it only makes sense we are about the same away next year.

It only makes sense if you feel that none of the other teams in the division will improve. As stated before, I feel that both Chicago and Milwaukee will be better teams. JMO. The Reds also finished behind St. Louis and Houston. They have four teams to leap. All four teams will be making efforts to improve themselves. If the Reds are shooting for 85 wins because that is what it took the past two seasons, then I don't feel that will be enough.


Can we spend <$10M on a #3 SP in FA this year? No.
Can Homer Bailey be that #3 SP next year? Maybe.
Can we get a solid Bullpen from Weathers, Burton, Bray, Couter, Gosling, MacBeth versus Rheal Cormier, Gas-Can Coffey, Stanton, Easy(tohitwhilerehabbing)Eddie G, et al this year? Maybe.

Can we improve our offense by replacing Hatteberg with Votto? YES.
Can our OF be solidified by taking Dunn's option, a healthy Hamilton, healthy Junior with Jay Bruce on the horizon? YES.
Can we improve our offense on off-days with a Keppinger/Hopper utility/4thIF/OF versus Ryan Freel, Juan Castro, etc? YES.

Are we still a solid #4/#5 SP from REALLY pushing for a playoff spot in 2008? YES!!
IMO, We need Bailey AND another SP to cover the #3/#4 spots in order to make a push. Will we get one in the off-season? Maybe. The FA pool sucks - unless you take a flier on a Freddy Garcia - so more than likey we have to trade for a viable #3/#4. Who do we let go in order to get that?!?

Votto/EE solidified themselves late in the season, so I don't think they are fodder anymore. Giving up a Votto for a #4 SP, and keeping Hatteberg in your lineup - is a break-even at best in terms of bottom line WinsVLosses. We need to keep our young core, and maybe give up some prospects for a SP in trade if we want to compete for the Playoffs.

My point exactly. A lot of things will have to go right for the Reds next year. A number of unproven players will have to prove they are for real. A number of players who had very good years in 2007 will likely have to repeat those numbers. My personal opinion is that the odds aren't good odds everything to fall into place. If you think the puzzle fits together easily - fine.


I don't envy our FO this off-season.

Neither do I.

[INRedsFan]

I think we need to go after Brian Bullington in the Pirates organization as a starting pitcher. He was a September roster addition for them and has a lot of potential as a starter or out of the bullpen.....and can come cheap!

[will5979]

In my opinion this attitude is part of the Reds problem. I don't get this attitude lets go young and just get into the playoffs. Why not go after some established MLB stars? Why shouldn't we try to sign A-Rod? Think of what his power could do in Cincy. We need a solid 3B which is something we really haven't had since the days of Sabo and Boone. Don't get me wrong there are several guys on this team coming up that need to be part of the 08 Reds, especially Hamilton, Votto, Keppinger, and Bailey. I don't know too much about the Bruce guy. Guys like Hindenburg, Enconcepcion, and A-Gon really need to be shipped out.

What about Glavine? Think of how his leadership could bolster the rotation. We really haven't had a significant dominant ace since the days of Jose Rijo in his prime. Granted Harang could be that next ace. Open the checkbook even if you have to go into the Red (no pun intended), if you win your success will generate revenue. What happened to the attitude this organization had beginning in 1970 that every year the Reds were going for a World Series? It seems to me like it ended in 1995.

If you are going to try and make a run go all out, I mean balls to the wall and have one goal, a new World Series Championship Banner to hang in the ballpark.

I would just like to see a lineup with a few superstars in it again in Cincy...something like this

Freel
Hamilton
A-Rod
Phillips
Votto
Dunn-definitely pick up his option
A proven catcher (trade the players I mentioned or sign a FA)
Keppinger

Rotation

Glavine
Harang
Arroyo
Bailey
trade Griffey for a good arm here

[hippie07]

In my opinion this attitude is part of the Reds problem. I don't get this attitude lets go young and just get into the playoffs. Why not go after some established MLB stars? Why shouldn't we try to sign A-Rod? Think of what his power could do in Cincy. We need a solid 3B which is something we really haven't had since the days of Sabo and Boone. Don't get me wrong there are several guys on this team coming up that need to be part of the 08 Reds, especially Hamilton, Votto, Keppinger, and Bailey. I don't know too much about the Bruce guy. Guys like Hindenburg, Enconcepcion, and A-Gon really need to be shipped out.

What about Glavine? Think of how his leadership could bolster the rotation. We really haven't had a significant dominant ace since the days of Jose Rijo in his prime. Granted Harang could be that next ace. Open the checkbook even if you have to go into the Red (no pun intended), if you win your success will generate revenue. What happened to the attitude this organization had beginning in 1970 that every year the Reds were going for a World Series? It seems to me like it ended in 1995.

If you are going to try and make a run go all out, I mean balls to the wall and have one goal, a new World Series Championship Banner to hang in the ballpark.

I would just like to see a lineup with a few superstars in it again in Cincy...something like this

Freel
Hamilton
A-Rod
Phillips
Votto
Dunn-definitely pick up his option
A proven catcher (trade the players I mentioned or sign a FA)
Keppinger

Rotation

Glavine
Harang
Arroyo
Bailey
trade Griffey for a good arm here

I don't know how practical it is - but I love it!!

[GoReds33]

In my opinion this attitude is part of the Reds problem. I don't get this attitude lets go young and just get into the playoffs. Why not go after some established MLB stars? Why shouldn't we try to sign A-Rod? Think of what his power could do in Cincy. We need a solid 3B which is something we really haven't had since the days of Sabo and Boone. Don't get me wrong there are several guys on this team coming up that need to be part of the 08 Reds, especially Hamilton, Votto, Keppinger, and Bailey. I don't know too much about the Bruce guy. Guys like Hindenburg, Enconcepcion, and A-Gon really need to be shipped out.

What about Glavine? Think of how his leadership could bolster the rotation. We really haven't had a significant dominant ace since the days of Jose Rijo in his prime. Granted Harang could be that next ace. Open the checkbook even if you have to go into the Red (no pun intended), if you win your success will generate revenue. What happened to the attitude this organization had beginning in 1970 that every year the Reds were going for a World Series? It seems to me like it ended in 1995.

If you are going to try and make a run go all out, I mean balls to the wall and have one goal, a new World Series Championship Banner to hang in the ballpark.

I would just like to see a lineup with a few superstars in it again in Cincy...something like this

Freel
Hamilton
A-Rod
Phillips
Votto
Dunn-definitely pick up his option
A proven catcher (trade the players I mentioned or sign a FA)
Keppinger

Rotation

Glavine
Harang
Arroyo
Bailey
trade Griffey for a good arm hereLet's toss in Mariano Rivera for good measure.

No chance we get A Rod. Probably 99.999 percent chance we don't get Glavine. I think we may just get Carlos Silva, and a catcher like Barrett or something like that. No way they spend the big bucks this offseason.

[BLEEDS]

I don't know how practical it is - but I love it!!


Yes, batting Dunn 6th would a BRILLIANT move...

Keppinger, the best average on the team, batting 8th...

Freel, who can barely get an OBP above .300, let along play every day, leading off...

Oh, and we're paying A-Rod $35M a year... RIGHT.....


PEACE

-BLEEDS

[gedred69]

Yes, batting Dunn 6th would a BRILLIANT move...

Keppinger, the best average on the team, batting 8th...

Freel, who can barely get an OBP above .300, let along play every day, leading off...

Oh, and we're paying A-Rod $35M a year... RIGHT.....


PEACE

-BLEEDS

Thank God for your bringing it back to earth here, BLEEDS. This thread was starting to sound like a young boys' ridiculously, "ain't never gonna' happen" pubescent fantasy.

[will5979]

Thank God for your bringing it back to earth here, BLEEDS. This thread was starting to sound like a young boys' ridiculously, "ain't never gonna' happen" pubescent fantasy.

Alright then guys, go ahead and say lets trade Dunn for this unheard of cheap pitcher or lets trade Hatteburg for a AAA prospect.

Try to think nig every once in a while, lets get the winning and cocky attitude back in Cincy, not the competing Pittsburgh Pirates attitude.

[AmarilloRed]

Alright then guys, go ahead and say lets trade Dunn for this unheard of cheap pitcher or lets trade Hatteburg for a AAA prospect.

Try to think big every once in a while, lets get the winning and cocky attitude back in Cincy, not the competing Pittsburgh Pirates attitude.

We can't trade Hatteberg unless we pick up his option; We can't trade Dunn until next June when he can pick 10 teams he would like to be traded to.

[Stephenk29]

I know my thoughts on the 2008 season, I'm cheering for the Yankees. The Reds organization obviously does not care about its fans so why should I waste my time cheering for the one thing I thought Cincy would never become...a modern day Pirates organization.

At least the Yankees give back to their fans...post season every SINGLE year!

what a terrible outlook. Are you going to be a die hard Rockies fan after this year too? I don't think you can compare the Pirates to the Reds. We at least have talent coming up and we haven't given them away like the Pirates (Aramis among others). I understand your frustration, but I'm not about to jump ship for the easy way out. It's easy for the Yankees to win when they can spend money whenever wherever. Helps to have the largest market in the league.

ridiculous

I'm sorry to say but its hard for me to take the optimistic outlook on 2008. I think Dunn will have another great year because like the first poster said, contract year. Phillips has developed into a superstar. I'm not completely sold on Hamilton. I think we should trade him while his value is so high. Ed had a great second half but don't forget that miserable first, can he put it together for a whole season? Votto has a lot of talent but he will still be a rookie, that's like a coin flip. Pitching will naturally be a huge make or break. I just don't see it coming together for the staff this year. I think we will have a better record and will be more competitive, but the Cubs will be much more improved as well as the Brewers. The depth at the top of the division will just kill any real playoff chances.

[will5979]

what a terrible outlook. Are you going to be a die hard Rockies fan after this year too?

ok, let me try to explain myself...

What i said was that in 08 I'll follow the Yankees...keep in mind I said this at the beginning of the playoffs cause I was frustrated that the Reds once again were not in the playoffs. Regardless of anything the Reds will always be my #1 team, even over my beloved WVU Mountaineer Football team...with recent frustration I had the outlook that the organization did not care about winning and taking steps forward for the Reds so why should I keep setting myself up for heartbreak/disappointment? Not to mention the Reds really made me sound stupid with my 07 preseason predictions (I said they would win the Wild Card, the only one I got right was the Cubs winning the division.)

HOWEVER!!! With the recent hiring of Dusty Baker I'm already optimistic about next season, to me it was a step in the right direction and hopefully more big names will be bought in the offseason. Being a baseball fan I like to watch October baseball and was tired of not seeing the Reds there. So the Yankees have had an appeal to me ever since 1996. That organization has done many "favors" for me...

1. They took a chance on Darryl Strawberry who was one of my fav. ball players when I was a kid...it was nice to see him play again in those days!

2. They prevented the Braves from becoming back to back World Champions...had the Braves won the 96 series they would have been the first NL team since the Big Red Machine to repeat as World Champs and quite frankly I didn't want to hear the comparision between the two because there is none. And quite frankly I don't want another NL team to repeat as World Champs unless it be the Reds.

3. Not only did they prevent the Braves from becoming World Champions in 99, they simply embarassed them in that Series, and quite frankly I didn't want the Braves to be only team in the NL that won 2 World titles in the 90s cause when everyone called the Braves the team of the 90s, I always/still shot back with the Reds won just as many World Series' in the 90s.

4. On numerous occasions they have prevented the Boston Red Sox from assertaining the World Series.

So therefore as much as I want to say that I don't like any other team but the Reds the Yankees hold a special place in baseball heart for those reasons.

Also the Marlins have a place too because they prevented the Braves from going to the 97 Series, then they prevented the Indians from winning the 97 series. Then in 03 they took the Cubs out of the playoffs. So therefore I like those two teams for the heartache they inflicted on the 4 teams that I hate (Braves, Red Sox, Cubs, Indians...in that order)

And yes I'll be cheering my butt of for Colorado next week cause I hate both the Red Sox and Indians, but Boston more so right now I cheering the Tribe on, albeit temporarily!