Play GM - 2008 and beyond

[The Snow Chief]

I don't think 2008 will be a year that the Reds make a serious run but I think 2009 and 2010 can be if some of the young farm system talent (thank god we finally have some) develops as projected. These are the things I do this offseason and beyond. Please feel free to add what you would do but do so under the realistic assumption that the payroll will be $80M tops.

This offseason:

1) Sign Dunn to a 4 year deal if he is reasonable ($60M or less). I like theory of letting him walk and using the money to sign a SP, but there will be no one out there in FA who can be counted on to net you much more than you would get from a Matt Belise. Go with the proven commodity. If he is not reasonable, pick up his option for this year and trade if not in contention or let him walk after 2008.

2) Sign one legitimate, young and live bullpen arm. Either a set up man or closer. Still must have good years left. No more washed up guys. I think one experienced but live arm coupled with Bray, Burton, and Coutlangus (and Weathers if he still has it) would be a pretty decent pen for late innings. Out of Majewski, Salmon, MacBeth, Coffey, Gosling, etc. you should be able to find a couple guys to pitch decent middle relief and even develop into a late inning guy.

3) Dangle Phillips or Votto (and maybe a throw in) for a legitimate #2 starter and see if you get any bites. I hate to get rid of either of these guys. Phillips is an all around great player and Votto has tons of potential. However, both of these guys are at about the peak of their demand (Phillips is arb. eligible, but under control for 3 years - Votto will make peanuts for 3 years) in terms of trade value and both play positions where the Reds have some options in terms of replacements. I don't dangle Bruce because he projects as the best OF prospect in baseball and I don't think teams would give up enough value for that without seeing a little of him in MLB action. Hamilton is another option, but he will have to prove he can play a whole season before I think teams would give up what he is worth. Don't give either Phillips or Votto away but if a legitimate, younger #2 starter who would be under the Reds' control for 3-4 seasons is offered, you have to go after it IMO. This staff would be so much better sliding Arroyo to #3, having Bailey as a #4 and there will be plenty of AAAA guys to field a 5th starter.

2008 mid-season and offseason

1) Unload Griffey for whatever you can get for him before the trade deadline unless we are in contention and he is producing. In either event, do not pick up is 2009 option. Bruce will slide into this spot and perform well IMO and save tons of money which can be used to fill needs that are much greater than OF.

2) If you could not make a trade for a #2 starter this offseason, then use the 2008 season to see if you think Bailey or Cueto can be a legitimate #2 starter in 2009 and 2010. If so, great. You may just need to sign a back of the rotation guy. If not, you must make a run at a #2 in next year's free agency. The FA SP class for next year looks much stronger and the team must have one to compete for a championship IMO.

There are other obvious things such as look to move Freel and Stanton, possibly trade Gonzo, etc. While they should be done I think they almost go without saying and are not as important as that listed above.

[GoReds33]

I wouldn't even come close to trading Phillips. He was easily the team's best position player last year, and he will only get better next year. I hope they are able to sign him long term.

[AdamDunn]

I wouldn't even come close to trading Phillips. He was easily the team's best position player last year, and he will only get better next year. I hope they are able to sign him long term.

Agreed. I am also COMPLETELY AGAINST trading any of the Big Four (Bailey, Cueto, Bruce, and Votto). WHY ON EARTH IS EVERYONE TRYING TO TRADE OUR FUTURE FOR THE PRESENT!!! It doesn't make sense. We finally get some legitimate prospects with whom we can build around for a cheap price (ala Rockies and Indians) and now everyone on this board wants to trade them! I don't understand it at all!

[The Snow Chief]

Agreed. I am also COMPLETELY AGAINST trading any of the Big Four (Bailey, Cueto, Bruce, and Votto). WHY ON EARTH IS EVERYONE TRYING TO TRADE OUR FUTURE FOR THE PRESENT!!! It doesn't make sense. We finally get some legitimate prospects with whom we can build around for a cheap price (ala Rockies and Indians) and now everyone on this board wants to trade them! I don't understand it at all!

I would not trade Bailey, Cueto, or Bruce unless the return is unreal. I would consider Phillips or Votto for a younger #2 pitcher. Phillips because he is beginning to get expensive and we have people who can play 2B (although not as good as him). Votto because I think he is about at the peak of his trade value and first basemen are easier to find. I like both of those guys a lot but I think a #2 starter is so valuable you almost have to take the deal for either or them.

[Bip Roberts]

Id probably pick up Dunns option and see what happens during the season before I sign him long term.

[RedsFanWC]

I agree with most of your points.

I think the Reds should sign Dunn long term but only if they believe his trend of an increased BA and a decrease in strikeouts is going to continue. Dunn is a great offensive player when he hits .265, but he can be a rally killer when he hits .234. Keeping Jacoby is a good sign for Dunn as well. If the Reds arent sure if Dunn will repeat 2007 or revert to 2006 they may exercise the option, see how his first couple months go and then try to sign him to an extension.

The bullpen is one place where the Reds can spend some money to get better. I think the young lefthanders (Coutlangus, Bray, Gosling) will get better, and Burton and Weathers proved to be a good tandem at the backend, however they could use one more quality righthander with a proven track record, whether it is a closer (Cordero, Rivera, Gagne top that market) or a setup guy (Linebrink, Wood, Hawkins, Vizcaino). If its a closer suddenly Weathers is back to the 8th and Burton to the 7th making the bullpen that much better, if its a setup guy Weathers stays in the ninth, either way the bullpen gets better.

The Reds need one if not two quality starters. There are three ways to acquire new starting pitching.

One, they can overspend for a middle of the road starter like Carlos Silva. They tried this with Eric Milton and that did not work out very well, hopefully they dont make that mistake again.

Two, they can sign a starter that is either aging or coming off injury (such as Clement, Colon, Garcia, Jennings in the injury category or Glavine, Schilling in the aging category). I think the reds should stay away from most of these guys but taking a flyer on a guy like Clement may be worth it. This is how the Cardinals ended up with Carpenter, getting him while he was injured from Toronto.

The third way is to trade young, cheap offensive players for pitching. While most Reds fan would love to see them trade Griffey, Freel or Alex Gonzalez for pitching, in reality the only way to bring back legit starting pitching is to give up players like Hamilton, Phillips, Encarnacion, Votto or Bruce. I would keep Phillips, Votto and Bruce. The two guys I would shop would be Hamilton and Encarnacionl. Keppinger and/or Cantu can replace EE's offensive production at third without losing too much and with him being young and cheap he could bring back a quality starting pitcher (especially as part of a package). While Hamilton is a tremendous talent, the Reds are deep in the outfield and if they sign Dunn long term and develop Bruce, they can afford to let Hamilton go.

That is what I would try to do this offseason if I was Krivsky.

[Degenerate39]

1. Sign Dunn to a 4 year deal and a mutal option for the 5th and give him a no trade clause.

2. I'd go after a good bullpen arm. Maybe Kerry Wood. I would want someone who could throw at least 95.

3. Try to trade Griffey to Seattle or maybe Atlanta. I'd go after some B prospects. I'd be looking to get a Catcher or maybe some pitching prospects from the team.

4. If I couldn't trade Griffey I'd keep him in Rightfield and keep Bruce in Triple A until I could trade Griffey. If I did trade Griffey then Jay Bruce would be starting in Centerfield with Hamilton in Right.

5. I'd look to sign a young free agent pitcher like Clement or Wolf. Give them mainly an incentive deal.

6. I would look to trade Mike Stanton. He's a lefty who knows what he's doing but he's just not a fit for a homer friendly park. I'd look out west to trade him.

7. Get the best pro scouts I could possibly find and start looking to build for the future. I figure it'll be a few years before the Reds will compete so I want my farm system stacked.

8. I want to start looking to the future so why not see what the minor league studs can do with some playing time in the Majors.

I'd move Burton into the closer role for a while just to see what he can do with Bray. Have them be a poor man's Nasty Boys.

9. Look to trade Freel. Chances are your not going to get a whole lot but at least get a decent prospect.

This is my line up for 2008.

Catcher- Ross and Javy
1st Base- Votto and Cantu
2nd Base- Phillips and Keppinger
Shortstop- Gonzo and Keppinger
3rd Base- Edwin and Keppinger
Left Field- Dunn and Hopper
Center Field- Hamilton and Hopper
Right Field- Griffey (If he's not traded. Bruce replaces him if he is traded) and Hopper

Bench:
Cantu
Keppinger
Hopper
Lopez
Javy or Ross

Starting Rotation:
Harang
Arroyo
Bailey
Cueto
Wolf? If not then Belisle

Bullpen-
Burton (Closer)
Bray (Closer or setup man)
Weathers- Set up man or 7th inning depending on the opposing team
Coutlangus
McBeth
Pelland (maybe)
Roenicke (maybe)

[Bip Roberts]

1) Dunns option picked up. Not sure about a long term deal

2) trade for Willis depending on the cost. Honestly I dont see him being traded until the deadline next year just because his value is so low right now.

3) If a trade for Willis cant be done look for someone in free agency and hopefully talk Curt Schilling into coming here with a 1 year deal for who cares how much.

4) Find out what Gonzalez will get you. Keep him most likely and try to see if Keppinger didnt have a fluke of a year.

5) Never start Norris Hopper over Josh Hamilton unless he needs a day off

6) Move weathers to a much more beneficial role for the club, which means not closing. I could careless if we don't have a closer especially if we don't have the pitching to get us to the closer to begin with. That means sign a free agent because I still like the idea of having Burton throwing set up. Weathers would be so much more useful in the 6th or 7th with Burton still being the sup and with a free agent in the 9th being ideal on most nights.

7) Explore some free agent catchers. I dont really see it being that big of an issue though if we pick up Valentins option.

8) If all else fails save money this year and go into next year with a little more spendable cash.

[AdamDunn]

1) Pick up Dunn's option
2) Trade Griffey to Atlanta or wherever he wants to go for some single-A prospects who probably won't make it or some AAA relief pitcher who might be able to contribute next year.
3) Sign or trade for a right-hand bat in the outfield. Hunter or Cameron (I say Cameron because he's older, will cost less, had an off year, and we can probably sign him to a two year deal. I think he can have a .360 OBP and play good defense in the outfield).
4) See what we can get for Gonzo (Tampa Bay?)
5) Sign Schilling to a one or two year deal. He's getting old, but he's still a valuable teacher to the young guys. I think he can teach Bailey a thing or two about command of his pitches.
6) Sign a legitimate bullpen arm
7) Look to sign either Wood or Clement cheap
8) Unless an overwhelming trade is offered, the Big Four (Cueto, Bailey, Bruce, and Votto) should not be traded.

[redleg32]

I think the Reds can both contend and plan for the future in'08.

1) I think we are still owed compensation from the D-Rays for
Brendan Harris? Trade Elizardo Ramirez, Mike Gosling, Tyler Pelland, and Anderson Machado to D-Rays for Elijah Dukes(whom at one point last year they just wanted him gone) and Dioner Navarro and maybe ask for Joel Guzman as well.

2)Trade Alex Gonzalez, Ryan Freel, David Ross, and Mike Stanton
to White Sox for Bobby Jenks, Lance Broadway, Charlie Haeger, and Heath Phillips.

3) Trade Elijah Dukes, Todd Coffey, Matt Belisle, and Phil Dumatrait to Marlins for Dontrelle Willis and Taylor Tankersley.

4) Sign Omar Vizquel to as minimal of a deal as we could get.
Sign Tom Glavine

5) Name Barry Larkin as Bench coach and Ray Miller as pitching
coach.

Rotation
1 Harang
2 Willis
3 Arroyo
4 Glavine
5 Bailey
Cueto
Shearn

Bullpen
Jenks
Weathers
Tankersley
Burton
Bray
Coutlangus
Haeger
Mcbeth (if we dont send him in the D-Ray deal)
Guevera

Lineup
CF Hamilton
SS Keppinger/Vizquel
RF Griffey
2B Phillips
LF Dunn(oh yeah I forgot: Sign Dunn to a 4 or 5 year deal)
3B Encarnacion
1B Votto
C Navarro/Valentin/Hannigan

Bench
Valentin
Hopper
Cantu
Vizquel
Power bat

[GoReds33]

1. Sign Adam Dunn to a long term contract A.S.A.P.
2. Trade Ken Griffey Jr.
3. Bring up Jay Bruce.
4. Bring up Johnny Cueto.
5. Sign Joe Nathan, at whatever cost.
6. Sign a new pitching coach.(Leo Mazzone)
7. HAVE PATIENCE!!!

[Stephenk29]

I think the Reds can both contend and plan for the future in'08.

1) I think we are still owed compensation from the D-Rays for
Brendan Harris? Trade Elizardo Ramirez, Mike Gosling, Tyler Pelland, and Anderson Machado to D-Rays for Elijah Dukes(whom at one point last year they just wanted him gone) and Dioner Navarro and maybe ask for Joel Guzman as well.

2)Trade Alex Gonzalez, Ryan Freel, David Ross, and Mike Stanton
to White Sox for Bobby Jenks, Lance Broadway, Charlie Haeger, and Heath Phillips.

3) Trade Elijah Dukes, Todd Coffey, Matt Belisle, and Phil Dumatrait to Marlins for Dontrelle Willis and Taylor Tankersley.

4) Sign Omar Vizquel to as minimal of a deal as we could get.
Sign Tom Glavine

5) Name Barry Larkin as Bench coach and Ray Miller as pitching
coach.

Rotation
1 Harang
2 Willis
3 Arroyo
4 Glavine
5 Bailey
Cueto
Shearn

Bullpen
Jenks
Weathers
Tankersley
Burton
Bray
Coutlangus
Haeger
Mcbeth (if we dont send him in the D-Ray deal)
Guevera

Lineup
CF Hamilton
SS Keppinger/Vizquel
RF Griffey
2B Phillips
LF Dunn(oh yeah I forgot: Sign Dunn to a 4 or 5 year deal)
3B Encarnacion
1B Votto
C Navarro/Valentin/Hannigan

Bench
Valentin
Hopper
Cantu
Vizquel
Power bat

wow

[kbrake]

redleg32- you do realize other teams have to agree to trades right?

[muethibp]

redleg32- you do realize other teams have to agree to trades right?

"I came up for a way for us to get Griffey and Bonds in the same outfield and it won't even cost us that much."

[Bip Roberts]

"I came up for a way for us to get Griffey and Bonds in the same outfield and it won't even cost us that much."
Who do you think you are? The Assistant to the Traveling Secretary or something?

[Degenerate39]

Who do you think you are? The Assistant to the Traveling Secretary or something?

It's a quote from Seinfeld

[Bip Roberts]

It's a quote from Seinfeld

umm I'm pretty sure I knew that based on my reply...

[ChatterRed]

I didn't read the whole thread, but I wouldn't start trading young talent unless it's Hamilton. Hamilton is the only young talent I dangle because we have plenty of outfielders.

All of the young talent have high ceilings right now, but you dangle the ones that you have replacements for.

Personally, I think they will be better next year. We have young pitching that is still developing. Votto needs to get a year under his belt. I see EE building on last season. Phillips the same.

Let's see what happens with Griffey. I think that is the key right now and if we can sign a #4 starter in free agency and a couple of reliable closers/relief men in free agency. I really think that is key.

If we had relief pitching last season, even with our lack of #3 thru #5 starters, we finish closer to .500. There were alot of decent starting pitching efforts that got wasted by the pen last year. If they can sign a couple of reliable relief pitchers to go with Weathers/Burton and a couple of others we have............we might be able to hold some leads next year and improve this record in a weak division.

I think this team has come a long way, but it hasn't shown up in the win-loss column yet, but is on the verge. How can people not see that?

I'd trade Griffey and Hamilton for a decent return. Can you get decent return? That remains to be seen. If you can get a #3 starter and some prospects for Hamilton, I do the deal and bring up Bruce. I know Hamilton has 5-tool top prospect ability, but my gut feeling is that he will be chronically injured. He has one of those delicate athletic bodies that always has something wrong with it. Plus he has the temptation of the drug issue always hanging over his head.

If we can't get pitching for Griffey, I'd shoot for a young semi-proven catcher such as Seattle's Clemente.

Then I try and sign Gagne, Kerry Wood, and a few others. Gagne blew up in the playoffs but pitched well before that. I think he was tired coming off rehab.

Just my thoughts.

[Will M]

I haven't seen anywhere that Castellini is going to increase payroll to $100M plus. Therefore we have to keep the young cheap talent. Hamilton, Bruce, Votto, Phillips, EE, etc need to stay.

Griffey needs to go. I've stated my case before.
My 2008 OF is Dunn-Bruce-Hamilton.

Signing Dunn to a LTC is ok by me.
The Reds have the money in their budget to do this and there aren't a lot of free agents out there that the Reds would use this money on anyway.

Don't sell the future. 2008 may be a transition year.
It is a big year to see if Belisle can be a major league starter, is Bailey the real deal, Cueto? LOTS of young relievers at AAA or in the bigs. By 2009 we will have a better idea of who is legit and who isn't.

[I(heart)Freel]

THE THINGS WE THINK AND DO NOT SAY
(The Future of Our Reds Club)


By my calculations, the beloved Redlegs are about ten steps away from greatness.

So here it is, the offseason: curling up on the couch with a can of Pringles, watching the Rockies march to the promised land and thinking about what must be done for the Reds to get there. Hiring a proven manager would've led this list off last week. But since BCast and the fellas down at GABP took care of that agenda item so quickly, I will move on to the other pressing matters.

I think 2008 is a key step. It must be what 2007 should have been. A step forward. The Reds have to finish above .500, they have to contend and in doing so, the young guys have to mature so that they can handle a true run from 2009-2011.

Remember: this is not a memo. It's a mission statement.

Here goes:

1) Hire Walt Jocketty as president and have him oversee all baseball operations. There is nothing wrong with having another great baseball mind in this organization. Wayne Krivsky can still go find the diamonds in the rough, and Jocketty can help negotiate with the right free agent pitchers, etc. I see it very complementary. Plus, God forbid we need to make a change midstream with Wayne, we have a natural interim GM in house.

2) Wrap up Dunn to a 3 year deal with a club option 4th year. But go easy on the no-trade provisions. Perhaps a list of 10 teams he won't go to, etc. We need a back out in case we go really young really fast.

3) Wrap up Phillips to a 4 year deal. Throw in gold glove, silver slugger and even more 30/30 incentives.

4) Pick up Valentin and Hatteberg's options. Decline Guardado's, but tell him you're interested in exploring a contract more incentive based.

5) Give Bob Castellini some antacids and then ask him if the Reds can eat the contracts of Castro and Stanton. Sure, shop them around first. But know you won't get too many returned calls. So be prepared to designate them. With the emergence of Keppinger and still having super sub Freel on the bench, Castro certainly doesnt have a place on the team next year. It was also pretty apparent that Stanton was too wildly inconsistent to be counted on in meaningful games. Stanton is due $3 mill and Casto is due $975k. That's a lot to eat, I know. But the roster flexibility will more than make up for it. It also helps 2009. Stanton has a provision in his contract that his $2.75 mill option automatically kicks in if he hits 140 appearances in 2007-08. He's halfway there (69). Cut bait now.

6) Shop AGon and get the best pitching you can for him. I'm not delusional. It won't be a huge return, unless we send some cash with him (unlikely). But young and good would be great. I'm assuming it will be for bullpen help. That's fine. We should be trying to stockpile young talent there right now, and then take the best 2-3 youngsters up north after spring training and pair them with the vets we have. Along those same lines: treat Coffey exactly as you would the other young bullpen arms. He has to fight for a spot to head up north, even though he has that gift $925k contract this year. Be willing to pay him that to throw in Louisville. Might help him pitch with more purpose. And make a mental note not to give a raise to someone who isn't even due it. It will help the ballclub compete more financially.

7) Take Dusty up on his boast that he can attract quality talent here and go get a closer. It will be costly, but necessary. Rivera. FCordero. Gagne. Or a great setup man - like a Linebrink - and promote him. Fact is, 2007 was one terrible season almost entirely because of our inability to hold a lead (or keep a game close) in late innings. So fix that. Get an established closer. Shift Weathers and Burton back, and you just might have yourself about 15 more wins right there. Conservatively. It might be cool to find a lefty closer; could then tagteam saves depending on whose coming to bat in the 8th and 9th.

8) Call Cincinnati Bell and sign up for an international calling plan. Then tap into the one area of player development this organization has ignored: Japan. There are a handlful of starters who won't require a posting fee (a la Dice-K) who sound as good as the best free agent starters in the MLB. The difference: the upside. You know exactly what you're going to get with Lohse or Silva, for instance. Someone like Koji Uehara could give you that, i.e. inconsident outings but pitching a decent workload. OR, he could be a stud in waiting, ready to befuddle batters. If it's about the same amount, which is would seem to be, I would take the chance on Uehara for $8 mill a year before I would give that to Lohse again. The other thing: we could probably use this extra starter for a few years. Gives the young guys some time to break in and eventually doesnt have us debating whether Belisle or Shearn can be our stopgap #5 starter. One caveat: jump on this idea ASAP. Can't get into a bidding war with big spenders. Have to wine 'em and dine 'em immediately. Bring the Delta interntaional schedule, and show them that getting to Cincy from Asia isn't terrible.

9) Start Bruce and Cueto in AAA. Tell them they are both important to the future of this organization and they will certainly be promoted in due time. But their place at the start of 2008, barring injury, is Louisville.

10) Get more former stars back in the fold. Start stealing them back from the Nationals. Invite them to spring training. The BCast era has made this a priority, but we need to continue down that path more fully. I'd like to see Oester back around. Larkin. Anyone who had any connection to the championship teams. The club can use them as Cincinnati ambassadors and as mentors to our young team, in spring and beyond.


With these moves, my 2008 roster shakes out like this:


starters
Harang 6.75
Arroyo 3.95
THIRD SP TBD
Bailey 0.39
Belisle/Livingston/??? 0.75

bullpen
Weathers 3.55
Guardado 2
Coffey 0.925
Bray (L) 0.39
Burton 0.39
Countlagus (L) 0.39
CLOSER TBD

catchers
Ross 2.525
Valentin 1.3

infielders
Votto 0.39
Phillips 4
Encarnacion 0.39
Keppinger 0.39
Hatteberg 2
Cantu 0.6

outfielders
Griffey 6.5
Dunn 13
Hamilton 0.39
Hopper 0.39
Freel 3


other
DFA Castro 0.975
DFA Stanton 3

TOTAL 58.335



So before you start thinking that my moves aren't realistic financially, see the chart above. We're at $58 mill, even with the cuts. I plugged in some guesses for the arbitration guys and for the new contracts. Might need some tinkering, but close.

Still leaves us around $60 mill. Payroll in 2007 was around $70 mill, and BCast said Monday that he intends the 2008 payroll to be greater. How great? That's debateable. But I think we could have room for the stud closer and #3 starter we need under this plan. Maybe another $15-20 mill?

Do-able. Utterly do-able.

And the necessary first step to years of contention and meaningful Octobers.

[ChatterRed]

I haven't seen anywhere that Castellini is going to increase payroll to $100M plus. Therefore we have to keep the young cheap talent. Hamilton, Bruce, Votto, Phillips, EE, etc need to stay.

Griffey needs to go. I've stated my case before.
My 2008 OF is Dunn-Bruce-Hamilton.

Signing Dunn to a LTC is ok by me.
The Reds have the money in their budget to do this and there aren't a lot of free agents out there that the Reds would use this money on anyway.

Don't sell the future. 2008 may be a transition year.
It is a big year to see if Belisle can be a major league starter, is Bailey the real deal, Cueto? LOTS of young relievers at AAA or in the bigs. By 2009 we will have a better idea of who is legit and who isn't.

The lack of free agent pitching warrants that we'll have to trade somebody OF VALUE that will bring a decent return in terms of pitching. We have more depth in the OF than anywhere and Hamilton is the best trade bait. Bruce can replace him. You have to give up something to get something. None of the other players will bring as high a return as Hamilton.......including Griffey. Hamilton is cheap and a 5 -tool player. From my standpoint, he is also chronically injured.

Trade him and bolster the starting pitching rotation and hope that Bailey and Cueto come along in the next 2 seasons and fill those spots with hopefully Bailey and a FA #4 or #5 acquisition for the last spot in the rotation. Or hope Belisle or some other farm system pitcher can get it done.

Then use the extra money to sign a couple more relievers.

Trade Griffey.

We have to trade some value to get some value.

[Redsnake]

Her's my GM Plan:

1) Sign Dunn muti year deal. - Move him to 1B. I know it's not a popular move among fans. But this free's up Votto for an impact trade and allows Bruce to make the team out of S.T. Outfield gets better, Still retains Dunn's power and gives the Reds a great trade chip.

2) Keep Griffey for one more year or until HR 600 - This gives fans more reasons to come out to the park and spend money. After that let him go.

3) Sign Kerry Wood - Dusty.... you think you can get players to come here...get him. Then convince him he is a closer. Wood reminds me of Isringhausen at that same stage in his career.

4)Sign Matt Clement - This one might be easier for the Reds to get the Wood. Clement pitched well under Dusty. Clement has been throwing very well and could get a incentive laden deal. When healthy hitters only batted .230 off him and he struck out an average of 190 batters per year with a 3.75ERA average.

5) Pick up Hatty's option and then trade him - At $1.85 mil that has to be the cheapest dela ever. And nearly all teams would love that addtion. It could bring in a solid prospect or better group deals.

6) Trade,Trade, Trade - With Hopper, Keppinger, Cantu and Lopez, Freel is not needed. With Wood as the closer Stanton, Coffey can go. Dunn at first Votto and Hatty can be dealt. With Clement, Belisle can move to the bullpen or trade bait.

I would like to say something like Votto, Cuerto and Freel for J.Santana or Haren. But I don't think either team will do it without Cuerto and Bruce in any deal.

So here's something different.
Freel and Hatty to Det. for Fernando Rodney
Rodney is one the better Detroit relief men. Detroit could use Hatty at 1b and Freel can be there super sub.

Belisle, Votto and Coffey to CWS for Javier Vazquez
CWS wants to trade Garland. I think he would be horribe at GABP. So I say go after Vazquez. He could be that #2 pitcher and a stop gap until Cuerto is ready.

2008 Roster
C- Ross/Valentin Reds team comeback player. David Ross
1B- Dunn/Cantu
2B- Phillips/Keppinger
3B- E.E./Keppinger
SS- A.Gonzo/Lopez
LF- Bruce/Hopper
CF- Hamilton/Hopper
RF- Griffey/Hopper

#1- Harang
#2- Vazquez
#3- Clement
#4- Arroyo
#5- Bailey

Pen
Majweski - Last chance
Bray
Courlangus
Wood
Burton
Weathers
Rodney

IMO :p:

[Will M]

The lack of free agent pitching warrants that we'll have to trade somebody OF VALUE that will bring a decent return in terms of pitching. We have more depth in the OF than anywhere and Hamilton is the best trade bait. Bruce can replace him. You have to give up something to get something. None of the other players will bring as high a return as Hamilton.......including Griffey. Hamilton is cheap and a 5 -tool player. From my standpoint, he is also chronically injured.

Trade him and bolster the starting pitching rotation and hope that Bailey and Cueto come along in the next 2 seasons and fill those spots with hopefully Bailey and a FA #4 or #5 acquisition for the last spot in the rotation. Or hope Belisle or some other farm system pitcher can get it done.

Then use the extra money to sign a couple more relievers.

Trade Griffey.

We have to trade some value to get some value.

Are you advocating trading both Griffey and Hamiltion?
Who else do you have in the outfield for 2008 besides Bruce and Dunn?
I will say that if you trade Griffey and Hamilton it would give the Reds the chance to get a real centerfielder. Both Hamilton and Bruce are OK in CF but are best in RF.

I would rather trade Griffey and use the money saved from this and Milton being gone to target Schilling ( a fantasy I know ),
a Japanese pitcher or two, Kerry Wood for the pen or David Riske for the pen.

[Will M]

THE THINGS WE THINK AND DO NOT SAY
(The Future of Our Reds Club)


By my calculations, the beloved Redlegs are about ten steps away from greatness.

So here it is, the offseason: curling up on the couch with a can of Pringles, watching the Rockies march to the promised land and thinking about what must be done for the Reds to get there. Hiring a proven manager would've led this list off last week. But since BCast and the fellas down at GABP took care of that agenda item so quickly, I will move on to the other pressing matters.

I think 2008 is a key step. It must be what 2007 should have been. A step forward. The Reds have to finish above .500, they have to contend and in doing so, the young guys have to mature so that they can handle a true run from 2009-2011.

Remember: this is not a memo. It's a mission statement.

Here goes:

1) Hire Walt Jocketty as president and have him oversee all baseball operations. There is nothing wrong with having another great baseball mind in this organization. Wayne Krivsky can still go find the diamonds in the rough, and Jocketty can help negotiate with the right free agent pitchers, etc. I see it very complementary. Plus, God forbid we need to make a change midstream with Wayne, we have a natural interim GM in house.

2) Wrap up Dunn to a 3 year deal with a club option 4th year. But go easy on the no-trade provisions. Perhaps a list of 10 teams he won't go to, etc. We need a back out in case we go really young really fast.

3) Wrap up Phillips to a 4 year deal. Throw in gold glove, silver slugger and even more 30/30 incentives.

4) Pick up Valentin and Hatteberg's options. Decline Guardado's, but tell him you're interested in exploring a contract more incentive based.

5) Give Bob Castellini some antacids and then ask him if the Reds can eat the contracts of Castro and Stanton. Sure, shop them around first. But know you won't get too many returned calls. So be prepared to designate them. With the emergence of Keppinger and still having super sub Freel on the bench, Castro certainly doesnt have a place on the team next year. It was also pretty apparent that Stanton was too wildly inconsistent to be counted on in meaningful games. Stanton is due $3 mill and Casto is due $975k. That's a lot to eat, I know. But the roster flexibility will more than make up for it. It also helps 2009. Stanton has a provision in his contract that his $2.75 mill option automatically kicks in if he hits 140 appearances in 2007-08. He's halfway there (69). Cut bait now.

6) Shop AGon and get the best pitching you can for him. I'm not delusional. It won't be a huge return, unless we send some cash with him (unlikely). But young and good would be great. I'm assuming it will be for bullpen help. That's fine. We should be trying to stockpile young talent there right now, and then take the best 2-3 youngsters up north after spring training and pair them with the vets we have. Along those same lines: treat Coffey exactly as you would the other young bullpen arms. He has to fight for a spot to head up north, even though he has that gift $925k contract this year. Be willing to pay him that to throw in Louisville. Might help him pitch with more purpose. And make a mental note not to give a raise to someone who isn't even due it. It will help the ballclub compete more financially.

7) Take Dusty up on his boast that he can attract quality talent here and go get a closer. It will be costly, but necessary. Rivera. FCordero. Gagne. Or a great setup man - like a Linebrink - and promote him. Fact is, 2007 was one terrible season almost entirely because of our inability to hold a lead (or keep a game close) in late innings. So fix that. Get an established closer. Shift Weathers and Burton back, and you just might have yourself about 15 more wins right there. Conservatively. It might be cool to find a lefty closer; could then tagteam saves depending on whose coming to bat in the 8th and 9th.

8) Call Cincinnati Bell and sign up for an international calling plan. Then tap into the one area of player development this organization has ignored: Japan. There are a handlful of starters who won't require a posting fee (a la Dice-K) who sound as good as the best free agent starters in the MLB. The difference: the upside. You know exactly what you're going to get with Lohse or Silva, for instance. Someone like Koji Uehara could give you that, i.e. inconsident outings but pitching a decent workload. OR, he could be a stud in waiting, ready to befuddle batters. If it's about the same amount, which is would seem to be, I would take the chance on Uehara for $8 mill a year before I would give that to Lohse again. The other thing: we could probably use this extra starter for a few years. Gives the young guys some time to break in and eventually doesnt have us debating whether Belisle or Shearn can be our stopgap #5 starter. One caveat: jump on this idea ASAP. Can't get into a bidding war with big spenders. Have to wine 'em and dine 'em immediately. Bring the Delta interntaional schedule, and show them that getting to Cincy from Asia isn't terrible.

9) Start Bruce and Cueto in AAA. Tell them they are both important to the future of this organization and they will certainly be promoted in due time. But their place at the start of 2008, barring injury, is Louisville.

10) Get more former stars back in the fold. Start stealing them back from the Nationals. Invite them to spring training. The BCast era has made this a priority, but we need to continue down that path more fully. I'd like to see Oester back around. Larkin. Anyone who had any connection to the championship teams. The club can use them as Cincinnati ambassadors and as mentors to our young team, in spring and beyond.


With these moves, my 2008 roster shakes out like this:


starters
Harang 6.75
Arroyo 3.95
THIRD SP TBD
Bailey 0.39
Belisle/Livingston/??? 0.75

bullpen
Weathers 3.55
Guardado 2
Coffey 0.925
Bray (L) 0.39
Burton 0.39
Countlagus (L) 0.39
CLOSER TBD

catchers
Ross 2.525
Valentin 1.3

infielders
Votto 0.39
Phillips 4
Encarnacion 0.39
Keppinger 0.39
Hatteberg 2
Cantu 0.6

outfielders
Griffey 6.5
Dunn 13
Hamilton 0.39
Hopper 0.39
Freel 3


other
DFA Castro 0.975
DFA Stanton 3

TOTAL 58.335



So before you start thinking that my moves aren't realistic financially, see the chart above. We're at $58 mill, even with the cuts. I plugged in some guesses for the arbitration guys and for the new contracts. Might need some tinkering, but close.

Still leaves us around $60 mill. Payroll in 2007 was around $70 mill, and BCast said Monday that he intends the 2008 payroll to be greater. How great? That's debateable. But I think we could have room for the stud closer and #3 starter we need under this plan. Maybe another $15-20 mill?

Do-able. Utterly do-able.

And the necessary first step to years of contention and meaningful Octobers.


Generally agree with a few exceptions:

IMO Keppinger's defense isn't good enought o be an everyday SS and I would like to see Pedro Lopez play everyday in AAA and hit well there for a full season before I trade Gonzalez.

Valentin's defense isn't good and hit bat is in serious decline ( look at his OPS for 2005-2006-2007 ). I would let him go and look elsewhere for a catcher to pair with Ross.

Most importantly Bruce plays everyday in Cincinnati and Jr plays somewhere else.

[AmarilloRed]

I would be very cautious about trading any of our young talent with high upside(Votto, Hamilton , Philips, Edwin, Bailey or Cueto) unless we would be guaranteed a top of the rotation starter. I would be willing to trade Gonzalez, Freel, Griffey, Keppinger , or Cantu if doing so would improve either our rotation or our bullpen. The SP free agents that are available are pretty weak, but I would see if I could find a diamond in the rough if I was Krivsky. I might be willing to give a FA starter a 1-2 year deal if I thought it would improve the team. One other thing I might do is look for a legitimate starting catcher in fre agency.

[ChatterRed]

Trading Griffey will not get you pitching. If the idea is purely to relieve the Reds of his salary, then that is fine. But you won't get much in return for him.

If we could sign Schilling, I think that would help, but I don't see Castellini going that direction. If he does, more power to him.

If we have to trade for starting pitching, Hamilton is the most attractive and because he comes cheap, not to mention his talent.

[The Snow Chief]

I don't think Hamilton is at the peak of his return value now. I think GMs would want to see him at least play everyday injury free through the AS break and put up good numbers before they would give up a ton of value for him. That's why I suggested Votto.

I would hate to give Votto up but he has worked his way through the minors playing everyday and showed what he can do in September. Gms would be willing to give up value for him IMO. If you are looking for a legitimate, young #2 starter, you probably have to at least give up Votto - as much as I hate to do it.

I would not give up Bruce unless the return is unreal. He has the potential to be a consistent top 5 NL outfielder with great power and a decent glove. Votto, on the other hand, plays a position where he can be more easily replaced IMO.

[nyjwagner]

Couple of quick things, more as comments on what others have said, then as pure ideas...might help reign in some of these crazier ideas:

Schilling isn't coming to Cincy, no matter the contract-- just not enough cameras and microphones. Glavine will retire if he doesn't play for the Braves or the Mets... he doesn't have anything to prove to be willing to go to a team he isn't already connected to. Neither are great fits for the Cincy ballpark, not is Clement. Clement might as well be Eric Milton.

The option year for Adam Dunn isn't bad, because if he actually had to play for a contract it might do him some good. The downside of no extension is that no team will give up much to get him at the deadline, since they are only guaranteed him for 2-3 months.

You want Bonds to eat up a large portion of the teams salary for 90 games tops? Not great fiscal management, but maybe enough people will buy pops at the stand between booing him to make it worthwhile.

[5DOLLAR-BLEACHERBUM]

1) Dunns option picked up. Not sure about a long term deal

2) trade for Willis depending on the cost. Honestly I dont see him being traded until the deadline next year just because his value is so low right now.

3) If a trade for Willis cant be done look for someone in free agency and hopefully talk Curt Schilling into coming here with a 1 year deal for who cares how much.

4) Find out what Gonzalez will get you. Keep him most likely and try to see if Keppinger didnt have a fluke of a year.

5) Never start Norris Hopper over Josh Hamilton unless he needs a day off

6) Move weathers to a much more beneficial role for the club, which means not closing. I could careless if we don't have a closer especially if we don't have the pitching to get us to the closer to begin with. That means sign a free agent because I still like the idea of having Burton throwing set up. Weathers would be so much more useful in the 6th or 7th with Burton still being the sup and with a free agent in the 9th being ideal on most nights.

7) Explore some free agent catchers. I dont really see it being that big of an issue though if we pick up Valentins option.

8) If all else fails save money this year and go into next year with a little more spendable cash.
I agree with most of what you have said, and I know you listed it as an all else fails option but with the hiring of Dusty Baker I really doubt that the Reds can afford to stand pat and save money from a PR standpoint. It would seem foolish to me to sign a "big name" manager in the offseason and then stand pat to save money for the following year. I think that the Reds will use this hiring as a chance to show the fans that they mean business, this can and will only be done by making a splash in the offseason. This teams weaknesses are more than obvious and I would be shocked if these holes were left unfilled. The bullpen IMO will be shaken up, a righthanded bat will be signed, and I think even if it's not a top tear guy we will have a new starting pitcher or two going into next season. This is a very important step for the Reds, they need to fill some seats and get some buzz going around town. If they make some moves now the money for next year will be there in the form of ticket sales and other possible ventures. If we settle for saving money now to better the team next year who's to say that it will work out and we could be saying the same thing five years from now.