Eric Bedard and Scott Kazmir on the Trade Market

[mound_patrol]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2007/11/orioles-will-li.html

Orioles Will Listen On Bedard
New Orioles president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail confirms what we've been reading for the past few months: the club will at least listen to offers for ace Erik Bedard. He adds that the O's have had preliminary, general extension talks with Bedard. I imagine that if Bedard is looking for the $18-20MM per year he could get on the open market, the O's will choose to trade him. Two years of Bedard is at least as good as one of Johan Santana, and Bedard doesn't have any no-trade stipulations. He made just $3.4MM this year.

What are your thoughts on a reasonable package the O's might get for Bedard? The typical Matt Kemp/Clayton Kershaw speculation seems to fit here.

MacPhail also admits that he'd prefer to have flexibility rather than all the long-term contracts the team has committed to. He expects an active trade market, and you can bet the Orioles will be in the middle. Miguel Tejada is likely to be dealt, especially if his name is absent from the Mitchell Report.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2007/11/rays-kazmir-may.html

Rays' Kazmir May Be Available
The week in hot stove kicks off with a bang: Joel Sherman of the New York Post has a source saying the Devil Rays might listen to offers for ace lefty Scott Kazmir. Kazmir turns 24 in January and carries a 3.64 career ERA despite pitching in the AL East. He's been particularly tough on the Red Sox (2.66 ERA in 101 innings). You have to think that if the Yankees are entertaining making an offer for Johan Santana, they'd consider Kazmir as well if the Rays would deal within the division.

Sherman notes that Kazmir is under contract for three years as opposed to just one for Santana, which could equate the two pitchers in the marketplace. Erik Bedard, under control for two years, has to be in that group of elite, possibly available southpaws as well. Sherman believes the Rays would seek "multiple high-end pitchers" for Kazmir, who is entering arbitration for the first time this winter. The Yankees could offer a package starting with Phil Hughes, but the Mets don't seem to have the goods. It would take a pitcher of that nature - Hughes, Yovani Gallardo, Clay Buchholz. Otherwise, why would the Rays consider it?

Sherman also echoes the surprising notion that Tim Lincecum could be had for the right bat. He speculates that the Giants could pursue Carl Crawford or Delmon Young as the return. Hey, our Delmon speculation is catching on!



Bedard and Kazmir are the type of players the reds should target in a trade this offseason. What is everyone willing to give up to get these players?

[*BaseClogger*]

I'd give up Bailey for somebody who has already proven something in the big leagues...

[mound_patrol]

If I was Krivsky I'd offer Bailey and Maloney for Kazmir. For Bedard I'd offer Hamilton and Edwin.

[AmarilloRed]

Last I heard the Orioles were seeking multiple position players for Bedard-Votto, Hamilton, and Edwin? As for Tampa Bay, they are looking to get back multiple high-end pitching prospects back. We would definitely need to give up either Bailey or Cueto and add Maloney, or if Tampa Bay played hardball in a trade we might need to give up both Bailey and Cueto

[hippie07]

This is great... I for one am having so much fun speculating what the Reds might do or try to do this offseason. Have you noticed, though, that we actually have prospects that we can toss around in trade offers. I mean some of them would hurt a whole lot to lose, but at least it seems we have a ton of high-quality prospects to get teams attention with, but in pitching and in offense.

Pitching: Bailey, Cueto, Maloney, Wood, et al.
Offense: Hamilton (my favorite player), Votto, EdE, Bruce

I think - depending on how brazen of a package we put together - we could pretty much have anyone we want in a trade.... when's the last off-season that we've been able to say that!!?

[muethibp]

Do we have a "Maloney" other than the low ceiling, soft tossing guy we got for Lohse?

[hippie07]

Last I heard the Orioles were seeking multiple position players for Bedard-Votto, Hamilton, and Edwin? As for Tampa Bay, they are looking to get back multiple high-end pitching prospects back. We would definitely need to give up either Bailey or Cueto and add Maloney, or if Tampa Bay played hardball in a trade we might need to give up both Bailey and Cueto

I would do both those trades, but I think I would only do pick 2 of [Hamilton, Votto, EdE] and then maybe some lesser prospects. And for Kazmir - how about Cueto, Maloney, & Wood.

That would leave us w/ a Starting Rotation of:
Harang,
Kazmir,
Bedard,
Arroyo,
Bailey ....... wow my mouth is watering at that rotation.

AND Kazmir & Bedard aren't TOO expensive next year, which would give us some money to throw around in the FA market maybe to buy a closer... wow, that excites me!

[Screwball]

Do we have a "Maloney" other than the low ceiling, soft tossing guy we got for Lohse?

That's one way to describe him. You can also describe Adam Dunn as a defensive liability who strikes out too much. Both would be true, but also completely ignore the good qualities they have (power, on base skills for Dunn; excellent control and is a lefty for Maloney) while providing a skewed picture of the player.

[SMcGavin]

Let's say the D-Rays call and say Kazmir is available for Bailey and Cueto - do you do it? For what it's worth I think Tampa Bay would do that trade, if they want a couple of high-ceiling arms they probably won't get a better offer than that. So, would you do it?

[GoReds33]

Let's say the D-Rays call and say Kazmir is available for Bailey and Cueto - do you do it? For what it's worth I think Tampa Bay would do that trade, if they want a couple of high-ceiling arms they probably won't get a better offer than that. So, would you do it?No. Bailey in my mind would be all I would give from the top prospect bin. I wouldn't deal Cueto unless they were willing to part with Edwin Jackson of Ellijah Dukes. Even then I wouldn't give them both Bailey and Cueto, just Cueto. In my mind Cueto is a better prospect, until Bailey can gain his control of his offspeed stuff. I love Dukes' potential. He is a monster. I think that he fits the type of player that Krivsky could be looking for. Jackson is a good young arm that I would love to have.

[Degenerate39]

I'd love to have Bedard

[hippie07]

Let's say the D-Rays call and say Kazmir is available for Bailey and Cueto - do you do it? For what it's worth I think Tampa Bay would do that trade, if they want a couple of high-ceiling arms they probably won't get a better offer than that. So, would you do it?

Yes..... and here's why. I don't really know that much about Kazmir, but if he truly is already an ace ... w/ a reasonable contract over the next couple years.. then what is his downside? Not many aces fall completely off the table (unless due to injury), however, many high profile prospects do. We'd essentially be trading two possible gems, for 1 actual one. I know it's a gamble, but it's a gamble that a smart team makes, IMO.

[Screwball]

Let's say the D-Rays call and say Kazmir is available for Bailey and Cueto - do you do it? For what it's worth I think Tampa Bay would do that trade, if they want a couple of high-ceiling arms they probably won't get a better offer than that. So, would you do it?

Tough question there. That's giving up a lot of talent, but Kazmir is also one of the top pitchers in all of baseball (IMO), and he's a lefty to boot. But still, I just couldn't give up that much young talent when we'd still be far away from actually contending for a World Series.

We'd have a great trio of Harang, Kazmir, and Arroyo, but who could we rely on for 4-5? Belisle? Shearn? Maybe Maloney? Not to mention the bullpen is still in shambles. Weathers was solid last year, but can we really expect him to repeat in '08? Who besides Burton can nail down the coffin (so to speak) in the middle-to-late innings?

Bottom line is, if this team was one stud starter away from greatness, then I'd hesitantly pull the trigger (a la Hanley Ramirez for Josh Beckett). But as it stands, let the young guns come up and produce, hopefully filling two holes for years to come.

[Stephenk29]

Actually getting either one would be phenomenal. I'm more partial to Bedard. If we went after both it would take some serious talent, which I'm not totally against doing really. Not often do you get two teams willing to trade their aces. You have to overspend almost to get proven aces.

Getting a rotation of Harang, Bedard, Kazmir, Arroyo would be unlikely obviously, but I can always dream. I think you have to do almost whatever you can to get that. We would have the best rotation in the majors (we'd have 3 aces). Bruce and Cueto for Bedard? Bailey and EdE for Kazmir?

My only question is how many years would we have either guy under contract once we got them?

[kaldaniels]

I would do both those trades, but I think I would only do pick 2 of [Hamilton, Votto, EdE] and then maybe some lesser prospects. And for Kazmir - how about Cueto, Maloney, & Wood.

That would leave us w/ a Starting Rotation of:
Harang,
Kazmir,
Bedard,
Arroyo,
Bailey ....... wow my mouth is watering at that rotation.

AND Kazmir & Bedard aren't TOO expensive next year, which would give us some money to throw around in the FA market maybe to buy a closer... wow, that excites me!

A pipe dream perhaps...but the Reds would be in contention the next 5 years.

[hippie07]

Tough question there. That's giving up a lot of talent, but Kazmir is also one of the top pitchers in all of baseball (IMO), and he's a lefty to boot. But still, I just couldn't give up that much young talent when we'd still be far away from actually contending for a World Series.

We'd have a great trio of Harang, Kazmir, and Arroyo, but who could we rely on for 4-5? Belisle? Shearn? Maybe Maloney? Not to mention the bullpen is still in shambles. Weathers was solid last year, but can we really expect him to repeat in '08? Who besides Burton can nail down the coffin (so to speak) in the middle-to-late innings?

Bottom line is, if this team was one stud starter away from greatness, then I'd hesitantly pull the trigger (a la Hanley Ramirez for Josh Beckett). But as it stands, let the young guns come up and produce, hopefully filling two holes for years to come.

I guess I disagree. I think that as a general policy it's bad to trade young promising players for one year rent-a-player types... but for a guy like Kazmir that has (I think) three years left on his reasonable contract... I don't think that's nearly the same thing. What if we got Kazmir & Bedard (or a comparable duo of pitchers - for the players I mentioned earlier) ... granted we'd have too give up alot ... but then we could buy a closer (which I feel will make the remaining elements of our bullpen fall in line). Who's to say we couldn't contend w/ that... we'd definitely have the best starting rotation in the NL Central ... maybe in baseball ...and the cool thing is that we have the prospects to make it happen NOW!!! Next year, any number of things could happen.... Bailey could suck... Hamilton could come down to earth or continue his injury bad luck... anything could happen in the next year... why not trade them while they're hot and there are "supposedly" the missing pieces that our team needs on the trading block.

With our starting rotation and bullpen in line... we could start the season and see how our offense works out and if it needs help we could always try to obtain someone before the deadline..... and.... I dunno, I think a playoff run becomes extremely possible... and not in some fairytale ... crazy-optimistic land, but in reality.

[Screwball]

I guess I disagree. I think that as a general policy it's bad to trade young promising players for one year rent-a-player types... but for a guy like Kazmir that has (I think) three years left on his reasonable contract... I don't think that's nearly the same thing. What if we got Kazmir & Bedard (or a comparable duo of pitchers - for the players I mentioned earlier) ... granted we'd have too give up alot ... but then we could buy a closer (which I feel will make the remaining elements of our bullpen fall in line). Who's to say we couldn't contend w/ that... we'd definitely have the best starting rotation in the NL Central ... maybe in baseball ...and the cool thing is that we have the prospects to make it happen NOW!!! Next year, any number of things could happen.... Bailey could suck... Hamilton could come down to earth or continue his injury bad luck... anything could happen in the next year... why not trade them while they're hot and there are "supposedly" the missing pieces that our team needs on the trading block.

With our starting rotation and bullpen in line... we could start the season and see how our offense works out and if it needs help we could always try to obtain someone before the deadline..... and.... I dunno, I think a playoff run becomes extremely possible... and not in some fairytale ... crazy-optimistic land, but in reality.

All reasonable points, which makes the trade ideas so tempting. If there was some hope that the bullpen could be shored up just enough to not sabotage the efforts of the SPs, then go ahead and make it happen. But if there's 1 big knock on Krivsky, it's that he's been abysmal at creating an effective bullpen, despite numerous efforts. It'd be tough to swallow giving up all that young, cheap talent to still have no hardware to show for it.

Also, my guess is Castellini would have to approve a substantial increase in payroll. Though if he is to be believed, that shouldn't be a problem.

[mound_patrol]

All reasonable points, which makes the trade ideas so tempting. If there was some hope that the bullpen could be shored up just enough to not sabotage the efforts of the SPs, then go ahead and make it happen. But if there's 1 big knock on Krivsky, it's that he's been abysmal at creating an effective bullpen, despite numerous efforts. It'd be tough to swallow giving up all that young, cheap talent to still have no hardware to show for it.

Also, my guess is Castellini would have to approve a substantial increase in payroll. Though if he is to be believed, that shouldn't be a problem.

Actually adding Bedard and Kazmir to the payroll wouldnt hurt at all. Bedard made 3.4 million last year I think. He's up for Arb again but I don't think it could jump up too much. And Kazmir is in his first year of Arb so i'm guessing he'd be around 4 million. So most likely those two top end pitchers would cost us around 10-12 million combined for next year.

[Screwball]

Actually adding Bedard and Kazmir to the payroll wouldnt hurt at all. Bedard made 3.4 million last year I think. He's up for Arb again but I don't think it could jump up too much. And Kazmir is in his first year of Arb so i'm guessing he'd be around 4 million. So most likely those two top end pitchers would cost us around 10-12 million combined for next year.

True. However, I meant in later years, assuming of course we signed them to extensions. If I'm giving up the farm, I want the return to be here for several years. That would come at a pretty penny, especially after the first couple seasons.

[hippie07]

Actually adding Bedard and Kazmir to the payroll wouldnt hurt at all. Bedard made 3.4 million last year I think. He's up for Arb again but I don't think it could jump up too much. And Kazmir is in his first year of Arb so i'm guessing he'd be around 4 million. So most likely those two top end pitchers would cost us around 10-12 million combined for next year.

Okay- that's it!! I'm sold! I want Bedard & Kazmir even if we have to "sell the farm" to get them. I mean...whoever it takes from a pool of Hamilton, Votto, Bruce, EdE, Bailey, Cueto, Maloney, Wood... whomever!

Think of it, we would have potentially the same opening day starters as last year (with the possible exception of EdE) but with an excellent, EXCELLENT starting rotation. Of course we would still need a closer - Cordero? and Voila! Instant contenders.

I don't think we'd be ruining ourselves here at all because we would have 3 aces locked up for at least 2 or 3 years plus Arroyo. Which gives us time to grow some more pitching prospects. And basically the only things I give WK credit for is his ability to lock up solid pitching w/ LTC and his ability to find quality position players from nowhere (see Phillips & Hamilton). I think we would be fine.... not to mention... CONTENDERS!

Yeah! Now, if we can only get WK, Tampa Bay and Baltimore to agree... ;)

[AmarilloRed]

"He adds that the O's have had preliminary, general extension talks with Bedard. I imagine that if Bedard is looking for the $18-20MM per year he could get on the open market, the O's will choose to trade him".

I quoted this from mlbtraderumors.com. It is important to remember that for now both Bedard and Kazmir are cheap, they can both expect to be paid really well in the future.. So we would probably have a 3 year window in which we could expect the Reds to contend for the playoffs and try to make the World Series with these two pitchers. I am sure all of this will be on Wayne's mind before he tries to make a trade of this magnitude.

[ED44]

I like the idea of Bedard more than Kazmir, for the mere fact we, more than likely, keep our pitching prospects. I hate parting with Bailey AND Cueto...if we could swing a deal with TB that only included one of them, then I do it...yesterday.

[SMcGavin]

Tough question there. That's giving up a lot of talent, but Kazmir is also one of the top pitchers in all of baseball (IMO), and he's a lefty to boot. But still, I just couldn't give up that much young talent when we'd still be far away from actually contending for a World Series.

We'd have a great trio of Harang, Kazmir, and Arroyo, but who could we rely on for 4-5? Belisle? Shearn? Maybe Maloney? Not to mention the bullpen is still in shambles. Weathers was solid last year, but can we really expect him to repeat in '08? Who besides Burton can nail down the coffin (so to speak) in the middle-to-late innings?

Bottom line is, if this team was one stud starter away from greatness, then I'd hesitantly pull the trigger (a la Hanley Ramirez for Josh Beckett). But as it stands, let the young guns come up and produce, hopefully filling two holes for years to come.

My only problem with this is by the time Bailey and Cueto are up and producing like they are supposed to, it's gonna be 2009 or 2010 (at least). At that point the contracts of Harang and Arroyo will be ending. If you do Bailey and Cueto for Kazmir you've got Harang-Kazmir-Arroyo locked up for the next three seasons. That is one hell of a start to a playoff team, and it gives us three seasons to put the pieces around them. Our offensive prospects like Bruce and Votto are ready to produce during those three seasons. If we swing a trade like this suddenly I wouldn't mind spending $40M on a Silva or Lohse, even knowing he is only a #4. Go with Harang, Kazmir, Arroyo, Lohse, Belisle, and we had to trade none of our offense to get that rotation. It'd be one of the best in the NL. Sign a couple of bullpenners and this team is ready.

So I agree with hippie07 - I'd do Bailey and Cueto for Kazmir, provided Castellini was ready to spend a bit to make us a legit contender. From his comments, I think he is. Make that trade, tack on $15M to the payroll and the Reds would be an immediate contender.

[ChatterRed]

Don't see it happening, but if it did, we'd blow our weak division away.

[HalMorrisRules]

This was asked in an ESPN chat with BA's Jim Callis

Ben (Centerville, OH): Would a package of Josh Hamilton, Edwin Encarnacion, and Johnny Cueto be enough to trade for Eric Bedard?

Jim Callis: I would think so. I like Bedard, but I'd do that if I were the Orioles.

FYI, this was also asked:

Brian (NJ): Cueto,Henry Sosa, Cahill or Mulvey?

Jim Callis: Johnny Cueto.

[hippie07]

This was asked in an ESPN chat with BA's Jim Callis

Ben (Centerville, OH): Would a package of Josh Hamilton, Edwin Encarnacion, and Johnny Cueto be enough to trade for Eric Bedard?

Jim Callis: I would think so. I like Bedard, but I'd do that if I were the Orioles.

FYI, this was also asked:

Brian (NJ): Cueto,Henry Sosa, Cahill or Mulvey?

Jim Callis: Johnny Cueto.

That trade would hurt, but I think if we did it - it would have to be dependent on BCast putting his money where his mouth is and spending some $$$. I think a combination of this, signing of a CFer (Hunter?) and signing of a closer. Plus, possibly the signing of some incentive-laden contracts (Prior?/Clement?). This scenario would straighten us out, IMO.

Rotation: Harang, Bedard, Arroyo, Bailey, Belisle/or whoever wins out w/ the other signees.

Do you think this would be enough to make us competitive? I'd still rather have Bedard & Kazmir ... but I'll take one rather than none ;)

[ChatterRed]

This was asked in an ESPN chat with BA's Jim Callis

Ben (Centerville, OH): Would a package of Josh Hamilton, Edwin Encarnacion, and Johnny Cueto be enough to trade for Eric Bedard?

Jim Callis: I would think so. I like Bedard, but I'd do that if I were the Orioles.



So if we did that trade, we play Keppinger at 3B, and bring up Bruce for CF?

Could we get Kazmir for Bailey? Or would we need to trade more?

[VI_RedsFan]

If there is anyway in the world that we could get both of these guys, as unrealistic as it sounds, I'd be very happy. I'd imagine that it would take Hamilton, Votto, and Cueto to get it done for Erik Bedard, and I'd probably do that deal. For Kazmir, the Rays would probably bite on Bailey, Wood, and Maloney as a package, and I would strongly consider that as well. Yeah, these deals would pretty much drain our farm as far as pitching prospects go, but could you imagine these guys as our top four in the rotation?:

Bedard
Harang
Kazmir
Arroyo

Jeez, with those guys we wouldn't even need a 5th starter. If we want to get some pitching prospects to re-stock our farm for that area, would the Yankees consider an Encarnacion for Ian Kennedy and Alan Horne deal? Now, find me a strong defensive centerfielder (let's keep Bruce in AAA for a year and let him replace Junior after 2008) and a couple guys for the bullpen (Kerry Wood with Iwase as our closer sound pretty good to me), and we would be golden.

[Edd Roush]

Ah the smell of the Hot Stove...

It would be fantastic to see Bedard or Kazmir donning the Red next year.

I would hope that Castellini wouldn't drop 10 mil on a questionable and add nothing to help his already disliked 10 million dollar investment out.

Landing a top pitcher for a some of the farm and landing a couple solid bullpenners makes us a contender. I just hope we can hold on to Bruce and Votto. I have a completely irrational soft spot for our home grown monsters.

[SMcGavin]

Could we get Kazmir for Bailey? Or would we need to trade more?

I don't think just Bailey would be enough. Odds are Bailey is never going to be as good as Kazmir is right now (and that's not a knock against Homer). If they would do a Bailey-Kazmir swap, I would do it in a heartbeat. They'd probably want Bailey and Cueto which is an awful lot. If you could talk TB into Bailey + a lesser pitching prospect (e.g. Wood, Watson) I would do that as well.

[hippie07]

Ok.. I really want either Bedard or Kazmir (both would be nice, but...). Say we go after Bedard, the problem is I don't think either of these pitchers probably are REALLY on the tradeblock - the GM's are probably just sticking them out there to see their worth. Although on this thread we've made realistic suggestions of what we should trade to get Bedard (like Hamilton, Cueto, & Votto) and that trade in my estimation would be a totally fair one if Bedard were actually on the trading block, but what if we need to convince the GM .... offer him something that he'd be crazy to turn down....how far would you go? What about Bruce, Votto, & Cueto? I don't know what I'd do, but I just really want another ace on the staff (and a left-hander would be great) ... I don't really care if we have to overpay for him and possibly end up "losing" the trade, I just really think its important to make a real dent in the rotation this offseason.

[AmarilloRed]

I don't think just Bailey would be enough. Odds are Bailey is never going to be as good as Kazmir is right now (and that's not a knock against Homer). If they would do a Bailey-Kazmir swap, I would do it in a heartbeat. They'd probably want Bailey and Cueto which is an awful lot. If you could talk TB into Bailey + a lesser pitching prospect (e.g. Wood, Watson) I would do that as well.

I am not sure that is a fair comparison. Homer has spent half a season in the majors, and suffered a injury while he was in Cincinnati. Kasmir has spent a couple of years and is a finished product. You may be right and Bailey may never be the pitcher Kazmir is now, or he could be an ace pitcher for the Reds in a couple of years. As to your other point of trading Bailey for Kazmir, I have to agree it is better for the Reds to acquire a major-league ready starter now than wait a couple of years for Bailey who may or may not achieve his true potential.