Winter Meetings First Day In Review

[hippie07]

For one, evidently the Santana deal didn't get done. We've heard about WK "kicking the tires" on Dontrelle Willis, Tim Lincecum, and Brett Tomko --which I'm all for WK being aggressive and pursuing all SP options.

What we haven't heard is the Reds metioned w/ the Santana, Haren, Bedard, Blanton's of the World ... does that mean anything? I dunno. I hope that Wayne will at least consider inquiring about these guys.

From what we're hearing, Votto & Bruce are nearly untouchable, but Hamilton & EdE are being shopped -- I'd like to see the following things:
Hamilton, Maloney & Roenicke for Tim Lincecum
If this trade goes down it would make Bailey/Cueto less imperative, so I'd turn around and do the following:
EdE, Bailey/Cueto, Stubbs & Wood for Bedard or Haren.

Harang
Bedard/Haren
Arroyo
Lincecum
Belisle/Cueto

;)

[AmarilloRed]

The Giants say that Linceum and Cain are close to being untouchable.

[hippie07]

Brian Sabean is getting a bit annoyed with teams thinking Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain are available. They're pretty much not, but since the door is open a crack it may be inhibiting other deals. Sabean did admit that one team made an "interesting" offer for Lincecum. Any guesses?

Just saw this over on MLBTR ... oh well, I wouldn't go crazy for Lincecum, if I were going to extremely overpay.. I'd rather it be Haren ...

[AmarilloRed]

Krivsky: Starter a priority

Wayne Krivsky said the Reds are looking for a starting pitcher at the Winter Meetings.

"It's a priority," Krivsky said.

If you come to this blog regularly, you know that about as specific as Krivsky gets when talking about moves.

All 29 other teams have starting pitching somewhere on their Winter Meetings shopping list as well. But it sounded like Krivsky is fairly confident the Reds can make a trade.

"Trade talk is at much high pitch than last year," he said.

Other tidbits from the scribe session with Krivsky:

--Johnny Cueto has been invited to big league camp, although he's a long shot to make the club. To get him ready, he's been shut down at Winter Ball. "He's up to about 200 innings," Krivsky said, "get some rest and come into spring strong."

--The Reds are open to Eddie Guardado and Eric Milton returning, albeit at a drastically reduced price. "Those are two guys will keep in touch with," Krivsky said. The declined offering either arbitration.

--There are no untouchables. "Every organization has players who would be awfully hard to get," Krivsky said. "Someone would have to grossly overpay to acquire them. It’s unrealistic to think that’s going to happen." In other words, Jay Bruce, Homer Bailey or Cueto aren't going anywhere.

A lot there to digest. Cueto will be in spring training, Guardado and Milton have been contacted by Krivsky, and Bruce, Cueto, and Bailey are going nowhere unless someone overpays in a trade.

[ChatterRed]

Yanks added Phil Hughes and Twinkies still aren't impressed. (yawn)

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/rumors/post/Twins-seeking-to-rob-from-the-rich?urn=mlb,55851

They're asking for the world and I hope nobody bites at Santana and he walks after next season or their price comes down at the trading deadline next year. That would be funny.

[jmac]

Krivsky: Starter a priority

Wayne Krivsky said the Reds are looking for a starting pitcher at the Winter Meetings.

"It's a priority," Krivsky said.

If you come to this blog regularly, you know that about as specific as Krivsky gets when talking about moves.

All 29 other teams have starting pitching somewhere on their Winter Meetings shopping list as well. But it sounded like Krivsky is fairly confident the Reds can make a trade.

"Trade talk is at much high pitch than last year," he said.

Other tidbits from the scribe session with Krivsky:

--Johnny Cueto has been invited to big league camp, although he's a long shot to make the club. To get him ready, he's been shut down at Winter Ball. "He's up to about 200 innings," Krivsky said, "get some rest and come into spring strong."

--The Reds are open to Eddie Guardado and Eric Milton returning, albeit at a drastically reduced price. "Those are two guys will keep in touch with," Krivsky said. The declined offering either arbitration.

--There are no untouchables. "Every organization has players who would be awfully hard to get," Krivsky said. "Someone would have to grossly overpay to acquire them. It’s unrealistic to think that’s going to happen." In other words, Jay Bruce, Homer Bailey or Cueto aren't going anywhere.

A lot there to digest. Cueto will be in spring training, Guardado and Milton have been contacted by Krivsky, and Bruce, Cueto, and Bailey are going nowhere unless someone overpays in a trade.

WK sure appears to be a changed man in regards to his openess to discuss the team's direction.

[kbrake]

Just happy that Cueto has been shut down. About time.

[Blue]

Most of the people on this board are seriously, SERIOUSLY undervaluing Josh Hamilton.

[757690]

Here is my prediction for what will happen this week in Nashville, Reds wise.

1) The Reds will sign Brett Tomko to a small two year deal worth $4M or less.
2) The Reds will trade EE to the Giants for Noah Lowry.
That is all that will happen in the Nashville.
Later, in January, when most of the Free Agents are signed, Krivsky will pick up a few starters off the scrap heap for close to the minimum, hoping that one of them comes through in Spring Training.

The Reds will not trade any of the big four, and will only trade Hamilton if they get a young, solid #2 or better pitcher in return. (although they will probably have to add some level two prospects to get that accomplished.)

[Bip Roberts]

Those Josh Hamilton rumors are real - and the Reds are asking for Sean Marshall. I think the Cubs would pull the trigger on that one. Jerry Crasnick first suggested this match about five hours ago. He thought Marshall wouldn't be enough and I agreed. Guess we'll see. Sullivan notes that Lou Piniella had some contact with Hamilton back when he managed the Devil Rays.

:bang:

[757690]

A trade of Hamilton to the Cubs will depend on whether or not Kosuke Fukudome signs with them. He's a left handed center fielder with power.

No need for the Cubs to make a decision until they know about Fukudome.

[Blue]

I really hope we don't trade him for that kind of mediocrity, especially in the division. The Cubs would kick our butts for the forseeable future.

[Bip Roberts]

really Marshall is the same dude that couldnt beat out Jason Marquis for a rotation spot.

[hippie07]

Those Josh Hamilton rumors are real - and the Reds are asking for Sean Marshall. I think the Cubs would pull the trigger on that one. Jerry Crasnick first suggested this match about five hours ago. He thought Marshall wouldn't be enough and I agreed. Guess we'll see. Sullivan notes that Lou Piniella had some contact with Hamilton back when he managed the Devil Rays.

:bang:

I'd rather trade Hammy to the Pirates for Snell if I were going to undersell him to a Central division team.

Do you have a link?

[Blue]

I think I'll probably lock myself in a room for a few days, eat ice cream, and not shave if this deal goes down.

[Bip Roberts]

I'd rather trade Hammy to the Pirates for Snell if I were going to undersell him to a Central division team.

Do you have a link?

http://chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/cs-071203cubs,1,1498288.story?coll=cs-home-headlines

[Blue]

Actually, if you read that article it seems like Sullivan doesn't have his own sources with regard to Hamilton. I hope it is just a false alarm.

[hippie07]

Here is my prediction for what will happen this week in Nashville, Reds wise.

1) The Reds will sign Brett Tomko to a small two year deal worth $4M or less.
2) The Reds will trade EE to the Giants for Noah Lowry.
That is all that will happen in the Nashville.
Later, in January, when most of the Free Agents are signed, Krivsky will pick up a few starters off the scrap heap for close to the minimum, hoping that one of them comes through in Spring Training.

The Reds will not trade any of the big four, and will only trade Hamilton if they get a young, solid #2 or better pitcher in return. (although they will probably have to add some level two prospects to get that accomplished.)

Do you think the Giants would do EE for Lowry at an even swap?

If so and people think he'd be a solid #3 (I don't know), then I'd do it, because even though I'd hate to give up EdE, he's probably the one of the big 5 that would hurt the least to lose, IMO. We'll miss he RH bat though, we'd need to hope that Cantu can step up and be productive

[757690]

Do you think the Giants would do EE for Lowry at an even swap?

If so and people think he'd be a solid #3 (I don't know), then I'd do it, because even though I'd hate to give up EdE, he's probably the one of the big 5 that would hurt the least to lose, IMO. We'll miss he RH bat though, we'd need to hope that Cantu can step up and be productive

Not sure the Giants would do an even swap, but I am sure the two teams could work something out. They are desperate for a thirdbaseman.

EE would be replaced by Keppinger, who is right handed, and had a higher slugging percentage than EE last year. And you are correct, Cantu would be needed to fill that void too. But I think he can, he is a huge improvement over Conine.

[Jay Bruce]

For the last two seasons, Lowry has been an awful pitcher. His K/9 was 4.74 in 2006, and improved to a still awful 5.02 in 2007. On the other hand, his BB/9 increased from a mediocre (considering the lack of K's) 3.16 to an horrible 5.02. Basically, he walks too many guys, and doesn't strike out nearly enough. In addition, his GB/FB ratio for his career is only 1.01. His HR/9 for his career is an adequate 0.93, but his HR/FB percentage suggest that this low number is a product of playing at AT&T park. If the Reds give up Encarnacion, or anything of value for Lowry, it will be an abysmal move.

[Blue]

There's a blurb up on MLBTradeRumors that makes me think the Giants may indeed move one of Matt Cain or Tim Lincecum. It says that the Giants spent much of the day watching tape of the two trying to determine which one they like better. Personally, I would prefer Cain because of his durable build, but they're both good pitchers.

[757690]

For the last two seasons, Lowry has been an awful pitcher. His K/9 was 4.74 in 2006, and improved to a still awful 5.02 in 2007. On the other hand, his BB/9 increased from a mediocre (considering the lack of K's) 3.16 to an horrible 5.02. Basically, he walks too many guys, and doesn't strike out nearly enough. In addition, his GB/FB ratio for his career is only 1.01. His HR/9 for his career is an adequate 0.93, but his HR/FB percentage suggest that this low number is a product of playing at AT&T park. If the Reds give up Encarnacion, or anything of value for Lowry, it will be an abysmal move.


I am sorry, but I can't respect the opinion of anyone who says that a guy who was 21-18 with a 4.33 ERA on last place team the last two years was "an awful pitcher".
Maybe he wasn't as good as those numbers indicate, but he won games, and didn't allow the other team to score lots of runs when he pitched. That is his job, and he was not "awful" if he did his job.

He walks too many guys, yes, but he doesn't give up many hits. His ERA is way below the league average, and it can't all be the park, because it is the same on the road as it is at home. And it is half a run lower than Zito's who pitched in the same park.

He also only gave up 33 homers in the last two years (16.5 a year, and only 12 last year). I am sure that he would give up more if he pitched in GABP, but even if it went up by half to 25 a year, he would be better than Harang and Arroyo in that department.

Only three times last year did he give up more than 4 runs, and two of those times were the last two starts, when he was probably wiped out. He had 16 quality starts in 26 games, almost the same ratio of Harang. Was Harang "awful" last year?

He probably will have a career similar to Kurt Rueter, or Tom Browning, look at their stats. Were they "awful" pitchers?

He is a solid back of the rotation pitcher who can give the team lots of innings, and keep his team in the game. He may not be a very good pitcher, but he definitely is not "awful" and is better than what the Reds have now at the end of the rotation, which is nothing.

I would gladly give up EE for him.

[AmarilloRed]

I think Krivsky will only move Hamilton if he gets a #2 or better back in trade. I don't think Hamilton will be moved for a #3-#5 starter. He has always been reluctant to trade value players, unless he had a similar player available to take his place in the minors

[Jay Bruce]

I am sorry, but I can't respect the opinion of anyone who says that a guy who was 21-18 with a 4.33 ERA on last place team the last two years was "an awful pitcher".
Maybe he wasn't as good as those numbers indicate, but he won games, and didn't allow the other team to score lots of runs when he pitched. That is his job, and he was not "awful" if he did his job.

He walks too many guys, yes, but he doesn't give up many hits. His ERA is way below the league average, and it can't all be the park, because it is the same on the road as it is at home. And it is half a run lower than Zito's who pitched in the same park.

He also only gave up 33 homers in the last two years (16.5 a year, and only 12 last year). I am sure that he would give up more if he pitched in GABP, but even if it went up by half to 25 a year, he would be better than Harang and Arroyo in that department.

Only three times last year did he give up more than 4 runs, and two of those times were the last two starts, when he was probably wiped out. He had 16 quality starts in 26 games, almost the same ratio of Harang. Was Harang "awful" last year?

He probably will have a career similar to Kurt Rueter, or Tom Browning, look at their stats. Were they "awful" pitchers?

He is a solid back of the rotation pitcher who can give the team lots of innings, and keep his team in the game. He may not be a very good pitcher, but he definitely is not "awful" and is better than what the Reds have now at the end of the rotation, which is nothing.

I would gladly give up EE for him.

In the last two years, his xFIP (ERA independent of defense and park factors, assuming average luck), were 5.66 and 5.47. Those are awful xFIP numbers. If Lowry was with the Reds, who have a poor defense, and a small ballpark, his ERA would be much closer to this level, making him a number 5 level starter at best (If I was being generous).

To give up a promising third baseman like EE for him would be ludicrous.

[757690]

In the last two years, his xFIP (ERA independent of defense and park factors, assuming average luck), were 5.66 and 5.47. Those are awful xFIP numbers. If Lowry was with the Reds, who have a poor defense, and a small ballpark, his ERA would be much closer to this level, making him a number 5 level starter at best (If I was being generous).

To give up a promising third baseman like EE for him would be ludicrous.

xFIP is a joke. The only way to truely get a real xFIP is to watch every pitch thrown, and judge every at bat against that pitcher. But that is not how it is done. It simply is using the flyball ratio of a pitcher to adjust his ERA. It is still listed as an "experimental" stat, meaning that there is no real evidence to support it.

To give you an idea of how much it is a joke, at how poor it is at predicting a pitchers potential ERA, look at this from Baseball Times in 2005.

Here is a list of pitchers most likely to improve according to xFIP.

Brown K. NYA 24.0 8.25 3.80 4.45
Wright J. NYA 19.7 9.15 5.10 4.05
Lilly T. TOR 24.3 7.77 4.29 3.47
Anderson B. KC 28.7 6.91 4.01 2.90
Elarton S. CLE 25.0 7.20 4.50 2.70
Bell R. TB 25.0 8.28 5.63 2.65
Backe B. HOU 35.7 6.81 4.22 2.60
Kennedy J. COL 33.3 7.56 5.05 2.51
Lohse K. MIN 21.7 6.65 4.15 2.49
Harper T. TB 18.7 6.27 3.82 2.45
Wood K. CHN 26.3 6.15 3.78 2.38
Wilson P. CIN 36.0 7.25 5.11 2.14
Vazquez J. ARI 44.0 4.70 2.71 2.00


And here is a list of pitchers most likely to decline according to xFIP:

Blanton J. OAK 30.3 2.67 5.39 -2.72
Garland J. CHA 39.0 1.38 4.01 -2.63
Chacon S. COL 22.0 3.27 5.87 -2.60
Rogers K. TEX 38.3 2.11 4.60 -2.48
Moehler B. FLA 24.7 2.19 4.40 -2.21
Hampton M. ATL 43.7 2.47 4.62 -2.15
Patterson J. WAS 33.7 1.60 3.71 -2.11
Sabathia C. CLE 24.0 2.63 4.62 -2.00
Contreras J. CHA 34.7 2.60 4.54 -1.94
Seo J. NYN 18.0 2.00 3.93 -1.93
Santos V. MIL 34.3 2.88 4.79 -1.90
Robertson N. DET 28.0 4.18 6.08 -1.90


Yep, that xFIP did a great job. Kevin Brown, Kerry Wood, Paul Wilson, Rob Bell, Kyle Lohse, they all were CY Young candidates, right? I'll give you Ted Lilly, so it was right 10% of the time. But other stats showed the same thing.

And Joe Blanton, CC Sabathia, Jon Garland, and Kenny Rogers have shown how "awful" they really are. It was right about Seo, Santos, Chacon, and Moehler, but again, you didn't need xFIP to tell you that they were going to decline.

As I said at the top, xFIP is joke. Pretty much worthless.

[*BaseClogger*]

Noah Lowry was not awful despite doing some really bad things. Noah Lowry will be awful going forward.

[mlbfan30]

You might say xFIP is worthless, but then say Wins matter? You say ERA matters?
You have to consider the park when determining the quality of pitchers. The Giants have historically had a pitchers park, with low HR numbers. The Reds is a hitters with high HR numbers. Lowery is neutral (1:1) in GB/FB ratio, so his HR/9 will increase. He also has played behind a decent (yet old) SF defense. His ERA is deceiving considering his high WHIP and bad peripherals. HE HAD A 1/1 K/BB RATIO LAST YEAR! He isn't a #3. His FIP has been around 5.00 the past 2 years. Belisle is a better pitcher. Would you give up EE to get another Belisle? Nope

[757690]

You might say xFIP is worthless, but then say Wins matter? You say ERA matters?
You have to consider the park when determining the quality of pitchers. The Giants have historically had a pitchers park, with low HR numbers. The Reds is a hitters with high HR numbers. Lowery is neutral (1:1) in GB/FB ratio, so his HR/9 will increase. He also has played behind a decent (yet old) SF defense. His ERA is deceiving considering his high WHIP and bad peripherals. HE HAD A 1/1 K/BB RATIO LAST YEAR! He isn't a #3. His FIP has been around 5.00 the past 2 years. Belisle is a better pitcher. Would you give up EE to get another Belisle? Nope


In my previous post, I said everything you just said. That his stats will get worse in GABP, but just not as bad as everyone is assuming.

His ERA is the same on the road as it is at home, in fact, most of his stats are as well. That is by far the most important stat to look at in determining how a pitcher will fair in a new ballpark.

Also, he only gave up 12 HR's last year. Even if that doubles, that is less than Harang or Aroyyo. And he had the same ratio of quality starts. in fact, he kept he team in the game in nearly every game.

You guys seem to be obsessed with certain stats, as if they are the only ones you need to look at in determining how good a pitcher is and will be. K/BB is important, but some pitchers are able to succeed with a bad K/BB ratio. Look at Tom Browning and Kurt Reuter. There are many more.

One stat where he is very different from Belisle, is consistency. Belisle is either great, or awful. Lowry is always just OK. He may not be a #3, but he is a solid #4 or #5, which is what I think EE is worth. I mean if Hamilton or Votto is only worth a #3, then EE is only worth a #4 or 5.

[*BaseClogger*]

In my previous post, I said everything you just said. That his stats will get worse in GABP, but just not as bad as everyone is assuming.

His ERA is the same on the road as it is at home, in fact, most of his stats are as well. That is by far the most important stat to look at in determining how a pitcher will fair in a new ballpark.

Also, he only gave up 12 HR's last year. Even if that doubles, that is less than Harang or Aroyyo. And he had the same ratio of quality starts. in fact, he kept he team in the game in nearly every game.

You guys seem to be obsessed with certain stats, as if they are the only ones you need to look at in determining how good a pitcher is and will be. K/BB is important, but some pitchers are able to succeed with a bad K/BB ratio. Look at Tom Browning and Kurt Reuter. There are many more.

One stat where he is very different from Belisle, is consistency. Belisle is either great, or awful. Lowry is always just OK. He may not be a #3, but he is a solid #4 or #5, which is what I think EE is worth. I mean if Hamilton or Votto is only worth a #3, then EE is only worth a #4 or 5.

So what do you expect from Lowry in a Reds uniform next year?

By the way- it's Kirk Rueter

EDIT- Also, his home roads splits might not be huge because the NL West is four pitchers parks and Coors...

[Bip Roberts]

Lowry is not good, his K/BB ratio was awful and hes a soft tossing lefty.

Bad bad idea

[757690]

Lowry is not good, his K/BB ratio was awful and hes a soft tossing lefty.

Bad bad idea


It might be a bad bad idea, but....

As I said before, K/BB ratio is really his only bad stat, and there have been many successful pitchers with bad K/BB ratios.

Eric Milton was a hard throwing lefty. I would rather have a soft tosser, since they tend to give up less homers. Lowry only gave up 12 last year.

To answer Baseclogger:

I respect you response that he was not that bad, but he will be awful in the future. I could see that happen. But I could also see him staying close to the same. His numbers say so many different things about his future, but I understand why someone would be scared to get him.

In terms of his home/away and what I think he would do in a Reds uniform:

In eight games at homer happy parks, he gave up 6 homers (which would translate to 22 homers in 30 starts) and had a 3.93 ERA. If you assume that GABP is the worst, then he'll probably give up 28 homers (the same as Harang and Arroyo) and a 4.5 ERA. For a back of the rotation, that is pretty good, and better than what the Reds have now.

[Bip Roberts]

How many have had 1:1 ratio?

[757690]

How many have had 1:1 ratio?

First, Lowry has a 1.66 K/BB ratio for his career. That was just last year. Not fair to hold him to one year.

Second, Kirk (thanks baseclogger) Rueter had close to a 1:1 ratio in his last five full years (327:295), and averaged 12 wins a year and around a 4 era over that period.

Third, I agree Lowry is not the best option. But he is not as bad as everyone is making him out to be.

[Bip Roberts]

He has a bad whip in a pitchers park and strikes out no one.

Honestly id rather give maloney a chance before trading someone for Lowry.

[757690]

I agree that Maloney is a better option than Lowry. I'd rather not get Lowry, but I do think the Reds need someone to add depth to the pitching staff, even if Maloney is an answer for this year.

[SMcGavin]

I'd pass on Lowry. There are many more options out there, I'd rather just sign Tomko than trade talent for Lowry.

[*BaseClogger*]

I can't wait to bring this thread up in July when Lowry's ERA is 5.5...

[757690]

I can't wait to bring this thread up in July when Lowry's ERA is 5.5...

If that is directed at me, awesome! Feel free to bring it up, although I can assure you I will make many more, even dumber comments between now and then. ;)