What an Orioles fan is saying about Bedard's worth. Very insightful.

[Vada Pinson Fan]

I was looking around Oriole forums and trying to find something of interest from an Oriole fan's perspective. I found such a fan. This person has realized, concerning Bedard's worth, exactly what I hope Krivsky and McPhail understand sooner rather than later.

The Orioles fans are realizing that asking for Jay Bruce is too much. They seem to be setting their sights on Joey Votto and one of Bailey or Cueto. They also have high interest in acquiring Keppinger(although this poster didn't mention Keppinger in the thread, others did). Here's the quote:

JTrea8
Plus Member since 03/03
Hall of Fame



"You have to look at this from another team's standpoint though. Dan Haren who is thought to be a better pitcher than Bedard by some only required one top prospect, in Gonzalez. Now they did get 5 other players back but nowhere in the status of what we are asking for. So why should a team pony up two or more top prospects for a pitcher that has had durability questions and only was an ace for 1.5 years with only two years left on his contract and is now 28 when a 27 yr old pitcher under control for three years with no durablity questions went for less. We are lucky to be getting two top prospects after Beane undercut us let alone three."

"If Bailey/Cueto and Votto are offered with whatever else, I pull the trigger."

This points out just how much we lost out on by not acquiring Haren and how long he would have been in the Reds control. Kudos to the D'backs for pulling off what Wayne couldn't.

As I've pointed out in other posts of mine; I hope Wayne Krivsky sits tight and does NOT offer Joey Votto. We have no one else even close to him in the Reds system. Votto is the long-term solution for the Reds at 1st base.

My final offer for Bedard would be Bailey, Keppinger,Coffey, Valaika, and Drew Stubbs. My reasoning is how long each team would control their new player(s) and very fair for a pitcher "that has had durability problems". This weighs heavily in Baltimore's favor in terms of player control. IMO it is favorable to the Oakland - Arizona trade involving Haren. Your thoughts?

Happy Holidays Everyone!!!

[BucksandReds]

No more than Bailey, Hamilton and scrubs. I'd keep kepp. He'll be a great utility guy for years more of cheap baseball.

[Natty Redlocks]

Your thoughts?



I think Bedard will help Seattle a lot, and I think the Orioles are gonna love Adam Jones.

[OUReds]

I think that if that's the best offer the O's have, they're better off waiting for the trading deadline.

[BLEEDS]

They won't get crap out of the trade deadline. They will get MORE now for him, since he can be utilized the entire 2008 season.

Cueto, Hamilton and a couple more prospects, maybe a Stubbs. The O's need OF's, and CF in particular.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[OUReds]

I agree 100%, they would be foolish to wait until the trade deadline. They'll get a better offer then Bailey, Keppinger,Coffey, Valaika, and Drew Stubbs though.

[Nasty_Boy]

I think Bedard will help Seattle a lot, and I think the Orioles are gonna love Adam Jones.

I totally agree! If the Mariners include Adam Jones in the deal along with a pitching prospect, the O's would be crazy not accept that offer. Jones is a top 10 overall talent... the Reds have the depth in their farm system that could pull off the deal, but the M's seem more likely to include top talent.

[Vada Pinson Fan]

I agree 100%, they would be foolish to wait until the trade deadline. They'll get a better offer then Bailey, Keppinger,Coffey, Valaika, and Drew Stubbs though.

It basically comes down to the top players offered from the Reds and Marinersm (if indeed these are the top players being offered). Here is the breakdown and ranking of Homer Bailey and Adam Jones from a minor league ranking site:
#5 · Cincinnati Reds ·Homer Bailey, Previously ranked#6
Cincinnati (MLB) 4-2, 5.76ERA, 45.1IP, 28BB, 28K, 1.57 WHIP,
Louisville (AAA) 6-1, 2.31ERA, 58.1IP, 24BB, 51K, .191BAA


#16 Seattle Mariners · Adam Jones, Previously ranked#39
Tacoma (AAA) 80G .304, 20(2B), 5(3B), 19HR, 68RBI, 28BB, 86K, 5SB


Pitching, being what it is, is what Baltimore needs back, to "flip" Bailey for more talent as well as keeping the other position players the Reds may offer. Overall, I'm not all that impressed With Jones if I could get Bailey.

[OUReds]

It's not Bailey that is the problem. Keppinger, Coffey, Valaika, and Drew Stubbs are all of very limited trade value

[flash]

The solution to the first base issue is named Griffey or Dunn. That is why Votto is availible. It hasn't been talked about publicly, but Griiffey has indicated in every possible way he wants to remain in Cincy and play for Baker. (Appearance at Nuxhall's funeral and Redsfest proved this. )

[ChatterRed]

The Reds won't be getting Bedard. More than likely, Seattle will trade Adam Jones straight up for him. The only thing comparable the Reds have at this point is Bailey straight up for him.

[*BaseClogger*]

The Reds won't be getting Bedard. More than likely, Seattle will trade Adam Jones straight up for him. The only thing comparable the Reds have at this point is Bailey straight up for him.

I'd do that...

[BucksandReds]

Word is that they want 3 of our top prospects. I see no way we make a deal if they demand an outfielder like the word is. I would give Bailey, EE and a couple of mid level prospects for a shot at the WS, however.

[Dracodave]

I would give up Ceuto, Maloney and thats it now that we Edinson. Atleast we give up something to get something.

[Degenerate39]

Bedard will probably not be traded before Opening Day
Saturday, Dec 22, 2007 10:00 am EST


After listening to trade proposals for his ace for the past couple of months, Andy MacPhail says it is a "strong likelihood" that Erik Bedard will be the Baltimore Orioles' Opening Day starter rather than being traded the Baltimore Sun reported.

Bedard, a 28-year-old left-hander, is the Orioles' biggest trade chip, and moving him for three to four young and major league-ready players would be one of the quickest ways to accelerate the team's rebuilding process. At this point, no team has come close to matching their asking price.

The Cincinnati Reds won't include top outfield prospect Jay Bruce in a deal for Bedard. The Los Angeles Dodgers, instead signed Japanese right-hander Hiroki Kuroda and were reluctant to deal outfielder Matt Kemp and pitching prospect Clayton Kershaw. The Seattle Mariners remain interested in Bedard, even after signing free-agent right-hander Carlos Silva. However, Mariners general manager Bill Bavasi told the Seattle Post-Intelligencer that pitcher Brandon Morrow, whom the Orioles covet along with outfielder Adam Jones, is "highly, highly unlikely" to be traded.

Source: Baltimore Sun

[Dracodave]

Let the mariners give up more than needed for him. I'd rather go through and get more young pitchers like Edinson to compete for years.

[Why Not?]

By the way, the initial post in this thread is pulled from OriolesHangout.com, a very good Orioles board. Fans of other teams are welcome!

[ChatterRed]

Word is that they want 3 of our top prospects. I see no way we make a deal if they demand an outfielder like the word is. I would give Bailey, EE and a couple of mid level prospects for a shot at the WS, however.

It seems like the better the prospects you have, the more the other team wants. And the less prospects you have, the less they want. How stupid.

Why not trade with the Reds and GET ONE OUTSTANDING PROSPECT?

[Vada Pinson Fan]

It's not Bailey that is the problem. Keppinger, Coffey, Valaika, and Drew Stubbs are all of very limited trade value

I would have thought that too except look at the bottom players Oakland accepted in the Haren trade with Arizona.
I still think what I suggested is fair. Bailey is our #2 prospect out of the Big 4, Keppinger- The Oriole fans want Jeff badly so we include him, Coffey can still hit 94-95 mph and I think a change of scenery does him well, Valaika is a top 10 prospect in the Reds system and Stubbs isn't far behind though still a little green/young but Baltimore needs guys like Stubbs: young, talented and controllable.

[AmarilloRed]

The Orioles were looking for teams to overpay for Bedard, and none of them did. We would not give them Bruce, Seattle would not give them Jones, and the Dodgers pulled out after they got Kuroda. Baltimore did end up being too greedy, and they now will spend the rest of 2008 with Bedard on their team.

[Orenda]

The Orioles were looking for teams to overpay for Bedard, and none of them did. We would not give them Bruce, Seattle would not give them Jones, and the Dodgers pulled out after they got Kuroda. Baltimore did end up being too greedy, and they now will spend the rest of 2008 with Bedard on their team.

You act like having a really good pitcher on the roster for the next two years is a bad thing. Bedard can still bring value at the deadline someone in contention will go for it. If Baltimore doesn't feel they are getting enough value in return then I don't blame them for not dealing him. Much like when other teams tried to force Krivsky's hand with Dunn last year, sometimes it just doesn't pay to cave in.

[tripleaaaron]

The solution to the first base issue is named Griffey or Dunn. That is why Votto is availible. It hasn't been talked about publicly, but Griiffey has indicated in every possible way he wants to remain in Cincy and play for Baker. (Appearance at Nuxhall's funeral and Redsfest proved this. )
Dont think griffeys appearance at nuxies funeral has anything to do with this. He has known nuxie since he was a child, he went out of respect and to pay tribute, not because he wants an extension to his contract.

[AmarilloRed]

You act like having a really good pitcher on the roster for the next two years is a bad thing. Bedard can still bring value at the deadline someone in contention will go for it. If Baltimore doesn't feel they are getting enough value in return then I don't blame them for not dealing him. Much like when other teams tried to force Krivsky's hand with Dunn last year, sometimes it just doesn't pay to cave in.

It will not help Baltimore very much, because they will still not make the playoffs. It would have been best if they had tried to make a reasonable deal, and they could have gotten some top-rank prospects to help for the future. Baltimore will now have Bedard the next 2 years, and then will end up with nothing because he will not extend with the Orioles. As for trading him at the deadline, I expect Baltimore will have to come down on their demands to make any trade happen.

[Orenda]

Yeah they might not get the return they could get now, but they will still get something valuable towards their rebuild if he is healthy. Also the teams in competition with pitching woes might start to get desperate, you never know who will get injured or have a down year. Another thing that should help Baltimore is the fact that Johan Santana should be dealt and teams may be hesistant to part with top prospects for a rental and at least Bedard would have another season with whoever acquired him. My point is, there will still be plenty of suitors come September. I agree it does seem odd he wasn't dealt after the Tejada trade, but maybe this eases the sting for Baltimore fans. I'm sure at the deadline when Baltimore is 20 games out more fans will be less hostile toward another rebuild. Im just trying to defend a team not getting rid of their best player, what an odd thought.

[jmac]

The Orioles were looking for teams to overpay for Bedard, and none of them did. We would not give them Bruce, Seattle would not give them Jones, and the Dodgers pulled out after they got Kuroda. Baltimore did end up being too greedy, and they now will spend the rest of 2008 with Bedard on their team.
The O's remind me of that game on Price Is Right where you have won the trip to Paris but you want the car so you keep playing and end up with the dining room set instead.
They will eventually get something for him but definitely not what they had hoped and everyday he is still with them after the season starts, the package will diminsh alittle.

[Why Not?]

Despite what McPhail might say in the papers, I don't think a Bedard trade should be ruled out this offseason. I don't think anyone knows what the asking price REALLY is or how close the Reds or Mariners or a mystery team is to meeting that price.

It's entirely possible that somebody has already offered what McPhail wants and he's holding out for a little extra. He could also be waiting to pull the trigger on Bedard until he sees what comes back in a Brian Roberts trade.

[HeatherC1212]

As both an O's fan and a long time Reds fan (and who is also a member of Orioles Hangout which is a great board), I'd love to see Erik in a Reds uniform but not at the expense of the entire farm system. I know you have to give up something to get something but we haven't had a decent farm system in a long time so giving up too much of it for a guy who could leave in two years makes me very nervous. If something can be worked out where we get him and don't give up the farm, then I'm all for it but we have a lot of young pitching with a lot of upside and if they can all put it together, we'd have a strong staff for several years instead of just one or two. I'd rather have a stronger team for a longer amount of time than a strong team for only one or two years. I keep thinking back to what Detroit did two season ago (2006) with their young pitching staff and who knows, maybe we can do that too. You never know! :)

[Vada Pinson Fan]

If the farm system keeps producing at this level (since 2004 onward) for the Reds, we give every chance to Homer Bailey, Johnny Cueto, Edinson Volquez and Matt Maloney. I keep these guys rather than leave the cupboard quite bare in a blockbuster trade.

Looking at the Red Sox, the Tigers, the Yankees and the Angels not to mention the NL brethern; Diamondbacks, Rockies, Mets and Cubs.... even with Bedard the Reds are unlikely to get past the Diamondbacks with Webb, Haren and company in '08. No way we stack up with the above-mentioned AL clubs either. So if I'm WK, I go to spring training w/o Bedard and with my young stars. I sign Mike Cameron and one of L.Hernandez, Lieber or Prior in that order and set my sights on 2009 but certainly giving it everything I've got to make the playoffs this coming season.

Now in 2009 I'm hoping the Reds make a big splash into the Free Agency market like they did this year w/ Cordero and sign a big name stud starting pitcher in the offseason of 2008.
Get a better catcher than we currently have b/c Mesoroco probably won't be ready. The Reds at this point appear to have a bright future because of their farm system producing and not having to depend on "what ifs". And as much as these thoughts go- It would be so great for the team and city if the Reds fans supported our team to the tune of 3 million fans in home attendance! Realistically, anything above 2.6m and I'm happy!

[Hondo]

Trade for Santana and Bedard and have the Central Title the next 5 years...

Thanks

[schmidty622]

Trade for Santana and Bedard and have the Central Title the next 5 years...

Thanks

Uhh not gonna happen.

Your Welcome

[Hondo]

Uhh not gonna happen.

Your Welcome


Touche