How good is Matt Belisle?

[*BaseClogger*]

I have seen many different opinions of Matt Belisle. Some, such as myself, believe that he is a solid #4/#5 now, and could develope into a #3. Others, think he is a borderline #5 guy that is better served with a move to the bullpen... What do you expect from Matt Belisle in 2008 and beyond?

[captainmorgan07]

i expect belisle to be a solid #4 starter this season and beyond. If he really works hard he can become a #3 starter. Last year was his first full year a starter and had his up and downs. he needs to continue to develop his pitches and stamina so he can go later in games than he did last year. If Belisle could work in a sinker to his arsenal he would be even more successful. He had games where he would throw a complete game and look dominant and others he wouldn't last 3 or 4 innings.

[Natty Redlocks]

FUTURE ACE BABY!!!

And Hopper will be MVP!!!

[*BaseClogger*]

FUTURE ACE BABY!!!

And Hopper will be MVP!!!

Thanks for taking the poll seriously... :mooner:

[Dracodave]

I think honestly that if he can work through his back issues and build on last year, he's a threat to be a controlled cheap and good number 3 starter. He had the potentional with the Braves when we traded for him and he showed flashes of it last season.

[HalMorrisRules]

Count me among those who are unimpressed by Belisle. Either make him a bullpen long man or cut him.

[*BaseClogger*]

Count me among those who are unimpressed by Belisle. Either make him a bullpen long man or cut him.

care to illustrate for us?

[*BaseClogger*]

It's interesting to see how much the opinion on Belisle varies... JUST AS I EXPECTED! :D

[HeatherC1212]

I think he's a back end of the rotation starter right now but he does have the potential to be more in the middle of the rotation guy. Last year was his first year starting in the majors and he definitely had his ups and downs but I think he will do much better this year having some experience behind him. He's a hard working guy and I hope he can parlay that into a great year. :)

[Bip Roberts]

Im going with 4 or 5 with number 3 potential

[redsfanmia]

I think Beslile would be perfect as the long man/6th starter spot on a good team.

[HalMorrisRules]

care to illustrate for us?

I have heard several places, including from WK himself that Belisle finished strong and should be strong this season because of that strong finish. Here are his September stats.

IP H R ER HR BB SO DEC ERA
30.2 30 19 18 4 9 21 1-1 5.28

His 5 starts in September featured ER totals of 5,2,5,4 & 2. Not exactly what I would call "finishing strong"

Not convinced yet? His August numbers were equally as "strong."

IP H R ER HR BB SO DEC ERA
23.0 30 14 14 5 5 19 2-0 5.48

Should I go on? Ok, here's July's numbers.

IP H R ER HR BB SO DEC ERA
25.2 39 19 18 4 7 18 0-3 6.31

But wait, there's more. June was his best yet

IP H R ER HR BB SO DEC ERA
28.2 36 23 22 8 10 19 0-1 6.91


I, along with most Reds fans were very encouraged by his good start to the season, but he quickly came back to earth and left quite a divot. I just do not see why so many people see reason for optimism.

[GoReds33]

This year is his last chance. Honestly, I hope he can turn into a third starter. Right now he's a fifth starter at best.

[*BaseClogger*]

I have heard several places, including from WK himself that Belisle finished strong and should be strong this season because of that strong finish. Here are his September stats.

IP H R ER HR BB SO DEC ERA
30.2 30 19 18 4 9 21 1-1 5.28

His 5 starts in September featured ER totals of 5,2,5,4 & 2. Not exactly what I would call "finishing strong"

Not convinced yet? His August numbers were equally as "strong."

IP H R ER HR BB SO DEC ERA
23.0 30 14 14 5 5 19 2-0 5.48

Should I go on? Ok, here's July's numbers.

IP H R ER HR BB SO DEC ERA
25.2 39 19 18 4 7 18 0-3 6.31

But wait, there's more. June was his best yet

IP H R ER HR BB SO DEC ERA
28.2 36 23 22 8 10 19 0-1 6.91


I, along with most Reds fans were very encouraged by his good start to the season, but he quickly came back to earth and left quite a divot. I just do not see why so many people see reason for optimism.

so are you saying his first two months were just a fluke?

[mlbfan30]

I have heard several places, including from WK himself that Belisle finished strong and should be strong this season because of that strong finish. Here are his September stats.

IP H R ER HR BB SO DEC ERA
30.2 30 19 18 4 9 21 1-1 5.28

His 5 starts in September featured ER totals of 5,2,5,4 & 2. Not exactly what I would call "finishing strong"

Not convinced yet? His August numbers were equally as "strong."

IP H R ER HR BB SO DEC ERA
23.0 30 14 14 5 5 19 2-0 5.48

Should I go on? Ok, here's July's numbers.

IP H R ER HR BB SO DEC ERA
25.2 39 19 18 4 7 18 0-3 6.31

But wait, there's more. June was his best yet

IP H R ER HR BB SO DEC ERA
28.2 36 23 22 8 10 19 0-1 6.91


I, along with most Reds fans were very encouraged by his good start to the season, but he quickly came back to earth and left quite a divot. I just do not see why so many people see reason for optimism.

So here's my question. What do you consider a quality outing to be. Is it 6 IP / 3 ER , defined as a quality start? Or do you think it's more like 7IP/2ER. What stat line is good enough to be considered a good enough start for a back-end type starter. Is 7IP/4ER good enough even though it isnt a "QS". What about 5/3 or 5/2.

[TC81190]

It was his first full year of starting in the majors. I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt, and allow him some time to develop. It's also not like Bailey or Cueto are exactly ready to blow the doors off the rotation, so he's really our best option there, as well.

[HalMorrisRules]

so are you saying his first two months were just a fluke?

Yes, 4 months is a bigger sample size than the first two months. Are you saying that his 4 months of bad starts are the fluke? His BAA was .301 and batters OPS'd .822 against him. Do you really want another year of that in the rotation?

[mlbfan30]

Answer my question. What kind of start is good enough.

[Dracodave]

Yes, 4 months is a bigger sample size than the first two months. Are you saying that his 4 months of bad starts are the fluke? His BAA was .301 and batters OPS'd .822 against him. Do you really want another year of that in the rotation?


Take out the defense factor to see how reds pitchers relly did..


Name ERA FIP R/9 PMR-R/9
Belisle 5.32 4.54 5.62 5.60



FIP is an estimate of ERA based strictly on readily available pitcher peripherals -- k/9, bb/9, and hr/9. Differences between FIP and ERA, in general, are due to poor fielding, "clumping" of offensive events in a manner that deviates from the norm, or non-hr park effects. Differences between R/9 and PMR-R/9, on the other hand, can probably be considered to be strictly due to differences in fielding.

[mlbfan30]

Also the Reds bad bullpen increased his ERA due to inherited runners compared to what a league average bullpen would cause. I don't know what the value of the stat means yet. But to put it in perspective, Harang had a higher value. Arroyo had a low value. This means Harang got the most unlucky with inherited runners last year.
This is Baseball Prospectus stuff, and I'm new to it so I'm still trying to understand the stats.

[HalMorrisRules]

Also the Reds bad bullpen increased his ERA due to inherited runners compared to what a league average bullpen would cause. I don't know what the value of the stat means yet. But to put it in perspective, Harang had a higher value. Arroyo had a low value. This means Harang got the most unlucky with inherited runners last year.
This is Baseball Prospectus stuff, and I'm new to it so I'm still trying to understand the stats.

The relievers didnt let batters hit .302 off of him. Once again, is that something you want to endure for another season? .302 is absolutely unacceptable even from a 5th starter.

IP H R ER HR BB SO DEC ERA
152.7 163 94 88 29 42 90 8-8 5.19

177.7 212 111 105 26 43 125 8-9 5.32

Which of those two season pitching lines would you want pitching for your team? If I had to choose one, I would take the top pitching line. It also happens to be the 2006 season for Eric Milton. Would you want him back this season? Milton's BAA was .269 and his OPS against was .794.

I will end my comments by saying this. If he is in the Reds rotation I will support him to the fullest but I just do not see him as one of their top 5 starting options.

[mlbfan30]

You still havn't answered my question
I was talking about this in another thread.
You can't use just 1 stat when evaluating a pitcher, or any player.
A .301 BAA isn't great, but he doesn't walk many people. His OBA was .343, which is 39th in the NL with more than 140ip.
14 teams x 3 starters = 42
Which means Belisle is a low #3, high #4 starter in terms of OBP.
Arroyo's OBA was .338, not much difference.

[AmarilloRed]

He is a #4 now, but could be a #3 in time.

[Nasty_Boy]

I seen enough flashes out Belisle to give him the edge for a rotation spot. He had two starts that he took no-hitters past the 5th inning... I know that doesn't mean a whole helluva lot but Belisle has some very good stuff. He may not be able to put it all together this season or ever but he's got a great arm and good makeup. Give him another chance but if things start going south, pull the plug.

[I(heart)Freel]

I see him as a Lohse type. Those flashes of brillance followed by outings that make you pull your armpit hair one at a time.

[*BaseClogger*]

If Matt Belisle was a FA right now would he be the best pitcher on the market?

[Dracodave]

If Matt Belisle was a FA right now would he be the best pitcher on the market?


I still believe the best starter on the market currently is Josh Towers..can be had cheap and will be just as good as Silva.

[schmidty622]

If Matt Belisle was a FA right now would he be the best pitcher on the market?

He would maybe be the best long relief option but in his 37 career starts he has not been very good.

[*BaseClogger*]

He would maybe be the best long relief option but in his 37 career starts he has not been very good.

He had a FIP of 4.54 and and xFIP of 4.32 wtih 6.3 K/G and 2.2 BB/G. In those regards, he was better than Arroyo last year. More people on this board thinks that he is a middle-of-rotation starter than bullpen candidate, so you're kinda outnumbered there... IT WAS HIS FIRST YEAR AS A STARTER!!!

[schmidty622]

I understand that it was his first year as a starter, but the #3 spot is not a place to let a guy sit and develop on a team that wants to win now. That would be like saying Bailey should be in the three hole because last year was his first attempt at starting. Let him take his lumps as the #4/5 guy and see if he can work his way up the rotation.

How much improvement do you expect out of him?

[*BaseClogger*]

I understand that it was his first year as a starter, but the #3 spot is not a place to let a guy sit and develop on a team that wants to win now. That would be like saying Bailey should be in the three hole because last year was his first attempt at starting. Let him take his lumps as the #4/5 guy and see if he can work his way up the rotation.

How much improvement do you expect out of him?

I expect a 4.50 ERA, which would be about as good as Jon Lieber or any of the other FA's. This team is built to win in 2009, and therefore I think it is OK if he fills the #3 spot until one of the young guns develope...

[TC81190]

I understand that it was his first year as a starter, but the #3 spot is not a place to let a guy sit and develop on a team that wants to win now. That would be like saying Bailey should be in the three hole because last year was his first attempt at starting. Let him take his lumps as the #4/5 guy and see if he can work his way up the rotation.

How much improvement do you expect out of him?

OK, so who do you suppose we put in that 3 spot instead of Belisle then? We don't have an Santana or Bedard laying around we can just plug in there. He happens to be the best option we have.

Also, keep in mind, Belisle was at his worst later in the season, which was also his first full year of starting (in the majors.) That can take some of your stuff away the more tired you are, so for a guy like Belisle who is still developing his command, that doesn't leave him much to fall back on. The more endurance he builds, the less you'll see of that.