Trade Idea Revisited: Alex Rios for Johnny Cueto

[Edd Roush]

So, I know I don't usually post whacky trade ideas like Krusty, but I was just thinking today, would I trade one of your young starters for a better than average CF who can play defense and lead off?

I came to the conclusion that, yes I would, because if the Reds were to trade a young gun like Cueto, Bailey or Volquez for Alex Rios, we would still have two young, potential elite pitchers while adding a potentially elite, right handed hitting, speedy centerfielder that we as Reds fans would crave. I bring up the Jays because there was a rumor going around the Winter Meetings that they had offered Alex Rios to the Giants for Tim Lincecum. Obviously, Bailey, Volquez and Cueto aren't considered on the same echelon as Lincecum, but the Giants turned down that trade for a reason.

If the Reds traded for Rios, it would give the Reds a 2008 line-up of

Rios
Dunn
Phillips
Griffey
EdE
Votto
Gonzalez
Ross
Pitcher

which in itself helps to boost the line-up and fill a major void at the beginning of the line-up.

But, the thing I figured out is it gives Krivsky some lee-way heading into 2009. Krivsky isn't forced to over pay for Dunn (even though I don't think that's possible, but that's a whole other thread) and he isn't forced to retain Griffey for 2009 if they can't get Dunn to commit long-term and he doesn't like the other options for RF.

It could give the Reds a potential out field of Dunn-Rios-Bruce in 2009 and they don't have to count on Stubbs chance to progress after an ugly first half to 2007.

I think I would do this trade in a heart beat. Give yourself another right handed bat and kill a few birds with one stone.

So, the question I want you to vote on is, would you trade Cueto, Bailey OR Volquez for Alex Rios

[smoke6]

No, because we need pitchers not outfielders.

[GoReds33]

Sorry Jim Bowden, we don't need more outfielders. I do wish we did need outfielders though. It would be cool to have Rios in the lineup, he has tremendous pure power. Besides, they wouldn't take just Cueto.

[kbrake]

Rios for Volquez???? You would have to be out of your mind to pass on that.

[757690]

Rios is not a great leadoff hitter. He is more of a middle lineup guy. He has a career .338 OBP, and a high of .358 last year. If I am going to trade one of the top three pitching prospects for a lead off hitter, he needs to have close to a .400 OBP.

The Reds do need a RH bat however, but not if EE and Phillips both reach their potential. There is a better use for one of those three.

[Bigredfan#1]

Are you sure he can play CF, Wells is the Jay's CFer.

[AmarilloRed]

I would do it for Edison Volquez. You can see an outfield of Dunn and Bruce in 2009, but that will still lead us one starting outfielder short. Alex Rios hade some pop, hits for a good average, and would give us better defense than Ken Griffey Jr.

[REDblooded]

are you guys kidding? Rios for Cueto is a no-brainer.

[AmarilloRed]

are you guys kidding? Rios for Cueto is a no-brainer.

Rios is a solid outfielder, but Cueto seems to be a top of the rotation starter. I would hesitate to make that trade.

[Edd Roush]

Rios is a solid outfielder, but Cueto seems to be a top of the rotation starter. I would hesitate to make that trade.

Some very good points being made in this thread. The thing about a Rios for Cueto trade is, that it would be a trade of a guy who has proven something in the bigs for a guy who hasn't proven anything.

I sort of like how Krivsky is stockpiling these arms, but if we can't re-up Dunn for '09 and beyond, we could be lacking a lot of offense. Rios seems to be a guy who could lead-off while young and be moved down in the order if that's how his bat progressed.

I didn't realize how low his OBP was for his major league career. I suppose he wouldn't be the prototypical lead-off man that I thought he was, but I just can't see Dusty leading off Votto like he probably should.

[UPRedsFan]

Absolutely not. If Krivsky would have traded Hamilton for Rios people would be upset about that because of Hamilton's potential. No way he'll turn around and trade one of the big 3 pitchers for Rios. Like someone else said, we need pitching not outfielders.

[Dracodave]

If I was Toronto I do this in heartbeat, turn around and laugh. Stockpile young arms for now, wait to see who pans out and how well they do, then build the offense you know you can build. It's alot harder to build a pitching staff than a batting line up..expecially if you are Cincinnati.

[ChatterRed]

I would do it.

I'm looking ahead when KGJ is gone. I am also concerned with being predominantly lefthanded. Rios would instantly improve the OF defense; give us another solid RH bat (average); give us another solid RH bat (power); we would have control of him for another 2 years.

An outfield of Dunn (LF), Bruce (CF) and Rios (RF) would be very, very solid, if Bruce turns out to be everything he's hyped to be. And then you could look at the infield and see another solid lineup overall with EE, Gonzalez, Phillips, Votto, Keppinger (sub)..........I see alot of potential in that lineup.

If you traded for Rios, Bruce stays in the minors this season until KGJ gets injured.

[AmarilloRed]

Some very good points being made in this thread. The thing about a Rios for Cueto trade is, that it would be a trade of a guy who has proven something in the bigs for a guy who hasn't proven anything.

I sort of like how Krivsky is stockpiling these arms, but if we can't re-up Dunn for '09 and beyond, we could be lacking a lot of offense. Rios seems to be a guy who could lead-off while young and be moved down in the order if that's how his bat progressed.

I didn't realize how low his OBP was for his major league career. I suppose he wouldn't be the prototypical lead-off man that I thought he was, but I just can't see Dusty leading off Votto like he probably should.

You can't prove anything if you haven't been in the bigs. Cueto has been successful at every minor league level he has pitched at, and it is a lot hard to find a top pitching prospect than it is an outfielder. Cueto may not end up being an ace pitcher, but we could find a Rios in our own minor league system.

[REDblooded]

Absolutely not. If Krivsky would have traded Hamilton for Rios people would be upset about that because of Hamilton's potential. No way he'll turn around and trade one of the big 3 pitchers for Rios. Like someone else said, we need pitching not outfielders.

umm. no. If Krivsky would've traded one of our many LH bats for an equal RH bat, I don't think there would've been an outcry at all.....at least from baseball fans with a bit of sense.

[kbrake]

Saying Hamilton is equal to Rios is beyond laughable. Alex Rios will dominate the numbers Josh Hamilton puts up in 08.

[AmarilloRed]

Saying Hamilton is equal to Rios is beyond laughable. Alex Rios will dominate the numbers Josh Hamilton puts up in 08.

Let's take a look at it: Hamilton had a.292 BA,19 hr, 47 RBI, a .368 OBP, and a .554 slg. last year in 90 games.

Rios had a .297 BA, 24 hr, 85 rbi a .354 OBP, and a .498 slg. last year in 161 games.

I think if Hamilton can stay healthy through 160 games, he will at the very least be the equal of Rios and perhaps better.

[kbrake]

You can keep saying IF and I will keep looking at numbers. Rios is getting better and better every year. Hamilton is nothing but an IF. I have no doubt every GM in baseball would take Rios over Hamilton.

[AmarilloRed]

We will all see if you are right next year. A 162 game season by Hamilton will blow away Rios' numbers.

[PickOff]

I would do it.

I'm looking ahead when KGJ is gone. I am also concerned with being predominantly lefthanded. Rios would instantly improve the OF defense; give us another solid RH bat (average); give us another solid RH bat (power); we would have control of him for another 2 years.


I agree. The Reds need to replace Griffey and Rios would be a steal. He is locked up through 2010 (arb eligible in '10), so that is three years of a proven big leaguer who will be a star in this league. His being RH is very important, and the Reds need improved defense. Hopefully they could lock him up for longer.

I don't see him as a lead off hitter, though. He could become one with increased patience, but his OBP is not so great. Given the lineup, though, perhaps he would be given a chance there. Not much speed either.

Two major deficiencies solved for the Reds in the short term with a deal like this: CF with improved defense, and RH pop and average.

I don't think that the Jays would go for a straight up deal, however, but you never know.

[Newman4]

No, not for one of the three. But, I do like Rios because the hits LHP well. I would try to pry AJ Burnett in any trade for Rios. In fact, on another board I proposed Dunn/Gonzalez for Rios/Burnett.

[Edd Roush]

You can't prove anything if you haven't been in the bigs. Cueto has been successful at every minor league level he has pitched at, and it is a lot hard to find a top pitching prospect than it is an outfielder. Cueto may not end up being an ace pitcher, but we could find a Rios in our own minor league system.

Yes, but the fact is outside of Drew Stubbs and obviously Jay Bruce, the Reds have very little outfield talent in the upper minor leagues. Furthermore, the free agent market at this point in time is out of control and this includes outfielders.

Jose Guillen 3 years, 36 million. Rios to the Reds makes sense. The Reds don't need to make the move, but it makes us more flexible moving into the future. Also, the Reds could definately use another right-handed bat.

However, after seeing Rios' minor league and major league OBP numbers, I don't know if he takes enough walks to be a lead-off man. I still think I'd trade any one of Bailey, Volquez or Cueto for him, though.

[Stephenk29]

Ridiculous, that trade would be a steal and a half. There are hundreds of posts on here complaining about how our CF could be Norris Hopper. You're not going to trade a pitching prospect (when we have two others we're very high on) for an ALL-STAR OF who is very young himself???????????

I highly doubt the Blue Jays would run away laughing.

It would take much more than Johnny Cueto to get Alex Rios anyway.

[AmarilloRed]

We clearly are going to need outfield help in the future. Griffey will be in an option year in 2009, and Adam Dunn is a free agent next year. There is no guarantee that either Dunn or Griffey will be back in 2009. Trading Hamilton has clearly hurt our starting outfielder depth, and Jay Bruce can not start 3 outfield positions. Alex Rios is clearly a very talented, young outfielder with an awful lot of promise. He can steal a base, has some power, is a right-handed bat, and hits for a good average. It might be a trade to pursue next year, but I would like some time to see how all 3 pitching prospect perform at the major league level before I trade any of them for Alex Rios.

[Edd Roush]

We clearly are going to need outfield help in the future. Griffey will be in an option year in 2009, and Adam Dunn is a free agent next year. There is no guarantee that either Dunn or Griffey will be back in 2009. Trading Hamilton has clearly hurt our starting outfielder depth, and Jay Bruce can not start 3 outfield positions. Alex Rios is clearly a very talented, young outfielder with an awful lot of promise. He can steal a base, has some power, is a right-handed bat, and hits for a good average. It might be a trade to pursue next year, but I would like some time to see how all 3 pitching prospect perform at the major league level before I trade any of them for Alex Rios.

Sounds great, but who starts in centefield this year?

[AmarilloRed]

Deep with outfielders, including top prospect Jay Bruce, the Reds also have Ryan Freel, Norris Hopper and Chris Dickerson who can play center field. Krivsky called the starting center field spot "open for competition."

There's your answer.:D

[Edd Roush]

Haha, so out of that group who do you start? The Reds AAA manager said that Bruce isn't ready for the bigs and having only 253 at-bats above A ball isn't exactly a recipe for success. Furthermore, Freel and Hopper can't take a walk and Dickerson can't hit. As I stated earlier, I guess I am content with Freel starting the game in center, but certainly Rios is a better option.

[AmarilloRed]

I expect Freel and Hopper will start in a platoon(unless Bruce is absolutely dominating in spring training) until Bruce is ready about mid-season. Dickerson might be on the roster for defensive depth, but I don't expect him to start. A long shot would be signing Mike Cameron to a deal, but he seems to want a multi-year deal, and I don't know if the Reds would do that.

[Edd Roush]

Why would we platoon two righties? I think I would accept going with the hot bat betwen Hopper and Freel, but I only want Bruce up in the bigs, if he can continue to OPS around .900 in AAA for 200 more at bats.

As for Cameron, I hope Wayne stays far away. His legs have aged and his bat isn't exponentially better than Hopper and Freel.

[Stephenk29]

Deep with outfielders, including top prospect Jay Bruce, the Reds also have Ryan Freel, Norris Hopper and Chris Dickerson who can play center field. Krivsky called the starting center field spot "open for competition."


Deep with outfielders? I don't know if I can call Freel, Hopper and Dickerson depth, more like bodies. We probably won't see Bruce till '09. As far as I'm concerned there's a hole in Center. If we can't resign Dunn and Griffey walks (worst case scenario) who do you have as your OF? Freel, Hopper, Dickerson, and Bruce? Or if we can keep one of those two and IF this trade did happen it would look more like Dunn, Rios, Bruce in '09. Much better.

[AmarilloRed]

I really do think Krivsky considers it open for competition. I have always worried about the future possibility of being short on starting outfielders(and posted on it quite frequently), but no one else seemed to worry about it until the Hamilton trade. The Reds really must make a priority out of re-signing Adam Dunn to a LTC now, or they will have 2 starting outfield spots to fill and not just one.

[757690]

We will see Bruce in 08, and there is a good chance he will be on the big league roster opening day. History is against rushing 20 year old pitchers, but not so with 21 year old outfielders. Mantle, Williams, Mays, Aaron, Musial and so many more started at 21 or younger. I keep saying, depending on how he does in spring training, Bruce should start the season platooning with either Hopper or Freel until he establishes himself.

I do like Rios, a lot, but I see no reason to expend valuable resources in getting him. Outfielders are so much easier to acquire than pitchers, and The Reds can contend without him.

[Edd Roush]

We will see Bruce in 08, and there is a good chance he will be on the big league roster opening day. History is against rushing 20 year old pitchers, but not so with 21 year old outfielders. Mantle, Williams, Mays, Aaron, Musial and so many more started at 21 or younger. I keep saying, depending on how he does in spring training, Bruce should start the season platooning with either Hopper or Freel until he establishes himself.

I do like Rios, a lot, but I see no reason to expend valuable resources in getting him. Outfielders are so much easier to acquire than pitchers, and The Reds can contend without him.

I keep on going back and forth about what I would do in Krivsky's shoes considering the outfield problem and Jay Bruce could make his call for 2008 very easy by going all Ted Williams at the plate in spring training. But 2009 still won't be easy, but as long as one of young arms doesn't need Tommy John, there value should still be high enough to bring in an outfielder in 2009 if need be.

[Betterread]

Very intriguing trade idea, ER. Rios is a good OF (I thought he was a RF?)but his offensive skill set is not that of a leadoff hitter. I would think about the trade but not give up Cueto straight-up for him.

[Stephenk29]

To look at it from a different perspective Rios has very similar stats to Hamilton last year, except Rios played about everyday. Rios' OBP was a little lower though. Hamilton was traded for a top pitching prospect. This would essentially be the same kind of trade. Rios would answer a void in the OF and provide a power right handed bat. Rios did play 22 games last year in Center when Wells got hurt. The Reds would still have Bailey, Maloney, Volquez in the minors. It really comes down to Hamilton for Rios almost.

[kbrake]

Its not quite that easy cause I highly doubt the Jays would take only Cueto for Rios. We would have to add something to it.

[cincyredsone]

Alex Rios is a good player. No question about that. But, I would not trade any of the reds young pitching prospects for him. Why? because, Jay Bruce will be the reds starting center fielder. Maybe, not on opening day but, at some point during the season he will be.

[*BaseClogger*]

Why would the Blue Jays trade Rios for a pitcher?
1. The Jays have an excess of starting pitching, as proven by their decision to not offer Josh Towers a contract.
2. The Jays were 10th in the AL in Runs. They NEED offense...

[Newman4]

Anyone think the Jays would consider Dunn/Gonzalez + for Rios/Burnett? Jays are heavily RH while the Reds are heavy LH.

[AmarilloRed]

I am still trying to figure out why the Blue Jays would consider trading Rios. Not only were they 10th in runs, they were 24th in BA. Their starting pitching is pretty good, although there is still a chance they might lose Burnett to free agency in 2009. Still, Rios is an awfully high price to pay to get another starting pitcher.

[*BaseClogger*]

I am still trying to figure out why the Blue Jays would consider trading Rios. Not only were they 10th in runs, they were 24th in BA. Their starting pitching is pretty good, although there is still a chance they might lose Burnett to free agency in 2009. Still, Rios is an awfully high price to pay to get another starting pitcher.

Yes, and they have a lot of young starting pitchers... so why would they trade for one?

[Stephenk29]

They won't trade Rios.

Most of us are just entertaining the idea I believe.

[Edd Roush]

I am still trying to figure out why the Blue Jays would consider trading Rios. Not only were they 10th in runs, they were 24th in BA. Their starting pitching is pretty good, although there is still a chance they might lose Burnett to free agency in 2009. Still, Rios is an awfully high price to pay to get another starting pitcher.


I threw out Rios as a potential target because during the search for Bedard, rumors surfaced that the Jays had offered the Giants Rios for Lincecum. So as we Reds fans were trying to value our boys Cueto and Bailey, I got to wondering if Rios would fit with our outfield situation.

I'm personally warming up to the idea of having Freel play center, but I have heard there are concerns about the deteroriation of his defensive abilities. If some one has some thing on this, I would really enjoy reading it.

[Jim]

Why would we trade Hamilton, who has a lot of similarities to Rios, for a young SP and then trade a diff young SP for Rios? Right now, the Reds have options in the OF and a lot of questions marks in the rotation. Until we have the rotation solidified and lose either Dunn or Jr., I don't see a trade like this. I agree that we do not have a great option for lead-off, but Rios is more of a middle line-up guy anyhow.

[SMcGavin]

Rios has played RF his whole career, with a few games here and there in CF. As others have said he's also not really a leadoff hitter. I think that neither the Reds or Blue Jays would make this trade. Rios probably has higher value around the league than Cueto, but unless he can play good defense in CF it doesn't make a lot of sense for the Reds.

I will say that this trade would make a lot more sense next season, assuming we don't pick up Griffey's option. If Rios can play CF, and I have no idea if he can, his right handed bat would look great between Dunn and Bruce (in both the outfield and lineup).