Decision time with Dunn

[Newman4]

Anyone else feel like the Reds need to make an extension offer to Dunn prior to the season?

If he accepts - you know he'll be part of your team for the next few years and move on to finding complimentary pieces to build around him.

If he will not accept - ask him where he wants to go (thus waiving the no trade clause) and he becomes another chip to trade for that needed starting pitcher.

Of course, he could play out the season and go FA with the Reds receiving draft pick compensation.

Personally, I think they should've done this prior to trading Hamilton.

[HokieRed]

Now that Wayner has moved Hamilton, who would perhaps have been the closest thing to Dunn-replacement at a relatively cheap five years, seems like we don't have much choice but to offer Dunn a LTC. An option to acquiring Volquez would have been to keep Hamilton, trade Dunn or let him walk, then use his salary to buy pitching. Makes Volquez a potentially very expensive option. Even though I like having Volquez, this could be another deal that blows up big time in Wayne's face, revealing again his tendency to way overpay.

[roby]

Now that Wayner has moved Hamilton, who would perhaps have been the closest thing to Dunn-replacement at a relatively cheap five years, seems like we don't have much choice but to offer Dunn a LTC. An option to acquiring Volquez would have been to keep Hamilton, trade Dunn or let him walk, then use his salary to buy pitching. Makes Volquez a potentially very expensive option. Even though I like having Volquez, this could be another deal that blows up big time in Wayne's face, revealing again his tendency to way overpay.

Trade Dunn and pick up Alex Rios...not necessarily in the same deal. :thumbup:

[Nasty_Boy]

Why not sign Dunn and pick up Rios?

[BLEEDS]

I would like to agree with you, and I am a HUGE fan of Dunn.

However, I think there is MORE work to be done by WK before he considers that.

IF we can get another top-o-the-order SP - Bedard, Blanton, etc... - then I think he makes Dunn the next priority.

However, if we "only" go with an OLDER/Risky FA on a 1/2 year deal, then I think he might want to wait and see for next year. Having the flexibility to just let Dunn's Salary come off the books and spend it on FA 2009 Pitchers, which will be by all accounts MUCH better a pool to swim in.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[rotnoid]

I would like to agree with you, and I am a HUGE fan of Dunn.

However, I think there is MORE work to be done by WK before he considers that.

IF we can get another top-o-the-order SP - Bedard, Blanton, etc... - then I think he makes Dunn the next priority.

However, if we "only" go with an OLDER/Risky FA on a 1/2 year deal, then I think he might want to wait and see for next year. Having the flexibility to just let Dunn's Salary come off the books and spend it on FA 2009 Pitchers, which will be by all accounts MUCH better a pool to swim in.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Excellent point. Once some of the top FA starters start to sign LTCs to stay put or move one (Santana, Sabathia for example) the move to sign or not sign Dunn becomes an easier choice to make. There are 15-18 million reasons a year why this shouldn't be a rush job. Dunner seems to understand it's a business and I doubt that waiting will have any negative impact on the Reds' ability to sign him later.

[Nasty_Boy]

I'm really nervous on what is going to happen with the Dunn situation. I think its vital that Reds get him signed to a LTC, but if they don't how much of a loss will they take on him? If he hasn't signed before the season starts, its very important that the Reds are either in the thick of the race come June or completely out of it. I would hate to see the Reds hang on to Dunn until the end of the season and get nothing but draft picks out him, because I don't think the Reds have a chance if he goes to free agency. Krivsky has made some bold moves, but this is a decision that could effect the Reds for a few years.

[*BaseClogger*]

I would like to agree with you, and I am a HUGE fan of Dunn.

However, I think there is MORE work to be done by WK before he considers that.

IF we can get another top-o-the-order SP - Bedard, Blanton, etc... - then I think he makes Dunn the next priority.

However, if we "only" go with an OLDER/Risky FA on a 1/2 year deal, then I think he might want to wait and see for next year. Having the flexibility to just let Dunn's Salary come off the books and spend it on FA 2009 Pitchers, which will be by all accounts MUCH better a pool to swim in.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Somebody has to play the outfield in 2009, and if we do indeed acquire a Bedard/Blanton I don't think there will be much need for a FA starting pitcher... With Griffey's money coming off the books and BCast's willingness to spend, I don't see why we couldn't resign Dunn AND bring in a FA pitcher. That would be a better allocation of resources than trading a bunch of young players for Bedard/Blanton and resigning Dunn IMO...

[*BaseClogger*]

One thing to keep in mind is that Dunn is the type of player with "old player" skills that generally do not age well and deteriorate quickly...

[Degenerate39]

Dunn needs to be signed long term period.

[BLEEDS]

Somebody has to play the outfield in 2009, and if we do indeed acquire a Bedard/Blanton I don't think there will be much need for a FA starting pitcher... With Griffey's money coming off the books and BCast's willingness to spend, I don't see why we couldn't resign Dunn AND bring in a FA pitcher. That would be a better allocation of resources than trading a bunch of young players for Bedard/Blanton and resigning Dunn IMO...

I lost you after the bold part, seems you're contradicting yourself.

Care to re-state?

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[*BaseClogger*]

I lost you after the bold part, seems you're contradicting yourself.

Care to re-state?

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Sure.

Seeing as I put the odds that all we do is sign an aging FA pitcher this year at 95%, I disagree with you that we should not resign Dunn and use the money on a FA pitcher. I'll assume that aging FA pitcher will be on a one-year contract, and therefore coming off the books with Griffey. In that case, I would prefer to see the Reds resign Dunn AND sign a 2009 FA pitcher because I think BCast is willing to spend the money...

Edit- the way I read it you gave us two paths:
1. trade for Bedard/Blanton and resign Dunn
2. Sign aging FA pitcher in 2008 and let Dunn walk, spending his money on 2009 FA pitcher
I created an additional alternative...

[BLEEDS]

Sure.

Seeing as I put the odds that all we do is sign an aging FA pitcher this year at 95%, I disagree with you that we should not resign Dunn and use the money on a FA pitcher. I'll assume that aging FA pitcher will be on a one-year contract, and therefore coming off the books with Griffey. In that case, I would prefer to see the Reds resign Dunn AND sign a 2009 FA pitcher because I think BCast is willing to spend the money...

Edit- the way I read it you gave us two paths:
1. trade for Bedard/Blanton and resign Dunn
2. Sign aging FA pitcher in 2008 and let Dunn walk, spending his money on 2009 FA pitcher
I created an additional alternative...

First off, I don't disagree with your assessment, I just think WK does. I don't agree with it, but it's my guess.

I think he wants the FLEXIBILITY of just saying "BYE" to Dunn - if he doesn't get a #1/#2 Starter this year - through trade - because his only option will be to $PEND LOT$ OF CA$H to do it in 2009 FA.
He could still do both, but my bet is that he WON'T extend him if we don't pick up that starter this year.

Also, the Griffey money is moot - it's already earmarked for the Raises due people like Harang and Arroyo.
However, I do agree that we COULD sign a SP regardless, BUT it would be a HUGE increase in Payroll - probably up to $95M.

Again, I think we can sustain that, especially if we are a playoff-caliber team, because our fan base CAN support that payroll and translate it to Profit for the Owners.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[BLEEDS]

One thing to keep in mind is that Dunn is the type of player with "old player" skills that generally do not age well and deteriorate quickly...

I agree, that's why I think they will discuss him moving to 1B along with any LTC discussions. Otherwise, he's probably headed for the AL.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[Brian]

I'm fine with Dunn getting a LTC. You need that type of guy in the lineup. With Griffey nearing the end and Hamilton dealt, there's going to be a power void. As much crap as he gets here and on talk radio, he's still not exactly an easy guy to replace.

[*BaseClogger*]

Griffey won't be the only guy coming off of payroll: you'll also have Hatteberg, Valentin, Ross, Weathers, Stanton (hopefully), and Gonzalez will be in the last year of his contract. The guys coming off adds up to around $9 million according to my calculations :dancingco...

[BLEEDS]

Griffey won't be the only guy coming off of payroll: you'll also have Hatteberg, Valentin, Ross, Weathers, Stanton (hopefully), and Gonzalez will be in the last year of his contract. The guys coming off adds up to around $9 million according to my calculations :dancingco...

I hear ya. I have my calculations too - I'm sure you've seen them.

The Arbitration numbers for BP, EE and Belisle will more than eat up the "paltry" sums of the 5 guys you noted combined.

The 2009 payroll is set to be the same as the 2008 payroll - that's counting Dunn $15M per - and with Min Contracts for RP replacement for Weathers and others...

you also have to consider the $4M buyout for Griffey, which even though not on the Payroll, is definitely in consideration for Budgeting.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[*BaseClogger*]

What about what Blanton or Bedard will get in arbitration?

[BLEEDS]

What about what Blanton or Bedard will get in arbitration?

Exactly. I'm just saying "As-Is"... assuming Griffey's buy-out and the other FA"s walking:

2008
0.45 Votto
4 BP
4.625 Gonzo
0.45 EE
13 Dunn
3 Freel
12 Griff
2.525 Ross

1.3 Valentin
1.8 Hatt
0.45 Kepp
0.45 Hopper
0.45 Bruce ??

6.5 Harang
3.95 Arroyo
0.45 Volquez
2 Belisle
0.45 TBD

8.5 Cordero
3.5 Weathers
3 Stanton
0.925 Coffey
0.45 Burton
0.45 Bray
0.45 Majewski

75.125 TOT

2009
0.45 Votto
5 BP
5.375 Gonzo
3 EE
15 Dunn
4 Freel
0.45 Jay Bruce
0.45 Rookie?

0.45 Rookie?
0.45 Rookie?
0.45 Kepp
0.45 Hopper
0.45 Rookie?

11 Harang
9.5 Arroyo
0.45 Volquez
2 Belisle
0.45 TBD

12 Cordero
0.45 Rookie?
0.45 Rookie?
1 Coffey
0.45 Burton
1 Bray
0.45 Rookie?

75.175 TOT


Can't see the color/shading, but BP & Belisle 2008 and 2009 are just WAG's at Arb, EE and Bray for 2009, and all replacements assumed to be Min Salaries - which is a Big Stretch.

So, as you can see, there's no extra money by losing the guys you mentioned + Griff - IF we extend Dunn @$15M - unless you dramatically increase Payroll. (Which I abdicate).

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[*BaseClogger*]

You're right. There is no money currently, I guess I just expect tha payroll to increase because of a FA acquisition (such as Lieber for $6 million) that will already bring it up halfway to what we would need to sign Derek Lowe...

[BLEEDS]

You're right. There is no money currently, I guess I just expect tha payroll to increase because of a FA acquisition (such as Lieber for $6 million) that will already bring it up halfway to what we would need to sign Derek Lowe...

I like the way you think!!!

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[FlightRick]

Something that bears emphasizing: not all "LTCs" are created equal. Specifically, the "LT-ness" of them.

If the Reds sign Dunn to a 3-year extension (through 2011), they could reasonably tell themselves they'd just solidified LF. But if the "LT" is more like 4 or 5 years, then -- for the sake of the organization -- they'd by christ better be considering that a signing of a 1B. On the grounds that I really think Dunn "is what he is" (to borrow the much-loathed observation by Marty) and his bat will continue to be about the same for many years to come. Unless we're planning a re-location to the AL, I figure thinking ahead and having a spot for Dunn on the field is a pretty important consideration.

I'd love to go 3 yrs. and around $45-50m with Dunn, but I'm not entirely sure his camp isn't thinking more of that 4- or 5-year deal. Thus, you end up with a much more fluid environment in which you have to pay attention to a ton of different dynamics before deciding what to do. You gotta feel out Dunn in terms of his preferences, you gotta stall negotiations a bit to see what Votto brings to the table, if you decide to go 4- or 5-years with Dunn, you need to seriously start exploring how to maximize return on trading Votto, and if all else fails, figure out if you can get more for "renting" Dunn to another team for 3 months than you would if you took the draft pick compensation. Very dicey situation.

Putting it all together, the only decision I'm prepared to make right now is that making a decision right now might be the exact WRONG time to make a decision, unless Dunn's willing to take the aforementioned 3-year deal.

Also: it's worth noting that the Free Agent field (especially among corner outfielders) is gonna be lots stronger next year than it was this year. That should play into the mix, as well, since there is absolutely no doubt in my mind that the Reds will acquire Vlad Guerrero to replace Junior in RF. None.

OK, some.

OK, lots.

OK, I'm dreaming. But there really is good depth in next year's FA class (or this All-Star Break's "rental" class), which is another reason why I don't think it's time to go into panic mode with Dunn negotiations. Yet.


Rick

[Mr.MojoRisin]

I think it's something they need to consider. Dunn is a good player, he comes through alot, and he's a fan favorite which does count for alot right now.

[smoke6]

I think it's something they need to consider. Dunn is a good player, he comes through alot, and he's a fan favorite which does count for alot right now.

I have to disagree. AD had a better year last year, but he is more of the problem than the cure IMO. Sure he hits 40-50 one-run bombs a year, but that's not effective baseball. I don't have the exact numbers in front of me, but hasn't he been consistantly crappy with RISP?

Good baseball players play fundamentally sound baseball, offensively & defensively (we all know about AD's defense).

In the long run, guys LIKE Freel and Hopper will produce more runs and win morw ballgames.

[*BaseClogger*]

In the long run, guys LIKE Freel and Hopper will produce more runs and win morw ballgames.

No... No they don't...

[Oxilon]

Good baseball players play fundamentally sound baseball, offensively & defensively (we all know about AD's defense).

In the long run, guys LIKE Freel and Hopper will produce more runs and win morw ballgames.

:bash:

[Degenerate39]

I have to disagree. AD had a better year last year, but he is more of the problem than the cure IMO. Sure he hits 40-50 one-run bombs a year, but that's not effective baseball. I don't have the exact numbers in front of me, but hasn't he been consistantly crappy with RISP?

Good baseball players play fundamentally sound baseball, offensively & defensively (we all know about AD's defense).

In the long run, guys LIKE Freel and Hopper will produce more runs and win morw ballgames.

Dunn's defense has improved last season and since he'll have a healthy knee this upcoming season then chances are he'll continue to improve. You don't need a gold glover at every single position. And when Griffey is gone that'll help out Dunn even more in the outfield since instead of two bad defensive players there will be only one.

I disagree about Freel and Hopper helping out more than Dunn. First of all Freel's balls to the wall style of play, while fun to watch, is pretty dangerous for him and the other outfielders (or infielders pending on where he is playing). And Hopper had a good showing last year but how much longer until pitchers and infielders start to adjust to his bunting style.

Dunn is a proven commodity you know what you're going to get when you have him the field. 40 home runs, 100 RBI's, 100 runs, 100 walks and the large number of strikeouts. While with Freel you have a guy who could is a dive away from the DL. Hopper isn't proven yet, at least to me, when he has a full season of good numbers then I'll say hes the real deal but until then I say he's nothing more than a 4th or 5th outfielder and a pinch hitter.

And finally Dunn's RISP numbers might not be good but does it really matter that much? He's getting the job done with his bat. Hitting 40 homers with 100+ RBIs last year.

[smoke6]

No... No they don't...

I think everybody is misunderstanding what I meant. I meant guys whoplay the game LIKE them. I don't mean Freel and Hopper.

[smoke6]

Dunn's defense has improved last season and since he'll have a healthy knee this upcoming season then chances are he'll continue to improve. You don't need a gold glover at every single position. And when Griffey is gone that'll help out Dunn even more in the outfield since instead of two bad defensive players there will be only one.

I disagree about Freel and Hopper helping out more than Dunn. First of all Freel's balls to the wall style of play, while fun to watch, is pretty dangerous for him and the other outfielders (or infielders pending on where he is playing). And Hopper had a good showing last year but how much longer until pitchers and infielders start to adjust to his bunting style.

Dunn is a proven commodity you know what you're going to get when you have him the field. 40 home runs, 100 RBI's, 100 runs, 100 walks and the large number of strikeouts. While with Freel you have a guy who could is a dive away from the DL. Hopper isn't proven yet, at least to me, when he has a full season of good numbers then I'll say hes the real deal but until then I say he's nothing more than a 4th or 5th outfielder and a pinch hitter.

And finally Dunn's RISP numbers might not be good but does it really matter that much? He's getting the job done with his bat. Hitting 40 homers with 100+ RBIs last year.

His healthy knee won't improve his arm.:D

[Newman4]

WWBBD? (What Would Billy Beane Do?)

[Nasty_Boy]

Dunn is Beane's type of player.

And don't look at BA with RISP... look at the OBP. There is no way in the world that a team of Freel and Hopper's win more games than Dunn. It just doesn't work that way.

[Newman4]

Personally, I think Beane would've already traded Dunn and kept Hamilton.

[smoke6]

:deleted:

[AmarilloRed]

We are going to give Adam Dunn a LTC. Bob Castellini seems to feel it is pretty important, so I expect he has let Krivsky know to get it done. I believe Dunn and Krivsky are simply negotiating over the exact terms of the deal. If we have Bailey, Cueto, Vasquez, (and possibly even Belisle) on the cheap for the next 5-6 years, we will have the money to sign Dunn to a LTC. I really wish people would let the "Dunn to first base" talk die. Votto is not going to be traded, and Dunn is not going to agree to play first base. Dunn is going to be in LF unless he is traded to an AL team, and even then he might not agree to be a DH.

[Degenerate39]

His healthy knee won't improve his arm.:D

You complain about Dunn's arm but Hopper doesn't even have an arm. So I guess that still makes Hopper better

[muethibp]

I think everybody is misunderstanding what I meant. I meant guys whoplay the game LIKE them. I don't mean Freel and Hopper.

:confused::eek::rolleyes:

Marty, is that you?

[Nasty_Boy]

Personally, I think Beane would've already traded Dunn and kept Hamilton.


I agree... But Dunn is the high OBP, high runs score, high BB kinda of player that Beane likes. I also think Billy would do things differently if he had an owner committed like Castellini seems to be.

[gedred69]

I like the way you think!!!

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Sounds OKay, but seems to me it's more like "dream".

[*BaseClogger*]

I think everybody is misunderstanding what I meant. I meant guys whoplay the game LIKE them. I don't mean Freel and Hopper.

Juan Pierre? No, those kind of players aren't more valueable...

[*BaseClogger*]

I really wish people would let the "Dunn to first base" talk die. Votto is not going to be traded, and Dunn is not going to agree to play first base. Dunn is going to be in LF unless he is traded to an AL team, and even then he might not agree to be a DH.

:eek:... ;)

I'm with you on that one Amarillo...

[*BaseClogger*]

Dunn is Beane's type of player.

And don't look at BA with RISP... look at the OBP. There is no way in the world that a team of Freel and Hopper's win more games than Dunn. It just doesn't work that way.


I agree... But Dunn is the high OBP, high runs score, high BB kinda of player that Beane likes. I also think Billy would do things differently if he had an owner committed like Castellini seems to be.


My definition of a "Moneyball" player is much different than the common usage. I don't see it as having anything to do with walks or on-base percentage or really any statistic. To me that really misses the point. A "Moneyball" player is an undervalued player for any reason whatsoever. So, yes, we still look for undervalued players. However, there isn't a universal scale of value in baseball, as no player holds precisely the same value for all 30 clubs. Often times "undervalued" simply means finding players who may have more value for us than they would for the player's current team. It doesn't imply that the current team has somehow overlooked the value of the player. That other team has a different composition of personnel and under that composition the player doesn't have as much value as he would have in our composition. We're all trying to manage portfolios of players that need to be somewhat balanced across various attributes as well as between short-term and long-term goals.
Paul DePodesta

[*BaseClogger*]

Sounds OKay, but seems to me it's more like "dream".

Signing Jon Lieber this offseason and then Derek Lowe the next is a "dream"!?!?

[indyred]

Why would Dunn sign a 3 year deal? He will get offers for 5-6 years at over a 100 million on the open market. Free Agent deals just keep getting bigger. The question is going to be do the Reds have 100-120 million dollars laying around to sign Dunn. I like Dunn, but he is not going to be worth the contract he gets. Other big market teams can afford paying him this and not strap themselevs.

[smoke6]

You complain about Dunn's arm but Hopper doesn't even have an arm. So I guess that still makes Hopper better

Defensively yes. Have you ever seen Dunn stay back on the ball and run through it? I haven't, but I have seen Hopper do it. That can make a lot of a difference.

[Newman4]

Why would Dunn sign a 3 year deal? He will get offers for 5-6 years at over a 100 million on the open market. Free Agent deals just keep getting bigger. The question is going to be do the Reds have 100-120 million dollars laying around to sign Dunn. I like Dunn, but he is not going to be worth the contract he gets. Other big market teams can afford paying him this and not strap themselevs.

I agree. Probably at the least 5yr/90 million.

[redsfanmia]

WWBBD? (What Would Billy Beane Do?)

How many World Series titles has Beane won? He is a good gm but i just dont understand his Mr. Perfect reputation.

[Degenerate39]

Defensively yes. Have you ever seen Dunn stay back on the ball and run through it? I haven't, but I have seen Hopper do it. That can make a lot of a difference.

Dunn's bat can make a lot of difference too. But let's have Hopper bunt every other at-bat.