From ORG: Lohse possibly looking for 1 year deal

[SMcGavin]

Apparently nobody wants to give Kyle Lohse a long-term big money deal, so he's considering going with a one year contract to establish his value. A post on the ORG said the Reds are rumored to be interested.

So the question is - are you interested in a one year deal for Lohse? The estimate on the dollars is $8M (just an estimate). Personally, I would absolutely do this deal. Let Bailey and Cueto establish themselves in AAA for a few months and be injury insurance, let Affeldt strengthen the bullpen. If we stink, we can always trade Lohse for a prospect at the deadline like we did last year and call up one of Bailey/Cueto. Thoughts?

[BEETTLEBUG]

Yes I'm for Lohse but I'm for Afeldt in rotaion also . They need to give a shot.

[Bip Roberts]

Strong no from me

[SMcGavin]

Yes I'm for Lohse but I'm for Afeldt in rotaion also . They need to give a shot.

So none of the kids? Do you start Volquez, Bailey, and Cueto all in AAA, or one of them in the MLB bullpen?

[scounts22]

IMO, signing Loshe to a one year deal wouldn't be a horrible option. Obviously there are several questions regarding the rotation and having him would be a bit of insurance. I would love to see the combination of Belisle, Bailey, Volquez, and Cueto have great springs, but if they don't, at least Loshe could fill in. He had some really great moments last year, but also some really really bad ones. If the youngins do step up, could he be a middle reliever...someone to eat up innings if needed??? :dunno: Just a thought.

[Bip Roberts]

Lohse has always been a head case. Last thing we need to do is sign him as a starter and move him to the bullpen creating the perfect storm.

[TheBigLebowski]

I just threw up in my mouth a little bit..

[Degenerate39]

I wouldn't mind having him for a year to give Bailey and Company more time in the minors. But I wouldn't want to pay him 8 million for about 8 good starts. If you can't get him for a decent price (which probably won't happen) then leave him alone and take your chances with the young guys.

[The Snow Chief]

It seems like an intruiging option. That would allow Bailey to move to #5 and possibly move Volquez to the pen. This is Griffey's last year here and possibily Dunn's last. It would give them a shot to make a run for the central IMO. I don't think the 08 team has much of a shot at the Central with two rookies and Belisle in the rotation. It's possible, but the odds are not good.

As long as Lohse doesn't implode (which I understand is a large assumption), then the upside is spending $8M on an integral part of a playoff run (which is money well spent) and the downside is spending about $4M on him for half a season and netting a prospect like Matt Maloney again (which is not that bad of a fate). Either way, if Lohse can keep his ERA near 2007 numbers (4.62), it's not that bad of a deal for the Reds.

[ChatterRed]

Sign Lohse to a 1 year deal?

I'll be back. I need to go change my pants.

[BLEEDS]

Lohse on a one year deal wouldn't be bad - versus trying to pound square peg (Affeldt) into round hole (Starter Pitcher).

ANYTHING to keep Cueto and Bailey in AAA for a bit of time is good in my book.

It's surely better than pinning hopes on Belisle and gang to fill out #3-5 and ALL Overachieve.

Belisle in the #4 hole would be ABOVE AVERAGE, versus being below average in the #3and you can hope for Volquez to man the #5.

Since we can't move Arroyo to #3 yet, this is the next best option, IMO, if you want to WIN in this narrow window of opportunity.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[*BaseClogger*]

The only reason he will accept a one-year contract is to establish higher value. The best way to do that is to pitch in a big market or in a pitcher's park- not GABP. I don't see Lohse being intersted in rejoining the Reds...

I'll take him one-year $8 million though! :thumbup:

[Bip Roberts]

Lohse is probably the last pitcher on the free agent market I would sign. Honestly Id rather have reliever games than give him the ball.

[*BaseClogger*]

Lohse is probably the last pitcher on the free agent market I would sign. Honestly Id rather have reliever games than give him the ball.

can you explain this? numbers disagree...

[The Snow Chief]

Where else can you find a starting pitcher in the prime of his career who is coming off a full season in which he pitched 192 innings and put up a 4.62 ERA (100 ERA+ park adjusted) and you: (a) don't have trade any talent to get him; and (b) only have to commit to paying him for one year? It's not out there. There is a premium on even average starting pitching, and that is what Kyle Lohse gives you.

192 innings of 4.62 ERA (100 ERA+) is something just about any team can use as a 3rd or at least 4th starter. While I am high on Bailey, Cueto, and Volquez, those types of numbers are likely to be better than what any of them put up if they are thrown to the fire in 2008 and are likely to be better than anything Matt Belisle puts up.

If the Reds are out of it, they can move Lohse again and dump the salary and pick up a servicable prospect. They are out $4M or so and pick up a prospect. Let's say Bailey or one of the other young guns goes off in 2008, has a monster year, and the Reds contend. Having a Kyle Lohse as your 4th starter is much better than what most teams trot out there.

The only way not going for this makes sense to me is if you think last year's numbers were an abberation and Lohse is going to implode. While anything is possible, nothing indicates that that is likely to happen. If it does, unlike an Eric Milton, your investment in him will not hinder future teams.

[Bip Roberts]

can you explain this? numbers disagree...

I dont care what his end of the year numbers are its how he gets there.

I dont want reliever games honestly. Although I'd much rather have Volquez and Bailey in our rotation than Lohse.

[The Snow Chief]

The only reason he will accept a one-year contract is to establish higher value. The best way to do that is to pitch in a big market or in a pitcher's park- not GABP. I don't see Lohse being intersted in rejoining the Reds...

I'll take him one-year $8 million though! :thumbup:

Perhaps, but agents can always throw back park adjusted numbers. Plus, pitching in the NL Central would be advantagous IMO. There are some good hitters in the league, but no lineup that can be construed as a murderer's row.

[*BaseClogger*]

Perhaps, but agents can always throw back park adjusted numbers. Plus, pitching in the NL Central would be advantagous IMO. There are some good hitters in the league, but no lineup that can be construed as a murderer's row.

Ha, adjusting ERA for park variations might get a little complex for some of these GM's running some of today's MLB teams. Yeah, the NL Central probably is the second best division for him to chose, but GABP is suicide. If I'm him, I do whatever it takes to get in the NL West...

[BLEEDS]

I dont care what his end of the year numbers are its how he gets there.

I dont want reliever games honestly. Although I'd much rather have Volquez and Bailey in our rotation than Lohse.

Typical.

You think Volquez and Bailey are going to "Get you there" better than Kyle Lohse, by being thrown to the wolves?!

You can plug Lohse in the #3, put Belisle at #4 - and then let ONE of the young guys - or multiple guys from the group more likely as they are bound to hit bumps - in the #5, and let the rest start the year in AAA.

Instead you'd rather have 2-3 of them start the year in the Majors at the same time, and HOPING they ALL Overachieve, instead of the inevitable struggles they are bound to go through, a la Bailey in 2007.

Most people with any understanding of developing young arms would be thrilled to add a Kyle Lohse to this team on a 1 year deal. It also practically guarantees that Affeldt sticks in the pen, where he would do MUCH MORE in the way of bettering this 2008 team.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[Bip Roberts]

"Gets you there"

If you are going to quote something I say at least get it right. Kyle Lohse gets his season stats by either being lights out of giving up 8 runs.

Lohse is a #1 or hes a #7 depending of which Lohse you get.

You act like Lohse is some god of a pitcher who never struggles. Hes going to struggle from start to start as much as Bailey or Volquez are. Hes a mental midget.

Sorry if id rather have our young guys take the lumps now instead of forever pushing them off till the next year like you want to do.

[BLEEDS]

I like my new signature....

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[Bip Roberts]

I knew we should have signed Jon Leiber hes is bound to be better than anyone we have.

[*BaseClogger*]

Bip,

there are three possible outcomes for a Kyle Lohse signing:

1. Lohse pitches as good as he did last year, and it helps us make the playoffs (is that ok, even though the young guys don't get to take their "lumps"?)

2. Lohse pitches as good as he did last year, we suck, he gets traded for the next Matt Maloney (maybe the new Matt Maloney can compete for the #5 in 2009 and take his "lumps"!) and the young guns get called up for the second half in preparation of 2009

3. Lohse sucks and we lose $8 million (only a one-year contract!)

[CarolinaRedleg]

If he can be had for $8m for a year, it's worth a look.

Then, flip the losers of the Affeldt/Bailey/Volquez No. 5 pitcher sweepstakes into the bullpen for a little Earl Weaver 101 and you're in decent-to-good shape for this year and beyond.

[Bip Roberts]

Bip,

there are three possible outcomes for a Kyle Lohse signing:

1. Lohse pitches as good as he did last year, and it helps us make the playoffs (is that ok, even though the young guys don't get to take their "lumps"?)

2. Lohse pitches as good as he did last year, we suck, he gets traded for the next Matt Maloney (maybe the new Matt Maloney can compete for the #5 in 2009 and take his "lumps"!) and the young guns get called up for the second half in preparation of 2009

3. Lohse sucks and we lose $8 million (only a one-year contract!)
1. Lohse season numbers say hes pitches decent but his game by game stats refute that. Typical Lohse 4 game stretch 9 IP 0 ER, 1.1 IP 5 ER, 4.2 IP 6 ER, 6.0 IP 3 ER. He struggles as much if not more than our young guys are going to.

2. So you are for paying 8 million dollars for a prospect? Use the 8 million in the draft if you want to do that.

3. Lohse does suck!

[*BaseClogger*]

1. Lohse helped the Phillips make the playoffs

2. We would only be paying half of his contract for the prospect because he would be traded mid-season. And yes, I'll take Matt Maloney for $4 million plus half a season of a #3 starter...

[redhawk61]

At the end of the day though his numbers are a very solid #4 Heck jsut take a look at his player page at his last 10 games

http://mlb.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?player_id=346798

He acctually did not pitch that bad last year minus the W-L record which is all relative. It seemed that on a better team that are the Phillies who were in a playoff race he pitched quite well for a #4. with are improved bullpen he might be very valuable to us in the #3-4 slot and might put up better numbers.

On a one year deal sign him

[Dracodave]

1. Lohse season numbers say hes pitches decent but his game by game stats refute that. Typical Lohse 4 game stretch 9 IP 0 ER, 1.1 IP 5 ER, 4.2 IP 6 ER, 6.0 IP 3 ER. He struggles as much if not more than our young guys are going to.

2. So you are for paying 8 million dollars for a prospect? Use the 8 million in the draft if you want to do that.

3. Lohse does suck!

1) I couldnt agree more with. If you want instability look no futher than Cueto or Bailey and let them learn.

2)You got a prospect with Volquez, invest that 8 million somewhere else, like signing someone good next season.

3)Couldnt agree more. Lohse was the most frustrating in terms of potentional to attitude/headcase I've seen lately.

[Bip Roberts]

1. Lohse helped the Phillips make the playoffs

2. We would only be paying half of his contract for the prospect because he would be traded mid-season. And yes, I'll take Matt Maloney for $4 million plus half a season of a #3 starter...
He helped them make the playoffs? Really... 5.5 ip per start while he was with them.

He did the same thing in Philly he did in Cincy, Great start terrible start, amazing start, awful start.

Lohse tried pretty hard to knock them them out of the playoffs by being the only person in history to let Kaz Matsui hit a grand slam off him.

Lohse isn't a #3, his yearly numbers say he is but his individual game stats don't.

[*BaseClogger*]

1) I couldnt agree more with. If you want instability look no futher than Cueto or Bailey and let them learn.

2)You got a prospect with Volquez, invest that 8 million somewhere else, like signing someone good next season.
3)Couldnt agree more. Lohse was the most frustrating in terms of potentional to attitude/headcase I've seen lately.

it would be a one-year contract. That money will be available again next offseason...

[Bip Roberts]

it would be a one-year contract. That money will be available again next offseason...

Actually they would have 16 million.

or 12 million if you traded him half way through the year.

[BLEEDS]

Lohse isn't a #3, his yearly numbers say he is but his individual game stats don't.

That makes absolutely No Sense. Posting a ~4.5 ERA for an entire year, kepping about a .500 win percentage, is exactly what the Doctor orders for your #3 guy.

You want to see someone who's NOT a #3 - look at Matt Belisle.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[Bip Roberts]

That makes absolutely No Sense. Posting a ~4.5 ERA for an entire year, kepping about a .500 win percentage, is exactly what the Doctor orders for your #3 guy.

You want to see someone who's NOT a #3 - look at Matt Belisle.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

So your normal ML #3 pitches less than 5 ip 10 times a year?

[mlbfan30]

Loshe at 8M , 1 Year is a very reasonable contract and is probably the best one left for any FA SP......

But if the Reds get Loshe, then the rotation is ....
Harang/Arroyo/Loshe/Belisle/???? , where ???? = Affeldt/Bailey/Volquez/Cueto/Maloney

That looks a lot like last years, and we all know where that got us. I would suspect Volquez gets the #5 spot, since we did trade a star CFer for him.

The thing is, if we continue to baby our prospects, then whats the point of having them? We all know about situations where both LA baby their prospects so much they eventually become non prospects and slip away. You have to understand, Bailey/Volquez/Cueto are considered top tier guys with #1,#2 ability. I don't get the thought that all of them will struggle and not help the team. If you always think that, then they will never be on the team and never realize the potential, same thing with Bruce. You have to take a chance at some point to trust them. They can't not never be ready.

Here's the point; Volquez, Bailey, Cueto all have a much higher potential to succeed at anything Loshe could hope to acomplish. The young 3 have a chance to post ERAs around 3.5 and be #1.#2 starters next year. I would suspect Cueto could become Gallardo of last year. At the very worst, maybe a 5.25 ERA. Loshe would post a 4.50 ERA at best, considering his 4.82 lifetime ERA.

Is the worst case scenerio that ALL 3 young pitchers give you an ERA .75 higher than Loshe. That NONE of the 3 could match his 4.50 ERA.
You think the chance that even 1 of 3 breaks out to post a sub 4.00 ERA is so small, it's not worth the risk?

Loshe is obviously the "safer" choice, but safe has limits. Every year there are multiple young pitchers that make names for themselves, such as...
Lincecum, Gallardo, Carmona, Hamels, Cain, McGowan, Shields, etc.

Why play the safe choice when all 3 could reasonable join the list and become dominant starters.

[The Snow Chief]

Whether he is a normal #3 or a #4, I think we can all agree that he is likely to put up better numbers than anyone else the Reds trot out in 2008 not named Harang or Arroyo.

[*BaseClogger*]

But if the Reds get Loshe, then the rotation is ....
Harang/Arroyo/Loshe/Belisle/???? , where ???? = Affeldt/Bailey/Volquez/Cueto/Maloney

why would that competition be a bad thing? And I'm sure you know that we are going to need more than five starters next year. It ensures Affeldt is in the bullpen where he belongs. Bailey and Cueto would not be hurt by more time at AAA. Worst case, we trade Lohse midseason again and those young guys can pitch the last two months of the season in the big league rotation and take over in 2009...

[Bip Roberts]

Whether he is a normal #3 or a #4, I think we can all agree that he is likely to put up better numbers than anyone else the Reds trot out in 2008 not named Harang or Arroyo.

I wont agree with that, just because of how inconsistent Lohse is.

I can handle it out of a rookie but I have no interest in paying a Vet to do it.

[The Snow Chief]

I wont agree with that, just because of how inconsistent Lohse is.

I can handle it out of a rookie but I have no interest in paying a Vet to do it.

Well, we'll see. You may be right. I actually think Bailey is going to have a good rookie season. However, if I had to bet on who posts better numbers in 2008 between Lohse, Belise, Bailey, Cueto, and Volquez, I'd put my money on Lohse.

[Caveman Techie]

So your normal ML #3 pitches less than 5 ip 10 times a year?

In fairness, 2 of those less than 5 IP were relief appearances.

[Bip Roberts]

Well, we'll see. You may be right. I actually think Bailey is going to have a good rookie season. However, if I had to bet on who posts better numbers in 2008 between Lohse, Belise, Bailey, Cueto, and Volquez, I'd put my money on Lohse.

If Lohse was posting his yearly numbers with out being a roller coaster all year Id love to have him back. The fact is he cant be consistent enough.

It does the team no good to have a guy almost throw no hitters 3 times a year and then 8 times a year not make it out of the 5th inning.

Like i said if Homer struggles I'm fine with it. Odds are hes going to have to struggle some time in his career, pushing him back to the minors where he pretty much did everything he had to do there isnt going to make him a better major leaguer.

[Bip Roberts]

In fairness, 2 of those less than 5 IP were relief appearances.

:D

[BoCcc2832]

No. No. No. No. NO. You couldn't pay me Lohse's salary to allow him on the team. There was a reason why the Reds traded him away to Philadelphia. He's been here, he couldn't do it. Why would anyone ever consider him coming to the Reds? If you want to help Bailey/Cueto/Volquez develop, I understand. Unfortunately, that window closed when we were unable to sign another starting pitcher (Affeldt only slightly counts because we still don't know if he'll start...all depends on his March). So no, if you want Kyle Lohse back, the same Kyle Lohse everyone hated seven months ago, then pick another team to follow or don't expect a postseason chase this year. That's how detrimental he would be.

[The Snow Chief]

I wont agree with that, just because of how inconsistent Lohse is.

I can handle it out of a rookie but I have no interest in paying a Vet to do it.

Lohse is inconsistent. However, his inconsistency ranges from brilliant to bad. Because he has enough of those brilliant games, they make up for some of the clunkers. It's frustrating because we know he has the ability to pitch brilliantly. However, even with his inconsistentcy, he pitches well enough on average to at least be the #4 for most clubs and the #3 for several clubs, including the Reds, IMO.

I'll take 8 innings of 1 run baseball followed by 5 innings of 5 run baseball over back to back starts of 6 innings of 4 run baseball. Over the long haul, you'll win more games and have a more rested bullpen.

[Bip Roberts]

Lohse is inconsistent. However, his inconsistency ranges from brilliant to bad. Because he has enough of those brilliant games, they make up for some of the clunkers. It's frustrating because we know he has the ability to pitch brilliantly. However, even with his inconsistentcy, he pitches well enough on average to at least be the #4 for most clubs and the #3 for several clubs, including the Reds, IMO.

I'll take 8 innings of 1 run baseball followed by 5 innings of 5 run baseball over back to back starts of 6 innings of 4 run baseball. Over the long haul, you'll win more games and have a more rested bullpen.

Thats not really comparable because one is 13 innings of 6 earned runs and the other is 12 and 8 earned runs.

[The Snow Chief]

No. No. No. No. NO. You couldn't pay me Lohse's salary to allow him on the team. There was a reason why the Reds traded him away to Philadelphia. He's been here, he couldn't do it. Why would anyone ever consider him coming to the Reds? If you want to help Bailey/Cueto/Volquez develop, I understand. Unfortunately, that window closed when we were unable to sign another starting pitcher (Affeldt only slightly counts because we still don't know if he'll start...all depends on his March). So no, if you want Kyle Lohse back, the same Kyle Lohse everyone hated seven months ago, then pick another team to follow or don't expect a postseason chase this year. That's how detrimental he would be.

Kyle Lohse was not the team's problem last year. The bullpen and the No. 4 and 5 spots were. Belisle had to be sent to the minors he was so ineffective. I can understand an argument that it is too expensive or not cost effective. I may disagree, but I understand. However, an argument that Kyle Lohse would not improve this team at all (even as a #5 guy) just doesn't make much sense to me.

[Bip Roberts]

You could say that Lohse caused more problems for the bullpen than he helped it.

[topsyt]

Or was it Loshe knew there was no help in the bullpen and tryed to be overpowering and too precise at times. Probably all the starting staff had that in the back of their minds at some point last season.

He is definitely worth a one-year deal if the $ are right.

[Bip Roberts]

Or was it Loshe knew there was no help in the bullpen and tryed to be overpowering and too precise at times. Probably all the starting staff had that in the back of their minds at some point last season.

He is definitely worth a one-year deal if the $ are right.

No it wasnt because hes done it every year of his career.

[redsfan1966]

if the reds do bring lohse back...old Marty B would have to backtrack a little, he ripped ol' Kyle mericlessly during the winter caravan...

[SMcGavin]

1. Lohse season numbers say hes pitches decent but his game by game stats refute that. Typical Lohse 4 game stretch 9 IP 0 ER, 1.1 IP 5 ER, 4.2 IP 6 ER, 6.0 IP 3 ER. He struggles as much if not more than our young guys are going to.

I see this all the time, and it's ridiculous. If Lohse put up those four starts you just posted - that's 21 innings and 14 ER. That's a 6.00 ERA. Guess what, Kyle Lohse didn't have a 6.00 ERA. Not even close to it. So no, that's not a typical Lohse 4 game stretch. People cry and moan constantly about how our players aren't "consistent" enough, whether it's Lohse, Dunn, EE, whoever. Guess what - nobody in MLB plays at the same level constantly. You just notice it on the Reds players because you watch them every day.

I really have never understood the hate for Lohse on this board. If we went into this season with Harang, Arroyo, and 3 Kyle Lohses, we would be a virtual lock for the playoffs.

[SMcGavin]

Where else can you find a starting pitcher in the prime of his career who is coming off a full season in which he pitched 192 innings and put up a 4.62 ERA (100 ERA+ park adjusted) and you: (a) don't have trade any talent to get him; and (b) only have to commit to paying him for one year? It's not out there. There is a premium on even average starting pitching, and that is what Kyle Lohse gives you.

192 innings of 4.62 ERA (100 ERA+) is something just about any team can use as a 3rd or at least 4th starter. While I am high on Bailey, Cueto, and Volquez, those types of numbers are likely to be better than what any of them put up if they are thrown to the fire in 2008 and are likely to be better than anything Matt Belisle puts up.

If the Reds are out of it, they can move Lohse again and dump the salary and pick up a servicable prospect. They are out $4M or so and pick up a prospect. Let's say Bailey or one of the other young guns goes off in 2008, has a monster year, and the Reds contend. Having a Kyle Lohse as your 4th starter is much better than what most teams trot out there.

The only way not going for this makes sense to me is if you think last year's numbers were an abberation and Lohse is going to implode. While anything is possible, nothing indicates that that is likely to happen. If it does, unlike an Eric Milton, your investment in him will not hinder future teams.

That's a fantastic post. Also just to add, if we were to keep Lohse until the end of 2008 (say if we stay in contention) and then let him go, we would likely pick up a draft pick in compensation.

[Bip Roberts]

I see this all the time, and it's ridiculous. If Lohse put up those four starts you just posted - that's 21 innings and 14 ER. That's a 6.00 ERA. Guess what, Kyle Lohse didn't have a 6.00 ERA. Not even close to it. So no, that's not a typical Lohse 4 game stretch. People cry and moan constantly about how our players aren't "consistent" enough, whether it's Lohse, Dunn, EE, whoever. Guess what - nobody in MLB plays at the same level constantly. You just notice it on the Reds players because you watch them every day.

I really have never understood the hate for Lohse on this board. If we went into this season with Harang, Arroyo, and 3 Kyle Lohses, we would be a virtual lock for the playoffs.

You wanna know whats funny, Lohse acutally did put up those 4 starts in a row. He does that crap all season long. He gets to a 4.60 or what ever he ended up with but its nothing but a terrible bumpy road all year long. He might not put up those exact numbers every start but thats just a typical example of how all over the place he is. If you dont believe me look at his game by game stats.

Asking a guy to never slump or have bad stretches is silly because they happen, but the fact is people are more consistent than others. What good is it to a team when one month you are batting .400 and the next month you are lucky to bat .100. Great you had a good month and followed it up with one of the worst months in history and were pretty much automatic out. Its not about never having slumps its just making them not last so long or so often. Edwin has had problems with that, he young and its bound to happen. Dunn has had problems with it but its been getting better, 2nd half of last season he did a great job at being consistent. Lohse has to be the least consistent starter in the majors. I dont care what his ERA is. I dont want a guy who one night isnt worthy of being on a beer league and the next he looks like Nolan Ryan, especially if hes making 8 million dollars and taking starts away from our highly ranked prospects.

[AmarilloRed]

One question to consider is whether Lohse would be interesting in returning to the Reds. I believe he made some negative comments after he was traded that indicated he was not interested in returning to Cincinnati.

I have always compared Kyle Lohse to that proverbial little girl. When he is good, he is very good; but when he is bad, he is simply horrid. I don't see anything wrong with a 1 year deal, as it will put Affeldt in the pen, and allow Bailey/Velasquez to spend some more time in AAA.

[SMcGavin]

You wanna know whats funny, Lohse acutally did put up those 4 starts in a row. He does that crap all season long.

No, he doesn't. If he did, his ERA last year would have been 6.00. His ERA on the Reds was 4.58. So for every four game stretch like the one you posted, he had another four game stretch with an ERA around 3.00.

[Bip Roberts]

No, he doesn't. If he did, his ERA last year would have been 6.00. His ERA on the Reds was 4.58. So for every four game stretch like the one you posted, he had another four game stretch with an ERA around 3.00.
I said he might not do the same numbers but hes just as inconsistent. Did you not go and look?

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/gamelog?playerId=4789

Check it out for yourself. The guys monthly eras should be proof enough that he is a train wreck.

2.88
6.40
5.80
3.81
4.35
5.10

Guy is all over the place with his ERA.

[BLEEDS]

But if the Reds get Loshe, then the rotation is ....
Harang/Arroyo/Loshe/Belisle/???? , where ???? = Affeldt/Bailey/Volquez/Cueto/Maloney

That looks a lot like last years, and we all know where that got us. I

Oh, I see. You and Bip Roberts must live on the same planet.

INSTEAD, you'd rather it be:

Harang/Arroyo/Belisle/???/???, where ??? - Affeldt, Bailey, Volquez, Cueto/Maloney.

That looks WAY different than last year - minus a guy who will give you 200 IP with a ~4.5 ERA...

MY BAD!!!:thumbdown

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[scounts22]

I said he might not do the same numbers but hes just as inconsistent. Did you not go and look?

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/gamelog?playerId=4789

Check it out for yourself. The guys monthly eras should be proof enough that he is a train wreck.

2.88
6.40
5.80
3.81
4.35
5.10

Guy is all over the place with his ERA.

Ok, fine, so he's all over the place, I'll agree. However, after what I saw from Bailey last year, I don't think he'll do any better to begin the year than Loshe. I would like to buy a little time for Homer in AAA to develop a bit more. Do I think Homer could be great? Sure. Do I think he's going to be great at the beginning of the season? Not so much. I'd rather have him continue to work and build confidence and maybe come up in June when he's got some success already built up behind him in the season. He'll also have his prior major league experience to gain from as well.

Let Loshe get a few early starts and if Homer or somebody else is ready to come up in the middle of the season, bring them up and dump Loshe. That's what I think. :D

[Bip Roberts]

Ok, fine, so he's all over the place, I'll agree. However, after what I saw from Bailey last year, I don't think he'll do any better to begin the year than Loshe. I would like to buy a little time for Homer in AAA to develop a bit more. Do I think Homer could be great? Sure. Do I think he's going to be great at the beginning of the season? Not so much. I'd rather have him continue to work and build confidence and maybe come up in June when he's got some success already built up behind him in the season. He'll also have his prior major league experience to gain from as well.

Let Loshe get a few early starts and if Homer or somebody else is ready to come up in the middle of the season, bring them up and dump Loshe. That's what I think. :D

See while I understand the thinking of this I have trouble agreeing that Homer throwing in AAA is going to make him learn how to pitch better in the majors. Hes already dominated AAA. He needs to make the jump to the next level some time and I think spending more time in AAA isnt going to help him much more.

[scounts22]

See while I understand the thinking of this I have trouble agreeing that Homer throwing in AAA is going to make him learn how to pitch better in the majors. Hes already dominated AAA. He needs to make the jump to the next level some time and I think spending more time in AAA isnt going to help him much more.

I understand what you're saying too. My thought was, didn't the coaching staff want Homer to work on developing another pitch last year? Which one, I don't remember, but I thought that was part of the problem. Didn't he rely too much on his fast ball?

[Bip Roberts]

I understand what you're saying too. My thought was, didn't the coaching staff want Homer to work on developing another pitch last year? Which one, I don't remember, but I thought that was part of the problem. Didn't he rely too much on his fast ball?

I think dougdirt would be a better response to this because I know hes broken it all down before. He broke all kinds of stuff on homers 9 or so starts in cincy last year. Release points, velocity, pitch selection and kinda pretty much said when he was injured he was releasing the ball different with less speed and was throwing more fast balls to counter act that he couldnt get the movement on his curve or keep his change down in the zone. When he was healthy he said he didnt throw any more fast balls than any other normal pitcher.

[redhawk61]

I think dougdirt would be a better response to this because I know hes broken it all down before. He broke all kinds of stuff on homers 9 or so starts in cincy last year. Release points, velocity, pitch selection and kinda pretty much said when he was injured he was releasing the ball different with less speed and was throwing more fast balls to counter act that he couldnt get the movement on his curve or keep his change down in the zone. When he was healthy he said he didnt throw any more fast balls than any other normal pitcher.

Exactly Homer's final four starts would qualify him as a good number 3 in any rotation (not taking into account the obvious he needs more time and such but just on stats) His stats are even possibly good enough for a #2 but the innings were not enough so he falls to a #3. If Homer can get 175 innings this year I have a feeling we will be very happy

O and sign loshe to a 1yr deal. We can hope that his slumps don't come at the wrong time, and also hope that our improved bullpen will keep his numbers from getting too bad during those bad times when he laves the bullpen with too many inherited runs and such

[bounty37h]

I think he is too much of a risk for the Reds, he was a headcase here last year, and I think if he came back, first long ball jacked off him would be the end of his career, dont think he has mental makeup to overcome it in Cincy again.

[Bip Roberts]

Homers pitch count is going to be his downfall all year. He just needs the time to learn how to get the major league batters out, and time to learn the strike zone.

[scounts22]

I think dougdirt would be a better response to this because I know hes broken it all down before. He broke all kinds of stuff on homers 9 or so starts in cincy last year. Release points, velocity, pitch selection and kinda pretty much said when he was injured he was releasing the ball different with less speed and was throwing more fast balls to counter act that he couldnt get the movement on his curve or keep his change down in the zone. When he was healthy he said he didnt throw any more fast balls than any other normal pitcher.

Oh yeah, you're right. Thanks, forgot about that!:thumbup:

[AmarilloRed]

The Mets may end up with Lohse as well as Santana:

In the meantime, there are signs that the Mets continue to express interest in free-agent pitcher Kyle Lohse. Lohse was viewed, essentially, as the Mets' backup plan in case they weren't able to trade for Santana. But when one baseball man who had spoken with Mets GM Omar Minaya was asked if the club could end up with both Santana and Lohse, the reply was: "Absolutely."

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3224116

[RSNtransplant]

Lohse had 15 quality starts in 32 Starts, Belisle had 12 quality starts in 30 starts, with a ERA half a run higher. Lohse may hit some lows but he is as consistent as Belisle, and has a much longer track record. So I'd sign him, then you have 3 guys @ the front end who have pitched 200 innings in a season(this is benchmark number-check this number for WS winners). Then fill the last 2 spots with Bailey, Voloquez, Belisle, Cueto,.... You run out the hot hand. Someone is bound to get injured, underperform, same as one of those 4 being bound to step it up a notch or three. If Reds want to contend this year, they need guys who can throw 200 innings.

[Bip Roberts]

Lohse had 15 quality starts in 32 Starts, Belisle had 12 quality starts in 30 starts, with a ERA half a run higher. Lohse may hit some lows but he is as consistent as Belisle, and has a much longer track record. So I'd sign him, then you have 3 guys @ the front end who have pitched 200 innings in a season(this is benchmark number-check this number for WS winners). Then fill the last 2 spots with Bailey, Voloquez, Belisle, Cueto,.... You run out the hot hand. Someone is bound to get injured, underperform, same as one of those 4 being bound to step it up a notch or three. If Reds want to contend this year, they need guys who can throw 200 innings.

15 quality starts with 8 down right terrible starts of less than 5 innings. Belisle might have only had 12 QS but he was on pace to pitch just as many innings and had less terrible outings. Pitching is about giving you team the best chance to win every 5th day thats something Lohse doesnt do.

Also about being consistent. Belisle is far more consistent than Lohse. Belisle goes 5-7 innings every start and the shortest starts last year were 3.2, 4.0 and 4.2 ip and they all happened with in a 4 game stretch if i remember correctly. Every other start of his atleast went 5 innings something Lohse struggles to do with any regularity.

[Jefferson24]

You can never have too much pitching. Sign him cheap, pull him early if need be and use the host of young starters as long relief if they're not in the rotation. The bottom line is the young kids need innings to get better. However you don't want to run them out there every fifth day to just get raked. So pick your spots and fit them into situations they are likely to succeed in. Come 09 they will be better off for it and we will have a darn good rotation established by then.

[BLEEDS]

Pitching is about giving you team the best chance to win every 5th day thats something Lohse doesnt do.

You want that from your #1 and #2 starters.

What you want with your #3/#4 starters is guys who will win maybe 50%, give you 4.5/5.0 ERA.

Lohse will give you that, and moreso can be a #3, he's thrown 200 innings MANY times, and has also shown to be very healthy over his career. You can't say any of the above you'll get, for sure, from Belisle, and you surely can't say that about Bailey/Volquez who've pitched only sparingly in the Bigs, and definitely not for Cueto/Maloney who've barely pitched in AAA, and Affeldt who we don't even know if he can develop a third pitch to GET a starting job.

You take the KNOWN and hope for the hope at 1-2 positions, instead of 3 - IF you want to compete and win that is...

Your pat arguments for getting a veteran pitcher don't apply to Lohse - old, retread, injury risk, blah blah blah - so now you change your argument to fit the situation.

Just admit you don't want to do anything other than throw all the rookies against a wall, hope one sticks, and not worry about the ones who splatter and run down the wall.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[Bip Roberts]

No matter how you look at it his asking price isnt going to be cheap.

[Jefferson24]

No matter how you look at it his asking price isnt going to be cheap.

Each day that goes by it gets cheaper and cheaper.

[Bip Roberts]

You want that from your #1 and #2 starters. What you want with your #3/#4 starters is guys who will win 50%, give you 4.5/5.0 ERA.

Lohse will give you that. You can't say the same for sure yet about Belisle, and you surely can't say that about Bailey/Volquez who've pitched only sparingly in the Bigs, and definitely not for Cueto/Maloney who've barely pitched in AAA, and Affeldt who we don't even know if he can develop a third pitch to GET a starting job.

You take the KNOWN and hope for the hope at 1-2 positions, instead of 3 - IF you want to compete and win that is...

Your pat arguments for getting a veteran pitcher don't apply to Lohse - old, retread, injury risk, blah blah blah - so now you change your argument to fit the situation.

Just admit you don't want to do anything other than throw all the rookies against a wall, hope one sticks, and not worry about the ones who splatter and run down the wall.

PEACE

-BLEEDS
The veteran pitchers you wanted to sign are old, retreads, and are injury risk. Lohse never came into the equation beacuse there is no chance we take him back anyways. If i had my choice of any free agent junk out there Lohse only wins by default.

You wanna talk about throwing stuff on the wall and hoping it sticks? How about Kyle Lohse, throw him against the wall and hope he can get someone out, because the days he can hes as good as anyone and the days he cant hes flat out terrible. I dont like that out of any ball player, and I'm surprised anyone can.

Unlike you, I understand that rookies have to normally struggle in the majors before they get better. You just think if you never start them they never struggle. Id rather go into the season with the question marks being highly ranked rookies than the question mark being how bad or how good kyle lohse is going to be on any given start. We know he never improves why go down that road again?

So yes I want our young guys to pitch and gain experience at the major league level over giving a bunch of money to a guy who I have zero faith in.

[BLEEDS]

from the ORG, where it's been also quoted that "Over the years I've noticed that league average pitching is typically vastly underrated here at Redszone"

Quote:
Originally Posted by Reds Nd2
Stuff

A rough indicator of the pitcher's overall dominance, based on normalized strikeout rates, walk rates, home run rates, runs allowed, and innings per game. "10" is league average, while "0" is roughly replacement level.

Kyle Lohse's Stuff


Code:
Year Team Stuff IP
2001 MIN 2 90.1
2002 MIN 6 180.2
2003 MIN 11 201.0
2004 MIN -4 194.0
2005 MIN 1 178.2
2006 MIN -4 63.2
2006 CIN 18 63.0
2007 CIN 11 131.2
2007 PHI 8 61.0

[*BaseClogger*]

As for Homer Bailey having already dominated AAA- I ask that you look at these numbers: (in only 67.1 career AAA innings)
6.55 H/9
.53 HR/9
4.28 BB/9
7.89 K/9
He has been tough to hit in AAA, but has had obvious control problems and based on the strikeouts has not been terrifically dominant. I don't think Homer could be very successful in the majors if he pitched the same way he has in AAA. Poor control coupled with a lower strikeout rate against more polished MLB hitters would probably spell dissaster for him. I would rather let him spend May/April in AAA dominating before I call him up.

It was suggested that Bailey could be a #2 this year if he throws 175 innings- Homer only threw 120 innings last year, and following the 30 inning increase cap, Bailey should not exceed 150 innings this year. Just another reason why I wouldn't mind seeing him start the season in AAA...

[Bip Roberts]

No one has ever doubted Kyle Lohse stuff... Hes as good as anyone when hes on.

[BLEEDS]

Unlike you, I understand that rookies have to normally struggle in the majors before they get better. You just think if you never start them they never struggle.

I don't have a problem with them starting - I just don't want THREE (3) of them starting in the MAJORS - make them start in AAA, where NONE of them have yet to dominate, versus letting them earn their lumps in the Bigs. MANY a young arm, and more importantly psyche, have been DESTROYED by having them thrown to the wolves of the Majors.

Let them develop command and confidence at AAA, and "kick in the door" of the Majors, instead of letting them flounder, lose confidence after being "sent down" when they inevitably struggle. Even Belisle had to be sent down last year.

Yep, let's do the former, instead of getting a guy we KNOW can pitch in the Majors, to the tune of "League Average or Above" for 200 Innings.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[Bip Roberts]

As for Homer Bailey having already dominated AAA- I ask that you look at these numbers: (in only 67.1 career AAA innings)
6.55 H/9
.53 HR/9
4.28 BB/9
7.89 K/9
He has been tough to hit in AAA, but has had obvious control problems and based on the strikeouts has not been terrifically dominant. I don't think Homer could be very successful in the majors if he pitched the same way he has in AAA. Poor control coupled with a lower strikeout rate against more polished MLB hitters would probably spell dissaster for him. I would rather let him spend May/April in AAA dominating before I call him up.

It was suggested that Bailey could be a #2 this year if he throws 175 innings- Homer only threw 120 innings last year, and following the 30 inning increase cap, Bailey should not exceed 150 innings this year. Just another reason why I wouldn't mind seeing him start the season in AAA...

Its not about innings its about pitch counts. Bailey is only going to go as far as his pitch counts let him. He needs to learn the MLB strike zone at some point I dont see why him being our 5 is that big of a problem.

[BLEEDS]

No one has ever doubted Kyle Lohse stuff... Hes as good as anyone when hes on.


Not that "Stuff",
this "Stuff":http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=Stuff

Totally different.

Read the Definition.

He rates out as LEAGUE AVERAGE or Above. Something Belisle, Bailey, Volquez definitely aren't yet, not even in AAA. Cueto/Maloney, etc, have hardly any innings pitched in AAA.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[Bip Roberts]

I don't have a problem with them starting - I just don't want THREE (3) of them starting in the MAJORS - make them start in AAA, where NONE of them have yet to dominate, versus letting them earn their lumps in the Bigs. MANY a young arm, and more importantly psyche, have been DESTROYED by having them thrown to the wolves of the Majors.

Let them develop command and confidence at AAA, and "kick in the door" of the Majors, instead of letting them flounder, lose confidence after being "sent down" when they inevitably struggle. Even Belisle had to be sent down last year.

Yep, let's do the former, instead of getting a guy we KNOW can pitch in the Majors, to the tune of "League Average or Above" for 200 Innings.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

3 rookies? so you think spending more time in the minors is going to magically stop the growing pains from happening?

For saying you want a guy who lets you win 50% of the time in the 3 hole you surely hate giving a guy who was 8-9 this year any credit.

[*BaseClogger*]

Its not about innings its about pitch counts. Bailey is only going to go as far as his pitch counts let him. He needs to learn the MLB strike zone at some point I dont see why him being our 5 is that big of a problem.

There are a lot of smart baseball people that agree with the 30 innings increase limit, so just blowing it off over pitch counts is starting to frustrate me. He averages a very high number of pitches per inning, so even getting it down to league average means he shouldn't pitch more than 150 innings next year. It's not meant to be an exact science, but the bottom line is that there is no way Bailey can hold up as a MLB starter for six months...

[Bip Roberts]

Not that "Stuff",
this "Stuff":http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=Stuff

Totally different.

Read the Definition.

He rates out as LEAGUE AVERAGE or Above. Something Belisle, Bailey, Volquez definitely aren't yet, not even in AAA. Cueto/Maloney, etc, have hardly any innings pitched in AAA.

PEACE

-BLEEDS
Well Jay Bruce isnt league average either so I guess we shouldnt let him ever come up to the majors.

[Bip Roberts]

There are a lot of smart baseball people that agree with the 30 innings increase limit, so just blowing it off over pitch counts is starting to frustrate me. He averages a very high number of pitches per inning, so even getting it down to league average means me shouldn't pitch more than 150 innings next year. It's not meant to be an exact science, but the bottom line is that there is no way Bailey can hold up as a MLB starter for six months...

Im not trying to blow it off, and defiantly not trying to piss you off.

I actually agree with you on that we cant expect him to increase his innings by that much. I was just merely saying the pitch count is more important than the inning count. If he can locate the ball better over time hes going to of course increase the amount of innings he is able to pitch.

[BLEEDS]

some more opinions from the ORG:

Bringing up the kids before they're ready (and none of them are 100% ready, let's not kid ourselves) will be catastrophically detrimental to their development. All of the kids need more time in the minors, make no mistake about it. Until they can consistently get out minor league hitters, it's criminal to assume they can consistently get out major league hitters. - Highlifeman21

In 2008, I'll take Lohse. In 2009 and beyond, I'll take the young guys. - RedsManRick

History is the study.

History has shown that bringing pitchers up early highly correlates to ruined and or shortened careers.

The pitchers that were brought up early and weren't impacted negatively are the exception to the rule, and they are few and far between. - Highlifeman21

pitchers have to debut at some point, but I think that counting on many at once is a bad idea. Young pitchers are more likely to fail badly than even bad veterans are. - princeton

In my few years here, I don't think I've seen a player as undervalued as Lohse. I chalk it up to Cincy fans being so deprived of good starting pitching by terrible starting pitching that they come to revile league average starting pitching. Not to mention the fact Lohse on occasion was lights out and fun to watch. - lollipopcurve

The chances of Bailey putting up comparable numbers to Belisle's 2007 are very slim IMO.

Certainly not worth burning pre-arb years unless he absolutely kicks the door down the first two months of the season while pitching in AAA. - pedro

I know you read the ORG, and have (or at least should have) respect for these guys.
Starting to feel like a minority yet?
How about alone on a deserted island?

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[BLEEDS]

3 rookies? so you think spending more time in the minors is going to magically stop the growing pains from happening?

Uhhh - YES!!!:rolleyes:



For saying you want a guy who lets you win 50% of the time in the 3 hole you surely hate giving a guy who was 8-9 this year any credit.

It wasn't "pick one" it was "do all".


Well Jay Bruce isnt league average either so I guess we shouldnt let him ever come up to the majors.

Good point. Now change from pitchers to position players. Moving target, strawman. Typical "debate" from you.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[Bip Roberts]

I see a bunch of opinions, but you know what people say about opinions.

[BLEEDS]

I see a bunch of opinions, but you know what people say about opinions.

I know what people say about your opinions.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[Bip Roberts]

Uhhh - YES!!!:rolleyes:



It wasn't "pick one" it was "do all".



Good point. Now change from pitchers to position players. Moving target, strawman. Typical "debate" from you.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Are you serious with this crap? Leaving a guy in the minors means he will never struggle once he makes it to the majors?

You wanna stay on pitchers, how can anyone ever prove them self to be major league players if you continuously pull the "they haven't done it in the majors" card. If you never let them in the majors how do they get there?

Just because something is the known doesn't mean the unknown isnt better.

Continue to build your rotations around vets who are grasping for their last contracts or are cast offs and ill stick with the high ranked prospects and we will see who wins.

[BLEEDS]

Continue to build your rotations around vets who are grasping for their last contracts or are cast offs and ill stick with the high ranked prospects and we will see who wins.

Okay - got your Madden ready?

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[SMcGavin]

As for Homer Bailey having already dominated AAA- I ask that you look at these numbers: (in only 67.1 career AAA innings)
6.55 H/9
.53 HR/9
4.28 BB/9
7.89 K/9
He has been tough to hit in AAA, but has had obvious control problems and based on the strikeouts has not been terrifically dominant. I don't think Homer could be very successful in the majors if he pitched the same way he has in AAA. Poor control coupled with a lower strikeout rate against more polished MLB hitters would probably spell dissaster for him. I would rather let him spend May/April in AAA dominating before I call him up.

It was suggested that Bailey could be a #2 this year if he throws 175 innings- Homer only threw 120 innings last year, and following the 30 inning increase cap, Bailey should not exceed 150 innings this year. Just another reason why I wouldn't mind seeing him start the season in AAA...

Yep. Bailey threw 67 innings in AAA, and a K:BB of less than 2 is anything but dominant. He'll be 21 on opening day. He's never thrown more than 139 innings in a season, and that was in A/AA ball two years ago.

Cueto has thrown 22 innings in AAA, 21 innings in AA. He'll be 22 on opening day. He threw 161 innings last year plus winter ball, so I'm not as concerned with him from a durability standpoint. It should be noted that unlike Bailey, Cueto actually did dominate AAA during his brief stay there (21 K, 2 BB). FWIW he dominated AA too (77 K, 11 BB).

Volquez has thrown about 170 innings total in AAA. He was good but not dominant two years ago, but he was awfully dominant last year in 51 innings there: 66 K, 21 BB, 0 HR allowed. He threw almost 180 inning last year across various levels. He'll be 24 on opening day.

Basically Volquez is the only one of the kids to spend more than half a season in AAA. Regardless of what anyone says, Bailey was not dominant in Louisville. Cueto was, but it was only over 21 innings. I think it's reasonable to expect Volquez to make a step up into the rotation, but both Bailey and Cueto need to start in AAA. If Cueto has another half season like those 21 innings from last fall, call him up. If Bailey learns to throw strikes, call him up. In the meantime, if we don't want to suck at the major league level, we need another starter. Lohse would do that at roughly a league average level, and it wouldn't take a long term deal to get him. If you are counting on Bailey to give 175+ innings of under 5 ERA, I think you are going to be very disappointed.

[RSNtransplant]

For the sake of arguement assume Belisle pitches as well as he did last year, Bailey pitches like a #1, V pitches like a #1, Harang and Arroyo pitch to par, when's the last time a team had 5 SPs make 30+starts. So no matter how well you project any of the young guys to pitch, how can having a guy that has proven he can pitch 200 innings be bad, so long as the contract is 1 year. Some one will be out to injury, as a incosistent 5th SP Lohse would be cost effective @ 1year.

[AmarilloRed]

Belisle pitched 177 innings last year, and has a number of incentives in his contract to make 200 IP. He might very well be a cheaper option than Lohse to give you 30 starts. I have said I would not be opposed to signing Lohse, but would he really be interested in returning to the team that traded him?