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View Full Version : 3/9/08 vs Deviless Rays



Matt700wlw
03-09-2008, 11:47 AM
Fay:

Reds vs. the Rays, 1:05 p.m.

Ryan Freel CF
Norris Hopper LF
Jay Bruce RF
Joey Votto 1B
Jolbert Cabrera 3B
Jeff Keppinger SS
Chris Kroski C
Juan Castro 2B
Ryan Hannigan DH

Matt Belisle P

It's 52 degrees here at Progress Energy Park. The Rays PR apologized to me because I'm in the outdoor press box. "I know it's really chilly out there." If he only knew. I'm sure a lot of you are still digging out back in the Tristate. Marty and Thom on the radio ought to warm things up a bit.

This is a beautiful site for a ballpark. Nice view of the bay. The Rays new park is supposed to be built here.

This is a big start for Belisle. I'm not sure if he's on bubble as far as the rotation. But with the young guys pitching well, you'd think the Reds would be looking at all alternatives

OnBaseMachine
03-09-2008, 12:22 PM
Bruce is going deep today.

Matt700wlw
03-09-2008, 01:03 PM
After his stinker last time out, I would say today is a rather important outing for Matt Belisle...

mth123
03-09-2008, 01:13 PM
Rocco Baldelli's injury leaves the Rays short on OF help and long on guys who are likely only realistic options at DH most of the time (Floyd, Gomes, Baldelli) or the DL. Hopper and Freel playing today may prove valuable should the Reds want to move one as they cut down the roster.

Matt700wlw
03-09-2008, 01:18 PM
leadoff single....followed by a double off of Belisle.

cincrazy
03-09-2008, 01:22 PM
Belisle had the runner picked off of first, but hesitated, allowing the runner to get in safely to 2nd. Runners at 2nd and 3rd with nobody out, 3-2 count I believe on Upton.

cincrazy
03-09-2008, 01:23 PM
And he walks him.... Mr. Belisle, if you continue at this rate, it's going to be Fogg, Cueto, and Volquez coming north in the rotation.

Matt700wlw
03-09-2008, 01:23 PM
Reds had the runner picked off between first and second, but Belisle hesitated the throw to second, threw to first, and the runner ended up safe at second. Then he promptly walks the batter.

Matt700wlw
03-09-2008, 01:23 PM
1,2,3 double play.....

Matt700wlw
03-09-2008, 01:26 PM
Nice comeback...gets the K to end the inning without giving up a run

cincrazy
03-09-2008, 01:27 PM
Very nice to see. That inning, and Belisle's spring, could have disintegrated rather quickly. Nice to see him bounce back.

mth123
03-09-2008, 01:28 PM
We saw the best and worst of Matt Belisle that inning. He gives up lots of runners and goes deep into counts, but he gets groundballs which limits damage and leads to a DP here. He follows it up with enough stuff to blow it by the hitters.

He needs a couple of easy innings or he'll still leave a bad taste in Dusty's mouth IMO.

KittyDuran
03-09-2008, 01:29 PM
i'm here! nice & sunny...

Matt700wlw
03-09-2008, 01:29 PM
We saw the best and worst of Matt Belisle that inning. He gives up lots of runners and goes deep into counts, but he gets groundballs which limits damage and leads to a DP here.

Usually he freaks and gives up a crap load of runs when he gets in those situations...that time he didn't.

osuceltic
03-09-2008, 01:36 PM
Usually he freaks and gives up a crap load of runs when he gets in those situations...that time he didn't.

Exactly. That's a good sign, I guess.

It's why his peripherals look better than his production. It's not luck -- it's the fact that he lets a little adversity lead to a lot of runs. That's what scouts call "makeup." Can he make big pitches in big spots to avoid damage? Up to now, the answer has been "no."

cincrazy
03-09-2008, 01:39 PM
RBI double by Hannigan, 3-0 Reds, scores Kroski, who drove in a run, and Castro, who walked.

cincrazy
03-09-2008, 01:40 PM
Bloop rbi single by Freel scores Castro, a Hopper base hit scores Hannigan, and the Reds lead 5-0

cincrazy
03-09-2008, 01:42 PM
Jackson tries to pick off Hopper at first, throws it in the dirt, Freel scores from third. WOW. Edwin Jackson is terrible. He was one of the most talked about uber prospects back in the day. My, oh my, how things change

cincrazy
03-09-2008, 01:47 PM
Votto walks after a Jay Bruce grounder to first, runners on 1st and 2nd two outs, Cabrera retired, inning over, 6-0 Reds

Matt700wlw
03-09-2008, 01:53 PM
Belisle at it again...can't throw strikes, throws a lot of pitches....same old same old.

hippie07
03-09-2008, 01:56 PM
I'm SO not a fan of Belisle .... and its not just these spring training bombs... but when you add those in.. I really hope he doesn't make the rotation - I'd rather have Fogg.. :-(

cincrazy
03-09-2008, 01:56 PM
Two on, nobody out, one run in...

11larkin11
03-09-2008, 01:57 PM
I've never really been a fan of Belisle in the rotation, although I think he can be a good pen guy like he was.

Screwball
03-09-2008, 02:00 PM
I'm SO not a fan of Belisle .... and its not just these spring training bombs... but when you add those in.. I really hope he doesn't make the rotation - I'd rather have Fogg.. :-(

I really hope you're not being serious when you say that.

M2
03-09-2008, 02:03 PM
Belisle at it again...can't throw strikes, throws a lot of pitches....same old same old.

Um, Matt Belisle throws more strikes than most, at least if we're talking about his in-season norm. If you want to say he's too hittable, that's fine, but not throwing strikes isn't a problem he's got.

We also ought to consider what Belisle's out there to do today. Baker put him in the rotation at the start of camp and what he's probably doing today is working on a few wrinkles. Quite frankly, for pitchers with a rotation slot in the bag, early March starts are meaningless.

edabbs44
03-09-2008, 02:03 PM
We were assured all winter that Belisle was going to be fine this year due to FIP, DIPS and every other metric under the sun.

Don't worry. All is well.

http://www.tigerboard.com/userimages/1animalhouse508.jpeg

hippie07
03-09-2008, 02:05 PM
I really hope you're not being serious when you say that.

i am - he's a bundle of nerves.. or something.

Kc61
03-09-2008, 02:05 PM
Belisle at it again...can't throw strikes, throws a lot of pitches....same old same old.

Well, we've heard all winter that his problem is bad luck. Maybe his luck will turn this year. I think he needs to mix his pitches better, fool more hitters, and make better pitches with men on base.

Even if he starts the season in the rotation, as is likely, Belisle needs to perform this year because soon there will be Cueto, Bailey, Volquez, maybe Maloney vying for his spot in the rotation.

Matt700wlw
03-09-2008, 02:07 PM
Um, Matt Belisle throws more strikes than most, at least if we're talking about his in-season norm. If you want to say he's too hittable, that's fine, but not throwing strikes isn't a problem he's got.



Today it is...and yes, he's too hittable.

Matt700wlw
03-09-2008, 02:09 PM
To his credit, the jams he's gotten himself into, he's gotten himself out of so far.

Patrick Bateman
03-09-2008, 02:13 PM
i am - he's a bundle of nerves.. or something.

Why? Fogg has sucked his entire life. He sucked as a Pirate, he sucked as a Rockie, and he'll suck as a Red.

Belisle on the other hand showed real signs of breakout last season. If you dig deeper than ERA, you'll see a guy that demonstrated very good control last year, while missing enough bats to survive as a starter. A 2.91 K/BB is nothing to sneeze at, and really that's the telling stat with Belisle. There's a reason why basically every single projection system has Belisle posting an ERA below 5.00 as a starter this season. Add in the fact that he's younger and may actually have a future here, and you have a guy that is lightyears ahead of Fogg in being able to contribute to this organziation.

Matt700wlw
03-09-2008, 02:13 PM
Much better that inning.

Patrick Bateman
03-09-2008, 02:15 PM
Today it is...and yes, he's too hittable.

Okay, seriously... 1 day in spring training is going to define his ability to throw strikes? After he showed a strong ability to do so over 30 starts last season?

Screwball
03-09-2008, 02:17 PM
i am - he's a bundle of nerves.. or something.

Belisle won't be in contention for any Cy Youngs anytime soon, but give me the guy who can actually miss a bat or six, and doesn't walk way too many guys. If you're unhappy with Belisle, then Josh Fogg ought to make you wanna :bang: until the cows come home.

Also, I think too much is being made out of Belisle's ST thus far. This is a guy who's spot in the rotation is all but etched in stone, and I gotta believe he's using this as a tune-up in preparation for the season - as he should. Keep in mind Harang got lit up last year in ST, and has gotten knocked around already this year. But I have full confidence once the season starts he'll bring his A game, and the same goes for Belisle.

M2
03-09-2008, 02:18 PM
Okay, seriously... 1 day in spring training is going to define his ability to throw strikes? After he showed a strong ability to do so over 30 starts last season?

What? You don't subscribe to the amnesiac method of talent assessment?

Matt700wlw
03-09-2008, 02:18 PM
Keep in mind Harang got lit up last year in ST, and has gotten knocked around already this year. But I have full confidence once the season starts he'll bring his A game, and the same goes for Belisle.

Harang has a track record of success...Belisle doesn't.

I don't think any of us are worried about Harang.

M2
03-09-2008, 02:19 PM
Keep in mind Harang got lit up last year in ST

And I recall a lot of some seriously ridiculous handwringing over it.

TRF
03-09-2008, 02:19 PM
So, Harang had that track record in his second ST as a starter for the Reds.

I wasn't aware of that.

Matt700wlw
03-09-2008, 02:20 PM
Belisle's day is done...Fogg's day begins.

Screwball
03-09-2008, 02:22 PM
Harang has a track record of success...Belisle doesn't.

I don't think any of us are worried about Harang.

I get that, but my point is even very, very good pitchers get knocked around in ST largely because it's nothing more than glorified practice for those who are pretty much guaranteed to be in the rotation to start the season. IMO, Belisle isn't auditioning here - he's just getting ready for the season. There's a pretty big difference.

Matt700wlw
03-09-2008, 02:23 PM
IMO, Belisle isn't auditioning here

He should be.

Matt700wlw
03-09-2008, 02:26 PM
...and there's the arm of Jay Bruce to nail the runner!

TRF
03-09-2008, 02:27 PM
He should be.

No, actually he shouldn't. What he needs to do is work out his kinks, and figure out a few things. He needs reps. He needs to stretch out his arm. He does NOT need to look over his shoulder at Affeldt or Fogg, neither of whom are very good.

Matt700wlw
03-09-2008, 02:29 PM
Troy Percival's a Ray? I missed that...

M2
03-09-2008, 02:30 PM
He should be.

Why? Because the Reds should run their club like a chicken with its head cut off?

Getting a pitcher to 300 IP and then bailing before you can reap the benefits would be horrific management. FWIW, Belisle's at where Harang was prior to the 2005 season. While I don't expect Belisle to be as good, he should be in line for better.

Matt700wlw
03-09-2008, 02:33 PM
Tomorrow:

Bailey vs Chamberlin...on TV!

Screwball
03-09-2008, 02:34 PM
Tomorrow:

Bailey vs Chamberlin...on TV!

:beerme:

PuffyPig
03-09-2008, 02:36 PM
We were assured all winter that Belisle was going to be fine this year due to FIP, DIPS and every other metric under the sun.

Don't worry. All is well.

http://www.tigerboard.com/userimages/1animalhouse508.jpeg

I'd base his likely season more on FIP, DIPS etc. rather than a few meaningless spring training innngs. Especially when his ERA this spring is 3.86.

Matt700wlw
03-09-2008, 02:37 PM
nm

Matt700wlw
03-09-2008, 02:41 PM
Fogg looking....Foggy...but limits the damage.

Ron Madden
03-09-2008, 02:49 PM
Belisle won't be in contention for any Cy Youngs anytime soon, but give me the guy who can actually miss a bat or six, and doesn't walk way too many guys. If you're unhappy with Belisle, then Josh Fogg ought to make you wanna :bang: until the cows come home.

Also, I think too much is being made out of Belisle's ST thus far. This is a guy who's spot in the rotation is all but etched in stone, and I gotta believe he's using this as a tune-up in preparation for the season - as he should. Keep in mind Harang got lit up last year in ST, and has gotten knocked around already this year. But I have full confidence once the season starts he'll bring his A game, and the same goes for Belisle.

I agree, nice post Screwball. :thumbup:

Some of these guys are just parroting the radio broadcast.

:)

Falls City Beer
03-09-2008, 02:56 PM
In a perfect world, a guy like Belisle would be auditioning for the 5th spot; unfortunately, this is the Reds, who deemed improving the rotation unimportant. Therefore, Belisle's a lock to make the rotation. I'm fine with that. But the Reds needed better.

KronoRed
03-09-2008, 02:57 PM
We're really getting upset about ST games?

Matt700wlw
03-09-2008, 03:00 PM
We're really getting upset about ST games?

Like pitchers getting their work in and getting stretched out, the fans are doing the same :)

Matt700wlw
03-09-2008, 03:13 PM
Daryl Thompson in...he of course, part of the Lopez/Kearns dud.

RedsManRick
03-09-2008, 03:15 PM
Belisle is a really solid back of the order option. He's sort of the anti-Lohse if you will. He's rarely going to dominante, if ever. But he also rarely implodes. What killed him in 2007 was his inability to get through his final inning, which meant turnover over runners to a horrific bullpen, which inflated his ERA.

If either Fogg or Affeldt are in the rotation and Belisle isn't, I'll be disappointed. He's no #3, but he'd be among the best back end guys in baseball. I hope he doesn't get penalized for what he isn't. I also hope 20-30 ST innings don't take precedence over the body of his 2007 work.

edabbs44
03-09-2008, 03:17 PM
Belisle is a really solid back of the order option. He's sort of the anti-Lohse if you will. He's rarely going to dominante, if ever. But he also rarely implodes. What killed him in 2007 was his inability to get through his final inning, which meant turnover over runners to a horrific bullpen, which inflated his ERA.

If either Fogg or Affeldt are in the rotation and Belisle isn't, I'll be disappointed. He's no #3, but he'd be among the best back end guys in baseball. I hope he doesn't get penalized for what he isn't.

Belisle is fine as a back end option. So is Fogg. So is Affeldt. The problem is that those 3 have the potential to be the 3-5 part of the rotation.

Looking at each guy to fulfill the same slot in the rotation and saying that they are fine as that role just doesn't make any sense.

Tommyjohn25
03-09-2008, 03:19 PM
Nice inning for Thompson. Strikes out the side.

Falls City Beer
03-09-2008, 03:20 PM
Belisle is a really solid back of the order option. He's sort of the anti-Lohse if you will. He's rarely going to dominante, if ever. But he also rarely implodes. What killed him in 2007 was his inability to get through his final inning, which meant turnover over runners to a horrific bullpen, which inflated his ERA.

If either Fogg or Affeldt are in the rotation and Belisle isn't, I'll be disappointed. He's no #3, but he'd be among the best back end guys in baseball. I hope he doesn't get penalized for what he isn't.

I think it's abundantly obvious that Affeldt and Fogg are worse options than Belisle, but what I don't think is obvious (to most) is that for the Reds to be a good team, they can't rely on a guy like Belisle being their third best starter.

I can't count how many times I saw "I think the rotation will be deep" this offseason. Oh, who am I kidding? Every offseason since this site was created I've seen that.

Matt700wlw
03-09-2008, 03:27 PM
A win today with a Brewers loss..and the Reds are in first place... :p:

M2
03-09-2008, 03:36 PM
I think it's abundantly obvious that Affeldt and Fogg are worse options than Belisle, but what I don't think is obvious (to most) is that for the Reds to be a good team, they can't rely on a guy like Belisle being their third best starter.

I can't count how many times I saw "I think the rotation will be deep" this offseason. Oh, who am I kidding? Every offseason since this site was created I've seen that.

You're right that the Reds haven't developed a "vanquish" strategy. Yet I think this is potentially a better "defend the city walls" strategy than previous seasons.

I don't yet have an opinion on where the W-L totals will fall because there's too many unknowns at the moment (starting lineup, bench, rotation and bullpen), but Belisle being average, Fogg being only mildly below average and a kid being at least average could net the club 80-85 wins if the other parts of the team are solid. I'm not particularly sold that will happen, but it's not like past seasons where everybody in the rotation (or nearly everybody) was headed for a poor season. This rotation may not kill the club all by itself. While it's far short of a rotation that might elevate the club, it's still a step in the right direction.

Affeldt in the rotation is where I think the wretching ought to start, but I'm becoming more and more convinced that isn't in the cards.

Patrick Bateman
03-09-2008, 03:40 PM
I think it's abundantly obvious that Affeldt and Fogg are worse options than Belisle, but what I don't think is obvious (to most) is that for the Reds to be a good team, they can't rely on a guy like Belisle being their third best starter.



That's pretty well true. I've argued countless times that as a backend option, Belisle can be fairly valuable while he's cheap and improving. But even with his benefits, his skill level does not justify being one of the best 3 starters on the team. Since the Reds couldn't secure that need through trade, the 3rd starter needs to come from the young guys, which is probably a stretch at this point in their careers. But in Volquez and Cueto, there is potential to find that pretty quickly.

OnBaseMachine
03-09-2008, 03:46 PM
Daryl Thompson pitched just the one inning but it was an impressive one. 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 K.

M2
03-09-2008, 03:47 PM
Rocco Baldelli's injury leaves the Rays short on OF help and long on guys who are likely only realistic options at DH most of the time (Floyd, Gomes, Baldelli) or the DL. Hopper and Freel playing today may prove valuable should the Reds want to move one as they cut down the roster.

The Beelzebubbas at some point are going to have to admit to themselves that Baldelli will never be healthy and plan accordingly.

I'm all for moving an OF their way, though I doubt Tampa Bay would be interested in what the Reds have got (though I can see a case for why Ken Griffey Jr. would be a solid fit for that franchise) and even if a guy like Freel grabbed their interest I doubt the Reds could wrangle the arm I'd want (J.P. Howell).

OnBaseMachine
03-09-2008, 03:53 PM
I'm all for moving an OF their way, though I doubt Tampa Bay would be interested in what the Reds have got (though I can see a case for why Ken Griffey Jr. would be a solid fit for that franchise) and even if a guy like Freel grabbed their interest I doubt the Reds could wrangle the arm I'd want (J.P. Howell).

Funny you should mention targeting J.P. Howell...I said the same thing a couple hours ago in another thread.

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1567343&postcount=257

He's got a career 3.20 ERA and 9.49 K/9 in 346.2 career minor league innings. He also spent 51 innings in the majors with the Rays last season and while his ERA wasn't pretty (7.59), he still managed to strikeout 49 batters in those 51 innings. I think he would be a solid acquisition who could settle in as a No. 4 starter within the next year or two. I'd trade Freel or Hopper + a minor prospect like Jordan Smith for him.

lollipopcurve
03-09-2008, 04:00 PM
I think the Rays have been auditioning Edwin Jackson for the Reds. Both of his starts have been vs Cincy. And he failed miserably today. Personally, I'd like to see all trading chips on deck for any possible deal for a catcher, if one can be had (Gerald Laird?)...

VR
03-09-2008, 04:10 PM
just tuned in to the game thread....without a box score I'm guessing Belisle have up about 6 earned in 3 innings, and will be released after the game?:all_cohol

M2
03-09-2008, 04:11 PM
Funny you should mention targeting J.P. Howell...I said the same thing a couple hours ago in another thread.

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1567343&postcount=257

He's got a career 3.20 ERA and 9.49 K/9 in 346.2 career minor league innings. He also spent 51 innings in the majors with the Rays last season and while his ERA wasn't pretty (7.59), he still managed to strikeout 49 batters in those 51 innings. I think he would be a solid acquisition who could settle in as a No. 4 starter within the next year or two. I'd trade Freel or Hopper + a minor prospect like Jordan Smith for him.

Yeah, I've liked Howell for years. The Royals and DRays pushed him too quickly, but I think he's going to outperform a lot of the more touted arms around him.

Unfortunately I'm not convinced he can be had for the kind of price you're talking about.


I think the Rays have been auditioning Edwin Jackson for the Reds. Both of his starts have been vs Cincy. And he failed miserably today. Personally, I'd like to see all trading chips on deck for any possible deal for a catcher, if one can be had (Gerald Laird?)...

I've never made any secret about my disdain for Jackson's game. The Rays can try to start him, but I don't think he's got any meaningful future outside the pen, if there.

I like the way you're thinking on the catcher front, and Laird would be a stellar target.

Matt700wlw
03-09-2008, 04:11 PM
just tuned in to the game thread....without a box score I'm guessing Belisle have up about 6 earned in 3 innings, and will be released after the game?:all_cohol

1 unearned run....but he made it difficult on himself. His final inning was quick and easy, though.

edabbs44
03-09-2008, 04:16 PM
just tuned in to the game thread....without a box score I'm guessing Belisle have up about 6 earned in 3 innings, and will be released after the game?:all_cohol

It was Upton and the backups today for TB. If he had a bad outing it would have been really bad.

VR
03-09-2008, 04:20 PM
I think Belisle will be one of the most productive #3's in the league this year. I guarantee he will not produce like Brandon Webb, however.

Matt700wlw
03-09-2008, 04:21 PM
I think Belisle will be one of the most productive #3's in the league this year. I guarantee he will not produce like Brandon Webb, however.

Unacceptable then ;) Webb or bust!!!

Superdude
03-09-2008, 04:40 PM
Belisle's already a solid #5 with the upside for more. The guy's stats are eerily similar to a pre-breakout Aaron Harang. Isn't that alone enough to guarantee him a rotation spot when Josh Fogg is the second option?

RedsManRick
03-09-2008, 04:49 PM
Belisle is fine as a back end option. So is Fogg. So is Affeldt. The problem is that those 3 have the potential to be the 3-5 part of the rotation.

Looking at each guy to fulfill the same slot in the rotation and saying that they are fine as that role just doesn't make any sense.

Well, you work with what you have. You don't deny them a rotation spot simply because it has the #3 label instead of the #5. You aren't competing for the #3 spot in the rotation, otherwise nobody would win. You compete for the right to be a starter and then you get slotted in as appropriate.

edabbs44
03-09-2008, 05:00 PM
Well, you work with what you have. You don't deny them a rotation spot simply because it has the #3 label instead of the #5. You aren't competing for the #3 spot in the rotation, otherwise nobody would win. You compete for the right to be a starter and then you get slotted in as appropriate.

It was more of an indictment of the FO than it was of Belisle.

*BaseClogger*
03-09-2008, 05:28 PM
Yeah, I've liked Howell for years. The Royals and DRays pushed him too quickly, but I think he's going to outperform a lot of the more touted arms around him.

I'm not sure how highly regarded he is, but I am most impressed by the Ray's Andy Sonnanstine. Minor league career: 7.67 H/9, 0.69 HR/9, 1.36 BB/9, 8.42 K/9. Terrific control and misses enough bats. Hopefully, his value is down from last year's audition with the Ray's in 130.2 innings: a 5.85 ERA (!), but peripherals were still solid--1.79 BB/9 and 6.68 K/9. His 10.40 H/9 can likely be attributed to a .328 BABIP...

EDIT-Oh, and he is from Ohio! Kent State Golden Flash...


I like the way you're thinking on the catcher front, and Laird would be a stellar target.

As long as the Reds have Ross, who we know is better against LH pitching, I don't see a need for Laird. He has a career .616 OPS against RH pitching and a .815 OPS against Lh pitching...