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gonelong
03-23-2008, 11:17 PM
Ok, time for Gonelong's 7th annual Reds Win prediction thread. Similar to years past my requests are minimal:

1. Give a number of Ws you project.
2. Make the prediction as honestly as you can. (Imagine you were betting your house one your estimate being correct.)
3) I will be **AT** the game again this year. (thanks again, to my brother!) Once I return from the game I'll compute the average and post it as the "Redszone ORG consensus".

I think it would be interesting if someone would start a similar thread on the Sundeck and we can have a friendly competition between the ORG and Sundeck.

Here are the historical prediction threads, if anyone wants to check on their past performance:
2007 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=55913) - RZ Ws: 81.40 Actual: 72 PTHG: 75 - Pretty Optimistic
2006 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=44503) - RZ Ws: 76.66 Actual: 80 PTHG: 76 - Slightly Pesimistic
2005 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=33108) - RZ Ws: 84.67 Actual: 73 PTHG: 75 - Wildy Optimistic
2004 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=21619) - RZ Ws: 76.82 Actual: 76 PTHG: 67 - Right On
2003 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9414) - RZ Ws: 87.88 Actual: 69 PTHG: 63 - Wildly Optimistic
2002 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4202) - RZ Ws: 79.71 Actual: 78 PTHG: 75 - Slightly Optimistic

My prediction for 2008 prediction of Reds Wins is 80 Ws.

GL

dougdirt
03-23-2008, 11:17 PM
84 wins

RedsManRick
03-23-2008, 11:19 PM
79 wins

reds44
03-23-2008, 11:22 PM
81 wins

RFS62
03-23-2008, 11:23 PM
86 Wins

Jpup
03-23-2008, 11:26 PM
I was very optimistic last year for some reason and I am less so this year so I will say 83 and third place in the central behind the Cubs and Brewers unfortunately.

wheels
03-23-2008, 11:28 PM
74 wins.

The pitching's better, but overall the roster is a shambles.

OnBaseMachine
03-23-2008, 11:31 PM
I'm feeling optimistic about this team just like I do every year, but this time it just feels different. We have two solid starting pitchers at the top of the rotation and two kids with dynamite arms. This is going to be the best rotation we've had since probably the early 90's or longer IMO. The offense is good enough to score around 800 runs; The loss of Hamilton hurt but the improvement of EdE, Votto, and eventually Bruce will offset the loss of Hamilton. The bullpen is still a big question mark but Francisco Cordero helps tremendously. With Cordero in the fold, another solid season from Burton and Weathers, the development of Bill Bray and the arrival of Josh Roenicke, the bullpen improves two months into the season after Stanton is cut loose. Where does all that put us?

86 wins.

RedlegJake
03-23-2008, 11:32 PM
85 wins

LoganBuck
03-23-2008, 11:58 PM
70

pedro
03-24-2008, 12:08 AM
83 Wins. I'm playing that number until they do it.

Last year that didn't work out so well.

Despite that, I remain optimistic and unlike recent seasons I honestly do think this team could really surprise us and win even more. Not that I don't realize that would most likely take good years from all the rookies as well as health and consistent production from everyone else, including the bullpen. It would also require more than we can likely expect from the current core of catchers.

Admittedly, I know that's an amount of good fortune that doesn't often grace any team during a single season and that with just average luck and a few key injuries this team could really struggle.

Either way, I do think the Reds have a lot more talent than they did in any of the last 5 seasons, so at least there are reasons to remain interested as fan, and hey, with the season starting next week that's not so bad.

SirFelixCat
03-24-2008, 12:17 AM
82 Wins.

I really want to go more, but too many 'ifs' and I think I'm being optimistic as is. Man, this is seriously the most excited for a season that I've been in a few years. The young kids should be a LOT of fun to watch this year!

HumnHilghtFreel
03-24-2008, 12:19 AM
Although this year I'm more excited with the young guys around, I'm less optimistic about win total... I'll say 80 Wins

MWM
03-24-2008, 12:23 AM
73-89

Blitz Dorsey
03-24-2008, 12:26 AM
85 wins.

Deepred05
03-24-2008, 12:37 AM
88 wins, based on the addition of Cordero.

Patrick Bateman
03-24-2008, 12:39 AM
79

KronoRed
03-24-2008, 12:40 AM
76-86.

Still about the same team that lost 90 last year.

Tornon
03-24-2008, 12:41 AM
82

Phhhl
03-24-2008, 12:43 AM
90

Reds Fanatic
03-24-2008, 12:45 AM
83 wins

Caveat Emperor
03-24-2008, 12:49 AM
74 Wins.

Unproven starting pitching, middling middle relief, no bench, and the possibility existing of multiple months with Corey Patterson manning center field all make me cautious about the upcoming season.

RBA
03-24-2008, 12:52 AM
88 wins based on the subtraction of Narron.

jmcclain19
03-24-2008, 01:08 AM
80 wins. Dusty holds them back from breaking .500.

WMR
03-24-2008, 01:11 AM
80 wins. Dusty holds them back from breaking .500.

I with ya. 80 sounds pretty good to me. Perhaps a tad optimistic.

MartyFan
03-24-2008, 01:29 AM
82 wins

BoydsOfSummer
03-24-2008, 03:10 AM
81-81

But like Pedro said, I think this team has real potential to surprise depending on those young starters.

pedro
03-24-2008, 03:35 AM
74 Wins.

Unproven starting pitching, middling middle relief, no bench, and the possibility existing of multiple months with Corey Patterson manning center field all make me cautious about the upcoming season.

Even if all the questionable stuff you mentioned goes well, if Harang or Dunn were to get hurt or Phillips and Edwin don't do well, not to mention Griffey who you just can't count on at this point, they could have a lot of problems.

OTOH, look at the roster of the 1990 team and tell me they weren't an improbable story.

MrCinatit
03-24-2008, 04:35 AM
78

Topcat
03-24-2008, 04:46 AM
89 wins and 73 loses is the rerecord of the new flag ship future Red's. Simple reason. rejuvenated pitching and new found hope that spreads threw out the whole dug out. Votto's 2nd half season Homer's 2nd half season after call up contribution and most of all the unknown wild card addition yet unknown that comes aboard.

edabbs44
03-24-2008, 05:43 AM
77 wins

kbrake
03-24-2008, 06:21 AM
84

mth123
03-24-2008, 06:47 AM
Volquez steps up and gives the team a legit number 2. Harang and Arroyo provide more of the same. Cueto struggles from time to time but still ok at number 4 and provides reason to believe he'll be better in 2009. Number 5 is a revolving door, but overall the starting pitching is above average. The offense gets a boost from Votto. Patterson is better than expected. The Middle IF suffers a drop-off from 2007, but Keppinger plays enough to provide a boost. Dunn hits 50 bombs and is more mobile in the field. Griffey declines a bit and looks even worse on defense. Jay Bruce is blocked and spends much of the year in AAA. EdE settles in as an average 3B. The catching situation is horrible. The Bullpen prevents this team from getting to the play-offs. Stanton proves last year wasn't an anomoly. Weathers declines sharply. Burton and Bray move from prospects to suspects. Coffey rebounds a bit. Roenicke and Viola arrive too late. Cordero is good, but too often leads disappear prior to him getting in the game. They finish above .500 and feel like a team on the rise.

84 Wins.

RedFanAlways1966
03-24-2008, 07:03 AM
75 wins. Hope I am wrong. :D

rotnoid
03-24-2008, 07:11 AM
This rotation is improved vastly over what we've been seeing, IMO. The young guys keep them in it until September, but may not have the experience or stamina to get over the hump. Still, I think they win more than lose.

Put me down for 83 wins.

cincrazy
03-24-2008, 07:20 AM
82 wins.

The Reds struggle out of the gate with the platoon of Hopper and Patterson not working in center, and with the likes of Stanton getting banged around in the bullpen. The Reds come to their senses, promote Jay Bruce and Josh Roenicke amongst others, Volquez and Cueto become more consistent during the second half of the year, and the Reds use a blazing second half of the season to finish over .500 and give a good glimpse of what's to come in 2009.

GoReds
03-24-2008, 07:38 AM
85 wins. Sets them up nicely for a move in 2009.

Caveat Emperor
03-24-2008, 07:47 AM
Even if all the questionable stuff you mentioned goes well, if Harang or Dunn were to get hurt or Phillips and Edwin don't do well, not to mention Griffey who you just can't count on at this point, they could have a lot of problems.

The Reds are cooked if Harang, Arroyo, Dunn, or Griffey miss games. But, in fairness, there aren't a lot of mid-market teams that have the depth to replace top-talent that goes on the shelf.

The other point you raise about Phillips and Edwin is also worth repeating -- if those two don't find a way to hit LHP better, its going to be a long season.

Cyclone792
03-24-2008, 07:50 AM
83 wins.

First time I've projected a better than .500 record since 2000.

cumberlandreds
03-24-2008, 07:55 AM
78 The Reds will have basically three rookies in the rotation for most of the season and that will keep the win total under the 500 mark. But they along with Bruce and Votto will give the Reds a boost into a very good 2009 season.

mbgrayson
03-24-2008, 08:06 AM
84 wins

dabvu2498
03-24-2008, 08:22 AM
77 wins

RollyInRaleigh
03-24-2008, 08:27 AM
84 wins.

Heath
03-24-2008, 08:29 AM
77 wins

Is this before or after Siena smoked the 'Dores?? ;)

Put me down for 85. It may win the division.

Redhook
03-24-2008, 08:36 AM
85 wins. First time I've been optimistic about the team since 2000.

dabvu2498
03-24-2008, 08:39 AM
Is this before or after Siena smoked the 'Dores?? ;)

Haha.

flyer85
03-24-2008, 08:50 AM
77 wins as I see a slightly downgraded offense and slightly better pitching.

Raisor
03-24-2008, 08:53 AM
It's been kewl going back and reading all the predictions over the last 6 years.

During that time, the Reds have averaged 75 wins a season. I'm thinking that they're about 5 wins better then the average Reds team.

Sooooo...

I'm prediciting 80 win season. Heck, Ill bump it to 81, just because:

81-81

lollipopcurve
03-24-2008, 09:01 AM
I do not have a good feeling at the moment.

79-83

redsrule2500
03-24-2008, 09:09 AM
Prediction: 78 wins

what the crap is 'pthg'???????

edit: nevermind, I'm guessing it's Pythagorean....wouldn't that be "Pyth" or something then? :p

Roy Tucker
03-24-2008, 09:15 AM
The Reds are way past due to surprise. The past bad karma gets washed away, they catch fire out of the gate, and surprise everyone.

92 wins.

Raisor
03-24-2008, 09:22 AM
Prediction: 78 wins

what the crap is 'pthg'???????

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=342

http://icanhascheezburger.files.wordpress.com/2007/11/funny-pictures-pythagora-cat-box.jpg

CaiGuy
03-24-2008, 09:36 AM
Put me down for 85.

It won't quite get them into the playoffs, but there should be a lot of improvement, setting them up for the next couple of years.

TRF
03-24-2008, 09:37 AM
89 wins based in large part to a now weakened Brewers rotation featuring 5 RH starters. The Cards look to really stink, the Astros look abysmal and the Pirates, oh my, the Pirates. That leaves the Cubs as the main threat in the central. And they have pitching issues as well with Dempster rejoining the rotation, and the closer kind of up for grabs at this point.

89 wins.

Johnny Footstool
03-24-2008, 09:50 AM
91 wins.

redsfan30
03-24-2008, 09:53 AM
84 wins.

pahster
03-24-2008, 09:53 AM
78 wins. Assuming Dunn is extended and barring any catastrophic injuries, I expect the Reds to be quite good in 2009.

nate
03-24-2008, 09:55 AM
81.

sonny
03-24-2008, 09:56 AM
put me down for 76 wins. But next year will be in the high 80's.

Puffy
03-24-2008, 10:26 AM
78-84.

Joseph
03-24-2008, 10:30 AM
84 Wins and a Central Division crown in the worst division in baseball...or the most competitive depending on how you look at it.

TheBurn
03-24-2008, 11:30 AM
85-77... good enough to win the Central. :cool:

Highlifeman21
03-24-2008, 11:36 AM
78-84.

Mark me down for one of these.

At best we're a .500 team, and I don't think we're worse than last year, so while I wanted to go with 76 or 77, I'll give this team an optimistic benefit of the doubt and go with 78 wins.

This team still has too many weaknesses to compete, let alone win.

LincolnparkRed
03-24-2008, 11:43 AM
79-83 our interleague schedule is pretty tough, and that can't help overcome the improvements I think have been made to the pitching staff.

Screwball
03-24-2008, 11:44 AM
80-82.

membengal
03-24-2008, 11:54 AM
So much unknown, so much could go right or wrong.

Boringly, will split the difference at 81-81, and would not be suprised to see it +/- five from there. Anywhere from 76-86 wins.

New Fever
03-24-2008, 11:54 AM
88 wins

MississippiRed
03-24-2008, 12:35 PM
78 wins

Guacarock
03-24-2008, 12:46 PM

BuckeyeRedleg
03-24-2008, 12:59 PM
83-79

redsrule2500
03-24-2008, 01:21 PM
Ok, time for Gonelong's 7th annual Reds Win prediction thread. Similar to years past my requests are minimal:

1. Give a number of Ws you project.
2. Make the prediction as honestly as you can. (Imagine you were betting your house one your estimate being correct.)
3) I will be **AT** the game again this year. (thanks again, to my brother!) Once I return from the game I'll compute the average and post it as the "Redszone ORG consensus".

I think it would be interesting if someone would start a similar thread on the Sundeck and we can have a friendly competition between the ORG and Sundeck.

Here are the historical prediction threads, if anyone wants to check on their past performance:
2007 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=55913) - RZ Ws: 81.40 Actual: 72 PTHG: 75 - Pretty Optimistic
2006 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=44503) - RZ Ws: 76.66 Actual: 80 PTHG: 76 - Slightly Pesimistic
2005 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=33108) - RZ Ws: 84.67 Actual: 73 PTHG: 75 - Wildy Optimistic
2004 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=21619) - RZ Ws: 76.82 Actual: 76 PTHG: 67 - Right On
2003 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9414) - RZ Ws: 87.88 Actual: 69 PTHG: 63 - Wildly Optimistic
2002 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4202) - RZ Ws: 79.71 Actual: 78 PTHG: 75 - Slightly Optimistic

My prediction for 2008 prediction of Reds Wins is 80 Ws.

GL

Another semi-interesting note: Reds Zone has been averaging about 11,000 new topics per year since the second year of your prediction thread. Take a look at those links! http://us.i1.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/i/mesg/emoticons7/26.gif And then this year is 66,000 even...wow!

Strikes Out Looking
03-24-2008, 01:25 PM
86 wins due to a better bullpen, better starters, lousy division and no Narron. Wild Card is Dusty--and if they don't win 86, I say fire him.

Reds/Flyers Fan
03-24-2008, 01:26 PM
90 wins.

NL Central champs

boognish
03-24-2008, 02:02 PM
I'd like to defer until the fringes of the roster are settled (and more importantly whether Votto starts at 1B), but where is the fun in that?

76 wins. This bullpen could be horrific again with the wrong decisions/usage patterns, the offense--after park adjustment--will be below average even with a boost from EE, and improvement from the starting pitching won't be quite enough. There are too many bad pitchers on the staff (Stanton, Fogg, Affeldt) getting innings and Cueto and Volquez can't be expected to pick up all of those guys' slack.

I agree with the earlier sentiment: if Dunn or Harang miss any time whatsoever the wheels could come off.

*BaseClogger*
03-24-2008, 02:08 PM
78-84

could be about 84 wins with a more optimal lineup and roster configuartion... But I guess it could be 72 wins if Dusty didn't know how to manage the clubhouse ;)...

vaticanplum
03-24-2008, 02:35 PM
79 wins.

Mario-Rijo
03-24-2008, 04:08 PM
83 wins and that's being cautiously optimistic for me this season.

WVRedsFan
03-24-2008, 04:16 PM
86 Wins

RichRed
03-24-2008, 04:16 PM
76 wins.

I'd be curious to know which posters have been the best prognosticators since gonelong started doing this.

(P.S. I don't think I'm near the top.)

bucksfan
03-24-2008, 04:18 PM
I am going with 85. More of an upside to that # this year, and less of a fear for the downside IMO.

oneupper
03-24-2008, 04:36 PM
80 Wins.

I was going to say something about Dusty...but I prefered to just lower my number.

Will M
03-24-2008, 05:45 PM
85-77

Scrap Irony
03-24-2008, 06:05 PM
82-80

The starting pitching's much better, but the pen is still weak. Offensively, they're not great, but they're not bad either.

Meh, in other words.

Boss-Hog
03-24-2008, 06:41 PM
82 wins

M2
03-24-2008, 06:42 PM
The Reds still have a lot of moving parts with just one week left in ST. I might not agree with this in seven days, but ...

80-82

deltachi8
03-24-2008, 06:43 PM
77 Wins. I started higher then remembered the reds will still have (most likely) Josh Fogg in the rotation and OJT for Cueto, EV and possibly Bailey.

I think the bullpen is better but not drastically so.

The team will be better than last and I think could be a seriousl playoff contender in 09.

Falls City Beer
03-24-2008, 06:49 PM
Everyone's taken my number. :confused: I don't know: 81

Red in Chicago
03-24-2008, 06:53 PM
78 despite a very ugly month of june