Trade Rumor: Dunn and Griffey to go?

[scounts22]

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/8086082?MSNHPHMA

Discuss.

[Nasty_Boy]

This really isn't anything new. We knew that if the Reds were in contention both players would be here until the end of the season, if not they would try to move them. I still think the Reds should resign Dunn, but they should try to trade Jr around the deadline.

[BLEEDS]

Agree 100% on Junior. His time is up, and he won't EVER be as tradeable as he is now. Every day it only gets worse.

Dunn should be extended, and HOPEFULLY this was part of the WK-Castellini problem, which can be solved now with Jocketty in tow. Castellini seemed to gush over this guy after their dinner date. Why it's taken this long is beyond me, and smells of WK trying to hedge his bets, when Cast seemingly wanted to go all-in.

With all the rest of the CORE young and relatively inexpensive - BP, EE, Votto, Kepp, Cueto, Voltar, and Bruce/Bailey in the wings - you can EASILY afford to extend a 28 year old Dunn for 4-5 years and not even flinch, ESPECIALLY with Griffey's Salary off the books.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[bgwilly31]

Its time for griffey to go. Bring in bruce. :)

[ChatterRed]

I'm ready for both to go. Bring up Bruce. And the other $25 million + saved can be used for 2 other OFers.

If we're not in contention, I fully expect both to be gone and either the OF be filled by those trades or in the offseason free agency period.

[Degenerate39]

One will go and one will stay. IMO Dunn will be the one that stays because he's more productive right now and younger.

[ChatterRed]

One will go and one will stay. IMO Dunn will be the one that stays because he's more productive right now and younger.

Younger maybe.......

[Fullboat]

I would like to see both go.I really hate the shift every team employs against them and it working to
perfection

P.S. Throw in Grande who keeps mentioning the shift.

[DTCromer]

I think this organization is in a Jackpot-Win a Free Ticket (aka win-win).

In other words, if he trade Dunn, we get rid of his contract for some players which is the jackpot.

If we just let him walk at the end of the year, at least we get his salary to play with.

[Degenerate39]

Younger maybe.......

Honestly what is it with all the Dunn bashing. If anyone should be blamed for the Reds losing it's Griffey Jr. not Adam Dunn. I hate to say it because I've loved watching Griffey play since I was about 8. Out of the 8 years that Griffey's been here he's stayed heathly the first season he was here? And for the most part last year and I hope he stays healthy this year. But the Reds used that money on Griffey when they could've spent it on pitching. Everyone says the Reds haven't won with Dunn but Griffey's been here longer and he may be a big cause they havent won.

[BUTLER REDSFAN]

For what its worth on his show today, Tracy Jones is saying both may be gone a lot sooner that what people may think.

[goreds2]

Its time for griffey to go. Bring in bruce. :)

Last week, someone called in WLW saying Bruce has been splitting time playing left and right field thinking Griffey or Dunn may go to open up a spot for him.

[757690]

Not sure what they will do, but I would keep Griffey and trade Dunn.

Trading Dunn means Bruce is in left, and hopefully batting either 3rd or 4th. Griffey is still productive and is much better in the field than Dunn, but just not the best option for batting 3rd. I think he would make a much better #5 hitter than Dunn.

Dunn is done in my opinion. He never was as productive as his stats mislead people, and he has gotten worst in key areas every year for the past four years.

People always bring up the 40 HRs, 100 RBI's and 100 runs scored that Dunn produces. That is good, but he is the worst at run production of any active 40 HR hitter. (actually Soriano had a slightly worse 40 home run year, but that was a lead off hitter.) The average RBI's for a recent 40 HR (between 40 and 43 HR) hitter is 125 RBI's. Dunn averages 100 RBI's. The average runs scored is 110. Dunn averages 103. Dunn produced 32 runs a year less than the average 40 HR hitter. That is a lot. Some of that is the team around him, but that can't explain such a big difference.

The other stats that are telling are his stats in crucial situations. They have been on the steady decline and are terrible this year. Here are the numbers:



2 out RISP Late and Close With Two Strikes
2004 .264 .459 .556 1.015 .323 .417 .720 1.137 .151 .270 .284 .554
2005 .231 .512 .481 .993 .200 .341 .480 .821 .160 .273 .339 .611
2006 .246 .410 .554 .963 .237 .389 .474 .863 .127 .246 .288 .534
2007 .254 .472 .381 .853 .241 .355 .456 .811 .153 .291 .295 .586
2008 .000 .429 .000 .429 .196 .379 .353 .732 .125 .271 .225 .496

A clear steady decline. Actually it is very similar to another slugger, Andrew Jones, who also got a lot of walks and not a lot of hits. Probably the result of pitchers noticing that they can pitch to these guys as long as they don't make a mistake.

I put the two strikes stats to show how weak Dunn is with two strikes. Nearly, if not all middle of the lineup run producers have at least a .600 OPS with two strikes and many have a .700 OPS. Dunn is over 100 points below the average of 3-5 hitters. His numbers with two strikes are closer to Castro's then they are to most 3-5 hitters.

All that and his horrible defense is why I say trade Dunn and get Bruce in LF batting 3rd or 4th everyday.

[OUReds]

The sample size for last year's close and late was a whopping 79 ABs, for 2 out RISP it's all of 63. This year the sample is small enough to be laughable. You conclusions about a general decline based on those numbers are wildly premature.

I suppose he might be the least productive 100 RBI 40 HR player in baseball, but that puts him at the bottom of a very small and exclusive list.

[BLEEDS]

The sample size for last year's close and late was a whopping 79 ABs, for 2 out RISP it's all of 63. This year the sample is small enough to be laughable. You conclusions about a general decline based on those numbers are wildly premature.


and 757690 also TOTALLY disregards place in the lineup (e.g. 5) and other factors - such as NO PROTECTION which increases his OBP (especially in "2 out RISP" situations, because pitchers will pitch around him) but decreases production.

Runs Scored? SERIOUSLY? Now you're dumping on him because OTHER PEOPLE CAN'T DRIVE HIM IN?!?! SERIOUSLY? SERIOUSLY?!?!?!?
100 runs is nice, but HARDLY within his control. I don't think many people point to his 100 runs. They point to his 100-110+ BB's ever year.

I also fail to see how "2 Strikes" is considered a "Critical Situation". That's total BS. I think RISP and "Late and Close" are just a TAD more "Critical". In that regard, his numbers have shown a clear and steady INCREASE since his "blip" year in 2005, in his AVERAGE, which is what ALL of the Dunn bashers bash on most - they want him to HIT more and WALK less.
And, with all of that said, he's had ONE year of sub .950 OPS with RISP and 2 outs over this span. ONE. This also is the year he set his CAREER BEST in RBI's and second best BATTING AVERAGE (.264 v .266 in 2004). SO, he's cutting down on the power, but getting more HITS, and driving more RUNS IN. Isn't that what you bashers want?!?!?!?

Why don't you focus on more IMPORTANT things - like putting him in a better POSITION to:

a) get more AB"s - which will get him on base more. More RBI, more HR, more Runs, more EVERYTHING.

b) put better hitters in front of him, with more OBP - which leads to more RBI opportunities. PROBABLY putting the league leader in GIDP's isn't going to help that much.

c) put better hitters behind him - which will give him more protection, give him better pitches to see, and - gasp - get him DRIVEN IN MORE (i.e. RUNS SCORED).

No, let's focus on annual deviations in day/night splits on the road, versus left handers in the 4th inning of blowouts. And, let's bat him lower in the lineup because heaven forbid we want him to get more at bats then guys who can't OBP over .300.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[757690]

The sample size for last year's close and late was a whopping 79 ABs, for 2 out RISP it's all of 63. This year the sample is small enough to be laughable. You conclusions about a general decline based on those numbers are wildly premature.

I suppose he might be the least productive 100 RBI 40 HR player in baseball, but that puts him at the bottom of a very small and exclusive list.

08 numbers are silly, I admit, I just put them in there to show how incredibly bad he has been this first month. I agree that they will get better.

However, small sample size has as much to do with the time it covers as the number of at bat. The reason why small sample sizes are deceiving is because players go on streaks, so if you catch someone in a month long slump or hot streak, then the numbers are deceiving.

These are stats over an entire year. They may be small in number, but they are the most accurate representation of a players ability in those circumstances available, and they show how well a player did over an entire season, though all of his slumps and hot streaks.

[757690]

and 757690 also TOTALLY disregards place in the lineup (e.g. 5) and other factors - such as NO PROTECTION which increases his OBP (especially in "2 out RISP" situations, because pitchers will pitch around him) but decreases production.

I did say in the post that the team around him does account for something, but not everything, especially over a four year period.


Runs Scored? SERIOUSLY? Now you're dumping on him because OTHER PEOPLE CAN'T DRIVE HIM IN?!?! SERIOUSLY? SERIOUSLY?!?!?!?
100 runs is nice, but HARDLY within his control. I don't think many people point to his 100 runs. They point to his 100-110+ BB's ever year.

I pointed that out to show that his walks do not lead to extra runs. Anyway, runs scored and RBI's are equally dependent on the team around a hitter. If I am going to include RBI's, I need to include Runs Scored to be thorough.


I also fail to see how "2 Strikes" is considered a "Critical Situation". That's total BS. I think RISP and "Late and Close" are just a TAD more "Critical".

I said in the post that I included that only to make another point. I just put it in the same code for neatness. And I think being able to hit with two strikes is crucial for a middle of the lineup hitter, especially one that takes lots of pitches.

To be honest, stats are not the best way to judge Dunn anyway. I think the best way is to watch him play. Honestly, when he comes up in crucial situations, what are you thinking? What are you feeling? When Lance Berkman, or Derek Lee, or Matt Holiday, or Chipper Jones, or Chase Utley, or Albert Pujols, or David Ortiz, or A-Rod, or Manny Ramirez, or Vlad Guererro, or Travis Hafner, or Mags Ordonez, or Jim Thome, or David Wright or any other solid run producer comes up against the Reds in crucial situations, what are thinking and feeling?

I am not a Dunn hater, I like him, he is productive, and if he made around half as much money, and was batting 2nd or 7th, I would want to keep him.
But he is playing the role of a top run producer and he is not, and is occupying the space of someone who will be. That and his horrible defense is why I think he should be traded.

[OUReds]

These are stats over an entire year. They may be small in number, but they are the most accurate representation of a players ability in those circumstances available, and they show how well a player did over an entire season, though all of his slumps and hot streaks.

Breadth does not equal depth. A small sample is a small sample no matter how long the timeline you pull it from is.

There is so much talk here about what Adam doesn't do, or what he should be doing, how about a bit of appreciation for what he DOES do.

Since 1980, 28 long years, there have been exactly 4 other Reds players to drive in 100 runs, they did it exactly 6 times.

1985 – Dave Parker (125)
1986 – Dave Parker (116)
1987 – Eric Davis (100)
1989 – Eric Davis (101)
1990 – Greg Vaughn (118)
2000 – Ken Griffey Jr. (118)

Again since 1980, there have been 5 Reds players to score 100 runs in a season. They've done it all of 8 times.

1987 – Eric Davis (120)
1996 – Barry Larkin (117)
1999 – Sean Casey (103)
1999 – Barry Larkin (108)
1999 – Greg Vaughn (104)
2000 – Ken Griffey Jr. (100)
2004 – Sean Casey (101)
2007 – Brandon Phillips (107)

Number of players with 100 run 100 RBI seasons? Three, Vaughn, Davis, and Griffey. Each accomplished that feat exactly once.

Dunn has done it 3 of the last 4 years. In every conceivable statistic measurement that matters, RC/27, OPS, Dunn is our most valuable offensive force. Without him (coupled with Griffey's age related decline), we better be darn sure Bruce and Votto are all that we think they are and even more, because the offence goes from average to bad faster then you can say "subjective analysis".

Edit: Half as much? really? I'd like Adam to sign for 6.5 million per year also, but I live in a world where he is likely to be paid more then a fifth starter.

[757690]

Breadth does not equal depth. A small sample is a small sample no matter how long the timeline you pull it from is.

Simply not true. The accuracy of a statistical sample is dependent on both the actual quantity, and the time duration from which it was taken. If you own a hardware store, and you sell 100 lawnmowers one year, then you sell 95 the next, then 90 the next, and then 85 the next, you would clearly conclude that your sales of lawnmowers are down. If you were to sell 100 nails one day, then 95 the next, then 90 the next, then 85, you would conclude very little, since it was only four days.



There is so much talk here about what Adam doesn't do, or what he should be doing, how about a bit of appreciation for what he DOES do.

Since 1980, 28 long years, there have been exactly 4 other Reds players to drive in 100 runs, they did it exactly 6 times.

1985 – Dave Parker (125)
1986 – Dave Parker (116)
1987 – Eric Davis (100)
1989 – Eric Davis (101)
1990 – Greg Vaughn (118)
2000 – Ken Griffey Jr. (118)

Again since 1980, there have been 5 Reds players to score 100 runs in a season. They've done it all of 8 times.

1987 – Eric Davis (120)
1996 – Barry Larkin (117)
1999 – Sean Casey (103)
1999 – Barry Larkin (108)
1999 – Greg Vaughn (104)
2000 – Ken Griffey Jr. (100)
2004 – Sean Casey (101)
2007 – Brandon Phillips (107)

Number of players with 100 run 100 RBI seasons? Three, Vaughn, Davis, and Griffey. Each accomplished that feat exactly once.

Dunn has done it 3 of the last 4 years. In every conceivable statistic measurement that matters, RC/27, OPS, Dunn is our most valuable offensive force. Without him (coupled with Griffey's age related decline), we better be darn sure Bruce and Votto are all that we think they are and even more, because the offence goes from average to bad faster then you can say "subjective analysis".

I completely agree. He is valuable, and productive, just not worth the money, or a good fit for this team, especially with Bruce ready. I was completely for picking up his option this year for all the reasons you stated. But that was then, this is now. I think Bruce and Votto can easily fill the void.



Edit: Half as much? really? I'd like Adam to sign for 6.5 million per year also, but I live in a world where he is likely to be paid more then a fifth starter.

Which is why I think he should be traded. He is not worth what he will get, at least not to this Reds team.

[Mutaman]

But the Reds used that money on Griffey when they could've spent it on pitching. iF old Carl hadn't been forced to sign Jr. he would have used the money to buy some more bananas or make a political contribution.

[757690]

iF old Carl hadn't been forced to sign Jr. he would have used the money to buy some more bananas or make a political contribution.

Very true. Remember this is an owner who once asked why everyone in the organization was so obsessed with "winning" and not being profitable, and the owner that nixed a trade to bring Chuck Finley because it added an extra $100,000 to the $45M team budget.

[Jack Burton]

Please, get rid of them both. It makes our team instantly better if we call up Bruce. Dunn and Griff = tavern league softball players.

[DTCromer]

What? Dunn with another meaningless homerun?

[Jack Burton]

That raises his stock, slightly. Move him.

[mlbfan30]

What? Dunn with another meaningless homerun?

It's not meaningless when it's helping me win my money fantasy league.

I'm getting really tired of the Dunn bashing. Some people act like he's totally useless and actually hurts the team. Dunn is a very productive player, just not in the old fashion point of view. He's a patient slugger who will always produce high percentages of the 3 true outcomes. That doesn't mean he's bad though.

Dunn is probably worth 13-15M as a hitter by FA standards, maybe even more. The problem I have with him in terms of a LTC is the defense. He's not at a Bonds or Manny level where the hitting is so great it overcomes the defense in terms of value.

By knocking off 1-1.5 Wins due to defense, then adding aging - especially with a player with OLD player skills - I really don't see how it would be worth it.

Also by shopping for a FA this offseason, we could have the flexibilty to go after a 1B or LF, since Votto can switch to LF. However building from within or using a stopgap is the best solution money wise.

And yet even as I saw all this, that 13.5M extension is going to easily be worth it for this year. He'll get on hot streaks where he's going to carry the team by himself for several days. Nothing anyone says will affect Dunns performance, and Dunn's performance is known and proven year after year, and it's very effective.

[OUReds]

Simply not true. The accuracy of a statistical sample is dependent on both the actual quantity, and the time duration from which it was taken. If you own a hardware store, and you sell 100 lawnmowers one year, then you sell 95 the next, then 90 the next, and then 85 the next, you would clearly conclude that your sales of lawnmowers are down. If you were to sell 100 nails one day, then 95 the next, then 90 the next, then 85, you would conclude very little, since it was only four days.

No. You certainly would conclude that your sale of lawnmowers is declining from your example, but what you quote is not a sample, it is the entire data set. If you are going to make predictions based on a sampling of that data it's accuracy is most impacted by it's quantity.

For example, if you were to try and discover what part of the day customers buy the most mowers, and you took a sample of all your sales as per above, the breadth of your sample (past year or past week) would not affect the ACCURACY of your sample. The breadth will affect your conclusions, but not it's accuracy

70ish ABs from Dunn is not enough to make a prediction of anything precisely because it is not going to accurately pick up the ups and downs of a full season. There is just too much randomness inherent in the small sample.

Since I now suspect Dunn will not be back, I very much hope your right that his production is "easily" replaced, but my entire point in my last post was to show that it isn't. If 100 RBI 100 Run productions were so easy to snap off, it would have been done more then 3 times by others in the last 30 or so years.

mlbfan30: I think this old player skill stuff is overrated. I have not seen any research that says power and patience declines at an appreciably faster rate then others. All I've seen are people saying "Dunn is like ________ , so watch out!" Even if it's true, Dunn is 28 this year. He's unlikely to drop off the table in the next 4 years.

[Newman4]

People always bring up the 40 HRs, 100 RBI's and 100 runs scored that Dunn produces. That is good, but he is the worst at run production of any active 40 HR hitter. (actually Soriano had a slightly worse 40 home run year, but that was a lead off hitter.) The average RBI's for a recent 40 HR (between 40 and 43 HR) hitter is 125 RBI's. Dunn averages 100 RBI's. The average runs scored is 110. Dunn averages 103. Dunn produced 32 runs a year less than the average 40 HR hitter. That is a lot. Some of that is the team around him, but that can't explain such a big difference.

Nice little post. I have never seen Dunn compared that way. Very good work.

[Newman4]

You guys are forgetting in this money argument that Arroyo's 9.5 million dollar 2009 extension kicks in as well as Harang's salary going from 6.75 mil to 11 mil.

[Nasty_Boy]

Don't know what ya got, til its gone!

As for the meaningless HR, that has been proven to be BS... but how about Phillips Sunday in San Fran? He hit 2 HRs with the game out of reach, but I didn't hear anyone call them meaningless. Also, is Dunn's HR meaningless if it gets him on a role? Dunn's power numbers are a little down right now, along with his RBIs, but one good game and he would be at or near the team lead in these categories. Dunn is off to a slow start but he's been better than some perennial All-Stars... he's still going to out produce every other Red from a spot in the batting order that doesn't take advantage of his best qualities.

[Nasty_Boy]

This isn't directed at you Newman, but since you brought it up... Why are people so worried about what Dunn makes? You don't pay his salary, and the Reds have plenty of money to resign Dunn and still be aggressive in the free agent market. Dunn is everything fans should want in a slugger on the free agent market... He plays everyday, he produces, and he's consistent. I don't understand the venom towards Adam Dunn.

[BLEEDS]

If I am going to include RBI's, I need to include Runs Scored to be thorough.


I disagree. You can control RBI's to a point, and by showing how many situations you are in, you can draw some analysis. You posted all of these numbers with RISP didn't you? Obviously you can quantify that somewhat.

Runs Scored? Absolutely meaningless in comparision to RBIs, for comparing hitters and production. He gets on base at a .385 clip, that's all you need to look at.




To be honest, stats are not the best way to judge Dunn anyway. I think the best way is to watch him play. Honestly, when he comes up in crucial situations, what are you thinking? What are you feeling?

I'm thinking, MAN they are going to pitch around him. I wish he wasn't batting 5th.


PEACE

-BLEEDS

[BLEEDS]

You guys are forgetting in this money argument that Arroyo's 9.5 million dollar 2009 extension kicks in as well as Harang's salary going from 6.75 mil to 11 mil.

You are also forgetting that Griffey's $12.5M salary comes off the books and gets replaced by Bruce's league minimum - that covers those two raises alone.

There's more, but it's already been addressed a 1000 times. There's also Hatteberg (1.8), Valentin (1.35), Weathers (3.5), Patterson (3), Ross (2.52) not having contracts for next year. Replace those guys with rookies as placeholders, and you're looking at only $54M for the payroll for 2009. So PLENTY of room for Dunn and some other upgrades to the guys mentioned above.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[BLEEDS]

mlbfan30: I think this old player skill stuff is overrated. I have not seen any research that says power and patience declines at an appreciably faster rate then others. All I've seen are people saying "Dunn is like ________ , so watch out!" Even if it's true, Dunn is 28 this year. He's unlikely to drop off the table in the next 4 years.

Agree 100%. Barry Bonds played well into his 40's. Realizing that he's a (chemically enhanced, ALLEGEDLY) severe example, it's not a stretch to think Dunn can't take walks and shoot a bunch over the severely short Left Field porch in GABP for 5 years+ without any consideration for prematurely aging or going all Cecil Fielder fat on us...

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[Nasty_Boy]

Freel could also be traded (roughly 3 mil). I'm not sure the stucture of Coffey's contract but isn't he in the last year of a 2 year deal? Affeldt and Foog are both 1 year guys, and I'm assuming Mercker and Lincoln are also.

So we have all 3 catchers that will be FA.
One 1st baseman
Three outfielders
One utility player (Hariston)
And at least 6 relievers (maybe more) that will be FA's.

That's at least 14 players that will be FA's, not to mention Stanton and Castro's contracts that come off the books. The Reds could be very aggressive this offseason, unless the decide to go with the youngster. I honestly see most of the money being spent on relievers (maybe a starter) and possibly one outfielder.

[BLEEDS]

Freel could also be traded (roughly 3 mil). I'm not sure the stucture of Coffey's contract but isn't he in the last year of a 2 year deal? Affeldt and Foog are both 1 year guys, and I'm assuming Mercker and Lincoln are also.

So we have all 3 catchers that will be FA.
One 1st baseman
Three outfielders
One utility player (Hariston)
And at least 6 relievers (maybe more) that will be FA's.

That's at least 14 players that will be FA's, not to mention Stanton and Castro's contracts that come off the books. The Reds could be very aggressive this offseason, unless the decide to go with the youngster. I honestly see most of the money being spent on relievers (maybe a starter) and possibly one outfielder.

Freel is due $4M in 2009 - yes, you heard it right. However, IFF he can continue to hit like he's doing now, and proves he's fully recovered, I'd SURELY keep him over Corey Patterson. I've actually still got him figured in my payroll calcs for 2009.

Ross has a $3.5M club option with a $375K buy-out. Writing, meet wall.

6 relievers? I only see 4. Coffey is not under contract. Weather's either. Affeldt is $3M off too. Lincoln is a 1 year guy.
However we have a plethora of young guys available - Bray, Burton, Roenicke, who will be around on the cheap, and some more in the wings in AAA. I could see another (or the same) Affeldt or Mercker type deals, but I don't really see the need to overspend there since we have so many young guys. But I see the possibility.

I agree, we could be players in FA if we choose. IMO, a Dunn extension doesn't hinder that in any regard.

I still contend we can support $80-90M payroll - if we put a winner on the field. So, $$ is not a big deal, especially with Cast in control.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[Nasty_Boy]

Mercker and Fogg where the other 2 relievers. I know Fogg is a one year guy, not sure about Kent.

[BLEEDS]

Mercker and Fogg where the other 2 relievers. I know Fogg is a one year guy, not sure about Kent.

Ahh, forgot about Fogg, guess he is a reliever now, eh? Good Point.

Yet another bullpen guy that's easily replaceable. I'm sure we'd like to get a veteran or two for the pen, but I don't think we need to overpay, although we surely could afford to.

Right now, my biggest concern - beyond extending Dunn - is Center Field/Lead-off. Unfortunately Dusty ties these two together, seemingly no matter what. We need D from that position more than anything, especially this year, but not at the expense of an out machine getting the most AB's per game. Other people have light-hitting defensive guys - mostly middle infielders - that bat later in the lineup, why we can't do the same is beyond me. We need a happy medium there, stat!!

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[mlbfan30]

Agree 100%. Barry Bonds played well into his 40's. Realizing that he's a (chemically enhanced, ALLEGEDLY) severe example, it's not a stretch to think Dunn can't take walks and shoot a bunch over the severely short Left Field porch in GABP for 5 years+ without any consideration for prematurely aging or going all Cecil Fielder fat on us...

PEACE

-BLEEDS

The Old player skills is proven. On an aggregate level, old player skill players decline about 1.5-2 years earlier, and their careers don't last as long.

Bonds is probably one of the best examples of young players skills. At age 28, Bonds had 46HR, .336 AVG, 29SB, 126BB, 79SO. These are young players skills; speed, average, and strike zone judgment. People forget how great he was before the roids.

[OUReds]

The Old player skills is proven. On an aggregate level, old player skill players decline about 1.5-2 years earlier, and their careers don't last as long.

Source?

[757690]

No. You certainly would conclude that your sale of lawnmowers is declining from your example, but what you quote is not a sample, it is the entire data set. If you are going to make predictions based on a sampling of that data it's accuracy is most impacted by it's quantity.

For example, if you were to try and discover what part of the day customers buy the most mowers, and you took a sample of all your sales as per above, the breadth of your sample (past year or past week) would not affect the ACCURACY of your sample. The breadth will affect your conclusions, but not it's accuracy

70ish ABs from Dunn is not enough to make a prediction of anything precisely because it is not going to accurately pick up the ups and downs of a full season. There is just too much randomness inherent in the small sample.

Since I now suspect Dunn will not be back, I very much hope your right that his production is "easily" replaced, but my entire point in my last post was to show that it isn't. If 100 RBI 100 Run productions were so easy to snap off, it would have been done more then 3 times by others in the last 30 or so years.

mlbfan30: I think this old player skill stuff is overrated. I have not seen any research that says power and patience declines at an appreciably faster rate then others. All I've seen are people saying "Dunn is like ________ , so watch out!" Even if it's true, Dunn is 28 this year. He's unlikely to drop off the table in the next 4 years.


You are technically correct about accuracy not being dependent on sample size, it's obviously determined by the method used and how sloppy it is executed. But I meant accuracy in terms of predictive accuracy, the accuracy of the conclusions that can be drawn. I was not as linguistically precise as I should have been. My apologies.

[757690]

You are also forgetting that Griffey's $12.5M salary comes off the books and gets replaced by Bruce's league minimum - that covers those two raises alone.

There's more, but it's already been addressed a 1000 times. There's also Hatteberg (1.8), Valentin (1.35), Weathers (3.5), Patterson (3), Ross (2.52) not having contracts for next year. Replace those guys with rookies as placeholders, and you're looking at only $54M for the payroll for 2009. So PLENTY of room for Dunn and some other upgrades to the guys mentioned above.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

And this had been made 1001 times. In order to get to those numbers you need to get rid of Freel, and Affeldt as well. If all those guys leave, you need to get a starting catcher, a starting CF, a RH set up reliever, a LH set up reliever, a back up catcher, a backup centerfielder/infielder, and a left handed bat off the bench. Maybe one or two of those will be replaced by rookies, but if you have a rookie CF, a rookie catcher, two rookie set up guys, you are destined to finish below .500. On order to compete, those players need to be replaced with real major leaguers, and those will cost at least what the Reds paid the players they replaced, most likely more. Those guys you listed are not overpaid.


Losing Griffey saves $8.2M (what he got this year), $9M will be eaten up by Harang and Arroyo, and Phillips gets a $2M raise in 09, and EE will get at least that much, his first year of arbitration.

Another way to look at it, lose Griffey, Hatteberg, Valentin, Weathers, Patterson, Ross, Freel and Affeldt. Add the raises for the players you keep, you have $13.37 left to spend on

CF
RF
C
LH set up
RH Set up
Backup C
Back up CF/IF
LH hitter off bench

Assume Bruce fills one outfield position.
Assume Bray fills LH set up
Assume Roenike fills RH set up

You basically will have $12M to get two outfielders, a starting catcher and three solid back ups.
You might be able to do that, maybe, but that leaves no money to improve other areas, like pitching.

[BLEEDS]

That's a lot of analysis - but to keep it simple, you should, I don't know, ADD UP THE SALARIES OF THE GUYS ON THE 25 MAN ROSTER and see for yourself.

I'll repeat. For 2009, the guys on the roster take up $54M right now. This counts Bruce in for Griffey and KEEPING Freel.

Weathers, Affeldt, Patterson, Ross, Valentin, Hatteberg - I see two starters. The rest can be replaced for less than $1M - EASILY.

Replace/Keep an Affeldt&Patterson at $3m each and you're still sitting at ONLY $60M. That's 14M less than this year's current number.

I also think the Payroll goes up $6-8M + like it has the past two years. $20M to spend, being VERY low-sided.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[aodaniel]

I would like to see both go.I really hate the shift every team employs against them and it working to
perfection

P.S. Throw in Grande who keeps mentioning the shift.

I think they should ship Grande out with them.

[Big Hurt]

Griff to 1st
Votto to LF
Bruce to RF
Patterson/Hopper to CF
Dunn to AL to dump cash and good mjor league ready pitcher

[757690]

That's a lot of analysis - but to keep it simple, you should, I don't know, ADD UP THE SALARIES OF THE GUYS ON THE 25 MAN ROSTER and see for yourself.

I'll repeat. For 2009, the guys on the roster take up $54M right now. This counts Bruce in for Griffey and KEEPING Freel.

Weathers, Affeldt, Patterson, Ross, Valentin, Hatteberg - I see two starters. The rest can be replaced for less than $1M - EASILY.

Replace/Keep an Affeldt&Patterson at $3m each and you're still sitting at ONLY $60M. That's 14M less than this year's current number.

I also think the Payroll goes up $6-8M + like it has the past two years. $20M to spend, being VERY low-sided.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Here are the actual salaries of who is returning next year if the Reds sign Dunn. This includes arbitration raises for EE and Keppinger:


Dunn 15
Cordero 12.5
Harang 11
Gonzalez 5
Arroyo 9.5
Phillips 5
EE 3
Keppinger 2
Burton .5
Volquez .5
Cueto .5
Votto .5
Bruce .5
Bray .5
Roenike .5
Bailey .5
total 67

Here is how the Reds can fill out the rest of the roster using only minor leaguers and available free agents.


Jacque Jones - CF 5
Greg Zaun - Catcher 3
Tony Armas Jr. - 5th Starter 3
Backups:
1B 0.5
INF 0.5
OF 0.5
C 0.5
RP 0.5
RP 0.5
total 14

total 81

So by signing Dunn, the Reds will not only not be able to sign any help, but they will be forced to field a team with players like Jacque Jones and Tony Armas jr, and rookies making up the entire bench.

The real question is: Is Adam Dunn the best player the Reds could get for $15M a year for 4 years? And is his power needed on this team, with Bruce, Votto, and EE coming into their own next year, if not sooner?

[Newman4]

The real question is: Is Adam Dunn the best player the Reds could get for $15M a year for 4 years? And is his power needed on this team, with Bruce, Votto, and EE coming into their own next year, if not sooner?

Before answering the first question, I want to say that Dunn is quite valuable as a player. I just don't think that the Reds needs offense as much as pitching. (Yes, even with the youngsters showing promise) Bruce, Keppinger, Votto, EE, BP is a pretty nice young, relatively inexpensive core offensively. Gonzo is still under contract, so is Freel. Ross has an option if they want him. Arroyo is a question mark at this point. So is Cueto, Bailey, Belisle, et al. (At this point, although I expect them to develop as planned) Volquez has only pitched here a month. Harang is steady, but what else follows him? I'd rather spend 15 million on another frontline starter. CC will probably want more, but you could probably sign up someone like AJ Burnett or Ben Sheets at that number. Thus, no to #1 and no to #2. Just my .02. ;)

[Scott Botkins]

Hopefully Griffey is traded because I'm getting tired of him being used as the scapegoat every year by a lot of fans. The Reds will continue to fail when they load up on power hitters and get mediocre pitching at best besides 1-2 quality starters. Griffey can't win games by himself and I believe some fans actually believe this (by the way I'm not referring to anyone on here, this is coming from people I've talked to), Griffey plays the game the right way and will be one of the best players ever. I'm glad I got to go to see him play and hit a few homeruns. But he deserves a ring and he's not going to get one here playing small market ball.

As for Dunn, this guy seems to be dropping fast and its kind of sad. His defense is horrible and I'm afraid its going to get worse before it gets better, same goes for his offense. When a guy doesn't have any sacrifice flies especially when he's a power hitter then he's not helping our team out at all, its homerun or strikeout with him. He's suppose to be in his prime now and he's no where near it, I wouldn't be suprised if he DFA within 5 years with us or some other ball club.

I say we go ahead and bring up the young guys and let them play ball so they're ready for next year.

[Rounding Third]

Hopefully Griffey is traded because I'm getting tired of him being used as the scapegoat every year by a lot of fans. The Reds will continue to fail when they load up on power hitters and get mediocre pitching at best besides 1-2 quality starters. Griffey can't win games by himself and I believe some fans actually believe this (by the way I'm not referring to anyone on here, this is coming from people I've talked to), Griffey plays the game the right way and will be one of the best players ever. I'm glad I got to go to see him play and hit a few homeruns. But he deserves a ring and he's not going to get one here playing small market ball.

As for Dunn, this guy seems to be dropping fast and its kind of sad. His defense is horrible and I'm afraid its going to get worse before it gets better, same goes for his offense. When a guy doesn't have any sacrifice flies especially when he's a power hitter then he's not helping our team out at all, its homerun or strikeout with him. He's suppose to be in his prime now and he's no where near it, I wouldn't be suprised if he DFA within 5 years with us or some other ball club.

I say we go ahead and bring up the young guys and let them play ball so they're ready for next year.

Are you Marty?

[BLEEDS]

Here are the actual salaries of who is returning next year if the Reds sign Dunn. This includes arbitration raises for EE and Keppinger:


Dunn 15
Cordero 12.5
Harang 11
Gonzalez 5
Arroyo 9.5
Phillips 5
EE 3
Keppinger 2
Burton .5
Volquez .5
Cueto .5
Votto .5
Bruce .5
Bray .5
Roenike .5
Bailey .5
total 67

Here is how the Reds can fill out the rest of the roster using only minor leaguers and available free agents.


Jacque Jones - CF 5
Greg Zaun - Catcher 3
Tony Armas Jr. - 5th Starter 3
Backups:
1B 0.5
INF 0.5
OF 0.5
C 0.5
RP 0.5
RP 0.5
total 14

total 81

So by signing Dunn, the Reds will not only not be able to sign any help, but they will be forced to field a team with players like Jacque Jones and Tony Armas jr, and rookies making up the entire bench.

Somehow I would be very impressed if we were able to put Jacque Jones in CF instead of Corey F. Patterson. $3m for a catcher I could live with, don't know if it would have to be a 37 year old one, but whatever... I might still consider it a great upgrade.

Why would we need a 5th starter if we have Homer? That money can be discounted, but just to keep things in perspective, let's assume Freel DOESN'T get traded (since his $4M is on the hook for 2009 still), then this roster is about right at ~$80M. As I said, I expect it to be AT LEAST that much, and probably more. I could see a couple more $2-3M RP's - similar to Mercker/Affeldt - and be at/near $85M.

If you don't think that roster is a better than anything else you can some up with, sans Dunn, for the same price or less, and have it REALISTICALLY compete for the playoffs, then I don't know what to tell you. Better root for the Yankees and their payroll, or the KC Royals and theirs...

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[Jack Burton]

Jacque Jones is terrible, stay clear.

On the Griffey and Dunn talk, it ain't gonna happen. Looks like we gotta deal with these slobs all year.

[Kingspoint]

Dunn or Junior have to go.

Singles become Doubles when a ball gets hit out to them.

In 2001 the REDS' pitching was next to last in the league in giving up Doubles.

Junior was injured for most of 2002 and the REDS' pitching was 7 Doubles away from next to last in the league in giving up Doubles.

In 2003 the REDS' pitching was last in the league in giving up Doubles.

In 2004 the REDS' pitching was last in the league (by a huge margin) in giving up Doubles.

In 2005 the REDS' pitching was last in the league in giving up Doubles.

In 2006 the REDS' pitching was 3 doubles away from being next to last in the league in giving up Doubles.

In 2007 the REDS' pitching was last in the league in giving up Doubles.

In 2008 the REDS' pitching is near last in the league in giving up Doubles after today.

And neither one of them can throw anybody out either.

The bottom line is baserunners can run at will against these two terrible defensive players.

You can't have them both on the same team.

[Hondo]

Dunn or Junior have to go.

Singles become Doubles when a ball gets hit out to them.

In 2003 the REDS' pitching was last in the league in giving up Doubles.

In 2004 the REDS' pitching was last in the league (by a huge margin) in giving up Doubles.

In 2005 the REDS' pitching was last in the league in giving up Doubles.

In 2006 the REDS' pitching was 3 doubles away from being next to last in the league in giving up Doubles.

In 2007 the REDS' pitching was last in the league in giving up Doubles.


So are you saying that if you want to Lead the League in doubles, you should play against Cincinnati???