Pitching wins pennants

[ChatterRed]

Pitching wins pennants.

Team pitching e.r.a. leaders. Teams in bold made the playoffs.
1. Toronto_____3.49_______finished with a .531 winning percentage; (4th in their very tough division - BoSox, Rays, Yanks);
2. Dodgers_____3.68_______finished with a .519 winning percentage (1st in their division);
3. Tampa Bay___3.82_______finished with a .599 winning percentage (1st in their division);
4. Milwaukee____3.85_______finished with a .556 winning percentage (2nd in their division);
5. Cubs________3.87_______.602 winning percentage (1st in their division);
6. Phillies_______3.88_______.568% (1st in their division);
7. Arizona______3.98_______.506% (2nd in their division); barely missed the playoffs;
8. Angels_______3.99_______.617%(1st in their division and all of baseball);
9. Oakland______4.01________436%(3rd in their division); They were 30th in team batting average at .242 (the worst); last in SLG% and OPS%
10. Boston______4.01_______.586%(2nd in their division);
11. Mets________4.07_______.549%(2nd in their division); barely missed the playoffs
12. White Sox____4.09_______.546%(1st in their division);
13. Minnesota____4.18_______.540%(2nd in their division); barely missed the playoffs
14. St. Louis_____4.19_______.531%(4th in their division); they were in the wild card race
15. Yankees_____4.28________.549%(3rd in their division); in other division, they make the playoffs
16. Houston_____4.36________.534%(3rd in their division); they were in the wild card race

All 8 of the playoff teams were in the top 12 of team pitching e.r.a..

Oakland was the only team with a losing record in the top 16 leaders.

Of the remaining teams, only #19. Florida had a winning record (84-77) and #20. Cleveland finished .500 (81-81). All the other teams had losing records. Reds finished #23 in team e.r.a. at 4.55.

The Reds lead the majors in HR's allowed with 201, but possibly with a little help from GABP. They were 4th in throwing K's in all of baseball. But they were 6th worst in opponents batting average against them.

By comparison, team batting average is not quite as important. Playoff teams in bold.

1. Texas_________.283________.488 winning percentage (2nd in their division)
2. Cards__________.281
3. Boston_________.280
4. Minnesota_______.280
5. Cubs___________.278
6. Detroit_________.271
7. Yankees________.271
8. Braves_________.270
9. Royals_________.269
10. Angels________.268

Only 3 teams in the top 10 made the playoffs. Reds finished 29th at .247. In fact, 3 teams in the bottom 10 of batting average (Milwaukee, Phillies, Tampa Bay) made the playoffs. Arizona almost did. Florida was in the race for awhile.

Another interesting stat is team stolen bases. Recognize any of these playoff teams?
1. Tampa Bay____142
2. Colorado__________141
3. Mets_____________138; barely missed the playoffs
4. Phillies_________136
5. Angels____________129
6. Dodgers___________126
7. Boston____________120
8. Yankees___________118; were in contention
9. Houston___________114; were in wild card race
10. Milwaukee______108
15. Cubs_____________87

Another interesting stat is team errors. None of the team's finishing in the bottom 10 of errors made the postseason EXCEPT the White Sox. 11 of the top 15 fielding teams finished .500 or better, and 5 teams made the playoffs. Brewers and Cubs were in the 16-20 range and White Sox were 23rd.

Based on these stats, wouldn't you say Jocketty's type of team, pitching-speed-defense, wins pennants? Sure looks like it.

The Reds finished in the top 10 in hitting HR's, but were terrible in the rbi category.

[Slyder]

What about the big debate? On Base Percentage?

[Slyder]

Just want to expand things a bit

OBP
1 Boston .358
2 Cubs .354
3 Texas .354
4 St. Louis .350
5 Atlanta .345
6 Yankees .342
7 Detroit .340
8 Mets .340
9 Minnesota .340
10 Tampa .340

Bold were in contention for playoffs to start in September. Reds were 21st in Baseball at .321. Anyone else not convinced Duhhhsty Baker will continue to be an albatross with his lineups?

Runs Scored
1 Texas 901
2 Cubs 855
3 Boston 845
4 Minnesota 829
5 Detroit 821
6 White Sox 811
7 Cleveland 805
8 Mets 799
9 Philadelphia 799
10 Yankees 789

Bolded were top 10 in OBP. Tampa finished 13th runs scored, Angels finished 15th in runs scored, White Sox were 15th in OBP, Cleveland was 11th in OBP I guess they havent learned from the same book as Duhhhsty and are all crazy for taking walks *sarc*.

[ChatterRed]

...uh......may have been in contention, but didn't make the playoffs. Big difference.

Team OBP off of mlb.com (playoff teams in bold):

OBP
1 Boston .358
2 Cubs .354
3 Texas .354
4 St. Louis .350
5 Atlanta .345
6 Yankees .342
7 Detroit .340
8 Mets .340
9 Minnesota .340
10 Tampa .340

Coming close is only good in horseshoes. Only 3 playoff teams were in the top 10 of team OBP. Unlike 8 playoff teams being in the top 11 of team e.r.a..

[ChatterRed]

Offense for playoff teams:

Batting average:
Milwaukee - 25th in mlb
Phillies - 23rd
Rays - 21st
White Sox - 18th
Dodgers - 14th

Runs scored:
Dodgers - 24th
Brewers - 17th
Angels - 15th

OBP:
Brewers - 21st
Angels - 18th
White Sox - 16th
Phillies - 15th
Dodgers - 14th

It seems to me that the hitting stats for playoff teams are all over the board, yet the pitching e.r.a. is pretty much confined to the top 10 for playoff teams.

Obviously you have to score runs, but the stats hold up that good/great pitching is still more important a factor in getting to the playoffs than great offense.

And Texas was 1st in runs scored and rbi, total bases, slugging percentage, batting average, 3rd in OBP, 6th in walks, and 6th in HR's........where did that get them? Oh yeah.......they were last in team e.r.a. in all of mlb. Now flip flop that with the Dodgers who were 2nd in team e.r.a. but 24th in runs scored on offense. Which team made the playoffs? Hmmmm.

[Slyder]

Offense for playoff teams:

Batting average:
Milwaukee - 25th in mlb
Phillies - 23rd
Rays - 21st
White Sox - 18th
Dodgers - 14th

Runs scored:
Dodgers - 24th
Brewers - 17th
Angels - 15th

OBP:
Brewers - 21st
Angels - 18th
White Sox - 16th
Phillies - 15th
Dodgers - 14th

It seems to me that the hitting stats for playoff teams are all over the board, yet the pitching e.r.a. is pretty much confined to the top 10 for playoff teams.

Obviously you have to score runs, but the stats hold up that good/great pitching is still more important a factor in getting to the playoffs than great offense.

And Texas was 1st in runs scored and rbi, total bases, slugging percentage, batting average, 3rd in OBP, 6th in walks, and 6th in HR's........where did that get them? Oh yeah.......they were last in team e.r.a. in all of mlb. Now flip flop that with the Dodgers who were 2nd in team e.r.a. but 24th in runs scored on offense. Which team made the playoffs? Hmmmm.


I was just wanting to bring in the corelation of OBP to runs scored. Until Duhhsty is replaced by someone who at least recognizes what a good leadoff hitter is we will be greeted by Matt Cain type performances while Duhhsty puts automatic outs at the top of the lineup while decent/good obp are pidgeon holed.

[Orenda]

Okay pitching, defense, and offense wins pennants. The dodgers most likely would have not made the playoffs had it not been for the addition of Manny Ramirez. Who was the last team to win a World Series with great pitching and mediocre hitting? For all the love that the A's and Twins have gotten over the last few years how many World Series rings do they have? Pitching might be able to get you to the playoffs, but other playoff teams generally have front line starters that can shut down anemic offense.

[kpresidente]

Maybe I can summarize this thread. Here's the average rank for playoff teams in each aspect of the game. The stat used is in ().

Pitching (FIP) - 8.75th
Defense - (DER) - 9.38th
Offense (OPS) - 10.25th

...so, bottom line is they're all pretty important. You could say pitching/defense is more important but the difference is negligible.

BTW - Here's where the Reds ranked...

Pitching - 24th
Defense - 29th
Offense - 24th

[757690]

Maybe I can summarize this thread. Here's the average rank for playoff teams in each aspect of the game. The stat used is in ().

Pitching (FIP) - 8.75th
Defense - (DER) - 9.38th
Offense (OPS) - 10.25th

...so, bottom line is they're all pretty important. You could say pitching/defense is more important but the difference is negligible.

BTW - Here's where the Reds ranked...

Pitching - 24th
Defense - 29th
Offense - 24th


Averages can be deceptive, since one team ranked low can throw off the other seven. For instance, if the first seven teams ranked in stat all make the playoffs and the eighth team is ranked 20th, a clear outliner, then the average would be 6th.
I think seeing how many of the top 10 teams made the playoffs or what percentage of the teams that made the playoffs were in the top ten would be a better judge.

Maybe it will show the same range as the average, but I think it would be a better judge of how important a stat is in terms of making the playoffs.

[kpresidente]

Averages can be deceptive, since one team ranked low can throw off the other seven. For instance, if the first seven teams ranked in stat all make the playoffs and the eighth team is ranked 20th, a clear outliner, then the average would be 6th.
I think seeing how many of the top 10 teams made the playoffs or what percentage of the teams that made the playoffs were in the top ten would be a better judge.

Maybe it will show the same range as the average, but I think it would be a better judge of how important a stat is in terms of making the playoffs.

I hear what you're saying. For me, the basic logic says pitching/defense should be more or less equal to offense. You win games by scoring more than you give up, after all. Any deviation would have to be due to one aspect being inherently more consistent than the other, so that runs aren't "wasted" in big wins. I think hitting and pitching will be more or less equally inconsistent, but defense, on the other hand, is pretty reliable from game to game. That might give a slight edge to the pitching/defense crowd.

The real interesting question for me is, "Which is more important to preventing runs: Defense of pitching?" I think the obvious answer is probably pitching, but you still want to know the ratio regardless.

Anybody got any figures on that?