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ChatterRed
10-17-2008, 08:18 PM
I have pretty much come to the conclusion that the wild offseason Reds fans are expecting won't happen. I see Reds management trading for Magglio Ordonez and standing pat.

RF Ibanez or Bruce
CF Bruce or Dickerson (if Ibanez is not signed)
LF Ordonez
1B Votto
2B Phillips
SS Gonzalez
3B EE
C Hanigan

Bench/pinch hitters
Keppinger (all infield positions, good hitter)
Freel (infield/outfield)
Owings (pitcher, good hitter)
Hairston (infield/outfield)
FA backup catcher
???

Starting pitching
Harang
Arroyo
Volquez
Cueto
Owings

Bullpen
Cordero
Weathers - re-signed
Burton
Bray
Affeldt - re-signed
Lincoln - re-signed
Herrera or Roenicke

1. The Yankees are poised for a big spending spree if you read all reports. Not a good year to be in a bidding war. Dodgers have 14 free agents and will let most walk, so they will be spending too.
2. Limited quality pitching free agents, so what is out there will be gobbled up by the big spenders.
3. Manny and Vladimir are the top free agent outfielders and will cost alot. I don't expect to see the Reds get involved. One FA outfielder I would like to see the Reds pursue is Ibanez: http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/5665/career;_ylt=AqGvAmBCjdtDKX3XFDb60C6FCLcF I think he would be a nice stop-gap for a few years while we wait for our farm system to produce a cheap quality replacement. I don't see the Reds going after Holiday because he will be too expensive in terms of mortgaging the farm system and overall price tag to sign him. Not worth it.
4. I'm pretty sure the Reds will stand pat with Hanigan as the starting catcher. But who will be the backup? I don't see Bako back, so they will probably sign one of the FA catchers available that is willing to take more of a backup role.
5. I see them trying to re-sign Hairston. They already have Freel and Keppinger in the fold for next season. Hairston and Freel give them outfield options. Also, if they were to trade for Magglio and sign Ibanez as a FA, they know they'd have Dickerson in triple AAA just in case. So the outfield would be covered pretty well for once. Keppinger can play all infield positions. Freel is more of a 2B-3B, and Hairston is more of a SS-2B. So they have the infield covered competently too. I'd be fine with that bench. It only lacks HR pop, but Owings could give you that.
6. Patterson being gone is a huge addition by subtraction that fans should take note of.
7. The defense improved from giving up .77 errors per game when Junior and Dunn were still with the team, to .53 when they were gone and Dickerson and others took over. They could still stand to improve, but I think they already have to some degree.
8. Can they re-sign the bullpen guys? I don't see them signing any free agents, unless they can't re-sign Affeldt and Weathers. Many on this board are sold on Roenicke and Herrera for next year. I'm sold on one of them sitting at the end of the bench and being a long reliever, but not much else. I value experience over a couple of rookies. Roenicke has proven nothing to me. He cold be Todd Coffey in waiting. In fact, the Louisville announcer didn't give him rave reviews when interviewed by Lance. He felt the Reds were trying to protect his stats, which tells me they are using him with kid gloves, hoping he has glowing stats and can trade him. I don't think they have confidence in him.
9. Starting rotation stays the same with the addition of Owings, if healthy. If not, you have Ramirez, Bailey, Thompson and others..........but I'm not really crazy about counting on any of them. I'm hoping Owings can regain form.

So in recapping:
1. Reds trade for Ordonez
2. Reds sign Ibanez as a free agent, and move Bruce to CF.
3. Reds sign a backup catcher.
4. Reds re-sign Hairston, Weathers, Affeldt, and Lincoln.
5. Dickerson starts the year in Triple AAA but will be first call-up when there is an injury.
6. Owings becomes 5th starter and key pinch hitter.

Those are the HUGE :D moves I see the Reds making this offseason.

I would be fine with that. They'd have Magglio for 3 more years, with him at age 35, 36, and 37.......and he still produces........for a grand total of $51 million.......it could be alot worse.

Payroll would be in the $77-$85 million range.

What do you think?

Kingspoint
10-17-2008, 09:35 PM
I certainly don't see any reason to trade away pitching for a Left Fielder for 1 season. There's plenty of players that can fill that role.

It would be exciting to see the REDS put all of their eggs in one basket and go after Lowe, Sheets, or Sabathia. They don't have to give up anything for that, and with Junior's contract finally gone and Dunn's contract gone, and Patterson's contract gone, that's a lot of money freed up to go after one of those three. I still prefer Lowe and push all of our starters down one notch.

The biggest question mark on this team is Defense at Shortstop. I wouldn't want to go into Spring Training relying on Gonzalez.

kpresidente
10-17-2008, 09:42 PM
The biggest question mark on this team is Defense at Shortstop. I wouldn't want to go into Spring Training relying on Gonzalez.

How does this opinion survive while our top LFer is currently Ryan Freel? The difference between Freel and Adam Dunn is probably 1/2 run a game. You think the difference between Keppinger's defense and a league-average shortstop is 82 runs? There's no way. Not even close. And that's assuming Gonzo is a no-go.

The defense at 3B is worse, anyway. Our #1 priority is a middle-of-the-order hitter.

Ghosts of 1990
10-17-2008, 11:15 PM
Good post. I hope Wilkin Castillo is on this roster.

ChatterRed
10-17-2008, 11:39 PM
I forgot about Castillo. Maybe he fills the backup catcher role, among playing other positions too.

Ghosts of 1990
10-18-2008, 08:06 AM
I forgot about Castillo. Maybe he fills the backup catcher role, among playing other positions too.

Yeah, I think that would really maximize his value. Castillo is the backup catcher, so in essence we're carrying 1.5 catchers on the roster, not 3. Castillo plays infield or is coming off the bench 5 out of 6 games...... otherwise Hanigan is back there.

I think Castillo could end up being a pretty valuable player.

redsfandan
10-18-2008, 09:07 AM
i have one question: what about a backup shortstop in case agon misses time again? do we want hairston and keppinger to fill that role in '09 too?

jmac
10-18-2008, 09:32 AM
I certainly don't see any reason to trade away pitching for a Left Fielder for 1 season. There's plenty of players that can fill that role.

It would be exciting to see the REDS put all of their eggs in one basket and go after Lowe, Sheets, or Sabathia. They don't have to give up anything for that, and with Junior's contract finally gone and Dunn's contract gone, and Patterson's contract gone, that's a lot of money freed up to go after one of those three. I still prefer Lowe and push all of our starters down one notch.

The biggest question mark on this team is Defense at Shortstop. I wouldn't want to go into Spring Training relying on Gonzalez.


I would stay far far away from Sheets because of the injury factor.

Ghosts of 1990
10-18-2008, 10:01 AM
anyone else not excited AT ALL to have A Gonzalez back?

Personally I don't think he adds much to this group. Go young here, something other than Gonzalez.

I(heart)Freel
10-18-2008, 10:17 AM
I respect your pessimism about no big splash this off season... but that would fly in the face of two important points:

1) Walt has historically made a splash in his offseasons with his teams, when needs were enunciated.

2) Walt has enunciated needs. He's talked pretty openly about his wishes in the offseason. I don't think he does that unless he's 100 percent certain he's going to back that up. The one caveat, as you mentioned, is our competition for players (Yanks, Dodgers, etc.) It may well be that he goes guns-out for some guys he's got his eye on, and then gets outbid by the bigger guns. Then he has to come back and play the David/Goliath baseball economics card.

I remain optimistic. And I think because he's a smart sonofagun, he'll try to swoop in early to try to get a leg up on the deeper pocket boys.

I think we'll have a fun November on this site. Fingers crossed.

ChatterRed
10-18-2008, 06:46 PM
I respect your pessimism about no big splash this off season... but that would fly in the face of two important points:

1) Walt has historically made a splash in his offseasons with his teams, when needs were enunciated.

2) Walt has enunciated needs. He's talked pretty openly about his wishes in the offseason. I don't think he does that unless he's 100 percent certain he's going to back that up. The one caveat, as you mentioned, is our competition for players (Yanks, Dodgers, etc.) It may well be that he goes guns-out for some guys he's got his eye on, and then gets outbid by the bigger guns. Then he has to come back and play the David/Goliath baseball economics card.

I remain optimistic. And I think because he's a smart sonofagun, he'll try to swoop in early to try to get a leg up on the deeper pocket boys.

I think we'll have a fun November on this site. Fingers crossed.

I disagree mainly on what I heard on Lance McAlister's show last week, as he quoted some things Walt Jocketty said, which pretty much is what my post is based on.

They are going to make some moves, but not the big ones the fans are expecting. That was the gist of what Lance said. They are modeling themselves after the Rays.

As for Gonzalez, they owe him too much money to let him sit. And if they re-sign Hairston, I'm fine with Hairston, Freel, and Keppinger being our infield backups, along with Castillo. Hairston and Kepp can play SS. Freel and Kepp can play 3B and 2B. Castillo can play 2B. All of them surely can play 1B, and I know Kepp can.

Now.........if they surprise us and make a HUGE MOVE.........I will be ecstatic if it involves Sabathia or Lowe!!! I'm not real crazy about breaking the bank and farm system for Holiday. I'd rather sign free agents than trade. The only good thing about trading is you can acquire a guy with a shorter timeframe on his contract (such as Ordonez). The bad thing about signing free agents IS THE TIMEFRAME of the contract.

I think acquiring Ordonez and signing Ibanez would be good moves for this small market team.

kpresidente
10-18-2008, 08:48 PM
I don't see where we're going to get all this money.

You're looking at $18 million for Ordonez, and probably $10-12 for Ibanez. Then you're going to re-sign Weathers, Affeldt, and Hairston? Add another $5, maybe more.

That's a $95+ million payroll. Not likely, IMO. I think we're looking at $80-$85 max.

kpresidente
10-18-2008, 09:03 PM
Here's my take on some of the big names:

Holliday - Would be a perfect fit as a one-year rental, but they want Cueto.

Burrell - Adam Dunn part II. A long-term contract for a bat doesn't make sense because he'd block the young players we have in the system.

Beltre - $13 million for a defensive upgrade? EE is terrible over there, but the value here is horrible. No thanks.

Rafael Furcal - This SS stuff is insane. Furcal's going to cost $10-15 million. There's no way we can have $15-$20 million tied up in the SS position, especially when we're only getting a .764 career OPS out of the deal. The 180 ABs in '08 is obviously a fluke, as evidenced by the .380 BABiP. This is probably the worst suggestion I've heard.

Sabbathia - Another perfect fit, but the length of the contract he's going to get is dangerous for a mid-market team.

Lowe - Dangerous road ERA is likely to be exacerbated at GABP.

Sheets - Could be a good fit if injury concerns limit the length of his contract.

Ibanez - Good fit, but no more than a 3-year deal. Would probably leave room for other moves.

Ramirez - Sounds good, but will he want to come here? My guess the Yankees will try and stick it to the Sox and overpay on this one.

Ordonez - Probably the best fit. Has a $3 million buyout in his contract after 2009, which is perfect for us. If Alonso or Dorn makes a big splash, we can let Ordonez walk. If not, we can hold on to him for two years at $15 million. $18 million in 2009 leaves enough to bring back the relief pitchers, but nixes any chance at adding a starter, which is OK. We'd have to bank on Owings.

Ghosts of 1990
10-18-2008, 09:50 PM
of that list, the only guys we realistically have a shot at are Ordonez and Ibanez. Ibanez might be the best possibility but he is another LH bat.

kpresidente
10-18-2008, 10:14 PM
of that list, the only guys we realistically have a shot at are Ordonez and Ibanez. Ibanez might be the best possibility but he is another LH bat.

I don't really see the LH/RH thing that way. Look at what we've got:

Can't hit LH:
Bruce

Can't hit RH:
Phillips

Hit both more or less equally:
Votto
Encarnacion

Encarnacion had a huge split last season, but also had a .240 BABiP vs. LH. It's hard to figure out what happened to him, but I think he was trying to pull the ball too much. I think he'll return to his career norm next season.


Anyway, looking at that, whether you add a RH or LH doesn't really matter that much. Ideally, you want somebody who can hit both, and that's more likely to be a RH hitter. But at the same time, if you have to take on a big split, you'd rather it be a LH, since you face far more RH pitching.

Kingspoint
10-19-2008, 12:35 AM
How does this opinion survive while our top LFer is currently Ryan Freel? The difference between Freel and Adam Dunn is probably 1/2 run a game. You think the difference between Keppinger's defense and a league-average shortstop is 82 runs? There's no way. Not even close. And that's assuming Gonzo is a no-go.

The defense at 3B is worse, anyway. Our #1 priority is a middle-of-the-order hitter.

I've seen the teams that empasize bats over pitching and defense fail decade after decade. Offense is the most over-rated part of baseball.

If you can't play Defense very well and Pitch very well you can't win a Championship. I don't want a League Average Shortstop Defensively. I want an above Average Defensive Shortstop....and the difference between that and what we have now is enough to put us in the playoff race. It's a trickle-down effect that makes all 24 other players on the team better during every at-bat.

redsfandan
10-19-2008, 01:56 AM
Ordonez - Probably the best fit. Has a $3 million buyout in his contract after 2009, which is perfect for us. If Alonso or Dorn makes a big splash, we can let Ordonez walk. If not, we can hold on to him for two years at $15 million. $18 million in 2009 leaves enough to bring back the relief pitchers, but nixes any chance at adding a starter, which is OK. We'd have to bank on Owings.

i may be wrong but the info i have makes it look to me like it's almost a given that his options for 2010 & 2011 will become guaranteed after 2009 (and if that does happen his 2010 salary would be bumped up to $18 million as well). if my info is wrong let me know where you got your info. thanks

RedLakerFan24
10-19-2008, 02:59 AM
i would go for Delmon Young and Adrian Beltre

Dikerson
Phillips
Votto
Beltre
Bruce
Young
Gonzalez
Hanigan/Castillo

kpresidente
10-19-2008, 03:57 AM
i may be wrong but the info i have makes it look to me like it's almost a given that his options for 2010 & 2011 will become guaranteed after 2009 (and if that does happen his 2010 salary would be bumped up to $18 million as well). if my info is wrong let me know where you got your info. thanks

No, you're right, I think. What I had read said the option vests "if he had less than 500 PAs." But it must have been a misprint because that wouldn't make any sense would it? It should have read "more than 500 PAs."

kpresidente
10-19-2008, 04:08 AM
I've seen the teams that empasize bats over pitching and defense fail decade after decade. Offense is the most over-rated part of baseball.


That's fine but we're talking about Ryan Freel in LF. And if it's pitching and defense you're after, I'm a lot more comfortable with what we have at SS than what we've got in the 5th spot of the rotation.

Anyway, our pitching and defense is going to better next year by default. Put Dickerson in center, Bruce in right, and just about anybody in left and you've already got an improvement on defense. Plus I understand Hanigan is an upgrade over Bako and Ross. A rebound by Harang should be a major boost for the staff as well.

Same can't be said about the offense, though. We traded away our best hitter. If we don't replace that production, the offense is going to be worse than it was last year.

redsfandan
10-19-2008, 10:55 AM
No, you're right, I think. What I had read said the option vests "if he had less than 500 PAs." But it must have been a misprint because that wouldn't make any sense would it? It should have read "more than 500 PAs."

what i've got: (both option years guaranteed w/135 starts or 540 PA in '09 or 270 starts or 1,080 PA between '08 and '09, 2010 option increases to $18 million under those circumstances).
so basically after last season he only needs about 400 plate appearances in 2009 to make 2009-2011 guaranteed for $18 million in 2009, $18 million in 2010, and $15 million in 2011 which, given his track record, should be pretty safe.


That's fine but we're talking about Ryan Freel in LF. And if it's pitching and defense you're after, I'm a lot more comfortable with what we have at SS than what we've got in the 5th spot of the rotation.

Anyway, our pitching and defense is going to better next year by default. Put Dickerson in center, Bruce in right, and just about anybody in left and you've already got an improvement on defense. Plus I understand Hanigan is an upgrade over Bako and Ross. A rebound by Harang should be a major boost for the staff as well.

Same can't be said about the offense, though. We traded away our best hitter. If we don't replace that production, the offense is going to be worse than it was last year.

i'm not uncomfortable about our ss/5th starter as long as agon/harang/owings are healthy. if those three are healthy, and in general we don't have as much time on the DL as we did in '08, we'll be MUCH better. add in one outfielder like ibanez, ordonez, etc and we'll finally have a winning season. :thumbup:

ChatterRed
10-21-2008, 01:24 PM
Based on more recent information, Magglio Ordonez most likely won't be available. Holiday, Texeira, and Sabathia are all most likely headed to the Yanks, although the Dodgers and Giants are also players for Sabathia. Manny is most likely headed back to LA, but don't rule out the Giants, Mets or Cubs.

I don't look for the Reds to be players in the free agent market. I think they probably stand pat and sign a reasonably priced LFer like Ibanez, and then re-sign Affeldt and maybe Hairston.

Here's my 2009 Reds:

C Ryan Hanigan $400,000
C/IF Wilkin Castillo $400,000

1B Joey Votto $400,000
2B Brandon Phillips $4.75M
SS Alex Gonzalez $5.375M
3B Edwin Encarnacion $1M (arbitration)
IF Jeff Keppinger $403,000
IF/OF Jerry Hairston $3M (based on the fact they paid Patterson this much)
IF/OF Ryan Freel $4M
OF Chris Dickerson $400,000
OF Jay Bruce $400,000
OF Raul Ibanez $7M (made $5.5 million last year for Seattle)
OF Norris Hopper $403,000

SP Aaron Harang $11M
SP Bronson Arroyo $9.5M
SP Edison Volquez $400,000
SP Johnny Cueto $400,000
SP Micah Owings $403,000

CL Francisco Cordero $12M
RP Jared Burton $400,000
RP Bill Bray $400,000
RP Nick Masset $400,000
RP Jeremy Affeldt $3M
RP Mike Lincoln $600,000 (arbitration)
RP Josh Roenicke $400,000

Add in Alonso's $400,000 and the payroll would stand at $67,234,000.

Now if you want to tinker with that, you could add Derek Lowe or maybe Oliver Perez for $12 million per year and move Owings to the bullpen. Or maybe you trade Arroyo, and add one of those pitchers via free agency, which is only an add of $2.5M or so. That puts payroll around $70M.

So maybe you then consider moving Jay Bruce to CF, and adding another outfielder, such as Vlad Guerrero for $15M. That puts payroll at $85M. 2008 payroll was $74M.

Emin3mShady07
10-21-2008, 11:43 PM
^^ Ibanez had a really good year last year so I doubt that he signs for 7 million. He will probably cost anywhere between 10-12 milion.
The reds don't need another veteran pitcher, especially Oliver Perez who has not had any numbers in the last two years to suggest that he is worth 12 million a year.
The bullpen looks good and the rotation is solid especially with some prospects waiting in the wings down on the farm.
The best move for the reds would be to pursue another FA outfielder and move Bruce to center. They can try to trade for Holliday, as long as they dont have to give up cueto or volquez, or possibly magglio ordonez which would put the payroll between $85-90M. I also am a big fan of Brian Giles and I believe that the reds could get him for a relatively good price for his production

ChatterRed
10-22-2008, 04:05 AM
You're dreaming if you think the Reds have any chance at Holiday. In fact, you're hallucinating. Go read mlbtraderumors.com and then get back to me. The Yankees are basically going to do whatever it takes to obtain and sign Holiday. Write him off of your Reds list.

As for Ibanez........his name isn't Manny, Vlad, Holiday or Pat Burrell. In fact, he is very little known............and he made $5.5M last year. Why would he make $12M next year? Maybe he'll make more than $7M, but his age is more of a consideration than Manny, Vlad or others. Ibanez will be 37 next June, which is far older than any of the NAME free agent outfielders.

If we're going to live in fantasyland, I'd love for the Reds to move Bruce to CF, then trade for Ichiro Suzuki to play RF, and sign one of the big name Free Agents for LF. That would be good in my book. Solves the cleanup spot in the lineup and the leadoff man. Ain't gonna happen.

As for Oliver Perez, I disagree. http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/baseball/mlb/02/22/perez.arbitration/index.html

Perez just turned 27 in August. He has posted probably his two best seasons, other than 2004, the past two seasons. He's 25-17 the past two seasons, and has given up far less hits than innings pitched in each of those seasons. http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/6945/career;_ylt=Ans1nAuEKDqN6i2bEaYKqRaFCLcF

He's pretty much proven he can pitch/start...........and some team will pay him high dollar for his services. He made $6.5M last year..............whether he makes $10M or $12M this year remains to be seen.

Is he Lowe or Sabathia? No. Do the Reds need them? Every team needs them. But a OPerez, would definitely be better than anything they've had in the 5th starter role.

I still think they stick with Micah Owings as the 5th starter........but I disagree with your post and the value of Oliver Perez.

Emin3mShady07
10-22-2008, 08:45 AM
You're dreaming if you think the Reds have any chance at Holiday. In fact, you're hallucinating. Go read mlbtraderumors.com and then get back to me. The Yankees are basically going to do whatever it takes to obtain and sign Holiday. Write him off of your Reds list.

As for Ibanez........his name isn't Manny, Vlad, Holiday or Pat Burrell. In fact, he is very little known............and he made $5.5M last year. Why would he make $12M next year? Maybe he'll make more than $7M, but his age is more of a consideration than Manny, Vlad or others. Ibanez will be 37 next June, which is far older than any of the NAME free agent outfielders.

If we're going to live in fantasyland, I'd love for the Reds to move Bruce to CF, then trade for Ichiro Suzuki to play RF, and sign one of the big name Free Agents for LF. That would be good in my book. Solves the cleanup spot in the lineup and the leadoff man. Ain't gonna happen.

As for Oliver Perez, I disagree. http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/baseball/mlb/02/22/perez.arbitration/index.html

Perez just turned 27 in August. He has posted probably his two best seasons, other than 2004, the past two seasons. He's 25-17 the past two seasons, and has given up far less hits than innings pitched in each of those seasons. http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/6945/career;_ylt=Ans1nAuEKDqN6i2bEaYKqRaFCLcF

He's pretty much proven he can pitch/start...........and some team will pay him high dollar for his services. He made $6.5M last year..............whether he makes $10M or $12M this year remains to be seen.

Is he Lowe or Sabathia? No. Do the Reds need them? Every team needs them. But a OPerez, would definitely be better than anything they've had in the 5th starter role.

I still think they stick with Micah Owings as the 5th starter........but I disagree with your post and the value of Oliver Perez.

Oliver Perez has averaged over 4 and 4.8 in his last two years for BB/9 which is absolutely terrible. Also, in his career he has always been prone to giving up homeruns and a move to great American would not help that at all. He had a really high LD% last season - over 22%, but a realtively low BABIP- .280 for that percentage which is certainly a red flag to be aware of about. And you also just used wins to rate a starting pitcher, which has nothing to do with the ability of the pitcher. For example in the one game playoff in the AL, Nick Blackburn gave up one run over 6.3 innings and got the loss. And there are many instances where a pitcher pitches poorly and still gets the win. Win-Loss record is a terrible way to judge a pitcher. I guess Oliver Perez is better than Jake Peavy because he has a better win-loss record:rolleyes:

And I never said the Reds would get Matt Holliday, I think they should at least try, I still think another guy like ordonez is more plausible. Plus you should always take MLBTR with a grain of salt because it is a collection of articles usually written by sports writers who are usually very dumb.

kpresidente
10-22-2008, 10:29 AM
As for Ibanez........his name isn't Manny, Vlad, Holiday or Pat Burrell. In fact, he is very little known............and he made $5.5M last year. Why would he make $12M next year? Maybe he'll make more than $7M, but his age is more of a consideration than Manny, Vlad or others. Ibanez will be 37 next June, which is far older than any of the NAME free agent outfielders.

I think you're going to be surprised by what Ibanez is going to command. Didn't I just read that Mark Ellis signed a contract with a small market team that will pay him 5-6 million/year?

It's hard to find a comparable recent signing, but Garrett Anderson got 11M/year in 2005 and Brian Giles got 9M/year in '06. Both of those guys had similar bats at the time but, of course, better defensive reputations.

Ghosts of 1990
10-22-2008, 10:30 AM
You're dreaming if you think the Reds have any chance at Holiday. In fact, you're hallucinating. Go read mlbtraderumors.com and then get back to me. The Yankees are basically going to do whatever it takes to obtain and sign Holiday. Write him off of your Reds list.

As for Ibanez........his name isn't Manny, Vlad, Holiday or Pat Burrell. In fact, he is very little known............and he made $5.5M last year. Why would he make $12M next year? Maybe he'll make more than $7M, but his age is more of a consideration than Manny, Vlad or others. Ibanez will be 37 next June, which is far older than any of the NAME free agent outfielders.

If we're going to live in fantasyland, I'd love for the Reds to move Bruce to CF, then trade for Ichiro Suzuki to play RF, and sign one of the big name Free Agents for LF. That would be good in my book. Solves the cleanup spot in the lineup and the leadoff man. Ain't gonna happen.

As for Oliver Perez, I disagree. http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/baseball/mlb/02/22/perez.arbitration/index.html

Perez just turned 27 in August. He has posted probably his two best seasons, other than 2004, the past two seasons. He's 25-17 the past two seasons, and has given up far less hits than innings pitched in each of those seasons. http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/6945/career;_ylt=Ans1nAuEKDqN6i2bEaYKqRaFCLcF

He's pretty much proven he can pitch/start...........and some team will pay him high dollar for his services. He made $6.5M last year..............whether he makes $10M or $12M this year remains to be seen.

Is he Lowe or Sabathia? No. Do the Reds need them? Every team needs them. But a OPerez, would definitely be better than anything they've had in the 5th starter role.

I still think they stick with Micah Owings as the 5th starter........but I disagree with your post and the value of Oliver Perez.

agree we won't get Holliday.

But MLBtraderumors.com is a group of guys just like me who started a blog that get together and report sourced information and add opinions. You know that right?

Ghosts of 1990
10-22-2008, 10:31 AM
I think unless we go out and get at least 1 big time bat or do something to add a run producer, everyone here next year will be complaining about the lack of offense. We are going to see the effects of missing adam dunn soon.

Stephenk29
10-22-2008, 05:57 PM
Ryan Zimmerman anyone?

Young, right handed, solid defense. EE to left.

Would probably take an arm and a leg though. But, it is Bowden over there so ya never know.

Emin3mShady07
10-22-2008, 07:34 PM
Zimmerman is a solid baseball player, but he certainly wont have the same impact as an outfielder like Ordonez. He has a career OPS+ of 110 but which is slightly lower than Raul Ibanez career 113 or Ordonez's 129. Zimmerman would cost much less money than those two players, especially Ordonez, but because Ibanez is just a free agent I think he is the better option because the reds don't have to trade any prospects for him.

RedLakerFan24
10-24-2008, 08:35 PM
Chris Dikerson
Edgar Renteria
Joey Votto
Matt Holliday
Jay Bruce
Brandon Phillips
Edwin Encarncion
Ryan Hanigan

Emin3mShady07
10-24-2008, 11:10 PM
Chris Dikerson
Edgar Renteria
Joey Votto
Matt Holliday
Jay Bruce
Brandon Phillips
Edwin Encarncion
Ryan Hanigan

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/stats/players/index.php?lastName=renteria
I would stay away from renteria because he is really aging fast. He had a great year in '07 but that was driven up by an extremely high BABIP of .375. His last three years, his line drive % has been right around 22%, so he is still hitting the ball hard, but his extra-base hits have been decreasing rapidly from 54 in '06 to 34 in '08. His speed is also decreasing and he never was a strong fielder to begin with. The reds would be better off using keppinger or another in-house option than shelling out money to renteria

schmidty622
10-26-2008, 09:45 AM
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/stats/players/index.php?lastName=renteria
I would stay away from renteria because he is really aging fast. He had a great year in '07 but that was driven up by an extremely high BABIP of .375. His last three years, his line drive % has been right around 22%, so he is still hitting the ball hard, but his extra-base hits have been decreasing rapidly from 54 in '06 to 34 in '08. His speed is also decreasing and he never was a strong fielder to begin with. The reds would be better off using keppinger or another in-house option than shelling out money to renteria

Good stuff. I was just about to post that the Reds go after Renteria, and while I still wouldn't cringe if he were to be signed by the Reds, he probably wouldn't be the best fit.

Orlando Cabrera is a guy that I would look at as well. It seems that in the last 3 years the light has really gone on for him and he has become an above average SS. I wouldn't mind seeing him playing short for the Reds for two to three years while we find a more long term option.

Emin3mShady07
10-26-2008, 11:00 AM
Cabrera is a better player than renteria, and the White Sox are undoubtedly going to let him walk because he is a type A free agent and the team with the worst farm system in the league wants to start planning for the future. It all depends on the contract that Cabrera demands. If he want anything above 6 mil/yr I would be reluctant to shell out the money, but there are definitely worse things you can do with with that money. Cabrera is playing good baseball now, but he is also 34, which is something to watch. In the last five years, he had the highest line drive percentage this past season with the white sox, so he can still hit and he has decent patience at the plate for a latin player. His OPS is nothing to rave about, but it has consistently been better than Alex Gonzalez's, except for 2007.

schmidty622
10-26-2008, 01:33 PM
It's probably been said but I would really like to pick up Jeremy Hermida as well. I know there has been some talk about him having a bad attitude but for a young player he has really put up some nice numbers, especially away from the Marlins home field. He would fit in nicely in right.

kpresidente
10-26-2008, 01:49 PM
Cabrera and Rentaria?

Why would you make the Alex Gonzalez mistake twice? Do better than that or don't do anything at all.

schmidty622
10-26-2008, 03:10 PM
Except that those two SS have both had seasons where they were amoung the top producers for their position. Alex Gonzalez has never come anywhere close to being an above average offensive player.

A SS with a career OBP under .300 doesn't have a fit on a club that would like to win now.

RedLakerFan24
10-26-2008, 05:55 PM
Except that those two SS have both had seasons where they were amoung the top producers for their position. Alex Gonzalez has never come anywhere close to being an above average offensive player.

A SS with a career OBP under .300 doesn't have a fit on a club that would like to win now.

A Gon had played on winning teams before joining the Reds

bananaslug22
10-26-2008, 05:58 PM
i agree....

kpresidente
10-26-2008, 07:39 PM
A SS with a career OBP under .300 doesn't have a fit on a club that would like to win now.

Shrug. That's in Florida.

Both Cabrera and AGon have 3-year OPSs around .725. Rentaria has better offensive numbers but is trending downward and doesn't give you the same defense.

Making an even swap at twice the price is what doesn't fit on a team that would like to win now.

Emin3mShady07
10-26-2008, 09:57 PM
http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005/01/cincinnati-reds_24.html
The main thing is that the Reds don't need to be paying Alex gonzalez 5.3M this year. They need to get rid of him so they can spend money in a more productive manner. I believe that keppinger is a good enough player at SS to prevent a signing of a free agent shortstop like Renteria or Cabrera. Kepp has a career .728 OPS in the majors and that is largely a product of his low BABIP of .272 in 2008, despite having a LD% of 21%. Cabrera is a better fielder, but the difference in salary is much more valuable to the reds than the difference in production.

OUReds
10-26-2008, 10:10 PM
Keppinger is is not a major league SS defensively. I don't trust AGon over there either given he is coming off a major knee injury.

A left side of the infield that can actually field the ball is the number one priority of the off-season IMHO.

Emin3mShady07
10-26-2008, 10:23 PM
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/cabreor01.php
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/keppije01.php

Last year, Keppinger was -10 runs above average in the field while cabrera was 11 runs above average. Is that 21 runs worth the expected 5+ million in salary difference?? Those runs would cost the Reds about 4 wins next year, but the extra money would also allow the reds to upgrade offensively in the outfield somewhere. Not to mention cabrera is getting older and I expect his defense to depreciate a little bit from this year to the next.

OUReds
10-26-2008, 10:41 PM
I don't want Cabrera. The answer at SS isn't going to come from free agency.

Separate issue, but I also tend to think that the -10 run FRAA for Kep is....conservative to say the least.

Emin3mShady07
10-26-2008, 10:51 PM
just need a clarification, in this case conservative means you think he is worse correct?

OUReds
10-26-2008, 10:52 PM
Correct

Emin3mShady07
10-26-2008, 11:00 PM
Yeah, I agree with you there, I was just going by baseball prospectus and their fileding statistics are suspect to say the least, but it is hard to find good fielding statistics.

OUReds
10-26-2008, 11:18 PM
Aye it certainly is hard to find good fielding stats.

As an example as to my beef about FRAA (fielding runs above average), BP has Keppinger as +9 runs FRAR (fielding runs above replacement). That means they say Kep is actually a better fielder then most readily available, that is to say replacement level, SS talent.

Thus, the average AAAA SS prospect is (on average) -19 runs worse then an average MLB SS according to BP. But SS is a premium defensive position. AAAA SS prospects that are that poor defensively are no longer SS prospects, they are 2nd or 3rd base prospects who might play SS in a pinch (like Keppinger should be).

In essence I have a problem with trying to define an average replacement fielder. No such beast exists. There are replacement level PLAYERS, but trying to tease out a replacement level fielding accumen is impossible with all the variables.

Ummm, anyway, I hope Keppinger is not the starting SS next year :)

Emin3mShady07
10-26-2008, 11:56 PM
I agree with your points. Kepp's defense is very bad at SS, and I am not sure what the reds should do, so I am going to try to analyze the situation. It depends on which direction they want to go at SS. Do they want a one year stopgap to develop something better? Or do they want to make a move at a guy like Furcal and move Kepp to third and EE to the outfield? And you still need to consider the opportunity cost of those moves. In essence, is it more valuable to add a guy like furcal at SS or an outfielder like Magglio Ordonez in LF? I expect keppinger and furcal to have about a .780-.800 OPS next season while furcal has much better defense. This also allows you to upgrade the defense at third base with kepp switching over. I would expect EE to play left field just as well as ordonez, but Ordonez would probably have an OPS of around .40 points higher than EE, and around .80-.100(at most) points higher than furcal. The difference in defense if the reds go for furcal is about +20 runs at SS and +20 runs at 3B and a wash in LF, although I would expect EE to be a better fielder than Ordonez b/c he is more athletic and younger. If the reds add Ordonez, the difference in OPS between himself and furcal is about 25 runs. So IMO, it makes much more sense to sign furcal than trade for Ordonez.

Emin3mShady07
10-27-2008, 12:08 AM
^^ I forgot to mention that the reds could still sign a good defensive SS. This post holds true if (assuming the reds get Ordonez) Kepp starts the year at SS, but the reds could still sign someone who is much better defensively at SS than kepp. However, I do not believe that there is a FA SS available that can hit well enough for the switch to produce a great amount of value, unless you sign a FA like Furcal who probably would prevent the acquistion of a guy like Ordonez.

OUReds
10-27-2008, 06:36 AM
If you were to blow everything on one guy, Furcal is as good a target as any. As spring training approaches, there will be bargain corner bats out there who can step in for a year in LF or (even better) at 3rd with EE going to LF.

I'd also like to think there is a young SS that can pick it out there who could develop over time into something "acceptable" (or even almost acceptable) offensively without costing an absolute arm and leg, but I don't really have any names. I've seen Hu from LA discussed on the old red guard.

schmidty622
10-27-2008, 09:44 AM
I like Orlando Hudson alot more than Furcal. Yeah he's a 2b but him and Phillips both have the talent to slide over and play SS. I guess the problem there is that Furcal could be the leadoff guy while I don't see Hudson in that role.

Also I don't think this team wants to move Phillips, so that kind of kills that idea.

Emin3mShady07
10-27-2008, 11:17 AM
http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/index.php?view=fielding&linesToDisplay=200&orderBy=zone_rating&direction=DESC&qual_filter=1&season_filter%5B%5D=2008&league_filter%5B%5D=All&team_filter%5B%5D=All&pos_filter%5B%5D=4&Submit=Submit

Phillips is a much better fielder than Hudson. If the reds sign hudson and move phillips to short, the are probably worse off than keeping kepp at short and acquiring a big time outfielder. Kepp actually had a higher RZR at short than Hudson had at second base. Plus you need to factor in how many runs worse defensively Phillips would be at short compared to him at second base. IF the reds really wanted to move phillips to SS then the best move IMO would be to move kepp to second base rather than sign a FA second baseman. but there are better options than moving phillips to SS.

dougflynn23
10-28-2008, 08:40 AM
Here would be my plan as GM for 2009.

1) Resign Jerry Hairston Jr and Jeremy Affeldt . Affeldt to a 2 or 3 year deal and Hairston to a 2 year deal with lots of performance incentives.

2) Sign FAs Casey Blake and Juan Cruz to 2 or 3 year deals.

3) Trade Homer Bailey to the White Sox in exchange for OF Nick Swisher & minor league OF John Shelby Jr.

4) Trade EE to Texas straight up for C Jarrod Saltalamacchia.

5) Sign minor league FA Josh Phelps.

================================================== ====
Roster

C : Hanigan, Saltalamacchia
INF : Votto, Phelps, Phillips, Gonzalez, Blake, Keppinger
OF : Bruce, Swisher, Dickerson, Freel, Hairston
SP : Harang, Volquez, Arroyo, Cueto
RP : Cordero, Burton, Cruz, Affeldt, Bray

Owings, Ramirez & Maloney compete for #5 starter role with Owings & Ramirez being candidates for bullpen if Maloney wins the job. Nick Masset, Mike Lincoln, Josh Roenicke and possibly Owings/Ramirez compete for last 2 bullpen slots.

================================================== ====

Rationale

* Swisher was brutal in 2008, but coming to GABP and playing LF will help him a great deal. He also adds some personality to a dry team, and offers a good ROI at a nice salary locked in for 2 -3 more years. He's going to provide you with 25+ HR, a .370+ OPB and solid defense in LF.

* I'm a huge Casey Blake fan. He will give you 600+ PA's and go 24 HR, 85-90 RBI, a .270+ BA and bring a veteran, winning face to a team who needs that.

* EE for Saltalamacchia is a risk, but one the Reds need to take. A Salty-Hanigan combo at C is soild, and Saltalamacchia has breakout ability. EE can be easily backfilled (and IMO upgraded) by Blake.

* Juan Cruz is an upgrade over David Weathers. I think Affeldt can be convinced to stay and put down some roots - he just had the best overall year of his career here.

* I have no issue calling in Dickerson, Hairston & Freel and telling them it's an open competion in CF, all will get an equal opportunity, and that I will ride the hottest hand if one catches fire until he cools off. All 3 would get adequate PT backing up at other positions.

* Under the Radar : Josh Phelps. Proven bat, RH 1B/LF who can do the 3rd catcher job. Look at his 2007 Pirate/Yankee stats to see his bench value.

* I give Gonzalez the shot at SS as I will get nothing for him in a trade. He'll hit .260 with 15 HR, but if his injuries limit him defensively he can't be the SS.

Emin3mShady07
10-28-2008, 04:11 PM
The White Sox aren't going to trade Swisher unless they get an offer that totally overwhelms them, which unfortunately(for me as a white sox fan) probably means a useless speed guy - like the Carlos Lee Scott Podsednik trade. Chicago barely has a CF as it is and trading swisher only worsens that situation. Swisher did have a brutal year in 2008, but US cellular is roughly as beneficial, if not more, to hitters as Great American. GABP has a park factor of 104 in one year and multi years which means it is easier to hit there then somewhere like Comerica Park in Detroit. The Cell has a one year factor of 103 and a multi year factor of 105 so the difference in park is negligible. Swisher will most likely rebound because he set a career high in line drive percentage 20.9% and a career low in BABIP .249 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/stats/players/index.php?lastName=swisher

Anyways, I doubt swisher will be traded.

dougflynn23
10-28-2008, 06:15 PM
The White Sox aren't going to trade Swisher unless they get an offer that totally overwhelms them, which unfortunately(for me as a white sox fan) probably means a useless speed guy - like the Carlos Lee Scott Podsednik trade. Chicago barely has a CF as it is and trading swisher only worsens that situation. Swisher did have a brutal year in 2008, but US cellular is roughly as beneficial, if not more, to hitters as Great American. GABP has a park factor of 104 in one year and multi years which means it is easier to hit there then somewhere like Comerica Park in Detroit. The Cell has a one year factor of 103 and a multi year factor of 105 so the difference in park is negligible. Swisher will most likely rebound because he set a career high in line drive percentage 20.9% and a career low in BABIP .249 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/stats/players/index.php?lastName=swisher

Anyways, I doubt swisher will be traded. Nick Swisher is not going to play CF for Ozzie Guillen. He may well stay with Chicago, but it will be in LF or 1B.

redsfandan
10-31-2008, 05:26 PM
Here would be my plan as GM for 2009.
...
4) Trade EE to Texas straight up for C Jarrod Saltalamacchia.

* EE for Saltalamacchia is a risk, but one the Reds need to take. A Salty-Hanigan combo at C is soild, and Saltalamacchia has breakout ability. EE can be easily backfilled (and IMO upgraded) by Blake.

the deal needs to make sense for both teams and a deal that would make alot more sense for texas would be Saltalamacchia and another player to florida for Scott Olsen and Kevin Gregg.

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sports/baseball/marlins/sfl-flspmarlins31sboct31,0,739756.story