Which free agent starting pitchers should the Reds pursue?

[ChatterRed]

Well mlbtraderumors.com did their Red Sox outlook today (link: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/10/of...ou-12.html). What's scary is that their 2007 payroll was at $143 million, 2008 was at $133 million, and they're projecting their 2009 payroll (after arbitration) to be around $100 million, which tells you they have money to spend.

Again, according to mlbtraderumors.com (link: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/10/ca...atest.html), Derek Lowe's preferred destination is the Red Sox.

Sabathia most likely will be a Yankee, but there are strong rumors that the Giants, Mets and Dodgers are very interested in signing him and they have money to spend. Link: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/10/he...atest.html

Most of what I have read has the Dodgers, Mets, and Cubs pursuing Manny Ramirez. But no one is interested in going over 4 years.

Also, Mark Texeira is going to be heavily pursued by the Yankees, but the BoSox will probably getting into the bidding war to up his price.

The Yanks are also considered the frontrunners to trade for Matt Holiday and sign him longterm.

If we go down the 2009 free agents: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2007/12/20...ree-a.html
Going pitcher by pitcher:
Kris Benson - was out of baseball this year, possibly with an injury
AJ Burnett - quality pitcher who can opt out of his contract with Toronto, will come at a price
Paul Byrd - 38 years old in December; his e.r.a is approaching 5.00 and he is on the decline; just say no
Roger Clemens - steroids and 46 years old
Matt Clement - has not pitched since 2006
Bartolo Colon - will be 36 in May; Not the pitcher he once was.
Ryan Dempster - had the best season of his career in a contract season, hmmm; was a reliever in the previous 4 seasons; Cubs probably re-sign him
Shawn Estes - injured and out of 2007; started 8 games in 2008 with mediocre to poor results
Josh Fogg - not the answer
Freddy Garcia - has only pitched 73 innings the last 2 seasons coming off an injury; not the answer
Jon Garland - reminds me of Eric Milton....lots of wins but his other stats aren't that good; this season's WHIP 1.51 and batting average against - .303; just say no
Tom Glavine - injured; may retire; if he comes back, it will be with Atlanta and probably an incentive laden contract
Mike Hampton - is 36 years old; started 13 games last year with marginal results; did not pitch in 2006 or 2007 coming off injury
Mark Hendrickson - has a career e.r.a. of 5.07 with opponents batting .290 against him; just say no
Livan Hernandez - not much mileage left in that arm - he's been pitching since he was 22, currently 34; teams have batted over .300 against him the past 2 years
Orlando Hernandez - had surgery in March and was out all season; had good 2007 and 2004 seasons but rocky 2005 and 2006 seasons; 39; just say no
Jason Jennings - had season ending surgery on his elbow back in April; just say no
Randy Johnson - even at age 45 had a sub-4.00 e.r.a. with teams batting only .260 against him; amazing; on the verge of 300 wins and 5,000 K's.
John Lackey - 6 winning seasons out of 7; 91-63 career record; 3.81 career e.r.a. pitching in the AL; in 2 postseason starts had an e.r.a. of 2.63 against Boston
Jon Lieber - 39 years old; has barely started the last 2 seasons while becoming more of a reliever; is currently on the DL
Braden Looper - 34 years old; had a 4.16 e.r.a. this year for the Cards; was a reliever up until the past 2 seasons; marginal results - nothing special
Derek Lowe - already discussed
Greg Maddux - rumors he will retire or become player coach for San Diego
Pedro Martinez - 37 years old; was injured nearly all of '07; posted 5.60 e.r.a. this year; looks like he's done in my opinion
Sergio Mitre - became a starter this season after 4 previous seasons of relieving; opponents batted .303 against him; just say no
Jamie Moyer - age 46? Still posted a 3.71 e.r.a. and went 16-7 for the Phillies; Lefthander........can you say 1-year deal? Opponents batted .262 against him...hmm
Mark Mulder - just had his remaining year bought out by the Cards; just say no
Mike Mussina - will either retire or return to the Yankees....pretty much already agreed upon by both parties
Carl Pavano - missed '06 with an injury; pitched and started 9 times the last 2 seasons with bad results; just say no
Brad Penny - on the DL with shoulder soreness; had sub-4.00 e.r.a's in '04, '05, and '07 as a starter pitching close to 200 innings; rightie
Odalis Perez - 32; has a high WHIP (1.48) and batting average against at .287 last season, .318 the season before; leftie; I'd say no
Oliver Perez - 27; a leftie I'd pursue; has given up less hits (by alot) than innings pitched the last 2 seasons with opponents batting poorly against him;
Andy Pettitie - 37; his WHIP and e.r.a., including batting average against him are climbing the past 3 seasons; appears to be on the decline
Sidney Ponson - 32; has not posted a sub-5.00 e.r.a. since 2003; his WHIP the last 5 seasons is atrocious; just say no
Mark Prior - 27; has not pitched since 2006
Kenny Rogers - 44; had a disastrous 2008 season; he's done
Glendon Rusch - 34; primarily a reliever with poor e.r.a. and batting average against; just say no
CC Sabathia - 28; already discussed
Curt Schilling - 42; out for the season with Tommy John surgery; most likely finished
Ben Sheets - 30; injury prone; has averaged only 150 innings pitched the past 4 seasons, but did pitch 198 this year (contract year)
Tim Wakefield - 42; BoSox have a $4 million option on him
Kip Wells - 32; has not had a sub-5.00 e.r.a. since 2004; just say no
Randy Wolf - 32; his first 6 seasons in mlb averaged 27.5 starts and 173 innings pitched; since then 19 starts and 107 innings pitched; leftie; consistent

Burnett (RH), Dempster (RH), RJohnson (LH), Lackey (RH), Lowe (RH), Moyer (LH), Penny (RH), OPerez (LH), Sabathia (LH), Sheets (RH), Wolf (LH) are the only quality free agent starting pitchers.

Penny is coming off shoulder soreness. He would be a last option and only if healthy. I'm not really all that interested in him.

Sabathia and Lowe will most likely be off the table. So eliminating those two and Penny, leaves you with 8 pitchers. Dempster and Randy Johnson most likely sign with their current teams, that leaves 6. Sheets will probably not be available, and I'd only want him with incentives, although I think he's a great pitcher. Now we're down to 5 - Burnett, Lackey, Moyer, Oliver Perez, and Randy Wolf. Wolf, Perez, and Moyer are lefties.

I don't see the Reds getting in on any of the really high priced quality starters, so this is what I see.

I say pursue Perez first, then Wolf, then Lackey. I think those 3 will be the most financially feasible.

[redsfandan]

sorry but i honestly don't see the need. imo, we have 5 solid starters now. i'd only pursue one if arroyo was dealt. (arroyo is who i'd be most willing to deal if i had to deal one) but all i want is another bat and we have enough money to work with for that.

fwiw, out of your 3 picks (perez, wolf, lackey) i think lackey won't be cheap and i'm not sure perez/wolf would be that much better than any of the 5 we have slotted now for the price we'd have to pay for them.

i have owings as our #5 right now and ramirez #6 with how they do in the spring the determining factor. they both make less than a million. but perez and wolf will probably cost at least around $10 million and i just don't think they would be THAT much better to justify the extra cost.

just cuz we have money to spend doesn't mean we have to spend ALL of it now and it's probably better that we don't. we could always use some of that money to land someone next summer if the reds do surprise next year and i don't think they need another starter for that to be possible.

[redsfandan]

btw, it's not that i think that perez and wolf are bad (although what perez would do in our park may be interesting) as much as i think that we'd be paying just for more experienced pitchers and i think it's possible that owings/ramirez could be good enough. i'd rather hold off for now.

[ChatterRed]

sorry but i honestly don't see the need. imo, we have 5 solid starters now. i'd only pursue one if arroyo was dealt. (arroyo is who i'd be most willing to deal if i had to deal one) but all i want is another bat and we have enough money to work with for that.

fwiw, out of your 3 picks (perez, wolf, lackey) i think lackey won't be cheap and i'm not sure perez/wolf would be that much better than any of the 5 we have slotted now for the price we'd have to pay for them.

i have owings as our #5 right now and ramirez #6 with how they do in the spring the determining factor. they both make less than a million. but perez and wolf will probably cost at least around $10 million and i just don't think they would be THAT much better to justify the extra cost.

just cuz we have money to spend doesn't mean we have to spend ALL of it now and it's probably better that we don't. we could always use some of that money to land someone next summer if the reds do surprise next year and i don't think they need another starter for that to be possible.

Perez is rumored to be around the 4 year $56M range. I'd do that.

[snowstorm]

I'd stay away from Dempster. I know he had a great year, but his career numbers say that it is anomaly. He has a career 4.55 ERA and a WHIP of 1.49. Contract year too. Buyer Beware! The only good thing I can say is that his WHIP has gone down 2 seasons in a row. Maybe he's getting healthy? I don't know, but I'd stay away from him anyway.

I like Oliver Perez because of his BA against and few hits per IP. His 105 BB this past season concern me -- what he's not allowing in hits, he's giving up with walks. Is 24 HR's allowed in 194 IP too many, considering he'll be pitching in GAB? Some things to think about.

[gedred69]

I say, stand with what we got on the mound. Find another OF with a good bat if possible. A .300 lead-off hitter, or a 30 HR guy who can hit at least for a .270 avg. (And of course be a defensive up-grade from Dunn). Not much to choose from like either of those wishes. Reds would have to give something good in return, somebody who would make most of us say, "Ouch"!!...........

[Emin3mShady07]

I don't think that the reds need to add another starting pitcher in the offseason. They Already have 5 guys that can make a good starting rotation with Arroyo, Harang, Cueto, Volzquez, and now Micah Owings. They also have several young starters thst could develop, including Homer Bailey, so It would be better for the reds to spend their extra money elsewhere. Oliver perez has always had control problems with a career BB/9 rate of over 4.5and couple that with his high homerun rate of 1.3/9 and it is asking for trouble in Great American, especially when there are better in-house options

[BLEEDS]

Going pitcher by pitcher:
Kris Benson - was out of baseball this year, possibly with an injury
AJ Burnett - quality pitcher who can opt out of his contract with Toronto, will come at a price
Paul Byrd - 38 years old in December; his e.r.a is approaching 5.00 and he is on the decline; just say no
Roger Clemens - steroids and 46 years old
Matt Clement - has not pitched since 2006
Bartolo Colon - will be 36 in May; Not the pitcher he once was.
Ryan Dempster - had the best season of his career in a contract season, hmmm; was a reliever in the previous 4 seasons; Cubs probably re-sign him
Shawn Estes - injured and out of 2007; started 8 games in 2008 with mediocre to poor results
Josh Fogg - not the answer
Freddy Garcia - has only pitched 73 innings the last 2 seasons coming off an injury; not the answer
Jon Garland - reminds me of Eric Milton....lots of wins but his other stats aren't that good; this season's WHIP 1.51 and batting average against - .303; just say no
Tom Glavine - injured; may retire; if he comes back, it will be with Atlanta and probably an incentive laden contract
Mike Hampton - is 36 years old; started 13 games last year with marginal results; did not pitch in 2006 or 2007 coming off injury
Mark Hendrickson - has a career e.r.a. of 5.07 with opponents batting .290 against him; just say no
Livan Hernandez - not much mileage left in that arm - he's been pitching since he was 22, currently 34; teams have batted over .300 against him the past 2 years
Orlando Hernandez - had surgery in March and was out all season; had good 2007 and 2004 seasons but rocky 2005 and 2006 seasons; 39; just say no
Jason Jennings - had season ending surgery on his elbow back in April; just say no
Randy Johnson - even at age 45 had a sub-4.00 e.r.a. with teams batting only .260 against him; amazing; on the verge of 300 wins and 5,000 K's.
John Lackey - 6 winning seasons out of 7; 91-63 career record; 3.81 career e.r.a. pitching in the AL; in 2 postseason starts had an e.r.a. of 2.63 against Boston
Jon Lieber - 39 years old; has barely started the last 2 seasons while becoming more of a reliever; is currently on the DL
Braden Looper - 34 years old; had a 4.16 e.r.a. this year for the Cards; was a reliever up until the past 2 seasons; marginal results - nothing special
Derek Lowe - already discussed
Greg Maddux - rumors he will retire or become player coach for San Diego
Pedro Martinez - 37 years old; was injured nearly all of '07; posted 5.60 e.r.a. this year; looks like he's done in my opinion
Sergio Mitre - became a starter this season after 4 previous seasons of relieving; opponents batted .303 against him; just say no
Jamie Moyer - age 46? Still posted a 3.71 e.r.a. and went 16-7 for the Phillies; Lefthander........can you say 1-year deal? Opponents batted .262 against him...hmm
Mark Mulder - just had his remaining year bought out by the Cards; just say no
Mike Mussina - will either retire or return to the Yankees....pretty much already agreed upon by both parties
Carl Pavano - missed '06 with an injury; pitched and started 9 times the last 2 seasons with bad results; just say no
Brad Penny - on the DL with shoulder soreness; had sub-4.00 e.r.a's in '04, '05, and '07 as a starter pitching close to 200 innings; rightie
Odalis Perez - 32; has a high WHIP (1.48) and batting average against at .287 last season, .318 the season before; leftie; I'd say no
Oliver Perez - 27; a leftie I'd pursue; has given up less hits (by alot) than innings pitched the last 2 seasons with opponents batting poorly against him;
Andy Pettitie - 37; his WHIP and e.r.a., including batting average against him are climbing the past 3 seasons; appears to be on the decline
Sidney Ponson - 32; has not posted a sub-5.00 e.r.a. since 2003; his WHIP the last 5 seasons is atrocious; just say no
Mark Prior - 27; has not pitched since 2006
Kenny Rogers - 44; had a disastrous 2008 season; he's done
Glendon Rusch - 34; primarily a reliever with poor e.r.a. and batting average against; just say no
CC Sabathia - 28; already discussed
Curt Schilling - 42; out for the season with Tommy John surgery; most likely finished
Ben Sheets - 30; injury prone; has averaged only 150 innings pitched the past 4 seasons, but did pitch 198 this year (contract year)
Tim Wakefield - 42; BoSox have a $4 million option on him
Kip Wells - 32; has not had a sub-5.00 e.r.a. since 2004; just say no
Randy Wolf - 32; his first 6 seasons in mlb averaged 27.5 starts and 173 innings pitched; since then 19 starts and 107 innings pitched; leftie; consistent

Burnett (RH), Dempster (RH), RJohnson (LH), Lackey (RH), Lowe (RH), Moyer (LH), Penny (RH), OPerez (LH), Sabathia (LH), Sheets (RH), Wolf (LH) are the only quality free agent starting pitchers.

Penny is coming off shoulder soreness. He would be a last option and only if healthy. I'm not really all that interested in him.

Sabathia and Lowe will most likely be off the table. So eliminating those two and Penny, leaves you with 8 pitchers. Dempster and Randy Johnson most likely sign with their current teams, that leaves 6. Sheets will probably not be available, and I'd only want him with incentives, although I think he's a great pitcher. Now we're down to 5 - Burnett, Lackey, Moyer, Oliver Perez, and Randy Wolf. Wolf, Perez, and Moyer are lefties.

I don't see the Reds getting in on any of the really high priced quality starters, so this is what I see.

I say pursue Perez first, then Wolf, then Lackey. I think those 3 will be the most financially feasible.

I'd add Garcia and Jennings in there, even though they're coming off injuries. That's the kind of low-risk(lower$$)/high reqard gambles you should take.

Of the remaining, I think Wolf/Perez/Moyer - in that order - are what this rotation needs, a soft-tossing lefty, to mix up lefties and keep them off-balance in a series. No Eric Miltons who groove 80's fastballs in there to pounce on.

Volquez
Harang
Wolf/Perez/Moyer
Arroyo
Cueto

Now you're talking...

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[Hondo]

Don't add Perez or Wolf... This is a fricking Joke!

Bob C has Money... Has Dunn and Griffeys contracts off the Books.

SPEND some money... Quit buying the Dave Williams and Josh Foggs of the WORLD...

Move #1 TRADE FOR JAKE PEAVY

MOVE #2 TRADE for Russell Martin


By the way... John Lackey has a option that the Angels will probably pick up I think...

[BLEEDS]

Don't add Perez or Wolf... This is a fricking Joke!

Bob C has Money... Has Dunn and Griffeys contracts off the Books.

SPEND some money... Quit buying the Dave Williams and Josh Foggs of the WORLD...

Move #1 TRADE FOR JAKE PEAVY

MOVE #2 TRADE for Russell Martin


By the way... John Lackey has a option that the Angels will probably pick up I think...

We're talking FREE AGENTS, try to stay on topic...

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[Bip Roberts]

Id try for Lowe but other than that ill stick with what we already have and go with the in house 5th starters.

[Orodle]

Unless its CC or Lowe I dont want any of those guys. Many you would have to take a chance on and the Reds not having the Yankees payroll cant afford to take a chance on someone and he not produce or get hurt.

[ChatterRed]

Part of the reason I'd like to sign a free agent for the 5th spot is that I foresee injuries during the year, and having Micah Owings in the bullpen to move into the starter's role, would be good insurance.

[Hondo]

We're talking FREE AGENTS, try to stay on topic...

PEACE

-BLEEDS

I understand BLEEDS

But this team wastes money on Miltons, Williams, Foggs, etc...

Wouldn't it be better to spend on a PROVEN Winner?

Like trading for Peavy or even Signing C.C. Sabethia to an enormous contract?

Signing Perez, Wolf, or any other pitcher in that realm is just turning your tires and wasting time and money imo...

[Eric_the_Red]

This organization can in no way sign CC Sabathia or a similar blockbuster free agent. Haven't we already learned the perils of spending most of the team salary on 1 or 2 players and filling in the rest of the roster with low-priced scrubs?

[redsfandan]

... Many (of the pitchers listed) you would have to take a chance on and the Reds not having the Yankees payroll cant afford to take a chance on someone and he not produce or get hurt.


This organization can in no way sign CC Sabathia or a similar blockbuster free agent. Haven't we already learned the perils of spending most of the team salary on 1 or 2 players and filling in the rest of the roster with low-priced scrubs?

i agree 100% on both counts. it's just not realistic or wise. the inequality of team budgets in major league baseball is still a joke so small and mid market teams can't just shrug off a wasted carl pavano contract and spend more money on a replacement like the clubs with deeper pockets can.

there are alot of those pitchers that i'd have some interest in depending on the money and circumstances. some will end up signing one year minor league contracts built around incentives and i'd love it the reds did that with one or two and if the reds can get lucky with a decent solid mor sp for $5-8 million that can work. but if the reds take on one big contract and only one it HAS to be an offensive player.

the people that want one or two starting pitcher(s) that would easily cost a total of $20 million+ plus a bat that would cost another $10m don't want the reds to be the tampa of '09. they want the reds to be the yankees of '09.

[gedred69]

I just gotta' ask. Is this a site about the Reds or is it a site for fantasy leaguers?

[kpresidente]

This organization can in no way sign CC Sabathia or a similar blockbuster free agent. Haven't we already learned the perils of spending most of the team salary on 1 or 2 players and filling in the rest of the roster with low-priced scrubs?

A large part of the problem during the Griffey era was that we weren't producing those players throughout the system. Also, Griff's injuries were historic. You can't just look at that situation and assume things will play out the same next time, or even that the risk of that sort of thing is high.

A mid-market team can sign a big-name FA here and there. They just have to be critical pieces, like your 3rd hitter or an ace. Those kind of players are rare. What you have to avoid is the contracts like Cordero, Gonzo, Freel, Stanton, etc. These aren't critical pieces and you can find those kind of players, more or less, within your own system (or you should be able to).

Sabbathia is realistic. He's told the media that he doesn't care where he plays. That doesn't mean he's the right guy to sign, but there's nothing wrong with bringing up the name.

[Orodle]

This organization can in no way sign CC Sabathia or a similar blockbuster free agent. Haven't we already learned the perils of spending most of the team salary on 1 or 2 players and filling in the rest of the roster with low-priced scrubs?

I agree to a certain degree but Sabathia is well beyond any of the high priced pitchers the Reds have ever signed.

That being said I dont realisticly see it happening but merely saying he is a free agent that I would want....aka I wouldnt want many on this year's possible FAs

[Eric_the_Red]

A mid-market team can sign a big-name FA here and there. They just have to be critical pieces, like your 3rd hitter or an ace. Those kind of players are rare. What you have to avoid is the contracts like Cordero, Gonzo, Freel, Stanton, etc. These aren't critical pieces and you can find those kind of players, more or less, within your own system (or you should be able to).

Sabbathia is realistic. He's told the media that he doesn't care where he plays. That doesn't mean he's the right guy to sign, but there's nothing wrong with bringing up the name.

Can you give me some examples of mid-market teams signing a top dollar free agent? I'm sure there have been a few, very rare instances, but I can't come up with any off the top of my head.

[Emin3mShady07]

Can you give me some examples of mid-market teams signing a top dollar free agent? I'm sure there have been a few, very rare instances, but I can't come up with any off the top of my head.

How about the Tigers a few years back signing Magglio Ordonez when they didn't have a huge team salary or the Houston Astros signing Carlos Lee? I am not sure if those two players are top dollar free agents now, but at the time I thought they were

[kpresidente]

Can you give me some examples of mid-market teams signing a top dollar free agent? I'm sure there have been a few, very rare instances, but I can't come up with any off the top of my head.

I think a lot of the time big name guys don't want to go somewhere out midwest and play. These people are prima-donna's with a lot of money to burn. They want to be in LA or New York or Chicago, places like that.

[kpresidente]

Can you give me some examples of mid-market teams signing a top dollar free agent? I'm sure there have been a few, very rare instances, but I can't come up with any off the top of my head.


Well, there's San Francisco and Zito...


Not free agents but big extensions....

Seattle and Ichiro
Detroit with Miguel Cabrera
Colorado with Todd Helton
Toronto and Vernon Wells and Scott Rolen

[redsfandan]

the 2009 option for john lackey has been picked up for $9 million. not a big surprise to me but we can cross him off now.

[schmidty622]

I'd go after Oliver Perez and try and flip Arroyo for a bat. Doubt it happens. But thats what I'd do.

[dougflynn23]

The primary target I'd be pursuing is not a starter but rather Juan Cruz, in my opinion one of the best set-up relievers in MLB. He'd be a great addition.

[schmidty622]

The primary target I'd be pursuing is not a starter but rather Juan Cruz, in my opinion one of the best set-up relievers in MLB. He'd be a great addition.

Which is why he won't be a Red.