Why I'm Bearish on Encarnacion

[kpresidente]

EE had a really strange season and it took me a while to come to any conclusion on what I thought about him. If you look at his numbers on the surface, this is what jumps out at you...

HRs are up - 16 > 26
BA is down - .289 > 251
OBP is down - .356 > .340 this is driven by the BA because....
Walks are up - 36 > 61
Ks are up - 86 > 102
BABiP was way down - .322 > .264

If you take the BABiP as being unlucky, then you have great things to expect from him next year, as in, a continuation of power and walk increases, plus a revitalized BA and OBP.

You might expect a line of .280/.360/.500.

I don't think that's the case, though. I think he's trying to pull the ball in order to generate power, and it's killing him against RHP. Note his the change in BA and SLG on hits up the middle (EE never goes opposite field, never has)...

2007 - .331 and .470 in 251 PAs
2008 - .241 and .354 in 215 PAs

That's a big change! Not only was he hitting fewer balls the other way, but he was less successful with it. They're pitching him away and he's trying to pull the ball, rather than going with the pitch. Unless you have a whole lot of power, that's a bad habit to get into.

I also think that explains the increase in BBs and Ks. He saw 3.7 pitches/PA in '07 and 3.9 in '08. But I don't think that's a sign of any real improvement in plate discipline. I think in '07 he was working the count, but in '08 he was just waiting for something he could pull. That drives him deep into the count, but not in his favor. The difference is that in the latter situation, the pitcher is controlling the AB, whereas the batter's controlling it in the former.

Plus, I think the power is a mirage. If you check out this site...http://hittrackeronline.com/index.php?h=CIN&p=&b=...you'll see that EE had 11 home runs that were either "just enough" or "lucky" homers, the most of any Reds hitter. You have to wonder if he can keep that up.

The big negative here is his LD%, which has been dropping for 4 years...

2005 - 24.0%
2006 - 21.1%
2007 - 18.7%
2008 - 15.9%

This tells me his low-BABiP isn't bad luck, it's his approach to hitting. When the teams really figure out that all he's looking to do is pull the ball, they're going to work him outside all the time, and might even employ a shift defensively. That's going to drive his numbers down and if he doesn't get the lucky homers again, it could get real ugly. Maybe as bad as something like...

.240/.330/.425

Another thing to note here, and this is a wild speculation, but EE's first home run this year was a 3-run game-winner against Arizona in game 2. It was the first walk-off home run of his career. I wonder if that event sparked a change in his approach, as in he all of the sudden saw himself as a power hitter, and so he started swinging for the fences.


All-in-all, I might be looking to move EE this offseason if I was WJ. I think he's trending downward at the plate despite his age (masked in his OPS by some lucky HRs). His defense is putrid with no signs of improvement. He may be no better than a platoon player at this point, and not at 3B, either.

If you do keep him, they need to bat him 2nd in the order, rather than 5th or 6th, in the hopes that will take the pressure to drive in runs off him. He hit .234 w/RiSP last year, down from .360 in 2007, which tells me he can't handle the pressure. If he sees his job as just getting on base, maybe he can return to his 2007 form. I could maybe settle for that given his salary and despite the bad defense.

Any thoughts?

[ChatterRed]

I've always liked EE, but got down on him a bit last season. I think this upcoming season is a big one for him, in terms of his future with the Reds. His defense must improve tremendously. He must build on his offensive numbers also. He needs to drive in runs, and not just with HR's.

I think he has solid potential, he's still young, and he definitely could be on the verge of breaking out.

The Reds have other candidates in the minors to fill third base, down the road, so his time is ticking.

What could be interesting is if one or two of the minor league third basemen, have break out seasons in the minors next year, and so does EE. What do you do then? It's the best of both worlds, I would think.

[Emin3mShady07]

The drop in line drive percentage is certainly a red flag. But if it is because EE's approach to hitting is bad, that can be fixed in a single offseason. These major league guys have the ability to watch every single one of their PA's and their coaches have that ability to. If EE's approach/swing is problematic someone in the organization will notice it. This is one of the very few times scouting or watching a player is almost as beneficial as looking at the numbers. I think that EE has a solid enough track record in the minors as well as in the majors to produce an OPS in the .820-.840 range for the next few seasons at the very least. His BABIP in 2008 was still low for his LD% so I would think that he would have better numbers next year. And in regards to his # of homers that had just enough, I would suppose that his HR total would drop, but I doubt those homers would turn into outs, they would probably be doubles. PLus you never know what exercises EE is doing in the offseason to improve his strength/bat speed that would give him a little extra distance on every ball he hits.

[Kingspoint]

EE had a really strange season and it took me a while to come to any conclusion on what I thought about him. If you look at his numbers on the surface, this is what jumps out at you...

HRs are up - 16 > 26
BA is down - .289 > 251
OBP is down - .356 > .340 this is driven by the BA because....
Walks are up - 36 > 61
Ks are up - 86 > 102
BABiP was way down - .322 > .264

If you take the BABiP as being unlucky, then you have great things to expect from him next year, as in, a continuation of power and walk increases, plus a revitalized BA and OBP.

You might expect a line of .280/.360/.500.

I don't think that's the case, though. I think he's trying to pull the ball in order to generate power, and it's killing him against RHP. Note his the change in BA and SLG on hits up the middle (EE never goes opposite field, never has)...

2007 - .331 and .470 in 251 PAs
2008 - .241 and .354 in 215 PAs

That's a big change! Not only was he hitting fewer balls the other way, but he was less successful with it. They're pitching him away and he's trying to pull the ball, rather than going with the pitch. Unless you have a whole lot of power, that's a bad habit to get into.

I also think that explains the increase in BBs and Ks. He saw 3.7 pitches/PA in '07 and 3.9 in '08. But I don't think that's a sign of any real improvement in plate discipline. I think in '07 he was working the count, but in '08 he was just waiting for something he could pull. That drives him deep into the count, but not in his favor. The difference is that in the latter situation, the pitcher is controlling the AB, whereas the batter's controlling it in the former.

Plus, I think the power is a mirage. If you check out this site...http://hittrackeronline.com/index.php?h=CIN&p=&b=...you'll see that EE had 11 home runs that were either "just enough" or "lucky" homers, the most of any Reds hitter. You have to wonder if he can keep that up.

The big negative here is his LD%, which has been dropping for 4 years...

2005 - 24.0%
2006 - 21.1%
2007 - 18.7%
2008 - 15.9%

This tells me his low-BABiP isn't bad luck, it's his approach to hitting. When the teams really figure out that all he's looking to do is pull the ball, they're going to work him outside all the time, and might even employ a shift defensively. That's going to drive his numbers down and if he doesn't get the lucky homers again, it could get real ugly. Maybe as bad as something like...

.240/.330/.425

Another thing to note here, and this is a wild speculation, but EE's first home run this year was a 3-run game-winner against Arizona in game 2. It was the first walk-off home run of his career. I wonder if that event sparked a change in his approach, as in he all of the sudden saw himself as a power hitter, and so he started swinging for the fences.


All-in-all, I might be looking to move EE this offseason if I was WJ. I think he's trending downward at the plate despite his age (masked in his OPS by some lucky HRs). His defense is putrid with no signs of improvement. He may be no better than a platoon player at this point, and not at 3B, either.

If you do keep him, they need to bat him 2nd in the order, rather than 5th or 6th, in the hopes that will take the pressure to drive in runs off him. He hit .234 w/RiSP last year, down from .360 in 2007, which tells me he can't handle the pressure. If he sees his job as just getting on base, maybe he can return to his 2007 form. I could maybe settle for that given his salary and despite the bad defense.

Any thoughts?

Nice analysis. Just add one thing to it though. Put in the "Dusty" factor and what he told EE he wants out of him from his at-bats. That has to fit in somewhere in all of this.

[gedred69]

I thought highly of him, but more and more I'm seeing the equation; EE=DD.

For you old enough to remember, DD=Danny Driessen. (Or Dumb Danny, or just plain Dumb Dumb).

[flash]

Excelent analysis which I agree with. If the Reds are interested in developing him I believe it would be wise to try and sign Moises Alou. I know he is old, but he comes from a family that really knows the game. For the past few years EE has had no one to really look to for leadership. There are no hispanic coaches, and outside of Valentin, and Gonzalez not other Hispanic players. I don't really think EE can relate to them. Although the Reds have Volquez, Cueto, and Cordero, I don't think they can help him either.

(Plus Alou is a right hand bat that might be able to spell Vooto at first. I think Alou still eats left-handers up.) i know no one else has mentioned him, but I think he might be able to help the club a lot.

[Emin3mShady07]

Excelent analysis which I agree with. If the Reds are interested in developing him I believe it would be wise to try and sign Moises Alou. I know he is old, but he comes from a family that really knows the game. For the past few years EE has had no one to really look to for leadership. There are no hispanic coaches, and outside of Valentin, and Gonzalez not other Hispanic players. I don't really think EE can relate to them. Although the Reds have Volquez, Cueto, and Cordero, I don't think they can help him either.

(Plus Alou is a right hand bat that might be able to spell Vooto at first. I think Alou still eats left-handers up.) i know no one else has mentioned him, but I think he might be able to help the club a lot.

Alou, when healthy has been a very good hitter. From '04-'07 his lowest OPS was .916 which is really good. The only problem has been that Alou has only topped 500 PAs once, and that was in'04, a long time ago, and Alou has not gotten any younger. Alou had a 1.017 OPS against lefties in 2007 which is no doubt really good, but that was still only 102 PAs. In 2006 he was even better against lefties with an OPS of 1.093 but the same story with only 93 plate appearances. However, historically when he has been healthy, he has eaten lefties for dinner (and probably a midnight snack too with those numbers). If the reds can get alou to sign a low base contract with incentives, i think it could potentially be a huge steal for cincy.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/stats/players/index.php?lastName=alou
http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bsplit.cgi?n1=aloumo01&year=2006

[mace]

It's rare that someone sets forth a fresh case that informs and persuades you as this one did. Well presented.

[OUReds]

Nice point about the LD%, but the BABIP says bad luck regardless of the LD%.

His career .SLG is .455, not far off last season's .466. Close enough certainly that I can't chalk that up to being lucky.

EE's real problem is that he's a tweener. He can't play 3rd defensively, and offensively he would be average or below average at left field and 1st respectively.

You have to trade him if you can get value for him.

[morande]

very impressed by your break down kpresidente! BRAVO

[akron3344]

sign JUan Rivera for outfield = 25 home runs

[redsfandan]

hmmm should i be the contrarian here? while i agree that '09 will be an important year for EE well i also agree that alot of it could be mental. he's not the only player we have that seems to try to do too much. bp is like that too. but i'll be one that doesn't think his defense is putrid. his range has always been ok but the big problem has always been with his throws. which i think could also be mental as far as lack of concentration. he's still young, cheap, and still has time to reach his potential. hopefully he can take a step next year.

not to get sidetracked cuz this thread is about EE but i've also thought of alou. it's hard to knock him as a hitter and a good point was made of how he could be a mentor to EE. but it's hard to overlook his age and inability to be a safe bet to play everyday.