Why not Juan Rivera?

[kfm]

The reds should take a serious look at Rivera. Since the LAA started signing an outfielder every off-season Rivera has not received much playing time. However, the guy is right handed and in his only two seasons where he received more than 350 at bats he ops .829 and then .887 in 2006 when he hit 23 hr drove in 85 hit .310 slugged .525 and obp .364. He seems like a guy who is worth rolling the dice on who should be in the Reds price range and at great american, his numbers should improve.

[akron3344]

agree I wrote that one month ago

[schmidty622]

Totally agree. I would love to bring Rivera into this park.

[redsfandan]

it wouldn't be the sexy pick that alot of fans would like but i would be ok with rivera and think he could become a steal for someone. he won't cost much but has upside to easily reach .280 20 90.

[Ghosts of 1990]

it wouldn't be the sexy pick that alot of fans would like but i would be ok with rivera and think he could become a steal for someone. he won't cost much but has upside to easily reach .280 20 90.


I agree and after the last few seasons and all the power from the lineup we lost, if there was ever a time for one 'sexy' move to get a bat the time is now. Someone has to protect those young hitters and get them stuff to hit. We need an enforcer in this lineup.

[HeatherC1212]

As an Angels fan, I've always liked Rivera and I think he could be a good fit for the Reds. It's definitely worth a shot if the Reds can get him. :)

[Hondo]

I agree and after the last few seasons and all the power from the lineup we lost, if there was ever a time for one 'sexy' move to get a bat the time is now. Someone has to protect those young hitters and get them stuff to hit. We need an enforcer in this lineup.

And do you think that Rivera is going to "protect" the Votto, Bruce, Phillips etc...

He's a good pickup for a left field- back up Outfielder role, but not the Big bat this team Requires...

[schmidty622]

What kind of big bat does this team require and whom do you suggest? Other than Tex of course.

[Hondo]

What kind of big bat does this team require and whom do you suggest? Other than Tex of course.

I told you Tex was a PipeDream Dude...

No on Pat Burrell... No on Vladamir Guerrero, No on Manny Ramirez... No on Magglio Ordonez...

I would have traded for Matt Holiday if Possible... But Colorado got a pretty nice package of Gonzalez, Smith, and Street...

Garrett Atkins would be a Guy I would really look at Trading for to man 3rd Base... and provide some Right handed Pop...

Ya know... Texieria is the only Free Agent worth the Elite Money Status out there and Bob C isn't going to pay him... So I'd pass on all Free Agent Hitters besides maybe taking a chance on Jim Edmonds as a 1 year Centerfielder until younger guys get up to the Big Club... Plus I feel he'd be a great influence on Bruce and Votto...

[schmidty622]

So basically, there is no one you would go after in FA? So the question still stands, if he can be had reasonably... Why not Juan Rivera?

[Hondo]

So basically, there is no one you would go after in FA? So the question still stands, if he can be had reasonably... Why not Juan Rivera?

I said in an earlier post, that Rivera would be a Great addition as a 4th-5th Outfielder and that is where he succedes the best as with the Angels...

But he isn't going to be the IMPACT Bat that will protect Votto and Bruce...

[redsfandan]

just in case anyone missed it...

What kind of big bat does this team require and whom do you suggest? Other than Tex of course.


I told you Tex was a PipeDream Dude...

No on Pat Burrell... No on Vladamir Guerrero, No on Manny Ramirez... No on Magglio Ordonez...

I would have traded for Matt Holiday if Possible... But Colorado got a pretty nice package of Gonzalez, Smith, and Street...

Garrett Atkins would be a Guy I would really look at Trading for to man 3rd Base... and provide some Right handed Pop...

Ya know... Texieria is the only Free Agent worth the Elite Money Status out there and Bob C isn't going to pay him... So I'd pass on all Free Agent Hitters besides maybe taking a chance on Jim Edmonds as a 1 year Centerfielder until younger guys get up to the Big Club... Plus I feel he'd be a great influence on Bruce and Votto...

so now edmonds is the big bat that the reds need in the outfield? :rolleyes:
and didn't you say that you didn't want a stopgap? :p:

[Hondo]

just in case anyone missed it...




so now edmonds is the big bat that the reds need in the outfield? :rolleyes:
and didn't you say that you didn't want a stopgap? :p:

Nice... CenterField Defense. Edmonds is also only looking for a 1 year Deal...

Would you rather have Willy Taveras and his .295 obp at leadoff???

Bruce is going to Right Field...

I understand your point that you are saying I am basically advocating for what I am against...

But also, I mentioned Garrett Atkins as the Right Handed hitter...

I mentioned Edmonds as a Centerfielder as another pieace "AFTER" aquiring Garrett Atkins...

This was about Jermaine Dye not being the "Go To" guy for being 36 and 37... or Juan Rivera as the "IMPACT" bat this team needs...

Jim Edmonds is 38 going on 39 but he will get around 5 million to 7.5 Million and he Looked great with the Cubs...

Again READ THIS... Edmonds was a player added AFTER AFTER AFTER aquiring Garrett Atkins...

READ please...

[redsfandan]

i've already said somewhere in another thread that i'd pass on taveras.

you still haven't convinced me that dye or rivera couldn't work.

so you'd want atkins at 3rd and EE where? you didn't say. in left?

edmonds is ok but definitely not at $7.5. i'd rather have dickerson in center. better offense w/solid defense. if edmonds will accept only 1 or 2 million to be a backup i'd be ok with that.

[schmidty622]

Nice... CenterField Defense. Edmonds is also only looking for a 1 year Deal...

Would you rather have Willy Taveras and his .295 obp at leadoff???

Bruce is going to Right Field...

I understand your point that you are saying I am basically advocating for what I am against...

But also, I mentioned Garrett Atkins as the Right Handed hitter...

I mentioned Edmonds as a Centerfielder as another pieace "AFTER" aquiring Garrett Atkins...

This was about Jermaine Dye not being the "Go To" guy for being 36 and 37... or Juan Rivera as the "IMPACT" bat this team needs...

Jim Edmonds is 38 going on 39 but he will get around 5 million to 7.5 Million and he Looked great with the Cubs...

Again READ THIS... Edmonds was a player added AFTER AFTER AFTER aquiring Garrett Atkins...

READ please...


We got that now but you didn't mention that qualifier in your first post, matter of fact you didn't say the word AFTER once in that post. You were just simply listing names.

Even still, at this point in their careers Rivera has the higher upside and plays an above average if not good corner outfield.

[Lockdwn11]

I think Juan Rivera would be a good signing for the Reds and could turn out to be a steal. He has alot of upside to him and plays good defense in left or right

[Orenda]

It depends on the price. He hasn't done much for a couple of seasons.

[kfm]

It depends on the price. He hasn't done much for a couple of seasons.

I agree on the price, but its hard to blame a guy for not putting up numbers when he has the best year of his career and then each offseason his team adds a high profile outfielder. Take a look at his last full season in 2006. He did that in 448 at-bats. Give him 150 more at-bats and stick him in Great American and the potential for putting up numbers is there. Impact numbers. Why waste our time thinking about trading away young guys for 36 and 37 year olds, I just don't get it.

Batting Statistics

SEASON TEAM G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
2006 LAA 124 448 65 139 27 0 23 85 33 59 0 4 .310 .362 .525 .887

[roby]

I agree on the price, but its hard to blame a guy for not putting up numbers when he has the best year of his career and then each offseason his team adds a high profile outfielder. Take a look at his last full season in 2006. He did that in 448 at-bats. Give him 150 more at-bats and stick him in Great American and the potential for putting up numbers is there. Impact numbers. Why waste our time thinking about trading away young guys for 36 and 37 year olds, I just don't get it.

Batting Statistics

SEASON TEAM G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
2006 LAA 124 448 65 139 27 0 23 85 33 59 0 4 .310 .362 .525 .887

I'm with you guys. Juan Rivera and Nelson Cruz are two options the reds really need to look into.

[redsfandan]

I'm with you guys. Juan Rivera and Nelson Cruz are two options the reds really need to look into.

the difference is rivera is available and wouldn't cost any prospects. cruz isn't a FA and everything from texas indicates they want to hold onto him so he likely would cost prospects.

[kfm]

From espn's jerry crasnick on free agent bargains.

Juan Rivera, outfielder
Six years ago, Baseball America rated Rivera as the No. 5 prospect in the Yankees system. In his first week with the big club in June 2002, Rivera got lost on the subway on his way to Yankee Stadium, then fractured his kneecap when he collided with a golf cart in the outfield while shagging fly balls. Can you say "star-crossed"?

Rivera drifted to Montreal and then the Angels, and appeared to be on the verge of a breakthrough with a 23-homer, 85-RBI season in 2006. But he missed almost the entire 2007 season with a broken leg, and his on base percentage this year was an unsightly .282.

Still, Rivera has exceptional raw power, and he's a capable outfielder even at 6-2 and 225 pounds. Maybe he won't emerge as the 2009 version of Ryan Ludwick, but feel free to file him under "intriguing."

Several executives said a two-year contract in the $6 million to $8 million range is reasonable for Rivera. And if he prefers a one-year deal with the intention of going back on the market in 2010, that's even better. Philadelphia, Cincinnati, Atlanta and the Mets are among the clubs looking for outfield help, and the Angels could decide to re-sign Rivera

[BLEEDS]

And do you think that Rivera is going to "protect" the Votto, Bruce, Phillips etc...

He's a good pickup for a left field- back up Outfielder role, but not the Big bat this team Requires...


Actually, I believe he was saying the exact opposite; agreeing that he's NOT the sexy pick, and that we NEED a sexy pick...

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[redsfandan]

reasons to like rivera for a 1 or 2 year deal:
1) compared to most of the names thrown out as options he'll be very cheap financially ($3-$4 million/yr)
2) he's one of the FA that won't cost prospects like a type A FA or someone the reds would have to trade for
3) at 30 he can't be called "too old" and wouldn't be after 2 years either
4) doesn't have baggage like some players (manny)
5) is an asset defensively in left and right with a rifle arm which would provide flexibility in a 2nd year if frazier/alonso/stubbs/etc are ready.
6) since he'd be so cheap money would be left over for other players
7) at worst he'd help alot with our outfield depth. he could be the backup in left and right and freel could backup center and the infield. (rivera has even played a little center too)
8) he's a rh hitter with some power
9) doesn't strike out alot and has hit .284 for his career

reasons to not like rivera:
1) doesn't have track record that "elite" players do but he's had some bad luck w/injuries and opportunities
2) .282 obp in '08

the first reason to not like him helps to drive down his price but doesn't diminish his potential. so the only question is was his obp in '08 a fluke. fwiw, from 2004-06 his obp was .364, .316, and .362. imo, there's alot to like about rivera. alot of upside + very low cost = reward outweighs risk.

[BigRed07]

I would like to see him in a Reds uniform next year. Here a tid bit from MLB today.

"Rivera made it clear late in the season that his priority is finding a club that will play him every day. The power-hitting outfielder is expected to draw a two-year contract in the $6 million range, according to various reports. The Padres and Reds are among the clubs that appear to be a fit for Rivera."

[Lockdwn11]

reasons to like rivera for a 1 or 2 year deal:
1) compared to most of the names thrown out as options he'll be very cheap financially ($3-$4 million/yr)
2) he's one of the FA that won't cost prospects like a type A FA or someone the reds would have to trade for
3) at 30 he can't be called "too old" and wouldn't be after 2 years either
4) doesn't have baggage like some players (manny)
5) is an asset defensively in left and right with a rifle arm which would provide flexibility in a 2nd year if frazier/alonso/stubbs/etc are ready.
6) since he'd be so cheap money would be left over for other players
7) at worst he'd help alot with our outfield depth. he could be the backup in left and right and freel could backup center and the infield. (rivera has even played a little center too)
8) he's a rh hitter with some power
9) doesn't strike out alot and has hit .284 for his career

reasons to not like rivera:
1) doesn't have track record that "elite" players do but he's had some bad luck w/injuries and opportunities
2) .282 obp in '08

the first reason to not like him helps to drive down his price but doesn't diminish his potential. so the only question is was his obp in '08 a fluke. fwiw, from 2004-06 his obp was .364, .316, and .362. imo, there's alot to like about rivera. alot of upside + very low cost = reward outweighs risk.

Nice post, I agree I really can't see much downside to singing Rivera. He is cheap and gives you at least depth in the corner OF and given the opportunity could provide the Reds a big right handed bat with plus defense in the outfield. He may not be the name some would like but he would be a good pick up for this team IMHO

[schmidty622]

2 years in the six million dollar range? That's pretty cheap for an everyday outfielder with potential. I'd be signing him right now.

[Orenda]

I don't know if he deserves 6 million for a season he had in 2006, I know he hasn't been given a lot of chances since then but I think that would be a waste. The reds just paid Corey Patterson 3 mil remember? Now I doubt Rivera would be as colossal a flop as Patterson but my point still remains. For 6 million I'd want a little more certainty, otherwise I'd be apt to spend that money on top prospects that will have value and are sustainable and provide flexibility in the future. Haven't we been through this for the last 15 years? I'm not saying he would be a bad signing but I just don't like the numbers 1 year and 3 million maybe but that might even be a bit high.

#of reasons the reds don't go over-slot for top talent:

Kirk Saarloss
Scott Hatteburg-
Javier Valentin-
Mike Stanton
Ryan Freel
Corey Patterson
Rheal Cormier
Jeff Conine
David Ross

[redsfandan]

I don't know if he deserves 6 million for a season he had in 2006, I know he hasn't been given a lot of chances since then but I think that would be a waste. The reds just paid Corey Patterson 3 mil remember? Now I doubt Rivera would be as colossal a flop as Patterson but my point still remains. For 6 million I'd want a little more certainty, otherwise I'd be apt to spend that money on top prospects that will have value and are sustainable and provide flexibility in the future. Haven't we been through this for the last 15 years? I'm not saying he would be a bad signing but I just don't like the numbers 1 year and 3 million maybe but that might even be a bit high.

he's expected to be paid 6-8 million over TWO seasons.

[Orenda]

he's expected to be paid 6-8 million over TWO seasons.

I caught that. I don't think Juan Rivera alone is going to push the reds into contention but if you think two years and 6-8 million is a bargain for a guy who has never had 500 at-bats in a season than ok. I think the allure of Juan Rivera is his potential combined with the fact he is considered a bargain, and like I said, I don't think 2 years and 6-8 million is very cost effective for the reds. I'd rather see them sign the next Micheal Inoa, and platoon guys in LF.

[Hondo]

I don't know if he deserves 6 million for a season he had in 2006, I know he hasn't been given a lot of chances since then but I think that would be a waste. The reds just paid Corey Patterson 3 mil remember? Now I doubt Rivera would be as colossal a flop as Patterson but my point still remains. For 6 million I'd want a little more certainty, otherwise I'd be apt to spend that money on top prospects that will have value and are sustainable and provide flexibility in the future. Haven't we been through this for the last 15 years? I'm not saying he would be a bad signing but I just don't like the numbers 1 year and 3 million maybe but that might even be a bit high.

#of reasons the reds don't go over-slot for top talent:

Kirk Saarloss
Scott Hatteburg-
Javier Valentin-
Mike Stanton
Ryan Freel
Corey Patterson
Rheal Cormier
Jeff Conine
David Ross

NO DOUBT... I have been beating this drum since I got here to the Sun Deck... With all the MONEY this team has wasted... They could have just spent the Whole amount on 1 Great ACE Pitcher or a ELITE Hitter and gotton more done then signing multiple scrubs!

[TheNext44]

This is from Doc's blog


Juan Rivera is a better bet. Which I agree with. Part-timer in Anaheim, behind Torii Hunter, Vlad Guerrero and Gary Matthews Jr. would get full-time duty here. Decent OF, has some pop. One Reds scout told me he believes Rivera could "blossom'' playing 81 times at GASP.

I think this is the key the Reds interest in Rivera. Many guys will look at Rivera's stats, especially his lack of walks, and wnat to pass on him. But the key to being a good GM is finding those guys who are outliers, who are exceptions to the way stats normally play out.

As I have said, there is no way to know how good or bad Rivera could be as an everyday player since he has never played a full season as a starter. His highest AB in a season was in the mid 400's, and that was only once. I think Jocketty and his scouts see something in Rivera that would translate well in GABP, and think he could out perform his previous numbers. And he is the guy who thought the same of Ryan Ludwick

[redsfandan]

Some don't like Rivera as a starter. I'm one of those that isn't excited by Taveras as a starter. And I know that some wouldn't be happy unless we had a player in left who was a "safe" bet for 30+ hrs etc. But I wonder if a left/center rotation of Rivera/Dickerson/Taveras could work with Rivera/Dickerson as the starters.

[Lockdwn11]

Some don't like Rivera as a starter. I'm one of those that isn't excited by Taveras as a starter. And I know that some wouldn't be happy unless we had a player in left who was a "safe" bet for 30+ hrs etc. But I wonder if a left/center rotation of Rivera/Dickerson/Taveras could work with Rivera/Dickerson as the starters.

No, because if Taveras is on this team Dusty will have him playing Center and batting leadoff everyday. I'm all for Rivera but I want no part of Taveras because we all know he would be mis-used by Dusty

[redsfandan]

I love how people want to make moves (or not make them) based on what Dusty may or may not do. IF Hairston isn't back we'll need someone else to back up Dickerson.

[Lockdwn11]

I love how people want to make moves (or not make them) based on what Dusty may or may not do. IF Hairston isn't back we'll need someone else to back up Dickerson.

Don't you, because you should. Taveras would be a ok bench player pitch running or a late inning defensive replacment but is a poor leadoff hitter. Where do you think Dusty will use him?

[redsfandan]

Don't you, because you should. Taveras would be a ok bench player pitch running or a late inning defensive replacment but is a poor leadoff hitter. Where do you think Dusty will use him?

Personally I'd prefer Hairston back instead of Taveras. But...

IF Hairston isn't back we'll need someone else to back up Dickerson.
We could have Bruce play center when needed but then who would play right? If Bruce DID have to move we could have Rivera switch to RF and someone else (Wigginton?) could play left. But I think it's an important question.

[Lockdwn11]

We could have Bruce play center when needed but then who would play right? Personally I'd prefer Hairston back instead of Taveras. If Bruce DID have to move we could have Rivera could switch to RF and someone else (Wigginton?) could play left. But...

So who then? I think it's an important question.

I don't don't like the idea of Bruce as our Centerfielder he is alot better in Right. As far as Hairston I would love to have him back if it keeps Taveras off this roster.

[redsfandan]

As far as Hairston I would love to have him back if it keeps Taveras off this roster.

and if he isn't back?

[Lockdwn11]

Ty Wigginton.

[redsfandan]

Wigginton in center. Yeah that could work. :rolleyes:

[Lockdwn11]

Wigginton in center. Yeah that could work. :rolleyes:

WHO said anything about Wigginton in Center? I guess we were talking about two different things. If you are talking about a back up Centerfielder I would rather have Hopper than Taveras

[redsfandan]

WHO said anything about Wigginton in Center? I guess we were talking about two different things. If you are talking about a back up Centerfielder I would rather have Hopper than Taveras


I love how people want to make moves (or not make them) based on what Dusty may or may not do. IF Hairston isn't back we'll need someone else to back up Dickerson.

Anyway, ... Yeah we could use Hopper. I don't dislike him as much as some. I think Hairston is the best pick and hope he's back. One reason to like Rivera is that he could play rf if Bruce IS in center.

[redsfandan]

I think Hopper was resigned to a minor league contract so the Reds may look at him as a backup to another backup.

[SanDiegoRed]

I like Rivera's potential. Sign him!

[TheNext44]

I know he has already signed with the Angels, but after reading all bzillion posts written about him in the ORG, I just wanted to make one point

Because Rivera never played a full season, it is very difficult to be able to project how he will hit over a full season. This is from statistical point of view.

Statisically, in order to be able to correctly project a players performance, we need to see how he performed over a full season. If he plays less than a full season, then his data is incomplete. If he played over a full season, then we know that he faced all the sub groups enough times for the randomness to even out. He faced lefties enough, righties, each ballpark, each type of pitcher (fastball, junkball, sinker/slider, changeup...), each team's defense, and so on.
If a player only has 300-400 AB's in a season, we do not know that he has faced each group enough for the stats to even out. In fact, it is hightly likely that he mostly faced certain sub groups, since his manager knew who he did well against. If he was strong against sinke/slider pitcher, than he probably faced them more than often that others. So if he were to play a full season, his stats would be different because he would be facing all types of pitchers, not just the ones his manager thought he hit well.

So there is on way of knowing exactly how Rivera would do over a full season, until he actually plays one, which it looks likehe will next season.

[redsfandan]

It's not that Rivera hasn't played a full season so much as him being a part time player and not having 500+ ab's. But you do have a point. Anaheim does like to move people around and people would definitely feel better about him if he had 500+ ab seasons instead of 300+ ab seasons . Next year probably won't be any different for Rivera though cuz rumors have Anaheim looking for one more bat so he's still likely to be the 4th outfielder. Which is what I've wondered about.

He has a nice deal for a backup (3 years/$12+ million and possibly more than he could've had with the Reds) but if he had taken a starting job for even just one season he could've set himself up for a bigger deal with a decent season. It could be because of limitations he has as a hitter OR it could be because Anaheim is a playoff contender pretty much every year and we haven't been. Instead of picking a team where he'd be a starter on a team that hasn't won much lately he picked a team that he already knows, that is a safer bet to win, and that has better weather as well. I can't really blame him for that decision.