Surprise player of the year

[GoReds]

Who is your pick for Surprise Player of the Year from the current Reds roster? Someone whose performance will far outshine what expectations are placed on them this year.

Also, who do you think will be the disappointment of the year?

My nominees are:
Surprise player of the year: Ruben Mateo (won't start regularly, but will still come up with 15 homers)
Disappointment of the year: Jimmy Haynes (less than .500 season, at least 12 losses)

[M2]

Surprise - Jason LaRue, .275, 22 HR, solid BB totals, best kill rate in baseball.

Disappointment - Ryan Dempster, something's been wrong with the guy for a year and it eventually might require surgery to fix it.

[Red Leader]

Surprise- Brandon Larson, .285 BA, 28HR, 78RBI, and he won't be in the starting lineup everyday until the middle of May.

Disappointment- Danny Graves, 10-13 record, 4.65 ERA, will start out hot, and then will start fading in May.

[15fan]

Pleasant surprise of the year? Oh, what the heck, let's get some folks riled up...

Barry Larkin.

[creek14]

Surprise player(s) of the year: Dempster and Graves who turn out to be the #1 and #2 we have been searching for.

Disappointment of the year: Adam Dunn, hitting only 48 HRs, 130 RBI's, with a BA of .334. :D

[RollyInRaleigh]

I like your definition of disappointing, creek!:D

[MikeS21]

Surprise will be a rejuvinated and healthy Sean Casey. I'll predict a .310-.320 BA, 20-25 HR's, and 85 RBI's. Disappointment will be the "Danny Graves as a starter" experiment. As Red Leader said, you'll get about five good starts out of him, but by the All-Star break, Graves will be back in the bullpen with trade value around the Juan Castro level.

[vared]

I think the suprise will be Jose Acevedo in the starting rotation and the disappointment will be the cathers, unless Corkey Miller becomes the platooning counterpart to Jason Larue.

[red-in-la]

I just cannot bring myself to choose a Disappointing player of the year.....I think the 2003 Reds are going to pull a 1999 Reds BIG TIME and everybody will be wondering how they are doing it (mirrors and all).

Baseball goes in cycles, and to me, a TON of talent has been laying dormant for over 3 years now and is going to bust out all at once because of the new ballyard.

The only fear I have is that some big deal regular is going to suffer a season ending injury....like a broken bone or a blown out elbow (for a pitcher). M2 may be right, and it may be Demspter. This would be the most damning place to lose a player for the year, from the rotation.

But I just cannot think about it right now. Here is my list of players who are going to bust out to their potential (and I know many of you already think I am nuts, but here goes anyway):

1. Aaron Boone: is going to be one of the best lead off hitters in baseball. He is going to hit over .300 and have a near .400 OBP with around 20 HR's.

2. Brandon Larson: is going to win the 2B job in ST and hit 30 HR's.

3. Felipe Lopez: is going to win the SS job in ST and will hit 20 HR's and strike out less than 100 times.

4. Sean Casey: traded

5. Ruben Mateo: is going to make Casey expendable in ST and will hit 25 HR's and hit .305 while playing LF.

6. Adam Dunn: wins the league MVP playing 1B. If I printed the numbers I am guessing I would be banned for being looney tunes...so I will just say that he wins the MVP.

7. Austin Kearns: will make the All-Star team as a RF. He will he hitting .356 with 18 HR's at the All-Star break.

8. Jason LaRue: .285, yada, yada, yada.

9. JR: will compete with Dunn for MVP.

10. Graves: will make the All-Star team as a starter.

11. Dempster: should make the All-Star team but won't because too many Reds will.

12. Haynes: 18-10

13. Rietsma: 14-7

14. Williamson: will make the All-Star team as a closer.

15. Bullpen: Williamson, Rielding, and Hudson get labeled Nasty Boys II.

[westofyou]

I just cannot bring myself to choose a Disappointing player of the year.....

Up is down

Black is white

Hillary is leaving Bill for Clarence Thomas.

Someone call RILA and let him know Fox has his login.

[creek14]

OMG. R-i-l is making me look pessimistic. :eek:

[letsgojunior]

This has to be bizarro thread or something! Just kidding, welcome to the other side R-I-L. You are now far more optimistic than me, and close to everyone on the board.

Anyways, to the question:

Surprising: In order to call someone 'surprising', I need to have unreasonably high or low expectations of them. Thus, I am hoping this will be Larkin, as if he posts a .360+ OBP our offense will be that much better.

Disappointing: Again, same criteria. My vote goes to Aaron Boone. I just don't like his ML growth curve thus far. He regressed last year and still hasn't shown great plate discipline and strikes out way too much. If he is going to hit at the top of the order, he needs to stop striking out, get on base more, hit the ball to the right side to advance runners, etc. As in, he needs to make several adjustments and I don't know if they are forthcoming.

[RollyInRaleigh]

red is expecting a big year from the Reds, and I think I am starting to feel the same way. Somebody better design a 2003 version of the idiotmobile. This may just be another magical year. I like your enthusiasm red!:thumbup:

[Chip R]

Who else but Juan Castro? ;)

[Rojo]

The really positive thing is that nobody played over their head last year - save Haynes. And a lot of guys played under.

However, I believe Kearns will scuffle at some point leading to some premature doubts about his ceiling. But Casey will come back with solid numbers.

[TeamCasey]

Originally posted by MikeS21
Surprise will be a rejuvinated and healthy Sean Casey. I'll predict a .310-.320 BA, 20-25 HR's, and 85 RBI's. Disappointment will be the "Danny Graves as a starter" experiment. As Red Leader said, you'll get about five good starts out of him, but by the All-Star break, Graves will be back in the bullpen with trade value around the Juan Castro level.

Hate to be biased, but ditto.

I'll add Russell Branyan to the list for pleasant surprises as well.

[RFS62]

Time to rev up the Idiotmobile.

One of the main reasons that scouts are interested in a players "makeup" is the near certainty that a player will be faced with adversity many times in his career.

How you respond to that adversity can differ greatly among players, and for that matter, individuals in all walks of life.

I pick Sean Casey for surprise of the year.

It may well be that his makeup hurt him while he was injured. He struggled to play through not just pain, but injury. I'm betting that he comes back more fit and more determined than ever to prove his detractors wrong.

[ramp101]

rila great post, i needed a "holy crap what has he/she been smokin?"

reds surprise of the year....... THE KID

disappointment of the year........... Sean Casey

[GAC]

If Jr returns to form (and I think he will), would that qualify?... or would that be listed as "Comeback Player of 2003"?

But if I can't list Jr, then I will go with Austin Kearns. He is the real thing IMO.

Close your eyes and imagine that scene from the Wizard of Oz where the Cowardly Lion is chanting the mantra.... "I do believe...I do believe.... I do...I do...I do believe" :lol:

[SirFelixCat]

Put me down as 2 "locks" as big surprises this year:

#1- Jr. will come back to form. There is no doubt in my mind that this is the year Jr. will show everyone why he is one of the Century's greatest players. NO ONE outside of this board expects/hopes he'll comeback strong so I'll include him on the "surprise" list.

#2- Provided he rests this month, Acevedo will breakout this year. All indications are that he will. He has done nothing but improve since his last stint with the team. My only fear are all those innings he used to improve himself coming back to hurt him. But if he stays healthy, I'm predicting 12-14 wins for the kid!

GO REDS!!!:thumbup:

[gm]

Harnisch

(BTW...do you believe in "spooks" GAC?)

Wizard of Oz trivia: what dance scene was left out of the movie?
(Hint: it was popular at the time. I'm not referring to the part of the Scarecrow's scamper that wound up on the cutting room floor)

[Redsfaithful]

Surprise: Lopez will have 15 - 20 Home Runs. Casey will be hit well over .300. Dunn will hit 45+ Home runs. So will Jr. Graves will win 18. (The guy's known since last September he's going to be a starter. Do none of you think he's been conditioning for the job?)

Disappointment: Brandon Larson is going to have a hard time. That's the only guy I'm really down on heading into this year. I really don't think anything I wrote up top is completely unexpected either, all those numbers are where people should be at this point.

[Rojo]

The Jitterbug.

[gm]

"The Jitterbug."

That's right. This is why the witch tells the flying monkey "they'll give you no trouble...I've sent a little INSECT..." The editors took the dance out, but left that line unchanged

[TeamCasey]

We'll need to archive this or have a 2003 predictions forum.

[Greenhills Pioneer]

Surprises:

Griffey: 70 HR! .300 BA, .390 OBP, 140 RBI. Anyone remember before McGwire broke the single season HR record everyone thought Griffey, McGwire and Bonds were the three thought most likely to have a chance to break it? And remember that Griffey was the one most thought had the best chance?

Mateo: Somehow, someway, he gets an opportunity to play everyday at some point and hits .320 with 24 HR and steals 15 in only 400AB displaying his superior eye/hand coordination and bat speed along with his other tools.

Dempster: He gets back on track and is the Reds best starter. He K's 200 with a 3.45 ERA while averaging 7 innings per start and leads the team in CG.

Larson: He shocks people by hitting .290 with 35 HR and 100 RBI giving the Reds a middle of the lineup type bat at the bottom of the order.

Graves: He becomes the team's #2 starter and workhorse by averaging 7.5 innings per start and putting up a 3.71 ERA and wins 16 games.

Reitsma: Becomes the team's closer when Williamson struggles with consistency early on. People realize he has a 95 MPH fastball since he doesn't have to pace himself like he did as a starter and his K rates jump to near one K per inning. He combines that with his Hoffman-esque changeup and solid curveball to become an elite allstar closer in the Gagne/Smoltz/Baez mold(with a lesser fastball of course). He, along with Gagne, Smoltz and Baez, helps redefine the closer role like Vick, McNabb and Culpepper have to the QB position in football.

Disappointments:

Reggie Taylor: He falls in love with the short RF porch so much that he becomes even more determined to try to pull everything in the air out of the park. As a result, his BA plummets and the team realizes that Mateo is by far the better player. His stats might be something like this .245 BA, .260 OBP, 4 HR and 10 SB in 150 AB.

Lopez: He shows glimpses of brilliance, both offensively and defensively, but it becomes obvious that he is not yet the player he will become. He shows how raw he still is by hitting .220 with 7 HR, 10 SB and 20 BB in 400 AB.

Haynes: He proves to everyone how average he really is by putting up a 4.90 ERA and losing 15.

LaRue: Even while being one of the best defensive catchers in baseball, his hitting doesn't improve at all. His .240 BA and 15 HR will be masked by the fact that he becomes a pure pull hitter and pretty much an automatic out most of the time and will be undependable with runners in scoring position.

[cincinnati chili]

Surprise: Sean Casey
Disappointment: Aaron Boone

[Old Red Guard]

I can't list Junior or Casey as surprises because that isn't true - there isn't a sportswriter around or a baseball exec who would be surprised by the reemergence of either. There may be doubters but I don't put either player in realm of surprising if they would have a good season. Larson likewise might have a great year but would that really be surprising given he's a first rounder who tore up AAA and showed well in a brief ML stint last year? To me a surprise is a player coming from nowhere or from a history of mediocrity to become a major player at least for a season. My pick is Juan Acevedo as the surprise of the year.

I just don't understand the pessimism Mike and Red Leader have about Graves. Maybe they've been watching a different pitcher than I have, maybe they just don't want to get their hopes too high, but I've said for a couple of years, along with others on here, that Graves is perfectly cast for the starting rotation. Personally I expect a solid season - 14-16 wins for Danny and an era below 3.50. The disappointment that I suspect will be Ryan Dempster - I know he has talent but I'm not sold on him. Hope I'm wrong but he's my pick for the belly flop of the summer.

[MattyHo4Life]

Surprise: Austin Kearns (any chance you guys will trade him to the Cards?)

Disapointment: Ryan Dempster

[MattyHo4Life]

Originally posted by Old Red Guard
I can't list Junior or Casey as surprises because that isn't true - there isn't a sportswriter around or a baseball exec who would be surprised by the reemergence of either. There may be doubters but I don't put either player in realm of surprising if they would have a good season.

If Griffey or Casey have great seasons...that would be surprising, because nobody really thinks they will. Yeah...it's true that everybody knows that they are capable of having great seasons, but they also know that about JD Drew. Would you be suprised if JD Drew hit 40 homers? I would, but I know he's capable of it. If baseball execs truly thought that Griffey would have a breakout year...then they would be scrambling to trade for him. Do you think Bowden expects Griffey to have a breakout year? If he did....why would he even consider trading him? He wouldn't. The same thing goes for Casey. Just because you know a player is capable of greatness, and has even shown greatness in the past....doesn't mean you wouldn't be surprised if that greatness returns. I think the baseball world has all but given up on Griffey. Although.... that doesn't mean he can't surprise them.

[Reds1]

Surprise - Reistma

Disappointment - LaRue

[gonelong]

I gotta agree with M2 here, look for Larue to show some suprising offense.

I think Casey and Jr will both rebound to some degree, so no suprise there. Kearns and Dunn will do well, no suprise there.

I think that the big suprise to the upside will be from Acevado. I think he was dimissed too early by most. He has decent enough stuff and will be able to be a servable pitcher next year. If Harnish can to anything, he is #2 on this list IMO.

GL

[ForLoveOfTheGame]

My pick for the biggest suprise of the season is Sean Casey. I think most people expect him to rebound from last season's injury marred campaign, but I feel Casey is ready to not only match his '99 numbers, but to surpass them in 2003. Casey plays with a lot of pride, and I really feel that he will have a great season in an attempt to justify Bowden's faith in him over all these years. My prediction for Casey this year is .325 30hr and 110 rbi. Those numbers are not far off his numbers in '99, and are within reach of a healthy Casey who is entering his prime.

My suprise pitcher of the year has got to be Danny Graves. Most people project him as a solid #3 guy with a ceiling of a #2. In my book, Graves has the stuff and pitching savy of a legit #1. My prediction for him in 2003 is 18-6 3.45 era, while pitching over 200 innings.

[MattyHo4Life]

Originally posted by ForLoveOfTheGame
My suprise pitcher of the year has got to be Danny Graves. Most people project him as a solid #3 guy with a ceiling of a #2. In my book, Graves has the stuff and pitching savy of a legit #1. My prediction for him in 2003 is 18-6 3.45 era, while pitching over 200 innings.

That wouldn't be a surprise to Redszoners.

[MikeS21]

Old Red Guard wrote:

I just don't understand the pessimism Mike and Red Leader have about Graves. Maybe they've been watching a different pitcher than I have, maybe they just don't want to get their hopes too high, but I've said for a couple of years, along with others on here, that Graves is perfectly cast for the starting rotation. Personally I expect a solid season - 14-16 wins for Danny and an era below 3.50.
ORG, I can't speak for Red Leader, but I have heard all these comparisons to Derrick Lowe - reliever turned starter, and frankly, I just don't see it.

Lowe is the exception rather than the rule and I see no basis for thinking that just because Lowe had a career yerar, that Graves will become the Reds' #1 ace for the next five seasons. I agree Graves is not a closer. I never once pretended he was a closer. But the comparisons to Derreck Lowe are rather far-fetched. To me, the comparisons between the two have as much logic as if a fellow RedsZoner won the lottery, then I think that because I'm a RedsZoner, I will win the lottery, too.

As for the 200+ innings ForLoveOfTheGame predicts, that's quite a feat for a guy who HAS NEVER pitched more than 112 innings in a single season. And he has only had ONE season where he broke 99 innings (and only TWO seasons where's he'd broke 92 innings). I know Graves is supposedly "conditioning" himself, but come on, the guy is 29 years old and at most he will be a six inning pitcher, which is all we need - another bullpen dependent starter. The guy made $3.5 million in 2002, and will probably be in the $4.8-$5.2 million range for 2003. Thta's a lot for a #4 or #5 pitcher. I don't know about you all, but when I think of a #1 ace, I think of a guy who will have 200+ K's and pitch 3 CG's. That certainly is not Graves.

And that leads me to my last point on Graves. IMHO, I think he'll be on the DL with arm trouble. If he's making the tranistion to starter as a 22 year old, that's one thing. but at 29-30 years old, that could be a problem. 30 years old isn't necessarily old, but in baseball terms, it sure isn't young. And if he tweaks his arm one time, and even misses one start, it will raise red flags as far as any trade value Graves will have come July.

I realize many on this board are high on Graves a s a starter. I'm just not one of them. But if I'm wrong, and Graves wins the Cy Young Award for 2003, I won't complain about it. ;)

[creek14]

Originally posted by MikeS21

But if I'm wrong, and Graves wins the Cy Young Award for 2003, I won't complain about it. ;)

Ah, come on Mike, how about a little "first born" wager... ;)

[MattyHo4Life]

Graves MAY do well as a starter, but after only starting 4 games in his career... it's a little pre-mature to be expecting a CY-Young caliber season from him.

[M2]

I don't know about Graves being a Cy Young candidate, but I expect 190+ innings and a 3.40 ERA from the guy. He could be better, but I'm guessing he won't be much worse than that (mainly because he's consistent with his stuff).

[letsgojunior]

Based on last year's numbers, if Graves can perform somewhere around M2's prediction, he will be the best pitcher on our starting staff provided we don't add a big name.

The big key next year is Dempster. An ERA of 5.5 and a WHIP of around 1.5 just aren't acceptable.

[bthomasiscool]

there is no way graves will be a six inning pitcher dependent on the bullpen........graves is a sinkerball pitcher who can easily get guys out on 3-4 pitches per batter....

[MikeS21]

Originally posted by creek14

Ah, come on Mike, how about a little "first born" wager... ;)
creek, if you did win MY first born in a friendly wager, you'd probably send her back home within an hour. :D My first born is 11, thinks she's 15, at times, acts like she's 6. She is boy crazy, loves the malls, thinks of me as a human ATM machine, and her favorite clothing color is BLACK. In short, she is a typical 5th grader - sass and all.

So you see, if I "lose" a 'first born" wager, I actually "win." :evilgrin:

Anyway, it's good to see I woke up the crowd with my anti-Graves remarks.

[OldTwinsFan]

Surprise - Scott Randall

After a stellar 12-0 3.25 PCL year, he makes the rotation out of camp and goes 12-8 3.75

[SirFelixCat]

Originally posted by OldTwinsFan
Surprise - Scott Randall

After a stellar 12-0 3.25 PCL year, he makes the rotation out of camp and goes 12-8 3.75

Now that would be a surprise...I'll pay homage to you if this come to pass. I hope you're right :D

[Team Tuck]

Surprise - Acevado. I thought he showed some character last year by responding to a 'sudden' demotion with a very solid AAA season. Success at every minor league level, he may be as good or better than some of the more experienced FAs that people wanted us to sign, like Brian Anderson.

Surprise 2 - Scott Williamson as a starter. A WILD guess here, but his experience as a closer will be shaky at best and with holes in the rotation, Willy will push Gully to let him start. They'll move Willy to the rotation by July. Like 2000 he'll impress as a starter.

Disappointment - Haynes would be an obvious choice, but most of us expect so little of him to begin with that it's hard to label him a disappointment. So, Scott Williamson as a closer. He certainly has the stuff, but something tells me it'll be a thrill a minute with him as closer. His control will cost us several games in the early months, leading to a closer by committee. Willy moves to the rotation for the second half.

[RedLex]

Biggest surprise...Ryan Dempster, Sean Casey

Biggest disappointment...Jimmy Haynes, Austin Kearns

[whatafool]

Suprise : Scott Williamson

Disappointment: Sean Casey

[Falls City Beer]

Surprise (but not to me): Acevedo: I've pimped this guy from the first time I saw him. If he throws strikes, he'll win 15.

Disappointment: Dunn. He's got A LOT of work to do. My hat will be off if he can approach his 2nd half/2001 numbers. I'm not saying the guy is a mirage, but I've rarely seen a half season as bad as Dunn's 2nd half 2002 (except maybe A. Boone's first half/2002;) ) . He was flat-out painful to watch. Though I don't think it should happen, the idiot FO will probably send Dunn down to AAA at some point this season to "get his stroke back."

On a somewhat unrelated note, I wouldn't mind seeing a little more enthusiasm/fire from Adam.

[Joe Oliver]

Surprise - Kelly Stinnett has a break out year

Disappointment - Theprevious surprise prediction is impossible

[Raisor]

Originally posted by Falls City Beer


Disappointment: Dunn. He's got A LOT of work to do. My hat will be off if he can approach his 2nd half/2001 numbers. I'm not saying the guy is a mirage, but I've rarely seen a half season as bad as Dunn's 2nd half 2002 (except maybe A. Boone's first half/2002;) ) . He was flat-out painful to watch. Though I don't think it should happen, the idiot FO will probably send Dunn down to AAA at some point this season to "get his stroke back."

.

One major reason to be optimistic about Dunn is that, slump aside, he still walked 50 times in the second half of 2002. I'd be alot more worried about him if his walk numbers fell off the face of the Earth.

The hardest thing for a young player to learn is not to hack at everything, especially when in a slump.

[Raisor]

Originally posted by ForLoveOfTheGame
My prediction for Casey this year is .325 30hr and 110 rbi. Those numbers are not far off his numbers in '99, and are within reach of a healthy Casey who is entering his prime.



If Casey reaches those numbers, I'll run around the GAB (which means I'll drive the 9 hours to get there) in my boxers while singing "Sometimes it's hard to be a woman".

PSR

[RFS62]

Originally posted by Raisor
If Casey reaches those numbers, I'll run around the GAB (which means I'll drive the 9 hours to get there) in my boxers while singing "Sometimes it's hard to be a woman".

PSR


Ladies and gentlemen, I believe we have this year's version of the Falls City first-born challenge.


:beerme: :hat: :beerme:

[letsgojunior]

Mods, can we archive this thread please?;)

[ForLoveOfTheGame]

Of course we will require pictures posted on Redszone as proof of your celebration/coming out party :)

[Raisor]

Originally posted by ForLoveOfTheGame
Of course we will require pictures posted on Redszone as proof of your celebration/coming out party :)


For some reason, I'm not all that worried.

:)

Every year we hear that Casey is going to wind up putting up numbers better then 99, and every year Casey doesn't.

At this point, I'd be THRILLED if he could just become an average 1B again, and OPS around 815 or so.

[Johnny Footstool]

Surprise - Dempster's 200+ IP, 200K, and 3.50 ERA.

Disappointment - Aaron Boone, who plays so badly that his father is forced to bench him in favor of Larson.

[Old Red Guard]

In order for that to happen Johnny, Aaron would have to go hitless for three months straight. Even then, if he got a bunt single his dad would claim he was ready to bust out and move him up in the order. Besides, he'd probably call up Matt to play third and keep Larson benched.