Taveras sets his sights on the SB record

[flash]

Taveras stated today he wants 100 SB's. That would overwhelm the 98 year old club record of 81 by Bescher. Can he do it?

[Nasty_Boy]

Only if he learns to steal 1st.

[CRedsLarkin11]

I would love to see him do it...his chances are extremely unlikely since no one steals any more but he can definitely lead the league again, and he may have to in order to keep everyone off his back

[redsfandan]

I'd love to see it too. It would definitely help to justify the contract. But it's also kinda ambitious to say the least even if his obp rebounds to his career .330 rate.

[BPhillips4]

I wonder if he got a bunch of batting gloves to hang on his wall?

It's a lofty goal, and one that I definitely hope doesn't mean he's going to be running himself into outs just because he wants to put up gaudy stolen base totals. Lord knows he doesn't get on base enough to afford it.

[Nasty_Boy]

I've been as critical of Willy as anyone... But I hope he does it and I hope the Reds win 100 games. I just don't see it happening considering the ballpark and the reliance on infield/bunt hits. It will take an extreme amount of luck for the guy to OB any where over .325

[JBChance]

Its possible, but unlikely.

First off, to have a chance, he'll need to get 600+ AB. That's a no doubter. He had 592 ab in '05, but has averaged about 490/ season overall.

Next, he'll have to get on base more often than he has, ever. His best OBP, in 2007 (.367), yielded about 150 times on base (1st or 2nd that is). Out of those times, he attempted to steal 42 times. In '08, (OBP at .308), he attempted (out of about 163 chances on 1st, 2nd base) 75 times. At those ratios, and keeping his 90.7% success rate, he'd need about 233 chances (on 1st, 2nd) to yield the necessary attempts (111) to get 100 SB. More likely is that his success rate will drop as he tries to steal more, so, use his avg. SB% of 82.4 (still generous). At that rate, and at his '08 chance to attempt ratio (about 48%), he'd need about 255 chances.

That's just not realistic. Even in his best OBP year, and getting 600 AB, he would likely have about 230 chances. So, using our logic above, his OBP would have to considerably higher, probably in the .400 range or better, to even have a shot at it. I don't think so. Rickey Henderson he ain't.

Now, you may say, maybe he can try more often. This is true, but remember, out of all the times he's on 1B (or 2B), there are lots of times he can't try to swipe one; The first and foremost being when there is someone on in front of him. Maybe, because our chosen squad is a bit OBP challenged (understatement?), we can expect less "baseclogging" in front of him; good for his stealing. (not so good for our scoring, on the flipside ;) )

So, what does this all mean? He will need to play all season and get at least 600AB's. It also means that unless we can expect Willy to suddenly learn how to take a walk or hit like Ted Williams, he will need to try to attempt to steal at a much higher clip than he has. (can you say greenlight, anybody?). Vince Coleman, on the '86 Cards, tried to steal a full 62% of times on base to get to 107 SB. (I'm not sure if there is a correlation to team OBP - maybe someone w/more stat-knowledge can find that out). BTW, his OBP: a meager .301. So, it is possible.

Just not very likely.

[Ghosts of 1990]

if he gets 60 or 50 i'll be happy guys always seem to say stuff like this in ST

[CesarGeronimo]

I don't know what else he said besides talking about stolen bases, but I'd like to hear that his top goals are to get on base more often and score more runs.

[Ghosts of 1990]

I wonder if he got a bunch of batting gloves to hang on his wall?
.

I was thinking the same thing as soon as i saw this

[Orodle]

I would hope that he realizes that getting this record would require him to get on base. He stole 60 some with the worst OBP of his career last season I do believe? He definately has the athletic ability and even though I'm not a big Dusty fan I think hes the kinda manager thats gunna want Willy running every chance he gets.

[redsfandan]

My bet is we'll have around 120 steals total for the team. And I don't think fast willy will have 80+% of the teams steals.

[reds77]

At least it could provide something interesting/entertaining for 2009 Reds baseball to watch if he's running like crazy.

[swaisuc]

I have a feeling that Taveras is going to be one of those guys who is easy to root for if you don't get caught up in being bitter about the contract.

[Jerome]

It's going to be hard to steal 100 bases in 400 ABs, which is what he's probably going to get. He'll be benched a few times for ineffectiveness and Norris will get some spot starts here and there.

Gotta like the enthusiasm though.

http://www.jeromesredscare.blogspot.com

[Nasty_Boy]

Why would Norris take up his ABs? Do you think Norris can place ground balls and bunts better than Willy? :D

[OGB]

I'd love to see it, but doubt itll happen. Obviously the teams in the central play more divisional games than anyone else, and the Reds are lucky to face guys like Soto and Doumit many times a year with their rag arms, but Molina has a cannon and Kendall managed to have the highest CS% in baseball last year.
I can't honestly say I know who Houston's starting C will be this year, but Quintero and Towles both have pretty good arms as far as I know

[swaisuc]

Its going to be very interesting to see how the ABs get distributed in the OF. We could potentially have as many as 5 guys capable of playing CF and that doesn't include Bruce who played some last year.

[mlh1981]

The question is, will this team of free swingers be able to to work the count into a somewhat favorable position for him to have the opportunity? Or, will he be running on a lot of 0-2, 2-2, etc pitches. If this is his goal, he may get it, but I could also see a lot of "strike 'em out, throw 'em outs" occur :confused:

[Blood Red Path]

I'd say 80 is a very realistic goal if he gets roughly 525-550 PA.

[JBChance]

I'd say 80 is a very realistic goal if he gets roughly 525-550 PA.

If he returns to '07 form, then that's realistic. But, he'll need to keep up his great SB% from last year.

[dcruz]

Hopefully teams won't focus on him now. But he has the talent to pull some crazy numbers, so I look forward to seeing what he can do

[Kingspoint]

How about setting your sights on something that helps the team, like getting on base at a .350 clip instead of that Pattersonesque-301 that he puked out last season?

[Captain Hook]

Patterson's OBP in 08 was .238.I wonder what the worst OBP for a guy leading off the majority of his ABs is.

[Kingspoint]

Patterson's OBP in 08 was .238.I wonder what the worst OBP for a guy leading off the majority of his ABs is. It ended up that putrid? Wow. I was going with his lifetime OBP coming in.

[Ghosts of 1990]

Mr. Taveras became my final pick today in my fantasy draft because of this statement.

[Nasty_Boy]

Must be a deep league with 14-16 teams... ;)

[Handofdeath]

One thing that hasn't been mentioned is that when Taveras led MLB in SB's last season, and by a sizeable margin, he did it in just 133 games. If he had 600 PA's last season, he would had 80 SB's and that is having a bad year at the plate.

If Taveras runs like last year and has an OBP at right around his career average, the Reds SB record is his. If he has another .367 OBP season, 100 SB's is a serious possibility.

BTW, say what you will about Taveras but in 5 games against the Reds last season his line was
.471/.550/.529. He was also .345/.377/.448 in 14 games against the AL.

Lastly, he played 5 games against this other NL team last season and went .333/.417/.429. Want to guess which team? That's right, he had an OBP of .417 against the World Series Champion.

[Nasty_Boy]

How many runs did he score?

[Nasty_Boy]

I just want to point out that the guy that led the league in steals was tied for 145th in runs scored with the likes of Ray Durham, Felipe Lopez, and David Murphy... and 1 run ahead of Jay Bruce. Yes, he was/is so good that he scored the same amount of runs as 2 journeymen INF's and a rookie while outscoring a rookie that came up on Memorial Day. Man!!! Willy will put us over the top!

[Handofdeath]

Patterson's OBP in 08 was .238.I wonder what the worst OBP for a guy leading off the majority of his ABs is.

Patterson started more games batting 7th last season than he did leading off. All of this constant harping about Dusty Baker continually batting Patterson leadoff has no basis in fact. In 162 games last season Dusty Baker batted Patterson leadoff exactly 32 of those games.

[goreds2]

I know Taveras is getting heat for his on base % etc. It will be very exciting though when he gets on base. When was the last time we had a stolen base threat such as this? Dave Collins, Deon, Larkin?

[express]

Tavares should be cut along with Arthur Rhodes. Dickerson plays CF and Flores takes over for Rhodes.

Hairston starts in LF until he gets hurt. Hopper plays CF vs. LHP and is also able to spell Hairston.

[goreds2]

Tavares should be cut along with Arthur Rhodes. Dickerson plays CF and Flores takes over for Rhodes.

Hairston starts in LF until he gets hurt. Hopper plays CF vs. LHP and is also able to spell Hairston.

I hope your are not judging the Reds on these first few spring games. :)

Austin Kearns always tore up in Spring training then when the bell rung.... ;)

It is fun to talk about different scenarios though. :beerme:

[BluegrassRedleg]

I like the fact that he's setting a high goal. Whether he makes it or not, I'll take a guy with that kind of ambition over what we've seen in recent years. I'm not trying to knock the recent lead-off men, but we really haven't had any in a blue moon.

[adampad]

I enjoy watching speedy players. And I think the stolen base is underrated these days, and wish more players would running more often (if they have a decent percentage).