Who will make the pitching staff out of camp?

[Rusty the Red]

The starters look pretty certain

Harang
Volquez
Arroyo
Cueto
Bailey/Owings (loser of 5th spot goes to pen, I assume)

The pen is pretty set

Cordero
Weathers
Burton
Lincoln
Rhodes
Bailey/Owings
Bray

Will they carry one more? Will that come down to Herrera and Masset? Would they look to trade Masset? If Masset doesn't make the squad does that make the Griffey trade a complete farce?

I can't wait to see how all this plays out. Less than a month to wait.

[Eric_the_Red]

Will they carry one more?

No way they carry 13 pitchers. Twelve may be a stretch but if Owings is one of them he can double as a bat off the bench.

[davereds24]

Bailey won't go to the pen if owings wins the 5 spot. I doubt they can get anything for Masset, but just getting the Sox to pay a couple mil for Griffey was a win for the Reds.

[tbball10]

I think they will carry 12.
Starters
Harang
Volquez
Arroyo
Cueto
Owings

Bullpen
Cordero
Weathers
Burton
Lincoln
Rhodes
Bray
Masset/ Ramirez

I wish Fisher and Roenicke were part of the bullpen, but I don't see it happening. But I could see Cordero, Bray or both starting on the DL.

[xavr1]

Are we sure that Bailey won't go to the 'pen if Owings gets the 5?

[Prf15]

Why would Homer go to the pen? I would think if he doesn't get the 5th spot then he will go to Triple A waiting for a rotation spot to open up. I just think putting him in the bullpen won't help him any.

[$1 Hot Dog]

I would be actually happy if they kept both Owings and Bailey up. As of now this spring both have pitched excellent which doesnt deserve a demotion. I for one would rather have Baily as our long man than Masset, as of now. Who know maybe Bailey could have more success being a bullpen pitcher.

[Ghosts of 1990]

I think they will carry 12.
Starters
Harang
Volquez
Arroyo
Cueto
Owings

Bullpen
Cordero
Weathers
Burton
Lincoln
Rhodes
Bray
Masset/ Ramirez

I wish Fisher and Roenicke were part of the bullpen, but I don't see it happening. But I could see Cordero, Bray or both starting on the DL.

If Bailey doesn't make this club with the way he is throwing, I want nothing to do with our team.

[stevekun]

I think Bailey will make the club....but Massett is not helping his case right now with the way he is throwing

[tommycash]

Someone help me out on this, does Massett have any options left? Also, will this affect if he stays or goes?

[tbball10]

If Bailey doesn't make this club with the way he is throwing, I want nothing to do with our team.

i saw homer pitch vs. the jays last saturday and was unimpressed. they said he didnt have good stuff, so hopefully that was the case, and he will do better in his next appearances. what concerns me is his major loss in velocity, which peaked at 92 when i saw him, and he didn't have good command either.

[JBChance]

If Bailey doesn't make this club with the way he is throwing, I want nothing to do with our team.

I agree that, as it stands, Bailey will make the club.


I think Bailey will make the club....but Massett is not helping his case right now with the way he is throwing

Not impressed with Massett. He did have thew one good outing, but got hammered on two.

He did well for us in limited action last year, but, he's got a grand total of two major league starts. He's a long reliever, IMO and we have better options at this point. Maybe he can get straightened out in AAA and come back to the pen if an injury forces it.

[bounty37h]

If Bailey doesn't make this club with the way he is throwing, I want nothing to do with our team.

I think I get what your saying , but you come off sounding bad sayin that IMO-like a whiny kid saying I will take my ball and go-home. I would take it as if he doesnt make the team we have 5 other options that are better for the team at this time, and would want more to do with the team....if that is how it truly works, which I am not always confident about.

[Ghosts of 1990]

I think I get what your saying , but you come off sounding bad sayin that IMO-like a whiny kid saying I will take my ball and go-home. I would take it as if he doesnt make the team we have 5 other options that are better for the team at this time, and would want more to do with the team....if that is how it truly works, which I am not always confident about.

I think you know what I mean.

Last year we took Fogg and Patterson north over Bailey and Bruce. Where did that get us? I'm sick of giving guys like Daryl Ward spots and not guys who have a chance to be part of our future. IMO we either lose with kids now or else. Sink or swim. Guys like Jaque Jones and Daryl Ward; Corey Pattersons and Josh Fogg's, they do nothing for me.

I'm tired of this organization choosing the hard road. So yea, if Bailey comes out and has a spring like the one he's put together; he best be on the team if you want me to spend my time and money on your organization this year. If he isn't on the team that sends a message.

[xavr1]

Harang looked very good today

[Ghosts of 1990]

I saw Bailey threw another 2 scoreless innings today. That works out to 10 innings, 1 ER, and a 0.90 ERA.

He deserves the 5th starter spot as of now I think.

[Eric_the_Red]

Someone help me out on this, does Massett have any options left? Also, will this affect if he stays or goes?

Massett is out of options.

[bounty37h]

I think you know what I mean.

Last year we took Fogg and Patterson north over Bailey and Bruce. Where did that get us? I'm sick of giving guys like Daryl Ward spots and not guys who have a chance to be part of our future. IMO we either lose with kids now or else. Sink or swim. Guys like Jaque Jones and Daryl Ward; Corey Pattersons and Josh Fogg's, they do nothing for me.

I'm tired of this organization choosing the hard road. So yea, if Bailey comes out and has a spring like the one he's put together; he best be on the team if you want me to spend my time and money on your organization this year. If he isn't on the team that sends a message.

Yeah, I got ya, I just hope if it happens that way, its because the other option truly is a better option, not just cause we already spent big money on contract, he was good 15 years ago, blah blah blah, whatever we have heard in the past years.

[JBChance]

Harang looked very good today

Yeah, maybe he'll make the staff ;)

[schmidty622]

I saw Bailey threw another 2 scoreless innings today. That works out to 10 innings, 1 ER, and a 0.90 ERA.

He deserves the 5th starter spot as of now I think.

I'd take Owings right now because he has had success against big leaguers in real games and he is a more valuable player in the rotation because of how it lets the Reds use his bat.

I would certainly have Bailey with the big club though.

[ChatterRed]

Owings should be the 5th starter and Bailey should go to triple A and continue working as a starter. If we put Bailey in the pen, it will probably just mess him up.

There are always injuries or tired arms. Bailey will get his chance.

[Rusty the Red]

For once it is nice to think that we have a debate on who doesn't make the team instead of the guys who must make the team but that we don't want.
Owings and Bailey are both potentially good pitchers. I don't think we lose much with either.
And Fogg over Bailey last season out of ST, that was the logical move. Fogg tanked, but Bailey was not ready. Maybe he is ready now.

[Jerome]

Homer will have his day. Spring stats are meaningless. Put him in AAA to start.

http://www.jeromesredscare.blogspot.com

[xavr1]

I saw Bailey threw another 2 scoreless innings today. That works out to 10 innings, 1 ER, and a 0.90 ERA.

He deserves the 5th starter spot as of now I think.

Fay reported that Homer was in a bases loaded jam but Gomes helped him out with an acrobatic catch that saved multiple runs. I think Owings has been more impressive thus far and should get the 5.

[FlightRick]

Not only is Massett out of options, but he's also a guy who I don't see as anything other than a reliever. Bailey/Owings? Both have easy middle-of-the-rotation potential, and should be developed as such.

To me, that means you put the reliever -- duh -- in the last relief slot, and your other two starters (both of whom DO have options) are battling for one roster/rotation spot. This keeps Massett properly cast, and might be the only way we can showcase him in a way that makes him marketable to some team looking for a solid long-man come the trading deadline, while also keeping both Bailey and Owings in their usual starter routines.

Let us not forget: Bailey has also not yet proven an ability to get AAA batters out for an entire season. In his case, having options might not just be an "administrative" convenience, it could be a bona fide chance to cement his final stage of development before asking him to assume a full-time slot on the 25-man. If he genuinely out-pitches Owings? No biggie there, either, as that's a headache I wouldn't mind having.

I mean, the vast majority of teams end up having either 7 or 8 SP who get five or more starts over the course of a season; even if we're extremely lucky/durable and we only go six-deep in our rotation, that's still plenty of Major League outings for both Owings and Bailey, regardless of where one or the other begins the year.

And even if we are lucky/durable, we can still be crafty and sneaky with our DL use, too, although that might be more handy for Massett and his lack of options: sliding him onto the 15-day with "tenderness" to call up a younger/more-effective arm, then sticking him in AAA for rehab work, and before all is said and done, no matter how bad he's stinking, we've effectively "hidden" him for like 2 months without having to give him away or put him on waivers. I think this is basically how we bided our time while Burton was figuring it out while he was a Rule V player for us: he stunk, we manufactured a 3 month "injury/rehab" deal that might not have been entirely on the level, and in that time, he got his stuff together and turned into a quality performer so that we didn't just have to give him back to Oakland.

Bottom line: Massett to the pen, winner of Owings/Bailey to the rotation (loser to AAA), and there will still be plenty of opportunity for all. It's a headache I love having, actually.


Rick


PS: Two caveats... (1) if you want to make the case for completely changing Bailey's career arc -- I know some think he'd be a great closer -- then certainly you can think about putting him in the pen instead of keeping him in AAA as part of his on-going development. And (2) I'm basing a lot of this on the descriptions of the "New Homer" who won't spaz out and go all Drama Queen on us if demoted to AAA after a solid Spring... Old Homer probably would have done that, but I'm hoping the new Grown Up model won't, giving us both more freedom and a much more valuable long-term player than somebody who's too delicate for his own good.

[JBChance]

Fay reported that Homer was in a bases loaded jam but Gomes helped him out with an acrobatic catch that saved multiple runs. I think Owings has been more impressive thus far and should get the 5.

He's still only given up 1 run in 10 innings.

Getting out of jams helps to build his confidence. He must have made some quality pitches in his outing.

A wait and see approach is the way to go. We have time.


Not only is Massett out of options, but he's also a guy who I don't see as anything other than a reliever. Bailey/Owings? Both have easy middle-of-the-rotation potential, and should be developed as such.

To me, that means you put the reliever -- duh -- in the last relief slot, and your other two starters (both of whom DO have options) are battling for one roster/rotation spot. This keeps Massett properly cast, and might be the only way we can showcase him in a way that makes him marketable to some team looking for a solid long-man come the trading deadline, while also keeping both Bailey and Owings in their usual starter routines.

You might be right, but as it stands with Massett, I'm not sold on him making it at all. Since he's out of options, he'll get a major look-see, but I can't see keeping him just because someone would take him off waivers. I would keep him only if he gives the team the best chance to win.

He'll still have a lot of chances, but if he's not a quality arm, who cares if he goes?


And even if we are lucky/durable, we can still be crafty and sneaky with our DL use, too, although that might be more handy for Massett and his lack of options: sliding him onto the 15-day with "tenderness" to call up a younger/more-effective arm, then sticking him in AAA for rehab work, and before all is said and done, no matter how bad he's stinking, we've effectively "hidden" him for like 2 months without having to give him away or put him on waivers. I think this is basically how we bided our time while Burton was figuring it out while he was a Rule V player for us: he stunk, we manufactured a 3 month "injury/rehab" deal that might not have been entirely on the level, and in that time, he got his stuff together and turned into a quality performer so that we didn't just have to give him back to Oakland.

Not sure if that's exactly how it happened w/ Burton, but I'm not so sure how Massett would feel about that.

Speaking of Burton, what's up with him? He's been fairly shaky - given up 9 hits in 5 1/3 w/2 HR's. Gave up a HR in the eighth to some AA foddder. Anyone heard any news?

[xavr1]

I definitely agree that, even though he got in a jam today, Bailey has really pitched well this spring. But so has Owings. And, as has been said, you dont trade Dunn for Owings without an eye toward plugging him in at the 5. That's why I think the job was probably Owings' to lose and he's done nothing but impress.

Put it this way--if neither Bailey nor Owings gave up a run all spring, and both had commanding fastballs, off-speed stuff, etc, who do you think would get the spot?

[Brucey]

I dont think Homer will make the club because he still has options. Owings has been just as good as Homer and I'm confident he will be our 5th starter. I just hope that if it does turn out this way it doesnt break Homer's confidence and he can tear it up in the minors untill someone gets hurt (which I dont want to happen but it is inevitable.)

[fourrunhomer]

Another thing to consider about moving Homer to long relief is that it has been reported that it takes him a long time to get loose. This could cause an injury risk or be unpracticle as for getting ready quick enough to come in if the starter blows.

[flash]

I think both Flores and Herrera are pushing Bray pretty hard for the left handed reliever spot. Fisher is also pushing hard for Burton's spot. He is having a terrific spring. Roenicke is so-so.

Not to change subjects, but the other half of the battery is shaping up as quite a battle. Hannigan is really making the most of his opportunity. Henandez can't afford any Baltimore relaspe or he will lose his starting spot.

[ChatterRed]

This isn't just about Spring Training. You have to consider what guys have done in their careers, experience, talent, age, etc.............

Owings has far more experience and had a track record of getting it done and ran into some small trouble.

Bailey has failed at the major league level every time. He is having a nice Spring Training, but how many guys have we seen have nice Spring Trainings and then struggle during the season?

I wouldn't put too much stock in Spring Training.

All the Bailey-lovers are acting like he's suddenly become some kind of dominant pitcher. It's a 10 inning stretch that he's pitched this way. A small sample. I'm happy for him........but let's keep it in perspective, can we.

[Kingspoint]

I have zero interest in Rhodes pitching for the REDS this year. I'd rather have Herrera.

[Handofdeath]

I have zero interest in Rhodes pitching for the REDS this year. I'd rather have Herrera.

Understandable, Herrera is a great prospect. But, unlike Herrera, Rhodes has shown the ability time and time again to get out Major League hitters. He's one of the best set-up men in MLB. Herrera was very hittable last season basically doing mopup work. And the thing is the Reds have a great problem, they don't need him this season. If Herrera does well in AAA this season and the Reds have no need for him in 2009 then come the trading deadline a young pitcher makes some mighty tasty bait to dangle to other clubs. Might even bring in the final piece for a successful playoff run.

[flash]

Understandable, Herrera is a great prospect. But, unlike Herrera, Rhodes has shown the ability time and time again to get out Major League hitters. He's one of the best set-up men in MLB. Herrera was very hittable last season basically doing mopup work. And the thing is the Reds have a great problem, they don't need him this season. If Herrera does well in AAA this season and the Reds have no need for him in 2009 then come the trading deadline a young pitcher makes some mighty tasty bait to dangle to other clubs. Might even bring in the final piece for a successful playoff run.

Good points, but then there is Flores who has a better career track record than either Rhodes or Herrera. Rhodes career is one of inconsistency, plus he is forty which makes him a Stanton candidate.

[Kingspoint]

Rhodes isn't fooling anybody so far this Spring. Understandably, it probably takes all of Spring Training to get a 40-year old arm (that hasn't used steroids) going. I've seen Rhodes pitch about 300 times. I know everything about him, and his time for getting opponents out or getting them to hit his pitch is over with. I can think of 7 or 8 players currently on the REDS that will be sent down because of him that I'd rather have pitching in the Majors, and with that many to choose from, if one of them fails, there is another replacement. The problem with Rhodes, is that if he fails, he won't get replaced because Dusty "trusts" the veteran, even if he sucks. He's proved that enough by playing Patterson all year last year.

[Jim]

I'm just thrilled that we are optimistic about the rotation AND actually have to make a decision as which decent pitcher to give the 5th spot to! Considering their record out of that spot last year, I'm excited to see how much better they do, regardless of who wins the job.

[Lockdwn11]

Micah Owing has pretty much out pitched everyone on the staff this spring so I don't see how he can't be in the rotation and he gives you a a right handed bat off the bench

[JBChance]

Micah Owing has pretty much out pitched everyone on the staff this spring so I don't see how he can't be in the rotation and he gives you a a right handed bat off the bench

Another strong outing on Friday: 4 IP, 0 runs on 2 hits, no walks, 4 strikeouts. He's definitely making the most of this opportunity. Its his to lose, at this point.

The hitting part is nice, but mostly irrelevant.

[schmidty622]

It's gotta be Owings at this point.

[TheNext44]

While I think it is encouraging that the Reds pitchers have shut down most teams, I also think all stats early this spring should be taken with an extra grain of salt.

The WBC has taken a lot of the best players out of spring training, so most of the lineups are more like "B" squad lineups than "A" squad lineups. I would like to see what these guys do against the "A" squads, once the WBC is over. I think that will be a better indicator of how well they will do once the season starts.

[redsfandan]

Good points, but then there is Flores who has a better career track record than either Rhodes or Herrera. Rhodes career is one of inconsistency, plus he is forty which makes him a Stanton candidate.

Something about this sounded familiar. Than I realized that this was you in a separate post just 6 minutes earlier:

Flores career numbers against lefties are better than Rhodes. BA .215 vs. .221, OBP .282 vs. .289, Slg. .292 vs. .325

The thing is Flores has pitched all of 56 innings over the last THREE seasons and has faced lefthanded batters only 71 times. But you're convinced he'll be better? Are you the president of the Ron Flores fan club?

I just don't understand why someone wouldn't want Rhodes to be successful with the Reds. If he succeeds we get our moneys worth. If he doesn't than we don't get what we paid for. It's like WillyT. Most of us would prefer someone else but this is who we'll have. It's not like the Reds would just sign a player and than say: "you know what? we really don't need you after all but you can keep all the money we just gave you. We think you need the money more than us anyway." It's just not realistic. You just have to accept it and hope it works out. There's only a few spots up for grabs this year and, unless he stinks in March and April, Rhodes spot isn't one of them. By the way, Rhodes isn't 40 yet.

[JBChance]

Something about this sounded familiar. Than I realized that this was you in a separate post just 6 minutes earlier:


The thing is Flores has pitched all of 56 innings over the last THREE seasons and has faced lefthanded batters only 71 times. But you're convinced he'll be better? Are you the president of the Ron Flores fan club?

I just don't understand why someone wouldn't want Rhodes to be successful with the Reds. If he succeeds we get our moneys worth. If he doesn't than we don't get what we paid for. It's like WillyT. Most of us would prefer someone else but this is who we'll have. It's not like the Reds would just sign a player and than say: "you know what? we really don't need you after all but you can keep all the money we just gave you. We think you need the money more than us anyway." It's just not realistic. You just have to accept it and hope it works out. There's only a few spots up for grabs this year and, unless he stinks in March and April, Rhodes spot isn't one of them. By the way, Rhodes isn't 40 yet.

Well said. Rhodes is an extremely successful pitcher when pitching to lefties. He's going to be OK.

On a side note, I don't think Rhodes really replaces Affeldt. Rhodes looks to be the left handed specialist while Affeldt was OK pitching to either side of the plate. So, which is the pitcher on the roster that will replace him? It's not Rhodes - maybe Bray (if he can stay healthy)?

[Rusty the Red]

Bray has to stay on the field and out of the trainers quarters to be effective at all.

[xavr1]

Masset knocked around again today. 2 ERs in 2 2/3 innings. Starting to lose any claim to the long relief slot?

[Rusty the Red]

Masset is not helping himself.

[Ghosts of 1990]

Do you all feel that Bailey is going to at least or at the very worst make the team out of the pen?

[flash]

Something about this sounded familiar. Than I realized that this was you in a separate post just 6 minutes earlier:


The thing is Flores has pitched all of 56 innings over the last THREE seasons and has faced lefthanded batters only 71 times. But you're convinced he'll be better? Are you the president of the Ron Flores fan club?

I just don't understand why someone wouldn't want Rhodes to be successful with the Reds. If he succeeds we get our moneys worth. If he doesn't than we don't get what we paid for. It's like WillyT. Most of us would prefer someone else but this is who we'll have. It's not like the Reds would just sign a player and than say: "you know what? we really don't need you after all but you can keep all the money we just gave you. We think you need the money more than us anyway." It's just not realistic. You just have to accept it and hope it works out. There's only a few spots up for grabs this year and, unless he stinks in March and April, Rhodes spot isn't one of them. By the way, Rhodes isn't 40 yet.

No, I'm not president of any fan club. I am just stating facts. Okay, Rhodes won't be forty until October. And if Rhodes does make the club I hope he succeeds. It is stupid to feel otherwise.

But now that we are looking at Bray, lets see what he has done in the past three years. ERA 3.86, He has faced lefties 193 times. They have hit .282 against him with an OBP of .354 and a slugging average of .384. Not exactly sterling numbers.

[JBChance]

Do you all feel that Bailey is going to at least or at the very worst make the team out of the pen?

As long as Masset continues to slide, we will need Homer in the pen for long relief.

[Ghosts of 1990]

As long as Masset continues to slide, we will need Homer in the pen for long relief.

I'm hoping he gets the nod over Owings..... but as long as he's on the roster i will be happy.

[Rusty the Red]

I'm hoping he gets the nod over Owings..... but as long as he's on the roster i will be happy.

I want Bailey to find success, but I don't understand why some are so adamant to have him get the 5th spot if there is a better candidate. Homer has never proven himself at the ML level. It could be said that he has never proven himself at the AAA level, so why would you want to hand him a rotation spot? He has to more than earn the spot and while he has not been terrible he has not made it obvious that he is the better pitcher.

I would love to see him in the pen, but I don't know if that would be what management has in mind for him.

[xavr1]

I have this feeling that, if they dont give him the 5 (which is looking more and more to be the case) they will send him down to be a starter in Louisville. I really hope that's not the case, though, because I would love to see him as the long man.

[schmidty622]

I'm hoping he gets the nod over Owings..... but as long as he's on the roster i will be happy.

Why? In my eyes Owings has pitched just as well as Bailey, If not better. I'd rather have the guy that is pitching well now, and has has some level of success in the majors before.

Bailey will have his time as a starter. I just don't think he's earned it quite yet.

[redsfandan]

No, I'm not president of any fan club. I am just stating facts. Okay, Rhodes won't be forty until October. And if Rhodes does make the club I hope he succeeds. It is stupid to feel otherwise.

But now that we are looking at Bray, lets see what he has done in the past three years. ERA 3.86, He has faced lefties 193 times. They have hit .282 against him with an OBP of .354 and a slugging average of .384. Not exactly sterling numbers.
Yep, better to pick on Bray. Most likely, Flores has a minor league deal (don't remember) so he could be a threat to have the spot currently taken by Bray IF Bray isn't 100%. I don't know who has how many options left but that would play into it as well.


Why? In my eyes Owings has pitched just as well as Bailey, If not better. I'd rather have the guy that is pitching well now, and has has some level of success in the majors before.

Bailey will have his time as a starter. I just don't think he's earned it quite yet.
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