Cordero nearly lit up again

[flash]

Last night he contined the circus which is his spring training. Record now
7.2 IP, 18 hits 5 BB's. 15.26 ERA. He lets a man on for every one he gets out. Had to be pulled for Viola in order for the Reds not to lose. Look what 12 million buys. A clown in a baseball uniform

[schmidty622]

Last night he contined the circus which is his spring training. Record now
7.2 IP, 18 hits 5 BB's. 15.26 ERA. He lets a man on for every one he gets out. Had to be pulled for Viola in order for the Reds not to lose. Look what 12 million buys. A clown in a baseball uniform

Give me a break, It's spring training. Let me see him blow some games in the regular season before I get my pitchfork out.

I hate that contract as much as anyone but geez relax.

[TheBigLebowski]

I'm wondering at this point if he's hurt. I hated the signing and I loathe the contract but he is a good pitcher. Unless he's just not trying, something is wrong.

[NatiRedGals]

He will be fine id still be happy to have him out there in the 9th with a lead. He had no chance to get there constituency doing what he was supposed to close. SO many times he went out there ethier A. Tied or B. Down. Hes a closer he thrives on being able to finish the job for his team. This year with our pitching and hopefully our offense surprises alot of people he we will actually be able to do what he was signed to do close the game and get the save not the W.

[Root Down]

Give me a break, It's spring training. Let me see him blow some games in the regular season before I get my pitchfork out.

I hate that contract as much as anyone but geez relax.

Agreed, we can't judge the man based on spring training. It really is just practice, kind of like judging a hitter on BP. If this continues into the regular season it will be a problem, but he will get a new begining then.

[ChatterRed]

I believe Cordero had some surgery in the offseason, and word is he's still working things out and regaining some strength. Atleast that's what I heard.

I will wait until he starts blowing games in the regular season too.

[TheNext44]

Whenever I see people get excited over spring stats, I like to tell this story:

In 1996, a friend of mine got a chance to interview Jim Bowden down in spring training. I was down there with him so he invited me to tag along. We met Bowden in his spring training office in Plant City. It was pretty cool, as right behind him was the organizational depth chart. It literally ranked every player in the Reds organization according to position. It was huge.
Also, Ray Knight, the manager that year, was just finishing up his daily meeting with Bowden when we got there. There were going over the roster, and I got to hear them talk about two players, Eric Owens and Jeff Shaw.
The first thing that I noticed was that they didn't use or talk about stats at all. They worked from sheets that broke down every AB or batter faced for each player, pitch by pitch. These sheets had notes on key pitches in each AB. It was these notes that they talked about most.
For Owens, they focused on one AB, when he was facing a hard throwing reliever. (They never said his name, just said that this guy threw mid 90's). They were worried about Owens being able to get around the high heat. In this AB, Owens K'd, but on a 2-2 pitch he turned on the guy's fastball high and tight, and drove it foul, but with home run distance. That one swing did it for them. Owens was now a favorite to make the team.
For Shaw, Knight was trying to convince Bowden that he had set up or closer stuff. He liked that he attacked hitters and was not afraid to pitch inside. He showed Bowden sheet after sheet of him doing that. He also showed him that Shaw bounced back well after getting lit up. Again, no numbers were discussed.
The point is that while all we have to go on is stats, and seeing the few games that we do, the team has access to much, much more detailed data. This enables them to ignore stats, and make much more well informed decisions that we can. This probably is why Ward was let go so early. They probably saw something they didn't like that he could not fix.

Anyway, after that experience (which was one of the most awesome ones of my life), I never second guess a team's roster decisions or worry about spring stats.

[gedred69]

Whenever I see people get excited over spring stats, I like to tell this story:

In 1996, a friend of mine got a chance to interview Jim Bowden down in spring training. I was down there with him so he invited me to tag along. We met Bowden in his spring training office in Plant City. It was pretty cool, as right behind him was the organizational depth chart. It literally ranked every player in the Reds organization according to position. It was huge.
Also, Ray Knight, the manager that year, was just finishing up his daily meeting with Bowden when we got there. There were going over the roster, and I got to hear them talk about two players, Eric Owens and Jeff Shaw.
The first thing that I noticed was that they didn't use or talk about stats at all. They worked from sheets that broke down every AB or batter faced for each player, pitch by pitch. These sheets had notes on key pitches in each AB. It was these notes that they talked about most.
For Owens, they focused on one AB, when he was facing a hard throwing reliever. (They never said his name, just said that this guy threw mid 90's). They were worried about Owens being able to get around the high heat. In this AB, Owens K'd, but on a 2-2 pitch he turned on the guy's fastball high and tight, and drove it foul, but with home run distance. That one swing did it for them. Owens was now a favorite to make the team.
For Shaw, Knight was trying to convince Bowden that he had set up or closer stuff. He liked that he attacked hitters and was not afraid to pitch inside. He showed Bowden sheet after sheet of him doing that. He also showed him that Shaw bounced back well after getting lit up. Again, no numbers were discussed.
The point is that while all we have to go on is stats, and seeing the few games that we do, the team has access to much, much more detailed data. This enables them to ignore stats, and make much more well informed decisions that we can. This probably is why Ward was let go so early. They probably saw something they didn't like that he could not fix.

Anyway, after that experience (which was one of the most awesome ones of my life), I never second guess a team's roster decisions or worry about spring stats.

Excellent info. Don't remember the time frames, but both the guys you mentioned went on to respectable careers, and if my memory is correct, Shaw became a helluva a closer for 3-4 years.

[Kingspoint]

Give me a break, It's spring training. Let me see him blow some games in the regular season before I get my pitchfork out.

I hate that contract as much as anyone but geez relax.

But, we saw him blow too many games in the regular season last year (his save % was far worse than the comparative size of his contract and he was no better than average, at best). We already have a full season of watching him do it. This Winter things were supposed to change so that he doesn't repeat his poor performance of last season. It's not only looking like he's going to repeat his poor performance of last season, but that he's going to be measurably worse.

There's definitely a real concern, especially when you look at how out of shape he is. There doesn't seem to be much of a commitment on his part to work hard at becoming better. It looks like he thinks he ought to be able to just go out there, without the effort it takes to improve, and repeat his performance of 2 seasons ago. He's got his giant contract and he has literally sat on his butt since then.

He's being paid to be an elite closer. He needs to step it up and pitch like he's being paid.

[Kingspoint]

Right now, Cordero is the weakest link on the team, the player to be most concerned about, by far.

He single-handedly can make the difference between this team starting out 25-15 or 20-20........or 20-20 or 15-25, by blowing 5 games that he should have saved during the early part of the season. Nobody else on the team can have that type of an impact this early in the season.

[jmac]

Right now, Cordero is the weakest link on the team, the player to be most concerned about, by far.

He single-handedly can make the difference between this team starting out 25-15 or 20-20........or 20-20 or 15-25, by blowing 5 games that he should have saved during the early part of the season. Nobody else on the team can have that type of an impact this early in the season.

Correct. Many act like it is all because of ST stats but Cordero had problems last year.
He wasnt the dominant type pitcher he was with Milwaukee. However I also remember his home/road splits while at Mil.
I just dont see how someone can feel comfortable right now with him coming in and a 1 run lead. I feel much the same as I did with Graves.
Hopefully when bell sounds, he will kick it in gear though.

[Kingspoint]

Correct. Many act like it is all because of ST stats but Cordero had problems last year.
He wasnt the dominant type pitcher he was with Milwaukee. However I also remember his home/road splits while at Mil.
I just dont see how someone can feel comfortable right now with him coming in and a 1 run lead. I feel much the same as I did with Graves.
Hopefully when bell sounds, he will kick it in gear though.

Funny you should say that. His results were nearly identical to Graves.

For the record, here are Cordero's stats from last season in "save situations".

Games appeared.....40 games.
Saves...................34.
Blown Saves............6.
Wins.......................1.
Losses....................3.
IP.........................39.
Walks.....................19.
HBP.........................1.
Hits.......................35.
WHIP(+HBP)...........1.513
Homeruns.................5.
K's.........................44
K/BB=HBP ratio.........2.2
ERA is irrelevant to a closer, so I'm not listing it, but if you're curious, it was 1-1/2 runs higher than his non-save situations.

Those aren't stats of a good closer, yet alone an elite one, which is what he's cashing checks to be.

85% close rate is acceptable for a closer, and in fact, is average. It could be better.

He converted his first 7 opportunities for saves last season. He then blew 6 of his next 19 opportunities. At that point, he had a 72.8 save percentage. He closed out the season saving his last 14 opportunites, when the pressure was off and we were already eliminated from playoff contention (11 saves coming after Aug 19th).

I would take an 85% close rate this season. I'd be much happier with an 88-90% close rate, though, and I think that would justify his contract.

[Krawhitham]

Whenever I see people get excited over spring stats, I like to tell this story:

In 1996, a friend of mine got a chance to interview Jim Bowden down in spring training. I was down there with him so he invited me to tag along. We met Bowden in his spring training office in Plant City. It was pretty cool, as right behind him was the organizational depth chart. It literally ranked every player in the Reds organization according to position. It was huge.
Also, Ray Knight, the manager that year, was just finishing up his daily meeting with Bowden when we got there. There were going over the roster, and I got to hear them talk about two players, Eric Owens and Jeff Shaw.
The first thing that I noticed was that they didn't use or talk about stats at all. They worked from sheets that broke down every AB or batter faced for each player, pitch by pitch. These sheets had notes on key pitches in each AB. It was these notes that they talked about most.
For Owens, they focused on one AB, when he was facing a hard throwing reliever. (They never said his name, just said that this guy threw mid 90's). They were worried about Owens being able to get around the high heat. In this AB, Owens K'd, but on a 2-2 pitch he turned on the guy's fastball high and tight, and drove it foul, but with home run distance. That one swing did it for them. Owens was now a favorite to make the team.
For Shaw, Knight was trying to convince Bowden that he had set up or closer stuff. He liked that he attacked hitters and was not afraid to pitch inside. He showed Bowden sheet after sheet of him doing that. He also showed him that Shaw bounced back well after getting lit up. Again, no numbers were discussed.
The point is that while all we have to go on is stats, and seeing the few games that we do, the team has access to much, much more detailed data. This enables them to ignore stats, and make much more well informed decisions that we can. This probably is why Ward was let go so early. They probably saw something they didn't like that he could not fix.

Anyway, after that experience (which was one of the most awesome ones of my life), I never second guess a team's roster decisions or worry about spring stats.

Look at what he did the 2nd half of last season, they hit almost .300 off him. His erosion continue this spring

[Caveman Techie]

Don't forget he was playing hurt last year, which required surgery this off-season. I am concerned that he isn't ready to go yet, but I'm not going to join the lynch mob just yet either.

[Kingspoint]

Don't forget he was playing hurt last year, which required surgery this off-season. I am concerned that he isn't ready to go yet, but I'm not going to join the lynch mob just yet either.

No lynch mob is being organized.......yet.

Legitimate concern.

[redsfandan]

Whenever I see people get excited over spring stats, I like to tell this story:

In 1996, a friend of mine got a chance to interview Jim Bowden down in spring training. I was down there with him so he invited me to tag along. We met Bowden in his spring training office in Plant City. It was pretty cool, as right behind him was the organizational depth chart. It literally ranked every player in the Reds organization according to position. It was huge.
Also, Ray Knight, the manager that year, was just finishing up his daily meeting with Bowden when we got there. There were going over the roster, and I got to hear them talk about two players, Eric Owens and Jeff Shaw.
The first thing that I noticed was that they didn't use or talk about stats at all. They worked from sheets that broke down every AB or batter faced for each player, pitch by pitch. These sheets had notes on key pitches in each AB. It was these notes that they talked about most.
For Owens, they focused on one AB, when he was facing a hard throwing reliever. (They never said his name, just said that this guy threw mid 90's). They were worried about Owens being able to get around the high heat. In this AB, Owens K'd, but on a 2-2 pitch he turned on the guy's fastball high and tight, and drove it foul, but with home run distance. That one swing did it for them. Owens was now a favorite to make the team.
For Shaw, Knight was trying to convince Bowden that he had set up or closer stuff. He liked that he attacked hitters and was not afraid to pitch inside. He showed Bowden sheet after sheet of him doing that. He also showed him that Shaw bounced back well after getting lit up. Again, no numbers were discussed.
The point is that while all we have to go on is stats, and seeing the few games that we do, the team has access to much, much more detailed data. This enables them to ignore stats, and make much more well informed decisions that we can. This probably is why Ward was let go so early. They probably saw something they didn't like that he could not fix.

Anyway, after that experience (which was one of the most awesome ones of my life), I never second guess a team's roster decisions or worry about spring stats.

Nice post but I'm not sure I'd look to Bowden for an example of why you shouldn't question roster moves. Too much can be made of spring stats but there's no harm in questioning a move with every angle covered like you hope the team does (short-term effect, long-term effect, options, committed money, track record, defense, etc)