Catcher Defense is only measurable by the eye when you're at the game, but...

[Kingspoint]

...the evidence just keeps piling up.

Since Votto came back June 23rd and Hernandez went back to full-time catching, here are the results:

In 10 more starts, Hernandez has 9 more losses.

When Hernandez starts:

REDS record: 5Wins-10Losses
Average runs given up when Hernandez catches: 5.93 per game
Less the one bad game against the Phils of 16 runs: 5.21 per game

When Hanigan starts:

REDS record 4Wins-1Losses
Average runs given up when Hanigan catches: 3.00 per game
Less the one bad game that Arroyo imploded of 10 runs: 1.25 per game

You can ignore it all you want, but the entire pitching staff does not work well with Hernandez since he took over full-time duties again, and Hanigan does exceptionally. He even got Arroyo's 2nd career shutout.

But, Dusty makes these decisions, and Dusty, like last season, is perfectly OK to go down with a sinking ship. He still gets paid the same. I can't stand Dusty Baker. Have always disliked the guy personally and how he manages a team.

[MJA]

10 games seems way too small a sample size to accurately use, what's Hernandez's history with pitching staffs?

[Kingspoint]

10 games seems way too small a sample size to accurately use, what's Hernandez's history with pitching staffs?

But, that's 20 games, not 10 games.

[Kingspoint]

10 games seems way too small a sample size to accurately use, what's Hernandez's history with pitching staffs?

Everything was fine when Hanigan was catching while Votto was out, then all of a sudden, things changed "dramatically", as noted above. I'm not interested in the past. What's done is done. I'm really interested in what's going on right now. I have a hard time believing that an entire pitching staff can go belly up, and only do it on the days that Hernandez starts (5.21 runs per start on 14 of 15 starts), and then pitch lights out on the days that Hanigan starts (1.25 runs per start for 4 of 5 starts).

[MJA]

But, that's 20 games, not 10 games.

Sorry I misread that, I still want to see a couple more games.

[Kingspoint]

Sorry I misread that, I still want to see a couple more games.

I know it's not a lot, but at what point during a season do you say to yourself that something isn't working, especially when it has such a defining date, such as Votto's return forcing Hernandez to go back behind the plate 6 days a week instead of 1 day a week, which is what it was while Votto was injured.

Maybe Hernandez is tired. Maybe he's lazy mentally or physically. Maybe he's stupid. Whatever it is, it ain't working. It's been nothing short of a disaster going on 20 games (15 for Hernandez and 5 for Hanigan). But to go 4-1 for Ryan and 5-10 for Ramon...well, I don't need to watch 1 more games of that. You'll get 2-0 for Ryan and 3-6 for Ramon, and the REDS will be 8-10 games back of St. Louis, San Francisco, Colorado, and Philadelphia, and 3-5 games back of Florida, Houston, Chicago and Milwaukie.

The season's probably already over, so it doesn't matter.

Dusty will keep getting paid, the fans won't show up to the games, and Castellini will not understand that his "buddy", Baker is the problem, unless Walt says it to his face at the risk of alienating his relationship with Baker.

[BLEEDS]

Are you REALLY putting the pitcher's success, and the teams runs allowed, solely on the catcher?!?!?

SERIOUSLY?!?!?!

No consideration of opponent, schedule, defense, just who the pitcher had to shake the signs off from?

Wow, you are stretching. Is your All-Star break REALLY that boring?

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[Fon Duc Tow]

Hanigan should be in the lineup, but he is not in the lineup because Hernandez is the vet.

I mean, Hanigan had the R.O.Y. locked up. Now he is rotting on the bench.

I don't think Hernandez is solely responsible for the pitching woes of late but it is a curious statistic I'll give you that.

[Captain Hook]

I certainly think that there is something to this.

1.If you had two SS and one was better on defense I'm sure you would see the same difference in how the pitchers do.It might even be worth checking out who else is playing when Hannigan plays.Who knows maybe Dusty wakes up smart once or twice a week and those are the days he starts Hannigan.I'd guess that he plays the best possible line up across the board on those days.

2.For those who believe chemistry plays a big part in a team I think that you would have to agree that a pitcher being more comfortable with their catcher can somehow help them.I don't know how much I believe this myself but I do know that some people do work better together then they would with someone else.

3.I'll support any idea that would get Hannigan's .338 avg and .448 obp in the line up every day.:D

[Kingspoint]

Are you REALLY putting the pitcher's success, and the teams runs allowed, solely on the catcher?!?!?

SERIOUSLY?!?!?!

No consideration of opponent, schedule, defense, just who the pitcher had to shake the signs off from?

Wow, you are stretching. Is your All-Star break REALLY that boring?

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Please explain then why there's a dramatic difference between when Hanigan starts and when Hernandez starts over the last 20 games. Until you come up with something better....

[Kingspoint]

I certainly think that there is something to this.

1.If you had two SS and one was better on defense I'm sure you would see the same difference in how the pitchers do.It might even be worth checking out who else is playing when Hannigan plays.Who knows maybe Dusty wakes up smart once or twice a week and those are the days he starts Hannigan.I'd guess that he plays the best possible line up across the board on those days.

2.For those who believe chemistry plays a big part in a team I think that you would have to agree that a pitcher being more comfortable with their catcher can somehow help them.I don't know how much I believe this myself but I do know that some people do work better together then they would with someone else.

3.I'll support any idea that would get Hannigan's .338 avg and .448 obp in the line up every day.:D


A Seattle starting pitcher just got sent to the minors a couple of days ago when he answered Don Wakamatsu's question, "Why didn't you throw any Curveballs?" He said, "Because none were called".

[Kingspoint]

Many people obviously don't know much about Catchers. It's hard to understand unless you've been a catcher for any length of time, I guess. A catcher has a lot of influence on a pitcher.

Since I can't tell you something that you have to experience first-hand to understand, read these statements from this week and it will give you a small idea of the dynamics that are involved between the results on the field and the input that a catcher has with a pitcher.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/marinersblog/2009456487_seattle_mariners_send_brandon.h

There's an audio clip in there, and I've tried to link it here:

http://blog.seattletimes.nwsource.com/mariners/morrow0710.mp3

20 games, by the way, is a lot of games. It's not a small sample. What was your record in High-School? What did you play? 30 games maybe? You think by 2/3rd's of the season that everyone knew everything about everyone by then? Nobody went around saying. "Hey, Coach, we've only played 20 games. You're looking at a small sample." He'd look at you like you were an idiot if you said that.

[Captain Hook]

Tonight was a little bit more evidence for anyone skeptical of this possibility.Too bad we'll have to wait another week before we can get some more Hannigan stats to add to the sample size.I also suppose that being on base 2 times tonight will bring his obp down so he will have to sit for another week.I'm sure a few people will still say that it is a joke that I would suggest he should play more the Hernandez.When did Dusty learn to brainwash you folks?

[Kingspoint]

Tonight was a little bit more evidence for anyone skeptical of this possibility.Too bad we'll have to wait another week before we can get some more Hannigan stats to add to the sample size.I also suppose that being on base 2 times tonight will bring his obp down so he will have to sit for another week.I'm sure a few people will still say that it is a joke that I would suggest he should play more the Hernandez.When did Dusty learn to brainwash you folks?

30 more games wouldn't narrow enough the wide chasm of differencen between Hanigan's starts and Hernandez' starts....5-1 vs 5-11. And, Hanigan is forced to catch only Arroyo lately. It's nothing short of a miracle how that has turned Arroyo around.

[Krawhitham]

Cather ERA
Hanigan 4.0
Hernandez 4.49

[Kingspoint]

Cather ERA
Hanigan 4.0
Hernandez 4.49

Hernandez was fine at the beginning of the year, when hitters were still adjusting to pitchers. But since hitters have warmed up and Votto has returned, 32 games ago, the difference is Hanigan 1.18 Runs per game and Hernandez about 5.25 runs per game....removing the 1 worst game from each Catcher (the 16 runs given up to the Phils for Ramon, and the 10 Runs given up by one of Arroyo's implosions for Hanigan).

Interesting that both of their initials are RH, but that's about the only similarities between them.

[BLEEDS]

While of course there are some defensive metrics that can be associated to catchers, this "example" of yours is definitely in the "Small Sample Size Theater" variety.

Give it up.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[Captain Hook]

While of course there are some defensive metrics that can be associated to catchers, this "example" of yours is definitely in the "Small Sample Size Theater" variety.

Give it up.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

I'm surprised your not on the Hanigan bandwagon.Is it just this particular argument or do you really think Hernandez should still play everyday?Ramon will likely be gone when the season is over and maybe sooner if another club really needs a C.Actually that's the only reason I'd buy for him playing everyday(to showcase him).2010 is likely the next chance for us to compete.Shouldn't we have the guy that is going to be our everyday C in 2010 playing everyday in 2009 at this point?

[BLEEDS]

I'm surprised your not on the Hanigan bandwagon.Is it just this particular argument or do you really think Hernandez should still play everyday?Ramon will likely be gone when the season is over and maybe sooner if another club really needs a C.Actually that's the only reason I'd buy for him playing everyday(to showcase him).2010 is likely the next chance for us to compete.Shouldn't we have the guy that is going to be our everyday C in 2010 playing everyday in 2009 at this point?

The argument being made is not who's the better catcher offensively or at throwing guys out, etc.. it's that the Team records, and pitcher ERA's, being some kind of magic indicator of their defensive value; it's preposterous.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[Kingspoint]

The argument being made is not who's the better catcher offensively or at throwing guys out, etc.. it's that the Team records, and pitcher ERA's, being some kind of magic indicator of their defensive value; it's preposterous.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

It's only preposterous because the difference is 5.3 runs per game vs 1.5 runs per game!!!!! That's not a "metric". It's Major League vs. Little League.

It's only preposterous because the difference is 5-11 when one starts vs. 6-2 when the other starts.

And, as it turns out, I was right as Hernandez said that he's been dealing with a knee that's so bad for the last several weeks that he has to have surgery and is out 4-6 weeks.

To further prove that I was right, here is what will happen:

1. The REDS will instantly play better now that Hernandez is gone than the record they had since Hernandez returned to the plate (5-11 when Hernandez started and 4-1 when Hanigan started for a 9-12 record. I won't count the last 3 games as Hernandez has been gone.) They are already 2-1 now.

2. The REDS will continue to play well when Hernandez returns and he's behind the plate in September. They won't play .300 ball when he starts at Catcher.

[Kingspoint]

The argument being made is not who's the better catcher offensively or at throwing guys out, etc.. it's that the Team records, and pitcher ERA's, being some kind of magic indicator of their defensive value; it's preposterous.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Not looking at ERA's.

Looking at Runs given up and wins and losses. If there was a small difference it wouldn't mean anything, but they went from playing for 1st place against the Cardinals to nearly being completely knocked out of the playoff race.

It's so obvious, and now the injury says that I was right all along, that there was something drastically wrong.

[MJA]

I don't understand how the injury confirms your belief, form what I read I've heard that when it comes to catchers, their effect on a staff is minimal at best.

Can you point me to any articles that say otherwise?

[Kingspoint]

I don't understand how the injury confirms your belief, form what I read I've heard that when it comes to catchers, their effect on a staff is minimal at best.

Can you point me to any articles that say otherwise?

Peter Gammons just had a nice article in BA in July. I saw it in the magazine itself, not online, though it may be, but you need a subscription.

Your best bet is to find someone who has been a Catcher at the Major League level and ask them. I'm sure there are many out there who will respond to an email.

Try Dave Valle, for example.

Try Dan Wilson, specifically.

[BLEEDS]

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/200...one-stop-using

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...articleid=1489

Just for starters...

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[Kingspoint]

Bleeds, seriously. As much email time as you have send one to Dan Wilson. I never have before sent one to him, but I'm sure he will enlighten you as much as he would enlighten me.

There's a lot of great stats out there in baseball regarding Offense. There isn't anything out there you're going to find about the effect a Catcher has on a Pitcher that even covers 10% of what's involved. It's like trying to find the effect of a Center with statistics on the effect of a football team's Offense. Winning Football teams have All-Pro Centers. Great baseball staffs have All-Pro Catchers. Unfortunately, Catchers are voted to the All-Star game because of their Offense.

Understanding a Catcher's effect on a game is just a black hole in the statistical world of baseball. Throw all the stats you want out there. They are just going to be gobbled up as irrelevant.

[Shawn_RedsFan]

:rolleyes: stupid Hanigan

[BLEEDS]

Understanding a Catcher's effect on a game is just a black hole in the statistical world of baseball. Throw all the stats you want out there. They are just going to be gobbled up as irrelevant.

Well at least we can agree on something...

Now, WHO is the person throwing out stats - such as wins and losses and Team ERA in an attempt to "prove" the value of one catcher versus another, in a thread entitled "Catcher Defense..." ?!?!!?

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[jimbo]

Hanigan must have been off his game last night giving up 7 runs.

[flash]

Hanigan must have been off his game last night giving up 7 runs.

Give him a break, he did throw out three base-stealers and smother a sacrifice. If he had taken a walk instead of striking out with 2 on he could have been the hero. But that is the problem. IF

[Mutaman]

They are already 2-1 now.



They are already 2-2 now.

[BLEEDS]

Hanigan must have been off his game last night giving up 7 runs.

Yeah, he sucks. He ruined the whole game.

Good thing he was in instead of Hernandez though, as then the catcher position would have given up 11 runs.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[jimbo]

Give him a break, he did throw out three base-stealers and smother a sacrifice. If he had taken a walk instead of striking out with 2 on he could have been the hero. But that is the problem. IF

You totally missed the sarcasm.

[Kingspoint]

Well at least we can agree on something...

Now, WHO is the person throwing out stats - such as wins and losses and Team ERA in an attempt to "prove" the value of one catcher versus another, in a thread entitled "Catcher Defense..." ?!?!!?

PEACE

-BLEEDS

The point I was trying to make was that something was wrong. Yes, I used the increase in runs scored when Hernandez caught after he went back to Catching when Votto came back. I pleaded for people to come up with reasons why this was happening. I knew something was wrong and it turned out I was right, as Hernandez had been dealing with some major pain since that 1st day he returned to Catching after Votto came back. I was a Catcher, not at the Major League level, of course, but I know enough about it that I know at the Major League level, they have a huge influence on the outcome of how many runs are scored in the game. Again, if anyone doubts this, then get the "correct" information from the right source and email Dan Wilson and ask him.

[Kingspoint]

They are already 2-2 now. Which is much better than what Hernandez was doing (5-11). And, the runs scored last night still puts his runs/per game given up at far fewer than what Hernandez was giving up over those 16 games.

[Kingspoint]

Yeah, he sucks. He ruined the whole game.

Good thing he was in instead of Hernandez though, as then the catcher position would have given up 11 runs.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

The difference you'll see tonight is that if Hernandez was still out there, the Runs would continue to be scored against the REDS, but now with Hanigan having dealt with them for a night and Hanigan's chance of working with another pitcher, the runs given up tonight will be far less than what Hernandez would have given up.

The Dodgers aren't going to run on Hanigan tonight unless Bailey's pitching, as Bailey is easy to run on. I'd be totally shocked if the Dodgers score 4 runs tonight.

[Mutaman]

Well I'll give you credit Kingspoint. Personally I like both Ramone and Hannigan, and I thought Baker was using them in just the right way. I also felt that all of the posters who kept arguing that making Hannigan the starter was somehow going to turn this team into a contender(or make any difference whatsoever) were wrong. I also figured that these posters would disappear now that Hannigan is the starter and when it turns out that he is not the savior.

But you're still here sticking up for what you believe in. And I hope you turn out to be right and that I am wrong.

[Kingspoint]

Mutaman, I like Hernandez, too. I just felt strongly that something was wrong, and I was just trying to figure out what it was. It turned out he was badly injured, we now know.

There's no reason to believe that Hanigan can't maintain the sub-4 runs per game he's been giving up when he catches this season for the rest of the season. Not having Bruce defensively is a killer, though, and I guess that having EE defensively is even worse.

What was really bad last night was watching the team as a whole. They all looked like doo-doo. There seemed to be an I-don't-care-play-out-the-season attitude with the whole team. Nice job, Dusty, if this is what you bring to the team.

I'd be willing to guess that the entire team went their separate ways after the game last night, including Baker and his coaching staff. A team that cares about winning hangs out with each other. Attitude comes from the top, and the team last night showed exactly what Baker brings to the team from a management standpoint.

[Mutaman]

I don't think the problem last night was that the team wasn't having pizza together after the game, nor do I think there was an attitude issue. I think the problem last night was that That Micah Owens was serving up 85-90 mph lollipops over the heart of the plate.

[Kingspoint]

I don't think the problem last night was that the team wasn't having pizza together after the game, nor do I think there was an attitude issue. I think the problem last night was that That Micah Owens was serving up 85-90 mph lollipops over the heart of the plate.

While I agree with you about Owings, you didn't sense a total meltdown by the entire team last night?

[BLEEDS]

That Hanigan Defense really making an impact tonight...

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[Boston Red]

Well, I think we can safely cross Hernandez off the list as the source of the Reds' troubles now.

[Mutaman]

Well, I think we can safely cross Hernandez off the list as the source of the Reds' troubles now.

The post of the year! You really ought to win some kind of award.

[BLEEDS]

I like Pizza.

PEACE

-BLEEDS