9/13/09 Reds vs Cubs

[Red in Chicago]

Bailey (5-4, 5.60) vs Lilly (11-8, 3.17)

Lineups later

[Tom Servo]

Stubbs CF
Janish SS
Votto 1B
Phillips 2B
Rolen 3B
Gomes LF
McDonald RF
Hanigan C
Bailey P


Can't say I'll be watching this one much, what with the football and my Panthers playing and all.

[HeatherC1212]

I'll be checking in on the Reds but I'm watching the Bengals right now just to see how they look in their first game.

[HokieRed]

Is Balentien hurt?

[BCubb2003]

The Cubs TV announcer just did a Domo Aragato reference to Joey Votto and a ZZ Top reference to Homer Bailey.

[jojo]

You won't see an inning like this one from Phillips very often.

[jojo]

I'll be checking in on the Reds but I'm watching the Bengals right now just to see how they look in their first game.

Who will score more today-the Reds or the Bengals offense?

[jojo]

Rolen deserved to score in the 4th inning.....

It's going to be a joy watching him next season.

[HokieRed]

Bailey hurt badly by the ump's unwillingness to call Ramirez out looking on a perfect 2-2 curveball.

[jojo]

Bailey hurt badly by the ump's unwillingness to call Ramirez out looking on a perfect 2-2 curveball.

Ya the curveball looked good but Bailey threw meatballs on 0-2 counts on both run scoring hits.

[Raisor]

Who will score more today-the Reds or the Bengals offense?

RFS62

[jojo]

Is watching the Bengals a sign of mental illness? I want to believe things can get better with every fiber in my body. I have never felt more gullible than this very second (Stockley just went 87 yards with 11 seconds left).

[nate]

Is watching the Bengals a sign of mental illness? I want to believe things can get better with every fiber in my body. I have never felt more gullible than this very second (Stockley just went 87 yards with 11 seconds left).

Yes.

[mth123]

Haven't been watching today. I see a ho hum performance from Bailey. 9 Hits in 5.333 IP. Was he hit hard or was it a bunch of bleeders, bunts and seeing eye hits?

[RedsManRick]

Haven't been watching today. I see a ho hum performance from Bailey. 9 Hits in 5.333 IP. Was he hit hard or was it a bunch of bleeders, bunts and seeing eye hits?

I haven't been watching, but I did see he let him go 115 pitches to do. Homer's a big boy, so I won't get too worked up about it, but here are his pitch counts since Aug 23:

8/23: 114
8/28: 115
9/2: 116
9/7: 117
9/13: 115

Really Dusty? In a lost season you need to push him 115 pitches every single time he takes the mound? It was one thing to do this to Mark Prior and Kerry Wood when you were chasing a pennant, but this team is not in the race...

[mth123]

I haven't been watching, but I did see he let him go 115 pitches to do. Homer's a big boy, so I won't get too worked up about it, but here are his pitch counts since Aug 23:

8/23: 114
8/28: 115
9/2: 116
9/7: 117
9/13: 115

Really Dusty? In a lost season you need to push him 115 pitches every single time he takes the mound? It was one thing to do this to Mark Prior and Kerry Wood when you were chasing a pennant, but this team is not in the race...

Gotta get 6 out of him???? Chasing that quality start.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Sorry, I don't buy that. Fans have their heads stuck on this 100 imaginary pitch count limit. Yes, it's a nice round number, but it's garbage. Every pitcher is different and Homer can EASILY go 120 each outing. It's HOW he goes 120 that matters. If he's throwing free and easy (like he has been lately) then 120 is no big deal at all. That's FAR from pushing him IMO.

There are times I wish they'd never even invented using pitch counts at all.

[dougdirt]

Sorry, I don't buy that. Fans have their heads stuck on this 100 imaginary pitch count limit. Yes, it's a nice round number, but it's garbage. Every pitcher is different and Homer can EASILY go 120 each outing. It's HOW he goes 120 that matters. If he's throwing free and easy (like he has been lately) then 120 is no big deal at all. That's FAR from pushing him IMO.

There are times I wish they'd never even invented using pitch counts at all.
What evidence is there that its no big deal for Homer to do it?

[nate]

Sorry, I don't buy that. Fans have their heads stuck on this 100 imaginary pitch count limit. Yes, it's a nice round number, but it's garbage. Every pitcher is different and Homer can EASILY go 120 each outing. It's HOW he goes 120 that matters. If he's throwing free and easy (like he has been lately) then 120 is no big deal at all. That's FAR from pushing him IMO.

There are times I wish they'd never even invented using pitch counts at all.

Was he throwing "free and easy" today?

How do we know it's "no big deal" for him to do it?

[mth123]

Sorry, I don't buy that. Fans have their heads stuck on this 100 imaginary pitch count limit. Yes, it's a nice round number, but it's garbage. Every pitcher is different and Homer can EASILY go 120 each outing. It's HOW he goes 120 that matters. If he's throwing free and easy (like he has been lately) then 120 is no big deal at all. That's FAR from pushing him IMO.

There are times I wish they'd never even invented using pitch counts at all.

23 YO pitcher who has logged 30 more innings than he has ever thrown in a season. Rosters are expanded and there are tons of guys available. Its not the point in the season to be stepping on the gas. Its the point where they should be backing off. I'd shut him down personally.

Keeping Homer healthy is more inportant than some arbitrary lesson about getting him over the hump or whatever. This team has lost a ton of young pitching to injuries this year, including its number one starter on the big league club. Homer is probably the key to next year's rotation. I'd be cautious and keep him healthy. It may be ok to push these guys, no one really knows, but why take the chance with a guy who is in such uncharted territory?

[_Sir_Charles_]

What evidence is there that its no big deal for Homer to do it?

None. And what evidence is there that it IS a big deal if he does it? None again. You look at his mechanics as he's pitching. You look at how he's handling things each inning. In other words, you use your best judgement and the judgement of your catcher and of the pitcher himself. Not some mystical number of 100 like it's a one size fits all baseball cap.

I'm all for erring on the side of caution. But at what point is being TOO cautious a bad thing? I'm not suggesting that we physically push all our pitchers to the breaking point. Just that we use common sense instead of some arbitrary number.

[HokieRed]

Agree with mth. If they're going to keep throwing Homer the rest of the season, he should be on a rigidly enforced 100 pitch count. It's obvious there is no other way to control Dusty.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Why 100? Why not 95? Why not 88? Why not 174?

Who is this baseball knowitall who decided it's got to be 100?

Okay, I'll drop it now. Sorry, it's just one of those things that irritates the heck out of me.

[RedsManRick]

Sorry, I don't buy that. Fans have their heads stuck on this 100 imaginary pitch count limit. Yes, it's a nice round number, but it's garbage. Every pitcher is different and Homer can EASILY go 120 each outing. It's HOW he goes 120 that matters. If he's throwing free and easy (like he has been lately) then 120 is no big deal at all. That's FAR from pushing him IMO.

There are times I wish they'd never even invented using pitch counts at all.

Don't get me wrong; I'm not hung up on the 100 number. Some guys tire and start to lose it at 80, others can go to 120, as you say. And even then, it depends on the day. The assessment should be one based on past experience, injury history, and observation of the pitcher during that day. Is he losing velocity or control? Is he taking extra time? I'm not pretending to suggest there's a magic number. However, history has shown us that when get up above 110 on a regular basis, most pitchers start to get tired and lose effectiveness. I have no problem with Dusty pushing Homer in to that 110+ range on occasion to explore how he handles it. I just don't like to see it every time out, especially on a day when he clearly didn't have his best stuff.

My worry is not that I think Dusty is in the process of breaking Homer or anything. It's that Dusty is pushing Homer to his limit every time out. It's clearly not a science in terms of how long a pitcher can safely pitch. But every time you take a pitcher to his limit, you risk it being that time when you actually let him go a few pitches too far, where he loses his mechanics and fights through it anyways and starts to do damage to himself. I just think there's more to lose than to gain by pushing Homer this much every time out.

[nate]

Why 100? Why not 95? Why not 88? Why not 174?

Who is this baseball knowitall who decided it's got to be 100?

Okay, I'll drop it now. Sorry, it's just one of those things that irritates the heck out of me.

Why not "he's thrown more innings than he's ever thrown before so why throw 'a bunch' of pitches when the team has an expanded roster?"

[mth123]

Don't get me wrong; I'm not hung up on the 100 number. Some guys tire and start to lose it at 80, others can go to 120, as you say. And even then, it depends on the day. The assessment should be one based on past experience, injury history, and observation of the pitcher during that day. Is he losing velocity or control? Is he taking extra time? I'm not pretending to suggest there's a magic number. However, history has shown us that when get up above 110 on a regular basis, most pitchers start to get tired and lose effectiveness. I have no problem with Dusty pushing Homer in to that 110+ range on occasion to explore how he handles it. I just don't like to see it every time out, especially on a day when he clearly didn't have his best stuff.

My worry is not that I think Dusty is in the process of breaking Homer or anything. It's that Dusty is pushing Homer to his limit every time out. It's clearly not a science in terms of how long a pitcher can safely pitch. But every time you take a pitcher to his limit, you risk it being that time when you actually let him go a few pitches too far, where he loses his mechanics and fights through it anyways and starts to do damage to himself. I just think there's more to lose than to gain by pushing Homer this much every time out.

Exactly.

[TheNext44]

I did watch the game... yes I am that pathetic... and I thought that it would have been smart to take Bailey out after the 5th. He wasn't struggling, he was still throwing easily and with confidence, but that's why I thought it would have been smart.

He was losing, he just got out of a tough jam with a K and GO, why push him? Let him enjoy another solid start and build his confidence by resting him. It's not like the Reds were about to score 4 runs the next half inning and get him a win.

Anyway, that was my take when I was watching it unfold.

[HokieRed]

I'm no longer worried about his confidence at all. The kid's whole bearing on the mound seems to me very different than early in the year. He now knows he can get hitters out, especially if umpires will actually call the strike zone. I'm worried about his arm. There's nothing magical about the number 100 obviously; make it 95 or 103. But I see no purpose in letting Dusty push him out to 120 every time out.

[RFS62]

I was at the game. First row, right behind the catcher.

Schwing!!!!