The big rumored Mets/Reds trade

[somethingtony]

This is from a writer with at least some knowledge of the situation. He said he is making a guess at the deal but it is an educated guess. So, I would imagine he knows for sure a few of these names would be in the deal. Here's the break down.

Reds:
Castillo
Pelfrey/Maine
Pagan
Fernando Martinez

Mets:
Arroyo/Harang
Phillips

Thatas s lot of money off the books and some pretty good names coming back. I have yet to decide if I like this deal or not.

Having trouble with hyperlink right now. So its a cut and paste for now.

http://www.metsblog.com/2010/01/11/buzz-the-mets-reds-and-the-pitchers-market/

[Vottomatic]

I hate it.

Castillo is 35, and other than playing 140+ games last year, has been mostly a utility player the previous 3 seasons. He has had a solid career, and if we were looking for him to be a backup, then that would be okay. The problem is, he's scheduled to make $6.25M the next 2 seasons.

The only player in the deal I like is Maine. I don't want Pelfrey.

Pagan and Martinez are OFers. Why do we need more OFers again?

Geez, grab a SS while we're at it. If we're going to add payroll, in like Castillo, why not ask for Reyes ($9M). We're freeing up $24.75M in Arroyo/Harang + nearly $7M Phillips. If we're saving $31.75M, we should atleast get Reyes back for $9M, which he's only signed through '10.

We give up 2 frontline innings eater starters and a gold glove caliber second baseman with decent numbers, and that's all we get?

I'd be happy with Maine ($2.6M) and Reyes ($9M). I'd take no less. If they want to throw in Castillo ($6.25M) so we have a 2nd baseman to replace BP, then that is fine. I was hoping Frazier would be ready this year. We'd still save about $14M. Maine is arbitration eligible this year. Castillo's contract is up after '11, and Reyes contract is up after this season.

[Old NDN]

After reading the Mets blog, sounds like they expect the Reds to take a lot of their "extras" in this proposed deal. I would offer Harang/Arroyo and Phillips for Reyes.

[Vottomatic]

After reading the Mets blog, sounds like they expect the Reds to take a lot of their "extras" in this proposed deal. I would offer Harang/Arroyo and Phillips for Reyes.

Harang/Arroyo/Phillips for Reyes/Maine. We gotta get atleast 1 starting pitcher back. We lose 2 starters in the trade, and Volquez probably won't be back at all next season. Bailey, Cueto, and who?

[somethingtony]

I hate it.

Castillo is 35, and other than playing 140+ games last year, has been mostly a utility player the previous 3 seasons. He has had a solid career, and if we were looking for him to be a backup, then that would be okay. The problem is, he's scheduled to make $6.25M the next 2 seasons.

The only player in the deal I like is Maine. I don't want Pelfrey.

Pagan and Martinez are OFers. Why do we need more OFers again?

Geez, grab a SS while we're at it. If we're going to add payroll, in like Castillo, why not ask for Reyes ($9M). We're freeing up $24.75M in Arroyo/Harang + nearly $7M Phillips. If we're saving $31.75M, we should atleast get Reyes back for $9M, which he's only signed through '10.

We give up 2 frontline innings eater starters and a gold glove caliber second baseman with decent numbers, and that's all we get?

I'd be happy with Maine ($2.6M) and Reyes ($9M). I'd take no less. If they want to throw in Castillo ($6.25M) so we have a 2nd baseman to replace BP, then that is fine. I was hoping Frazier would be ready this year. We'd still save about $14M. Maine is arbitration eligible this year. Castillo's contract is up after '11, and Reyes contract is up after this season.
Just as a heads up it's a Arroyo or Harang deal. Martinez was a top prospect just a year ago. You can always use that. From the way it read Pagan was one of the suggestions by him. I could see him replaced with someone else. I know they have an up and coming SS in the minors. I would love Reyes but I really don't think we could pry him away.

[BLEEDS]

Harang/Arroyo/Phillips for Reyes/Maine. We gotta get atleast 1 starting pitcher back. We lose 2 starters in the trade, and Volquez probably won't be back at all next season. Bailey, Cueto, and who?

I think he meant Harang OR Arroyo.

Pretty sure that's what "/" means, otherwise it would be "," or "&".

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[Vottomatic]

I hope it's Harang then.

[Old NDN]

I think he meant Harang OR Arroyo.

Pretty sure that's what "/" means, otherwise it would be "," or "&".

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Thanks, it was what I meant. I guess I could have been more clear. Maybe Alonso to sweeten the deal. I just don't see where he is going to fit for the Reds. So, it could be Harang OR Arroyo, Phillips, and Alonso for Reyes and one of the aforementioned Mets list.

[Trace's Daddy]

Could (Harang-or- Arroyo) + Alonso + minor leaguer for Reyes work without adding a lot of payroll? Reyes and Phillips in the middle would be quite sweet.

[BLEEDS]

Could (Harang-or- Arroyo) + Alonso + minor leaguer for Reyes work without adding a lot of payroll? Reyes and Phillips in the middle would be quite sweet.

Perhaps, but we HAVE to trade BP before next year. No matter how much he progresses, he is never going to be worth $11M+ per year.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[roby]

I hate this trade. I wouldn't trade Phillips, PERIOD. I know his salary goes up next year, but I hope the Reds don't underestimate what he brings to the team. I'd rather have him than Reyes, even. Phillips is just beginning to really grow up and come into his own. It is yet to be seen how good he will get.

[Vottomatic]

I hate this trade. I wouldn't trade Phillips, PERIOD. I know his salary goes up next year, but I hope the Reds don't underestimate what he brings to the team. I'd rather have him than Reyes, even. Phillips is just beginning to really grow up and come into his own. It is yet to be seen how good he will get.

On the flipside, SS is a more important position, and Reyes is a career .280 batter with 300 stolen bases, a good OBP, and is still only around 27 years old. Plus he only makes $9M next season. We'd have to extend him if we want to keep him around, which I doubt would happen.

I only wanted Reyes to help us contend next year. I fully expect Cozart to be our future SS, hopefully as soon as '11.

Plus, if you unload salary, the opposing team more than likely wants to unload a little of their own to offset what they take on. Not saying the Mets want to unload Reyes, but if we unload $19M, there's no reason we shouldn't go after our biggest need, which is SS.

[mdccclxix]

I hate this trade. I wouldn't trade Phillips, PERIOD. I know his salary goes up next year, but I hope the Reds don't underestimate what he brings to the team. I'd rather have him than Reyes, even. Phillips is just beginning to really grow up and come into his own. It is yet to be seen how good he will get.

Phillips may look to restructure like Rolen. He wants to be a Red for life, give it a shot. Dude's tough as nails and a perfect 7 hitter in the lineups of the future.

Does this block Frazier? Yes, and no. Frazier hasn't proven anything in MLB yet, but he'll get the chance. Personally, I think Frazier should be a Sept callup at the earliest because you don't want to start his clock too soon if Rolen and BP are healthy.

[mdccclxix]

On the flipside, SS is a more important position, and Reyes is a career .280 batter with 300 stolen bases, a good OBP, and is still only around 27 years old. Plus he only makes $9M next season. We'd have to extend him if we want to keep him around, which I doubt would happen.

I only wanted Reyes to help us contend next year. I fully expect Cozart to be our future SS, hopefully as soon as '11.

Plus, if you unload salary, the opposing team more than likely wants to unload a little of their own to offset what they take on. Not saying the Mets want to unload Reyes, but if we unload $19M, there's no reason we shouldn't go after our biggest need, which is SS.

Tex and Ana are other good options for SS. You have to give up so much to get a SS, might as well be one you figure on keeping.

[Ghosts of 1990]

I don't think I buy it. Fernando Martinez is going to be a stud. They look at him like their Jay Bruce basically.

And we get Maine or Pelfrey? I'd want Pelfrey based on age alone.

Castillo is about done. I guess Frazier could be the 2B of the future if Phillips leaves but that exploits us pretty bad from the RH side of the plate.

I don't think this ever goes down.

[ILoveWilly]

This is stupid - I don't want anything to do with trading Harang or Arroyo as a salary dump to a team who has a $100 mil plus payroll. Arroyo was as good as pretty much any pitcher in the majors after the ASB, and could have been had for practically nothing at the break, and ended up with a sub 4 ERA after a horrible start. And Harang had an average 4.21 ERA, and its obvious the biggest thing this guy needs over anything else is some luck, a new environment, and some run support. If the guy was on the Yankees or something he wins 15 games and has a 3.5 era.

If no one is offering anything worth a crap, bite the bullet and keep them. Maybe Harang will have some luck this go around.

[BLEEDS]

Phillips may look to restructure like Rolen. He wants to be a Red for life, give it a shot. Dude's tough as nails and a perfect 7 hitter in the lineups of the future.
Does this block Frazier? Yes, and no. Frazier hasn't proven anything in MLB yet, but he'll get the chance. Personally, I think Frazier should be a Sept callup at the earliest because you don't want to start his clock too soon if Rolen and BP are healthy.

Problem is, Dusty has him as a cleanup hitter, and his ego thinks he should be there too. He is against LHP, but against RHP he's more like an 8th place hitter - 9th if you had Larussa managing.

If BP could lose the EGO - AND we actually had better candidates to hit in the 4 hole versus RHP, then he'd be ideal, at a reduced cost.

I can't see him taking less money, but a restructured deal on the lines of $5-6M would be worth it. It is too much to swallow for him IMO.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[TheBigLebowski]

Bakermetricians hate this deal.

[mdccclxix]

Problem is, Dusty has him as a cleanup hitter, and his ego thinks he should be there too. He is against LHP, but against RHP he's more like an 8th place hitter - 9th if you had Larussa managing.

If BP could lose the EGO - AND we actually had better candidates to hit in the 4 hole versus RHP, then he'd be ideal, at a reduced cost.

I can't see him taking less money, but a restructured deal on the lines of $5-6M would be worth it. It is too much to swallow for him IMO.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

He's a competitor, I don't think it's ego. If he wasn't confident, he'd get killed even more in the 4 hole. Hitting 7th for a pennant contender is no slight.
Stubbs / Dickerson
Heisey / Cozart
Alonso / BP
Votto
Rolen/BP
Bruce
BP / Rolen
Janish/Cozart
Ramon/Hanny

Lots of options, lot's of talent.

[Vottomatic]

This is from a writer with at least some knowledge of the situation. He said he is making a guess at the deal but it is an educated guess. So, I would imagine he knows for sure a few of these names would be in the deal. Here's the break down.

Reds:
Castillo
Pelfrey/Maine
Pagan
Fernando Martinez

Mets:
Arroyo/Harang
Phillips

Thatas s lot of money off the books and some pretty good names coming back. I have yet to decide if I like this deal or not.

Having trouble with hyperlink right now. So its a cut and paste for now.

http://www.metsblog.com/2010/01/11/buzz-the-mets-reds-and-the-pitchers-market/

Maine may be 28 and Pelphrey may be only 26, but Maine's numbers are far better. Maine every day of the week.

I'd sign JHJ as a free agent before I took on Castillo's contract. You could probably have JHJ for $3 or $4M rather than take on Castillo's $6.25M.

I've since read that Martinez was one of their best prospects, so I guess I'm fine with that, aside from our glut of OFers. I assume Walt is just stockpiling talent for future trades.

If it's just a salary dump, then whatever. Grab some additional good prospects and let's move on. We can live with Harang gone, if we get Maine back. Maine might even be an upgrade. He's certainly nearly $10M cheaper.

[Kingspoint]

Whatever it takes to get rid of the salaries of Arroyo and Harang, I'm all for it.

[Kingspoint]

Maine may be 28 and Pelphrey may be only 26, but Maine's numbers are far better. Maine every day of the week.

I'd sign JHJ as a free agent before I took on Castillo's contract. You could probably have JHJ for $3 or $4M rather than take on Castillo's $6.25M.

I've since read that Martinez was one of their best prospects, so I guess I'm fine with that, aside from our glut of OFers. I assume Walt is just stockpiling talent for future trades.

If it's just a salary dump, then whatever. Grab some additional good prospects and let's move on. We can live with Harang gone, if we get Maine back. Maine might even be an upgrade. He's certainly nearly $10M cheaper.

I'd love to get Maine in return for Arroyo or Harang, but not for Phillips. I want Phillips on this team the first half of this season, but if it's necessary for getting rid of Arroyo and/or Harang, then I'm OK with it. I don't see 2010 as a season for going to the playoffs anyway, and Phillips is no good to the team in 2011 with that salary of his ready to escalate. Getting rid of him now or in July won't matter.

[Redus]

Id do it. In a NY minute. Frees up some cash and we get a decent starter and some good young of's.

[roby]

If the Reds are ever going to win in Major League Baseball, they are going to have to increase payroll. We have got to dispense with the thinking that keeps droning on about unloading salary and trading our best players away because they are about to get paid what they are worth. Brandon Phillips, for example, is a keeper. I would rather move him to shortstop than trade him as a salary dump. If Dusty doesn't like that idea...then TRADE DUSTY. (And I like Dusty!).

If a soap company came out and said, "We got a really crappy product here and it will stay crappy until people start buying our soap. Once we make a nice profit, we'll improve the product. Oh, yes... And the tax payers are going to have to build us a new soap factory besides." That company would never make it! And that is exactly the mentality around this baseball club. I think it will stay that way until fans start speaking up about moving forward with talent...instead of dumping salary and signing washed up has-beens. The only way the Reds will ever win is to increase payroll and act like a Major League Club.

[Vottomatic]

This organization is on the right path. They'll spend money on their own when these guys prove themselves and deserve a bigger paycheck......i.e. Votto, Bruce, etc.

[Newman4]

A trade of Harang and Phillips for Maine, Castillo, Pagan and Martinez is actually pretty good for the Reds. Maine and Harang have been comparable the last 3-4 years, but Maine is quite a bit cheaper and 3 years younger. Reds save at least $15 million over the next two years with Maine vs. Harang. BP is better than Castillo, but not as much as you would think. BP put up a .276/329/447/776 line to Castillo's .302/387/346/733 which are both about what they average for their careers. BP is 5 years younger and costs 5.75 million more over the next two years. Here is where it turns in the Reds favor....Pagan is under team control for the next 3 years. Don't look now but OPSed .837 at age 27 last year and has a higher career OPS than BP. He plays all three OF spots. Pretty nice cheap productive player. AND, the Reds get a big time prospect in Martinez AND save 20+ million $.

[double21d]

I don't believe it for a minute. That trade would basically mean the Reds are unwilling to compete this year. Although it would be a salary dump, the Reds would take on a decent amount of money in Castillo. He only makes a little less than Phillips and isn't nearly the player that Phillips is. No chance this happens if anyone has a brain in Cincy.

[somethingtony]

Ok I'm on the boat now that I like this trade. We would be trading for four ML players. So I'm not sure we can say they are not willing to compete this year. What if it came down to just Arroyo for Martinez? I have heard that is what Walt wants but Omar obviously is not giving in. I think a lot will hinge on Pinero.

[BLEEDS]

I don't want Arroyo traded.

I still think the best way to compete this year is to package Harang/Alonso for Reyes. It'd be about even on dollars - maybe give us some salary relief since we're throwing in Alonso - and gives us a stop-gap SS so we could compete this year.

I believe Walt thinks he can now afford to stand pat if necessary and possibly wait until the ASB before even considering trades of either of those two. It's just as easy to wait until the end of the season and simply decline their options. SOMEBODY'S got to throw those innings in the 1/2 spot and leave the 3/4/5 for the kids.

BP is another quandry. He is perfectly paid this year, but his $11M albatross contract in 2011 is going to be very hard to justify. He needs to add about 100 pts to his OPS versus RHP to earn it IMO.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[Vottomatic]

I don't want Arroyo traded.

I still think the best way to compete this year is to package Harang/Alonso for Reyes. It'd be about even on dollars - maybe give us some salary relief since we're throwing in Alonso - and gives us a stop-gap SS so we could compete this year.

I believe Walt thinks he can now afford to stand pat if necessary and possibly wait until the ASB before even considering trades of either of those two. It's just as easy to wait until the end of the season and simply decline their options. SOMEBODY'S got to throw those innings in the 1/2 spot and leave the 3/4/5 for the kids.

BP is another quandry. He is perfectly paid this year, but his $11M albatross contract in 2011 is going to be very hard to justify. He needs to add about 100 pts to his OPS versus RHP to earn it IMO.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

We are in agreement. I've been touting getting Reyes the entire time. He's a FA after '10 and the Mets could re-sign him then. It would give us a quality SS for next year until Cozart is hopefully ready in '11. He makes $9M next year. Trading Harang/Alonso saves $13.25M, so we save $4M if we pick up Reyes. I'd still like to get Maine though too.

If they take Phillips off our hands, I believe we would have to take Castillo in return to free up their salary crunch. The bad news is, Castillo makes $6.25M each of the next two season ('10,'11). But that is still a savings over BP's $7M this season and $11M in '11. I prefer trading Harang than Arroyo:

Harang ($12.5M)/Phillips ($7M)/Alonso ($1M)/Valaika for Reyes ($9M)/Maine ($3M)/Martinez/Castillo ($6.25M)

I think the concern about Maine is how durable he is. Can he pitch 200 innings? Mets had durability issues with their starters last year. With Harang, they know he can. Phillips and Reyes is nearly an even swap, with us probably getting the better end of the deal. Plus Reyes contract is up after '10. We have no place for Alonso to play with Votto at 1B, and the Mets need a future first baseman. Martinez is our tradeoff for Alonso. Castillo is a salary dump and they get Valaika to play SS or throw in Janish.

[somethingtony]

Nothing super reliable but figure I'd post it anyways:

From: @CharlieBurkNYC
Sent: Jan 14, 2010 11:54a

one more for now, the reds are "close" to trading "a pitcher". guessing harang or arroyo, heard mets and cubs talked to jocketty recently...

sent via web
On Twitter: http://twitter.com/CharlieBurkNYC/status/7753860187

[Kingspoint]

This organization is on the right path. They'll spend money on their own when these guys prove themselves and deserve a bigger paycheck......i.e. Votto, Bruce, etc.

Yes. Why spend $12M on Arroyo and/or Harang now, when that $12M will be needed for those players you mention (and others) in just a few years. Put the money away, stay solvent, and don't look at everything as just a one-year plan.

[Vottomatic]

I don't see anyone the Reds COULD AFFORD to spend money on, in terms of Free Agents, that would do any better than the young guys already on the major league roster or on the verge of the majors. No sense wasting money on stopgaps unless you clearly have no one to fill a position.

[The Voice of IH]

I say don't jump on any trade so early. we have till the deadline, why not just sit on these two until the price is right? or even better then right?

[swaisuc]

I say don't jump on any trade so early. we have till the deadline, why not just sit on these two until the price is right? or even better then right?

How do you know the price isn't right now? I find it reasonable to think maybe the other teams are seeing how weak the FA options left are and they are willing to overpay in a trade instead (either in terms of players or in terms of taking on the whole contract).

I understand your point that we can afford to be flexible, but flexible includes making a deal now if you get a good offer. It really isn't that bad of a time to be selling IMO.