The impending Harang/Arroyo trade

[jredmo2]

In the spirit of spring training optimism, let's say the Reds are doing pretty well at the deadline, and not the typical Reds' "hanging around .500" definition of success, but has a good chance at a playoff spot. Do you still deal Harang and Arroyo? Both have team options for 2011, so we have some flexibility.

If they are pitching really well, are you inclined to hang on to them because Reds winning seasons are so hard to come by? Or do you unload them when their value is high, since neither appear to figure into the rotation long-term?

FYI, here is the contract info:

Harang:

# 10:$12.5M,
# 11:$12.75M ($2M buyout)
# 2011 option increases to $13M with 210 IP in 2010
# if traded, 2011 option becomes mutual option at $14M ($2.5M buyout)

Arroyo:

# 10:$11M
# 11:$11M club option ($2M buyout)
# 2011 option may increase to $13M based on IP

[BEETTLEBUG]

No ask them if they would defer their money or trade just one

[Caveman Techie]

If the Reds are truly in the hunt for the playoffs, and Harang and Arroyo are pitching well. Why in the world would you dismantle your starting rotation heading in to the homestretch?

If anything you look at improving your team by picking up someone else's unloads for half a season to help you get to the playoffs.

[Griffey012]

In the spirit of spring training optimism, let's say the Reds are doing pretty well at the deadline, and not the typical Reds' "hanging around .500" definition of success, but has a good chance at a playoff spot. Do you still deal Harang and Arroyo? Both have team options for 2011, so we have some flexibility.

If they are pitching really well, are you inclined to hang on to them because Reds winning seasons are so hard to come by? Or do you unload them when their value is high, since neither appear to figure into the rotation long-term?

FYI, here is the contract info:

Harang:

# 10:$12.5M,
# 11:$12.75M ($2M buyout)
# 2011 option increases to $13M with 210 IP in 2010
# if traded, 2011 option becomes mutual option at $14M ($2.5M buyout)

Arroyo:

# 10:$11M
# 11:$11M club option ($2M buyout)
# 2011 option may increase to $13M based on IP

Absolutely not, if they are both pitching well and we are in the playoff hunt they are performing exactly how we signed them to perform. And most likely they will both stick around for 2011, which wouldn't be a bad thing for us and their value would likely be just as high in the offseason if we wanted to trade one.

[Red in Atl]

I would rather discuss the impending Coco Cordero trade. That's the guy that could go at the trade deadline, even if the Reds are in the playoff hunt.

Assuming a few things; such as Massett/Burton stepping up and being ready to take over the closers role, with some help from Rhodes if needed. And if the rest of the bullpen, that seems to be rich with young talent, shines.

The only reason to do this of course is to shed payrole for 2011 at a time when you could actually do it. Harang and Arroyo aren't going anywhere unless they stink up the joint.

[nemesis]

I would rather discuss the impending Coco Cordero trade. That's the guy that could go at the trade deadline, even if the Reds are in the playoff hunt.

Assuming a few things; such as Massett/Burton stepping up and being ready to take over the closers role, with some help from Rhodes if needed. And if the rest of the bullpen, that seems to be rich with young talent, shines.

The only reason to do this of course is to shed payrole for 2011 at a time when you could actually do it. Harang and Arroyo aren't going anywhere unless they stink up the joint.

I think the development of Del Rosario, Ondrusek and Viola plus Bray's recovery are the most important things to dealing CoCo. We need someone to be able to slide into that 6th 7th inning role to slide Burton or Fisher to the 8th inning role and a viable replacement for Rhodes or Herrera if one of the two go down or become ineffective.

Say a swap to the Yankees of Alonso, CoCo, Arroyo and Mesorasco at the deadline for Cash, Montero and DJ Mitchell?

[jredmo2]

Not sure how this would affect the Harang/Arroyo timetable, but I believe in 2011 Votto, Cueto and Volquez become arbitration eligible. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe that means we'll probably offer them contracts?

[nemesis]

Not sure how this would affect the Harang/Arroyo timetable, but I believe in 2011 Votto, Cueto and Volquez become arbitration eligible. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe that means we'll probably offer them contracts?

Correct. Long term contracts I would hope. Something that would buy out the arbitration years and a year or two beyond with mutual options...

[OGB]

I couldn't comment on trading one or both of them until I saw how well the whole starting staff plus AAA staff are doing at the time. I kind of agree with those that feel having a team with legit mid/late July success is the wrong team to mess with the makeup of. Besides, if the Reds keep playing their cards right, they seem set up to be competitive well into the future, regardless of whether they "get anything" for Arroyo and Harang beyond this season.

That said, I wonder how people feel about the prospect of unloading young offensive talent at the deadline to acquire a veteran or two to help the team? Obviously it depends on what player/position, but I think the Reds could be looking at a wealth of OF/SS talent and be in a good position to unload some.

Most people are projecting the Reds OF to be Dickerson, Stubbs, Bruce, Balentien, and Gomes. It will still be several years before 4 of them become free agents and Gomes (I believe) has a team option for 2011. On the minor league horizon, the Reds have Chris Heisey, Juan Francisco (a likely LF rather than 3b), Danny Dorn, Todd Frazier (a possible corner OF) and Yonder Alonso (whose emergence could mean Votto to LF). Many people view Heisey, Alonso, and Frazier as legitimate future major leaguers who could be ready in 2010 and with Francisco's tools and relatively young age, he'd be an attractive piece in a deal
You also have a lot of very tradeable OF who are further away from the bigs in Duran, Rodriguez, Wiley, etc.
There is a similar wealth of depth at SS, although it isn't organizational, only minor league depth. Its harder to make a case for the Reds trading any of Valaika, Cozart, Hamilton, Valor, Gregorious, Puckett, or Rojas because the Reds big league SS situation isn't clear beyond 2010. Still, one would think 1 or 2 of these guys could be a component in a July deal to improve the 2010 Reds.