2010 - Gonelong's 9th annual Season Ws prediction thread

[mound_patrol]

Ok, it's time for Gonelong's 9th annual Reds Win prediction thread. The rules are simple:

1. Give a number of Ws you project.
2. Make the prediction as honestly as you can. It's a prediction, not a hope.
3. Feel free to wait for opening day to make your prediction.

This is the Sundeck's opportunity to show the ORG we know our Reds better then they do.

I'll start it off by guessing the Reds will win 85 games.

[Kingspoint]

I'll go. I don't think there will be any major additions to the club between now and the season opener. If there is, I'll change my prediction.

Don't know what the pythagorean is for this season, but I have a feeling I'll be about 7 games above it.

I'm going for a record of 86-76.

86 Wins

[davereds24]

82

[gilpdawg]

84

[double21d]

87 wins for a team that should be healthier and more experienced. However, if this team doesn't figure out a way to score runs...it won't happen and we'll see a repeat of years past.

[swaisuc]

82 wins... The improvements have to be worth 4 additional wins to me. The hitting still isn't good enough to be serious contenders though.

[tbball10]

90

[OesterPoster]

84 wins. Still too many "ifs" to obtain a higher number.

[bounty37h]

I think the 83 range is safe, better team then last year, but still have to see what the offense can do to put runs onthe board.

[jfleur87]

Why not....I'll go with 88.

[jredmo2]

91 wins and the wild card.

Chapman NL rookie of the year.

Votto and Bruce both top ten in MVP votes.

Dogs and cats sleeping together.

Mass hysteria.

[Jefferson24]

83 wins

[Jack Burton]

79

[tobttr]

80. I really want to post a higher number, but I can't muster up enough confidence that Bruce AND Harang AND Cabrera will have bounce-back years. AND that Bailey has it figured out AND that Stubbs is for real AND that Rolen will stay healthy AND that Gomes will have another stellar year.
I hope I will be proven wrong, but as of right now, my optimism is much more guarded than that of most of the posters here.

[Griffey012]

Lot of potential in this club but once again way too man "ifs"

81-81

[ochoa30]

87

[shredda2000]

84 wins

[topcat31]

84 wins

[texasdave]

If Brandon Phillips is batting cleanup, how can a team expect to win more than 82? This is not a knock on BP, who has value as a player, but he would never bat 4th on a quality team.

82 (LXXXII for you Roman History aficionados) (Ocho Dos for you Bengal fans)

[DannyB]

89
no way they win 90;)

[Kingspoint]

From ORG 1st post:

Old Red Guard
YR RZ Act Ptgh Delta
-- -- ---- ---- -----
09 79.0, 78, 76 (+ 1.0)
08 81.6, 74, 72 (+ 7.6)
07 81.4, 72, 75 (+ 9.2)
06 76.7, 80, 76 (- 3.3)
05 84.7, 73, 75 (+ 11.7)
04 76.8, 76, 67 (+ 0.8)
03 87.9, 69, 63 (+ 18.9)
02 79.7, 75, 75 (+ 4.7)

Sundeck
YR RZ Act Ptgh Delta
-- -- ---- ---- -----
09 82.7, 78, 76 (+4.7)
08 85.1, 74, 72 (+11.1)

Not surprising that the whole of Redszone is overly optimistic and that the SunDeck is even more optimistic than the ORG. I am surprised that it was by a lot so many times. Only 3 times within 3.3 runs, while 5 times way overly optimistic.

I do like the trend of both the SunDeck and the ORG. Better each of the last 3 years for the ORG, while nailing it last season, and much improvement the second season for the SunDeck.

Looking roughly at the first round of predictions, it's looking like the concensus is going to be somewhere around 80-81 wins, though the SunDeck looks to be closer to 84 while the ORG looks to be closer to 79. Wouldn't be surprised if the 80-number wasn't within three of the pythagorean, also.

[RedsATOfreak]

83 wins baby....

[Knightro28]

I'm going with 85. Pray our pitching depth and Walt's "direction" counts for something.

[Kingspoint]

I thought that "Rolen Veteran Leadership" was going to get us to 90+ wins?

[OGB]

88 wins, and thats mainly because they play in the NL Central. I think they'll do very well this year against the Cubs, Brewers, Pirates, and Astros (when Oswalt isn't pitchin.) .500 or better against the Cards would be a nice bonus.

[stripedwarrior]

They break the losing streak, albeit barely.

82

[markymark69]

I think they are truly a year away from something special. Give Me 84 wins this year, just missing the wild card.

[Ghosts of 1990]

I think we'll go 83-79 and it will feel like about 95 wins to us after what we're used to witnessing.

[Newport Red]

85 and 77. Close but still on the outside looking in.

[sivman17]

88-74

[Kingspoint]

Good year to be optimistic.

[Kingspoint]

91 wins

We have a winner!

[redsrolen]

i thought that "rolen veteran leadership" was going to get us to 90+ wins?

you thought right!!!!:

[Kingspoint]

you thought right!!!!:

Rolen had an outstanding year.