2010 - Gonelong's 9th annual Season Ws prediction thread .

[gonelong]

Ok, time for Gonelong's 9th annual Reds Win prediction thread. As always, the request is pretty simple.

1. Give a number of Ws you project.
2. Make the prediction as honestly as you can. It's a prediction, not a hope.
3. Feel free to wait for opening day to make your prediction.

When I return from opening day I'll compute the average guestimate. (One again, my brother was able to wrangle me a ticket. Thanks bro!)

Hopefully the Sundeck will once again organize a thread and take up a friendly challenge from the ORG. Last year the Sundeck really put the pressure on, though the ORG ended up ever so slightly closer to the final number of Ws.

My prediction for the Reds is that they will win 81 games ... oh so tantalizing close to .500.

It has been some time since I felt the Reds had a decent chance to materially out-pace my prediction, but I feel like this is one of those years. Hopefully they will get out of the gate quickly and gain some momentum.

Go Reds!

GL



Old Red Guard
YR RZ Act Ptgh Delta
-- -- ---- ---- -----
09 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=74750) 79.0, 78, 76 (+ 1.0)
08 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=66421) 81.6, 74, 72 (+ 7.6)
07 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=55913) 81.4, 72, 75 (+ 9.2)
06 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=44503) 76.7, 80, 76 (- 3.3)
05 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=33108) 84.7, 73, 75 (+ 11.7)
04 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=21619) 76.8, 76, 67 (+ 0.8)
03 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9414) 87.9, 69, 63 (+ 18.9)
02 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4202) 79.7, 75, 75 (+ 4.7)

Sundeck
YR RZ Act Ptgh Delta
-- -- ---- ---- -----
09 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=74617) 82.7, 78, 76 (+4.7)
08 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1591907&postcount=67) 85.1, 74, 72 (+11.1)

[BoydsOfSummer]

83 wins

[OnBaseMachine]

87 wins.

I love this thread. Thanks GL!

[RedsManRick]

82 wins

[WebScorpion]

92 Big Red Wins!!

[Hoosier Red]

87 wins.

[Reds/Flyers Fan]

79 wins

[Az Red]

90 !

[reds1869]

89

[reds44]

83 wins.

[Spring~Fields]

2009 78 84 .481
2008 74 88 .457
2007 72 90 .444
Tot. 224/3 = 75 wins

Prediction 75 wins 87 losses win pct .463

[mbgrayson]

83 wins.

[kaldaniels]

84 Wins. And I'm calling a no-no from somewhere on the staff.

[kbrake]

88

[toledodan]

92 wins! i'm a homer but i like the rotation and how we played at the end of last season with rolen.

[pahster]

82 wins.

[Ga_Red]

93 wins!

[Caveat Emperor]

76 wins.

[BearcatShane]

92 wins.

[Guacarock]

83 wins

[KronoRed]

76

[Bumstead]

85 wins.

[MWM]

75 wins

[Captain Hook]

86 wins.

I'm not sure if that gets us to the post season but we'll at least be in the hunt.

[SirFelixCat]

82 and feel like it's realistic.

[TheNext44]

84 Wins

[Ravenlord]

81 wins.

[AtomicDumpling]

80 wins.

[MrCinatit]

77 wins.

[Tom Servo]

Last year I said 79 and they fell just short.

So I'll say 83 this year in the hope that they manage to fall just short at worst.

[New Fever]

96 wins

[Topcat]

84 wins if the team hits well i could see stretching that to 86 wins.

[Ron Madden]

I'm afraid this club will struggle to score runs.

I'm not real confident in the pitching staff or field management.

I'll say 79 wins......Hope I'm wrong. This doesn't mean I don't want'em to win 162.

[Playadlc]

79 wins.

[thatcoolguy_22]

84 wins

[mth123]

76 Wins. The middle of the order against RHP is the team's achilles heal. If a bat or 2 steps up they could go a lot higher. The rest of the team is pretty solid.

[OUReds]

80 wins

[membengal]

77 wins. Offense an issue, won't get the full young talent into the rotation until the all-star break. Sets the table for next season.

Hope I'm wrong and this comes together this year, but I don't see it.

[RollyInRaleigh]

86 wins

[edabbs44]

80

[hebroncougar]

78 wins

[RFS62]

84 wins

[rdiersin]

78 wins. The offense hopefully will do more and this will be too low.

[RedFanAlways1966]

75 wins.

[Reds Fanatic]

84 wins

[LoganBuck]

84 wins

[oneupper]

78 Wins

The offense is still really bad.

[Redsfan320]

85

320

[Always Red]

80 wins

[Edskin]

80

[Redhook]

83 wins.

[flyer85]

78 wins

[Heath]

It's hard to score runs when you can't create offense.

82 wins

[UKFlounder]

77 wins

[IowaRed]

73-89

[_Sir_Charles_]

91 wins

And I think I'm undershooting here. This team is going to surprise the heck out of some people IMO.

[lollipopcurve]

I have my doubts.

80-82

[bucksfan2]

82

[nate]

I'll keep saying 81 until they do it.

[forfreelin04]

79 wins and a boat load of injuries that are used as excuses to keep the majority of the players next year.

Hate to be a Debbie Downer!!

[vaticanplum]

I've been waiting for this thread. That's...sad, right?

80 wins

[Chip R]

I'll say 76.

[Redsfaithful]

82 wins

[TheBurn]

88 wins

[NJReds]

84 wins

[westofyou]

15.74% of the Reds seasons have had better than 90 wins or better, between 80 and 89 wins occurred 23.6% times.

Regrettably they have less than 70 wins 29% of their seasons, with the current offense they'll end up in the largest percentage bucket not mentioned, the 70-79 win column.

I'll say 79 wins

[Tommyjohn25]

89 wins.

[Cyclone792]

83 wins.

Let it be known that I believe this is the first time that I've predicted the Reds to finish above .500 in one of GLs threads.

Given that this is a younger team, I'm expecting more volatility this year than in previous years. Younger players have more potential to take off and outperform, but they also have more potential to disappoint and underperform. With all that, it really wouldn't shock me to see this team win as many as 90 games, and it also wouldn't shock me to see this team only put up 75 wins. This is a much wider range than I normally see in previous years; you can typically narrow the range down to within a half dozen games in most other years.

Offense and an inability to get on base will still likely be an issue, but should hopefully be less of an issue this year than last season (that's what removing a Willy T sized black hole can do for you). The young pitching staff, specifically the rotation itself, is where most of the volatility exists (I'm looking at you both, Johnny Cueto and Homer Bailey).

[Edd Roush]

I'll go with 84.

[Strikes Out Looking]

87 wins.

I think there are enough upgrades in the offense (some addition by subtraction), Harang will win more than 6, and the fact that I think the NL Central is fairly week to get the Reds 9 more victories than last year.

[Homer Bailey]

77 wins.

[TRF]

97 wins as the unproven rotation takes the NL by storm.

Hope springs eternal, the last week of March.

[dfs]

I have drunk the cool aid and it's 85 wins for this team.

[Falls City Beer]

79 wins. This team is marginally better defensively, marginally better offensively, but probably about the same pitching-wise (especially if Chapman stays in the minors for a substantial part of the year).

So, on balance, any improvements this team may have gained fall within the margin of luck/error record-wise.

[Raisor]

78 wins

[11larkin11]

86 wins.

[Puffy]

81

[Plus Plus]

86-76

[LincolnparkRed]

83-79 with Harang back to 10 wins (10-15) but 10 wins

[pedro]

85-77

[Roy Tucker]

94 wins.

time for the karma bank to pay interest.

[Eric_the_Red]

83 wins.

[redsmetz]

I'm going to go with 87 wins also.

[CarolinaRedleg]

85 wins.

[Scrap Irony]

83 wins. And I think that's conservative, as:

Better offense
10 Rolen > 09 EdE et al.
10 Stubbs > 09 Taveras
10 Cabrera > 09 Janish, AGon
10 Bruce > 09 Bruce
10 Phillips = 09 Phillips
10 Hernandez/ Hanigan = 09 Hernandez/ Hanigan
10 Gomes, Dickerson < 09 Gomes, Dickerson
10 Votto < 09 Votto

Better defense
10 Rolen > 09 EdE et al.
10 Stubbs > 09 Taveras
10 Gomes, Dickerson > 09 Gomes, Dickerson
10 Bruce = 09 Bruce
10 Phillips = 09 Phillips
10 Votto =09 Votto
10 Hernandez/ Hanigan = 09 Hernandez/ Hanigan
10 Cabrera < 09 Janish, AGon

Better starting staff
10 Cueto > 09 Cueto
10 Bailey > 09 Bailey
10 Chapman/ Leake/ Wood > 09 Owings/ Lehr/ Maloney/ Wells
10 Arroyo = 09 Arroyo
10 Harang = 09 Harang

If they stay healthy, this team has a chance. If not, they don't. Pretty simple.

[RichRed]

84 wins.

[Kc61]

80 wins. The pitching gives me concerns. I'm comfortable with Arroyo and Bailey right now. I'm not as comfortable with Harang, Cueto, and Wood. I also think the bullpen could slide back.

The offense should be a little better, the defense solid again.

If the starting pitching holds up better than I expect, then the team could contend in the division. Hope it does.

I'm very positive on the organization over the next several years, just skeptical about 2010.

[Mario-Rijo]

Well I guessed 78 last year and hit it on the head however relative health would have resulted in 2-3 more wins at least i'm guessing. So with that in mind and some general optimism about the progression of the unit as a whole I am gonna go with 85 wins. This what my mind says, my gut says somewhere in the 87-88 range. But I'll stick with 85.

[vaticanplum]

Wow, I thought I was being optimistic with 80.

If this team wins, say, 84 games, it will still be a mediocre team with no chance at the playoffs. But it will be the first winning season in a decade and the team will use it as a reason to keep Baker, and the cycle of mediocrity will continue. So I am HOPING for 94 or 74 and really not much in between.

God, I have been a fan of this team too long.

[IslandRed]

86 wins.

[jmcclain19]

80 wins - 730 RS.

[George Anderson]

82 wins

The losing streak stops at 9.

[Razor Shines]

88

[TRF]

83 wins. And I think that's conservative, as:

Better offense
10 Rolen > 09 EdE et al.
10 Stubbs > 09 Taveras
10 Cabrera > 09 Janish, AGon
10 Bruce > 09 Bruce
10 Phillips = 09 Phillips
10 Hernandez/ Hanigan = 09 Hernandez/ Hanigan
10 Gomes, Dickerson < 09 Gomes, Dickerson
10 Votto < 09 Votto

Better defense
10 Rolen > 09 EdE et al.
10 Stubbs > 09 Taveras
10 Gomes, Dickerson > 09 Gomes, Dickerson
10 Bruce = 09 Bruce
10 Phillips = 09 Phillips
10 Votto =09 Votto
10 Hernandez/ Hanigan = 09 Hernandez/ Hanigan
10 Cabrera < 09 Janish, AGon

Better starting staff
10 Cueto > 09 Cueto
10 Bailey > 09 Bailey
10 Chapman/ Leake/ Wood > 09 Owings/ Lehr/ Maloney/ Wells
10 Arroyo = 09 Arroyo
10 Harang = 09 Harang

If they stay healthy, this team has a chance. If not, they don't. Pretty simple.

So the LF offense is worse this year, but the D is better. And its the same two guys. And Rolen will be better offensively than EE et al, even though Rolen was a big part of et al. In fact he played in only 4 fewer games than EE. It should have read Rosales et al as Rosales led the reds in games played at 3B last year.


just sayin'.

[dougdirt]

84 wins. +30 runs in the RS/RA columns.

[Ltlabner]

75 wins

[NC Reds]

82-80.

[Will M]

The overall concensus seems to be in the mid to high 80s. I agree with this. there is no doubt that on paper this team is the most talented we have had in a while. we also get to play a lot of games against our weak NL central foes. I am going to guess 86-76. if i had to take an over/under on 86 i would take the over. the Reds do have a lot of young guys with All Star potential. if several of them bust out we could slip into the playoffs.

[Spring~Fields]

84 wins. +30 runs in the RS/RA columns.

I want to make sure that I understand this correctly. :)

When you say 30+ runs are you saying that the Reds will score 30 more runs and allow 30 more runs than they did last year. 2009 RS 673 +30 = 703 RS 2010 and 2009 RA 723 +30 = 753 RA

Is that what you mean or did I misunderstand?

[Scrap Irony]

So the LF offense is worse this year, but the D is better. And its the same two guys. And Rolen will be better offensively than EE et al, even though Rolen was a big part of et al. In fact he played in only 4 fewer games than EE. It should have read Rosales et al as Rosales led the reds in games played at 3B last year.


just sayin'.

Dickerson has had an entire season and off-season to improve at a position he only had passing playing time at his entire minor league career. He struggled early last season; I don't expect him to struggle again early this season. Gomes, while still a below average player, has lost weight and should be able to range further into the gaps and make plays. Add to that Stubbs' remarkable range in CF (meaning the LFers can concentrate and shade a step or two toward the line, thereby cutting doubles to singles, or, even better, outs) and it all adds up to better D, despite the fact that the same players are responsible for the majority of the playing time.

EdE was the erstwhile starter last season and his struggles were a HUGE part of the 3B black hole offensively. That's why he goes first. He was being counted on and failed miserably. Rosales' numbers certainly did nothing to help the Reds either. Either way, it's a semantic argument. Suffice it to say, Rolen for an entire season should mean a fairly large uptick in production from 09.

Just sayin'.

[Scrap Irony]

I want to make sure that I understand this correctly. :)

When you say 30+ runs are you saying that the Reds will score 30 more runs and allow 30 more runs than they did last year. 2009 RS 673 +30 = 703 RS 2010 and 2009 RA 723 +30 = 753 RA

Is that what you mean or did I misunderstand?

He's saying the Reds will give up 30 less runs than they score this season.

[TheNext44]

I think a more fun game would be predicting what number each poster would predict. To be honest, this year, I would be doing much worse than I expected. Makes this thread even more interesting. :)

[pedro]

I'm not overly optimistic about this team but I have a hard time believing they'll do WORSE than last ear.

[oneupper]

I'm not overly optimistic about this team but I have a hard time believing they'll do WORSE than last ear.

I agree with that. The problem is assessing how bad exactly was that 2009 team. Because although the Reds came up with 78 wins, they were 27-13 over the last 40, many of which were meaningless for both sides.
And how different was that team of the last quarter of the season (starring Stubbs and Bailey) from the 2010 team?

Can't wait to start the real games.

[Mario-Rijo]

I agree with that. The problem is assessing how bad exactly was that 2009 team. Because although the Reds came up with 78 wins, they were 27-13 over the last 40, many of which were meaningless for both sides.
And how different was that team of the last quarter of the season (starring Stubbs and Bailey) from the 2010 team?

Can't wait to start the real games.

Not to mention a whole ton of other variables. How different are the teams we are playing this season than last? We play an uneven schedule inside the division so do we play the Cubs more and the Pirates less this year (3 game difference)? And so on.

2009
13-5 vs. Pittsburgh (18 games)
12-4 vs. Houston (16 games)
8-8 vs. St. Louis (16 games)
8-7 vs. Milwaukee (15 games)
5-10 vs Chicago (15 games)

46-34 vs. NL Central 12 games over .500

For the rest of the breakdown....
LINK (http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CIN/2009-schedule-scores.shtml)

[Degenerate39]

87 wins

[vaticanplum]

I forgot about something. I up my prediction to a whopping 83 if volquez comes back healthy when he's supposed to. I really have a lot of faith in that guy even though I keep forgetting about him.

[Spring~Fields]

He's saying the Reds will give up 30 less runs than they score this season.

Really? Doug is saying that the Reds will have a DIFF of +30 ? That takes a lot of courage. :)

[Joseph]

84 Wins

[dougdirt]

Really? Doug is saying that the Reds will have a DIFF of +30 ? That takes a lot of courage. :)

That is what I am saying. It doesn't take much courage, by the records most predict, its where a lot of people are predicting the Reds to fall.

[westofyou]

Let's debate the predictions after the season and keep this thread as a straight prediction thread (at least for the sake of the thread creators goal)

[Spring~Fields]

That is what I am saying. It doesn't take much courage, by the records most predict, its where a lot of people are predicting the Reds to fall.

That's great. I was just wondering because I see some are still picking the Reds to finish fourth. The other teams, St. Louis, Milwuakee, and Chicago must really be going to have a fantastic run DIFF.

[marcshoe]

88 wins

[4256 Hits]

Lots wearing rose colored glasses.

I say 72 wins with Dusty getting fired in July.

[REDblooded]

84 wins...

And Jay Bruce hits 34 HR's

[MississippiRed]

85 wins, wild card, then a little run with the great starting pitching of Volquez and Chapman and Homer and Cueto!

[JaxRed]

92 Wins. Have a chance to be best team in NL if all the best case scenarios pan out. (Bruce, Votto, Bailey, Harang, Stubbs). No Willie Tavarez-like black holes in lineup.

Most likely scenario to drag them down: Harang and Rolen struggle, but remain fixtures because that's how Dusty shows loyalty to vets.

[VR]

Pitching and defense wins.....and young studs with lumber.

96

:cool: <<------rose colored perhaps :beerme:

[GAC]

80 wins

[redsfan30]

83.

[Screwball]

Lots wearing rose colored glasses.

I say 72 wins with Dusty getting fired in July.

And some are wearing Pirate colored glasses.

87 wins.

[camisadelgolf]

86 wins

[yab1112]

87 wins

[deltachi8]

78 wins

[GoReds]

88 wins.

Reds threaten most of the summer but fade in the end.

[Slyder]

79 wins, I dont think the offense will be there enough for a young pitching staff and will sink many close games. I think Duhhhsty is fired by July also.

[WVRedsFan]

I'll go first.

83-79

I'm being conservative here, which is unlike me, but I think they are on the right track but will fade come September. But a lot better than the last 14 years.

[cumberlandreds]

I'll predict 84 wins. I really think they have the pitching to have a winning season. But it may be just a little young for enough wins to qualify for the playoffs.

[Eric_the_Red]

79 wins, I dont think the offense will be there enough for a young pitching staff and will sink many close games. I too hope Duhhhsty is fired by July.

You don't hope the Reds win 96 games and win the Central? Interesting.

[Slyder]

You don't hope the Reds win 96 games and win the Central? Interesting.

Of course I'd love to be wrong. It may just be the frustration of the past decade. But this FO and management staff has yet to prove that they know how to put the team in that position.

[top6]

72-90

[paintmered]

80 wins

[WMR]

84.

They'll improve just enough for them to justify hanging onto the Dusty. Still holding out hope he is somehow axed or his contract is not renewed because I'm very optimistic about the Reds overall with the talent both on the roster and the talent just down the pike. Need some new ideas in the clubhouse.

[Captain Hook]

84.

They'll improve just enough for them to justify hanging onto the Dusty. Still holding out hope he is somehow axed or his contract is not renewed because I'm very optimistic about the Reds overall with the talent both on the roster and the talent just down the pike. Need some new ideas in the clubhouse.

For best the best case scenario see the 2009 Colorado Rockies.:thumbup:

[Vada Pinson Fan]

I would love to say the Reds will finish the 2010 season at 95-67 but the offense still scares me or rather the lack of it overall does and particulary/primarily the starting 8 when runners are in scoring position with less than 2 out. Fourteenth or Fifteenth in BA last year in the NL and what was done to correct that? Hopefully better season's all around by everyone will get this team over .500 and to the record I predict of 86-76 and certainly in the hunt for a wildcard but falls just short.
Major keys needed to a winning season are:
Jay Bruce, Brandon Phillips, Aaron Harang and Johnny Cueto.

86-76.
3rd place; 1 game behind 2nd place Cubs and 8 games back of 1st place Cardinals.

[WrongVerb]

I see issues with Harang, growing pains with the kids, but Bailey and Cueto take over and give 17-18 wins each. Probably looking at an 88 win season, finishing just out of the wild card.

[red-in-la]

98 wins

The line up will generate much more power than most people expect. Votto, Phillips and Bruce will race toward 30 HR's each. I expect Dickerson/Stubbs to generate 20 plus and Gomes/Balentin to generate 30 plus.

I think Harang will have a good year with Bailey having a break out year. I also expect Chapman to go 14-2 once he arrives in mid-May.

Cordero saves 40 and Masset gets 10 or so to boot.

[cincinnati chili]

86 wins

[fearofpopvol1]

85 wins

[redsfandan]

85 wins
I say 85 wins as well.

Obviously, the defense will be better. But the offense and defense... Well, they should be better. But that will depend alot on young guys and iffy vets. I doubt they'll be in the playoff chase after August. I'd love it if I was wrong about that though. Continued improvement in the organization overall is what I want. So, I'll be paying alot more attention to the AAA team than I have in the past. And, I'll be looking forward to the end of the "lost decade" after nine years.

[wheels]

I'm going with 83. A solid five game improvement over last year

Next year they make a bigger jump.

[M2]

77

[BRM]

79 wins

[Red in Chicago]

i got last year's total right...this year, i'm going with 80...

[sonny]

83 Wins

[BuckeyeRedleg]

This is the most optimistic I've felt about this team and organization in many years. Probably since April of 2000. I think the Reds can actually compete for the division if the Cards stumble. If the Cards don't stumble, they will compete for the wildcard with the Phils (Atlanta is my choice in the East).

I think realistically this is an 82 or 83 win team, but they'll get a little lucky and play above their pythag by a few.

86-76.....and trending up. 90+ for 2011 and beyond.

[RED VAN HOT]

88 wins.

1. Starting with a stronger roster, no defensive weaknesses, better offensive potential.
2. Healthy to start the season with plenty of backup at Louisville. When the injuries do come, and they always do, the team won't miss a beat.

[Ron Madden]

88 wins.

1. Starting with a stronger roster, no defensive weaknesses, better offensive potential. 2. Healthy to start the season with plenty of backup at Louisville. When the injuries do come, and they always do, the team won't miss a beat.

It's the bolded part that worries me.

[alloverjr]

77 Wins. Not enough offense to prop up a very young but good rotation for an entire year. I think they get average or worse by position production from everyone not on the right side of the field. Next year I think is a different story.

[Caseyfan21]

87 wins, I'm being a little optimistic in my heart but I usually am this time of year. Realistically I think they are about a .500 team.

[RedsBaron]

86-76
I can't bring myself to predict a losing season for the Reds at this time of year. IIRC this makes at least the ninth straight year I've predicted a non-losing record for the Reds; some year I am going to be right! ;)

[oregonred]

85 wins

[Danny Serafini]

84

[boognish]

79-83

[Jpup]

82-80

[klw]

There seems to be a huge potential range of results for the team this year. Anywhere from 60 to 100 wins could be argued. The high end is if the Reds start well, get good fan support, management is willing to pick up some salary at the break. Strong finish.
The low end involves a slow start, Rolen gets hurt, team gets very young, Harang and Arroyo struggle or get hurt, rest of starters mediocre. Team dumps salary at the deadline by trading Phillips (replacing with Frazier) to be able to move one of the higher cost pitchers. Limp home.

I will settle on 87-75.

[dunner13]

86 wins and a very exciting year for reds fans!

[Johnny Footstool]

I'm gonna go for it -- 92 wins and the Central crown.