Leadoff Discussion - Sun Deck Version

[swaisuc]

I thought maybe I'd start a thread to give our own ideas for leadoff.

One thing that continues to be thrown out there is the idea of leading off Ryan Hannigan. I personally do not like this strategy at all. I tend to prefer when the lineup and players' roles on a team are as consistent as is reasonably possible. In order to make Ryan Hannigan your leadoff hitter, you'd either have to expect that he will play 80% or more of the games, or be OK with very different lineups from night to night depending on if he is playing. Neither of those appeal to me.

Center field as leadoff has a similar problem. Right now, you'd either be leading off Stubbs who hasn't been getting on base or Heisey who (even if he hits) will be in and out of the lineup.

Despite not having a great option in house, I still think Orlando Cabrera is our best option. He seems to do a great job of adjusting to different situations and I think if he knew his job was to leadoff and get on base he would improve his OBP. Secondly, he works deep into counts to make the pitcher work and show what he has to the rest of the lineup. Also, he plays every day (for better or worse) so we can get some stability at the top of the lineup. I personally think he is our 2nd best baserunner behind Stubbs.

My favorite lineup would be this...
Ocabrera
JVotto
BPhillips
Rolen
Bruce
Hannigan
Gomes
Stubbs
P

However, I do realize that flipping Phillips and Votto probably makes it more realistic for something Dusty would actually do. With this lineup, 1-5 are the same for 85% or more of the games and everyone can settle into their roles on the team.

Thoughts from the Sun Deck?

[mattfeet]

While I agree with oCab being a decent leadoff, I for one do not like the idea of putting our top RBI guy in a position where he is less likely to get runs in.

-matt

[Cant Touch This]

When Leake is pitching, it should be this.

1 - Mike Leake (P)
2 - Joey Votto (1B)
3 - Brandon Phillips (2B)
4 - Scott Rolen (3B)
5 - Jay Bruce (RF)
6 - Orlando Cabrera (SS)
7 - Gomes/Nix (LF)
8 - Hanigan/Hernandez (C)
9 - Drew Stubbs (CF)

Leake gives a quality AB damn near every time. I bet he could swipe himself a base, too...!

I can see the argument for OCab hitting leadoff, but he's proven to be a decent RBI guy this year so I'd rather see him deeper in the lineup. I don't love Votto in the 2 hole other than being left handed. I could easily support switching Phillips and Votto.

[ian_madden]

I don't have an answer for the leadoff question but I for 1 do like batting votto 2nd, Phillips 3rd, Rolen 4th, bruce 5th. I think the more ab Votto has, the better.

I guess for now we go with Ocab leadoff. But I was really liking the idea of him batting 7th.

My "short term fix" lineup
OCab ss
Votto 1st
BP 2nd
Rolen 3rd
Bruce RF
Gomes/Nix LF
Hanigan/Hernandez C
Stubbs CF
Pitcher

With stubbs batting 8th, maybe he will see a walk or 2.

[sivman17]

I don't have an answer for the leadoff question but I for 1 do like batting votto 2nd, Phillips 3rd, Rolen 4th, bruce 5th. I think the more ab Votto has, the better.

I guess for now we go with Ocab leadoff. But I was really liking the idea of him batting 7th.

My "short term fix" lineup
OCab ss
Votto 1st
BP 2nd
Rolen 3rd
Bruce RF
Gomes/Nix LF
Hanigan/Hernandez C
Stubbs CF
Pitcher

With stubbs batting 8th, maybe he will see a walk or 2.


I don't think I would move Votto to 2nd in the lineup. If you do that then there's only one guy in front of him that has a chance to get on base. Cabrera is a good RBI guy but not the greatest at getting on base. If you move Votto to 2nd, then he has the pitcher and OCab in front of him after the 1st inning and chances are no one is on base. That's precisely what you don't want to do.

As far as leadoff, I don't really know what they should do. I don't see Cabrera as that guy. Stubbs and Dickerson are not the right guys. I would rather see Hanigan batting 2nd than leadoff. So.. I don't really have an answer for that. All I know is I'm getting sick and tired of seeing Stubbs strike out in a third of his ABs.

[sivman17]

Actually, after thinking about I think B Phil would be a good leadoff guy. My lineup would be:

Phillips 4
Hanigan 2
Votto 3
Rolen 5
Bruce 9
Cabrera 6
Stubbs 8
Gomes 7
Pitcher 1

[swaisuc]

I don't think I would move Votto to 2nd in the lineup. If you do that then there's only one guy in front of him that has a chance to get on base. Cabrera is a good RBI guy but not the greatest at getting on base. If you move Votto to 2nd, then he has the pitcher and OCab in front of him after the 1st inning and chances are no one is on base. That's precisely what you don't want to do.

As far as leadoff, I don't really know what they should do. I don't see Cabrera as that guy. Stubbs and Dickerson are not the right guys. I would rather see Hanigan batting 2nd than leadoff. So.. I don't really have an answer for that. All I know is I'm getting sick and tired of seeing Stubbs strike out in a third of his ABs.

Probably for a different thread, but I would rather Votto bat 4th then. I can't imagine any scenerio is worse than Votto constantly batting with 2 outs and nobody on. Remember that besides being our best power bat, Votto is easily our best OBP guy as well. His OBP needs to be hidden from the 2 out, nobody on scenerio. As you point out, 2nd may not do that very well after the 1st. Maybe 4th does.

[gilpdawg]

While I agree with oCab being a decent leadoff, I for one do not like the idea of putting our top RBI guy in a position where he is less likely to get runs in.

-matt

Only reason Cab is our "Top RBI guy" is small sample size and the fact that he's followed Votto, Rolen and Bruce in the lineup. Not because he's good. He's not. Not at this point in his career.

[mattfeet]

Only reason Cab is our "Top RBI guy" is small sample size and the fact that he's followed Votto, Rolen and Bruce in the lineup. Not because he's good. He's not. Not at this point in his career.

And likewise for people wanting to bat Hanigan in the 2,3,4 hole...small sample size.

-Matt

[Vottomatic]

When Leake is pitching, it should be this.

1 - Mike Leake (P)
2 - Joey Votto (1B)
3 - Brandon Phillips (2B)
4 - Scott Rolen (3B)
5 - Jay Bruce (RF)
6 - Orlando Cabrera (SS)
7 - Gomes/Nix (LF)
8 - Hanigan/Hernandez (C)
9 - Drew Stubbs (CF)

Leake gives a quality AB damn near every time. I bet he could swipe himself a base, too...!

I can see the argument for OCab hitting leadoff, but he's proven to be a decent RBI guy this year so I'd rather see him deeper in the lineup. I don't love Votto in the 2 hole other than being left handed. I could easily support switching Phillips and Votto.

:beerme:

I got a good laugh out of that one.

[Vottomatic]

The serious truth is, the Reds have no tablesetters and haven't for a long, long time.

For a long, long time, we had no decent closer either, and finally we paid for one and got one, that people complain about paying all the time.

For a long, long time, our left side infield defense was terrible with EE and AGon, and atleast third base is improved with Rolen, not sure about OCab.

Now we have no tablesetters. BP probably has the ability to be similar to Ricky Henderson with his power and speed, but he may be too flighty to get to that point.

Not sure what the solution is. We could have had Damon, who is currently got an OBP over .400, but he was too pricey at $8M.

I guess we're stuck for now.

[RedLakerFan24]

Oralando Cabrera
Brandon Phillips
Joey Votto
Scott Rolen
Jay Bruce
LF: Aquire ONE
Drew Stubbs
Hernadez/Hanigan

[defender]

I am going to guess Jay Bruce. He has been hitting better of late, but overall, he has hit better with the bases empty. In fact, in 32 PA leading of an inning, he has an OBP of .375, 2 HR and an OPS over 1.000

[Trace's Daddy]

1 - Hanigan (C) Best OBP
2 - Votto (1B) 2nd Best OBP
3 - Bruce (RF)
4 - Rolen (3B)
5 - Phillips (2B)
6 - Janish (SS) Better D than Ocab + better stick than in '09
7 - Gomes/Nix (LF) The reds need a better option here
8 - Stubbs (CF) - Speed before the pitcher + more walks
9 - Pitcher - if Leake pitches, move him up to 7 maybe

[roby]

When Leake is pitching, it should be this.

1 - Mike Leake (P)
2 - Joey Votto (1B)
3 - Brandon Phillips (2B)
4 - Scott Rolen (3B)
5 - Jay Bruce (RF)
6 - Orlando Cabrera (SS)
7 - Gomes/Nix (LF)
8 - Hanigan/Hernandez (C)
9 - Drew Stubbs (CF)

Leake gives a quality AB damn near every time. I bet he could swipe himself a base, too...!

I can see the argument for OCab hitting leadoff, but he's proven to be a decent RBI guy this year so I'd rather see him deeper in the lineup. I don't love Votto in the 2 hole other than being left handed. I could easily support switching Phillips and Votto.

Isn't it sad when the college guy with NO minor league experience comes in with a better idea of what to do than many of our "veterans?"

[1990REDS]

And likewise for people wanting to bat Hanigan in the 2,3,4 hole...small sample size.

-Matt

Dont forget about janish.

[kfm]

Only reason Cab is our "Top RBI guy" is small sample size and the fact that he's followed Votto, Rolen and Bruce in the lineup. Not because he's good. He's not. Not at this point in his career.

OCAB drove in 77 runs last year. I guess he was lucky last year as well. How is the fact that he follows Votto, Rolen and Bruce make his RBI less meaningful. I guess he got lucky with the Walk Off winner yesterday.

[gilpdawg]

OCAB drove in 77 runs last year. I guess he was lucky last year as well. How is the fact that he follows Votto, Rolen and Bruce make his RBI less meaningful. I guess he got lucky with the Walk Off winner yesterday.
And the year before that, while posting almost the same exact slash numbers, he only had 57 RBI. Which proves my point that RBI fluctuate from year to year because it's highly luck based. Thanks for proving my point for me.

[Griffey012]

And the year before that, while posting almost the same exact slash numbers, he only had 57 RBI. Which proves my point that RBI fluctuate from year to year because it's highly luck based. Thanks for proving my point for me.

The only thing that doesn't fluctuate from year to year in baseball statistics is Adam Dunn's HR total.

Since OCab became a regular in 2000 with Montreal up until this season he has average 69.8 RBI's per season. And the year before his 57 he had 86 RBI's. And in 06 while posting nearly the exact same slash numbers he had 72 RBI's. So I guess you proved the point that RBI's fluctuate from year to year, not that OCab gets RBI's because he followed Votto, Bruce, and Rolen, or because he is "lucky." In fact, if you have paid attention to the Reds this season you would know that OCab has spent a majority of his time in the 2 hole in front of those guys and following the pitchers and lead-off batters getting on at a .220 clip.

15 of his 16 RBI's have come out of the 2-hole. IN FRONT of Votto, Phillips, Rolen, and Bruce.

[mikemo14]

I say give Heisey several games in a row leading off and see what happens. He was solid all thru the minors. Hopefully nobody is giving up on him after 6 at bats.

Someone mentioned earlier in the thread that the Reds could have had Jonny Damon this off season for only several million. This is true but for about 500,000 they could have had a leadoff hitter with the following stats

BA .339 2 HR 14RBI .390OBP 10 Steals

Any guesses?

Scott Podsednik

[gilpdawg]

The only thing that doesn't fluctuate from year to year in baseball statistics is Adam Dunn's HR total.

Since OCab became a regular in 2000 with Montreal up until this season he has average 69.8 RBI's per season. And the year before his 57 he had 86 RBI's. And in 06 while posting nearly the exact same slash numbers he had 72 RBI's. So I guess you proved the point that RBI's fluctuate from year to year, not that OCab gets RBI's because he followed Votto, Bruce, and Rolen, or because he is "lucky." In fact, if you have paid attention to the Reds this season you would know that OCab has spent a majority of his time in the 2 hole in front of those guys and following the pitchers and lead-off batters getting on at a .220 clip.

15 of his 16 RBI's have come out of the 2-hole. IN FRONT of Votto, Phillips, Rolen, and Bruce.
Yeah, I didn't actually think of that. My bad. :D But my point still stands that as far as this season goes, this is a statistical anomaly. A guy with a .668 OPS isn't going to be a big run producer going forward.

[kfm]

The only thing that doesn't fluctuate from year to year in baseball statistics is Adam Dunn's HR total.

Since OCab became a regular in 2000 with Montreal up until this season he has average 69.8 RBI's per season. And the year before his 57 he had 86 RBI's. And in 06 while posting nearly the exact same slash numbers he had 72 RBI's. So I guess you proved the point that RBI's fluctuate from year to year, not that OCab gets RBI's because he followed Votto, Bruce, and Rolen, or because he is "lucky." In fact, if you have paid attention to the Reds this season you would know that OCab has spent a majority of his time in the 2 hole in front of those guys and following the pitchers and lead-off batters getting on at a .220 clip.

15 of his 16 RBI's have come out of the 2-hole. IN FRONT of Votto, Phillips, Rolen, and Bruce.

Thank you for posting this so I didn't have to. I guess he is generally just a lucky guy and he had one year where the true OCAB was put on display. This is a great post, but be careful too many facts and stats only serve to upset some people on this board.

[RedLegsToday]

Isn't it sad when the college guy with NO minor league experience comes in with a better idea of what to do than many of our "veterans?"

He's only been under Dusty's "tutelage" for a couple months, give it time.

[Griffey012]

Yeah, I didn't actually think of that. My bad. :D But my point still stands that as far as this season goes, this is a statistical anomaly. A guy with a .668 OPS isn't going to be a big run producer going forward.

Right now it is too early to focus on his .668 OPS because he has only 113 PA's. Here are some number to reflect how much his OPS is influenced right now by some small changes. If he has 1 more BB or 1 more hit, his OBP goes up .0089 for each additional BB or Hit. 1 more base changes his SLG up by .0099. So for example if he beats out 1 infield base hit, gets a borderline pitched called a ball for ball 4, and has an outfielder lose the ball in the sun and drop for a double, his OPS would be .701 and which would be right about in line with his career norms and what he did in 08 and 09. Then we would all be thinking he was gonna drive in between 65-75 runs.

If we get half way through and OCab is still on pace for 92 RBI's then we will have a statistical anomaly approaching. Right now we are only a little more than 1/6th the way through.

[goreds2]

Hope he somehow makes the team.....He could though be the Billy Bates of our playoff roster.

http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120201&content_id=26536888&fext=.jsp&vkey=news_milb

[New York Red]

Is this the year Stubbs finally learns to shorten his swing with two strikes? :confused: