Pitching logjam after the break? A Wood problem to have.

[sabometrics]

With Wood looking so sharp in each of his outings, keeping his composure like a seasoned starter, the dynamic of this rotation seems suddenly very up in the air. It feels like it's going to be very tough to go and supplant him with someone else. Yet, Volquez is coming back after the break (goodbye Maloney). But Harang will be eligible to come back immediately after the break as well, there-in lies the issue. So, I ask, what should the rotation/bullpen look like starting the second half?

If I had my choice it would look like:
Rotation
#1) Arroyo - fronts the rotation to be the Hoover vacuum, sucking up innings down the stretch
#2) Volquez - seems to fit in this spot best with his current schedule
#3) Cueto - can't stick him behind the younger kids, but stick him behind the front two to get him more rest
#4) Leake - I would have him 5th to minimize innings, but I just don't like going Leake/Arroyo back-to-back
#5) Wood - see above.

Bullpen
RHP: Owings
RHP: Ondrusek
RHP: Masset
LHP: Bray
LHP: Rhodes
Closer: Cordero

There's no way you can stick Harang back in the rotation over Wood imo. Now after these 11 there's the issue of what to do with the 7th Bullpen spot. Smith? Harang? Maloney? Chapman? Burton? The options are plentiful if Dusty keeps Wood in the rotation.

I'd look for the Reds to stretch out Harang's rehab as long as they can until a role opens up for him. Maloney should stay on a regular rest in the minors as insurance for the rotation in the meantime. Chapman is clearly not ready for a bullpen role. So it comes down to Burton/Smith imo for who will occupy that spot (for at least a week or two). I say stick with Smith for the time being.

Long run, the big questions are #1) What on earth do we do with Harang if a rotation spot doesn't look open? I can't see him transitioning well into a reliever. I also can't imagine sending Wood back down if he is still performing. And #2) What is Homer's role? He has a bullpen session tomorrow and could be back in 3-4 weeks. In the current situation I'd say his he should be in the pen for the remainder of the season, as his mentality seems suited for it (he's got a mean streak in him man!) and there doesn't seem to be any room in the rotation, but the smart move is to get him back throwing on regular rest, then think about changing his role in Louisville if things are still log-jammed in the rotation come August.

Bottom line: these are all great conundrums for Dusty to be pondering, there is a wealth of starting pitching right now. Likely this will all solve itself with an injury or two soon after the break, but lets say everyone is healthy by Early August - what are your thoughts?

[Orodle]

Harang pretty much lost his job tonight. Unless Volquez falters in his return Harang is in the pen, traded, or dare I even say the waiver wire?

[sabometrics]

Waivers isn't an option for Harang. He still has value, but we need to find out how we are going to use that value he has left. The bullpen just doesn't seem like an option to me, so I wouldn't be surprised if we saw Walt try to shop him (+ $$$ to compensate for his contract) for some pieces that fit.

[Roush's socks]

I thought they were going to "shut Leake down" at a certain point this year. Also, Bailey and Volquez are both pretty iffy right now coming back from injuries. So I think it will all work out this year. Wood has to continue to start the way he is pitching.

Going into next year, I think that Harang is gone and maybe Bailey too leaving Arroyo, Cueto, Leake, Wood, Volquez and one other guy for insurance. I think they should make Bailey into the closer, but maybe he doesn't want to.

[sabometrics]

If we're going to talk next year then you need to have 7-8 guys ideally to cover for injuries (as we've seen so far this year). With Harang gone in the offseason or sooner we'll have Volquez, Arroyo, Cueto, Leake, Wood, Bailey, Chapman, and Maloney/LeCure. Still 9 guys, so we could trade one guy for another piece we need. Or we could just not pick up Arroyo's option, but I don't like that idea. Need his veteran status and rubber arm in the rotation imo.

But more to the current situation, I think you may be right that our 'problems' will solve themselves. I'm really interested in seeing how Bailey's bullpen session goes and what our plan will be for him. He's the most perplexing arm in the organization, no doubt.

[Vottomatic]

If I had my choice it would look like:
Rotation
#1) Arroyo - fronts the rotation to be the Hoover vacuum, sucking up innings down the stretch
#2) Volquez - seems to fit in this spot best with his current schedule
#3) Cueto - can't stick him behind the younger kids, but stick him behind the front two to get him more rest
#4) Leake - I would have him 5th to minimize innings, but I just don't like going Leake/Arroyo back-to-back
#5) Wood - see above.


Mine would be:

1. Volquez - tends to corner pick and isn't efficient with his pitches. Fastball/slider guy.
2. Arroyo - change of pace guy and can pick up the innings that Volquez gave way to the bullpen the night before.
3. Wood - lefty, change of pace guy.
4. Cueto - fastball/slider/changeup guy.
5. Leake - conserve his innings. Change of pace guy.

We knew they'd let Harang walk after the season. But starting to look like many of us are ready to trade Bailey too.

[sabometrics]

Volquez a fastball-slider guy? He's always thrived off his fastball-changeup combo. Before he was hurt it was considered one of the best in the game.

[redsfan_12]

I wouldnt put Volquez at #1 just yet.

Cueto
Arroyo
Volquez
Leake
Wood

[texasdave]

I will just throw this out there. Not sure how feasible it might be. Leake is at 110 innings. They want to limit him to around 170. How about Leake and Harang splitting games? Both would stay on a five day schedule. Nobody has to worry about adjusting to a relief role. Start Leake and limit him to five innings. You get 12 more starts out of him that way, which would be most of the season. Harang might be more effective knowing he only has to go four innings. Maybe he kick up his velocity a notch. He can easily handle four innings of work. The bullpen gets rested every five days for the most part. Just thinking outside the box a little.

[bellhead]

You all forgot about Homer, we still have him on the injured list. Man what a nice problem to have...

[texasdave]

Homer rhymes with closer. Just sayin'. :)

[KOBasinger]

Replace Cordero with Chapman and I'm happy.

[Vottomatic]

Homer rhymes with closer. Just sayin'. :)

No. Hoser rhymes with closer. Just sayin'.

Or Homer rhymes with clomer. We don't need a clomer in our bullpen.

[Vottomatic]

Replace Cordero with Chapman and I'm happy.

Gonna be alot of baseclearing brawls if Aroldis continues to hit batters at his Louisville rate of hitting batters. Just sayin'. :D

Of course, we could bring him up for the St. Louis series and have him bean Carpenter, Wainwright and Garcia in consecutive games. I'd be alright with that. :p:

[Orodle]

Volquez a fastball-slider guy? He's always thrived off his fastball-changeup combo. Before he was hurt it was considered one of the best in the game.

haha ya definitely a fastball-CHANGEUP guy.

[Orodle]

If the Reds are in a playoff hunt they definitely wont completely shut down Leake. They should limit his innings but when everyone and their brother saw a perfect time to do this the other night Dusty didnt think it was such a good idea......

As for Chapman as closer right now......if your sick of Cordero getting behind in the count you could expect the same from Chapman.

[Griffey012]

Homer rhymes with closer. Just sayin'. :)

I am with this. Even if it doesn't quite rhyme.

[ILoveWilly]

If the Reds are in a playoff hunt they definitely wont completely shut down Leake. They should limit his innings but when everyone and their brother saw a perfect time to do this the other night Dusty didnt think it was such a good idea......

As for Chapman as closer right now......if your sick of Cordero getting behind in the count you could expect the same from Chapman.

Give me a break dude. Leake had a low pitch count and was pitching great, a chance for his first complete game, and gave up runs on a couple of bloop singles and a foul pole HR.

I agree Chapman is just as wild in Triple A. We need to make a trade for some relievers, as I've been saying for the 20th time.

[lidspinner]

I dont mind taking some heat for this but here is my solution:

Trade Bronson, Francisco,Janish, and Yonder for Dan Haren and Stephen Drew. I know Bronson is a animal and eats innings for us....but Dan Haren eats just as many innings, a few more in fact....and puts up similar numbers as Bronson. Bronson trade value is never going to be higher than it is right now and he just said basically "pay me" after his contract is up after next year. So i f he is not going to be here after next year, lets take our chances with seeing what Haren can give us and if he too leaves after next year then we gained a SS for basically a year and a half of Bronson....and we get a Bronson clone to boot.

So this year we have to live with either Aaron H. or Homer B. as a starter...the other goes to the pen or stays on the DL.....so here is what he have to finsih the year..

JCueto
Edinson V-Homer B.-Aaron H.
Dan Haren
Travis Wood
Mike Leake-Homer B.-Aaron H

now we are looking at having the SS of our future and a dam good looking rotation and I have not even counted on Chapman.....so to start 2011 we have this considering we will not keep Aaron H.

JCueto
EVolquez
Dan Haren
Travis Wood
Mike Leake
Chapman

you tell me that is not sick? even if someone has to bite the bullet and go the pen for the year and come up in 2012 when Haren is free to go.

[Vottomatic]

I dont mind taking some heat for this but here is my solution:

Trade Bronson, Francisco,Janish, and Yonder for Dan Haren and Stephen Drew. I know Bronson is a animal and eats innings for us....but Dan Haren eats just as many innings, a few more in fact....and puts up similar numbers as Bronson. Bronson trade value is never going to be higher than it is right now and he just said basically "pay me" after his contract is up after next year. So i f he is not going to be here after next year, lets take our chances with seeing what Haren can give us and if he too leaves after next year then we gained a SS for basically a year and a half of Bronson....and we get a Bronson clone to boot.

So this year we have to live with either Aaron H. or Homer B. as a starter...the other goes to the pen or stays on the DL.....so here is what he have to finsih the year..

JCueto
Edinson V-Homer B.-Aaron H.
Dan Haren
Travis Wood
Mike Leake-Homer B.-Aaron H

now we are looking at having the SS of our future and a dam good looking rotation and I have not even counted on Chapman.....so to start 2011 we have this considering we will not keep Aaron H.

JCueto
EVolquez
Dan Haren
Travis Wood
Mike Leake
Chapman

you tell me that is not sick? even if someone has to bite the bullet and go the pen for the year and come up in 2012 when Haren is free to go.

Dan Haren is signed through '12 at $12.75M with an option for '13 at the same price.

Trading for him basically extends what you'd get from Arroyo or possibly better, for 2 more years or more.

I'd do that deal. Wish we could throw in OCab though.

[lidspinner]

Dan Haren is signed through '12 at $12.75M with an option for '13 at the same price.

Trading for him basically extends what you'd get from Arroyo or possibly better, for 2 more years or more.

I'd do that deal. Wish we could throw in OCab though.


even better yet....but probably means we would have to sweeten that deal up a little or pay more of Bronsons contract. Seems like a win-win for both clubs and a no brainer for Zona considering they are in rebuild mode.

[sabometrics]

I'm really interested in seeing how Bailey's bullpen session goes and what our plan will be for him. He's the most perplexing arm in the organization, no doubt.

So does anyone know how Homer's bullpen session went Sunday? Fay reported he would be throwing with Price watching him, but I haven't seen anything on how he looked/felt.

[GaiusBallstar]

Trade for a TOR type guy and put Leake in the pen to keep his innings down. Leake can be a spot starter in case anyone falls apart. Try using Harang in the bullpen as well, but the best case scenario would be trading him for a bag of balls and mid 20s minor leaguer. IMO this situation gets the 4 best arms in the rotation plus the new guy, keeps Leake's innings down, and still gives you insurance with Leake, Maloney, Lecure, etc.

TOR trade
Arroyo
Cueto
Volquez
Wood

[bshall2105]

Trade for a TOR type guy and put Leake in the pen to keep his innings down. Leake can be a spot starter in case anyone falls apart. Try using Harang in the bullpen as well, but the best case scenario would be trading him for a bag of balls and mid 20s minor leaguer. IMO this situation gets the 4 best arms in the rotation plus the new guy, keeps Leake's innings down, and still gives you insurance with Leake, Maloney, Lecure, etc.

TOR trade
Arroyo
Cueto
Volquez
Wood

I wish we could just wave a wand and no longer have Harang, and also have a new TOR pitcher on the team but that is very unrealistic. There is also no room for Aaron in the bullpen, he's basically worthless to the team right now and the Reds can't do anything about it. I have been wanting Leake to eventually go to the bullpen, and if they tried it with Chapman they might try it with Leake. Reds rotation looks great for the stretch run, it looks like the pitching is trending up while the bats are trending down.

[GaiusBallstar]

I wish we could just wave a wand and no longer have Harang, and also have a new TOR pitcher on the team but that is very unrealistic. There is also no room for Aaron in the bullpen, he's basically worthless to the team right now and the Reds can't do anything about it. I have been wanting Leake to eventually go to the bullpen, and if they tried it with Chapman they might try it with Leake. Reds rotation looks great for the stretch run, it looks like the pitching is trending up while the bats are trending down.

I'm sure they're are teams that would take a guy whose a solid number 4 for some, but for us, is not anymore. He could in a deal as salary relief, instead of the team trading with us sending salary relief to us, and I think he could be more useful in the pen then say Owings or Smith.

Yes, a magic wand isn't going to send Harang away, and I'm not of the camp who thinks he's a stinky turd that must be flushed. He's still a solid back of the rotation guy, but we have alot of pitching talent on the roster, and if a solid starter can be acquired, Harangs the guy who needs to go, whether that be to the pen or to another team.

Do you really think that Leake and Harang would not at least be a wash with Smith and Owings, if they replaced those 2 guys in the pen?

[bshall2105]

I like Leake to replace maybe Micah Owings. But I like what Smith brings to the table in the bullpen. He is a ground ball pitcher with great action on his fastball, that is what you need coming in in tough spots. Aaron gives up so many home runs that I just don't see him making it work in the pen. He can't be expected to come in and get a double play, I just don't like what he brings to the table.

[lidspinner]

Trade for a TOR type guy and put Leake in the pen to keep his innings down. Leake can be a spot starter in case anyone falls apart. Try using Harang in the bullpen as well, but the best case scenario would be trading him for a bag of balls and mid 20s minor leaguer. IMO this situation gets the 4 best arms in the rotation plus the new guy, keeps Leake's innings down, and still gives you insurance with Leake, Maloney, Lecure, etc.

TOR trade
Arroyo
Cueto
Volquez
Wood


name one team that takes Aaron and his contract? If we are going to have to pay his contract then lets keep him and use his arm for the pen....this team is built for the future....only problem is this future does not look like it has a SS or a bull pen....

[GaiusBallstar]

name one team that takes Aaron and his contract? If we are going to have to pay his contract then lets keep him and use his arm for the pen....this team is built for the future....only problem is this future does not look like it has a SS or a bull pen....

If Harang remains a Red after the deadline, and no starter is added through a trade, probably best to keep him in the rotation.

Harang could possibly be traded one of two ways, either he goes to another team who we send prospects to for a pitcher or a bat, as salary relife for us. Instead of said team sending cahs the Reds way, they take Harangs contract. He could be part of a three team deal, with the third team either keeping him as a BOR arm for the stretch run or flipping him by sending cash to another team with him for middling prospects. Harang could also be dealt by the reds, with some cash to help pay his salary and his buyout, to another team for a bag of balls.

Minnesota, Detroit, and LAA could all use a guy like Harang, and thats just in the AL. People on this board think Harang is tatamount to pitching cancer, yet those teams all have at least one guy in their rotation with an ERA over 6. He can be traded. Hes just not the guy teams want, hes the consolation prize, had right before the deadline, or as a waiver wire deal.

But as I said in my earlier post, I have no problem with Harang taking Owings role in the pen. Though Owings would have to DFA'd I think, but DFAing a marginal pitcher like Owings is inconsequential. Someone said they'll miss Jordan Smith and his groundballs, I think Leake can get some groundballs, but I may be wrong.;)

[Girevik]

name one team that takes Aaron and his contract? If we are going to have to pay his contract then lets keep him and use his arm for the pen....this team is built for the future....only problem is this future does not look like it has a SS or a bull pen....

What if you could move him and keep his contract, but pick up either a prospect or a guy that can fill a hole this year (maybe even a legit releiver). I'd have to give that some strong consideration....I'm not sure how well Harang would do in the pen, and he'd be taking someone else's spot.

[brm7675]

My rotation after the break:

Bronson in the #1
Cueto in the #2 slot
Wood in the #3 slot
Leake in the #4 slot
Harrang in the #5 slot

I leave Volquez in the minors to continue to get his arm strength back till Sept. Then I bring him in and sit Leake for the season. I put Homer down in AAA until Sept to get his arm strength back up and see how he does. I use either him or Malloney to off set Wood if need be.

[Lockdwn11]

My rotation after the break:

Bronson in the #1
Cueto in the #2 slot
Wood in the #3 slot
Leake in the #4 slot
Harrang in the #5 slot

I leave Volquez in the minors to continue to get his arm strength back till Sept. Then I bring him in and sit Leake for the season. I put Homer down in AAA until Sept to get his arm strength back up and see how he does. I use either him or Malloney to off set Wood if need be.

I'm not sure but isn't Homer out of options?

[brm7675]

I'm not sure but isn't Homer out of options?

medical rehab...

[Lockdwn11]

medical rehab...

For 1 1/2 months? Not sure you can do that.

[Lockdwn11]

I found it a Pitcher who is out of options can be sent down for rehab for 30 days.

[Orodle]

You don't need to send Leake to the pen to cut his innings. Just don't have him pitch unnecessary innings like the other night. Atleast in the rotation he has a set schedule of keeping his arm in shape on his rest days. In the pen you cant do that because you might pitch that day or next day. The pen can be more taxing on the arm because of this.

[brm7675]

For 1 1/2 months? Not sure you can do that.


That is what the DL is for.

[Lockdwn11]

That is what the DL is for.

Ok and as for Volquez who is already on his rehab? I guess you could option him but thats not really realistic is it.

[brm7675]

Ok and as for Volquez who is already on his rehab? I guess you could option him but thats not really realistic is it.

Volquez is also on a rehab and can stay there till he is healthy to activate. Why not allow him a chance to build up arm strength. Why rush him?

[BLEEDS]

Leake and Wood will share starts down the stretch. Leake has already been skipped a couple times. He's got maybe 8 starts max in him I'd say.

Arroyo
Cueto
Harang (he'll be back right after the break, on schedule)

Volquez w/ Bailey maybe back at some point for spot starts if/when Volquez needs an extra day off; if not, then Homer perhaps slides into the pen for the stretch run, meanwhile pitches every day in AAA.

Leake/Wood w/Maloney in reserve.

Sure the time is ripe for a trade. Just don't know who's going to take Harang + Alonso + ??? and what we hope to get back for it. Possibly Houston would do that in order to dump Oswalt and his remaining contract, net themselves Alonso+ and them dump Harang after this year, saving a boatload of cash.

Arroyo, it'd have to be a King's Ransom for us to give him up at this point. Maybe Grienke type, seriously we'd have to be blown away.

I like our young arms, but we need one solid TOR 200+ innings guy in 2011. Something's got to give, or simply we keep Arroyo (may do this regardless).

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[5DOLLAR-BLEACHERBUM]

My rotation after the break:

Bronson in the #1
Cueto in the #2 slot
Wood in the #3 slot
Leake in the #4 slot
Harrang in the #5 slot

I leave Volquez in the minors to continue to get his arm strength back till Sept. Then I bring him in and sit Leake for the season. I put Homer down in AAA until Sept to get his arm strength back up and see how he does. I use either him or Malloney to off set Wood if need be.
I know he hasn't been all that great lately, or the last couple years but, you could do alot worse than Harrang as your fifth starter. Wow if someone posted a few years ago that Harrang would be the fifth starter in 2010 this site would have crashed. Remember the fifth starters from the last 5 years, me neither.

[GaiusBallstar]

Leake and Wood will share starts down the stretch.

Are you proposing a 6 man rotation with Leake and Wood alternating? I'm not sure if the Reds are creative enough for that.

[Red Rover]

I don't think that Homer will sniff the rotation again this year. Although now that Louisville is without a closer(Adkins released) and Cordero struggling, could some kind of shared closer role based on matchups with Homer and Chapman work?

[BLEEDS]

Are you proposing a 6 man rotation with Leake and Wood alternating? I'm not sure if the Reds are creative enough for that.

They've already rested Leak before. They are both going to need rest, and eventually Leake is going to be shut-down.

So yes, it will happen - not saying starting after the ASB they go 50-50, but they are both going to be skipping starts, and we've got Maloney and Homer looking to get starts too, and Volquez may be limited somewhat too.
Doesn't take that much creativity at all.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[GaiusBallstar]

They've already rested Leak before. They are both going to need rest, and eventually Leake is going to be shut-down.

So yes, it will happen - not saying starting after the ASB they go 50-50, but they are both going to be skipping starts, and we've got Maloney and Homer looking to get starts too, and Volquez may be limited somewhat too.
Doesn't take that much creativity at all.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

I don't think the Reds are going to expand beyond the typical 5 man rotation. They'll probably just send Maloney down once Harang gets back, and I don't see Homer being back this season. As for Volquez, it will be interesting to see what they do with, but it looks like right now he'll back in the rotation. It will be interesting to see who he replaces.

I also don't see the Reds shutting Leake down completely or moving him to the pen unless they acquire a starter.

[sabometrics]

Per Fay: (http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2010/07/14/a-theory-on-why-volquez-is-throwing-harder/)


By the way, I’m hearing Volquez will start Saturday. Bronson Arroyo is going to go Friday.

Looks like the top of the rotation is shaping up how I expected it to, but Dusty is playing his cards close to his chest as to what the back of the rotation will look like. The interesting story will come later this weekend apparently.

[sabometrics]

In other news that was lost over the AS break, Homer had what sounded like a successful bullpen session Sunday and will throw again on Thursday:


"It went well," pitching coach Bryan Price said. "He had no problems at all." Bailey will throw another bullpen Thursday when the Reds return from the All-Star break. "Depending on how he responds, we'll get more aggressive after that," Price said.
via Yahoo

[Roush's socks]

If Bailey was willing to move to the bullpen I think he could be effective.

Just last year Bailey had a GREAT 2nd half and looked liked he was putting it together. Maybe people are giving up on him too soon. The Reds are going to have to make choices in the rotation. Wood has pitched too good to not continue starting.

[texasdave]

And to think they gave Sam LeCure six starts before getting around to Wood. I wonder what their thinking was on that one? Hasn't Wood always been more highly thought of than LeCure?

[sabometrics]

Yes, but LeCure came up while he was on a tear (2.55 ERA and two consecutive scoreless starts, one a 1-hit shutout). At that same time Wood had two really rough recent starts and was just getting started on his own streak of 8 consecutive quality starts. He was more hyped by just about everyone (still seemingly under-hyped), but didn't "deserve" the call-up as some would say, and more importantly, he didn't look like the guy who could best help the big league club.

[BLEEDS]

I also don't see the Reds shutting Leake down completely or moving him to the pen unless they acquire a starter.

You are half right.
No way they move him to the pen.

He WILL be shut down though. He's still young, and he got tired about this time last year at the CWS and they shut him down right after v. trying to get him into any minor games. I think it was 140 innings or so? (without looking it up).

I'd say by end of August at the latest, and that's WITH skipping starts, he'll be shut down.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[Girevik]

And to think they gave Sam LeCure six starts before getting around to Wood. I wonder what their thinking was on that one? Hasn't Wood always been more highly thought of than LeCure?

And to be fair, Lecure's first several starts were pretty solid, and once the league started to put together a "book" on him he started getting hit. Let's not assume that because Wood is off to a great start that's necessarily going to last.

[sabometrics]

Bailey update:

Right-hander Homer Bailey, on the disabled list since May 24 with shoulder tightness, threw his second bullpen session.

"He had a good day today," Jocketty said. "He's probably still two to three weeks away."

per Fay (http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20100715/SPT04/7160360/Chapman-promotion-isn-t-in-the-works)
With that timetable, barring any setbacks (which are possible after his last rehab run), they're looking at him being ready sometime in the first two weeks of August. I guess he'll have a simulated start then the brass will get him into a rehab assignment quickly if 2-3 weeks is their target. Still seems very optimistic though.

We'll see how things are looking then but for the time being I like how having Harang/Bailey waiting in the wings can keep the rest of the rotation (but mostly Wood) motivated to perform so they can keep their spots.