"What if" v. Playoff rotation

[GIDP]

I was going to make this thread earlier today but never really got around to it.

What would your reds playoff rotation look like right now.

Id have to go:
Cueto
Arroyo
Volquez
Wood if we needed a 4th starter.

If Leake is available Id probably put him in there instead of Wood. Also Volquez depends on how healthy the guy is.

I guess what I was really going for is who would you give the ball to if the playoffs started tomorrow and all the pitchers were rested.


What say you guys.

[KOBasinger]

Cueto would be my ace for sure. Arroyo and Volquez after.

[bshall2105]

1. Arroyo The guy gets it done in big games
2. Cueto Arguably the best pitcher for the Reds this year, high pitch count would be a concern for the playoffs
3. Leake If he's still availible he's the guy, pretty consistent all year
4. Harang... JK Volquez, just because he's capable of completely shutting teams down

[sivman17]

Depends on how Volquez finishes the season. I would love to have Leake involved, but who knows what will happen since he's on an inning count. I would go:

Cueto
Arroyo
Volquez
Leake

[Eric the Red]

It's truly a debatable question. Bronson has the most postseason experience but its been 5 or 6 years since he tasted October. I believe Edinson has the best stuff and potential. Cueto has probably been the most consistent. Leake is arguably the most competitive and bulldog like. Depending on the opponent Travis Wood may be the best matchup. With all that said, if the playoffs started tomorrow I'd go
Game 1 - Leake
Game 2 - Cueto
Game 3 - Volquez
Game 4 - Arroyo

Bullpen would consist of Wood, Bailey, Chapman, Ondrusek, Masset, Rhodes, Cordero
* If this is October I'd replace Masset with Isringhausen. Since I mentioned if the playoffs start tomorrow, Izzy isn't ready yet.

[Hondo]

I would acquire Zach Grienke and Place him in the 1st hole...

[kfm]

Depends on how Volquez finishes the season. I would love to have Leake involved, but who knows what will happen since he's on an inning count. I would go:

Cueto
Arroyo
Volquez
Leake

Ditto for me. Use Wood in bullpen to help get lefties out.

[bshall2105]

It's truly a debatable question. Bronson has the most postseason experience but its been 5 or 6 years since he tasted October. I believe Edinson has the best stuff and potential. Cueto has probably been the most consistent. Leake is arguably the most competitive and bulldog like. Depending on the opponent Travis Wood may be the best matchup. With all that said, if the playoffs started tomorrow I'd go
Game 1 - Leake
Game 2 - Cueto
Game 3 - Volquez
Game 4 - Arroyo

Bullpen would consist of Wood, Bailey, Chapman, Ondrusek, Masset, Rhodes, Cordero
* If this is October I'd replace Masset with Isringhausen. Since I mentioned if the playoffs start tomorrow, Izzy isn't ready yet.

No way Arroyo isn't one of the top 2 pitchers in the playoff rotation.

[Eric the Red]

No way Arroyo isn't one of the rop 2 pitchers in the playoff rotation.

I should probably look up some stats but its Saturday night and I'm a little lazy so I'll just say that I don't trust Bronson as much as the other three against the playoff lineups of Atl, Phi, LA, or Col that we'll face in the Division series. When Bronson's control of strike zone is there, he is as good as we have. It's the inconsistency of his command that worries me.

[RedsLvr]

For sure I'd go with Cueto, Arroyo, Volquez in that order for the first three games. At this point I'd much rather have Leake pitching in that 4th spot, but time could change my opinion on that. If Wood shows the consistency that Leake had over the first half over the first half of the season then I'd go with Wood. I'm afraid of Leake's arm getting tired late in the season, yet alone in mid to late October.

[Eric the Red]

For sure I'd go with Cueto, Arroyo, Volquez in that order for the first three games. At this point I'd much rather have Leake pitching in that 4th spot, but time could change my opinion on that. If Wood shows the consistency that Leake had over the first half over the first half of the season then I'd go with Wood. I'm afraid of Leake's arm getting tired late in the season, yet alone in mid to late October.

Fair point about Leake and his workload. I just think he gives the team the best chance to win among all of our starters. He has only had one start all year in which the team really didn't have a chance to win (Philly @ home) so given how important game 1 of a 5 game series is, I'd go with the rookie. His mentality and composure is incredible.

[bshall2105]

Even if Leake is out of innings for the playoffs, I keep him on the team to leadoff and play SS.

[Vottomatic]

It's a tough call for me. None of them have playoff experience to my knowledge.

Do you go with veterans or the young guys getting it done?

I would imagine they'd all be nervous.

Not sure what I'd do. Probably go with the hot hand leading up to the postseason.

[sabometrics]

#1 - Arroyo - Only one with playoff experience, he's the guy I want getting the ball in game one to deal with the pressure, not either of the rookies or the still young Cueto/Volquez.

#2 - Cueto - Has been our best pitcher thus far, earns this spot, but his relative inexperience keeps him from being the top guy.

#3 - Volquez - Could be lower depending on how he continues to progress, but this is where I'd want him.

#4 - Wood - This is the "I hope" pick. Leake will be unavailable, that much we know. Out of Wood/Bailey/Harang, Wood is the guy I want, but it remains to be seen how each of these guys will be throwing down the stretch.

Best Bullpen w/o any trades: Cordero, Masset, Rhodes, Ondrusek, Chapman, Bailey + 1 more (probably Harang, but I still hate the idea of him in the bullpen)

[sivman17]

Arroyo was in the postseason in 2003-2005 with the Sawx. Coming out of the bullpen, he posted a 7.41 ERA in 17.0 IP and a 1.647 WHIP.

Not particularly dominant, but I think it shows he isn't effective out of the bullpen. He had pitched well during those regular seasons as a starter.

So anyway.. I would definitely put him as our #1 or #2 starter in the playoffs.

And I really REALLY hope that Harang does not get to sniff the playoffs if we make if there. I do not want him in there at all.

[davereds24]

Leake will not be around to start in October.

With home field
Cueto
EV
Bronson

Without home field
Bronson
Cueto
EV

[Eric the Red]

Arroyo was in the postseason in 2003-2005 with the Sawx. Coming out of the bullpen, he posted a 7.41 ERA in 17.0 IP and a 1.647 WHIP.

Not particularly dominant, but I think it shows he isn't effective out of the bullpen. He had pitched well during those regular seasons as a starter.

So anyway.. I would definitely put him as our #1 or #2 starter in the playoffs.

And I really REALLY hope that Harang does not get to sniff the playoffs if we make if there. I do not want him in there at all.

Out of the bullpen or starting it doesn't matter, those stats show me he isn't likely against a playoff lineup to get hitters out. In 2010 against STL, SD, NYM, COL, and LA (possible playoff teams) he is 5-3 with a 4.90 ERA. Those are average numbers imo, not a #1 or #2 playoff starter numbers.

I do agree with you on Harang. I'll blame O'Brien I think it was for giving him so many years on his current contract.

[bshall2105]

Leake will not be around to start in October.

With home field
Cueto
EV
Bronson

Without home field
Bronson
Cueto
EV

I think he'll be skipping starts or at least getting pushed back more often. The FO or Dusty will find away to have Leake start in October if he is one of the top three pitchers on the team going into the playoffs.

[davereds24]

I think he'll be skipping starts or at least getting pushed back more often. The FO or Dusty will find away to have Leake start in October if he is one of the top three pitchers on the team going into the playoffs.

I hope you are right, but with EV and Wood in the rotation it will be really hard to limit Leake's starts. He can go about 10-11 more times max this year, and that's stretching it. With 63 games left, outside of going to a 6man rotation with Harang I don't see where they can make it happen.

[texasdave]

Cueto
Arroyo
Volquez
Wood

I like Arroyo as a change of pace between Cueto and Volquez.

[bshall2105]

I hope you are right, but with EV and Wood in the rotation it will be really hard to limit Leake's starts. He can go about 10-11 more times max this year, and that's stretching it. With 63 games left, outside of going to a 6man rotation with Harang I don't see where they can make it happen.

If they could find a way to go 2 weeks without him, I could see Mike sneezing his way onto the DL like Matt Latos.

[RedsLvr]

Well you have to understand that the reds are in a good position with starting pitching right now. We have the depth in our starting pitching to go into the playoffs with 4 good starting pitchers, without hurting our rookie arms. No, we do not have an astonishing rotation. But we Cueto, Arroyo, Volquez, and Wood who all four have proved this year that they are capable of great things.

I believe that the reds should let Leake pitch his set amount of innings for the year, and then let Wood take his spot in the rotation. All the while letting Wood take a start for Harang every once in a while. Once playoff time comes, you have a good pitcher in Wood who has now gotten some good innings in the majors pitch for you in a fourth spot in the playoff pitching rotation.

[sivman17]

I have a really hard time sitting Leake for the playoffs simply because he has reached his "maximum innings" mark. I don't want to jeopardize his future, but if we make it to the postseason, he would have been a huge reason why. He has great composure and confidence, and he's exactly the type of player I would want starting a playoff game. They really need a find a way to limit his innings during the season so that he will be available for the playoffs.

[RedsLvr]

I have a really hard time sitting Leake for the playoffs simply because he has reached his "maximum innings" mark. I don't want to jeopardize his future, but if we make it to the postseason, he would have been a huge reason why. He has great composure and confidence, and he's exactly the type of player I would want starting a playoff game. They really need a find a way to limit his innings during the season so that he will be available for the playoffs.

He's not going to be available for the playoffs man. We don't use him now, we likely wont be in contention come mid September. We use him now, he won't be available come postseason ball.

We use him now and pitch him then and we ruin the arm of possible future ace and Dusty gets run out of town when everyone blames it on him. I'd much rather save his arm than risking it..especially when we have the talent to be there every year for years to come. We ruin his arm and we ruin that possibility as well.

[sabometrics]

Out of the bullpen or starting it doesn't matter, those stats show me he isn't likely against a playoff lineup to get hitters out. In 2010 against STL, SD, NYM, COL, and LA (possible playoff teams) he is 5-3 with a 4.90 ERA. Those are average numbers imo, not a #1 or #2 playoff starter numbers.

I do agree with you on Harang. I'll blame O'Brien I think it was for giving him so many years on his current contract.

I'd argue in defense of Arroyo, but I think I'll steer clear of arguments concerning the playoffs for at least another month and a half.

[lidspinner]

GREAT topic......here is my take

why cant you use Wood and Leake out of the pen if their innings are an issue? Lets say Bronson is our #1 starter....Bronson is known to either be lights out or horrible....if he is the latter then instead of going to the pen in the 3rd inning and grabbing an unknown, go grab Travis Wood to go another 4 innings. I see no reason why we could not use those 2 guys for that situation and that would help solve a glaring problem in the pen.

So we got

Bronson
Cueto
Edinson

I see 3 starters who dominate when on and 2 starters who have the chance of maybe not getting past the 4th inning if their not on....and I dont trust our pen as it is going into the playoffs.....so adding Leake, Wood and maybe Aaron Harang to the pen might just solve that problem.....Harang maybe not since he has been a starter his entire career...but Wood and Leake are young and I am sure they can get ready in a short amount of time. Could we have a pen of

Wood
Leake
Jordan Smith
Chapman
Rhodes
Masset
Ondrusek
Coco

Who else????? Bray maybe

its been so long since I have thought about a playoff team I cannot remember how many pen members we would carry going into the playoffs.

[texasdave]

Bump. There you go.

[Roush's socks]

Of course a lot will change before the end of the season. Arroyo and Cueto seem like locks. One of the big ? marks is Volquez. They need to see where he's at after a few more starts. If Wood continues at this pace he could the #4 guy. Also there is an outside chance Harang or Bailey could come off the DL and be in form. Bailey did it last year so who knows?

[redssince75]

Bump. There you go.

Yep, I completely missed this thread. If an admin wants to merge, that would be appropriate.

[Newman4]

I would acquire Zach Grienke and Place him in the 1st hole...

Me too. With the reporters even mentioning the names Grienke and Soria tells me that the Royals have though about it. As I mentioned in another thread, I would offer up just about anyone in our system for a package of those two. Two 26 yr old pitchers with considerable success already getting to their prime years. Grienke is under team control for 2011 and 2012 and Soria all the way to 2014. Bailey, Donnie Joseph, Heisey, Frazier and Cozart was my original offer for those two and DeJesus but I would throw in Alonzo also if it got the deal done. Offer Cordero to the Phillies for Jason Werth, they certainly need a closer.