What if Walt stands pat?

[brm7675]

How will you view this team and ownership if Walt doesn't make any moves?

[sivman17]

Smart for not giving up too much for little in return in a bad trade market.

[knoonan991]

Smart for not giving up too much for little in return in a bad trade market.

:thumbup:

[ian_madden]

I don't want a "marginal" upgrade. If he doesn't make a blockbuster that will change the competitive balance for years to come, like the Rolen trade, I don't want one. Besides, he has signed several free agents, Izzy, Springer, and GMJ. I'm glad GMJ didn't work out, that proves to me at least what this team did early is legit, they are deep, good and here to stay.

[Griffey012]

I voted "great" because I have full faith in Walt to make sound baseball decisions for this season's playoff run and also for the long term success of the club. If he gets a reasonable deal to improve the club this season without giving up a pile of talent he will do it. But he won't panic.

[krm1580]

I trust Walt will do the right thing but I really don't envy him right now. I don't know if it is a function of the youth on this team but the Reds are a wildly inconsistent team which makes it very hard to improve.

Joey Votto and Scott Rolen are the only guys on this team, that month to month you pretty much know what you will get. Everybody else is up and down in HUGE swings.

Top three OPS guys in July - How many people would guess
Votto 1.111, Stubbs .761, Cabrera .706

Phillips, Rolen, Bruce and Gomes have been dreadful in July, but at the same time, when they play at the top of their game it will be extremely difficult to get someone better at any of their positions.

So I believe that the trade deadline will be pretty low key with maybe a bullpen arm or bench guy. Not much more than that.

[Kingspoint]

What if the Sun doesn't rise tomorrow.

Those are the same odds that Walt stands pat.

First of all, he's already done three things:

Sign Springer, Isringhausen, and Matthews.

He's also done other things:

Waited for the returns of Bray (good thing), Volquez (good thing), Burton's progress (we'll see), giving Fisher another shot.

And, he's been in communication with many, many teams exploring other things.

Walt has been quite busy and been anything but, "standing pat".

[RedsLvr]

I'd be surprised due to his history in making moves, but I also have faith in him and wouldn't be disappointed at all.

[Kingspoint]

I trust Walt will do the right thing but I really don't envy him right now. I don't know if it is a function of the youth on this team but the Reds are a wildly inconsistent team which makes it very hard to improve.

Joey Votto and Scott Rolen are the only guys on this team, that month to month you pretty much know what you will get. Everybody else is up and down in HUGE swings.

Top three OPS guys in July - How many people would guess
Votto 1.111, Stubbs .761, Cabrera .706

Phillips, Rolen, Bruce and Gomes have been dreadful in July, but at the same time, when they play at the top of their game it will be extremely difficult to get someone better at any of their positions.

So I believe that the trade deadline will be pretty low key with maybe a bullpen arm or bench guy. Not much more than that.

Good post.

[Vottomatic]

How will you view this team and ownership if Walt doesn't make any moves?

Dude, nothing personal, but it sure seems like you start alot of new threads around here. And most of them are kind of similar.

Just sayin'. :cool:

[sivman17]

Just made up this quick analysis of Reds' wins, pitching, and offensive stats by month. Didn't know where else to post it so I threw it in here.

April: (12-11, 5.41 ERA); .245 BA, .322 OBP, 106 R, 22 HR
May: (18-11, 3.84 ERA); .299 BA, .366 OBP, 162 R, 45 HR
June: (14-13, 4.19 ERA); .274 BA, .327 OBP, 118 R, 26 HR
July: (11-10, 3.08 ERA); .254 BA, .319 OBP, 96 R, 26 HR

Just going off of this, the weakness seems to be our offense. Although we have the #1 offense in the league, that was basically because of a ridiculous hot month of May and a good June. The Reds are currently 10 games over .500, 7 of which is because of the great month of May.

We definitely need another bat in this lineup. I just don't know if there's anyone out there worth a big move.

[Kingspoint]

We definitely need another bat in this lineup. I just don't know if there's anyone out there worth a big move.

Our biggest problem is the "politics". Dumping Cabrera is the obvious fix to this team. But, Dusty Baker is such a huge voice in the "War Room", and it seems his influence every season has this team in the exact same situation every time.........trying to find a replacement for a horrible Veteran's bat who hits in either the #1 spot or the #2 spot.

[knoonan991]

Our biggest problem is the "politics". Dumping Cabrera is the obvious fix to this team. But, Dusty Baker is such a huge voice in the "War Room", and it seems his influence every season has this team in the exact same situation every time.........trying to find a replacement for a horrible Veteran's bat who hits in either the #1 spot or the #2 spot.

So which SS within reason of the trade market will be an improvement over what we have right now in Cabrera?

[krm1580]

So which SS within reason of the trade market will be an improvement over what we have right now in Cabrera?

I think that is kind of the problem that the Reds and Walt face in a nutshell. The check list goes

1.) What players are realistically available?
2.) Are they a significant upgrade over what is currently on the roster
3.) Is the value they provide better than what they are trading away.

Just running through the exercise. Say Drew is available is does his .099 superior OPS improve the Reds so much that you are willing to trade away a Yonder Alonso.

I think what you will find is the guys available are only marginally better than what we have and the only way you will not overpay in prospects is if you take back really bad contracts.

[Kingspoint]

So which SS within reason of the trade market will be an improvement over what we have right now in Cabrera?

Every other starting Shortstop in the Major Leagues would be an improvement.

But, specifically, Arizona's Drew would be. His Defense is lights-out better than Cabrera's, and his OBP is lights-out better than Cabrera's.

As much as I've always liked and believed in Alonso, I'd trade Alonso for Drew straight up, and that would be more right there than Arizona got for Haren.

[brm7675]

Every other starting Shortstop in the Major Leagues would be an improvement.

But, specifically, Arizona's Drew would be. His Defense is lights-out better than Cabrera's, and his OBP is lights-out better than Cabrera's.

As much as I've always liked and believed in Alonso, I'd trade Alonso for Drew straight up, and that would be more right there than Arizona got for Haren.


Problem is...

A) You are not going to trade for a position that you just signed a player for in the off season
B) You are not going to trade for a player whom Dusty won't play over his "vet" whom he believes in.

[Reds]

Unless we nosedive they'll contribute success to leadership... basically we're not getting rid of cabrara or letting anyone take his job, IMO.

[Kingspoint]

Problem is...

A) You are not going to trade for a position that you just signed a player for in the off season
B) You are not going to trade for a player whom Dusty won't play over his "vet" whom he believes in.

Part B is the problem.

Part A isn't a problem for Walt, but it is for Dusty. The thing with Part A is that it wasn't a large contract. It's a fill-in until Cozart (or someone else we have and/or get) is ready.

[Griffey012]

Every other starting Shortstop in the Major Leagues would be an improvement.

But, specifically, Arizona's Drew would be. His Defense is lights-out better than Cabrera's, and his OBP is lights-out better than Cabrera's.

As much as I've always liked and believed in Alonso, I'd trade Alonso for Drew straight up, and that would be more right there than Arizona got for Haren.

I really hope you don't believe Cesar Izturis or Yuniesky Betancourt as our SS over Cabrera. Sounds like you have a personal issue with OCab to believe he is the WORST starting SS in the MLB.

His defense is lights out better than OCab's?

Drew's UZR
2007: -12.3
2008: -15.8
2009: 2.7
2010: 4.0

OCab's
2007: 12.7
2008: 14.3
2009: -13.6
2010: 5.3

I guess I don't understand these advanced fielding stats, cause it looks to me like OCab is actually at worst an equal fielder. Seems to me Stephen Drew would be a slight overall upgrade that's not worth the risk of disrupting team chemistry.

[brm7675]

Part B is the problem.

Part A isn't a problem for Walt, but it is for Dusty. The thing with Part A is that it wasn't a large contract. It's a fill-in until Cozart (or someone else we have and/or get) is ready.


I would disagree, if you are Walt, how do you explain to your owner, "Hey I brought OC in to play short, but now want this younger kid. As for B, as we see tonight, AGAIN Dusty proves he can not manage as he has OC batting leadoff. WHY? I challenge ANYONE to explain how you can bat OC anywhere but 7th or 8th.

[brm7675]

His defense is lights out better than OCab's?

Drew's UZR
2007: -12.3
2008: -15.8
2009: 2.7
2010: 4.0

OCab's
2007: 12.7
2008: 14.3
2009: -13.6
2010: 5.3

I guess I don't understand these advanced fielding stats, cause it looks to me like OCab is actually at worst an equal fielder. Seems to me Stephen Drew would be a slight overall upgrade that's not worth the risk of disrupting team chemistry.

Team chemistry is a myth....:thumbup:

[Reds]

I challenge ANYONE to explain how you can bat OC anywhere but 7th or 8th.

8 game hit streak, our hottest bat since the break. 3 hit game recently.

And w/o Brandon there, the only other choice would be stubbs, and he strikes out too much probably

[sabometrics]

Great. Greinke is the only guy that is "out there" that I see as a significant upgrade and #1) I don't see them moving him, and #2) I don't want us to pay out the nose to get him. Maybe a minor trade here or there will still happen, but nothing that lets major talent leave the organization. Lets prepare to contend for multiple seasons.

[knoonan991]

I think that is kind of the problem that the Reds and Walt face in a nutshell. The check list goes

1.) What players are realistically available?
2.) Are they a significant upgrade over what is currently on the roster
3.) Is the value they provide better than what they are trading away.

Just running through the exercise. Say Drew is available is does his .099 superior OPS improve the Reds so much that you are willing to trade away a Yonder Alonso.

I think what you will find is the guys available are only marginally better than what we have and the only way you will not overpay in prospects is if you take back really bad contracts.

Exactly :thumbup:

[knoonan991]

Every other starting Shortstop in the Major Leagues would be an improvement.

But, specifically, Arizona's Drew would be. His Defense is lights-out better than Cabrera's, and his OBP is lights-out better than Cabrera's.

As much as I've always liked and believed in Alonso, I'd trade Alonso for Drew straight up, and that would be more right there than Arizona got for Haren.

Don't get me wrong, if I could pick Drew or Cabrera for my team going forward, I take Stephen Drew every time.

But would you honestly want to have Brendan Ryan while the Cards have Cabrera? :dunno:

[Kingspoint]

I really hope you don't believe Cesar Izturis or Yuniesky Betancourt as our SS over Cabrera. Sounds like you have a personal issue with OCab to believe he is the WORST starting SS in the MLB.

His defense is lights out better than OCab's?

Drew's UZR
2007: -12.3
2008: -15.8
2009: 2.7
2010: 4.0

OCab's
2007: 12.7
2008: 14.3
2009: -13.6
2010: 5.3

I guess I don't understand these advanced fielding stats, cause it looks to me like OCab is actually at worst an equal fielder. Seems to me Stephen Drew would be a slight overall upgrade that's not worth the risk of disrupting team chemistry.

Another good post.

What I want to know is how did Cabrera improve his UZR to 5.3 this year? Less than 2 months ago it was a negative number. Did he turn into Ozzie Smith over the last 50 games? That's what he would have had to do in order to swing that number all the way to 5.3.

While he has improved lately, I haven't seen that kind of improvement. Maybe his "veteran" experience is helping him the 2nd time through the National League this season and he's putting himself in better position so that his "limited" range doesn't come into play as much.

[Kingspoint]

I would disagree, if you are Walt, how do you explain to your owner, "Hey I brought OC in to play short, but now want this younger kid. As for B, as we see tonight, AGAIN Dusty proves he can not manage as he has OC batting leadoff. WHY? I challenge ANYONE to explain how you can bat OC anywhere but 7th or 8th.

Pretty simple explanation.

Cabrera was the best on the market at the time and I went out and got him.

Hoping to find lightening in a bottle, it's just not there, and I'm now going to improve the position some more.

[Kingspoint]

When you trade to improve your team in mid-season, you're always "Buying High" and "Selling Low".

It's a rare situation for the REDS. I'm certainly OK with "Buying High" and "Selling Low" at this time.

[Griffey012]

Another good post.

What I want to know is how did Cabrera improve his UZR to 5.3 this year? Less than 2 months ago it was a negative number. Did he turn into Ozzie Smith over the last 50 games? That's what he would have had to do in order to swing that number all the way to 5.3.

While he has improved lately, I haven't seen that kind of improvement. Maybe his "veteran" experience is helping him the 2nd time through the National League this season and he's putting himself in better position so that his "limited" range doesn't come into play as much.

I don't know enough about UZR to be able to give a good explanation, but based off the games I have been able to catch on TV in Indy of late (about 2 out of every 3 game series is on here) OCab looks like a different defender post all-star break (probably helped he got to rest his ankle). He has made some nice plays in the hole recently and him and Phillips have had some great DP turns. I don't know how much a few plays will effect the UZR rating, but I know they suggest looking at 3 years worth of UZR because it has some volatility with it.

Your last paragraph may be the spot on explanation. In combination with learning the players, and also learning the tendencies of his own pitchers have probably helped. I was pretty surprised when I looked at fangraphs and saw he was at 5.3, I figured he was probably around 0.

[Kingspoint]

Cabrera is hitting in July and getting on base (.338 OBP).

He's improving his Defense, clearly.

The DP turns have been great all season.

Maybe the problem is solved.

[powersackers]

Cabrera is hitting in July and getting on base (.338 OBP).

He's improving his Defense, clearly.

The DP turns have been great all season.

Maybe the problem is solved.

Might be. .338 is still crappy for a lead off hitter. But for now it's our best bet. Stubbs is the problem here. He lost the game tonight by not even making contact with less than 2 outs and the bases loaded.

[Tampa Red]

Like many others, I don't think the cost in terms of prospects is worth any of the available bats.

However, I'd be more than happy to go all in for an ace that the Reds would have for multiple years. In otherwords, persue Greinke.

I know the Royals want two mlb ready arms with potential to produce Greinke stats, but offer a bit less quality in exchange for a bit more quantity and see what happens.

The trade talks would probably start and end with Cueto and Wood. Furthermore, I don't think KC would be interested in Chapman's contract. KC doesn't really need Alonso or Mesoraco with Hosmer and Myers producing at AA. The two teams don't really appear to be a good match for this deal.

So, offer up Wood, Bailey, and any two minor leaguers and see what happens. It might take Wood, Bailey, Heisey, and any two minor leaguers. It would still be worth it - but not just for this year. I'm thinking of a long term rotation consisting of Greinke, Cueto, Volquez, Chapman, and Leake. Leake as a 5th starter? Sign me up.

In the end, the Reds have done a remarkable job of drafting over the past few years. Making a big splash for an ace requires a bit of faith that this trend can continue. The question is, are we happy with simply having a shot to make the playoffs? Or, do we want to be World Series contenders for a solid 3-5 year window? I say empty the cupboard and let's have some fun.

[GIDP]

Might be. .338 is still crappy for a lead off hitter. But for now it's our best bet. Stubbs is the problem here. He lost the game tonight by not even making contact with less than 2 outs and the bases loaded.

Didn't Hannigan come up and get a double right after that?

[powersackers]

Didn't Hannigan come up and get a double right after that?

I believe he did, now imagine an inning where Stubbs actually looked like a professional hitter and got the easy run in, then Hanigan hits that same double. Now we are leading instead of tied.