Paul Janish for SS v.DonthurrybackCabrera

[GIDP]

I really really hope Paul gets a chance to see more playing time once Cabrera comes back. There is really no doubt in my mind hes the better defensive player, and I'm really starting to question if its really even close offensively. I know Cabrera is having a bad year, and if Cabrera was having a more typical one I might not care as much.

In his short sample size Paul Janish has hit since Cabrera went on the DL
.282/.349/.385. Its a small sample size for sure but I can put a little stock in it for reasons that basically its a pretty straight forward line to go with his pretty straight forward stat totals

44 PA
9 singles
1 double
1 home run
2 strike outs
4BB and 1 IBB
.279 BABIP

In all honesty they are pretty normal stats for what Paul Janish should hit. I did a post the other day that showed how Janish could possibly hit if he cut back his infield pop ups and turned a couple of those into hits. Of course hes still doing it a little but over all he has put good wood on the bat.

I think his average probably settles in around .250 and his OBP around .330 but even still hes going to be such a better option at SS that I really really dont want Cabrera back, and its not just a feeling any more. I think Janish has some what proved it this year even with the small sample size.

[Reds]

Do we make him BB the rest of the year then?

http://a323.yahoofs.com/ymg/ept_sports_mlb_experts__61/ept_sports_mlb_experts-818643162-1281957667.jpg?ymkMrnDD5xeZihy8

http://a323.yahoofs.com/ymg/ept_sports_mlb_experts__61/ept_sports_mlb_experts-894360505-1281958375.jpg?ymoXrnDDHBUIg_1Y

[sivman17]

Do we make him BB the rest of the year then?

Yes. He might be the most over qualified bat boy in the league, but I think it's the right job for him. Janish is a better all around SS.

[mattfeet]

Ill tell ya what, that was a VERY neat thing for oCab to do, being the BB for the day. For as much crap as he gets on here, he has an outstandingly positive attitude.

Furthermore, I think his defensive skills (or lack thereof), while not as good as Janish's, are sorely underestimated by us on RedsZone, as well as the media. Janish is most certainly the better defender, and the offensive numbers are a wash, IMO. With that being said, I am enjoying having oCab on the team, whether he's the starting SS or the BB, you can tell he's a good influence on the rest of the guys.


-Matt

[Trace's Daddy]

I say have them split time at SS.

[GIDP]

At the very least Janish should play when Leake, Volquez are on the mound.

[redsfan_12]

It's amazing at how much Janish has improved at the plate. I guess they'll pick up Ocabs option for next year? Even though i don't think they should

[Vottomatic]

Ill tell ya what, that was a VERY neat thing for oCab to do, being the BB for the day. For as much crap as he gets on here, he has an outstandingly positive attitude.

Furthermore, I think his defensive skills (or lack thereof), while not as good as Janish's, are sorely underestimated by us on RedsZone, as well as the media. Janish is most certainly the better defender, and the offensive numbers are a wash, IMO. With that being said, I am enjoying having oCab on the team, whether he's the starting SS or the BB, you can tell he's a good influence on the rest of the guys.


-Matt

I give OCab alot of crap, but I thought that was really cool, him being BB and all.

[Texas Pete]

I like Janish's skill set a lot, but I wonder what his long term potential is.

[Dale4Saul2Red0]

OP way off on this one

[GIDP]

OP way off on this one
A very strong rebuttal.

[Dale4Saul2Red0]

A very strong rebuttal.

Your post wasn't worthy of a rebuttal. You are grasping at strings to try and prove your point.

[Jr's Boy]

Janish is a great backup,and who knows how he would do in the long term?I like OC better though.I don't know why it seems OC has turn into the Sundeck whipping boy.

[DocRed]

Honestly I think that the 2 guys are about a wash, although I would still want Ocab in there if I had to chose.

[takealeake]

Your post wasn't worthy of a rebuttal. You are grasping at strings to try and prove your point.

He gave you statistics to back up his point. I wouldn't call that strings. Personally I think Janish is better, but Cabrera probably provides that veteran leadership that makes others around him better.

[GIDP]

Janish is a great backup,and who knows how he would do in the long term?I like OC better though.I don't know why it seems OC has turn into the Sundeck whipping boy.

whipping boy? I dont think I'm really bashing the guy here or saying anything unfair.

[texasdave]

Some more numbers that probably aren't worthy of a rebuttal:

WAR:http://www.fangraphs.com/winss.aspx?team=Reds&pos=all&stats=bat&qual=0&type=6&season=2010&month=0



NAME IP WAR
CABRERA 874 1.1
JANISH 174 0.7


If Janish has the playing time of OCab, and continues to play at his same level, his WAR is 3.5. Speculative in nature, I understand.


RZR data for N.L. shortstops who have played more than 150 innings this season:http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=fld&lg=nl&qual=n&type=1&season=2010&month=0



Name Inn BIZ Plays RZR
Paul Janish 183 50 47 0.940
Jimmy Rollins 503 144 125 0.868
Brendan Ryan 783 257 220 0.856
Clint Barmes 329 103 88 0.854
Rafael Furcal 640 211 179 0.848
Edgar Renteria 477 123 104 0.846
Orlando Cabrera 874 245 204 0.833


A couple comments. OCab has a fine RZR, but Janish's is ridiculous. At the above rates Paul Janish is fielding one out every ten balls in the zone MORE than Orlando Cabrera. Sure it is a small sample size but what else do we have to go on? So take a look at the career numbers for Paul Janish - a more representative view of his fielding ability. His career RZR is .871. That still would lead the league. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7412&position=SS

Here is a look at the three-year RZR numbers for all major league shortstops who have played in 950 innings or more:http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=950&type=1&season=2010&month=12



Name Inn BIZ Plays RZR*
Paul Janish 980 317 276 0.871
Michael Young 1289 426 362 0.850
Brendan Ryan 1869 653 553 0.847
Elvis Andrus 2228 660 556 0.842
Adam Everett 1536 447 376 0.841
J.J. Hardy 2798 836 702 0.840
Nick Punto 1249 371 311 0.838
Cesar Izturis 2850 879 735 0.836
Jack Wilson 2132 681 568 0.834
Ramon Santiago 1255 365 304 0.833
Orlando Cabrera 3652 1106 891 0.806


Once again the name at the top, by a comfortable margin, is Paul Janish. Incidentally, OCab was ranked 31st. I just stuck him on there for comparison purposes.

Between the two, 295 balls have passed through the shortstop zone. If OCab fielded them at his current 2010 rate he would field 246 of them. Janish would field 277 of them at his 2010 rate. Plus 31 if you are keeping track at home. If you used his career rate, Janish would field 257 of them. Plus 11.

In Paul Janish's case, the defense never rests.

[bagz]

I think Janish deserves to start. He's hitting the ball a lot better this year. He's better on defense than Ocab. I just wouldn't bat him second. But you know Dusty. Ocab certainly has a great attitude and is a great influence for our young players. I'd like to have him stay with the team for 2011 as a reserve.

[redssince75]

Ill tell ya what, that was a VERY neat thing for oCab to do, being the BB for the day.

The real batboy sure doesn't look like he thinks so, lol.

[takealeake]

Some more numbers that probably aren't worthy of a rebuttal:

WAR:http://www.fangraphs.com/winss.aspx?team=Reds&pos=all&stats=bat&qual=0&type=6&season=2010&month=0



If Janish has the playing time of OCab, and continues to play at his same level, his WAR is 3.5. Speculative in nature, I understand.


RZR data for N.L. shortstops who have played more than 150 innings this season:http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=fld&lg=nl&qual=n&type=1&season=2010&month=0



A couple comments. OCab has a fine RZR, but Janish's is ridiculous. At the above rates Paul Janish is fielding one out every ten balls in the zone MORE than Orlando Cabrera. Sure it is a small sample size but what else do we have to go on? So take a look at the career numbers for Paul Janish - a more representative view of his fielding ability. His career RZR is .871. That still would lead the league. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7412&position=SS

Here is a look at the three-year RZR numbers for all major league shortstops who have played in 950 innings or more:http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=950&type=1&season=2010&month=12



Once again the name at the top, by a comfortable margin, is Paul Janish. Incidentally, OCab was ranked 31st. I just stuck him on there for comparison purposes.

Between the two, 295 balls have passed through the shortstop zone. If OCab fielded them at his current 2010 rate he would field 246 of them. Janish would field 277 of them at his 2010 rate. Plus 31 if you are keeping track at home. If you used his career rate, Janish would field 257 of them. Plus 11.

In Paul Janish's case, the defense never rests.

There was a big play he had the other day where he fielded a ball in short left and gunned it to first to get a big out, that I believe kept a run from scoring. There was no way, no how that Cabrera would have made the play, he doesn't have the arm, nor range to do it.

[GIDP]

If Cabreras bat was what most of us expected I wouldnt hold my opinion that Janish should start more often.

Janish hitting .250 is probably already a equal offensive player. No one can really debate the gloves unless they try to say stuff like "captain of the D" and basic nonsense like that.

[Dale4Saul2Red0]

He gave you statistics to back up his point. I wouldn't call that strings. Personally I think Janish is better, but Cabrera probably provides that veteran leadership that makes others around him better.

Small sample statistics don't mean anything to me. *cough* Emilio Bonifacio 2009 *cough*. Do it over the longevity and then come talk to me, but if you do want to talk about small samples Janish is hitting like .200 since his 3 hit game vs the Pirates.

His defensive upgrade isn't large enough over a still solid glove in O Cab to warrant playing him over Cabrera when he is healthy. O Cab still has the better bat 7 days a week.

[GIDP]

Someone missed every thing in my post apparently.

[takealeake]

Someone missed every thing in my post apparently.

The defense of substandard player is amazing. He's in the other thread defending Cordero as well. Some people just hold their ears (or eyes in this case) and yell "la la la la" no matter what stats you provide them with.

[GIDP]

Nothing in my post said that I'm putting a ton of stock into the sample size. I simply said it shouldnt be totally discounted because in all honesty the stats, and the peripheral numbers are basically in line with what he normally hits.

He probably drops to around .240 - .260 with the bat and with his walk rates, and K rates probably ends up around .330 OBP give or take .010 points.

There is taking a simple size and then there is looking at it a little deeper and suggesting that it really isnt that far off. I think someone just doesnt care to understand it other than bash someones post and trash it with nothing to really back it up than made up negatives against it.

[Reds]

I want Orlando back and playing 60% of the time with Janish getting the other 40%. I think both can help the team win.

[davereds24]

I'll take OCab against a great pitcher 100% of the time. Against the Cards it seemed all Janish could do was hit a foul pop out.

That being said he does deserve a couple starts a week in September.