Trading Quantity for Quality

[BoilerBC11]

Don't get me wrong, I'm having a blast following this years team, but I can't help but be excited for this offseason and what all moves we are going to make to make this success sustainable.

Currently we are in a position where we have A LOT of solid players, however we don't have a lot of positions that will need filled. So I guess the question is, whats better to have, great depth, or great players?

Here are our players for next year that I feel deserve starting:

C- Hernandez
Hanigan
Mesoraco

1B- Votto (Best in the Business)
Yonder

2B- Phillips (Best in the Business)
Valaika

SS- Cozart
Janish

3B- Rolen (Best in the Business, but is getting old)
Fransisco

RF- Bruce (Great Potential)

CF- Stubbs

LF- Heisey
Frazier

SP- Cueto (Solid 2)
SP- Volquez ( Solid 2)
SP- Arroyo (Solid 3 and good veteran presence)
SP- Bailey (Solid 3)
SP- Leake (3)
SP- Wood (3)
SP- Chapman (1-4?)

In my opinion, we need to cash in on this talent and make a few upgrades. Because I value quality over quantity.

Here are some trades I would consider:

Leake + Bailey + Frazier for Zach Grienke or Felix Hernandez

Yonder + Cozart + Prospect for Jose Reyes

What are some trades you would make? Or would you rather stand tight and keep our outstanding depth?

[brm7675]

I don't trade Leake and i don't want Reyes...



Don't get me wrong, I'm having a blast following this years team, but I can't help but be excited for this offseason and what all moves we are going to make to make this success sustainable.

Currently we are in a position where we have A LOT of solid players, however we don't have a lot of positions that will need filled. So I guess the question is, whats better to have, great depth, or great players?

Here are our players for next year that I feel deserve starting:

C- Hernandez
Hanigan
Mesoraco

1B- Votto (Best in the Business)
Yonder

2B- Phillips (Best in the Business)
Valaika

SS- Cozart
Janish

3B- Rolen (Best in the Business, but is getting old)
Fransisco

RF- Bruce (Great Potential)

CF- Stubbs

LF- Heisey
Frazier

SP- Cueto (Solid 2)
SP- Volquez ( Solid 2)
SP- Arroyo (Solid 3 and good veteran presence)
SP- Bailey (Solid 3)
SP- Leake (3)
SP- Wood (3)
SP- Chapman (1-4?)

In my opinion, we need to cash in on this talent and make a few upgrades. Because I value quality over quantity.

Here are some trades I would consider:

Leake + Bailey + Frazier for Zach Grienke or Felix Hernandez

Yonder + Cozart + Prospect for Jose Reyes

What are some trades you would make? Or would you rather stand tight and keep our outstanding depth?

[ThornWithin81]

I don't think our depth is as outstanding as you represent it being.

Just IMO.

[scott91575]

While young players for a proven vets sounds great, this team is going to be up against it's salary limit again next year.

If Arroyo's option is picked up look for this team to have the salary increase by over $10 million. With this season and hopefully a bump in season tickets next year they can probably handle that bump, but anything more is asking a lot.

Votto, Bruce, and Cueto are all arbitration eligible at the end of this year. Those 3 will eat up more than Harang's salary (they will end up costing over $20 million vs. next to nothing right now). Then in 2012 they will get another bump, and another round of young players hit arbitration. Those will eat into the Cordero and Arroyo money.

The Reds simply do not have the ability to take on a $10+ million player over any extended period if they plan on keeping the young, proven talent in house. The best hope is to have the young, unproven talent play at a high level while they sign the young, proven talent to long term deals.

BTW...I would in no way trade for Reyes. He is only signed through next year, and is an injury risk. Felix Hernandez's has HUGE contract numbers in 2012 through 2014, and I don't see the Mariners trading him at this point anyway. Greinke, maybe. Yet I am not sure KC is looking to deal him, and I would be more inclined to hope Leake and/or Bailey can pitch at the same level while getting paid a lot less.

[brm7675]

Votto will get a nice jump in pay, Cueto a decent one, but given the overall poor numbers for Bruce, I don't see him getting a huge raise. I also see our payroll moving up into the mid 90's next season.


While young players for a proven vets sounds great, this team is going to be up against it's salary limit again next year.

If Arroyo's option is picked up look for this team to have the salary increase by over $10 million. With this season and hopefully a bump in season tickets next year they can probably handle that bump, but anything more is asking a lot.

Votto, Bruce, and Cueto are all arbitration eligible at the end of this year. Those 3 will eat up more than Harang's salary (they will end up costing over $20 million vs. next to nothing right now). Then in 2012 they will get another bump, and another round of young players hit arbitration. Those will eat into the Cordero and Arroyo money.

The Reds simply do not have the ability to take on a $10+ million player over any extended period if they plan on keeping the young, proven talent in house. The best hope is to have the young, unproven talent play at a high level while they sign the young, proven talent to long term deals.

BTW...I would in no way trade for Reyes. He is only signed through next year, and is an injury risk. Felix Hernandez's has HUGE contract numbers in 2012 through 2014, and I don't see the Mariners trading him at this point anyway. Greinke, maybe. Yet I am not sure KC is looking to deal him, and I would be more inclined to hope Leake and/or Bailey can pitch at the same level while getting paid a lot less.

[1990REDS]

Votto will get a nice jump in pay, Cueto a decent one, but given the overall poor numbers for Bruce, I don't see him getting a huge raise. I also see our payroll moving up into the mid 90's next season.

So you think ownership is going to add roughly 25 mill to payroll next year? I think were in like the 71 mill range this year. I dont see that happening.

[gedred69]

While young players for a proven vets sounds great, this team is going to be up against it's salary limit again next year.

If Arroyo's option is picked up look for this team to have the salary increase by over $10 million. With this season and hopefully a bump in season tickets next year they can probably handle that bump, but anything more is asking a lot.

Votto, Bruce, and Cueto are all arbitration eligible at the end of this year. Those 3 will eat up more than Harang's salary (they will end up costing over $20 million vs. next to nothing right now). Then in 2012 they will get another bump, and another round of young players hit arbitration. Those will eat into the Cordero and Arroyo money.

The Reds simply do not have the ability to take on a $10+ million player over any extended period if they plan on keeping the young, proven talent in house. The best hope is to have the young, unproven talent play at a high level while they sign the young, proven talent to long term deals.

BTW...I would in no way trade for Reyes. He is only signed through next year, and is an injury risk. Felix Hernandez's has HUGE contract numbers in 2012 through 2014, and I don't see the Mariners trading him at this point anyway. Greinke, maybe. Yet I am not sure KC is looking to deal him, and I would be more inclined to hope Leake and/or Bailey can pitch at the same level while getting paid a lot less.

Good post. The part about hope to have the young talent play at a high level is the Minnesota model that has worked very, very well.

[scott91575]

Votto will get a nice jump in pay, Cueto a decent one, but given the overall poor numbers for Bruce, I don't see him getting a huge raise. I also see our payroll moving up into the mid 90's next season.

Bruce will still get over $2 million. Hermida got over $3 million, and he sucks worse than Bruce (although it was not Hermida's first venture into arbitration). BJ Upton got $3 million after a year worse than Bruce, but he did have better previous years.

Cueto should easily get over $3 and probably in the $4 million dollar range.

Votto is going to be over $10 million.

So perhaps my $20 million was high, yet it should be over $16 million. I fully expect the Reds to try and deal outside of arbitration, but much of that will be keeping those players salaries from escalating too much in their 2nd and 3rd time through arbitration, and hopefully into free agency (meaning 4+ year deal). So everything is just a guesstimate anyway.

Yet my point still stands....this team will not be looking to add payroll next year unless it's a trade deadline deal and the other teams kicks in some cash.

I also think $90 million is too high. More in the $80 million range which they are going to be right in that neighborhood if Arroyo's option is picked up.

edit: missed Volquez, so that $20 is closer to the actual number.

[scott91575]

So you think ownership is going to add roughly 25 mill to payroll next year? I think were in like the 71 mill range this year. I dont see that happening.

I think they are just over $68 this year. I think $80 million will be the ballpark (see above post).

[1990REDS]

I think they are just over $68 this year. I think $80 million will be the ballpark (see above post).

ya i was thinking maybe in the 75 to 80 mill range as well. with 80 being the absolute cieling.

[BoilerBC11]

ya i was thinking maybe in the 75 to 80 mill range as well. with 80 being the absolute cieling.

I hope our ownership can see how close this team is to competing for a WS, and goes out and spends some money. The Reds have to keep this buzz going so that we can continue to put butts in the seats.

We have the 4th largest TV and Radio audiences, so if we can keep putting people in the stands, we should be able to afford a payroll up around 90 million.

[1990REDS]

I hope our ownership can see how close this team is to competing for a WS, and goes out and spends some money. The Reds have to keep this buzz going so that we can continue to put butts in the seats.

We have the 4th largest TV and Radio audiences, so if we can keep putting people in the stands, we should be able to afford a payroll up around 90 million.

dont get me wrong, i would love to be up in that range. I just dont think ive ever heard of a team outside of newyork or boston adding 20 mill+ in payroll over a offseason.

[757690]

Bruce will still get over $2 million. Hermida got over $3 million, and he sucks worse than Bruce (although it was not Hermida's first venture into arbitration). BJ Upton got $3 million after a year worse than Bruce, but he did have better previous years.

Cueto should easily get over $3 and probably in the $4 million dollar range.

Votto is going to be over $10 million.

So perhaps my $20 million was high, yet it should be over $16 million. I fully expect the Reds to try and deal outside of arbitration, but much of that will be keeping those players salaries from escalating too much in their 2nd and 3rd time through arbitration, and hopefully into free agency (meaning 4+ year deal). So everything is just a guesstimate anyway.

Yet my point still stands....this team will not be looking to add payroll next year unless it's a trade deadline deal and the other teams kicks in some cash.

I also think $90 million is too high. More in the $80 million range which they are going to be right in that neighborhood if Arroyo's option is picked up.

edit: missed Volquez, so that $20 is closer to the actual number.

If the Reds roster stays the same, and the arbitration eligible players get $16M total in the offseason, the Reds will still have at least $10M to spend on improvements, if the payroll stays at $76M which is where it is at this season.

I suggest this website to find all the facts about the Reds payroll and individual players contracts:

Cot's Baseball Contracts (http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005/01/cincinnati-reds_24.html)

BTW, no way Votto gets over $7M next season. In fact, he probably will get less, especially if he signs some sort of long term, backloaded deal, which is very likely.

[scott91575]

If the Reds roster stays the same, and the arbitration eligible players get $16M total in the offseason, the Reds will still have at least $10M to spend on improvements, if the payroll stays at $76M which is where it is at this season.

I suggest this website to find all the facts about the Reds payroll and individual players contracts:

Cot's Baseball Contracts (http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005/01/cincinnati-reds_24.html)

BTW, no way Votto gets over $7M next season. In fact, he probably will get less, especially if he signs some sort of long term, backloaded deal, which is very likely.

If Votto actually wins the MVP, he will be similar to Ryan Howard in 2008. He got $10 million in his first arbitration year. If he does sign a back loaded deal, great. Yet right now I am not making those assumptions. I am going by past arbitration cases.

As for that chart, that next year is assuming no option is picked up. It also doesn't include min salary players that will certainly be there. That is another 4 or 5 million. I also did not include all the arbitration players (and neither does that chart). It could easily be $20 million for all the arbitration players. If you pick up Arroyo's option and Hernandez's option, that is another 14+ million. I, like that chart, am assuming Cabrera is bought out. So $20+14+5+42.7 (from the chart) is 81.7 million. No, they do not have $10 million to play with to match this years salary. The 2011 year is making tons of assumptions (essentially no option picked up), and does not include any of the min salaries or arbitration salaries.

Now, if you say they shouldn't sign Arroyo and Hernandez, then you can say they have some money to play with. Yet that is only for 2011. The salaries will escalate again in 2012 and eat up much that money. Then more guys hit arbitration, and that cuts into Cordero's money that is freed up (not sure if Phillips option will be picked up).

It's a never ending story, but in essence if you keep Arroyo and Hernandez then salary increases next year for essentially the same team (Cabrera, Harang, etc. gone, but nothing major). Then in 2012 it will free up some, but once again, the continued escalation will make it very similar.

In the end, if the Reds add a $10+ million guy for any length of time they will be jumping the team payroll a fair amount. On top of all that, those are just hope trades. I am not sure anyone would actually make them. So while they may sound great and could maybe be squeezed into the salary, it doesn't mean they are a real possibility. Although there is no effing way the Reds take on Felix's contract. Greinke, maybe.

[MikeThierry]

I'm just wondering, do the Reds receive any money in revenue sharing? If so, how much do you think they get?

[davereds24]

I'm just wondering, do the Reds receive any money in revenue sharing? If so, how much do you think they get?

I don't think they release the number but I believe most assume the Reds get about $20-30mil

[scott91575]

I'm just wondering, do the Reds receive any money in revenue sharing? If so, how much do you think they get?

That data is not shared, but some did leak out a few years ago. Florida and Pittsburgh made a ton in revenue sharing. It made both of them very profitable (in fact the Marlins are believed to be the most profitable organization). I think the largest ever leaked was the Devil Rays got over $30 million in 2006, but that is on the high end and not the norm. I would guess the Reds get a few million, maybe above $10 million. Yet as revenues rise, along with salary, that number gets reduced. Maybe at one point the Reds were getting $20 million, but I doubt they make that level anymore.

edit: Oops, I am not on top of things. Just recently the Pirates numbers were leaked. They got almost $40 million in revenue sharing in 2008.

[MikeThierry]

Well, as long as its not a David Glass type situation where the Reds are just sitting back and taking the money while purposely putting out a bad product.

I think maybe the revenue sharing might help alleviate some of these costs for the players.

[Vottomatic]

This organization is built to reload. They re-established their farm system to keep reloading. They will sign longterm the guys they think deserve it and are cornerstone's to the team (Votto), but I look for them to be frugal for the most part and always be replenishing the major league roster with a good farm system.

However, I do think Walt and Bob would pay for a #1 starter if they have the chance.

I don't see Gomes here next year. They have Heisey and Stubbs, and Dusty has proven that he will continue to play the slumping vet over the talented rookie. Management will have to remove Gomes as a Dusty option. I see Heisey, Bruce, Stubbs, and then Nix (if he returns), and possibly Danny Dorn, Sappelt, or someone else..........given the chance to win the 5th starting spot out of ST. And there's that outside chance that Edmonds gets another year.

I agree with the OP regarding unloading some of this triple A talent that is blocked by young major league players.

I would not bring back OCab next year, no matter how good he is for team chemistry. Just another vet that Dusty will play over the more talented young guy. Management needs to remember to remove these options from Dusty.

But then again, Dusty might not even be here. While I appreciate what he has done, he still drives me nuts with some of the moves he makes. I still feel like this team has won DESPITE DUSTY rather then because of him. Sorry.

Plus, this organization has 40-man roster problems right now. Obviously Harang will be bought out and allowed to walk. I would let Gomes and OCab walk too. We have plenty of outfielders and Janish has proven to me he is as capable of playing as well (better, IMHO) as the aging OCab. That frees up 3 spots on the 40 man.

And the offseason is complicated even more by the fact that like 6 to 8 players are arbitration eligible. That will jack up payroll quite a bit and may factor into decisions like keeping or letting Arroyo walk.

I also forgot that Lincoln will be gone after the season too. So that's 4 spots freed up.

[Jefferson24]

I wouldn't consider moving Bailey. After what we have seen the last few nights from the others he might be our 1 or 2 going into next year.

[Vottomatic]

I wouldn't consider moving Bailey. After what we have seen the last few nights from the others he might be our 1 or 2 going into next year.

Yeah, I've been ready to trade Homer several times and then we go through a stretch like this and I change my mind.

[757690]

If Votto actually wins the MVP, he will be similar to Ryan Howard in 2008. He got $10 million in his first arbitration year. If he does sign a back loaded deal, great. Yet right now I am not making those assumptions. I am going by past arbitration cases.

As for that chart, that next year is assuming no option is picked up. It also doesn't include min salary players that will certainly be there. That is another 4 or 5 million. I also did not include all the arbitration players (and neither does that chart). It could easily be $20 million for all the arbitration players. If you pick up Arroyo's option and Hernandez's option, that is another 14+ million. I, like that chart, am assuming Cabrera is bought out. So $20+14+5+42.7 (from the chart) is 81.7 million. No, they do not have $10 million to play with to match this years salary. The 2011 year is making tons of assumptions (essentially no option picked up), and does not include any of the min salaries or arbitration salaries.

Now, if you say they shouldn't sign Arroyo and Hernandez, then you can say they have some money to play with. Yet that is only for 2011. The salaries will escalate again in 2012 and eat up much that money. Then more guys hit arbitration, and that cuts into Cordero's money that is freed up (not sure if Phillips option will be picked up).

It's a never ending story, but in essence if you keep Arroyo and Hernandez then salary increases next year for essentially the same team (Cabrera, Harang, etc. gone, but nothing major). Then in 2012 it will free up some, but once again, the continued escalation will make it very similar.

In the end, if the Reds add a $10+ million guy for any length of time they will be jumping the team payroll a fair amount. On top of all that, those are just hope trades. I am not sure anyone would actually make them. So while they may sound great and could maybe be squeezed into the salary, it doesn't mean they are a real possibility. Although there is no effing way the Reds take on Felix's contract. Greinke, maybe.

Good analysis.

But one major disagreement.

Howard's $10M win was an anomaly, imo, salaries were much higher league wise then.

Here is an excellent analysis of Votto's 2011 salary expectations from MLBTR:

Votto's 2011 Salary (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/08/joey-vottos-2011-salary.html)

The conclusion it makes is that Votto might make as much as $7M.

But you are right, that if the Reds pick up Hernandez's and Arroyo's options, they will have little to spend, if they don't bump up the payroll. But that actually gives the Reds more flexibility this off season. They can check the waters and see if they can improve on either of those two either via trade or free agency for less money. If they can, then they don't pick up the option. If they can't then they do, and the extra payroll is spent on keeping Hernandez and Arroyo.

Imo, I think there is no way they keep Hernandez. Hanigan is proving that he can handle the majors just fine, and a back up, or platoon for him should come pretty cheap.

Arroyo is another matter. He would be worth the $11M, but he would also prevent the team from acquiring a true Ace. It's a tough call, but I think if the Reds find that they can pick up a true Ace for the staff, they do it and not pick up Arroyo.

I'm not worried about 2012. A billion things can and will happen between now and then that will make any thoughts about it pretty meaningless.

[scott91575]

Good analysis.

But one major disagreement.

Howard's $10M win was an anomaly, imo, salaries were much higher league wise then.

Here is an excellent analysis of Votto's 2011 salary expectations from MLBTR:

Votto's 2011 Salary (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/08/joey-vottos-2011-salary.html)

The conclusion it makes is that Votto might make as much as $7M.

I cannot agree with any of that analysis. Those players, except Howard, signed deals to avoid arbitration and/or occurred prior to Howard's arbitration case (Cabrera went to arbitration and won, but that was a year before Howard). Plus he includes player's that signed multi year deals in their arbitration years....apples to oranges. One player he relies on, Morneau, agreed to terms for a 1 year deal to avoid arbitration. It was a horrible decision on Morneau's part (and I assume his agent ended up looking like an idiot).

Howard actually went to arbitration, asked for $10 million, and won. It changed the game because no one expected him to get that. If those other players knew Howard would get $10 million you can bet they would have asked for and gotten more money. On top of that, baseball salaries are very similar (and I believe actually a little higher) than in 2008.

If Votto signs a long term deal I totally agree he will probably be in the $7 million range next year. Yet if he goes to arbitration I am willing to bet he will be asking around $10 million, and he may very well get it (heck, no one knows what Howard could have actually gotten....$10 million may not have been the high water mark).

Now, if Votto doesn't win the MVP then that will knock him down a bit. Then he will be looking at something similar to Prince Fielder. He asked for $8 million, and eventually signed a 2 year deal for an average just over $9 million per year. His first year salary was $6.5 million. So Votto could end up in the $7 million dollar range with a similar deal. Yet my guess is without a MVP award he will be asking for $8-9 million, and with it $9-10 million. Those are reasonable numbers and I think he could win.

[webbbj]

any chance phillips moves to SS to put valaika at 2nd?

and Yonder needs a position, what is management doing to insure him a spot somewhere? could he be traded if one isnt available?

rotation next year. maybe its just me but everyone else seems to have leake already in the 5 man rotation. chances he plays minor league ball next year? especially if arroyo comes back.

what about chapman? if he proves good enough will his arm be ready for a whole season of starting pitcher innings?

[Jefferson24]

Imo, I think there is no way they keep Hernandez. Hanigan is proving that he can handle the majors just fine, and a back up, or platoon for him should come pretty cheap.



I think they keep Hernandez because he is spanish speaking as is many of the pitching staff, this will be all the more true with the arrival of Chapman. If they don't keep him who would fill those shoes, Miller? Mesoraco will not be ready by spring of 11.

[Vottomatic]

According to Cot's Baseball Contracts, the following players are arbitration eligible this offseason:

Jared Burton (currently makes $810,000 this year)
Laynce Nix
Joey Votto
Johnny Cueto
Edinson Volquez
Jay Bruce
Micah Owings (released)
Bill Bray

Free Agents:
Arthur Rhodes ($2M in '10)
Mike Lincoln ($2.5 in '10)
Miguel Cairo (made $500,000 this year)

Options for next year:
Harang - for $12.5M or $2M buyout
Arroyo - $12.25M or $2M buyout
Hernandez - $3M
Cabrera - $3M or $1M buyout
Gomes - $1.2M

[Vottomatic]

According to Cot's Baseball Contracts, the following players are arbitration eligible this offseason:

Jared Burton (currently makes $810,000 this year)
Laynce Nix
Joey Votto
Johnny Cueto
Edinson Volquez
Jay Bruce
Micah Owings (released)
Bill Bray

Free Agents:
Arthur Rhodes ($2M in '10)
Mike Lincoln ($2.5 in '10)
Miguel Cairo (made $500,000 this year)

Options for next year:
Harang - for $12.5M or $2M buyout
Arroyo - $12.25M or $2M buyout
Hernandez - $3M
Cabrera - $3M or $1M buyout
Gomes - $1.2M

Votto, Cueto and Bruce are the only ones I really see getting significant raises in arbitration.

That leaves Burton, Nix, Volquez and Bray. I think the Reds take their chances with Volquez in arbitration.......he won't get much coming off TJ surgery and posting mediocre or worse results. Nix will probably be released and if no interest from other clubs, re-signed like last year. Same with Burton and Bray, although I'd see neither getting much in arbitration.

[scott91575]

Votto, Cueto and Bruce are the only ones I really see getting significant raises in arbitration.

That leaves Burton, Nix, Volquez and Bray. I think the Reds take their chances with Volquez in arbitration.......he won't get much coming off TJ surgery and posting mediocre or worse results. Nix will probably be released and if no interest from other clubs, re-signed like last year. Same with Burton and Bray, although I'd see neither getting much in arbitration.

I don't think they will release Bray. Even though he hasn't been great, young lefty relievers are very overvalued. Someone will pick him up.