Player expectations this year?

[webbbj]

I kinda feel though that the young players: stubbs, bruce, volquez, cueto, leake, bailey, wood, janish, hanigan will have better years.

Votto: the rock much of the same

Rolen: I think takes a step back but still very productive. Hoping for a more consistent year than the huge 1st half and decent dropoff in the 2nd half.

Ramon: i think takes a step back aswell but not huge but hanigan picks up the slack

Gomes: total wildcard have no idea.
Renteria: serviceable
Fred Lewis: dont know what to expect but hoping for a pleasant surprise
Heisey: kinda like gomes i really dont know
Chapman: Dominance or inconsistency?
Cordero: same guy
Bray: left handed specialist?
Masset: ready to dominate a whole year?
Phillips and Arroyo: Just do their thing
Alonso: show me flashes of brilliance?

Dontrelle? I dont even know if this guy will make the roster but i'll root hard for him I was a big fan when he was in FLA.

Okay despite all this Im not sure it will result in more wins. Tougher division, and tougher inter league schedule could trump some player improvement.

[Krawhitham]

Rolen: I think takes a step back but still very productive. Hoping for a more consistent year than the huge 1st half and decent dropoff in the 2nd half.



he had 3 HR and 26 RBI in the 2nd half last year, I think that is about the production we will see next year.

9-12 HR
50-70 RBI


Francisco is see more playing time than Baker will like this season and will be the starting 3rd baseman in 2012

not only did his bat go south in the 2nd half, he defense was also horrible

[Kiss the Baby00]

im also in the camp that Rolen will be near useless. I began to call him "grandpa" in the second half of the season last year and i believe that nickname is perfect. Hopefully dusty isnt afraid to go to juan. I think rolen would be better suited to be the backup and 2-3 day a week player and let JFran get the bulk of the action at 3rd.

[Vottomatic]

I'm interested to see what kind of shape Scott arrives in, for Spring Training.

[webbbj]

i kinda thought rolen was just worn down in the 2nd half being used too much but out of necessity.

I think he comes in refreshed but should be used differently this year to show a more consistent season. Last year he played 133 games. Start about 90 - 100 games this year I think he will be more lively the whole season.

[wlf WV]

Rolen was my concern also.He looked as if his back was bad all year and took it's toll second half.He looked stiff.I've had back problems and being thick in the middle mightily compounds them.As 'Mattic said it will be paramount for him to come and stay in shape.

[gedred69]

While I agree somewhat with everyone on Rolen, the key will be making him a part-timer. What I don't agree with others is this fixation with Francisco. He is a EE look alike type fielder, and he has serious holes in his approach at the plate ala Wily Mo type. I see the part-time 3B coming from the likes of a Valaika or Frazier, either of whom could be a +.275 bat, and a much more solid 3B.

[Kiss the Baby00]

While I agree somewhat with everyone on Rolen, the key will be making him a part-timer. What I don't agree with others is this fixation with Francisco. He is a EE look alike type fielder, and he has serious holes in his approach at the plate ala Wily Mo type. I see the part-time 3B coming from the likes of a Valaika or Frazier, either of whom could be a +.275 bat, and a much more solid 3B.

I do not understand where you get these baseless assumptions?

Valaika has played 3 career games at 3rd base and has 3 errors. Scratch that Idea.

As for Frazier being a .275 + hitter and Francisco not. JFran is a career .282 hitter in the minors while Frazier is a career .285. Francisco has a .302 avg in AAA while Frazier comes in at a whopping .263. I am not sure what about these numbers lead you to believe Frazier would hit .275 while JFran would get lost on his way to the batters box.

On the defensive side, Francisco has 9x the amount of games played at 3rd than Frazier with Frazier having only a slightly better fielding percentage.

Lastly. Power. Francisco hit 20+ HRs in 3 consecutive seasons in the minors and 18 in a shortened minor league stint in 2010(329 PAs). In the last three years Frazier hit 19,16 and 17, while having over 500 PAs all three years. Francisco could be a .275 hitter with 30+ HRs and a serviceable fielder for the next 5-7 years. And Francisco is younger.

Please explain to me how anything I have presented makes Juan Francisco look like EE in the field or Willy Mo at the plate, and how Valaika (LOOOOL) or Frazier would be better options?

[naptown]

For every player to work hard to improve on at least one weakness in their games.

[naptown]

im also in the camp that Rolen will be near useless.

Rolen is the ultimate professional. He could be on the DL all year and still be far from "near useless" to this young club.

[will5979]

Ok I pray ahrong Mongoians...

Janish-.266 2 Hrs 28 Rbis
Phillips-.280 25 Hrs 80 Rbis
Votto-.312 32 Hrs 115 Rbis
Rolen-.273 15 Hrs 73 Rbis
Bruce-.288 37 Hrs 110 Rbis
Stubbs-.272 22 Hrs 74 Rbis
Gomes-.260 20 Hrs 71 Rbis
Hernandez-.251 7 Hrs 45 Rbis

Arroyo 17-8 3.98 ERA
Cueto 14-11 4.34 ERA
Volquez 13-7 4.23 ERA
Wood 12-9 3.87 ERA
Bailey 10-8 4.66 ERA
Leake 8-9 4.53 ERA

[signalhome]

I do not understand where you get these baseless assumptions?

Valaika has played 3 career games at 3rd base and has 3 errors. Scratch that Idea.

As for Frazier being a .275 + hitter and Francisco not. JFran is a career .282 hitter in the minors while Frazier is a career .285. Francisco has a .302 avg in AAA while Frazier comes in at a whopping .263. I am not sure what about these numbers lead you to believe Frazier would hit .275 while JFran would get lost on his way to the batters box.

On the defensive side, Francisco has 9x the amount of games played at 3rd than Frazier with Frazier having only a slightly better fielding percentage.

Lastly. Power. Francisco hit 20+ HRs in 3 consecutive seasons in the minors and 18 in a shortened minor league stint in 2010(329 PAs). In the last three years Frazier hit 19,16 and 17, while having over 500 PAs all three years. Francisco could be a .275 hitter with 30+ HRs and a serviceable fielder for the next 5-7 years. And Francisco is younger.

Please explain to me how anything I have presented makes Juan Francisco look like EE in the field or Willy Mo at the plate, and how Valaika (LOOOOL) or Frazier would be better options?

My personal concern with Francisco is his pathetic walk rate (usually around 4%). He's likely going to hover around the .310-.320 range for OBP, which means to have value as a 3B he's gonna need to slug over .500 -- no simple feat. The reports I've read on his defense are underwhelming, so his defense is likely going to be a drag on his overall production. The kid's gonna have to post an overwhelming SLG to accommodate for his poor defense and poor OBP (unless he learns some patience). If he can do that, he can be an effective major leaguer, but otherwise I don't see him ever becoming anything better than just above-average.

[signalhome]

I do not understand where you get these baseless assumptions?

Valaika has played 3 career games at 3rd base and has 3 errors. Scratch that Idea.

As for Frazier being a .275 + hitter and Francisco not. JFran is a career .282 hitter in the minors while Frazier is a career .285. Francisco has a .302 avg in AAA while Frazier comes in at a whopping .263. I am not sure what about these numbers lead you to believe Frazier would hit .275 while JFran would get lost on his way to the batters box.

On the defensive side, Francisco has 9x the amount of games played at 3rd than Frazier with Frazier having only a slightly better fielding percentage.

Lastly. Power. Francisco hit 20+ HRs in 3 consecutive seasons in the minors and 18 in a shortened minor league stint in 2010(329 PAs). In the last three years Frazier hit 19,16 and 17, while having over 500 PAs all three years. Francisco could be a .275 hitter with 30+ HRs and a serviceable fielder for the next 5-7 years. And Francisco is younger.

Please explain to me how anything I have presented makes Juan Francisco look like EE in the field or Willy Mo at the plate, and how Valaika (LOOOOL) or Frazier would be better options?

And I'm not sure why you're attacking the guy you quoted. He simply said Francisco is considered a poor fielder (he is) and that he has major holes in his swing (he does). He never said Valaika or Frazier would hit for a better average. He said they would likely hit around .275 (probably a bit high, but still) while providing better defense. I'm unsure about Valaika, but to me Frazier is unquestionably the better option at this point in their careers. He has posted a much superior OBP while giving up little SLG to Francisco.

[Roush's socks]

I agree with the question marks about Rolen. His 2nd half drop off could be a sign of things to come. But it is also possible that after a little rest his back and other issues will improve.
These are some of the things I'm looking forward to-

Will Bruce and Stubbs pick up where they left off last year and continue tearing it up at the plate and in the field? If they can sustain that level they will give the Reds a solid outfield even if LF is mediocre.

Will Janish play good enough to keep Renteria from getting most of the playing time at SS? I think Edgar has a little left in the tank and can contribute at 3B too if needed.

The biggest questions are in the rotation where 6 guys are competing for 5 spots. With Cueto, Bailey, Wood, and Volquez all capable of being a dominant starter, the Reds have a lot to look forward to. Volquez could be back to 2008 form which would put him in the top 5 NL pitchers, plus he needs a big season to get paid next year.

Votto? Can he continue at the 1.000 OPS level? That is a high standard but he seemed so consistent last year it is hard to see him dropping off very far.

If Cordero takes a step back from last year, where he was already pretty shaky, will the Reds try Massett or even Chapman as the closer? Maybe Cordero gets in shape and has a good year. He will be looking for a new contract soon so he might put in more effort. I think he still has some juice left.

[bounty37h]

he had 3 HR and 26 RBI in the 2nd half last year, I think that is about the production we will see next year.

9-12 HR
50-70 RBI


Francisco is see more playing time than Baker will like this season and will be the starting 3rd baseman in 2012

not only did his bat go south in the 2nd half, he defense was also horrible

I do hope to be way wrong, but I think if Francisco is our 3'rd baseman we are taking a step back again and into EdE-type inconsistant play.

[gedred69]

To bounty37H and signalhome: Thanks for your deft handling of reality for me!!

[OGB]

Arroyo 17-8 3.98 ERA
Cueto 14-11 4.34 ERA
Volquez 13-7 4.23 ERA
Wood 12-9 3.87 ERA
Bailey 10-8 4.66 ERA
Leake 8-9 4.53 ERA

Wow, maybe you were just trying to have cautiously low expectations here, but if Cueto takes that big of a step back, this team doesn't have a prayer of competing for the NL pennant.

Call me overly optimistic, but I see Cueto having a 17 win, 3.28 ERA, 175 K season.
He's improved significantly in almost every statistical category (other than Ks) over the last three years.
ERA IP BB HR WHIP K
4.81 174 68 29 1.414 158
4.41 171.1 61 24 1.360 132
3.64 185.2 56 19 1.276 138

and for the true nerds, his WAR was a career high last year, too after dropping from his rookie season.

[757690]

Just for the record, Rolen was an above average 3B in the second half of last season when you figure in his fielding.

While it's doubtful he'll repeat his offensive production from last season, he doesn't need to in order to be a very useful and important part of the team in 2011.

[PhillipsHead]

he had 3 HR and 26 RBI in the 2nd half last year, I think that is about the production we will see next year.

9-12 HR
50-70 RBI


Francisco is see more playing time than Baker will like this season and will be the starting 3rd baseman in 2012

not only did his bat go south in the 2nd half, he defense was also horrible

I have a hard time believing any non-pitcher who weighs more than 250 lb. barely hits 10 in GABP. That defies the laws of physics...