Volquez to start opening day

[redsfan_12]

Per Fay

johnfayman:" Volquez will start Opening Day. #reds"

[lonewolf371]

And people were talking like they didn't even want him to make the rotation. Volquez catches too much flak. It's nice to see him starting opening day; hopefully he'll be able to show off some better control.

[BuckWild03]

I don't understand the reasoning behind choosing the opening day starter before a spring training game is played, but I can't say I'm mad. Don't think it really matters in the long run.

[bounty37h]

Wonder if this is legit or Fay just being Fay. Wonder how he handles spring training now since he cant spend his time moaning about Sarasota.

[redsfan_12]

Atleast it isn't Harang lol

[texasdave]

“Nobody’s looser than him,” Baker said. “He can handle the situation. Nothing bothers him. If it does, he doesn’t show it."

He handled game one of the playoffs pretty well. LOL.

[Hey Meat]

My God! I hope we can win despite Dusty again this year.

[knoonan991]

I like the move, Volquez matches up stuff-wise the best with Greinke. I think he will be good to go, now that he has had a full offseason to recover after Tommy John.

[DirtyBaker]

Personally would have went with Arroyo, then Cueto, but I'll give Dusty the benefit if Fay is right.

Lets not forget the last time Volquez pitched. He couldn't last 2 innings and had Halladay show him up with a no hitter. That memory has been in his mind for nearly 5 months now.

The best thing Dusty does is get the most out of the talent he has. If this lights a fire under Volquez by telling him he's going to be the ace of the staff, that's great. We're all hoping for a return to the 1/2 half of 2008 Volquez that can go out there and dominate. I don't want to say the Reds need that during the regular season with the amount of depth available, but come post-season we are going to need a hammer, and Volquez has the stuff physically to do that.

Opening day starter is one of the more arbitrary decisions a manager can make in my book anyway. The more I think about it the more sense this makes, even before spring training.

[redsfan_12]

wtf? cueto should be there

I think if anyone else, it should be Arroyo.

[Oxblood]

Arroyo earned the opening day start, what's up with this?

[Pony Boy]

Arroyo earned the opening day start, what's up with this?

I don't think Arroyo wanted the opening day start. He also does not like to pitch in day games.

[brm7675]

I don't like working 5 day work weeks but I do it because that is my job. I don't care what Bronson "wants" you do what is best for the team and starting EV is not...thanks Dusty...

[Cuban_Missile]

I don't like working 5 day work weeks but I do it because that is my job. I don't care what Bronson "wants" you do what is best for the team and starting EV is not...thanks Dusty...

Give Volquez a chance! He deserves it in my mind specially if they say he is ready to go in Spring Training. Plus they gave Harang opening day and look what that did. And you work 5 days a week because you have to. You could go out and become a great pitcher and not pitch day games if you could help it. But I don't see that happening so enjoy your 5 day work week.

[brm7675]

Give Volquez a chance! He deserves it in my mind specially if they say he is ready to go in Spring Training. Plus they gave Harang opening day and look what that did. And you work 5 days a week because you have to. You could go out and become a great pitcher and not pitch day games if you could help it. But I don't see that happening so enjoy your 5 day work week.

Deserves it? Based off what?

[Cuban_Missile]

Deserves it? Based off what?

He had some great outings last year, yes he had some bad one as well. But if they said he is the loosest and most focused so far through ST then based on his good outings last year and his focus this year then he deserves it.

[JeremiahHorsley]

If you ask me, I love the fact that Volquez is going to be the Opening Day starter. You know he's felt some heat after the post season start he made. It's got to feel good for him knowing his team still has trust in him and supports him enough to start him Opening Day.

[brm7675]

He had some great outings last year, yes he had some bad one as well. But if they said he is the loosest and most focused so far through ST then based on his good outings last year and his focus this year then he deserves it.

He had like 1 great, 1 good and the rest were average at best, and LAST time I checked his final outing wasn't even worth discussing. Both Wood and Cueto put together far better seasons last year. There is NO defending this move, especially at this point. It's just more proof how stupid our manager is and how much incredible talent this team has to even outshine his stupidness.

[brm7675]

If you ask me, I love the fact that Volquez is going to be the Opening Day starter. You know he's felt some heat after the post season start he made. It's got to feel good for him knowing his team still has trust in him and supports him enough to start him Opening Day.

they offered him a multi year deal after coming a TJ season, he knows the team wants him. Not pitching your best option on opening day is a bad move.

[JeremiahHorsley]

they offered him a multi year deal after coming a TJ season, he knows the team wants him. Not pitching your best option on opening day is a bad move.

Who says he's not the best option. Look back to 2008 and the way he pitched on a good elbow. His elbow is back to that condition and TJ surgery is supposed to make the elbow even stronger. Yes he may not have proven himself that much last season but I'm sure he's going to get his time in Spring Training to prove he's worth the start.

[Cuban_Missile]

He had like 1 great, 1 good and the rest were average at best, and LAST time I checked his final outing wasn't even worth discussing. Both Wood and Cueto put together far better seasons last year. There is NO defending this move, especially at this point. It's just more proof how stupid our manager is and how much incredible talent this team has to even outshine his stupidness.

Have you been in all the closed door meetings? Have you been there all of ST? Have you personally talked to Volquez about last season?

If the answer is no to all of these then I am pretty sure you should trust our manager in this move based on what he has seen so far. It is your right not to like this move but we all know Volquez has talent and promise. This is a proving ground for Volquez and shows him that Dusty and the team still have faith in him. If I was a pitcher and had a bad end to the season I would be determined to get better in the off season and when I start really showing my stuff in ST and coach goes hey would you like the start for Opening Day I would feel 150% better and more confident that hey I messed up last season here is a way to redeem myself in a HUGE way. So let him have his redemption start and show why he should be the OD pitcher.

[texasdave]

I like the move, Volquez matches up stuff-wise the best with Greinke. I think he will be good to go, now that he has had a full offseason to recover after Tommy John.

I guess I look at things a little differently than most people. I consider "control" part of a pitcher's stuff. You really can't separate the two items IMO. And a pitcher that averaged just over 5 IP a start, tallied a 1.50 WHIP and walked 5 batters every 9 IP does not have the best stuff on the staff.

[brm7675]

Have you been in all the closed door meetings? Have you been there all of ST? Have you personally talked to Volquez about last season?

If the answer is no to all of these then I am pretty sure you should trust our manager in this move based on what he has seen so far. It is your right not to like this move but we all know Volquez has talent and promise. This is a proving ground for Volquez and shows him that Dusty and the team still have faith in him. If I was a pitcher and had a bad end to the season I would be determined to get better in the off season and when I start really showing my stuff in ST and coach goes hey would you like the start for Opening Day I would feel 150% better and more confident that hey I messed up last season here is a way to redeem myself in a HUGE way. So let him have his redemption start and show why he should be the OD pitcher.

I don't trust Dusty as far as you can toss that toothpick he chews on game in and game out. He has shown he can't manage in game situations, he has NO CLUE how to manage, set or use a pitching staff. This team should have been the No. 1 seed last year, instead we got stuck with the 3 seed and a first round matchup without HFA against the Phils. This is a bad move, this is a bad sign of what the rotation might be and WHOM Dusty is going to play (see Janish NOT playing SS everyday) and THE FRIGGIN ST GAMES HAVE NOT EVEN STARTED YET. :thumbdown

[brm7675]

Who says he's not the best option. Look back to 2008 and the way he pitched on a good elbow. His elbow is back to that condition and TJ surgery is supposed to make the elbow even stronger. Yes he may not have proven himself that much last season but I'm sure he's going to get his time in Spring Training to prove he's worth the start.

his elbow is back? Really and we know that how? How many innings in ST has he thrown in real game action? We know what Travis Wood can do, we saw it game in and game out AND IN THE PLAYOFFS. We don't have to 'worry" if he is healthy. Picking an injured and wild pitcher to be your "ace" and lead your staff is just bad baseball.:thumbdown

[jrandal9]

You guys need to remember that he just came off TJ surgery and him not having the best control was a factor of that. Yes, he does walk people even before the surgery but he also makes a ton of people take a walk back to their dugout too. Have a positive outlook on this because it is going to be one hell of a season.:beerme:

[brm7675]

Well Dusty has picked his opening day starter even before any real ST games have been played...so i guess within the next few days he will announce Gomes the full time LF and Edgar the full time SS.....boy can't wait.

[757690]

I guess I look at things a little differently than most people. I consider "control" part of a pitcher's stuff. You really can't separate the two items IMO. And a pitcher that averaged just over 5 IP a start, tallied a 1.50 WHIP and walked 5 batters every 9 IP does not have the best stuff on the staff.

Volquez has always had control problems. Even during his great first half of 2008, he was walking around a guy every other inning. Point being, even with bad control issues, he can still be lights out.

[texasdave]

Volquez has always had control problems. Even during his great first half of 2008, he was walking around a guy every other inning. Point being, even with bad control issues, he can still be lights out.

I honestly hope he puts up 2008 numbers and proves me wrong. Nothing would make me happier. But when you start issuing so many free passes the margin for error is very slim. Volquez would throw a ton of pitches and, as a result, went just over 5 IP per start. I am thinking a TOR pitcher should go longer than that. I hope I am wrong. If EV excels it just makes the Reds that much better.

[Pete4prez]

I would have went with Arroyo out of respect.

[Stray]

Lol brm is in full on Dusty hating mode already...

I like the move. I would have thought it would be Cueto but I have no complaints. Of all of our 'good' pitchers on the staff I think Voltron has the best chance to become ace material in the near future.

[Red in Atl]

I would have went with Arroyo out of respect.

Bronson doesn't want to be the opening day starter. He said exactly that last year. Besides, you don't want Arroyo going against #1's all year long.

And you don't want Cueto being your number one guy either. He's still young and will have the added pressure of getting that big contract.

Volquez is perfect. He's going to be real hungry, and he's pitching for his next contract. A real contract. He should be totally healed from the TJS, and after last years playoff game, he's got plenty to prove.

I believe Wood and Leake will finish off the rotation, with Maloney and Thompson and Leclure the big three in Louisville ready to step in if any injuries occur.

I am leaving Homer out on purpose. I think he will have a good spring, and be traded to Texas. They are desparate for pitching down there. Maybe you send him home and he'll finally find his stride. Could be worth some nice pickups.

[New York Red]

I figured it would be Arroyo. Seems odd to name the opening day starter this early, but I guess in the long run it doesn't matter anyway.

[brm7675]

I figured it would be Arroyo. Seems odd to name the opening day starter this early, but I guess in the long run it doesn't matter anyway.

Yes it does matter, it again shows the total cluelessness of this manager. Why name the starter now? And on top of that why go with your worst SP of last season? What do you want to get that "first" loss out of the way early?

Hungry? BS, all players are hungry. I want the rotation to show he knows what he is doing as manager and this proves AGAIN he doesn't.

[brm7675]

Lol brm is in full on Dusty hating mode already...

I like the move. I would have thought it would be Cueto but I have no complaints. Of all of our 'good' pitchers on the staff I think Voltron has the best chance to become ace material in the near future.

So instead of sending our best pitcher to the mound for the first game, we send our worse? Yep good move Dusty...:thumbdown

[nmculbreth]

So instead of sending our best pitcher to the mound for the first game, we send our worse? Yep good move Dusty...:thumbdown

Honestly, it's one game. While I'm not sure why they've decided to name an opening day starter before spring training even gets started, I don't think I'd have cared who they ended up naming as the OD starter. There isn't a single starter that jumps out as the clear cut favorite for the job and in the long run it isn't likely to matter since the schedule doesn't match up number ones against each other with any regularity.

Complete non-story, IMHO.

[brm7675]

Honestly, it's one game. While I'm not sure why they've decided to name an opening day starter before spring training even gets started, I don't think I'd have cared who they ended up naming as the OD starter. There isn't a single starter that jumps out as the clear cut favorite for the job and in the long run it isn't likely to matter since the schedule doesn't match up number ones against each other with any regularity.

Complete non-story, IMHO.

It's not just 1 game, it's a continual pattern of our manager not having a clue of what he is doing. To name the OD starter at this point is stupid, then on top of that you name the worse pitcher of your starting 5 from last year as your opening day starter? It's a pattern that is the issue here also...:thumbdown

[nmculbreth]

It's not just 1 game, it's a continual pattern of our manager not having a clue of what he is doing. To name the OD starter at this point is stupid, then on top of that you name the worse pitcher of your starting 5 from last year as your opening day starter? It's a pattern that is the issue here also...:thumbdown

In fairness you're also talking about a small sample size and neglecting to mention that he was also coming off of Tommy John surgery. In his last full season he a 4.8 WAR player and an All Star, so it's not like this decision is completely without merit.

Is it possible that he ends up being the worst SP on the staff? Absolutely. Is it also possible that he ends up being the best SP on the staff? IMHO, yes and I think the latter is more likely than the former.

[Stray]

So instead of sending our best pitcher to the mound for the first game, we send our worse? Yep good move Dusty...:thumbdown

I'm not sure where you get that Volquez is our worst pitcher. The decision was 3 guys only...Volquez, Cueto, or Arroyo. It's one of 162 games and he needs to be REALLY good if we're going to make some noise this year. This isn't a bad move.

[R_Webb18]

Yeah after he was not picked, it is not like he would cry to the media about it

no im pretty sure they asked him 1st he said no. and most of you people have no clue what your talkin about. i get it you don't like dusty baker but cmon move on. he can do everything right but you still find something wrong. theres never a win win spot with you. idk how or why you root for a team if alls you do is complain.

[Kingspoint]

"Volquez gets Opening Day Start"

I hate it.

We already know that he's going to overtaxed to begin with just because he threw so few innings last year after recovering from "major" surgery.

Why not make the guy the #4 Starter so that he has one less start on the season? If we have any plans on winning playoff games, we'll need a healthy and not overtaxed Volquez to match up against Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, Matt Cain, and Tim Lincecum.

At only 62 innings last year plus the couple of starts he had in the minors, Volquez is going to blow away the "30-rule", which probably doesn't apply here to a seasoned vet, but who's to say that he didn't have the problems to begin with because he overtaxed his arm by pitching in the "incredibly stupid" World Games, or whatever they call those nonsense games they play in baseball during Spring Training now every few years.

Volquez already throws too many balls during a game, so his "innings" is so much greater than other's innings who don't throw as many balls, such as Travis Wood.

After Volquez reaches 160 innings this season, look for him to start having all types of control issues worse than the ones he usually has. Wouldn't be surprised at all if he starts putting up 6 walks per nine innings after he reaches 160 innings this season.

Would have loved to have kept him at 170 innings through the regular season this year with another possible 24-36 innings in the post-season. If he ends the regular season at 200+ innings, I just don't see how he could be anything but injured in 2012, the first year of the big contract that he's hoping to sign this off-season.

[VottoFan54]

In the end its not gonna matter who starts opening day, who would you want to start?
Arroyo- he said he didn't want to start opening day
Cueto-who knows if he can handle an opening day start
Leake, Wood, Bailey- all young guys who dont deserve it and may not even make the rotation, although Wood is almost a lock
Volquez- was great before missing a season with tommy john surgery

As you can see none of those choices are ideal but I would go with Volquez because he is the most willing and deserving canidate

[mroby85]

I think i've seen more complaints about Volquez pitching opening day than there were about him pitching game 1 of the NLDS, and that was certainly a lot more important than this.

[Kingspoint]

Anybody but Volquez would be alright for me.

And, I could care less what Arroyo wants or doesn't want.

[Kingspoint]

I think i've seen more complaints about Volquez pitching opening day than there were about him pitching game 1 of the NLDS, and that was certainly a lot more important than this.

And, those who didn't want him starting were 100% correct.

But, this is for a different reason this time. Last time, he flat out wasn't even close to being the REDS' #1 pitcher. While he may or may not be this time, and he's probably only got a 20% chance of being their best pitcher at the start of April, it's all about making sure that this "ACE" of the staff is better prepared when the playoffs begin. I think keeping him at 170 innings during the regular season is more important than throwing him for 220 innings during the regular season and primping his feathers so he can have the #1 moniker.

[lonewolf371]

Anybody but Volquez would be alright for me.

And, I could care less what Arroyo wants or doesn't want.
And Dusty and Arroyo could care less about what you want. The difference is their opinion actually matters.

Opening Day starter doesn't even really matter. Everyone will get about the same number of starts over the course of the season barring injury.

[VottoFan54]

Opening Day starter doesn't even really matter. Everyone will get about the same number of starts over the course of the season barring injury.

Opening Day starter is one of the least important decisions Dusty will make all year.

[mlh1981]

Have barely given it a thought. It's just a formality.

[mroby85]

Have barely given it a thought. It's just a formality.

I'm just glad its not Harang.

[Tadasimha]

It's not just 1 game, it's a continual pattern of our manager not having a clue of what he is doing. To name the OD starter at this point is stupid, then on top of that you name the worse pitcher of your starting 5 from last year as your opening day starter? It's a pattern that is the issue here also...:thumbdown

Dusty is the only manager to have already named an OD starter - both Mike Quade and Tony LaRussa have also announced their opening day starters. May be managers are starting to set parts of their rotation earlier on in ST than before - doesn't make it stupid, just different.

[JeremiahHorsley]

Opening Day starter is one of the least important decisions Dusty will make all year.

Agreed! I mean really, when the Reds make the playoffs, do you really think people are going to be saying, "IDK why the hell they started Volquez OD?" No. I don't think it's a bad choice at all. In the end, winning games is all that matters. But you want the players to be happy and having fun. We've all heard Arroyo hates pitching during the day and it shows. He's much more effective during night games.

[Girevik]

Yes it does matter, it again shows the total cluelessness of this manager. Why name the starter now?

Chicago has already announced thier opening day starter (and it's NOT Zambrano, who had done if the past several years). I personally would have waited, but it's not like Baker is the only one in the world who could possible do this.

[Tadasimha]

Dusty is the only manager to have already named an OD starter - both Mike Quade and Tony LaRussa have also announced their opening day starters. May be managers are starting to set parts of their rotation earlier on in ST than before - doesn't make it stupid, just different.

Sorry - meant to just edit my first post where I mean to write that Dusty is not the only manager to have named their starter.

[Stray]

At the end of the day Bronson will lead this team in innings pitched and probably log 210-220. To get worked up about him not getting the OD start when he didn't want it makes zero sense.

[bounty37h]

If you ask me, I love the fact that Volquez is going to be the Opening Day starter. You know he's felt some heat after the post season start he made. It's got to feel good for him knowing his team still has trust in him and supports him enough to start him Opening Day.

On the other side, I hope he has the mental makeup to come back if he doesnt come out strong in this role-in the past he hasnt shown that mental maturity/strength to put it behind and dig down-what I keep saying I think is keeping him from being an "ace" type pitcher. .

[bounty37h]

I think i've seen more complaints about Volquez pitching opening day than there were about him pitching game 1 of the NLDS, and that was certainly a lot more important than this.

Wow, no kidding MRoby!! I am surprised it was announced this early, but I certainly am not on a building ledge like someone else around here. Makes you wonder how/why they are a fan when they are so miserable with and everything about it all?

[brm7675]

I'm not sure where you get that Volquez is our worst pitcher. The decision was 3 guys only...Volquez, Cueto, or Arroyo. It's one of 162 games and he needs to be REALLY good if we're going to make some noise this year. This isn't a bad move.

Simple, look at his performance last season compared to Wood, Bronson, Leake or Cueto. Of that group his numbers were the worse and yes it's due in large part to TJ surgery and rushing him back. But the numbers are what they are and the Reds have better choices to start the season.

[Stray]

Simple, look at his performance last season compared to Wood, Bronson, Leake or Cueto. Of that group his numbers were the worse and yes it's due in large part to TJ surgery and rushing him back. But the numbers are what they are and the Reds have better choices to start the season.

And Leake and Wood will NOT pitch #1 innings this year...Bronson said he didn't want it, so you're left with Cueto or Volquez. Either one works for me. I don't understand being bothered by it.

[Cuban_Missile]

And Leake and Wood will NOT pitch #1 innings this year...Bronson said he didn't want it, so you're left with Cueto or Volquez. Either one works for me. I don't understand being bothered by it.

Someone get this man a cookie!

[Kingspoint]

Someone get this man a cookie!

Why? Because his argument crumbles under the weight of examination?

I think he couldn't be more wrong about Wood not being a #1 Innings Starter.

Wood will pitch more innings than Volquez will this season. Every possible argument supports that he will. Wood wastes fewer pitches. Wood walks fewer batters. Wood gives up fewer runs. Wood strikes out fewer players. Wood isn't coming off an injury. Wood pitched twice as many innings last year than Volquez did. Wood doesn't have a delivery that puts as much strain on his arm as Volquez.

[Stray]

Why? Because his argument crumbles under the weight of examination?

I think he couldn't be more wrong about Wood not being a #1 Innings Starter.

Wood will pitch more innings than Volquez will this season. Every possible argument supports that he will. Wood wastes fewer pitches. Wood walks fewer batters. Wood gives up fewer runs. Wood strikes out fewer players. Wood isn't coming off an injury. Wood pitched twice as many innings last year than Volquez did. Wood doesn't have a delivery that puts as much strain on his arm as Volquez.

The Reds have already said that they're wanting to gradually bump up Wood and Leake's innings this year. Volquez will not be monitored as closely as we're not worried about him hitting a wall late in the year.

[gedred69]

I accept the choice. Arroyo doesn't want it, and I don't blame him. In that position he would season-long more often than not, be matched up against #1's. That's not his spot. He is best working against opponents armor chinks, like a #2 presents. Cueto is too volatile and Wood is too inexperienced. But, who knows? Maybe somebody dominates in ST and Dusty changes his mind.....

[Girevik]

[QUOTE=gedred69;2327362]I accept the choice. Arroyo doesn't want it, and I don't blame him. In that position he would season-long more often than not, be matched up against #1's./QUOTE]

I don't buy that line of thinking. As the year goes on teams have different off days and the occasional rain out. It's not like you always get a 1 vs. 1, 2 vs. 2 after the first couple weeks of the season.

[bounty37h]

[QUOTE=gedred69;2327362]I accept the choice. Arroyo doesn't want it, and I don't blame him. In that position he would season-long more often than not, be matched up against #1's./QUOTE]

I don't buy that line of thinking. As the year goes on teams have different off days and the occasional rain out. It's not like you always get a 1 vs. 1, 2 vs. 2 after the first couple weeks of the season.

I think Arroyo simply doesnt want to be distracted by the fanfare behind opening day, prefers day 2 when it is just baseball and most of the socialites from game one are gone.

[PhillipsHead]

The whole point of naming your opening day starter, is unofficially naming your Ace. It isn't just another start...it's basically setting the tone for your rotation for the whole year. I think it is hard to argue against the fact that at this point, Volquez has the best stuff of the rotation and has the most potential of being our TOR starter that we've been needing. If he's healed from his surgery and had time to compose himself and get his stuff together, hopefully this is the year he truly blossoms.

But the writing is on the wall for our other starters. Arroyo is an excellent middle rotation and consistent starter, but far from an ace. Cueto is still young and still could be the man, but his stuff is a step behind Volquez. Bailey is Bailey and until he posts a full season of sub-4 ERA baseball, he'll be a 4 or 5. As for Wood and Leake, they are very promising young starters, but are simply sophomores, and don't warrant starting opening day, or being given the burden of being a 1, 2 or 3 starter.

Go Volquez! May this be the year you blossom into the ace of this rotation!

[lonewolf371]

Why? Because his argument crumbles under the weight of examination?

I think he couldn't be more wrong about Wood not being a #1 Innings Starter.

Wood will pitch more innings than Volquez will this season. Every possible argument supports that he will. Wood wastes fewer pitches. Wood walks fewer batters. Wood gives up fewer runs. Wood strikes out fewer players. Wood isn't coming off an injury. Wood pitched twice as many innings last year than Volquez did. Wood doesn't have a delivery that puts as much strain on his arm as Volquez.
Not really. Wood also has a ridiculously high fly ball rate that could cause his ERA to balloon if he doesn't get as lucky with his HR/FB rate next year. He also posted a BABIP of .259, which is probably too low even for him. There are a lot of signs that Wood's standard numbers last year look better than he really pitched.

[Mr Larkin]

I stayed away all off season and now I remember why.
EV is a quality starter and the front office has always wanted him to be the future ace. Truth is we lack an ace at this point and that is fine. We won without an ace last year and we will do so again this year.
Dusty said something about hard (EV), soft (BA) and then hard again (Cueto). That makes sense to me. It is also obvious that those three are the only locks for the rotation - the other two slots are still to be determined and none of those guys has a shot at the #1 spot.
I love the Reds. I love baseball. I hate how many of you react to everything.

[Kingspoint]

Not really. Wood also has a ridiculously high fly ball rate that could cause his ERA to balloon if he doesn't get as lucky with his HR/FB rate next year. He also posted a BABIP of .259, which is probably too low even for him. There are a lot of signs that Wood's standard numbers last year look better than he really pitched.

There's a difference between flyballs that fly over the fence because they are hit hard and flyballs that are can-o-corns induced because of the way the pitcher forced the batter to hit his pitch, which is what Wood does. There are no issues at all regarding Woods' flyball rate, and he wasn't "lucky" with them last year. It was all skill and he controlled how good of contact the batters had with them.

[Cuban_Missile]

I stayed away all off season and now I remember why.
EV is a quality starter and the front office has always wanted him to be the future ace. Truth is we lack an ace at this point and that is fine. We won without an ace last year and we will do so again this year.
Dusty said something about hard (EV), soft (BA) and then hard again (Cueto). That makes sense to me. It is also obvious that those three are the only locks for the rotation - the other two slots are still to be determined and none of those guys has a shot at the #1 spot.
I love the Reds. I love baseball. I hate how many of you react to everything.

A bunch of chicken littles running around because Arroyo isnt getting the start.

[bounty37h]

I dont care which one, just give someone the dang ball and lets get on it!

[lonewolf371]

There's a difference between flyballs that fly over the fence because they are hit hard and flyballs that are can-o-corns induced because of the way the pitcher forced the batter to hit his pitch, which is what Wood does. There are no issues at all regarding Woods' flyball rate, and he wasn't "lucky" with them last year. It was all skill and he controlled how good of contact the batters had with them.
There were only two pitchers in baseball with over 100 IP that had a lower ground ball rate than Travis Wood last year. Even flyball pitchers like Johan Santana and Jered Weaver get way more ground balls than Travis Wood. He only pitched 16 innings in GABP last year. If he gets more starts at home, a lot of those fly balls will start turning into home runs.

Wood was good last year, but he's caused more hysteria on a small sample size than any other Reds player I've seen.

[signalhome]

There were only two pitchers in baseball with over 100 IP that had a lower ground ball rate than Travis Wood last year. Even flyball pitchers like Johan Santana and Jered Weaver get way more ground balls than Travis Wood. He only pitched 16 innings in GABP last year. If he gets more starts at home, a lot of those fly balls will start turning into home runs.

Wood was good last year, but he's caused more hysteria on a small sample size than any other Reds player I've seen.

Interesting stuff on the ground ball rates. I knew Wood had a propensity for fly balls, but not to that degree. High fly ball rates and GABP don't go well together -- let's just pray he doesn't turn into Eric Milton 2.0.

We also shouldn't forget that Wood gave up line drives at an astonishing rate of 21.4% last year while somehow maintaining a .259 BABIP. Some regression is certainly in line. Hopefully he can keep improving his strikeout rate (8.91 in his 16 AAA games last year -- I'd love to see that at the big league level) and keep his ERA around or under 4.00. I'd be beyond thrilled with that.

[Kingspoint]

lonewolf and signalhome....get away from your statistics for a moment and put down your sliderulers and calculators.

Travis Wood knows how to pitch. I can't tell you enough how meaningless your flyball stats and GABP mean when it comes to Travis Wood. It might be more meaningful for many other pitchers, if not most other pitchers, but it doesn't for Wood. Wood intentionally gets players to make poor contact. No amount of poor contact is going to change how many balls get hit over the fence in GABP. Do you really think that it makes a difference whether he's pitching on the road or at home to where his ERA is going to climb a whole run or two, as you're indicating? Use your own "theories" and look up what the difference between GABP and the "average NL ballpark" is as far as runs per game. You're talking about 2/10th's of a run at the most. 2/10th's of a run is just a normal variance for a pitcher who would be considered extremely consistent.

[signalhome]

lonewolf and signalhome....get away from your statistics for a moment and put down your sliderulers and calculators.

Travis Wood knows how to pitch. I can't tell you enough how meaningless your flyball stats and GABP mean when it comes to Travis Wood. It might be more meaningful for many other pitchers, if not most other pitchers, but it doesn't for Wood. Wood intentionally gets players to make poor contact. No amount of poor contact is going to change how many balls get hit over the fence in GABP. Do you really think that it makes a difference whether he's pitching on the road or at home to where his ERA is going to climb a whole run or two, as you're indicating? Use your own "theories" and look up what the difference between GABP and the "average NL ballpark" is as far as runs per game. You're talking about 2/10th's of a run at the most. 2/10th's of a run is just a normal variance for a pitcher who would be considered extremely consistent.

Haha, put down our sliderulers and calculators? We're simply looking at peripheral numbers in an attempt to predict Wood's future.

Wood's strikeout rate is good (7.54 K/9 last year at MLB, 8.91 at AAA). He most certainly is not a "pitch-to-contact" guy a la Mike Leake (5.92 K/9), not with that K/9. You say he intentionally gets players to make poor contact. The 21.4% LD rate indicates that hitters made good contact over 20% of the time last year (not even counting good contact on fly balls that resulted in home runs) -- that means he was below average at inducing poor contact. If I'm remembering correctly, typically a BABIP should fall somewhere around 0.12 higher than the line drive rate. Going by that, his BABIP should have been somewhere around .334 instead of .259. Since Wood produces fewer ground balls and more fly balls, his BABIP is naturally going to be lower than what is expected -- given the extreme fly ball pitcher that he is, a .310 or even .300 is probably more in line with where last year should have fallen. If his BABIP had been .300 instead of .259, there would have been a major difference in his numbers and everyone wouldn't be hyping him to the extent that they are.

I watched every Wood start last year, and I agree he looks really good. I'm really excited about his future as a Redleg; in no way was I suggesting he's going to be a bad pitcher. Wood is probably going to be a great middle-of-the-rotation guy for years to come. His high K/9 and low BB/9 also point to the fact that he may have the potential to be a #2 or #1 guy. The key to that, though, is lowering his LD% and FB%. It's difficult to be very, very good with a 30.5% GB% -- not impossible, just extremely difficult. If he's going to survive with that low of a GB%, his LD% has to decrease. He is not going to sustain a 6.3% HR/FB for his career, unless he's the next Cliff Lee (and Cliff Lee's GB% the last few years is much better than Wood's), and with his high FB%, he is going to give up a lot of home runs.

[lonewolf371]

lonewolf and signalhome....get away from your statistics for a moment and put down your sliderulers and calculators.

Travis Wood knows how to pitch. I can't tell you enough how meaningless your flyball stats and GABP mean when it comes to Travis Wood. It might be more meaningful for many other pitchers, if not most other pitchers, but it doesn't for Wood. Wood intentionally gets players to make poor contact. No amount of poor contact is going to change how many balls get hit over the fence in GABP. Do you really think that it makes a difference whether he's pitching on the road or at home to where his ERA is going to climb a whole run or two, as you're indicating? Use your own "theories" and look up what the difference between GABP and the "average NL ballpark" is as far as runs per game. You're talking about 2/10th's of a run at the most. 2/10th's of a run is just a normal variance for a pitcher who would be considered extremely consistent.
Did you do a double-chin strap pull before you said that? There's really no indication from scouts, peripheral stats, or pretty much anything that says that you're right.

There's a difference between believing in a guy and just being a Wood homer. He hasn't won a Cy Young, and whatever he did to win your heart over doesn't automatically make him the best pitcher in MLB. He's a good pitcher, but has done nothing that says he's the best pitcher on the team or even a lock for the rotation.

Let him win his job in spring training, and then we'll watch him in the regular season and see how he goes. If he's as good as you say, he'll get plenty of starts and chances to showcase his ability. I think we'll be lucky to get 140 IP and a 4.1 ERA out of him in the majors.

[Kingspoint]

Since Wood produces fewer ground balls and more fly balls, his BABIP is naturally going to be lower than what is expected -- given the extreme fly ball pitcher that he is, a .310 or even .300 is probably more in line with where last year should have fallen.

So, what will you say when he does it again?

He was "lucky" again?

"Luck" is the term one uses when they're unable to "understand" what's going on because they are looking at the wrong information.

[Kingspoint]

D There's really no indication from scouts, peripheral stats, or pretty much anything that says that you're right.



I saw him pitch. That's all I need.

Throw away your books and trust your instincts.

Sit behind home plate during one of his starts and you'll see for yourself. Both of you obviously know baseball. Put more trust into what you see in person than in what some stats say. I know that sounds too much like Dusty, but usually that's the best way to go. (The thing with Dusty is that he's selective in what he sees, such as thinking that a .300 OBP gets on at a .380 clip, the number needed to be a #1 hitter.)

[lonewolf371]

I saw him pitch. That's all I need.

Throw away your books and trust your instincts.

Sit behind home plate during one of his starts and you'll see for yourself. Both of you obviously know baseball. Put more trust into what you see in person than in what some stats say. I know that sounds too much like Dusty, but usually that's the best way to go. (The thing with Dusty is that he's selective in what he sees, such as thinking that a .300 OBP gets on at a .380 clip, the number needed to be a #1 hitter.)
Use the force, Luke?:p:

I hope he's as good as you say.

[swaisuc]

So, what will you say when he does it again?

He was "lucky" again?

"Luck" is the term one uses when they're unable to "understand" what's going on because they are looking at the wrong information.

Not addressed to me, but for me personally I think IF he does it again I will buy what you're selling. Last year, I went to starts from Wood in spring training, Louisville, and Cincy and I do see what you're saying that he "tries" for those fly balls. However, I still say we don't have nearly enough of a sample size to decide he is a guy who is going to make a career out of beating the statistics. I have seen exactly what you're saying that Wood absolutely does fool hitters into some easy outs that are primarily fly balls. At the same time, it is easy for all of us to remember those times when he looked good doing that and forget some of the harder hit flyouts that could've been a fraction of an inch from being a HR. Now, do it for 170 innings this year and we'll let you drive the Travis Wood bandwagon.

Also, keep in mind when thinking about the stadium, that it doesnt matter that GABP is a somewhat fair park in terms of runs. What we're talking about here is Wood's ability to keep the ball in the park at GABP and that is where the real difference is at our stadium.

[Kingspoint]

Also, keep in mind when thinking about the stadium, that it doesnt matter that GABP is a somewhat fair park in terms of runs. What we're talking about here is Wood's ability to keep the ball in the park at GABP and that is where the real difference is at our stadium.

The Park was built to fit Junior's swing. Junior rarely hit homerun balls to Left Field. So, the GABP is going to be advantageous to Left-handed pull hitters and disadvantageous to Right-Handed Hitters.

I apologize for stating the obvious, but Wood is a Left-Handed pitcher, so the disadvantages of the short Left-Field line (not talking about the actual distance, but the way the ball flies easier down the left field line and left field than it does the right field line and right field) doesn't handicap Travis as it does handicap a Right Hander of the same abilities.

[Kingspoint]

Travis Wood's performance tonight:

Nothing short of vintage Travis Wood:

11 Pitches
7 Batters
6 Outs
2 3-pitch Strikeouts
1 Single.

5 Batters saw one pitch w/ 2 GroundOuts, 2 FlyOuts, and 1 Single.
The other two Batters struck out on 3 pitches each, each of them swinging and whiffing 3 times.

Travis Wood just doesn't let batters make good contact with the ball.....at least not good enough to send it deep over the fence. That's just intelligence at it's best. He pitches like a 10-year Veteran.

[lonewolf371]

Travis Wood's performance tonight:

Nothing short of vintage Travis Wood:

11 Pitches
7 Batters
6 Outs
2 3-pitch Strikeouts
1 Single.

5 Batters saw one pitch w/ 2 GroundOuts, 2 FlyOuts, and 1 Single.
The other two Batters struck out on 3 pitches each, each of them swinging and whiffing 3 times.

Travis Wood just doesn't let batters make good contact with the ball.....at least not good enough to send it deep over the fence. That's just intelligence at it's best. He pitches like a 10-year Veteran.
Using 2 IP from a spring training game as validation? I think we have a bromance going on.:p:

[signalhome]

Using 2 IP from a spring training game as validation? I think we have a bromance going on.:p:

I would poke fun as well, but I've had a bromance going with Jay Bruce for about three years now, so I'm really in no position to talk.

[Old NDN]

Anybody (besides me) getting a little concerned with the length of Volquez's abscence from the team, and his lack of innings against MLB hitters?

[texasdave]

Anybody (besides me) getting a little concerned with the length of Volquez's abscence from the team, and his lack of innings against MLB hitters?

Wasn't he pencilled in to start today? So that's why Reineke got the nod. I don't understand the whole process. He was in the DR, came to camp and now has to go back? What?

[Krawhitham]

They are now claiming he will start tomorrow instead of Arroyo

Sorta like opening day :)


Is 4 starts going to be enough?

[Kingspoint]

It was a dumb idea to have Volquez start Opening Day.

And for all of the people who used the "excuse" that it doesn't matter, it does matter. The REDS don't win the 1990 World Series without their fast start. It's always important to get to a fast start.

To throw a pitcher out there who hasn't pitched well in almost two years makes no sense.

Have your best pitcher pitch the most, and right now, and for the last six months, that's Travis Wood. It's not that hard to figure out.

There's nothing surprising at all by this horrible performance by Volquez, as it's exactly the same performance he gave us the last time he pitched in a game, and it's exactly the same he's done all Spring long with his Gargantuan 10.00 ERA.

[Vottomatic]

It was a dumb idea to have Volquez start Opening Day.

And for all of the people who used the "excuse" that it doesn't matter, it does matter. The REDS don't win the 1990 World Series without their fast start. It's always important to get to a fast start.

To throw a pitcher out there who hasn't pitched well in almost two years makes no sense.

Have your best pitcher pitch the most, and right now, and for the last six months, that's Travis Wood. It's not that hard to figure out.

There's nothing surprising at all by this horrible performance by Volquez, as it's exactly the same performance he gave us the last time he pitched in a game, and it's exactly the same he's done all Spring long with his Gargantuan 10.00 ERA.

x2

[Kingspoint]

Good thing we have Gomes playing left field, so that we could have Votto coming up as a meaningless run in the 9th in a 6-3 game, instead of the tying run in a 5-3 game (Gomes' error). How about all of them hits Gomes got, too?

[VottoFan54]

Good thing we have Gomes playing left field, so that we could have Votto coming up as a meaningless run in the 9th in a 6-3 game, instead of the tying run in a 5-3 game (Gomes' error). How about all of them hits Gomes got, too?

Look back on that game and now tell me that Votto's run was "meaningless". Gomes drove in a run in the ninth on a sac fly, I'm not a Gomes fan and I think Lewis should be starting in left but to make conclusions off of one game is ridiculous.

[Stray]

His stuff looked great, his command was horrible though. He did settle down after the first couple of innings which was nice but I'm still worried about his control.

[Vottomatic]

While I still don't think Volquez should have started Opening Day........I will give him props and saw a positive. Throw out the bad start first inning, and I think he settled down and didn't pitch that badly compared to spring training. I actually felt better when he finished the 6th inning. He had good stuff at times. Just lacked control here and there. My gut feeling is come mid-May he might be back to form. We shall see.

[lonewolf371]

Take out the first inning, or even the first at bat and he pitched fairly well. Five strikeouts, great velocity. I'm not letting back-to-back home runs in the first inning of the year, one of which was a lucky shot on a well-thrown ball, to change my opinion on Volquez.

And by the way, he only walked two batters the whole game. To go six innings after what happened the first two was a huge bounce-back.

[texasdave]

Take out the first inning, or even the first at bat and he pitched fairly well. Five strikeouts, great velocity. I'm not letting back-to-back home runs in the first inning of the year, one of which was a lucky shot on a well-thrown ball, to change my opinion on Volquez.

And by the way, he only walked two batters the whole game. To go six innings after what happened the first two was a huge bounce-back.

Really you could say that same thing about most pitchers for most games. If you take this pitch or that inning away and they pitched well.

Bottom line is he gave up 5 runs in 6 innings. That is not good.

[lonewolf371]

Really you could say that same thing about most pitchers for most games. If you take this pitch or that inning away and they pitched well.

Bottom line is he gave up 5 runs in 6 innings. That is not good.
I'll put it this way: I'd be more concerned with 4 walks and 3 runs than 2 walks and 5 runs. One says he was unlucky while the other says he was bad.

[DocRed]

Dusty fails again.....

[texasdave]

I'll put it this way: I'd be more concerned with 4 walks and 3 runs than 2 walks and 5 runs. One says he was unlucky while the other says he was bad.

It was nice to see him throw strikes. But I don't consider home runs unlucky. And he gave up a trio of them.

[BPhillips4]

I was impressed by Volquez' ability to rebound from a shaky start. Sure, you can probably say "take away that one inning" about a lot of guys, but it was his first OD start, and I'm sure he had plenty of nerves going. And if you DO take away that first inning, you get 5IP with a very efficient pitch count.

And let us not forget that due to the Visa issues, he hasn't gotten a lot of work in this spring.

If he struggles his next start out, it may merit a look, but for now, there's a nice silver lining in his performance.

[Kingspoint]

While I still don't think Volquez should have started Opening Day........I will give him props and saw a positive. Throw out the bad start first inning, and I think he settled down and didn't pitch that badly compared to spring training. I actually felt better when he finished the 6th inning. He had good stuff at times. Just lacked control here and there. My gut feeling is come mid-May he might be back to form. We shall see.

I agree.

[Oxblood]

This guy just looks like a goof troop on the mound. I'm guessing he's not very smart.

[lonewolf371]

It was nice to see him throw strikes. But I don't consider home runs unlucky. And he gave up a trio of them.
The one that was low, off the plate, and inside? Yeah, guys knock those out of the park all the time. Should've been a swinging strike.

[Krawhitham]

He will get rocked again today. The Astros are due, MLB teams do not lose 5 in a row too often

[Kingspoint]

He will get rocked again today. The Astros are due, MLB teams do not lose 5 in a row too often

The Astros seem to start off their seasons slowly recently.

I wouldn't be shocked to see them 10 games under .500 at some point before May ends.

[lonewolf371]

I'd be surprised if he got rocked again and had the same strikeout/walk ratio that he had the last game. If he doesn't walk guys again, he'll go 6-7 frames and allow less than 3 runs. The Astros lineup kind of sucks, anyway.

[bshall2105]

He will get rocked again today. The Astros are due, MLB teams do not lose 5 in a row too often

The only way he's getting rocked tonight is if he can't find the strike zone. The Astros lineup doesn't compare to the Brewers.

[lonewolf371]

I'd be surprised if he got rocked again and had the same strikeout/walk ratio that he had the last game. If he doesn't walk guys again, he'll go 6-7 frames and allow less than 3 runs. The Astros lineup kind of sucks, anyway.


The only way he's getting rocked tonight is if he can't find the strike zone. The Astros lineup doesn't compare to the Brewers.
And of course control was nowhere to be found tonight. This was a much more worrisome performance.

[schmidty622]

And of course control was nowhere to be found tonight. This was a much more worrisome performance.

Disagree. He was pretty solid after inning #1. I'm concerned about EV. But I think we can live with him at this point.

[texasdave]

And of course control was nowhere to be found tonight. This was a much more worrisome performance.

Maybe the Reds should have one of their relievers pitch the first inning and bring EV to start the second.

[LeDoux]

Maybe the Reds should have one of their relievers pitch the first inning and bring EV to start the second.

If that reliever is Coco, I say yes. If those 2 pitch in the right order- shutout.

[lonewolf371]

Disagree. He was pretty solid after inning #1. I'm concerned about EV. But I think we can live with him at this point.
You think so?

I was watching later in the game and the ball wasn't landing near the glove, even if he was missing bats. He needs some control work.

[Captain13]

I listened to the first couple of innings and The Cowboy was blasting EV for pitch selection. I could be way off here, but isn't that Ramon's job? Shouldn't the catcher be taking at least some of the heat for calling pitches?