Sun Deck's Gonelong 2011 Season Win Prediction Thread

[Eric the Red]

While reading the ORG's Gonelong's 2011 Season Win Prediction Thread and mentioning he wants a challenge from the Sun Deck, it appears we need a thread to go up against the big boys. (I feel like the JV team playing the Varsity in practice.) Regardless, let's give them our best shot. Hey, we won last year.

I'll say the Reds finish the 2011 regular season with 93 wins.

I look for Bruce and Stubbs to reach all-star caliber status and for the starting pitching to get healthy and pitch to expectations.

Mod's - please make this a sticky, thanks.

[bshall2105]

The reds finish with a solid 90-72 behind the face of the franchise, Jay Bruce, and go on to loose a one game playoff to the Cardinals.

[Knightro28]

86-76, still good enough for Central title. Slow start. Get hot at the end and ride the wave to a Divisional Round Championship. Bowing out in the NLCS to Philly.

[Reds]

94

[code]

89 Wins

[Reverend Doo-Rag]

79 wins

[DaytonFlyer]

88 wins

[redsfanmia]

I think Rolen breaks down and the pitching staff falters and the Reds stumble to a 74 -88 record.

[OGB]

96 wins
I underestimated by a few wins last year, so my plan is to try and overestimate this year.
Also I'm predicting a Gold Glove for Paul Janish.

[Oxblood]

97 W's

[Jefferson24]

81 wins, the pitching is going to hurt us this year.

[nmculbreth]

86 wins.

[VottoFan54]

93

[davereds24]

82

[Bill Slawski]

97 wins.

[Roush's socks]

92 wins and another division crown. Arroyo comes back faster than expected. Volquez will have his best season yet and finish top 5 in the Cy Young. Cueto will be out of action most of the year, and Bailey will never put it together. But Wood should be effective, and I think either LeCure or Maloney will have a breakout season and make up for the lack of Cueto and Bailey. That is just my guess as to how the rotation will fare, but it shows that the Reds have so much depth that even if 2-3 of their potential starters aren't a factor this year, they can still have a good rotation.

The offense is solid and the defense should be great again. So why not predict the Reds to repeat as division champs? The only reasons I see are Rolen's potential decline, and the ???'s in the starting rotaton. But I think the Reds have depth in those areas. They also have the MVP Votto as well as potential breakthrough players like Bruce, Stubbs, Chapman, Wood and a bunch of guys in AAA.

[mattwellsey]

89.. and it wins the division

We lose in the NLDS to the NL East Champion Atlanta Braves.

Grandpa's Phillies capture the Wild Card, defeat the Giants in the other NLDS.

[New York Red]

88-74

Slow start, then getting it together around the all-star break, and then picking up steam down the stretch to win a second consecutive division title.

[NeilHamburger]

92 wins.


Defense:
This team has far and away the best defense in the division (and it's not even close). Hell, they may have the best defense in the NL.


Offense
They are 2 deep at almost every position on the field. The only crippling injury would be a season ender for Votto. Their offense may not lead the league again, but they will be in the top 5.

Bullpen:
Cordero seems to be throwing better, and is in good shape. Massett is an excellent set up guy, and Chapman (though wild at times) has such good stuff that he can usually escape his own jams. Bray is good as a situational lefty, and Ondrusek is a decent middle reliever.

Starters:
This is my biggest area of concern. I think Travis Wood is going to have a great year, and I think he'll settle in as a reliable number 2 starter. After that I have many questions. If Arroyo is able to get over his illness by the end of May you'll most assuredly have another of his solid years. Cueto will perform well if healthy, but I'll believe his arm is structurally sound when I see him go about 4 starts without leaving early. And as for Bailey, well, I've thought each of the last two years were going to be his breakout season. To me, this is it for Bailey with the Reds. If he doesn't make it this year my guess is he is dealt or sent the bullpen.


Overall:

The reds defense is just so far and away superior to anyone else in their division it's almost comical. St. Louis, Milwaukee and the Cubs all look to be varying degrees of bad or terrible on D (depending on how much Berkman, Soriano and Starlin Castro play for their teams), and Milwaukee was the worst in baseball at D last year. This will come in to play more then many think. The Reds have 3 legit gold glove caliber players up the middle in Stubbs, Phillips and Janish. Plus they have two on the corners in Rolen and Bruce, and hell, Votto may get one this year if he continues to improve. This team could very easily have 5 of their starting 8 win gold gloves. On top of that they can hit well (even if they slip a little, and appear to have a solid bullpen). Unless all their starters are simply terrible this team will be solid, and at the very least .500.

[Tadasimha]

95 wins and consecutive Central championships.

They won't be pretty in the early part of the season, but they have an easy schedule starting off so they'll at the top of the division from the start. The pitching will get stronger and stronger as the season goes on and the offense will continue to be as potent as it was last season.

[DirtyBaker]

92 wins, back-to-back NL central champs

[RedsLvr]

80-82.

[TheBigLebowski]

91 wins.

[topcat31]

89 - 73

Slow start with erratic starting pitching. Better as the summer sun shines.



"When all is said and done; there's a lot more said than done."

[will5979]

Being skeptical due to injuries and the past I will go conservative and say...

87-75

May win the divions, may not, but overall it should be a fun summer in the Queen City!

[Who Dey Time]

I'm a little concerned about the early injuries. Fortunately, the Reds early season schedule is a bit forgiving.

I'll go 88-74 and they will be in the race for the NL Central and Wild Card all season long.

[freestyle55]

92 wins. Outside of Votto and Gomes, who had career years? (and let's hope Votto's isn't a career year, dude can rake) Just don't see how we would be worse minus major injuries...

[LeDoux]

87

[BuckeyeRed27]

91 wins

[Captain13]

89 wins and within two games of the playoff line (could be either over or under said line).

[Kingspoint]

88 wins and a Division Title.

[texasdave]

Gimme 90 and another go at the playoffs.

[mu4103]

79-81:
Sorry I think the Reds over-performed last year.

1. I don't think the pitching will hold up.
2. Bruce is being talked about as an MVP candidate. Remember around the All-Star break and for about a month later, some people were calling for him to be benched or sent down. I think he will have a good year, but I don't think he has a proven track record yet.
3. Joey Votto had a career year. He is a legit superstar, but it is not a given he can do that 2 years in a row.
4. The rest of the IF doesn't impress me as standout (I know most would disagree on Phillips).
5. Sorry, I can't see the team winning as long as Johnny Gomes is in LF.
6. Drew Stubbs still has a .330 OBP and hasn't shown much more in the spring.

Expect the Reds to start out slow. I think there will be (and their best hope is) some serious changes around May. I think Bruce will be good in the OF, but Stubbs and Gomes will struggle. Votto should still be solid.

Somebody in the pitching staff really needs to step up and be the ace and a second pitcher is going to need to be right behind him. The bullpen hopefully will be improved, and Chapman could be a major player if the Reds are to repeat or improve. You can't win a Championship without at least 2 standout top-notch pitchers.

I think the team as it is right now is a 79-81 team. If they make some good moves and a couple of guys step up, I could see them in the NLCS and after that, anything is possible. The nice thing for the Reds is they do have some good young talent.

[LetsGoReds11]

91 Wins will win the division

The pitching depth the Reds have will be used all year long.

[Brisco]

I am gonna go with 88 wins and finishing 2 GB for the playoffs this year... maybe I am just hedging my bets, but a sophomore slump for the new Reds would be alright seeing the future we have ahead of us.

[Chris Sabowned]

I'll go for a conservative 86 wins.

[wlf WV]

90 wins NeilHamburger we have potential GG with Hanigan at catcher also,that leaves only LF not having GG caliber defense,amazing.